Over the past few years the Arctic expert, Professor Peter Wadhams, has strongly predicted an ‘ice-free’ Arctic no later than 2016. Late this year he changed it to 2020 without apparently giving an explanation.
Guest post by WUWT reader Jimbo
Peter Wadhams is a Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge and an expert on Arctic sea ice and waves. He has studied the Arctic since 1970. In the last few years he has predicted that the Arctic will be ‘ice-free’ no later than September 2016. (It is generally accepted that an ‘ice-free’ Arctic is 1 million km2 or less, as it is very difficult to melt the thick multi-year ice in the Canadian Archipelago).
Late this year Prof. Wadhams changed his prediction of an ice-free Arctic to 2020.
Q) Has Professor Wadhams given the reason[s] for his changed prediction? As a ‘denier’ I just want to know so that I can have a better understanding of when we are likely to see an ‘ice-free’ Arctic.
Below are his repeated predictions of an ‘ice-free’ Arctic no later than 2016.
Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
Dr Maslowski’s model, along with his claim that the Arctic sea ice is in a “death spiral”, were controversial but Prof Wadhams, a leading authority on the polar regions, said the calculations had him “pretty much persuaded.”
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
—–
BBC News – 27 August 2012
Professor Peter Wadhams, from Cambridge University, told BBC News: “A number of scientists who have actually been working with sea ice measurement had predicted some years ago that the retreat would accelerate and that the summer Arctic would become ice-free by 2015 or 2016.
“I was one of those scientists – and of course bore my share of ridicule for daring to make such an alarmist prediction.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19393075
—–
Guardian – 17 September 2012
Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
——-
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” he said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4084c8ee-fa36-11e2-98e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2hozOJWog
——-
The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
“The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
——-
Arctic News – June 27, 2012
My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/06/when-sea-ice-is-gone.html
——-
TheRealNews – 29 May 2014
Transcript [Youtube] http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=11899
[Q] WORONCZUK: And, Peter, what’s your take? Do you think that we’ve already passed the point of no return in terms of controlling polar ice cap melting?
[A] WADHAMS: Yes, I think we have. A few years ago, I predicted that the summer sea ice–that’s the September minimum–would go to zero by about 2015. And at that stage, it was only really one model that agreed with me. My prediction was based on observations from satellites and from measurements from submarines of ice thickness, which I’ve been doing from British subs, and Americans have been doing the same from American subs. And the trend was so clear and so definite that it would go to zero by 2015 that I felt it was safe to make that prediction, and I still think it is, because next year, although this year we don’t expect things to retreat much further than last, next year will be an El Niño year, which is a warmer year, and I think it will go to zero.
I knew earlier this year he would change his mind. I was just waiting for the reason he would give, but I can’t find it.
Paul Ehrlich is the master. He’s been tap dancing for fifty plus years.
True… all others are mere aprentices…
He is clueless and wrong.
State-of-the-art models clearly state that he is as unfailingly correct as he is incapable of error.
The models also predict that the 2020 date will be moved back once 2020 approaches.
I’m wondering if Bob Tisdale’s Alaska hot spot (oceanic) which may have spawned the immediate past Californian mega storm, could actually result in higher precipitation of solid rain over the disappearing arctic ice.
Wouldn’t a good snow cover, be a better insulator between the atmosphere and the sheet ocean ice ??
Anybody know ??
In silicon Valley the mega storm was a pffftt !!
george e. smith,
I was in New Almaden area in south part of San Jose during the media’s over-hyped storm. It was a rather benign pfffft at that.
John
Anymore, all weather is “Extreme” “Mega-” & Super-” weather.
Today we had a mega-sunny day . tonight will be Super-dark.
Extreme sunrise expected.
Gaia, in her infinite mercy, has chosen to give Mankind a reprieve, and has held back for 4 more years to see if we will finally Do The Right Thing, and raise taxes.
Because that’s what Gaia wants – it is written in the most Holy of Holy Book!
@wws
Amen, brother ;o)
See ya Sunday at the Holy Mother Gaia Church of Benevolent Climate Science Grants potluck. I make a mean mac ‘n cheese casserole. Ya gotta try it. I hear Mann has a great Tree Bean Salad, unless he brings his Tiljander Upside-down Cake. It’s awesome.
Whose bringing the cool aid?
noaaprogrammer:
Whose bringing the cool aid?
Groan! I shoulda’ seen that one comin’.
No explanation? Of course he gave an explanation.
The previous prediction only bankrolled his cushy life, sucking the public teat, until 2016. This new prediction extends his teat-sucking until 2020. And when we get to 2019, he will extend once more to 2028. Beyond that he does not care, because he will be six feet under…..
Do you need further explanation?
Ralph
Being slightly older than the good Dr. I am concerned as to the reason you think he will be 6 feet under by 2028 ?
Maybe the non-symetrical growth under the giant bags under his left eye?
… made u look…
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
it looks to me that the trend since 2007 is pretty much flat.
Marcos
You humiliate yourself, your family and your ancestors by insisting on using accurate and real data.
Please get with the program and stop that. We will send you supporting model data as soon as you:
(1) let us know what numbers you wish to see; and
(2) you clear out some space in your dumpster.
For Pete’s sake, if we can teach psychology & sociology students to parrot the “team” line, we can definitely teach you. Pretty soon you will forget all about posting short, crisp, accurate comments.
Continued backsliding will result in loss of your “HotWhopper” platinum access privileges (i.e.: granting the right to comment and edit/create responses to your comments).
/sarc off
“We will send you supporting model data as soon as you:”
We will send you supporting model data AND FUNDING BY WAY OF MANY GRANTS as soon as you:”
Fixed it for ya.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
No, I read it as Jan 2006 beginning the Arctic Sea Ice Flat Spot.
We need the good noble bard Monkton to run his “How long is a flat line of irregular data a flat line?” algorithm on the Arctic Sea ice. For this entire past year, the Arctic sea ice has STAYED within 2 std deviations of its long-term mean sea ice area – so the Arctic is within normal variation. Whether past years were higher or lower is irrelevant, because this year, Arctic Sea ice has stayed within “normal” limits.
The much hyped “Arctic Death Spiral of ever-hotter Arctic ocean waters melting more sea ice which allows more energy to be absorbed is reversed: Between Aug 22 and Mar 22 each year, more net energy is now lost from the newly exposed open Arctic oceans by increased evaporation, convection, conduction and radiation than is gained by the sun’s exposure at low solar elevation angles.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
On the other hand, the Antarctic Sea Ice has been steadily increasing 1992, but its area has been exploding ever faster the past several years since June 2011. (A while before the the Arctic low spot of Sept 2012.) Arctic and Antarctic sea ice net area is unimportant when looking at reflection of energy from either pole.
The fact that Arctic ice is within two standard deviations of it’s average is not important. What is important is that Arctic ice has been below the running average for 13 consecutive years. Now, if the level of Arctic ice were randomly distributed, it should spend half it’s time above the average and half it’s time below it’s average.
..
Tell us, what is the probability that you could flip a coin and get heads 13 times consecutively?
David:
Arctic Ice decline is over and a new, lower average extent has existed since 2007.
mpainter
..
The long term trend continues to be down. It takes more than seven years to make a “trend”. I suggest you look at 30 years worth of data.
The alarmist cult cherry-picks the Arctic only because arctic ice has been declining for a few years. The bipolar see-saw says that as one pole loses ice, the other gains ice, and vice-versa, so global ice remains unchanged. That is what’s happening here.
As we see, global ice [the red line] is slightly above its 30-year average.
Question: is there any scary prediction that the alarmist crowd has made correctly? So far, the answer is “No”. They have been 100% wrong about every alarming prediction. Tell us, how could they be as wrong as flipping a coin 13 times consecutively, and never calling it correctly? It takes real charlatanism to do that, and only mouth breathing head-nodders still believe them.
Why anyone would still believe the alarmist crowd’s nonsense is beyond me.
Be careful when you begin to say “global ice remains unchanged”
…
You seem to be ignoring data from GRACE and CryoSat-2 with your graph, as it is only showing sea ice area.
…
Remember, “global ice” is the sum of both sea ice extent floating on the sea , and the ice sheets and glaciers sitting on land.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060111/full
http://congrexprojects.com/docs/12c20_docs2/2-grace_esa-clic_forsberg.pdf?sfvrsn=2
http://www.cryosat.de/fileadmin/Documents/Workshops/PDFs/icemass_grace.pdf
The melting ice is causing sea level rise.
No, the graph of “global ice” is the sum of Arctic sea ice and Antarctic sea ice.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
And Antarctic sea ice, as confirmed by NSIDC email, does NOT include the 1.5 Mkm^2 of Antarctic shelf ice.
Show me that “calibration” thickness data (by ice core drills) for Antarctic land ice and Greenland land ice, would you? Last I heard there were only TWO drill bore holes verifying ice depth for all of Greenland – kind of like assuming you know EXACTLY how the height of the ground in Kansas, OK, MO, Nebraska, Wyoming, and New Mexico all change by measuring the height of one mountain in West Virginia and one mountain in Colorado. One time. (And no bore holes to rock outside of Vostok for all 14.0mMkm^2 of Antarctica.)
If melting ice is causing sea level rise, why is sea level rise decelerating? And GRACE was not designed to measure ice volume. Its measurements are questionable. Do a search here of ‘sea level’ and gain knowledge.
Once again: EVERY alarmist prediction has been flat WRONG. The only people left believing in CAGW are those whose beliefs are based on religion, not on science.
Mr RACookPE1978
…
Look very carefully at your graph.
Please note the title.
It says “Global Sea Ice Area”
..
Now, as you know “area” does not measure thickness. You need three dimensions to make volume.
Reflection (albedo changes between open ocean and sea ice) does NOT depend on thickness of the sea ice.
PIOMASS is a modeled program using assumptions designed to validate assumptions to justify further assumptions. For albedo, for multi-year-sea-ice, it has NO value other than serving alarmist catastrophysicists’ and their continued funding
Mr RACookPE1978
GPS measurement of Greenland bedrock rebound verifies and confirms the GRACE mass measurments
..
http://www.unavco.org/science/snapshots/cryosphere/2012/bevis.html
dbstealey
…
Sea levels are rising.
Acceleration or deceleration of the rate of rise does not change the fact that they continue to rise. The melting ice ends up in the sea.
Melting sea ice cannot change ocean levels. Melting land ice has occurred in the past, has continued through to the present, and may continue for a while until the next Ice Age returns. At which time, sea levels will drop back to the “normal levels” some 250 – 380 feet below today’s highs. Fear the ice, for it kills. Embrace the warmth, for it brings life.
Mr RACookPE1978
Irrespective of the open sea losing heat, the total volume of ice is shrinking. That in and of itself is an indication that things are getting warmer. The melting is confirmed by sea level rise.
Don’t need thirty years, myself. That is for people like yourself who wish to dodge the facts by citing some bs formula.
The above was for DSocr.
Arctic ice extent has stabilized for seven years. You can expect it to grow now that the globe is poised for a deepening cooling trend. Get out your fur socks, sockrat.
mpainter.
..
If it’s supposed to grow, why is the 2014 Arctic extent less than the 2013 extent
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2014/12/asina_N_stddev_timeseries.png
See the blue line for 2014 dipped below the green line for 2013 in late September?
Mother Nature did that so that alarmists would have something to wet their britches over.
Ma Nature has also accomodated you in western Antarctica, where geothermal heat has accelerated ice shelf movement. Now alarmists can gasp “Collapse!” and pee a whole puddle. Isn’t Mother Nature swell?
mpainter
Did Mother Nature play a joke on you in 2012 when she caused the Arctic extent to be the smallest in the satellite record? Arctic ice extent has stabilized for seven years…….except for 2012 right?
David:
You have made the assumption that 1979-2000 represents the true long-term average. All of this is short-term snapshots when compared to the long cycles frequently found in nature. Considering that in earth’s history ice has extended far south of the northern pole, and has been completely free of ice during other periods, this whole issue is moot. The amount of ice at the poles cannot be used as an indicator of CAGW. Nothing is out of the realm of natural variability.
Jtom
..
No, the average used is the 1981-2010 average
..
Go here…
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
..
Then add years to the chart from 2013, 2012, 2010, etc….and on until you find the first year that has a minimum extent in Sept-Oct…
…
I counted 13. …
Sockrat, it is going to get colder in the coming decade and I strongly advise that you break your habit of wetting your britches, before it gets too cold.
That will only make it worse for you, you see.
Sea levels have been rising since the LIA, and since the last great stadial before that. It is normal, natural, and not due to any human activity.
The endless predictions were for SL rise to accelerate. That has not happened. Thus, they were wrong.
It is amusing to watch alarmists. No matter how many times their predictions are shown to be wrong, they never stop Believing.
Just like “ice”, LOL! Ice. There is nothing about “ice” that matters, except that Arctic ice declined for a short time, giving the alarmist contingent incredible hope. Now will they face reality?
No, because their Belief is based on religion, not on science.
The melting ice ends up in the sea.
No foolin’. Where else would it end up? On a mountain?☺
Over 4.5 billion years you may get 13 consecutive heads.
yeppers: And NONE of those Greenland GPS locations is in the center of the Greenland ice pack: From the link above :
So – If (when) the center of Greenland has 280+ feet of new ice deposited since 1944 (pushing the rocks under the middle of the ice cap down even further below sea level), where are the edges of the mountains around the ice cap expected to go? (Hint: Up.)
Why not 2021? Or 2027? How about 2019?
When 2020 comes and goes with Arctic icepack [doing] fine I bet this fine gentleman will, without pause or hesitation, make a prediction for 2025 to be ice free.
Easy come, easy go, with tenure of course.
Peter Wadhams is a climate “scientist” therefore he will make any kind of wild prediction and then change it. Think of our friend Hansen and the Potomac flooding everywhere. Think of our friends in the UK Met Office and extreme weather, etc, etc.
Why bother with real science when you can just make it up!
Peter Wadhams Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge:
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015′
Stefan Rahmstorf Professor of Physics of the Oceans at the Potsdam Institute:
WUWT widget from 2009 wasn’t good enough.
Next these learned professors of Ocean Physics will tell us that “Martians are spying on us from the bottom of the ocean”.
Above is a reported source documenting Wadhams’ date of 2020 that he predicts.
John
The role of the Fram Strait in the ice loss makes any prediction of total loss suspect.
More Arctic sea ice freezes than melts EVERY YEAR, but a lot flushes out the Fram Strait (between Greenland and Svalbard) into the North Atlantic. When there’s less ice, there’s less flush. This negative feedback may prevent very low levels from going any lower. See here:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim365d.gif
There’s another possible effect having to do with the impact of this North Atlantic ice on the gulf stream but that’s very complex and may not be significant.
Question ?
Do any of the prediction geniuses ever ask people that live in the Arctic their opinion and what their ancestors said about times past ?
…Too expensive to fly those people to the lab for questioning.
That would require a highly paid ethnographer to construct some carefully leading questions in the original tongue of the natives, and then have 12 stipend-supported graduate students to be trained for the survey work, then flown to the arctic, and housed in temporary, military style shelter, flown in on a C5-A. At a total cost of $2.6 million. The problem is that my grant to do this is being held up since the Republicans took the majority in both chambers
If they did, the answer would be “It’s worse than we thought…”
Party line to get those gummint $$$, doncha know.
🙂
Professor Waldhams is doing for Oxford what Professor Ehrlich is doing for Stanford. There is nothing like a tenure system .. but I don’t know much about Oxford.
He actually made the statement in 2009, not this year. Here is an article from The Australian, feeding from The Times. No reason is given but it’s not a recent claim. Try 5 years ago. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/north-pole-ice-free-by-summer-2020/story-e6frg6so-1225786979402?nk=459040a0937211a4181a0099bb476bfb
The big warmy hot had trouble clearing customs?
Jimbo, great memory hole resource.
Per the Tele atricle –
Dr Maslowski’s model, along with his claim that the Arctic sea ice is in a “death spiral”, were controversial but Prof Wadhams, a leading authority on the polar regions, said the calculations had him “pretty much persuaded.”
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
Although it would reappear again every winter, its absence during the peak of summer would rob polar bears of their summer hunting ground and threaten them with extinction.
So the ‘leading authority’ thinks the Most Incorrect Model is the best AND doesn’t know it is spring time ice hunting that is most important to the polee bears?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/01/are-polar-bear-researchers-blinded-by-belief-or-acting-dishonestly/
Maybe his calculations discount rotten ice.
/snark
When they are correct they were prophets. When they are wrong they were raising consciousness.
They have no need for apology. Noble causes excuse over zealousness and intemperate exaggerations
It may be light relief to mock Waldhams and others of his ilk, good scientists who did pioneering work in the past but who cannot cope with changes in empirical evidence that challenge their beliefs, but in the real world the band wagon moves briskly on.
The BBC headline on the Lima talks is : “Will Kerry strike gold at Lima” which is perverse because he has gone to the summit with the express purpose of giving away gold – the wealth and savings of the people of America. How could he ever fail?
The BBC gives the impression that any minute now a decision will be announced that commits US and UK to an irreversible transfer of money and a disruption of normal life that , in Britain at least , has only previously been seen in the years during and immediately after WWII. I lived through some of that time and it really was not pleasant . But the BBC is jubilant at the prospect.
My apologies to the Prof : Wadhams not Waldhams
My prediction for Prof Wadham’s 2019 prediction: 2024.
Are you sure that is the correct photograph? I could have sworn it was Foster Brooks.
maybe it was taken after lunch, here is one from before
http://assets.wwf.org.uk/img/peterwadhams_240_9840.jpg
That was a heck of a lunch.
Doesn’t really matter, the Mayans predicted that the world would end in 2012, so obviously, none of us are even here.
and when it (all but the very old ice) melts for a month. What the hell happens that anyone would care about ?
Correct me if I am mistaken, but I had thought that Greenland (the part of the Arctic that doesn’t float) maintained below freezing temperatures, even in high summer. (With temperatures dropping to – 30 C or so in winter.)
How is Greenland going to melt if the temperature never goes above 0 C? And how can the “Arctic” ever be “ice-free” if Greenland remains covered with ice?
Seems like a sloppy claim whatever the timetable.
Check the 10 day forecast for Summit Greenland. It rarely gets above freezing there, even in summer:
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/GL/Summit.html
Check Google earth photos of the tidewater glaciers around the perimeter of Greenland. I think Greenland ice is in good shape. Tidewater glaciers calve into the sea – it’s what they do as they advance.
“Ice-free Arctic” refers to sea ice. There is evidence that the Arctic was ice free earlier in the Holocene, when it was warmer than today (the Climatic Optimum).
There is slim chance of that happening now, as the globe steps down into a new ice age.