Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press
Punxsutawney Phil is held by Ben Hughes after emerging this morning from his burrow on Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney. Phil saw his shadow and forecast six more weeks of winter weather.
Don’t put those cold weather clothes in storage just yet.
Punxsutawney Phil, the internationally known weather prognosticating groundhog, saw his shadow this morning and predicted six more weeks of winter.
Thousands gathered on Gobbler’s Knob in Jefferson County to await the groundhog’s annual prediction. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club said Phil has seen his shadow 98 times since 1887, hasn’t seen it 15 times, and there are no records for nine years.
Read more: http://www.pittsburghpost-gazette.com/pg/10033/1032831-258.stm#ixzz0eOp1FisE
Could Punxsutawney Phil please tell me if we’re in for a barbecue summer?
REPLY: You aren’t supposed to get hard numbers from this, given that the forecast is using “fuzzy” logic. – A
“fuzzy” logic or perhaps furry logic.
I wonder how the processing power of the met office computer compares with the processing power of a groundhog brain?
I heard that a group of russian marmots had intercepted the tree-mails between Phil and his colleagues. It is quite known that the ground-hog community has conspired with Phil for sometime, prejudicing the outcome to expect more longer winters. The whole ground-hog community benefits by being pampered for a bit longer. Although, some believe an isider ground hog within the tightly knit Puxatawny community exposed the furry Phil as the fraud that he is.
I think you will find that, with value added adjustment, there is no snow, it isn’t cold, and spring is getting earlier and earlier – thus melting the glaciers killing polar bears and causing Antarctic tourists to have to clean their boots to prevent acidification of the ever rising oceans which will first submerge and then dissolve the Maldives.
But if it does turn out to be cold, that is also a typical effect of global warming. Obviously.
“I got you babe…..”
Have other Groundhogs peer-reviewed Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction?
Can he provide the raw data or do we have to really on his homogenized results?
Has he considered the UHI effect?
From the Ontario news service:
If you believe Wiarton Willie, there will be six more weeks of winter. Canada’s most famous weather prognosticating rodent saw his shadow this morning.
Wiarton Willie Festival spokesperson Shane Sargant tells 570 News unlike other years, the prediction kicks off a full week of games, activities, music and food in Wiarton.
Earlier today, both Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam and Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania also saw their shadows, meaning six more weeks of winter.
——
THREE groundhogs can’t be wrong!
Punxsutawney Phil >> East Anglia Phil.
I’ve got this great plan for a Groundhog tax… It’ll make the world a much better and safer place for ourselves and our children…
Yippee!!!! If Punxsutawney Phil would have been on the Pacific Northwest this morning he wouldn’t have seen its shadow, it’s raining here… Spring is coming… better get the tank full on the BBQ.
Ruchard Heg: A Groundhog brain doesn’t run on models so it is by far more accurate that the met office computer.
There is another difference: Groundhog’s brain it’s an animal’s brain not run by animals.
Richard Heg (10:17:50) :
(…)
I wonder how the processing power of the met office computer compares with the processing power of a groundhog brain?
Groundhogs win on optical data processing. A groundhog can recognize its own shadow. The Met supercomputer doesn’t notice its own carbon footprint, nor recognize what bad results look like.
“Well Phil (is he edible?)”
Traditional American folk song:
CoonAZ (09:43:57) :
…….
REPLY: You aren’t supposed to get hard numbers from this, given that the forecast is using “fuzzy” logic. – A
Shouldn’t that be ‘furry”?
Follow this old link if you want a good laugh.
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070201_warming_hibernation.html
Punxsutawney Phil is also a far cheaper means of predicting the weather than the CRU supercomputer, now tera-flopping at an alarming rate.
How much fraud could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck fraud?
PS to non-rodent weather forecasters: my deepest sympathies for your cultural declination.
THIS Phil admits when he doesn’t have data (9 missing years); the OTHER Phil uses secret “infilling” algorithms. Everything is turned upside down…
I thought they replaced Phil with the gopher from “Caddyshack.”
I have no confidence in the predictive skills of that rodent called Phil.
However that groundhog sounds believable.
Time for all the Grounhog deniers to come out and protest. Where’s Mann and Jones when we need them?
Wonder what Algore thinks…
UK Channel 4 news.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/science_technology/climate+email+row+scientists+speak+out/3524137
A rather garbled piece. Is it really saying that Jones work was corroborated by a later study – by Jones?
Climate scientist at centre of email row defends his research
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/02/phil-jones-climate-scientist-hacked-email
vigilantfish (10:26:48) :
“…Earlier today, both Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam and Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania also saw their shadows, meaning six more weeks of winter.
——
THREE groundhogs can’t be wrong!”
Oh no… Not another consensus. If they’re taking money from the IPCC, the next scandal could be just around the corner – Groundhoggate anyone?
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/science_technology/climate+email+row+scientists+speak+out/3524137
….balanced by a live leading item on mainstream UK TV, Channel 4 has Lord Lawson vs DEFRA Chief Scientist. Lord Lawson wins with a points victory and does no end of damage to AGW. It was live so wait awhile for an update or watch repeat on http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1529573111
Cathy (09:27:19) :
“Finally. Research we can trust.”
LOL! Someone should make a poster with Punxsutawney Phil grinning at the camera and the inscription – “Climate research we can trust!” – any photoshoppers out there?
By the way, someone should check the IPCC reports – they may have used Phil’s research as a reference!
Phil, P. (2005) “Winter climate forecast proxies based on mammal shadow observations,” The Punxsutawney Journal of Climate, Vol 7 No. 3.
Well, you will all be pleased to know this: the head of the UK Met Office a few said in a TV interview: “We are pretty good with our short term forecasts of up to five days, not so good with forecasts of a few weeks or months, but very good at forecasting 20-50 years ahead.”
Those unfortunately aren’t his exact words, however this seemed to be the rationale behind him awarding himself a big financial bonus.
As you can imagine the interviewer was more than a little bemused as the country was at a near standstill as the result of an unforecasted severe cold snap.
The point, of course, is how can you possibly say – with a straight face – that you are not very good with a weather forecast of a few weeks or months, but are very good with ones several decades into the future.