Spring voting chooses Blue States/Red States

The anamolies are from 4/3 to 4/9; is this a forecast?

I just got back form 4 days of spring break in Steamboat Springs, CO. 🙂 They had 33 inches of now this past Sunday and Monday.
http://www.steamboatpilot.com/news/2009/apr/01/steamboat_snow_levels_above_average/
Current season is in the top 5 of the past 15 and local weather forecaster said the storms in the Pacific are lined up like planes headed for DIA (Denver International Airport).

Yes, Don, it is a forecast. Note that the graphic says “Temperature FORECASTS from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction” (caps mine). The set up is…here is how it’s looking, and here is how it’s been. But “remember – weather is not climate. And computer models should always supercede observation.”

I look at this web site daily. The 7 day forecasts tend to be fairly accurate. Interestingly almost all the continental land areas are forecast to see substantial precipitation, in general. The Amazon Bassin has seen huge rainfall over the last few months, which is forecast to continue. fm

Getting the best snow yet here in NE Oregon- http://www.anthonylakes.com/pin/
and Oregon state says-no more snow tires….

The future historians will name this era as :
The decline and fall of the western civilization.
Chapter I: The Global Warming Hysteria.
Chapter II: Cap and Trade systems and its economic consequences
etc.

I am looking forward to my drive to work in the snow on Sunday morning, could be worse I could be in norfolk, NE instead of Omaha

Its been a cool spring in Texas though we had a sunny winter.
One of our engineers spends summer in Alaska and he said this spring has reminded him of last summer in Alaska – cool and clear.
Our average last frost is the 13 th of March, but we had a heavy frost last week – very late. And the models are showing a possible hard freeze for the 7th.
“ANOTHER DRY WINDY/GUSTY DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
COOLER DRIER WEATHER PREVAILING MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE HILL COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT.”

I suspect the NH will begin to experience cool weather events later and later in the year. Try as they may the AGW crowd will have a hard time explaining cold and snow events not seen so late in the year for a very long time. Maybe even into early summer. Thanks Anthony for staying on top of things.

computer models should always supersede observation.
I like the way you just kinda ease that in at the end. almost blew tea out my nose.

Computer models are not science. They are mathematics and theoretical exercises at best.
Engineers know models are not reality, else why would they need to test the bridge components … LOL.

Thanks to AnthropogenicGlobalWarming (and the PDO) here on the Wet Coast of Canada the local ski resorts are extending the ski season to late April and indeed Blackcomb will be open year round for skiing. For the last several months the daily temperatures have been running about 3 to 4 decrees C below “normal” and April snow storms are becoming the norm.
Oh! for a horrid El Nino.
Does anyone know how to switch the PDO back to warm?

I have for sale excellent plans for igloos: singles, duplexes, and four-plexes.
Looks like we’re gonna need ’em.

The warmers are right…
One year anomaly means little to an environmental pattern. You must look at temperature and environmental changes on a decadel basis to understand the warming trend.
Problem is.. We have seen a different trend now for 10 years.
Sun is still silent, means more cloud cover. Means cooler planet. CO2 means plants grow faster.

Keep up the good work! It’s a shame the politicians wont see sense, or would that stop the ‘green’ taxes?

Snow is predicted for Baseball opening day in Chicago on Monday 4/6. Local elections are on Tuesday.

Nashville, TN forecast is calling for possible snow flurries on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Snow in Tennessee in April? Huh? Where’s that Globull Warming? We need some!!!

Looking at the map I have one question – cooler spring mean later planting of crops, right? Lots of dark blue in the corn and wheat belts. Nobody in the media equates colder weather with smaller harvests. Watch that space.

I live in Austin which is pretty far south. I have not run my AC since we bought the house in October, and it looks like at least another week of AC-free living.

We had a frost this morning north of Seattle. Normally everything has been in bloom for a couple weeks. And our Photinia, which is an evergreen in this climate, dropped all its leaves this winter. It’s recovering, but this is the first winter since I’ve been here (2002) that it’s ever dropped more than just a few leaves. And our Camelias still haven’t bloomed, they’re usually done by now.

Jean Meeus (08:10:21) :
Again those “anamolies”!
Don, it’s anomalies. Think about the word ‘abnormal’.
————
Could it be “analies”? Think of ‘anal’. A good definition could be:
analies: which referers to the pain induced by reading bad climate change science.

I think you could take a little stock in that model because it only predicts a week ahead and not 10 to 100 years like the IPCC’s, and the model’s not basing on possibly flawed data either.
It looks like a cold one, but remember it’s just temperature departure, so areas usually in the 80’s may just be at a still warm temp. in the 70’s, but even then it should make a dent in the monthly global temp. anomaly if it’s enough below average.

dkemp:
It does not matter how much you heat CO2 or whatever gas in the atmosphere, it can not hold it enough time, it goes up and gives its heat off to the space.
May I remember that the earth it is not “closed” not covered with a ceiling?

Well Loveland ski area (just west of Denver near the continental divide) is currently posting an expected closing date of May 4, it will be fun to watch when it actually closes.
http://www.skitown.com/resortguide/stats.cfm/co23/Loveland
I remember a decade or so ago they were still doing some unofficial skiing near Loveland basin in June and July. The resort was officially closed but you could hike into snow fields and get in a short run in the height of the summer. I also have a friend that got caught in a blizzard on Loveland pass on July 4 weekend years ago, so it can snow any day of the year above about 8000 ft altitude here.
Latest historical snow fall here in Denver metro is the first week of June, and earliest is the first week of September so the snow free window here in the city is only about 8-9 weeks a year. The way these little snow storms have been rolling through every few days lately we might have a good chance of moving those dates a few days.
Snow from the last storm is still melting, and we expect the next to arrive this evening or tomorrow.
Lack of snow here and in Utah has more to do with drought than heat. If the wind patterns do not carry moisture into the intercontinental mountains we can have very dry winters. Sometimes they are very dry and very cold, and other times they can be very dry and warm.
This news piece is attaching global warming to an issue that has been well known since the 1970’s. The ski areas already are doing artificial snow making on the lower slopes (and have been for decades) and have been talking about local water storage and recycling that snow melt with impoundment ponds for years. I see that “study” as a fishing expedition for funding for more studies or to justify plans already in place to store water, and just make it easier to get it past the local governments and water law folks.
Larry

@crosspatch & Roger Sowell
Following is an internal “pat ourselves on the back” news release at our company. I have no idea if a similar study would reveal problems in California’s modeling.
BC STUDY LEADS NEBRASKA OFFICIAL TO REVERSE WATER USE DECISION
4/2/2009
The director of the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources Brian Dunnigan announced on March 30 that he would reverse his decision to restrict water use in the lower Platte River Basin. Earlier in the year, the department had issued a preliminary determination that the river was “fully appropriated,” which would limit use and prohibit any additional surface water rights, well permits or new irrigation in the region.
Hundreds of farmers and others criticized the ruling, as it would severely limit water supply that reaches approximately one third of the state. The state’s Natural Resources Districts called for a technical and regulatory review of the data, methods, approach and modeling used to support the preliminary determination. Brown and Caldwell was awarded the project, and the findings led to the reversal of the preliminary determination. The review was led by Julie Wright (Phoenix), Matt Lindburg (Denver) and Brent Cain (Sacramento) with assistance from national modeling expert Frank Schwartz of Ohio State University.
The team found several misapplications of the rules and regulations, a misinterpretation of the method for calculating crop water needs and a gross over-estimate of groundwater pumping that was carried forward 25 years into the future in the groundwater model. A report was submitted as evidence and Julie Wright presented the findings at a public hearing, after which the state corrected the errors in calculations, re-ran the model and re-evaluated the water supplies in the basin.
The chairman of the Nebraska Legislature’s Natural Resources Committee agreed with the ruling, saying, “Information questioning the accuracy of the scientific methodology used was provided at the hearings. The Director should be commended for considering and using that information to reverse his decision, which was based on an erroneous method in the initial study.” This marks the first time the state has reversed a preliminary determination.

Last year Steamboat set their all time record snow fall: 489 inches. They average 331, so that represents 50% over average. They are sitting at 389 inches this year, 58 inches over average, only three years out of a very severe drought. They’ll surely break 400 inches.
I’m going up to Copper Mountain Sunday. They’re 11 inches over average with another foot expected this weekend.
Breckenridge, right on the other side of the mountain from Copper Mountain, is at 269 inches, about 10% below average for them, but they still have a few weeks to go, so they’ll probably hit their average.
Wolf Creek is at almost 400 inches as noted, but they are actually a bad example to use as snowfall variance in the southern mountains is very high. Wolf Creek average 465 inches, too. Last year was over 500 though they stopped adding to the total at 492 or so (not sure why). The year before was under 400, and the year before that 540 inches.
Every indication I have from people that have been here for a long time is that I picked a good time to learn. 😉
Mark

Oh, and Loveland and Arapahoe Basin both compete to be the first resort to open every year. They typically both get cold enough to start making snow in September, with opening dates in mid-October. A-Basin, however, often stays open well into June and even closed on July 4th several years ago. It was, fittingly enough, snowing the day they closed that year.
Mark

Since we’re being anecdotal today.
Here in Western Colorado, the question the last few years is WHEN are we going to lose all our fruit. Last year it was April 13, and we lost EVERYTHING, peaches, plums, apples, pears and of course, the apricots, even the lilacs! This year it was last week, hopefully just the apricots.
Last year we were skiing at Beaver Creek with 17 inches of new snow mid April. So we leave the studded tires on now til the end of April. We had to buy an SUV last January because we just couldn’t get over the mountains without 4wd and studs. This year we put studs on two vehicles. In 25 years here we got by without studded tires, (except for totaling two cars on ice and another on an elk).
I wouldn’t say the CLIMATE here has really changed, the four seasons are still Cold, Wind, Dust, and Hunt. but the WEATHER matters and it has been miserable. So many cloudy days! (Cosmic Rays from the quiet sun?

How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?

At Snoqualmie Pass Summit (Elv 3020 ft, I-90 in WA) there was about 100″ of uncompacted dry snow on the ground in mid-December 08. Then 19″ of rain fell in 36 hours causing massive flooding throughout western WA. The snow depth was reduced to about 40″. Now there is 114″ of compacted wet snow on the ground following several feet if new snowfall in the past 5 days with no end in sight.
As a long time skier (65 years) I know that the current weather conditions parallel those during the late 60s and early 70s when it was really cold and snowed like hell all winter. We skied top to bottom of the International Run at Alpental Ski Area (Snoqualmie Pass) on 7/4/73 a 2200 vertical feet descent to the base area at 3150 base elevation. There was still 5 feet of snow at the bottom of the run.

dkemp (08:27:19) :
If you really want to confuse the AGW people, simply learn and start using the correct terminology. God knows they don’t. For instance, “impacts or doesn’t impact long-wave radiation”. Long-wave tells me absolutely nothing, long compared to what? Microwave? I don’t think so. Try “CO2 absorption/emission characteristics in the IR spectral region”. Instead of “three limited ranges of long-wave”, try “three (really? I thought it was only 2) discreet IR wavelengths”. Instead of “water vapor overlaps with CO2” try “H2O interferes with the CO2 absorption frequencies”.
BTW, water liquid and water ice are also present in the atmosphere with varying temporal and spatial distributions, and they also absorb in the IR region, which only serves to multiply the number of IR absorption bands for atmospheric water, which, as far as I know, have not all been identified positively yet. And don’t forget about temperature shifting of absorption frequencies and pressure broadening. And if water has condensed around a nucleus of some other molecule or particle, you have even more absorption frequencies.
By this point in the conversation they should already being calling you names and/or running away to sulk.

Gordon
Yes I do, but it will take me another 15-20 years to make it happen ;). However, if the Sun stays in its current quiet mode, it might take me a little longer.
Bill

Flanagan (11:20:48) :
“How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?”
The same point that AGW true-believers have when publishing their “stuff.”
What is good for the goose, surely is good for the gander?

Who you gonna believe, the computer models or your lying eyes?

Off Topic
Link at: http://hotair.com/archives/2009/04/03/cap-and-trade-gets-big-pushback-in-senate/
Cap and trade gets big pushback in Senate
Barack Obama suffered a major defeat in his quest to impose a cap-and-trade system on the US energy sector last night, as the Senate formally rejected any attempt to pass such a scheme through budget reconciliation rules. In fact, two-thirds of the Senate voted against such a move, with 26 Democrats crossing the aisle to protect the filibuster for cap-and-trade legislation (via The Corner):
Please pass Al Gore a Valium — and better make it a double — because his cap-and-trade dreams just took a dive in the U.S. Senate. In a vote late Wednesday, no fewer than 26 Democrats joined all 41 Republicans to insist that any new cap and tax on carbon energy would require at least 60 votes.
Tennessee Republican Lamar Alexander called it “the biggest vote of the year” so far, and he’s right. This means Majority Leader Harry Reid can’t jam cap and tax through as part of this year’s budget resolution with a bare majority of 50 Senators. More broadly, it’s a signal that California and East Coast Democrats won’t be able to sock it to coal and manufacturing-heavy Midwestern states without a fight. Senators voting in favor of the 60-vote rule included liberals from Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia. Now look for Team Obama to attempt to impose cap and tax the non-democratic way, via regulation that hits business and local governments with such heavy costs that they beg Congress for a less-harmful version

As I’m sure the pro-AGW mantra will claim that above average snow is consistent with the models, can we get them to show this as a benefit for AGW as Australians who are visiting the Rocky Mountains/Alaska (me in May) rarely have the opportunity to see snow.

Flanagan (11:20:48) :
How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?
To bug you, Flanagan, why else? Reading comprehension is a good skill to have. Try it sometime.

Despite another big snowfall year and cold spring here in NH the voters have elected a complete slate of AGW alarmists to congress the senate and the governor’s office. Cognitive dissonance abounds.

A near miss – the Gore effect nearly gets Vegas in April.
Snow hit parts of southern Nevada this aft (and not far from Las Vegas according to the radar).
http://www.accuweather.com/radar-state.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&zipcode=89101&metric=0&site=NV_&anim=1
Yup, Gore was in town today.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/apr/03/gore-technology-key-economic-turnaround/

“University of Colorado-Boulder geography professor Mark Williams said Monday that the resorts should be in fairly good shape the next 25 years.”
Really, quoting CU professors on anything serious is the moral equivalent of beating up on women and small children.
We can’t even get rid of Ward Churchill, after 6 or 7 faculty committees found him guilty of plagiarism and deliberate falsification of history (not to mention his phony claim to be an Indian).
As elsewhere, the ski resorts are in great shape and a major storm is moving in now (Friday pm), with blizzard conditions fcst for Denver.

Al Gore:
“Without sustained action, he warned, temperatures could rise 11 degrees in the next 100 years with catastrophic results as ice and snow melt at unprecedented rates, raising the level of the ocean while creating droughts devastating to agriculture and promoting the spread of tropical diseases out of the tropics.”

Now its 11 degrees!? WUWT???
Gets better everyday… When does it finally get to a point where people just say “look, your out of your cotton pickin’ mind!” ??

Anthony,
Speaking of temperatures, Dr. Spencer posted the March update:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Speaking of anecdotes, my informants tell me that business receipts are down 30% this winter at Aspen. It has nothing to do with the snow, and everything to do with the ECONOMY.
Someday soon, people will again vote their pocketbooks. I feel sure of that. When it happens, AGW will be consigned to the dustbin of history.

O/T Anthony
WSJ April 3, p. A17 Opinion piece by F. James Sensenbrenner (R., Wisc)
“Technology is the Answer to Climate Change” . . .
. . . as opposed to transfering our wealth to China, India, etc. as they are demanding if the world (UN) demands they cut CO2
It will be easier to say “let’s forget the whole thing!”

Squidly (14:23:23) : “…temperatures could rise 11 degrees in the next 100 years…”
Was that °C or °F?

Randall (14:29:40) :
It’s funny that skiing is not vilified by environmentalists. You drive up to the mountain, park, and go up and down all day then drive home. A lot of fossil fuels are burned to enable this.
Oh my, the resorts go out of their way to make the case they are green. There are at least a few that are claiming 100% green powered, which basically means they pay more for the same electricity than the rest of us. Oh yeah…
Mike D. (14:49:41) :
Speaking of anecdotes, my informants tell me that business receipts are down 30% this winter at Aspen. It has nothing to do with the snow, and everything to do with the ECONOMY.
I did Aspen (Ajax mountain) a few weeks ago. The town was dead. The mountain was empty, though Ajax is apparently not the busiest anyway (it is very steep). On the bright side, we got into Ruth’s Chris for dinner without a problem and only had to pay one cover charge in all the bars we visited. That bar was the only one that had a crowd (they were packed… some hoosier bar with a band, can’t recall the name).
Mark

“When you choose to live in the desert you should expect to have dry weather.”
I live in Northern California. Not a lot of desert around here. But even so, looking over geological time, California has experienced droughts that have lasted for hundreds of years and we will again. Many Sierra Nevada lakes were tens of meters lower in level than they are today … and not so long ago, either. The wood is still there, thirty or more feet under water, still where it was growing when it was dry land and had been for the several hundred years those trees were growing there.
But you are right. Santa Cruz county wanted to build a desalination plant but it was not approved because it would “encourage development”. So the people deliberately hamstring the economy, prevent growth, and then complain that there are no jobs for their kids. It is just beyond belief.

I continue to advocate the transport of excess water (from flooding areas) to dry areas (Southwest states). It seems a shame to watch all that perfectly good river water do flood damage, then run out into the ocean, when 1/3 of the land area of the U.S. could really benefit from having it.

The problem is getting it there. We already use a huge amount of energy in this country to move water around. Water is pumped out of the ground, treated, stored, distributed and the waste treated and effluent disposed of using energy. How do you propose getting water from a flood area in one drainage basin to another without using energy to get the water over the drainage divide?
If we get serious with nuclear power, that might be an option but nuclear power might also allow desalinization on a massive scale and movement of that much water across land might not be needed. Water could be recycled easier if the salts can be removed. That is basically the problem with water treatment effluent; it might be clean enough to drink but it is also loaded with salts. Nuclear plants powering flash desalinization when load is low at night could generate quite a lot of fresh water for people and agriculture.

Yep….. here in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical North Queensland, Australia to be exact.
The nights are cool, while the stars hang like crystal jewels in the black velvet of the heavens. The lazy days are warm and sunny, beneath the great blue bowl of the sky that streches overhead, from horizon to horizon….. A typical harsh Queensland tropical winter approches.
It’s tuff. But somebody has gotta live here 🙂

crosspatch,
click on this link to see my proposed energy source.
http://energyguysmusings.blogspot.com/2009/02/wind-water-farms-and-power-generation.html
Nuclear power is not the way to go for many reasons.

Here in Wisconsin I have recently found that even my personal friends who are global warming proponents are having a hard time arguing that AGW is real. There is nothing like the harsh reality of six months of colder than normal temperatures and above average snow fall to wake people up to the questionable tenants of AGW. Even the hot air of Al Gore is not going to be able to stop this avalanche of eye opening bad weather.

rss is also out!
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_2.txt
looks like both satellites showed some drop this past month.

WakeUpMaggy (17:41:21) I noticed the same muddy red rain this evening, and still ongoing, apparently on the otherside of McClure Pass from you. Actually, I have never seen it for more than a few minutes, when it has been really dry and then it starts to rain. In the past the rain has cleansed the atmosphere in short order. Today, is by no means dry, 10″ of wet snow 6am-1pm, then four hours of rain snow mix, with a 20 minute break. Then tonight it has been a muddy rain for almost three hours. Just drove 5 miles on paved country roads, windshield wipers moved muddy water with each stroke, pickup looks like it was on muddy dirt tracks. My leather jacket has streaks of dirt rolling off the shoulders from being in the rain for a couple of minutes. Seems unusual, even the amount of water.

Has anyone noticed that the “0” line on these RSS (graphs see TLT TMT graphs below at BOTTOM of web page), left side “0” are NOT on the same level as right side “0” giving the impression that the trend is much greater than should be? Note that the higher troposphere graphs are in sync (where there is no trend). Test it yourselves with a ruler. See what RSS has to say about that!
http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html#msu_amsu_trend_map_tlt

“Nuclear power is not the way to go for many reasons.”
Well, I believe wind definitely isn’t the way to go for any reliable energy. Wind potential is vastly overrated for one thing. You are going to need something that can move HUGE amount of water. You aren’t going to get wind power to move enough water to make a difference.
A nuclear plant could use a three-stage cooling system with the tertiary coolant being the very water you are moving. It could run 24x7x365 in any weather conditions. You don’t have to worry about ice, wind, tornadoes, or long periods of calm taking our your ability to pump water.
But if you REALLY want to produce something that could make a huge difference in this country, I have an idea for a “load leveling” system that makes a house or a commercial building appear as a constant load. You would basically design it with a storage system as you would an off-grid building but the storage doesn’t need to be as large. When load comes up during the day and exceeds your charging current, you begin to draw from battery to make the difference up. When load comes back down below the charging current, the batteries begin charging. It also lends itself well to auxiliary power input from local wind or solar sources. But the idea is a constant current load on the grid 24×7 so the building appears as a “base load” rather than a “peak load”. It also gives you some insulation against brief outages. The storage shifts a portion of the daytime peak into the overnight hours. This allows base load plants to work at peak efficiency without needing to bring less efficient “peaker” plants online during the day. It also allows you to store nuclear and hydro generated power at night for use during the day but doesn’t need to be as large as a completely off-grid system.

Steve Keohane (19:17:06) :
WakeUpMaggy (17:41:21) I noticed the same muddy red rain this evening, and still ongoing, apparently on the otherside of McClure Pass from you.
We were searching for a forest fire as we had never EVER seen such a thick occlusion from anything but a big fire before, without a huge west wind. But of course, we are so isolated and so poor there is no local news available on radio or tv.
All that dirt is cloud seeding the blizzard for Denver tomorrow. A few days ago the winds of 75mph blew all the dirt off my field. Today I got a little of Arizona’s dirt for my garden.
I was hoping the jet stream dumped some Redoubt ash on us but it was just Arizona.:)

Ben Lawson (17:54:37)
Calling someone you admire a pig is quite strange.
Seriously, you must be a dour sort. Sense of humor?
Appreciation of irony? Apparently not.
Disappointing and curious, I think.

Ben Lawson.
“(quoting me) “What is good for the goose, surely is good for the gander?” is exactly wrong. Hold yourselves to a higher standard if you want respect.”
Respect is something one earns. Wanting it or craving it is never the way to earn it. It is earned by doing the right thing and the right time, without regard to the consequences or the cravens who take potshots from the sidelines, especially those who hide behind a sorry excuse for science.
Practicing proper science, as Dr. Richard Feynman so eloquently stated it, would go a long way toward earning some respect for your side, the AGW proponents. That would include such things as carefully measuring the data, providing all the data in a completely transparent manner, drawing logical and supportable conclusions based on sound physics and math, stating the areas of uncertainties, and how those would impact the conclusions.
And yes, what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Why shouldn’t WUWT or any other blog publish cold events as they occur? Are you advocating censorship?
Speaking (writing, actually) only for myself, I could care less if anyone respects me or not. My concern is keeping the policy-makers from heading down the wrong path, wasting trillions of dollars (and other currencies) on a ideologically-driven, scientifically-unsupportable movement to punish affluent Western societies for having had the resources and opportunities to build a better world.
As I wrote elsewhere, Western man has done more good in this world with energy and ingenuity than the liberal idealogues will ever admit. Obama got one thing right thus far, and that is that we should be willing to extend a helping hand to others. But that help is provided by energy, and comes in the form of using energy. As E.M. Smith wrote on his chiefio blog, there is and never will be a shortage of energy. He is right.
And because there will never be an energy shortage, if and when the Earth is ever in dire need of reducing excessive air temperatures, or the opposite, severe cold, the engineers will step up and get the job done. If the AGW proponents turn out to be correct in their position, in perhaps 10 or 20 or 30 years, there will be plenty of time to make adjustments. As I have written before, there is no technical challenge to adjusting the atmosphere’s composition with respect to any component gas. We have all the knowledge we need, right now, to remove 100 ppm or more of CO2 or any other gas within a very short time frame.
When (I should say, IF) the first non-floating polar ice slides off into the ocean, and the sea level rises that first centimeter, call me. Let me know. At that point, the engineers will stop the ice slides and fix any other problems that require fixing, and nobody need panic. Impossible, you say? Hardly. Talk to some engineers sometime.

O/T The News Release of the USGS doesn’t include a time frame but
the dates 1940-2005 should ring bells.
HEADLINE: New USGS Study Documents Rapid Disappearance
of Antarctica’s Ice Shelves
TITLE: “Coastal-Change and Glaciological Map of the Larsen Ice Shelf Area,
Antarctica: 1940-2005”
See here: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2186

Roger Sowell (21:30:47) : –
“And wind does and will work. Have a little faith in the engineers!”
I’m not sure what you’re getting at here. I am quite happy to accept that engineers can make wind generation more efficient. However, even the most brilliant engineer in this field can’t make power when there is no wind at all and, at least here in the UK, the coldest parts of winter coincide with large steady high pressure areas sitting over the country.
Whilst I’m not particularly a cheerleader for nuclear energy but baseload has to be supplied from somewhere. Ideally it should come from a variety of sources. However, the problem we have here is that, whilst we are sitting on hundreds of years supply of coal, our government has been taking too much notice of Hansen and seems unwilling to allow us to start replacing our life-expired coal-fired generating capacity. Instead we are putting up gas-fired power stations which leaves us dangerously reliant on imports from Russia to keep our grid alive. If they turn the supply off (and history shows that that scenario is not that unlikely) we could be in trouble without another alternative.

Warm=bad, cold=good.
Yesterday I watched a documentary entitled “Global Warming”. They have shown climatic changes throughout the Earth history and somehow managed to link every warming event with mass deaths of species and catastrophs. There was not a single mention of mature thriving under warm climate. There was not a single mention about the possible impact of glaciations or even Snowball Earth on species wellbeing.
When they got to the end of the last ice age (11.500 yrs ago), it was linked to the death of big mammals and woolly mammooths. There was a guy in the cave showing, that the pre-11.500 layers were full of bones and teeth and after there was nothing. And another guy talked about corals growing quicker in the warm periods and showed (IMO quite shamelessly) that in 1725 (LIA, anyone?) the corals grew much slower and implied, that the recent quick growth is a very bad thing… I waited for some more coral info, perhaps about the time of Medieval optimum, but nothing was given.
And as an icing on the cake, there was Lonnie Thompson darkly musing about these pesky Chinese, who abandoned their bicycles and now aspire to drive cars on 6-way highways…

As predicted by top scientists, more bad news for the Colorado ski industry due to global warming. After yesterday’s dump, Wolf Creek Ski Area now has received 410 inches of snow with only 10 feet of snow on the ground. Sweltering spring time temperatures are kicking in at 10F (-12C.)
http://www.wolfcreekski.com/snow.asp
We know from official reports that the Arctic melt season has begun at -38C, so imagine how fast the snow must be melting in the Rockies at -12C!

“I am quite happy to accept that engineers can make wind generation more efficient. However, even the most brilliant engineer in this field can’t make power when there is no wind at all and, at least here in the UK”
That is one of the problems. The other problem is that the estimated energy potential has been hyped beyond all possible reality by the wind power advocates to the point where most wind generation hasn’t approached even 10% of promoted “potential”.
Notice that you can not find figures for actual wind generated kilowatt hours anywhere. You CAN fund numbers for “capacity” installed. But the “capacity” numbers have been inflated to garner support for the projects and are falling well short of those numbers in actual generated power.
If you are going to start pumping water around, people are going to start to rely on that supply. If people are relying on the supply you need a reliable way to provide it. Wind is not reliable.
I could provide a reasonable estimate of what grid demand for power is going to be next Thursday at 3pm. I can NOT give a reliable estimate of what wind generation will be providing next Thursday at 3pm. I can give an estimate of the nuclear generation next Thursday at 3pm. Wind can never be relied upon to give any predictable amount of energy to the grid at any specific time. Wind is a “nice to have” addition to the grid when it is available that can allow us to reduce fossil fuel use when it is available but it is not a replacement for the fossil fuel plants that must still be available when wind is not.
How many windmills does it take to power a single electric steel mill?

Wow this is working into a monster storm. Here in East Nebraska we have winds from the East averageing in the 20mph range and some gusts hitting 60. I was looking at the map and noticed that this stom has 4 total fronts, and it apears to have a second swirl like there was a second smaller low pressure system nestled into the first.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/index_large.html?from=hp_main_maps
I did save the picture and I imagine the link will change over time

Roger Sowell (09:04:51) :
“My experience with wind and other renewables is that each has its place, each has a degree of reliability. With proper storage, wind can be made reliable for a few days; with longer storage increasing the average cost. On another thread, I advocated for wave power and ocean current power for the U.K., as there is plenty of both and they are much more reliable than wind.”
Very true – the river Severn for example has one of the largest tidal differences in the world. Unfortunately the same people who argue against almost any kind of development of alternative energy sources also argue against harnessing this as it may have an adverse impact on wading birds etc.
“As for natural gas dependency, has U.K. considered importing LNG, from various countries? If it were up to me, I would not rely on one foreign source of energy, even if it is cheap and convenient via pipeline.”
Recently the first major shipment of LNG came into port, to a chorus of disapproval from … guess who – see above!
“The proper solution (IMHO), is to elect MPs who will promote coal.”
We have many MPs (particularly in the governing Labour Party) who, one might consider, should be supportive of a thriving domestic coal industry. Sadly, they have more interest in toeing the party line and keeping their jobs than in doing the right thing. Also, of course, successive governments have handed over more and more of our decision making powers to an unelected dictatorship (aka the European Union) which certainly doesn’t have our national interests at heart.
PS If I could only master the art of italics on here this would be a whole lot easier to read, so apologies to all.

Ellie in Belfast (10:12:48) :
I’m sorry but I simply do not buy your argument about wind power. The point I was making is that the times of high pressure in the winter are the times when the temperature is at its lowest and therefore when the power demand is at its highest.
Having considered further though, and taking Roger’s point about engineers in particular, if those guys could crack the storage issue, that would definitely make a difference. Moving lakes works – we should do more of that for example, but there will, I’m sure, be a more efficient solution along before too long.
As for gas – you’re right of course, it’s just that we in the UK don’t actually do much of that. In fact we don’t seem to do much of any of the other things you mention, all of which are good. We simply sign more contracts with foreign governments to import more energy, thus putting us in more peril for the future.

“California continues to face snow shortage:”
Roger,
The way I understand it, even if California had adequate snowpack, they do not have enough catchments and reseviors to store the extra water -much of the snowmelts will end up in the Pacific. The Greenies have made sure of this.
Also, Senator Boxer and Feinstein have put the kabosh on using the Mohave for solar panels and windmills. So much for alternative energy. Hope there are not any heatwaves in Cali this year.
The Left does a lot of talking, not much else.

Mr. Green Genes,
LOL… that did not work! re the italicizing and bold.
maybe this link will explain better: (see Physical styles)
http://www.w3schools.com/html/html_quick.asp

JPK (11:20:35) :

The subject of new dams in California is given much study, and apparently there are few suitable canyons available that can be dammed and used as lakes. The ideal canyon is deep and wide, with a narrow mouth, and extends for miles.
Hence, my proposal to pump water from the Missouri River and Mississippi River during spring flooding, uphill and into the Colorado River tributaries. The existing lakes Powell and Mead can store a lot of water, and generate power when the water is released.
Even without the Mojave desert, there is a lot of land available for solar power plants. There are two other major wind corridors in Altamont Pass, and near Palm Springs. Tehachapi is near Mojave, but it is unclear to me how much of that is off-limits to windmills.
Our last critical heat wave was Sept 2 and 3, 2007. We were lucky, as that was Labor Day weekend and the system made it through ok. Had that been on normal work days, we would have had trouble. Since then, the weather has cooperated, and we have built more power plants. We are in pretty good shape for this summer, according to our utility planners. Also, the recent rains and snows in the Northwest have added to the hydroelectric availability, from where we import power.
The situation in three or four years may be grim, though, given a new development in obtaining permits to build new power plants. A state judge ruled late in 2008 that the pollutant permit system is invalid in the Los Angeles area (SCAQMD) and new power plants are on hold until this is resolved. The case is being appealed, and new legislation will be introduced to allow critical public services to be constructed.
The greenies are livid. Their attorneys (NRDC, National Resources Defense Council) filed the lawsuit; while they are ecstatic that they won, they are plenty unhappy that the realists are appealing and seeking legislative solutions. NRDC also filed a similar lawsuit in Federal court, and that one has not been decided.

Roger, many thanks.

Mr. Green Genes,
You are welcome. Smokey and E.M.Smith and others showed me how to do this stuff a few months ago when I first discovered WUWT. Happy to pass it on.

Adolfo Giurfa
Costs per kwh are interesting, and debatable. They also change over time with several factors (fuel price changes, plant is paid for, maintenance costs increase, etc).
But, typically we see at the moment that unsubsidized, new, nuclear is the most expensive at 30 to 40 cents, wave is too early to tell (has not yet entered the mass production and economy of scale effects) but will likely come in around 10 to 12 cents, wind is around 4 to 9 cents depending on how steady the wind is, solar may be 20 to 30 cents, natural gas is around 7 to 9 cents (with natural gas at $7), and coal is around 8 cents unless carbon capture and sequestration is required, then it is around 12 cents.
All these are subject to great debate, as I said. The utility or generating plant owner may have higher or lower requirements for borrowing money, debt and equity financing, for example.
I try to use consistent financial criteria, such as capital cost, historic construction time, construction loan interest rate, debt/equity financing ratio, cost of debt (long-term bond interest rate), cost of equity (preferred stock paying a consistent annual dividend), then adjust each technology’s output according to realistic and not optimistic percentages.
On that basis, nuclear generates at around 90 percent on-stream, but cannot follow the load.
Natural gas generates at around 95 percent, but must be reduced as it is one of the few that can follow the load.
Coal runs very high also, at more than 90 percent for a baseload plant.
Solar thermal can only generate around 25 percent, perhaps 40 to 50 percent with thermal storage.
Solar photovoltaics generate only about 25 percent.
Wind in California generates about 25 percent, other areas may have higher or lower depending on the wind.
Wave is expected to generate at around 75 percent, again depending on location.
Ocean current is expected to generate close to 95 percent, but no one really knows yet how corrosion and maintenance will impact that figure.
Geothermal runs at high capacity in California, typically over 90 percent.
Bio-mass power can run at 90 percent or more, and does in California.
I recommend Severance’s paper on nuclear plant costs, and for a methodology for evaluating all power generation projects on a consistent basis.
see This Link

@Mark_0454 (18:38:49) :

Any micro-nuclear power plant must be approved and receive a license for construction and operation from the NRC. From NRC’s website,
“The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was created as an independent agency by Congress in 1974 to enable the nation to safely use radioactive materials for beneficial civilian purposes while ensuring that people and the environment are protected. The NRC regulates commercial nuclear power plants and other uses of nuclear materials, such as in nuclear medicine, through licensing, inspection and enforcement of its requirements.”
“The Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended, requires that civilian uses of nuclear materials and facilities be licensed, and it empowers the NRC to establish by rule or order, and to enforce, such standards to govern these uses as “the Commission may deem necessary or desirable in order to protect health and safety and minimize danger to life or property.” ”
http://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc.html
Getting a micro-nuke design approved and licensed would take years, if such approval were ever issued, and ensuring the public safety from one of those would pose serious problems. IMHO, about the only good thing about a 1200 MW nuclear power plant is that it is huge, heavy, all in one place, and can be guarded fairly easily. The suitcase-sized micro-nukes are likely never to meet the NRC standards, and as such are very likely just a dream. I may be proven wrong, but nuclear fissionable materials are just too dangerous to ever be allowed to proliferate as micro-nuclear proponents would like.

Roger,
as usual lots of interesting information to digest.
Thanks too for the html primer. I must have a go at bold and italics from your easy link. Lack of time (to find out/understand how) has been a problem but seems easy.

Ellie in Belfast,
Top o’ the mornin’ to you, lassie! (I know, it’s afternoon in the Emerald Isle, but we are still shaking off the early morning freeze here on the Left Coast! )
That little html primer is a gem. I love the words across the top: “Print it, fold it, put it in your pocket.”
Here is another favorite website, for Irish sayings:
http://tacomaweekly.tripod.com/Irish-Quotations.html

Roger, I’m not in the energy business but work on the periphery of it and sometimes know where to put my hands on useful facts. I’ll drop you a direct email with more information if you like.