Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press
Punxsutawney Phil is held by Ben Hughes after emerging this morning from his burrow on Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney. Phil saw his shadow and forecast six more weeks of winter weather.
Don’t put those cold weather clothes in storage just yet.
Punxsutawney Phil, the internationally known weather prognosticating groundhog, saw his shadow this morning and predicted six more weeks of winter.
Thousands gathered on Gobbler’s Knob in Jefferson County to await the groundhog’s annual prediction. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club said Phil has seen his shadow 98 times since 1887, hasn’t seen it 15 times, and there are no records for nine years.
Read more: http://www.pittsburghpost-gazette.com/pg/10033/1032831-258.stm#ixzz0eOp1FisE
Punxsutawney Phil is 36% correct in his predictions… much better than the MET Office.
More heavy global warming in Aberdeen, Scotland these last few days.
The Met Office confirms that putting the months of December 2009 and January 2010 together gives us the coldest period we’ve had since 1963.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8493129.stm
My own Punxsutawney Phil (my left knee after ACL injury) is still telling us we’ve got worse to come.
Here we have a Phil that is grounded in solid, traditional Earth-science, whose shadow preceeds him… and 6 more weeks of winter.
Finally. Research we can trust.
” …Phil has seen his shadow 98 times since 1887, hasn’t seen it 15 times, and there are no records for nine years.”
Any data on how this correlates with subsequent weather ?
Here’s a regular solar forecaster to the BBC’s weather pages
http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/nottingham/hi/people_and_places/nature/newsid_8306000/8306301.stm
Cool, an animal that can predict the weather better than the Met Office. Has he any offspring that we can send to the CRU?
The Arctic Oscillation is headed back towards record lows, so it seems a safe bet that there will be more winter.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
NCEP agrees. Looks like The White House is going to have a large heating bill this month, as they hammer out Cap and Trade legislation to stop runaway global warming.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html
“Today it was reported that Punxsutawney Phil the famous climatologist groundhog from Pennsylvania will soon begin
his new position as head of the HadleyCRU at EAst Anglia University, replacing the former head Phil Jones, who , it is said, will be departing for his new position at Gobblers Knob.
Experts in the field applauded this move with great excitement, “With the REAL Phil here, perhaps we can get some accurate predictions for a change”. Neither Mr Jones nor the Groundhog were available for comment.
At least this Phil works with the raw data.
Now there is a happy looking groundhog! You can see it in his eyes!
(Do they make a rabies vaccine for groundhogs? Just wondering.)
So I was never really clear on what is the “another six weeks”. Is that six weeks past Feb. 2, or six weeks after the first day of spring, or six weeks past the “average” last day of snow for a given area. It’s kind of muddled in my mind. I mean, honestly, growing up in northern MI if someone told us we only had six more weeks of winter (rather than another 14) we were thrilled!
REPLY: You aren’t supposed to get hard numbers from this, given that the forecast is using “fuzzy” logic. – A
Bernice (09:30:47) :
I’ve discovered that if my maine coon cat – called luxor – goes out his cat flap regularly, it means its cold – he seems to like snow and frost.
As a Pennsylvanian who has kept up with Phil and his predictions, it’s impressive how well he does.
Obviously, the measurement of his accuracy is somewhat suspect. At what location is spring to come or not to come? How is it measured if wintery weather has hung around or if spring-like weather has arrived?
Still, even given those fairly fluid measurements, his “predictions” are pretty accurate, at least for the western-PA area. If he has seen his shadow, there were almost always significant snowfalls after the first day of spring. If he didn’t see his shadow (only four times in my record keeping) then there was not any snow after the first day of spring. (Except for one year up in Erie.)
Punxsutawney Phil’s forecast has not been Peer Reviewed!
“My own Punxsutawney Phil (my left knee after ACL injury) is still telling us we’ve got worse to come.”
I have one of those as well….
I love Ground Hog’s Day. The perennial silliness of it all, no obligation to celebrate, buy gifts or visit relatives, plus the movie, makes it the perfect holiday.
Punxsutawney Phil is obviously not on the payroll!
Calendar wise he can never be wrong if he forecasts 6 more weeks of Winter. 46 days from now is the first day of Spring. And who made this one Groundhog the official one for the entire world the IPCC?
OT.
Statement from CRU about Jones and Wang at http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/CRUstatements/guardianstatement
Ever notice they don’t define “around the corner” as in “if the rodent doesn’t see his shadow he stays out and spring is just around the corner.” I have it on good authority (mine) that it’s just 1 1/2 months away.
Ever notice they read from a pronouncement that likely was written before sunrise?
Ever notice they never have a photo of Phil’s shadow on the ground?
Punxsutawney Phil is in the pocket of big oil. What a shill!
Well, he sure beats the Met Office, which every day has the same forecast that I think I read as a joke on a Bazooka Joe bubble gum comic: “Chili today, hot tamale.”
How big its shadow is going to be if we are heading into an ice age?
Is that a Punxsutawney Phil better known as PPYAD06, the most influential ground hog in the world?
Well Phil (is he edible?) has some competitiion.
The Jan 22 2010 issue of SCIENCE has a front cover picture from Pinar del Rio, in Cuba; and the cover story announces; “A State-of-the-art computer model” that “projects” that global warming “should” cause an increase in the frequency of the most intense western Atlantic hurricanes during the 21st century.
With 9% of the 21st century already in the can, it so far is looking too promising for this presumably peer reviewed state-of-the-art computer model.
Note it is a state-of-the-art model; not to be confused with a state-of-the-science model.
My money is on Phil; (unless he IS edible !)