
Following up on the cold spring story from Friday, one of the favorite mantras of the global warming community has been that global warming brings earlier spring seasons. If a bird shows up earlier than someone in Yorkshire expected, a news story often appears at The Guardian or BBC explaining that it is due to “man made global warming.” A Google search of “global warming early spring” produces more than 300,000 hits.
So what happens when nature refuses to cooperate? Below are some claims from the top ten, interspersed with recent observations from the cold spring season of 2009.
Today’s NCEP forecast for the US – cold across the entire country + Canada + Mexico
Accuweather spring snow forecast through today. I’m guessing that no one is planting crops in Nebraska today.
Global warming causes quakes, early spring
Earthquakes?
Global warming brings early spring to Arctic
Three people based their spring backpacking trip on that theory:
Catlin Arctic Explorer Martin Hartley
Current spring conditions in the Arctic
| Weather |
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-35°C℃ |
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Mild winter rattles Russians : Psychiatrists warn lack of cold, sun, snow lead some into depression
Today’s NCEP forecast for Russia – severe springtime cold
Perhaps all that extra CO2 is being affected by the global recession, and is unable to find employment in it’s normal line of work – trapping heat.
Protesting snowmen on the unemployment lines – H/T to Jennifer Marohasy


outstanding spring day here on the central coast, Cal. Planted the tomatoes a little too early this year (hey, K mart had them on sale), so they weren’t doing so hot at first but now they are really enjoying the weather. Came in to cool off, but now it’s time to get back out there and plant some trees and more tomatoes. I love it here! Don’t envy other parts of the country right now.
Fax to Obama:
http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Fax_to_Obama.pdf
Ed Scott, thanks for the links. Marc Morano was superb! Romm responded ad hominem all the way. I am ashamed of him ‘debating’ this way. Fortunately, the public is not stupid. Result? Another big win for the AGW skeptics.
Partly O/T, yet another misunderstanding of the situation!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6036529.ece
Well im in New Zealand, so were into autumn here. But im a farmer, and i pay close attention to spring balance dates, when grass growth exceeds animal requirements. My income depends on it, the same as any other intensive pastoral based farmer any where in the world does. Im sure there would be accurate records obtainable for this… but its got buggar all to do with atmospheric temperature! Its the soil temperatures that limit spring growth, and one cold rain can undo a month of mild temperatures, and one warm rain can undo a month of frosts.
And no i cant say ive noticed any pattern with the balance date moving forward, 20th September is balance date here, give or take a week… and in recent years its been more give a week.
More on the Wilkins Ice Shelf
This story has been running for some days here:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25292212-12377,00.html
especially on the ABC. I have just heard Dr Ted Scambos, Lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, University of Colorado, give an interview on ABC radio when he conclusively put down the break up of the ice bridge to general global warming and warned of resultant future rising sea levels.
I believe this warrants more comment from some of AW’s experts because I have NEVER EVER heard any other opposing views in the Australian mainstream media.
John Peter (09:42:42) :
This is a March months graph, including this March for central England.
http://i599.photobucket.com/albums/tt74/MartinGAtkins/CentralEngland-March.jpg
February anomalies here.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2009/february/averages.html
UK regional data found here. Not updated to March yet.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html#
I agree with Gary, what warming? my globes are haven’t felt warm for weeks
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>> The Chinese could:
>> 1. Start selling, in all markets, their US Treasury Bonds.
They dare not – it would cause a run on the value of the US dollar, and reduce the value of their immense dollar holdings. They should rather raise the value of the Yuan (allow it to float), which would allow the US (and the UK) to start producing more manufactured goods (they would be more competitive), which is why we should eventually get a shift back to Western manufacture.
The point, in climate terms, is that the economic policy that the West has been chasing for two decades has ensured that more CO2 was released – because we all know that China does not give a damn about emissions. So the politicians go on about taking less flights, using smaller cars and switching the standby on the TV off – when their economic policy has ensured a doubling of CO2 emissions. Hypocritical, is the word.
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John Peter (09:42:42) :
“I was trying to find the British Met Office’s verdict on March’s weather here in the UK and it would seem they have not seen fit to update from February to March”
Me too, but I notice they admit to a minimum at Aviemore of -18.4 C on Feb.9th, which may even be a record, but they don’t say so.
A month earlier, they posted a ‘big freeze round up’ that included: “Parts of southern England have experienced some of their lowest temperatures since 1991” and reported that cold weather payments (to pensioners) were the highest since the scheme was introduced a decade ago.
What they don’t mention is that their general forecast in the autumn was for a ‘mild winter’ – oops…
BTW – is everyone up to speed on how useless wind energy actually is, and why it will precipitate the downfall and destruction of nations? In short, wind energy is so variable that grids cannot utilise the power, not unless there are equivalent normal power stations on ‘spinning standby’ (burning and turning) to take up the slack when the wind drops.
Many people don’t realise this because it is not openly admitted. The BBC for example, being a thoroughbred AGW promoter, omits ‘variability’ from its list of wind power disadvantages. How about that for Green propaganda – just omit the most important item.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/adaptation/wind_power.shtml
Spain (a large wind power provider) nearly lost their entire grid on several occasions over the past few years.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article384768.ece?token=null&offset=12
And this is what happens when a grid goes down – civilisation as we know it ends!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Blackout_of_2003
Even more interesting is the fact that while Denmark has the largest ‘wind carpet’ in the world, DENMARK HAS NEVER USED ANY OF ITS WIND POWER!! Why? Because it is too unreliable.
So what does it do with all that energy? It sells it (at a loss) to Scandinavia, which has abundant hydro energy, which can be turned on and off instantly.
http://www.thomastelford.com/journals/DocumentLibrary/CIEN.158.2.66.pdf
(Also take a look at the wind outages on the graphs. 52 days in one year without any wind power, and 15 weeks below 10% power in another. You cannot run a country on energy supplies like that.)
This is the Inconvenient Truth that Al Gore forgot to tell everyone. He is leading us all down the road to ruin, because a technological society cannot function without reliable energy – we all descend back into the Dark Ages within a couple of weeks.
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“a minimum at Aviemore of -18.4 C”
Not a record, I have now discovered (it’s -27.2, apparently) although it still suggests that this is not going to be one our warmer winters!
“spinning standby”
As I understand it, wind power still saves some energy, as the fuel demand for most generators depends on the load, in the same way that your car needs more gas to get up a hill. Regulation of turbines is through demand valves that control the steam, and a reduction in this demand feeds through to the amount of coal/oil/gas* used to produce the steam. Conservation of energy laws apply, I think!
*Different for nuclear, I believe, which are effectively either on or off.
Re: Richard Heg (08:10:40) :
“The science of phenology.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenology”
The Wikipedia definition of phenology appears to describe nothing more than a system that incorporates different metrics to measure weather events and their impacts. I know that WX is not climate, but neither are the dates that budding and leafing, calving, migratory bird arrivals. or season creep occurred.
Phenological data and Farmers Almanac predictions seem highly correlated. Both are at least as reliable as GC models.
James P,
The point is that if the wind isn’t blowing consistently, the wind generators can’t produce a steady stream of power. This requires that power sources from a “spinning standby” system be available, instantly, to augment the supply when needed.
Nuclear generates power through water conversion to steam, basically like a coal / gas plant. What you don’t have is carbon coming out of the core and into the environment. So even the nuclear plant is going to have to have a spinning turbine on a constant basis to back up the wind turbine. Otherwise, you’re requiring that the turbine come to speed instantaniously, which is going to cause some mechanical issues with torque.
ralph ellis (15:03:39) :
“BTW – is everyone up to speed on how useless wind energy actually is, and why it will precipitate the downfall and destruction of nations? “
Well, California is not a nation, just one state among 50. But wind energy does a pretty good job out here. Crosspatch and I had a discussion on this just a day or so ago on another thread.
The Giga-watt hours generated by wind in California in 2007 amounted to roughly 25 percent of the installed capacity, if it were running full out 24×7.
Mr. Ellis, with all due respect, wind does not affect a large power grid in the manner you described above. Variations in wind power are no different for a large grid than variations in load due to starting/stopping millions of motors or turning on tvs or computers or plugging in 10 million plug-in electric cars. The effect is dampened when there are multiple wind-turbines in different locations.
If one had only one gas-fired power plant, no other power plants, and one large wind turbine on the grid, with the wind turbine supplying 50 percent of the power, then there would be problems.
The key issue is a large sudden imbalance between demand and generation. As one example from my engineering days, a chemical plant near Houston, TX had a large induction motor rated at 10,000 horsepower (roughly 7,600 KW). When we were ready to start it up after some maintenance on the air compressor connected to it, we were required to notify the utility (at that time it was Houston Lighting and Power) and give them half an hour before we hit the start button. Our electrical guy was literally on the phone with HLP, and when they gave the ok, he hit the switch.
What really gave HLP fits was when we had to stop that motor during an emergency. We called them to let them know as soon as we could, but when it tripped off-line they had some problems.
Hope this helps.
For New Zealand, our March 2009 figures from NIWA are:
“Temperatures were cooler than average over most of the country for March. Averaged over the whole month, temperatures were below average (by between -0.5 and -1.5°C) for all of the North Island except for Northland, Bay of Plenty and East Cape and over all of the South Island except for north Canterbury, Otago and Southland (where temperatures were near or slightly below normal). Temperatures in parts of Southern Hawke’s Bay were well below normal (by between -1.5 and -2.0°C). The national average temperature of 15.1°C was 0.6°C below the long-term average for March.”
March was definitely cool in this part of the world.
Interestingly, we had high levels of sunshine:
“Extremely high sunshine totals for March were recorded in the north of the North Island where values were 30% or more above average. A new March record of 268 sunshine hours (144 percent of normal) occurred in Kaitaia. Other areas of New Zealand received above normal (between 110 and 125% of normal) sunshine for the month.”
Further to my earlier comment, HLP always knew when that 7,600 KW motor tripped off-line. Our phone call was a courtesy to explain what happened.
This news fits in well here :
USA: 358 lowest temps and 409 snowfall records broken for week ending Apr 2, 2009
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/7day/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,snow
(mouse over the dots for data)
1) Pielke Sr. also noted the paper in press concerning no trend in earlier spring.
http://climatesci.org/2009/03/30/new-paper-in-press-intercomparison-interpretation-and-assessment-of-spring-phenology-in-north-america-estimated-from-remote-sensing-for-1982-to-2006-by-white-et-al2009/
2) Oregon’s Mt Bachelor has had 492″ of snowfall this season so far, compared to an average of 370″.
If we were to follow the AGW logic, we should be crying for huge changes in human civilization and perhaps demanding a Carbon Non Use Tax. Anyone found using wind power, hydro power, nuclear power and especially, solar power, will be taxed heavily.
Huge Tax incentives for burning hydrocarbons, coal, wood and perhaps even dung. I’m working on a steam powered SUV. After all, steam powered cars were available a century ago just as electric cars were. We will have to do away with white cars and promote black as the color of choice.
We will need more people to populate the new land that will appear as the oceans recede due to glaciation. I imagine the Chunnel will no longer be needed to travel from the UK to France. So rather than halve the population of England, we need to double it. These people can work the new farm land that will be needed to grow GM crops during the shortened growing seasons.
Yup, I can see it all now…
Question for Roger Sowell re California’s wind turbines: Is any kind of electrical storage used to smooth out fluctuations in the wind velocity, and if so, is is batteries or something else? I have seen lots of articles on solar energy, but nothing on how to cope with lack of generation at night, nor how they would be protected from lightning strikes in the SW desert.
A quote from one of the links provided by Mr. Ellis:
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James P also note the economic problems cited.
OT – Did anyone see the WWF ad claiming polar bears are threating extinction and literally 1 minute of a polar bear and its cub on a melting ice berg talking about how they were running out of food and going to die! This was over the top. I sent them an email with my digust, maybe you could do the same?
Commercial Available – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDZjRXk82VQ
Comment From to WWF – http://worldwildlife.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/worldwildlife.cfg/php/enduser/ask.php
Maybe a few emails will let them know that these unsubstantied claims, probobly lies, are over the top.
From the 2004 “wind report” from E.ON I quoteL
http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/EonWindReport2004.pdf
Not made up; cited and referenced.