Tag Archives: Climate sensitivity

Yet another study shows lower climate sensitivity

Global warming less extreme than feared? Policymakers are attempting to contain global warming at less than 2°C. New estimates from a Norwegian project on climate calculations indicate this target may be more attainable than many experts have feared. Internationally renowned … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 187 Comments

Does The Effect From The Cause Affect The Cause?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s been a recent paper claiming a long-term correlation between CO2 and sea level, discussed here at WUWT. The paper implies that CO2 controls temperature and thus indirectly sea level. I thought I might follow … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , | 142 Comments

Bethlehem and the rat-hole problem

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In the closing minutes of the final plenary of the U.N.’s Doha climate summit, when no one else had anything further to add, I spent a few seconds telling the delegates something that the bad … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, COP conferences, The Rat-hole problem | Tagged , , , , , | 544 Comments

Why doesn’t the AR5 SOD’s climate sensitivity range reflect its new aerosol estimates?

This article is a detailed complement to Matt Ridley’s Op-Ed today in the Wall Street Journal: Cooling Down the Fears of Climate Change Evidence points to a further rise of just 1°C by 2100. The net effect on the planet … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Climate sensitivity, IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , , , , , , | 83 Comments

An Interim Look At Intermediate Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Whenever I find myself growing grim about the mouth; whenever it is a damp, drizzly November in my soul; whenever I find myself involuntarily pausing before coffin warehouses, and bringing up the rear of every … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 92 Comments

New paper on climate sensitivity estimates 1.1 ± 0.4 °C for a doubling of CO2

This new paper (in review at the discussions section) at Climate of the Past has some interesting approaches  using Oxygen 18 isotope records from benthic foraminiferas acquired in Deep Sea Drilling project (DSDP) on the Kerguelen Plateau off the coast … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 152 Comments

An independent constraint on climate sensitivity

Guest post by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Abstract Global CO2 emissions per unit increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration provide an independent constraint on climate sensitivity over the timescale of the available data (1960-2008), suggesting that, in the short term and … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 169 Comments

BEST, Volcanoes and Climate Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve argued in a variety of posts that the usual canonical estimate of climate sensitivity, which is 3°C of warming for a doubling of CO2, is an order of magnitude too large. Today, at the … Continue reading

Posted in Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, Climate sensitivity, Volcanoes | Tagged , , , , , , | 89 Comments

Throwing down the gauntlet on reproducibility in Climate Science – Forest et al. (2006)

After spending a year trying to get the data from the author without success, Nic Lewis has sent a letter to the editor of Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) and has written to me to ask that I bring attention to … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling, Peer review | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 82 Comments

A Demonstration of Negative Climate Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, after my brief digression to some other topics, I’ve finally been able to get back to the reason that I got the CERES albedo and radiation data in the first place. This was to … Continue reading

Posted in Albedo, Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 113 Comments

Time Lags in the Climate System

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Did you ever sit on a hot sand beach and dig your hand down into the sand? You don’t have to dig very far before you get to cool sand … but even though it’s … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , | 118 Comments

Observations on TOA Forcing vs Temperature

I recently wrote three posts (first, second, and third), regarding climate sensitivity. I wanted to compare my results to another dataset. Continued digging has led me to the CERES monthly global albedo dataset from the Terra satellite. It’s an outstanding set, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , | 182 Comments

Sun and Clouds are Sufficient

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In my previous post, A Longer Look at Climate Sensitivity, I showed that the match between lagged net sunshine (the solar energy remaining after albedo reflections) and the observational temperature record is quite good. However, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , | 219 Comments

A Longer Look at Climate Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach After I published my previous post, “An Observational Estimate of Climate Sensitivity“, a number of people objected that I was just looking at the average annual cycle. On a time scale of decades, they said, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , | 228 Comments

An Observational Estimate of Climate Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach “Climate sensitivity” is the name for the measure of how much the earth’s surface is supposed to warm for a given change in what is called “forcing”. A change in forcing means a change in … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , | 252 Comments

Why there cannot be a global warming consensus

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In a previous post, I explained that many of the climate-extremists’ commonest arguments are instances of logical fallacies codified by Aristotle in his Sophistical Refutations 2300 years ago. Not the least of these is the … Continue reading

Posted in Global warming | Tagged , , , , , , , | 234 Comments

Lower Climate Sensitivity Estimates: New Good News

Guest post by Chip Knappenberger, republished with permission from Master Resource (now on WUWT’s blogroll) “A collection of research results have been published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature in recent months that buoys my hopes for a low-end climate sensitivity.” … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 69 Comments

Triangular Fuzzy Numbers and the IPCC

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about “triangular fuzzy numbers” regarding the IPCC and their claims about how the climate system works. The IPCC, along with the climate establishment in general, make what to me is a … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 106 Comments

Feedback about feedbacks and suchlike fooleries

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Responses to my post of December 28 about climate sensitivity have been particularly interesting. This further posting answers some of the feedback. My earlier posting explained how the textbooks establish that if albedo and insolation … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 244 Comments

Sense and sensitivity

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Reed Coray’s post here on Boxing Day, commenting on my post of 6 December, questions whether the IPCC and science textbooks are right that without any greenhouse gases the Earth’s surface temperature would be 33 … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 139 Comments

Senseless about sensitivity

The speculative press release below is from the University of Gothenburg.  After having a paper published earlier this year  in Science that argues climate sensitivity might be lower than the IPCC stated in AR4, we have a new press release … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 46 Comments

Senior NCAR scientist admits: “Quantifying climate sensitivity from real world data cannot even be done using present-day data…”

Whoo boy… just a few days ago it was argued in a new peer reviewed paper published in Science that climate sensitivity might be lower than the IPCC stated in AR4. Now we have this damning admission from Dr. Tom … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Climategate | Tagged , , , , , , , | 75 Comments

New study in Science shows climate sensitivity overestimated

From Oregon State University  some news the team and especially Kevin Trenberth just really don’t want to hear. I covered this on a tip from Dr. Pat Michaels back on Nov 9th titled: Climate sensitivity- lowering the IPCC “fat tail” and … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , | 95 Comments

Climate sensitivity- lowering the IPCC “fat tail”

By Dr. Pat Michaels at World Climate Report A new, lower estimate of climate sensitivity There is word circulating that a paper soon to appear in Science magazine concludes that the climate sensitivity—how much the earth’s average temperature will rise … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 137 Comments

1 K or not 1 K? That is the question

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley I am very grateful for the many thoughtful postings in response to my outline of the fundamental theoretical upper bound of little more than 1.2 K on climate sensitivity imposed by the process-engineering theory of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 191 Comments

Monckton on “pulling Planck out of a hat”

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley My commentary written for Remote Sensing on the empirical determination of climate sensitivity, published by the splendid Anthony Watts some days ago, has aroused a great deal of interest among his multitudes of readers. It … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , | 189 Comments

Monckton’s letter to the journal Remote Sensing

Christopher Monckton writes in email: I sent the attached commentary to the journal a week back and have not had so much as an acknowledgement. So do feel free to use it. It is reproduced below. Readers may recall of … Continue reading

Posted in Peer review, Spencer-Braswell and Dessler | Tagged , , , , | 117 Comments

New paper claims a value one seventh of the IPCC best estimate for Climate Sensitivity for a CO2 doubling

Paul Ostergaard writes via email: Here is an interesting new paper that Miklos Zagoni has pointed me to via Judith Curry’s blog. This researcher in Germany has carried out a spectroscopic analysis of the impact of CO2 and other greenhouse … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Climate sensitivity | Tagged , | 90 Comments

Pielke Sr. on Zeke’s zinger

Guest post by Dr. Roger Pielke Senior Missing The Major Point Of “What Is Climate Sensitivity” There is a post by Zeke on Blackboard titled Agreeing [See also the post on Climate Etc  Agreeing(?)]. Zeke starts the post with the text “My … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 113 Comments