Global Warming and “The Early Spring”

Guest post by Steven Goddard
https://i0.wp.com/www.shawnee.edu/gov/usa/news/graphics/SnowFlowers.jpg

Spring Bloom

Following up on the cold spring story from Friday, one of the favorite mantras of the global warming community has been that global warming brings earlier spring seasons.  If a bird shows up earlier than someone in Yorkshire expected, a news story often appears at The Guardian or BBC explaining that it is due to “man made global warming.”  A Google search of “global warming early spring” produces more than 300,000 hits.

So what happens when nature refuses to cooperate?  Below are some claims from the top ten, interspersed with recent observations from the cold spring season of 2009.


Today’s NCEP forecast for the US – cold across the entire country + Canada + Mexico

Man-made global warming has caused spring weather to appear an average of 10 days earlier than the start of spring 30 years ago


Accuweather spring snow forecast through today.  I’m guessing that no one is planting crops in Nebraska today.

Global warming causes quakes, early spring

Earthquakes?

Global warming brings early spring to Arctic

Three people based their spring backpacking trip on that theory:

“I’m getting extremely frustrated with the stupidly cold temperatures that are making my life a misery, day after day.”
Catlin Arctic Explorer  Martin Hartley

Current spring conditions in the Arctic

Weather
sleet Cloudy
-35°C

Mild winter rattles Russians : Psychiatrists warn lack of cold, sun, snow lead some into depression


Today’s NCEP forecast for Russia – severe springtime cold

Perhaps all that extra CO2 is being affected by the global recession, and is unable to find employment in it’s normal line of work – trapping heat.

https://i0.wp.com/jennifermarohasy.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/snowmen-protest.jpg
Protesting snowmen on the unemployment lines – H/T to Jennifer Marohasy

Advertisements

120 thoughts on “Global Warming and “The Early Spring”

  1. Psychiatrists in Moscow say the lack of sun and snow – which reflects sunlight to brighten short, dark days – is leaving many depressed.
    “The clouds, the short days and the lack of light can have a deep psychological effect even on people who are mentally healthy,” says Denis Osipov, a psychotherapist at Moscow’s Institute for Positive Psychotherapy.
    “And without snow, the city looks filthy. It’s hard to feel happy when everyone around you looks dirty and miserable,” he said.

    So now AGW causes dirty, miserable people. What a crock. I’ll take warm over cold anytime other than June, July and August (in the NH). I’ll wager Pamela G. agrees with me, she was miserable when it was cold, (and a little verbally dirty) ;~P.

  2. Research by White et al. used satellite data to measure how much earlier spring is arriving with the warming climate. Over the past 25 years (since 1982) they found “no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.”

    Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982 to 2006.
    M. White et al.
    Global Change Biology (in press).

  3. White, M.A., K.M. de Beurs, K. Didan, D.W. Inouye, A.D. Richardson, O.P. Jensen, J. O’Keefe, G. Zhang, R.R. Nemani, W.J.D. van Leeuwen, J.F. Brown, A. de Wit, M. Schaepman, X. Lin, M. Dettinger, A. Bailey, J. Kimball, M.D. Schwartz, D.D. Baldocchi, J.T. Lee, W.K. Lauenroth. Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982 to 2006. Global Change Biology (in press).

    The abtstract reads

    “Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by +/- 60 days and in standard deviation by +/- 20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.”

  4. Good post!, as always, sun and climate our favorites.

    Was it not that, as countrymen all over the world, the seasons follow the lunar calendar?, then we will have to wait until the first full moon of the equinox -next week.- (Here in SH of course waiting for fall to come)
    About the 2007 mild russian winter: I have not checked temperatures but it seems to me like the “temperature polar axis” is travelling southwards to Canada and if so, the other “side”, Russia, would have milder weather.
    However, russians don´t believe in “hollywood science” (K.I.Abdusamatov)
    and predict a Maunder like minimum.
    http://www.giurfa.com/abdusamatov2.pdf

  5. Ron de Haan (06:57:09) :

    Interesting paper.   570 spotless days does not a grand minimum make.  Still, all the indicators point that way.  We will have to wait another 570 spotless days to be sure.  Lots of time for discussion, by the fireplace (Brrr!).

    –Mike Ramsey

  6. That Earthquake story was from my local paper. They called their column “dateline earth” to give it that apocalyptic tone. They’re going out of business now…pity. I (and nearly all their readers) really enjoyed flaming them every week. :-)

  7. A deep cooling would cut productivity in northern hemisphere farming while increasing drought elsewhere. Less warmth and long winters equals less crop, and that could made even worse if we’re cutting much needed CO2 at the same time.

    Europeans, Chinese, North Americans and Japanese will be more reliant on importing food from southern nations which are mostly underdeveloped. We better let politicians know that they need a contingency plan to get developing nations to improve their irrigation of lands and farming method otherwise everyone suffers.

    The last time this happened Europeans were forced to colonise the world to feed their homelands. Colonisation is no longer a possibility so rapid co-operation and development is the only option.

  8. My cherry trees are blooming the LATEST I have seen in years here in N. Central Texas. Normally by this time they have flowered and leafed out, I am only getting a few blooms and leafing now! (Caveat: Wx not, climate I know.)

  9. How long before the cracks in the AGW dam break to reveal a flood of anti AGW rhetoric that was put out by the the political elements that have always been part of this debate? A couple of points. Cold kills more quickly and is more efficient at killing than heat. Cold means we need more food, or better insulation.

    Arthur C Clarke, the science fiction writer, predicted that by the end of the 21’st century we’d be burning coal to stave off an ice age, perhaps he was thinking too far ahead 2020 anyone?

  10. whoops, make that “anti AGW rhetoric that wassuppressed by the the political elements that have always been part of this debate”

  11. The cold spring was also the order of the day here in Western Europe, that is until only a few days ago when spring finally made its debut. And because the winter had been so long, it was as if someone had let the cows out of the barn for the first time in weeks. With temperatures in the 50s, people were suddenly driving their convertibles, running around in shorts and t-shirts and flocking to the garden center.
    In western Europe the blue maps like those shown above were all we saw this winter and spring.

    Ron de Haan
    Shhhhhhhhhh…
    Mentioning sunsüpots here will cause spots to appear. It’s Anthony’s Gore effect.

  12. Really, spring is here? Havent been feeling it up here in Washington State, must be taking its time to get here.

  13. The power of cognitive dissonance.

    I recall that Newsweek article from April 1975, and the threats of a coming ice age. In it, it pointed to a shorter growing season in the UK (by about 2 weeks) compared to 1950.

    Now that the scare of the day is global warming, growings seasons are longer, animals are appearing north of their normal stomping grounds {compared to 30 years ago – hmmmmm – during the ice age scare}.

    Seems that people see what they want to see; facts and reality too often get in the way of the scare of the day. In another quarter century, mankind’s short attention span will show itself as the focus turns to the crisis of another coming ice age – just as the climate gets ready to start warming again.

    The more things change …

  14. We’re to have a freeze tonight and possibly tomorrow night here in Austin, Texas. That would be one month later than average.

    First freeze last fall was nearly three weeks earlier than average.

    Last freeze last spring was more than two weeks later than average.

    Sorry to present incontrovertible, real anecdotal data when there are so many good computer models out there — I’m behind the times!

  15. Aron

    Not to worry about cold resulting in reduced agriculture.

    California’s government and its advisors tell us (over and over and over) that California will see hotter temperatures — thus creating greater agricultural opportunities. If the states with water would just send it our way, we will grow the food.

    Problem solved.

    [sarc off now]

  16. Well Spring is here in Northern California, and has been for at least a month; but then it is also very cold in the mornings.

    As for the Wilkins ice shelf on the west coast of the Antarctic peninsula, the darn thin is pretty much on the Antarctic circle, and is sticking out into the southern ocean. So every day you have a tidal bulge sloshing under that floating ice. Is it any wonder that it breaks up from time to time. There are pices of that shelf that have broken up and regrown over just the last 50-60 years or so, so they are now a different thickness from surrounding areas because of precipitation.
    Given that we had some warming from the 1970s to the 2000s or thereabouts, it is not remarkable that those shelves might have thinned to where breaks occur.

    Next they will be telling us that the whole Antarctic ice sheet is about to slide into the southern ocean. Hasn’t done so in the last 3/4 million years or so, according to ice cores; so don’t hold your breath.

    George

  17. But isn’t Antarctic Ice above average and growing nicely currently? At least the cryosphere page shows this.
    Also the spotless day count currently stands at 593 days, 600 will be quite a milestone for recent solar data as the average is 485 days.

  18. The silent shriek, of the disappearing Cascade snowpack, is deafening!
    Didn’t someone lose their job over that?

  19. Refer to http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/antarctic.seaice.color.004.png

    Current Ice growth along the Wilkins Ice shelf side of the peninsula is minimal and not much is happening here but on the other side of the peninsula (east of it), ice is booming. This sharp contrast of ice, split apart by that thin peninsula indicates either volcanic activity is hampering ice formation and/or leading to fractures on the Wilkins side, or more likely a warm Pacific oceanic current is having some sort of effect.

  20. gvheard said:

    Arthur C Clarke, the science fiction writer, predicted that by the end of the 21’st century we’d be burning coal to stave off an ice age, perhaps he was thinking too far ahead 2020 anyone?

    Got a link for that? Sounds interesting.

  21. OK, I have found a reference: Arthur C Clarke.

    Some of his predictions are off … who knows.

    The one problem with most predictions is the assumption that the good times will continue and scientific progress will continue. That may be an invalid assumption.

  22. VG:

    I downloaded Dr.Theon´s speech and saw it. For me the central issue is, when referring to JH he said that JH had some very “powerful political friends”…
    Now, how does it work?, at least since the french revolution practically ended all monarchies in the world:
    Some “secret”or rather, “esoteric” society, choose, among middle class men, a not too clever guy (being clever would be dangerous indeed), then through well concocted “ceremonies” of theirs, convince this not so clever guy, that he is becoming “initiated” in such a way that he is progressing or developing a certain degree of elevated consciousness which places him above we, common mortals.
    In order to make possible to this individual to be useful for this secret society goals, he is conveniently helped and promoted in his personal social and business life by their secret comrades.
    In one of the latest degrees this so exaltated individual is secretly informed the organization´s most altruistic goals for mankind, and how HE has been chosen by God himself to cooperate toward the fulfillment of His work on the earth. He is instructed of how humanity and the world will and must be, with no differences whatsoever among men, how God wants us humans to be organized as in a honeycomb or in an anthill.

  23. I was trying to find the British Met Office’s verdict on March’s weather here in the UK and it would seem they have not seen fit to update from February to March: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_latest_weather.html
    Maybe they are still debating what to show. Note February’s reference to:
    “A cold first half of the month followed by a mild second half resulted in mean temperatures for the whole month being close to the 1971-2000 normal over most of the UK”. No verdict as to actual average February temperature and exactly how that compared with “1971-2000 normal”. I would have thought that to verify to their strong AGW stand February ought to have been above average.

  24. I live in Arkansas. We are indeed blessed with the normal spring blossoms, redbud trees are in full bloom with some dogwoods just beginning to show their flowers. I got out and mowed the lawn for the first time this year. But I sit in my house with my jacket on contemplating whether or not to turn the heat back on.

    It’s chilly and blustery outside. It’s supposed to go back down into the twenties Monday night. I’m worrying about when to plant my garden. Frosts in April are not uncommon, of course, but what I’m saying is that IT IS NOT GETTING WARMER! Certainly not. Y’all, I just upgraded my propane furnace ’cause the old one just wasn’t getting it done. Ya get that? I’m not concerned with upgrading my AC. Last Summer was easy goings. But I did get cold a few times this last Winter, even with the fire insert and gas furnace.

    Who knows if an ice age is coming? All I know is that “global warming” is not something that alarms me in the least. I’m certainly not seeing it on my end.

  25. I’ve noticed, from living in Illinois, that it seems like our fall season goes a bit later and our spring starts later. For the past couple years especially, our spring in Chicago seems to have started much later…and looking at your map of the U.S., Chicago’s smack dab in the middle of the colder temperature differences.

    http://chicagoismynewblog.wordpress.com/

  26. 4-8 inches of snow expected here in southeastern Michigan tonight. That’s certainly not unheard of, but on the other hand it doesn’t sound much like warming either.

  27. Count ye not your spring chickens. And always remember old country sayings; they are the product of far more solid evidence than anyone can produce in a lab or a computer. My favourite, in the context of spring, is “for every fog in March there’ll be a frost in May”.

    A foggy March would cause the rural folks to delay planting-out delicate seedlings until the end of May, a non-foggy March and they would do it in the middle of May to get an extra couple of weeks of flowering/cropping. They knew things change from year to year and that certain physical phenomena in one period of the year were a very strong indicator of others a little while later.

    A widespread practice in the south of England is to plant main-crop seed potatoes on Good Friday. That can mean a difference of a month between the earliest and latest plantings because the dates of Easter and, therefore, Good Friday are set according to a particular phase of the moon. Perhaps the olde worlde potato growers were satisfied of a connection between the moon and optimum growing conditions.

  28. We appear to be falling into the Mole Whacking game Alarmists accuse us of using against their “Science”. Take a look at any of the stories over the past two years and you will find Empirical data such as species behaviors, sea level rising, fish stocks falling, coral bleaching, snow caps melting. Virtually all of these phenomenon are uniquely linked to AGW and imminent global disaster. It reminds me of the comic headline “Scientist Say World Will End Tomorrow – The Poor Will Suffer Most”.

    Has anyone seen any news media coverage of the gross discrediting of Mann’s Hockey Stick? Has anyone seen a story questioning why it’s getting colder when it’s supposed to be getting warmer (except those few that attribute the decline over the past six years to AGW)?

    While scientific refutation must continue, we also need to recognize and fight the political element of this era. All AGW solutions require government control of every facet of the private lives of individuals. Fear is the only motive that can bring this about. Fear can rationalize behavior modifying taxes and regulations. Fear, as history shows, justifies any form of dealing with opposition from censorship and ridicule to fines and imprisonment.

    As noted in the Guest Post by Steven Goddard, Tipping Point In The Media, 31 03 2009, we are approaching a time where fear of economic ruin that we can all see too well is trumping any ginned up fear of Armageddon. We need to flood the local papers with letters, articles, and links to the latest evidence of global warming chicanery. Anthony, Steve McIntyre, Steven Goddard, et al have the global audience. It’s up to us lurkers to create and develop local audiences. Sooner or later the media will follow the subscribers or fail (hopefully to be bought by more balanced interests).

    I’m not a climate scientist, not a scientist at all in fact, but I never miss a posting on this and several other blogs. I often read every response in awe and wonder of the incredible scientific and philosophical resources displayed, only to wonder if they are limited to these sites that most of the world has ever seen nor heard of. Don’t let that be so.

  29. .
    >>Our “government” has already passed a ‘Climate Change
    >>>Bill’ which is going to beggar the country.

    And it will do nothing to reduce CO2 emissions. What Britian has done over the last 20 years is to export its manufacturing to China, because it is cheaper. But China does not give a fig about any type of emissions (or worker standards), and so the net result is we have doubled or trebbled the amount of noxious emissions per unit of manufacture – but just transferred them to the other side of the world. Brilliant. So much for Kyoto Protocols and the like.

    In fact, on a social level, we have also re-invented slavery in the 21st century, but our neo-slaves live at the other end of the world instead of across the street. Its amazing what Liberal politicians will turn a blind eye to, as long as it keeps our inflation low and the proleteriat happy and quiescent.

    However, this is not a situation that will last, because the USA and UK have not even bothered to pay for all these cheap imports from our Chinese slaves (hence our huge balance of payments deficits, and China’s vast stock of US bonds), and China will soon grow tired of giving us goods for free. Stand by for a large cut in our standards of living, as we have to cut our imports to pay back China.

    Only then will CO2 emmissions reduce, as manufacturing slowly returns to the West, where there are stricter emissions limitations.

    Conclusion – politicians are doing nothing to cut CO2.

    .

  30. Pierre Gosselin (08:00:47) :

    The cold spring was also the order of the day here in Western Europe, that is until only a few days ago when spring finally made its debut.

    I still have about 1m of global warming around my house (60N). Granted… some of that is leftover after clearing the roof twice this winter, in fear of structural damage, but not all. We moved here in 1993, and although there have been winters before with significant snow, this winter had more than I have seen here since we moved.

    I expect several more weeks to melt the garden snow.

  31. Ah so carbon trading was stolen from Arthur C Clarke’s concept of the mega-watt hour! The big difference is that carbon credit trading is based on baloney science and requires heavy .gov monitoring and a complete invasion of privacy.

  32. John Peter — for what it’s worth, the CET figure for February was 4.1C which was 0.1C below the 1971-2000 average and 0.2C above the average for the whole series. The March figure is 7.0 (Philip Eden in the Telegraph is quoting it as 6.9; not sure why there is a difference) which is 0.7C above the 1971-2000 average and a massive 1.7C above the average for the series.
    It’s also sixth warmest of the last 10.

  33. No Wonder Climate Alarmists Refuse to Debate
    http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/04/no_wonder_climate_alarmists_re.html

    When you hear the names Al Gore and James Hansen in the same sentence you immediately assume the subject to be manmade global warming panic. But there’s another distinction which links these two – they both steadfastly refuse to defend their positions in formal debate. And a recent performance by one of their own in just such a venue reminds us why.

    RC TV – Green Politics – pt 1
    http://www.rollcall.com/multimedia/tv/33727-1.html

    On our current emissions path we are going to warm the United States 10-15 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century and sea level rise will be 5 feet or higher and a third of the planet will be desert.”

    RC TV – Green Politics – pt 2
    http://www.rollcall.com/multimedia/tv/33726-1.html

    And so it went — virtually every cogent point made by Morano was met not with reasoned retort but rather polemical blather and name calling. And from Dr. Joseph J. Romm — one the alarmists’ most revered minds.

    “The alarmists claim all the evidence supports their theory, but the only way they can prove that is to actually show up for a debate and win. If they are afraid to publicly debate and scientifically defend their assertions, it is a good indication who they fear will win the debate.”

  34. According to Wikipedia, fresh snow has the highest albedo. Looks as though this week will not be nice for the alarmists. I am curious, with all of the snow still on the ground (more so than in recent years I believe) if there is enough additional albedo to actually influence global temperatures short term. Obviously would need global data. Nevertheless could be an interesting impact to watch, particularly in light (npi) of reduced solar irradiance.

  35. There is a saying in the south that you dont plant anything till “after” Easter. That has been proven right more often than not. Low temps here in southern Georgia(50 miles from Florida) tues morning are predicted to hit 28 degrees…a new record low since records have been kept!

  36. Tanner Waterbury (08:04:29) : Washington State spring . . .

    Don’t miss it. Set to last all of five days!
    WEST
    ANOTHER COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON IN A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN.
    EAST
    CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ON WEDNESDAY.

  37. Far off-topic, but someone brought up Sci-fi writers (one of my favorites, Arthur C. Clarke).

    If it ever really comes down to it, and we (mankind) need to maintain Arctic ice, here is a blue-sky idea:

    What would be the effect of filling in the Arctic Ocean, so that warm ocean currents could not melt away the ice. Would this produce a polar region similar to Antarctica, with a permanent ice cap? Or, would the obvious difference of Antarctica being surrounded by ocean make a difference?

    Has anyone heard of such a proposal?

  38. ralph ellis :

    Your “pseudo” chinese slaves can do the following: (this is political-economical fiction)
    1.Start selling, in all markets, their US Treasure Bonds.
    2.Issue Chinese bonds at the same time.
    How long will this take? Not longer than 5 minutes.
    It would be worst than LIA^2

  39. We have had a normal to mild winter in Greece, but the swallows have not arrived yet. They usually come end of March. Folk wisdom has it that if they swallows are late, there is more cold coming. We shall see. The forecast is for cooling by next weekend.

    Reply: Folk wisdom has swallows returning to Capistrano on my birthday. ~ charles the moderator

  40. I am in Nebraska and, no, I am not planting crops today. I am however stoking the fire. It’s nice and warm.

  41. What would be the effect of filling in the Arctic Ocean, so that warm ocean currents could not melt away the ice. Would this produce a polar region similar to Antarctica, with a permanent ice cap? Or, would the obvious difference of Antarctica being surrounded by ocean make a difference?

    Has anyone heard of such a proposal?

    You mean a floating artificial island that regulates the temperature of polar ice that forms on top of it. Good idea. Much cheaper than forcing a decarbonisation on humanity.

  42. outstanding spring day here on the central coast, Cal. Planted the tomatoes a little too early this year (hey, K mart had them on sale), so they weren’t doing so hot at first but now they are really enjoying the weather. Came in to cool off, but now it’s time to get back out there and plant some trees and more tomatoes. I love it here! Don’t envy other parts of the country right now.

  43. Ed Scott, thanks for the links. Marc Morano was superb! Romm responded ad hominem all the way. I am ashamed of him ‘debating’ this way. Fortunately, the public is not stupid. Result? Another big win for the AGW skeptics.

  44. Well im in New Zealand, so were into autumn here. But im a farmer, and i pay close attention to spring balance dates, when grass growth exceeds animal requirements. My income depends on it, the same as any other intensive pastoral based farmer any where in the world does. Im sure there would be accurate records obtainable for this… but its got buggar all to do with atmospheric temperature! Its the soil temperatures that limit spring growth, and one cold rain can undo a month of mild temperatures, and one warm rain can undo a month of frosts.

    And no i cant say ive noticed any pattern with the balance date moving forward, 20th September is balance date here, give or take a week… and in recent years its been more give a week.

  45. More on the Wilkins Ice Shelf

    This story has been running for some days here:

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25292212-12377,00.html

    especially on the ABC. I have just heard Dr Ted Scambos, Lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre, University of Colorado, give an interview on ABC radio when he conclusively put down the break up of the ice bridge to general global warming and warned of resultant future rising sea levels.

    I believe this warrants more comment from some of AW’s experts because I have NEVER EVER heard any other opposing views in the Australian mainstream media.

  46. John Peter (09:42:42) :

    I was trying to find the British Met Office’s verdict on March’s weather here in the UK and it would seem they have not seen fit to update

    This is a March months graph, including this March for central England.

    No verdict as to actual average February temperature and exactly how that compared with “1971-2000 normal”. I would have thought that to verify to their strong AGW stand February ought to have been above average.

    February anomalies here.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2009/february/averages.html

    UK regional data found here. Not updated to March yet.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html#

  47. .
    >> The Chinese could:
    >> 1. Start selling, in all markets, their US Treasury Bonds.

    They dare not – it would cause a run on the value of the US dollar, and reduce the value of their immense dollar holdings. They should rather raise the value of the Yuan (allow it to float), which would allow the US (and the UK) to start producing more manufactured goods (they would be more competitive), which is why we should eventually get a shift back to Western manufacture.

    The point, in climate terms, is that the economic policy that the West has been chasing for two decades has ensured that more CO2 was released – because we all know that China does not give a damn about emissions. So the politicians go on about taking less flights, using smaller cars and switching the standby on the TV off – when their economic policy has ensured a doubling of CO2 emissions. Hypocritical, is the word.

    .
    .

  48. John Peter (09:42:42) :

    “I was trying to find the British Met Office’s verdict on March’s weather here in the UK and it would seem they have not seen fit to update from February to March”

    Me too, but I notice they admit to a minimum at Aviemore of -18.4 C on Feb.9th, which may even be a record, but they don’t say so.

    A month earlier, they posted a ‘big freeze round up’ that included: “Parts of southern England have experienced some of their lowest temperatures since 1991” and reported that cold weather payments (to pensioners) were the highest since the scheme was introduced a decade ago.

    What they don’t mention is that their general forecast in the autumn was for a ‘mild winter’ – oops…

  49. BTW – is everyone up to speed on how useless wind energy actually is, and why it will precipitate the downfall and destruction of nations? In short, wind energy is so variable that grids cannot utilise the power, not unless there are equivalent normal power stations on ‘spinning standby’ (burning and turning) to take up the slack when the wind drops.

    Many people don’t realise this because it is not openly admitted. The BBC for example, being a thoroughbred AGW promoter, omits ‘variability’ from its list of wind power disadvantages. How about that for Green propaganda – just omit the most important item.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/adaptation/wind_power.shtml

    Spain (a large wind power provider) nearly lost their entire grid on several occasions over the past few years.
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article384768.ece?token=null&offset=12
    And this is what happens when a grid goes down – civilisation as we know it ends!
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Blackout_of_2003

    Even more interesting is the fact that while Denmark has the largest ‘wind carpet’ in the world, DENMARK HAS NEVER USED ANY OF ITS WIND POWER!! Why? Because it is too unreliable.
    So what does it do with all that energy? It sells it (at a loss) to Scandinavia, which has abundant hydro energy, which can be turned on and off instantly.
    http://www.thomastelford.com/journals/DocumentLibrary/CIEN.158.2.66.pdf

    (Also take a look at the wind outages on the graphs. 52 days in one year without any wind power, and 15 weeks below 10% power in another. You cannot run a country on energy supplies like that.)

    This is the Inconvenient Truth that Al Gore forgot to tell everyone. He is leading us all down the road to ruin, because a technological society cannot function without reliable energy – we all descend back into the Dark Ages within a couple of weeks.

    .

  50. “a minimum at Aviemore of -18.4 C”

    Not a record, I have now discovered (it’s -27.2, apparently) although it still suggests that this is not going to be one our warmer winters!

  51. “spinning standby”

    As I understand it, wind power still saves some energy, as the fuel demand for most generators depends on the load, in the same way that your car needs more gas to get up a hill. Regulation of turbines is through demand valves that control the steam, and a reduction in this demand feeds through to the amount of coal/oil/gas* used to produce the steam. Conservation of energy laws apply, I think!

    *Different for nuclear, I believe, which are effectively either on or off.

  52. Re: Richard Heg (08:10:40) :

    “The science of phenology.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenology

    The Wikipedia definition of phenology appears to describe nothing more than a system that incorporates different metrics to measure weather events and their impacts. I know that WX is not climate, but neither are the dates that budding and leafing, calving, migratory bird arrivals. or season creep occurred.

    Phenological data and Farmers Almanac predictions seem highly correlated. Both are at least as reliable as GC models.

  53. James P,

    The point is that if the wind isn’t blowing consistently, the wind generators can’t produce a steady stream of power. This requires that power sources from a “spinning standby” system be available, instantly, to augment the supply when needed.

    Nuclear generates power through water conversion to steam, basically like a coal / gas plant. What you don’t have is carbon coming out of the core and into the environment. So even the nuclear plant is going to have to have a spinning turbine on a constant basis to back up the wind turbine. Otherwise, you’re requiring that the turbine come to speed instantaniously, which is going to cause some mechanical issues with torque.

  54. ralph ellis (15:03:39) :

    “BTW – is everyone up to speed on how useless wind energy actually is, and why it will precipitate the downfall and destruction of nations? “

    Well, California is not a nation, just one state among 50. But wind energy does a pretty good job out here. Crosspatch and I had a discussion on this just a day or so ago on another thread.

    The Giga-watt hours generated by wind in California in 2007 amounted to roughly 25 percent of the installed capacity, if it were running full out 24×7.

    Mr. Ellis, with all due respect, wind does not affect a large power grid in the manner you described above. Variations in wind power are no different for a large grid than variations in load due to starting/stopping millions of motors or turning on tvs or computers or plugging in 10 million plug-in electric cars. The effect is dampened when there are multiple wind-turbines in different locations.

    If one had only one gas-fired power plant, no other power plants, and one large wind turbine on the grid, with the wind turbine supplying 50 percent of the power, then there would be problems.

    The key issue is a large sudden imbalance between demand and generation. As one example from my engineering days, a chemical plant near Houston, TX had a large induction motor rated at 10,000 horsepower (roughly 7,600 KW). When we were ready to start it up after some maintenance on the air compressor connected to it, we were required to notify the utility (at that time it was Houston Lighting and Power) and give them half an hour before we hit the start button. Our electrical guy was literally on the phone with HLP, and when they gave the ok, he hit the switch.

    What really gave HLP fits was when we had to stop that motor during an emergency. We called them to let them know as soon as we could, but when it tripped off-line they had some problems.

    Hope this helps.

  55. For New Zealand, our March 2009 figures from NIWA are:
    “Temperatures were cooler than average over most of the country for March. Averaged over the whole month, temperatures were below average (by between -0.5 and -1.5°C) for all of the North Island except for Northland, Bay of Plenty and East Cape and over all of the South Island except for north Canterbury, Otago and Southland (where temperatures were near or slightly below normal). Temperatures in parts of Southern Hawke’s Bay were well below normal (by between -1.5 and -2.0°C). The national average temperature of 15.1°C was 0.6°C below the long-term average for March.”

    March was definitely cool in this part of the world.

    Interestingly, we had high levels of sunshine:
    “Extremely high sunshine totals for March were recorded in the north of the North Island where values were 30% or more above average. A new March record of 268 sunshine hours (144 percent of normal) occurred in Kaitaia. Other areas of New Zealand received above normal (between 110 and 125% of normal) sunshine for the month.”

  56. Further to my earlier comment, HLP always knew when that 7,600 KW motor tripped off-line. Our phone call was a courtesy to explain what happened.

  57. If we were to follow the AGW logic, we should be crying for huge changes in human civilization and perhaps demanding a Carbon Non Use Tax. Anyone found using wind power, hydro power, nuclear power and especially, solar power, will be taxed heavily.

    Huge Tax incentives for burning hydrocarbons, coal, wood and perhaps even dung. I’m working on a steam powered SUV. After all, steam powered cars were available a century ago just as electric cars were. We will have to do away with white cars and promote black as the color of choice.

    We will need more people to populate the new land that will appear as the oceans recede due to glaciation. I imagine the Chunnel will no longer be needed to travel from the UK to France. So rather than halve the population of England, we need to double it. These people can work the new farm land that will be needed to grow GM crops during the shortened growing seasons.

    Yup, I can see it all now…

  58. Question for Roger Sowell re California’s wind turbines: Is any kind of electrical storage used to smooth out fluctuations in the wind velocity, and if so, is is batteries or something else? I have seen lots of articles on solar energy, but nothing on how to cope with lack of generation at night, nor how they would be protected from lightning strikes in the SW desert.

  59. Roger Sowell (16:29:20) :

    Mr. Ellis, with all due respect, wind does not affect a large power grid in the manner you described above.

    A quote from one of the links provided by Mr. Ellis:

    The 2004 “wind report” from E.ON, one of Germany’s biggest producers of energy, explains why so much outlay has achieved so little. It points out that wind power is so unreliable that a power company can avoid blackouts only by keeping conventional power stations, with at least 50% of the capacity of its wind farms, on permanent standby. Wind power reaching the German grid in 2003 was just a sixth of the installed capacity.

    Conversely, when the wind blows hard, the sudden power surge can burn out circuits and put the whole grid at risk. Such surges frequently threaten blackouts in Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein.

    And the price is far from right. The German government’s economic advisory council has warned that subsidies for green electricity will help push power prices up by a third in the next five years.

    .
    .
    James P also note the economic problems cited.

  60. OT – Did anyone see the WWF ad claiming polar bears are threating extinction and literally 1 minute of a polar bear and its cub on a melting ice berg talking about how they were running out of food and going to die! This was over the top. I sent them an email with my digust, maybe you could do the same?

    Commercial Available – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDZjRXk82VQ

    Comment From to WWF – http://worldwildlife.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/worldwildlife.cfg/php/enduser/ask.php

    Maybe a few emails will let them know that these unsubstantied claims, probobly lies, are over the top.

  61. From the 2004 “wind report” from E.ON I quoteL

    For technical reasons, the intensive use of wind power in Germany is associated with significant operational challenges:
    • Only limited wind power is available. In order to cover electricity demands, traditional power station capacities must be maintained as so-called “shadow power stations” at a total level of more than 80 % of the installed wind energy capacity, so that the electricity consumption is also covered during economically difficult periods.
    • Only limited forecasting is possible for wind power infeed. If the wind power forecast differs from the actual infeed, the transmission system operator must cover the difference by utilising reserve capacity. This requires reserve capacities amounting to 50 – 60 % of the installed wind power capacity.
    • Wind power requires a corresponding grid infrastructure. The windy coastal regions of Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony are precisely the
    places where the grids have now reached their capacity limits through wind power.

    http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/EonWindReport2004.pdf

    Not made up; cited and referenced.

  62. ralph ellis (15:03:39) sez: “…The BBC for example, being a thoroughbred AGW promoter, omits ‘variability’ from its list of wind power disadvantages….

    Yes, but notice that among the advantages for wind power they list: “If the turbines need to be taken down, there is no damage to the environment and no residues are left behind.

    LOL. There’s nothing like planning ahead, is there?

  63. Roger Sowell (11:53:12) :
    Far off-topic, but someone brought up Sci-fi writers (one of my favorites, Arthur C. Clarke).

    If it ever really comes down to it, and we (mankind) need to maintain Arctic ice, here is a blue-sky idea:

    What would be the effect of filling in the Arctic Ocean, so that warm ocean currents could not melt away the ice. Would this produce a polar region similar to Antarctica, with a permanent ice cap? Or, would the obvious difference of Antarctica being surrounded by ocean make a difference?

    Has anyone heard of such a proposal?

    Good luck with that, the average depth of the Arctic is ~3400′.

  64. Tom in South Jersey (16:57:57) :

    Hi Tom I take it you enjoyed the unseasonably warm weather today?
    65ºF (~10º above normal)

  65. Jim, no offense intended re making things up, not citing sources. There are substantial differences between what Germany and California are doing. It ties back to what I wrote earlier, percent of wind-power on the grid.

    re German wind power. Germany is exploring the limits of wind-power as a percent of total generating capacity. From published reports (see link below), some areas in Germany have 40 percent of their power from wind. It is not clear to me if that is total GWhrs generated, or installed capacity. Our experience in California is that we have about 9 percent of grid installed capacity is wind-power, with 2.3 percent of the GWhr sold (2007 data from California Energy Commission):

    http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/total_system_power.html

    Although I did work in Germany years ago, I have not lived there and cannot speak on the consistency of their wind. Apparently, it is very sporadic. Our experience in California shows it works at our level, which is very low compared to the entire grid. Our blackouts are due to other factors, such as heat waves with inadequate generating plant (we built more plants), and human error ( a utility worker blacked out Los Angeles for half a day a couple of years ago — had nothing to do with wind-power). Also, our wind tends to blow more strongly at night. Wind-generation is very site-specific, as is commonly stated in many publications.

    German wind energy: (text in English; the data portion of this is in German)

    http://www.wind-energie.de/en/news/article/annual-balance-for-wind-energy-generated-in-2008/166/

    @retired BChE,

    There is much research and some action in the electric power storage area, with some good information from U.S. Dept Of Energy. (see link below).

    There are presently six main areas of research for storage: flywheels, batteries, capacitors, compressed-air energy storage (CAES), superconducting magnetic energy storage, and pumped-storage hydroelectric. None of these are economically attractive, because the initial cost of the storage system is very large.

    http://www.eere.energy.gov/de/energy_storage.html

    The Germans I had the privilege of working with are some of the smartest guys around. If they cannot make it work at 40 percent, there is likely a real limit right around there.

  66. Tanner Waterbury (08:04:29) :

    Really, spring is here? Havent been feeling it up here in Washington State, must be taking its time to get here.

    Finally got some Spring weather up on Whidbey Island yesterday and today. Though Saturday morning began with a frost, it got into the high 50s. Today it got into the mid 60s, only very high cirrus clouds. Got to do some mowing.

    **** CONGRATULATIONS JEFF, YOURS IS THE 100,000th COMMENT POSTED ON WUWT**** – Anthony

  67. Mike86 (16:07:11) sez: “So even the nuclear plant is going to have to have a spinning turbine on a constant basis to back up the wind turbine. Otherwise, you’re requiring that the turbine come to speed instantanieously, which is going to cause some mechanical issues with torque.”

    There’s more flexibility in wind turbines than some people like to think. Wind turbines do not come to an immediate halt. The blades have tremendous inertia and slow gradually as wind drops off, providing some ramp-up time for the backup source. “Runaway” excess power is also less problematic than represented– many wind turbines are equipped with variable pitch blades that permit modulating the RPMs to meet grid synchronization requirements.

  68. Slightly O/T. The sea ice extent graph on the IJIS website seems to be stuck on March 29. Wondering if this may be an equipment malfunction (or update?) or have they been busy ‘correcting’ the data??

  69. ralph ellis (14:23:12) :
    “… the politicians go on about taking less flights, using smaller cars and switching the standby on the TV off …”

    There seem to be some missing words, surely it should read “the politicians go on about PEOPLE OTHER THAN THEM taking …”

    On a different issue raised in the comments, it seems to me that all arguments for switching to “green” electricity production fail to take into account a significant factor. The generation and distribution of electricity is not done for the fun of it. It is done to ensure, so far as possible, that human beings are provided with a steady supply of something they rely on to provide physical and financial comfort. In order to achieve this it is necessary to cope with enormous variations in demand through each day, demands that vary throughout the week and throughout the year as human activity changes.

    There is, as I understand it, a small capacity for storage, but generally it is supply on demand. This requires a set of power generators to operate constantly to provide for normal usage and for those generators to be turned up when demand increases. It also requires additional capacity to be available at very short notice to cope with particular surges in demand. Quite apart from the inability of windmills and solar panels to provide a steady supply, they have absolutely no capacity to turn up the volume when people are cooking dinner or when millions are boiling water for a cup of tea during the commercial break in the nation’s favourite soap opera.

    By all means develop the technology so that “green” generators can do what coal, gas and nuclear can achieve today; but no one should fool themselves into thinking that the “green” options are yet anywhere near viable as wholesale producers of the electricity we need. The purpose of the “green” alternatives is to satisfy demand not to satisfy politicians. Until they can guarantee a steady supply for the times of steady demand and an additional supply whenever there is a surge in demand they will remain an irrelevant backwater.

  70. Unfortunately, this isn’t true. The concrete bases will always be there. The roads required for every single wind turbine will remain to scar the land for decades. The landscapes changed by intensive wind development will be marred forever.

    jorgekafkazar (18:45:33) :
    Yes, but notice that among the advantages for wind power they list: “If the turbines need to be taken down, there is no damage to the environment and no residues are left behind.”

  71. Adolfo Giurfa (09:40:33) :
    Man Vs Ants – Advantage Ants
    I’m waiting for the AGW management to come up with their version of Global Idol.
    Couple of Golden Calves will do in a pinch.

  72. Hey folks,
    Go through Club Of Rome 1970’s Archives. The doom and gloom anti-human league wrote policy reports how ‘global warming’ would be an effective population control devise. In 1992 they wrote… ““In searching for a new enemy to unite us we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill…All these dangers are caused by human intervention…The real enemy then, is humanity itself.”
    Teach that to high school and college kids.

    Also read the ‘non’ classified version of the
    ‘Model State Emergency Health Powers Act’
    With the attempt to pull of a man made pandemic soon you will be floored to familiarize yourself with the subsections of ‘Confiscation and Rationing of Personal Property’

    You don’t have to believe ANYTHING just read.

  73. 2-6 in of snow forecast here , normally apple trees would be blossomed.
    oh well.

  74. It is a very late spring in the Norwegian arctic. Record low temperatures for the first week of April in Svalbard. Temperatures have been 10 C below normal values for a week now. And more of the same in the forecast.

    Tropical:

    click Data Download on the site to get the latest data. Just the graph has not been updated, the data is there.

  75. Not doubt that the current winter and spring in the northern hemisphere is older than the trend for the last 30 years.

    One easy way to verify warming in spring and summer temperatures (especially over the past 30 years) is to look at the duration of ice on lakes and rivers and to look at long term data on lake temperatures (long term data sets for lakes across the world are shown in a paper in press in Limnology and Oceanography–perhaps Athony will post it when it becomes available). Many journal articles (see Google Scholar) show strong, long term trends (mostly 30-100 years) toward reduced ice cover in lakes and warmer spring and summer lake temperatures. This is what is being reflected in seasonal phenology and plants, bird breeding etc. It will be interesting to see how plants and animals respond to this year’s cooler spring. However, plants and animals do not respond to what is happening high above the earth’s surface.

  76. Phil. (18:57:36) :

    Tom in South Jersey (16:57:57) :

    Hi Tom I take it you enjoyed the unseasonably warm weather today?
    65ºF (~10º above normal)

    Yes Phil, thanks for asking. It was a beautiful day. I much prefer the warmer weather over the cooler weather. Unfortunately the nice, warmer days have been few this year. Fortunately it’s weather and not so much climate, although both are always in flux. Hopefully we will soon have a repeat of Sunday’s weather, but the 10 day forecast says no. However they’ve been wrong before.

  77. What’s up with all this “warmer spring” stuff. I live in Alaska. The World Famous Kenai River is still FROZEN SOLID as of today 4-5-09. I have only lived here for 22 years but this is the longest I can remember it still being frozen over. I don’t mean just a little ice, I mean solid with no signs of thawing soon!!!!!!!
    The State of Alaska DOT usually puts “loads limits” on the highways in the spring because of the frost in the roads. As of today there are no load limits on the roads. A contractor friend of mine is in his mid 60’s and he can’t ever remember the load limints not being on by now!!!!
    Since March 15 we have received 8 to 15 feet, that’s feet not inches, of fresh snow in the mountains around our area!
    I’m no scientist but I’m certainly questioning this whole “Global Warming” stuff!!!!

  78. >>Spinning Standby. As I understand it, wind power still saves some
    >> energy as the fuel demand for most generators depends on the load

    Perhaps, but all the capital costs for the standby power station are still there. The site, the equipment, the personnel – all have to be present to keep a power station on spinning standby. Thus, you have instantly doubled the cost of power generation, and not saved much CO2. Perhaps trebbled the cost, because wind turbines are hardly cheap per Mwh.

    >>Variations in wind power are no different for a large grid than
    >>variations in load due to starting/stopping millions of motors
    >>or turning on tvs or computers

    Sorry, you are wrong here. Variability in ”demand” is predictable and short-lived. In the UK we have an enourmous pumped-water hydro system at Dinorwig that can soak up all that extra demand for up to 5 hours.

    Variability in electrical ”supply” from wind power is another problem entirely. Firstly, it is not always predictable 12 hours in advance (the time it takes to start a fossil-powered plant). Secondly, wind and solar power can go off for weeks on end, which no storage system (the usual reply) can cope with.

    This is fine when wind and solar power represents 2% of supply, but a real problem when it hits 20% of supply – grids cannot cope with such large outages. The New York blackout was precipitated by just one power line going down, and a cascade of outages followed. As you said in your post:

    ” What really gave (the grid) fits was when we had to stop that motor (genetrator) during an emergency – when it tripped off-line they had some problems.”

    Precisely (and with a little 7.5 Mw generator too), and this is the problem that Spain has had with wind variability (with only 10% wind generation) – it nearly trips the grid, and they have resorted to ‘brownouts’ to keep it running. And I have to say that a deep brownout plays havock with computers, they really don’t like low voltages.

    Tidal is not much better, as it goes up and down as often as a whore’s drawers. No grid could cope with that.

    >>Is any kind of electrical storage used to smooth out
    >>fluctuations in the wind velocity, and if so, is is batteries
    >>or something else?

    This is the great unspoken Achillies Heel of all renewable power – that there is no backup system. I don’t think people realise how much energy we use.

    Pumped water hydro is the most viable option, but to keep the UK going for two weeks, we would need 1400 Dinorwigs (Google, Dinorwig power). Not only would the capital cost be astronomic, but there are not enough hills in the UK.

    Batteries – I think I calulated that the battery would have to be the size of Coventry and Leicester combined.

    Flywheels. Ditto, and you would not get me within 50 miles of such a manic device.

    Compressed air – these systems use fossil fuels, which defeats the object somewhat. The energy losses are high too.

    In short, there is no storage system that is going to backup wind, solar or wave power for a week or a fortnight (the longest period in the UK without wind in the last few years was one whole month). This makes most renewables worse than useless, as they will potentially bring down governments and kill millions. Can you imagine the USA in deep mid-winter, without power for a week?? How many would perish??

    This needs to be hammered home to the Al Gore fraternity, that they are playing with the lives of millions in their promotion of renewables. In fact, they could be classed as the most dangerous organisation in the world, far more dangerous than Osama, Kim Jong-il and Armadinnerjacket combined.

    .

  79. Most people look at a tree in a forest and assume the whole forest is made up of the same tree. The same can be said for global warming. The oceans are like a giant temperature regulation system for the planet. In order for a current of warm water to flow from the equator towards the poles there needs to be temperature differences of a certain amount. When you disrupt these temperatures, either by cooling or warming you can, in fact, cause abnormal temperatures.

    In other words people assume that global warming is a constant when in fact it is a variable. It can cause colder temperatures as well as warmer. Basically not a over all warming but a temperature imbalance that can be disastrous to the climate as a whole.

    So don’t think of it as early spring or colder winters, think of it as a house without proper air flow. Some rooms are hot while others are cold and no matter how long the furnace/ac runs some rooms just aren’t livable.

  80. Mention of the Spanish wind generated electricity reminded me that you can see this in real time.
    https://demanda.ree.es/eolica.html
    Note that the vertical scale is adjusted day to day such that the graphed output nicely fits the screen. The figure to note is the current output as a % of the turbine generating capacity.
    Also note that (obviously) there is no relationship to the total current damand, which you can see here.
    https://demanda.ree.es/demanda.html

  81. that’s happen in the northern

    in tropical country, we suffered more heavy rain. Flood are become more deadly.

  82. Another provocative post. Anthony’s numbers resemble a moonsot.

    “>> The Chinese could:
    >> 1. Start selling, in all markets, their US Treasury Bonds.
    They dare not ”

    The Chinese own $2 trillion in US debt.

    This year we will try to sell $2.5 trillion, GB 500 billion. The Chinese are freaking out.

    We are insane.

  83. This Just In – Stupidity & Greed Cause Global Warming

    I’m glad to see that Cap & Trade is circling the drain. I find it surprising how long this global warming baloney is hanging on. It must be the promise of power and money.

    Meanwhile, Cleveland, Ohio is bracing for a foot of snow today and tomorrow; less than a week before Easter.

    Scott –

  84. If you read poetry through the centuries, then you will notice how poets three hundred years ago, wrote poems about spring appearing in january and snowing in the summer. Nature are very well documented in poetry.

    Nature is unpredictible. Always was and always will. Humans can’t do anything about it. Maybe Al Gore wake up in the morning and think that he is the centre of the universe. That he can control the sun. Good luck to him. : )

  85. I think because of our impact on the earth and probably the changes earth has in rotation with the sun that we can no longer depend on the months to tell us what season we are in or should be in. When i was a kid April was definitely spring and it was always raining, but now its still snowing at points in April. so we should depend on the months, they’re just there to show how time has passed not how seasons have passed.

  86. Pierre Gosselin (08:00:47) :

    Ron de Haan
    Shhhhhhhhhh…
    Mentioning sunsüpots here will cause spots to appear. It’s Anthony’s Gore effect.

    Really? We’re getting around five in. of snow today in SE Michigan.

    SUNSPOTS! SUNSPOTS! SUNSPOTS! SUNSPOTS! SUNSPOTS!

    ;^)

  87. jillkorg (06:53:36) :

    I think because of our impact on the earth and probably the changes earth has in rotation with the sun that we can no longer depend on the months to tell us what season we are in or should be in. When i was a kid April was definitely spring and it was always raining, but now its still snowing at points in April. so we should depend on the months, they’re just there to show how time has passed not how seasons have passed.

    There are always things like this happening. There really is nothing to see here.

  88. .
    >>Mention of the Spanish wind generated electricity reminded
    >>me that you can see this in real time.
    >>https://demanda.ree.es/eolica.html

    Hey, that’s a really good resource. Shame the UK does not have anything similar. Can we get monthly graphs on it??

    The thing that initially stands out is the diurnal variation – can you imagine trying to cope with that?

    Its like ordering flour for a bakery, and the supplier saying, “well, we might deliver 200kg tomorrow, or perhaps 50kg, or maybe none at all.” I think most shoppers would go to another bakery…

    .

  89. ralph ellis (00:37:05)

    You wrote, quoting me: ” ” What really gave (the grid) fits was when we had to stop that motor (genetrator) during an emergency – when it tripped off-line they had some problems.” “

    Mr. Ellis, I request that you do not mis-quote me by inserting words in my statement. I did not use the words “(the grid)”, nor did I use the word “(genetrator)”. My statement stands as I wrote it at (16:29:20), because I was referring to a MOTOR.

    In general, for future reference, it is never a good idea to add words to a direct quote. Deletion is occasionally acceptable, but only if one uses an ellipsis “. . .” Adding or deleting words to a quote can get the writer into serious trouble.

    My actual quote is:

    “What really gave HLP fits was when we had to stop that motor during an emergency. We called them to let them know as soon as we could, but when it tripped off-line they had some problems.”

    Roger E. Sowell, Esq.

  90. Aron (07:45:45) : A deep cooling would cut productivity in northern hemisphere farming while increasing drought elsewhere.

    I think you will find that cold cuts productivity everywhere. Maybe more so at extreme latitudes than at the equator, but that would be extreme latitudes of either hemisphere. Australia and Argentina would have issues with grain production too…

    Europeans, Chinese, North Americans and Japanese will be more reliant on importing food from southern nations

    Don’t know how to break it to you, but North America would be one of the least food short places. We make vastly more food than we eat. Massive quantities are exported. Even with a 50% reduction, North America could feed itself. It is those folks who import from us that would have an issue…

    Food production is global, and global producers will only export what is over their domestic needs. Australia, Argentina, U.S.A., Canada, Ukraine, and to a lesser extent S.E. Asia for rice are the major food exporting locations (with Brazil adding capacity fast). Everybody else is likely to have an issue (more or less in direct proportion to their present import levels). But if you think the USA or Argentina are going to be exporting grain while their own population is going hungry, think again…

    We better let politicians know that they need a contingency plan to get developing nations to improve their irrigation of lands and farming method otherwise everyone suffers.

    There are already such programs everywhere that produces food. Agricultural improvement is one of the key programs for just about every government on the planet with a fairly large number of the worlds Universities being “ag” schools. Texas A&M are the “Aggies” not for quaint cultural reasons but because that is their purpose, to improve agriculture. Ditto U.C. Davis (and U.C. Riverside that started in Citrus and still has a few thousand acres IIRC) and dozens of other universities all over the place…

    Colonisation is no longer a possibility so rapid co-operation and development is the only option.

    Actually, eating the cows and pigs is a faster and traditional option. Then you eat the grain that would have been fed to the livestock and it goes a lot further. 10 times further for cows. 3 times for pigs. (That is, the ‘feed conversion ratio’ for a cow is about 10:1 – it takes 10 pounds of feed to make one pound of cow). You actually get more than that since the grain is ‘dry’ but the meat is ‘wet’ so in reality you can feed about 20 people on the grain for each one eating meat today. Basically, we could get by if we just added a couple of meatless days each week.

    This does not mean zero meat… Ruminants, like cows, can eat the leaves and stalks (“silage”) that humans can not digest. A well run farm can produce meat and grain and make more food than if making only grain, thanks to ruminants ability to eat what we can not. FWIW, rabbits are a very very small ruminant of the ‘hindgut’ fermenter type (cows are ‘foregut’ fermenters) so it is possible to use this system on a very small scale. Which is part of why rabbits are in the livestock exhibits at many county fairs.

    This is also why goats are so popular. They can eat darned near any plant, make more milk per pound than just about anything else (one goat makes more than one family can consume, thus the popularity of cheese making) along with wool / fleece and all in a package that can be as small as 20 lbs for the dwarf breeds.

    So if we ever really really had a food shortage, one of the simplest improvements we could make would be to take all the millions of tons of straw and crop wastes that we just let rot each year and feed it to ruminants, but keep the grain for ourselves. (Think of all the lawn clippings and leaves we ‘dispose’ of…) We don’t do this today because it’s cheaper to feed them grains than to truck all the lettuce trimmings out of the lettuce field and over to a feed lot; but that could change in an emergency.

    BTW, there is also the choice of the “victory garden”. I grow a fair amount of my families vegetables on a plot about 25 feet by 40 feet or so. I’m still working off the green beans I canned at the end of last season and I’ve already got fresh green bean sprouts up for about a week now. I’ll likely have carryover of excess canned beans this year… Look at all those lawns and think lunch. Yes, it can be done and has been done before. Oh, and there are plenty of cold tolerant plants that could be grown. Kale grows under light snow, for instance. Peas also are cold tolerant as are Fava Beans. It’s a long list…

    And finally, you can grow about 10 times as much food per acre in a green house as in an open field. All you need to do is apply power. If we head into a Dalton Minimum type even with very cold weather crimping food supplies, expect to see an explosion of greenhouses. So coal and nuclear power can be turned into food.

    There is no shortage of food and we can produce a great deal more fairly easily. We most likely could not do this in less than a couple of growing seasons, so it is not a coping behaviour for a catastrophic event (like a volcanic winter) but it will work fine for slow onset events like global cooling.

    And it does not require taking anyone else’s stuff or getting cooperation from any other nation. You can do it in your back yard on your own (and I do… as a hobby.)

  91. >>Mr. Ellis, I request that you do not mis-quote me by inserting
    >>words in my statement

    So you were using a ruddy great motor instead of a generator?? Whatever, but the result is the same – electrical suppliers (the grid in the UK) do not like large changes in either supply or demand.

    That is why wind power is so useless, and why THE DANISH HAVE NEVER USED ANY OF THEIR WIND POWER, despite being a leading producer of wind power (they sell it to the Scandinavians instead).

    http://www.thomastelford.com/journals/DocumentLibrary/CIEN.158.2.66.pdf

    .

  92. Roger Sowell (11:53:12) : What would be the effect of filling in the Arctic Ocean, so that warm ocean currents could not melt away the ice. Would this produce a polar region similar to Antarctica, with a permanent ice cap?

    You don’t need to fill in the whole thing, just block enough of the currents that it can’t melt from below (such as the Bering St.) It would freeze through fairly directly and prompt the next ice age. Not a great idea…

    Has anyone heard of such a proposal?

    Not me.

  93. ralph ellis (14:23:12) :
    .
    >> The Chinese could:
    >> 1. Start selling, in all markets, their US Treasury Bonds.

    They dare not – it would cause a run on the value of the US dollar, and reduce the value of their immense dollar holdings.

    Um, no. See:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/03/18/chinese-food-fight/

    for a simple way they can do this and links to places showing they are thinking along these lines. They also broached the idea of a world currency as an alternative to the dollar… They know the game and they can play it very very well. There has already been a failed auction of UK Guilts and a US Treasuries auction that succeeded, but with higher rates than expected. This tells me the Chinese are already cutting back. They have also gone on a spending spree doing things like handing $10B to Petrobras to fund the completion of a new oil field (on the proviso that they get first dibs on the oil…) and made a pitch for a few billions worth of an Australian minerals miner.

    It doesn’t take too many $10B to $100B dollar mineral plays to soak up a $Trillion … They can do this inside of a year without breaking a sweat. (Heck, I think I could get it done in under 3 months with barely a ripple visible if I had too – and was employed by China to do it.) Roll $250 B into shorter maturities so it looks like you are still buying. Divert $250 B into buying miners and oils. Repeat second month. Repeat 3 rd month. You now have $250 B in 6 month or less T bills. Sit back and clip coupons for 6 months or swap them for Euro bonds…

    Oh, and just for fun, the IMF has been given the go ahead to sell 400 TONS of gold to fund global banking socialism (my editorial…) and they have specifically said they will do it institutionally so as not to disrupt the world gold price. So all China has to do really is offer to help them with their little problem of finding a buyer… and you can soak up another $10B right there.

    There are also a bunch of countries activating currency swaps with the Fed (I think Mexico was just announced) so with little effort they could “help” these countries by swapping Tbills for that countries bonds or cash – then bleed some of those back into the broad global market for other currencies if desired.

    Right now the world banking system is desperate for “tier one” capital, and that is what TBills and Bonds are. They can make any deals they want for any collateral in the world (often at 50 cents or less on the dollar for real estate right now) and dump a few hundred billion in one long weekend… just like the Fed has already done. So you go to Citigroup or UBS and say “I’ll give you $100B of US Treasuries and you give me a portfolio of these selected stocks, bonds, gold, real estate holdings, foreign currency deposits, etc.” Want to buy the best logistics properties in the entire world? Prologis needs to raise a few billion to rollover some debt paper (same is true for many REITS globally). So they can just ‘help’ the REIT sector and end up owning some of the best land in the world on the cheap, then they would love some inflation (dollar collapse) to raise the value of their real estate in nominal terms…

    BTW, the reason a bank would give you cash for a T bill or bond is because the fractional reserve banking system lets them create money. If they have $1B of “Tier One TBills Reserves” that can create (depending on the reserve ratio required) on the order of $5B to $10B of ‘deposits’ fairly directly (through a process only of interest to economists, so I’ll skip it…). So turning a few hundred $B of Treasuries into something like Euros, Yen, Sterling, Francs, Reals, and Kroner could be done rather directly and almost overnight with little impact on the market price of Treasuries or the Dollar. Basically you say “I have $100B of Treasuries and I’d like you to turn that into a $100B checking account denominated in {insert currency desired here}” sign some papers and walk out with your checkbook… (At least if you are a sovereign country dealing with a money center bank…)

  94. .
    >>They also broached the idea of a world currency as an alternative to the dollar…

    I’m sure they would, because they know that this would cause a hell of a problem for the USA (economic war, just as the article says). The USA has ‘reserve currency’ dollars floating all over the world. If all these were repatriated and turned into World Dabloons (or whatever name they may get), the US dollar will tumble mightily.

    Whatever happens, the USA has a problem. Its currency has been bouyed up by Chinese bond purchases, so if China stops buying and starts sellin, the dollar falls. Yes, China can play a cute game and pretend not really to be selling, but at some point confidence in the dollar may be lost and it will fall over a cliff.

    Interesting times lie ahead, and not only in climate change.

    .

    In fact, these issues are intimately linked. There is a large body of people, including the EU parliament, who are looking to a One World Government. This is why they have been looking for ‘World Issues’ that can demonstrate that the world needs unifying.

    This is why we have Global Warming, instead of regional warming. They want to impress us that everything is global and needs a World Government to fix the problem. Same with the Global Banking Crisis. This is all driven at a high level, which is why all the media are playing the same tune.

    The New World Order needs a One World Government.

    .

  95. “Right now the world banking system is desperate for “tier one” capital, and that is what TBills and Bonds are. They can make any deals they want for any collateral in the world (often at 50 cents or less on the dollar for real estate right now) and dump a few hundred billion in one long weekend… just like the Fed has already done.”

    OT but of common interest. Bernake(sp?) has said the Fed will soak up $1 trillion in T bonds if necessary, but it was reported recently that he has not begun to do so. My feeling is this adds inflationary pressure, if not instantly, at following offerings. Granted the huge increases in debt are largely only budgeted, to be spent, perhaps, in the future, but what risk for Stagflation exists in your opinion?

  96. Odd things are happening in North Dakota. We’re coming out of a Dec-March period that was 5 degrees below the norm (that means it was really cold), and we’re just shy of our snowiest winter ever in Bismarck. But the robins showed up in droves several weeks ago. We still have a least a foot of snow left to melt, so maybe the lack of food sources has caused the birds to concentrate, but I can’t recall a spring when their numbers seemed so great.

    As for the arrival of Spring, given the variability from year to year, I don’t know how anyone can identify a trend. I have a crab apple tree that over the past 20 years has bloomed as early as April 14 and as late as May 10.

  97. The latest NCDC figures show Jan-Mar 2009 to be significantly warmer in the West, mostly normal elsewhere with Maine + N. Dakota cooler than average.

    Most places, apart from the most Northerly Mid-West states are drier or much drier than average.

    So 2009 in the US is shaping up as slighly warmer than 2008.

  98. E.M.Smith (00:29:00) :

    Roger Sowell (11:53:12) : What would be the effect of filling in the Arctic Ocean, so that warm ocean currents could not melt away the ice. Would this produce a polar region similar to Antarctica, with a permanent ice cap?

    You don’t need to fill in the whole thing, just block enough of the currents that it can’t melt from below (such as the Bering St.) It would freeze through fairly directly and prompt the next ice age. Not a great idea…

    Has anyone heard of such a proposal?

    Not me.

    I wonder if John Holdren is working on something like that ;-)
    [snip – OT -see new story on main page]

    Larry

  99. My actual quote is:

    “What really gave HLP [the grid] fits was when we had to stop that motor [generator] during an emergency. We called them to let them know as soon as we could, but when it tripped off-line they had some problems.”

    Roger E. Sowell, Esq.

    Counselor, I think further research would show that HLP indeed is part of the ERCOT ‘gridded’ electric supply system here in Texas. Interconnected electrical systems provide benefits by what is termed (in the industry) “greater reliability and system stability”.

    Adding wind power eats into this margin and reduces that which is
    termed “power system security”, and ‘security’ does not mean ‘physical security’ e.g. putting up fences and locking doors, but rather the ability to main 60 cycle-per-second (Hz) operation across an interconnected region (‘grid’) AND also maintain a determined power ‘flow’ from generation facililties to load centers (business and residential customers) as well as between even larger interconnnected regions.

    It is NO SMALL TRICK to 1) maintain the spinning synchronization of power-producing machinery (rotary generation equipment, whether steam or hydro) across a ‘coupled’ interconnected network (again, ‘the vaunted grid’), hence, terms were created to express the degree to which such a system was ‘secure’ from impulses and disturbances. 2) Secondly, along with this spinning synchronization POWER FLOW must also me maintained in a determined, specified and controllable manner across the system and from each source of generation, without over-demanding from each source.

    Lets educate, starting with this opening excerpted from: http://www.pserc.wisc.edu/ecow/get/publicatio/1997public/Redisieee.pdf

    “Power system stability problems are caused by many
    factors. The generation pattern and load pattern, which
    represent generation and load at every bus, are among the
    leading factors. A poorly scheduled generation or load pattern
    can reduce a system’s ability to transfer power while
    maintaining its security and reliability. Intensive studies on
    the economic dispatch problem assume that the system can
    maintain its security and reliability. The optimal power flow
    (OPF) program does consider both economic dispatch and
    stability, but it requires heavy computations. With open
    access transmission in the future deregulated environment,
    poorly scheduled generation patterns and load patterns from
    competitive bidding, will be seen more and more often. These
    patterns might cause many stability problems.”

    Primer relating to ‘Maintaining Security’ (warning: dry content):
    http://www.iea.org/Textbase/work/2004/transmission/ray2.pdf
    .
    .
    .

  100. .
    >>A poorly scheduled generation or load pattern
    >>can reduce a system’s ability to transfer power while
    >>maintaining its security and reliability

    Indeed. And I wonder why we have not heard more from the poor beleaguered grid operators who have to deal with this ridiculous renewable power. We know they are having problems, because grid instability is increasing in countries with a lot of wind power.

    So where is the government report on the situation? This is, after all, not simply an a problem of electrical security but national security too. A nation without power is open to all kinds of security problems, from civil unrest to terrorism and even to invasion.

    .

Comments are closed.