Still better than the Met Office

Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press
Punxsutawney Phil is held by Ben Hughes after emerging this morning from his burrow on Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney. Phil saw his shadow and forecast six more weeks of winter weather.

Don’t put those cold weather clothes in storage just yet.

Punxsutawney Phil, the internationally known weather prognosticating groundhog, saw his shadow this morning and predicted six more weeks of winter.

Thousands gathered on Gobbler’s Knob in Jefferson County to await the groundhog’s annual prediction. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club said Phil has seen his shadow 98 times since 1887, hasn’t seen it 15 times, and there are no records for nine years.

Read more: http://www.pittsburghpost-gazette.com/pg/10033/1032831-258.stm#ixzz0eOp1FisE

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SandyInDerby
February 2, 2010 2:08 pm
Hank Hancock
February 2, 2010 2:42 pm

Ten reasons why Punxsutawney Phil is a climate skeptic:
1) He wears a fur coat year round demonstrating no belief in global warming
2) His latest research predicts a longer, colder winter (at least six more weeks). Outraged by his prediction, PETA charged that Phil should step down and be replaced by a robot with a suitable operating system to run general circulation models as the basis for future predictions.
3) When shown a photograph of Michael Mann posing with a tree ring and asked what he thought of tree ring dendochronology, he responded “stupid beaver – he cut the dam log too short!”
4) He uses real observational data in his predictions.
5) He always responds to FOIA (Furry Observer of Inclement Atmosphere) requests.
6) He makes no attempt to hide the decline. He says “everyone knows a groundhog’s burrow declines, why hide it?”
7) He is adamant that the solar insolation and cloud variability play a huge role in his observations and being able to predict future climate. This has drawn sharp criticism and ad-hom from AGW believers.
8) His sole use of uncooked observational data demonstrates his lack of faith in the predictive skills of climate models.
9) His methodologies and conclusions have been confirmed by independent researchers (Canada’s Wiarton Willie and Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam). Special thanks to vigilantfish (10:26:48) for bringing this to my attention.
10) His latest prediction was carried by Fox news.

Tim Clark
February 2, 2010 2:46 pm

The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club said Phil has seen his shadow 98 times since 1887, hasn’t seen it 15 times, and there are no records for nine years.
Then he’s appropriately named “Phil”.
He must have fought with a dog those nine years and the dog won.
Incidently, it was reported that his shadow was the second darkest evar since 1887.

JFA in Montreal
February 2, 2010 2:46 pm

The best part of GroundHog Day is watching lovely Andie MacDowell and goofy Bill Murray in the movie of the same name.

Phillep Harding
February 2, 2010 2:48 pm

Holding a critter with chompers the size of a woodchuck up close to my face like that?
Not likely.

wayne ward
February 2, 2010 2:48 pm

Don’t you worry SandyInDerby, my local town (in West Virginia, USA) had a departure of -3 in temperature for January, but you will of course be happy to know that although it’s colder than normal almost anywhere you can think of, January 2010 will be the warmest on record globally… I bet you a groundhog dinner…

February 2, 2010 2:55 pm

Wow and I always thought Groundhog day was a work of fiction, which I can say was a work of art with lots of replay value. Anywho, it’s funny that with all the Science mumbo jumbo the Met Office has, people would rather choose the predictions of an animal over it. Nature > science perhaps?
-Maurizio Maranghi

February 2, 2010 2:58 pm

” …Phil has seen his shadow 98 times since 1887, hasn’t seen it 15 times, and there are no records for nine years.”
For those unknown 9 years, Michael Mann just spliced in data from a groundhog in Ohio.

February 2, 2010 2:59 pm

According to NASA GISS, Phil’s shadow today was the warmest since 1998!

Chris
February 2, 2010 3:12 pm

easy,
becaus hadley is olmost everytime wrong. Thea have to predict dramatic warming with all the ipcc given complications.
never mind, it`s just a kind of business.

RichieP
February 2, 2010 4:01 pm
BOP
February 2, 2010 4:04 pm

vigilantfish (10:26:48) :
THREE groundhogs can’t be wrong!
My God! It IS peer-reviewed!

February 2, 2010 4:25 pm

“Hidethedecline Phil” has seen his own shadow and has some cold and wintery days ahead, and the phrase “climategate” surely greets him every day just like the song “I’ve got you, babe” did for Weatherman Phil in the movie “Groundhog day. 🙂
regarDS

February 2, 2010 4:28 pm

Somehow this seems to fit this thread: click

Editor
February 2, 2010 5:03 pm

Punxatawney.Phil.is.obviously.in.the.pay.of.Big.Oil…

wayne
February 2, 2010 5:23 pm

JonesII (09:49:48) :

Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast has not been Peer Reviewed!

Sure has, Phil’s got lots of peers nearby to review him, same as HadleyCRU.

wayne
February 2, 2010 5:31 pm

“The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club said Phil has seen his shadow 98 times since 1887, hasn’t seen it 15 times, and there are no records for nine years.”

See Dr. Hansen at GISS, he knows how to extrapolate away those pesky missing nine years! (As long as they are within 1200).

February 2, 2010 6:42 pm

Ray (09:21:36) :
Punxsutawney Phil is 36% correct in his predictions… much better than the MET Office.

But worse than chance (when you only have two choices). Silly traditions should just be forgotten, not paraded around.

Jeef
February 2, 2010 7:06 pm

I’m sure I saw this thread last year. Feels like Groundhog Day round here sometimes.
*I got you babe*

Mark.R
February 2, 2010 11:55 pm

most of us kiwis dont know what this Groundhog thing is all about .So you would only see his shadow on a sunny day.

JohnH
February 3, 2010 12:05 am

I wish it had been as warm as that. In fact December and January were the coldest in Scotland since records began.
In 1914!!!!
Thats funny, the GISS records start in 1880 for Glasgow at least.

igi
February 3, 2010 1:05 am

Breaking! news:
Climate skeptic Ron Armstrong of Hoquiam, Washington has today learned from Penn State University that they are exempt from the Freedom Of Information Act and Pennsylvania’ s Right To Know Law
http://www.climategate.com/breaking-penn-state-says-they-are-exempt-from-freedom-of-information-act

yonason
February 3, 2010 6:22 am

In case you’re wondering why the guy holding the rat looks so startled, this photo I stumbled on could explain it.
http://mainehuntingtoday.com/bbb/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/obamagroundhop.jpg
from here.
http://mainehuntingtoday.com/bbb/

the_Butcher
February 3, 2010 8:13 am


Frank K. (11:39:25) :
By the way, someone should check the IPCC reports – they may have used Phil’s research as a reference!

HAHAHAHA
IPCC has their own Phil (pauchauri’s slippery shadow…)

Lexical Tom
February 3, 2010 3:56 pm

Posted this on an earlier thread , but more appropriate here.
I wonder how many U S readers appreciate the extremely rude meaning of the words “gobbler’s knob” in English English?
I won’t explain – a certain snip.