Over the past few years the Arctic expert, Professor Peter Wadhams, has strongly predicted an ‘ice-free’ Arctic no later than 2016. Late this year he changed it to 2020 without apparently giving an explanation.
Guest post by WUWT reader Jimbo
Peter Wadhams is a Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge and an expert on Arctic sea ice and waves. He has studied the Arctic since 1970. In the last few years he has predicted that the Arctic will be ‘ice-free’ no later than September 2016. (It is generally accepted that an ‘ice-free’ Arctic is 1 million km2 or less, as it is very difficult to melt the thick multi-year ice in the Canadian Archipelago).
Late this year Prof. Wadhams changed his prediction of an ice-free Arctic to 2020.
Q) Has Professor Wadhams given the reason[s] for his changed prediction? As a ‘denier’ I just want to know so that I can have a better understanding of when we are likely to see an ‘ice-free’ Arctic.
Below are his repeated predictions of an ‘ice-free’ Arctic no later than 2016.
Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
Dr Maslowski’s model, along with his claim that the Arctic sea ice is in a “death spiral”, were controversial but Prof Wadhams, a leading authority on the polar regions, said the calculations had him “pretty much persuaded.”
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
—–
BBC News – 27 August 2012
Professor Peter Wadhams, from Cambridge University, told BBC News: “A number of scientists who have actually been working with sea ice measurement had predicted some years ago that the retreat would accelerate and that the summer Arctic would become ice-free by 2015 or 2016.
“I was one of those scientists – and of course bore my share of ridicule for daring to make such an alarmist prediction.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19393075
—–
Guardian – 17 September 2012
Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
——-
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” he said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4084c8ee-fa36-11e2-98e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2hozOJWog
——-
The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
“The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
——-
Arctic News – June 27, 2012
My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/06/when-sea-ice-is-gone.html
——-
TheRealNews – 29 May 2014
Transcript [Youtube] http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=11899
[Q] WORONCZUK: And, Peter, what’s your take? Do you think that we’ve already passed the point of no return in terms of controlling polar ice cap melting?
[A] WADHAMS: Yes, I think we have. A few years ago, I predicted that the summer sea ice–that’s the September minimum–would go to zero by about 2015. And at that stage, it was only really one model that agreed with me. My prediction was based on observations from satellites and from measurements from submarines of ice thickness, which I’ve been doing from British subs, and Americans have been doing the same from American subs. And the trend was so clear and so definite that it would go to zero by 2015 that I felt it was safe to make that prediction, and I still think it is, because next year, although this year we don’t expect things to retreat much further than last, next year will be an El Niño year, which is a warmer year, and I think it will go to zero.
I knew earlier this year he would change his mind. I was just waiting for the reason he would give, but I can’t find it.
He doesn’t need a reason. He’s one of the true believers.
If he really wants to be taken seriously, and paid appearance money for TV interviews, he needs to start wearing a bow tie like Bill Nye.
Actually, he just needs an accusation, namely, that you are a heathen if you do not believe and parrot word-for-word whatever he says whenever he says it.
He also needs your money, you know, for “subs” and so on… but he has it already, so that is not a real priority.
Only a denier would ask for explanations and evidence.
Deniers are so rude to science!
If it doesn’t talk like a scientist; or think or reason like a scientist, then can we call it a scientist?
Ian H
You ask
I don’t know the answer to your question, but the behaviour of Wadhams (reported above by Jimbo) is typical of “climate scientists”. They often alter their statements without explanation when their predictions are reaching the point of total failure.
Predictions of “climate scientists” that are on record but are now said to not have existed include
Greatest warming would be at both polar regions (The first IPCC Report).
The 1998 El Nino was a “sign of things to come” (very many “climate scientists” in 1998).
Within a few years winter snowfall in Britain will become “a very rare and exciting event” and “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” (David Viner in 2000).
“Committed warming” would cause warming at a rate of 0.2°C per decade over the first two decades of this century (The fourth IPCC Report).
Warming from “well mixed greenhouse gases” in the tropics would be 2 to 3 times greater at altitude than at the surface; i.e. the so-called Hot Spot (The fourth IPCC Report).
Climate models provide accurate predictions (The fifth IPCC Report).
etc.
Richard
Richard
Don’t forget the UKMO one when they got their super duper mega mega computer.
Something along the lines of ‘ 4 of the 5 yrs after 2009 would be warmer than 1998’. Mind you, with the introduction of HadCRU 3+n, they are trying hard to get there.
Yes he seem to be one of those who forgot that Thou shalt have no other gods before me but instead he seems to have turn his Faith elsewhere…. maybe to The new Faith of IPCC: Humans are Universe´s centre
I almost forgot. Here is a commenter who said that they has emailed Wadhams about his earlier predictions. I cannot vouch for the veracity so maybe if they are around they could supply an image capture of his correspondence with Wadhams.
Some people never learned Theories of Science…. all they learnt was how to get more funds for their own behalf… 🙂
Where are the warmists today defending this Arctic sea ice expert? They are never around when you need them.
Here is another sea ice expert who got it wrong for an ice-free Arctic for 2013. He changed his mind and upped the prediction to 2019 – using a model of the complicated climate and extrapolating. When will people stop listening to these ‘experts’?
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts,” – Dr. Richard Feynman – physicist – 1966
So an ice-free Arctic isn’t really ice-free because the multi-year ice will never melt?
This means that all of the Rolli Polli Bears will have to congregate at Ellesmere during the summer months as will their main food supply The Furry Wurry Seals. At least it will be in the shallows of the Arctic Ocean and the seals can hunt clams and fish. It will also make it easier to count the Bears
But, they are the authority. No analysis is needed…
Ties in nicely with Tim Ball’s article about “Academia”.
Look at the ozone hole. It is fine at 110.1 Dobson units, but at 109.9 it’s a HOLE.
That’s what I was thinking — ice-free except for where it isn’t ice-free.
Because he’s a crackpot.
Not only sceptics acknowledge that.
He is a figure of fun.
But the joke is on the rest of us, funding his vacations on “subs”.
British and American submarines, why not Russian, Swedish and Nowegian? Or don’t they go in for this warming rubbish.
Swedes and Norwegians don’t have nuclear subs able to operate under the ice and the Russians aren’t likely to share any information they have about a strategically important region. Putin must be a bit miffed that sea ice isn’t retreating as predicted, he had big plans for claiming the pole as Russian along with it’s resources.
Russia plants flag on arctic sea floor http://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/aug/02/russia.arctic
the Arctic ice will keep recovering until this goes full scale again. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/586ae5c0-487c-11e4-ad19-00144feab7de.html#axzz3LibdfaZm
Yeah, the Russians must be stupid for building all those new nuclear powered icebreakers.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Russia-awards-icebreaker-contracts-0905147.html
No, they’re brilliant. It’s always been “possible” to transit from the North Sea to the North Pacific in August and September, it just wasn’t economically practical due to insurance rates and the possibility of burning through too much fuel pushing all the ice-sludge out of the way. The Russians are exploiting the global-warming meme by building a couple huge nuclear ice-breakers, and charging a “reasonable” fee to insure that you can take the shortcut without too much risk
A friend of mine went on a trip to the Antarctic on a Russian Nuke Ice-breaker. It was a tourist trip. Yeah…they “lease” their icebreakers out to tour organizers. He said the ship was incredible. They took about 100 folks down to lay on the beaches with the seals.
The great thing about being a well paid prophet is that prophets are seldom held ot account for their lack of accuracy.
Just like economists.
True. But politicians are so far ahead of economists in terms of lack of accountability that, by comparison, the shortcomings of economists are virtually negligible.
And journalists.
He is only a prophet to profit from it
eeven earlier predictions. In 2001, wadhams said that “swithin a decade”, there would be regular summer access.
http://web.archive.org/web/20130118115246/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=22250
From 2002
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2002-02/ns-am022702.php
“There will be anarchy as northern seas open up to shipping”
Anarchy…Commerce…What’s the difference???
/snark
Les Johnson,
I have that earlier prediction but it relates to the North-West passage. Below are other Arctic predictions / speculations / projections from Professor Peter Wadhams. PS there is nothing unusual about the North Pole being ‘ice-free’ as I will show after this comment post.
Apparently there is nothing unusual about an ‘ice-free’ North Pole, yet experts keep telling us that it has not happened in millions of years / unprecedented and all that. Why are they experts and I’m not?
For those who want to raise the issue of Polynyas, here it is. I don’t deny them, but why did Wadhams not state clearly that this is normal? Polynyas are areas of the Arctic sea ice which is made up of persistently open water.
Takes much longer to cool down? Bunk. It cools much faster in the absence of ice. How do they get away with such basic errors of physics?
I also see they note the increase is water temperature. But there is no net gain in heat in the Arctic. It is past the ‘neutral line’ and is a net loser of heat. Claiming that the melted ice will let in enough additional heat to make the Arctic water a net accumulator is also not going to fly. The ice melt is from the ingress of warm water from the south. Now that it stopped it is refreezing again. What a surprise. The claims for the loss of sea ice being caused by ‘global warming’ are as many as they are unsupportable with the facts.
Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“Last year we saw huge areas of the ocean open up, which has never been experienced before.
I love these guys. To them “Never having happend in the last 30ish years” apparently translates to “has never been experienced before”. And somehow, the “Journalist” who is publishing this doesn’t have the guts to call them on this BS.
He always said it would be 2020, we have always been at war with Eastasia, not Eurasia, and chocolate rations have been increased from 30 gms to 25 gms per week. All is doubleplusgood!
So…it’s BETTER than we thought, in Bizzaro land?
No worse than we thought – the prognosis is ALWAYS worse than we thought.
The ocenas will boil away – Hansen
Children won’t know what snow is – Viner
The Arctic will be ice free – Wadham
There are more crackpots than you can shake a stick at – JimS
We’re gonna need a bigger stick.
They own the stick. We can’t have it.
You got the 3 Wise Men … where is the MANN-ger??
Gawd, does that make Algore the Holy Child?
Or just a donkey looking on…
Hey JimS! By 2020, the Inuit people will only have three words for “ice.” Those three words will be “rumored”, “invisible”, and “Slurpee”.
🙂
It doesn’t seem to me that he has changed int, only ‘refined’ it.
May 29, 2014 “the trend was so clear and so definite that it would go to zero by 2015 that I felt it was safe to make that prediction, and I still think it is …” certainly appears to me that he is still thinking ‘ice free’ by 2015. In fact he seems to have upped the ante by agreeing that the ‘death spiral’ is beyond our ability to affect. “Do you think that we’ve already passed the point of no return in terms of controlling polar ice cap melting?” ” Yes, I think we have.”
The 2020 date just offered a further prediction about the length of time the Arctic would be ‘ice free’ in the summer.
I do not see anything fun about such people sowing seeds of panic and despair with wild predictions and never, ever saying they were wrong when everything goes opposite of their predictions. In the meantime, he and his ilk are wasting untold $billions that could be used for worthwhile purposes. People are suffering around the world while these parasites waste the money. The money they waste could ease suffering of the poor and sick. Nothing fun or funny to those poor people suffering.
Relax…even the Bible says there will be MANY FALSE PROPHETS
There is nothing wrong with making a prediction, then changing your mind. What is wrong is not acknowledging your ‘error’ and not explaining why you have changed your prediction. If he has done this then let me apologize in advance.
PS Anthony, I think we need another Arctic ‘ice-free’ countdown clock.
Jimbo – quite right.
Appreciate your attention to this matter.
Peter Wadhams is – to my eyes – a very experienced polar hand – see, for example: –
http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/ and
http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/people/p.wadhams/ [over 40 polar expeditions . . . .]
Not being ageist, but as a matter of record, he is now past the state retirement age in the UK, having been born in May 1948.
[I’ve not found anything about his schooling, but have not sought Link-edIn, or similar. Maybe others can be more indefatigable?]
Accordingly, he probably [>99.5% certainty] has (the bulk of) his pension locked in.
It follows that he has a degree of freedom to try to foist his beliefs on others, should he so choose.
In fairness – do the believers usually grant that concession to non-believers? – he did say 2015 (and let’s agree that ‘ice-free’ means “ice-free, apart from perhaps a million square kilometres or so up in he Canadian archipelago, or near, where he ice is – um – pretty thick”, or similar) and it is only 2014.
{why am I cutting this guy a bit of rope? Because I can . . . . . . . .}
I think he will be wrong.
If he is right, I will say I erred tonight [if prompted . . . . My memory is imperfect – but ask, and you will receive.].
Now – if he is wrong, I would like to see his admission of error [and I’m sure he will be prompted!].
Auto
Wadhams has the advantage of not caring if he looks ridiculous. Probably had developed this trait early in his life.
Arctic ice extent has reached a new equilibrium, beginning in 2007. Since that year, season-end ice extent has fluctuated about a mean. This will continue until SST changes.
“Moving the goalposts” will be the favorite and very necessary “sport” of the faithful CO2-Witchhunters in the next 20 years. Here is another one by the German CAGW pope Schellnhuber:
http://notrickszone.com/2014/12/10/goal-post-migration-alert-father-of-2c-target-schellnhuber-postpones-co2-emissions-peak-10-years-from-2020-to-2030/
I think climate prognosticators should be subject to SEC rules for the dissemination of false information. People has invested billions based on these claims.
Exactly my belief Rob Dawg. 100% The situation is very similar. Corporate officers have tremendous incentives to report, or even believe in. biased information. The SEC rules and required auditing holds that somewhat in check. With the high stakes of these climate science prognostications, they do need to be held accountable for disseminating false info. Internal bias can make people believe things that are not facts. Perhaps this is something to suggest to our government reps to try to get some legislation passed.
Peter Wadhams ScD (born 14 May 1948), so currently 66 plus 6 equals72 and long retired so not around to be reminded of his claims , I wonder of that has anything to do with it ?
Your slide rule needs oiling.
If he is not senile, then he either incompetent, or is a liar.
Given the current state of the Arctic sea ice, he has to be one of the above.
Why only one ?? he’s a climatologist so could multi task !!
Just a Manipulator of Data. You can write a code to produce a Hocky Stick regardless of what garbage is fed into it
Well obviously, 2020 is when the missing heat hiding deep in the oceans comes back out.
Duh.
But what if the missing heat continues downward into the core and the earths core overheats and the world explodes?
Well even in that case the professor would be wrong since the prediction of lack of Arctic ice shouldn’t count if the earth explodes.
Before the core explodes it would have to reach “Millions and Millions of degrees” (Al gore jr. I guess F, C, K degrees would not matter much then).
U degrees?
Evangelists have been using this trick for a while, that is of delaying and changing dates.
But even dooms day evangelists at least pretend to come up with a reason. They just don’t walk into the congregation and say, “Late breaking news, new date for the end of the world” and then talk about the pancake breakfast.
You apparently don’t attend the right church. In the Our Lady Gaia Church of CAGW and Blessed Climate Study Grants , it’s common practice.
World ends at 10…Film at 11
It appears he has, in fact, maintained his prediction of an “ice free” Arctic in 2016.
He is simply being more specific and now saying it will be soon after the 48th month of 2016.
/grin
Now it appears that the future is no longer certain while the past is still subject to change.
Indeed Pablo, Those who control the present control the past.
Thanks to the Internet, (and archive.org )
It’s just not possible to control information like it used to be.
Like Santa….those who control the presents control……
Or are they grants?…
Brilliant, Pablo. Oh yeah, I am a geologist who’s specialty is the past 15,000 years – so it is a bit painful to witness.
Jimbo,
Nice post.
John
Maybe being ridiculed by his fellow alarmists had something to do with it :
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/9/22/the-royal-and-the-arctic.html
“He has studied the Arctic since 1970”
Maybe he should have studied the history of the Arctic as well.
After 44 years of study I would still give a “fail”.
With the decline in summer temperatures and warmer winters I’d expect more snow and less seasonal melt slowly taking over the melt cycle.
We have held onto and slightly built upon our 2013 ice gains this year, don’t think 2015 will be the same, but I don’t think it will be a 2012 either…
Jimbo, Good post. We need to keep them accountable. Based on natural climate dynamics, I have about a thousand dollars in bets that Arctic sea ice will be clearly on the increase by 2025.
Erm why should he explain it? He’s getting paid well, hell I’d be predicting s** like this too.