Moving the goalposts – has Professor Wadhams Explained His Now Changed 'ice-free' Arctic Prediction?

Over the past few years the Arctic expert, Professor Peter Wadhams, has strongly predicted an ‘ice-free’ Arctic no later than 2016. Late this year he changed it to 2020 without apparently giving an explanation.

wadhams-arctic-melting-time-bomb

Guest post by WUWT reader Jimbo

Peter Wadhams is a Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge and an expert on Arctic sea ice and waves. He has studied the Arctic since 1970. In the last few years he has predicted that the Arctic will be ‘ice-free’ no later than September 2016. (It is generally accepted that an ‘ice-free’ Arctic is 1 million km2 or less, as it is very difficult to melt the thick multi-year ice in the Canadian Archipelago).

Late this year Prof. Wadhams changed his prediction of an ice-free Arctic to 2020.

Q) Has Professor Wadhams given the reason[s] for his changed prediction? As a ‘denier’ I just want to know so that I can have a better understanding of when we are likely to see an ‘ice-free’ Arctic.

Below are his repeated predictions of an ‘ice-free’ Arctic no later than 2016.

Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011

Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’

Dr Maslowski’s model, along with his claim that the Arctic sea ice is in a “death spiral”, were controversial but Prof Wadhams, a leading authority on the polar regions, said the calculations had him “pretty much persuaded.”

Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.

“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/8877491/Arctic-sea-ice-to-melt-by-2015.html

—–

BBC News – 27 August 2012

Professor Peter Wadhams, from Cambridge University, told BBC News: “A number of scientists who have actually been working with sea ice measurement had predicted some years ago that the retreat would accelerate and that the summer Arctic would become ice-free by 2015 or 2016.

“I was one of those scientists – and of course bore my share of ridicule for daring to make such an alarmist prediction.”

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19393075

—–

Guardian – 17 September 2012

Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years

“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

——-

Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013

“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” he said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4084c8ee-fa36-11e2-98e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2hozOJWog

——-

The Scotsman – 12 September 2013

Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert

“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.

“The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”

http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/arctic-sea-ice-will-vanish-within-three-years-says-expert-1-2493681

——-

Arctic News – June 27, 2012

My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/06/when-sea-ice-is-gone.html

——-

TheRealNews – 29 May 2014

Transcript [Youtube]  http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=11899

[Q] WORONCZUK: And, Peter, what’s your take? Do you think that we’ve already passed the point of no return in terms of controlling polar ice cap melting?

[A] WADHAMS: Yes, I think we have. A few years ago, I predicted that the summer sea ice–that’s the September minimum–would go to zero by about 2015. And at that stage, it was only really one model that agreed with me. My prediction was based on observations from satellites and from measurements from submarines of ice thickness, which I’ve been doing from British subs, and Americans have been doing the same from American subs. And the trend was so clear and so definite that it would go to zero by 2015 that I felt it was safe to make that prediction, and I still think it is, because next year, although this year we don’t expect things to retreat much further than last, next year will be an El Niño year, which is a warmer year, and I think it will go to zero.

I knew earlier this year he would change his mind. I was just waiting for the reason he would give, but I can’t find it.

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
David L.

He doesn’t need a reason. He’s one of the true believers.

brians356

If he really wants to be taken seriously, and paid appearance money for TV interviews, he needs to start wearing a bow tie like Bill Nye.

Brute

Actually, he just needs an accusation, namely, that you are a heathen if you do not believe and parrot word-for-word whatever he says whenever he says it.
He also needs your money, you know, for “subs” and so on… but he has it already, so that is not a real priority.

Only a denier would ask for explanations and evidence.
Deniers are so rude to science!

Ian H

If it doesn’t talk like a scientist; or think or reason like a scientist, then can we call it a scientist?

richardscourtney

Ian H
You ask

If it doesn’t talk like a scientist; or think or reason like a scientist, then can we call it a scientist?

I don’t know the answer to your question, but the behaviour of Wadhams (reported above by Jimbo) is typical of “climate scientists”. They often alter their statements without explanation when their predictions are reaching the point of total failure.
Predictions of “climate scientists” that are on record but are now said to not have existed include
Greatest warming would be at both polar regions (The first IPCC Report).
The 1998 El Nino was a “sign of things to come” (very many “climate scientists” in 1998).
Within a few years winter snowfall in Britain will become “a very rare and exciting event” and “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” (David Viner in 2000).
“Committed warming” would cause warming at a rate of 0.2°C per decade over the first two decades of this century (The fourth IPCC Report).
Warming from “well mixed greenhouse gases” in the tropics would be 2 to 3 times greater at altitude than at the surface; i.e. the so-called Hot Spot (The fourth IPCC Report).
Climate models provide accurate predictions (The fifth IPCC Report).
etc.
Richard

Stephen Richards

Richard
Don’t forget the UKMO one when they got their super duper mega mega computer.
Something along the lines of ‘ 4 of the 5 yrs after 2009 would be warmer than 1998’. Mind you, with the introduction of HadCRU 3+n, they are trying hard to get there.

Yes he seem to be one of those who forgot that Thou shalt have no other gods before me but instead he seems to have turn his Faith elsewhere…. maybe to The new Faith of IPCC: Humans are Universe´s centre

Jimbo

I almost forgot. Here is a commenter who said that they has emailed Wadhams about his earlier predictions. I cannot vouch for the veracity so maybe if they are around they could supply an image capture of his correspondence with Wadhams.

WUWT
tom s says:
May 24, 2014 at 10:33 am
I wrote a correspondence to “Professor Peter ‘hot head’ Wadhams” and he actually responded; Here is my email to him;
“Good day professor….. do you still stand by these words? Because in light of NOAA’s forecast for above average ice this coming Aug and Sep it appears your time is running out……
To which he responded; “Dear Mr Skinner, I think you should wait until September 2015 before you assert that I’m wrong, since that remains my prediction. Yours sincerely, Peter Wadhams”…..
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/23/sea-ice-news-volume-5-2-noaa-forecasts-above-normal-arctic-ice-extent-for-summer/#comment-1644854

Some people never learned Theories of Science…. all they learnt was how to get more funds for their own behalf… 🙂

Jimbo

Where are the warmists today defending this Arctic sea ice expert? They are never around when you need them.
Here is another sea ice expert who got it wrong for an ice-free Arctic for 2013. He changed his mind and upped the prediction to 2019 – using a model of the complicated climate and extrapolating. When will people stop listening to these ‘experts’?
Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts,” – Dr. Richard Feynman – physicist – 1966

BBC – 8 April 2011
[Richard Black]
Scientists who predicted a few years ago that Arctic summers could be ice-free by 2013 now say summer sea ice will probably be gone in this decade.
The original prediction, made in 2007, gained Wieslaw Maslowski‘s team a deal of criticism from some of their peers……….
“In the past… we were just extrapolating into the future assuming that trends might persist as we’ve seen in recent times,” said Dr Maslowski, who works at Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California………….
And one of the projections it comes out with is that the summer melt could lead to ice-free Arctic seas by 2016 – “plus or minus three years”………..
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-13002706

Steve from Rockwood

So an ice-free Arctic isn’t really ice-free because the multi-year ice will never melt?

Bryan A

This means that all of the Rolli Polli Bears will have to congregate at Ellesmere during the summer months as will their main food supply The Furry Wurry Seals. At least it will be in the shallows of the Arctic Ocean and the seals can hunt clams and fish. It will also make it easier to count the Bears

But, they are the authority. No analysis is needed…

asybot

Ties in nicely with Tim Ball’s article about “Academia”.

brockway32

Look at the ozone hole. It is fine at 110.1 Dobson units, but at 109.9 it’s a HOLE.

Bryan

That’s what I was thinking — ice-free except for where it isn’t ice-free.

MCourtney

Because he’s a crackpot.
Not only sceptics acknowledge that.
He is a figure of fun.

Brute

But the joke is on the rest of us, funding his vacations on “subs”.

British and American submarines, why not Russian, Swedish and Nowegian? Or don’t they go in for this warming rubbish.

Bloke down the pub

Swedes and Norwegians don’t have nuclear subs able to operate under the ice and the Russians aren’t likely to share any information they have about a strategically important region. Putin must be a bit miffed that sea ice isn’t retreating as predicted, he had big plans for claiming the pole as Russian along with it’s resources.

jmorpuss

Russia plants flag on arctic sea floor http://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/aug/02/russia.arctic
the Arctic ice will keep recovering until this goes full scale again. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/586ae5c0-487c-11e4-ad19-00144feab7de.html#axzz3LibdfaZm

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia.

Yeah, the Russians must be stupid for building all those new nuclear powered icebreakers.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Russia-awards-icebreaker-contracts-0905147.html

Mark from the Midwest

No, they’re brilliant. It’s always been “possible” to transit from the North Sea to the North Pacific in August and September, it just wasn’t economically practical due to insurance rates and the possibility of burning through too much fuel pushing all the ice-sludge out of the way. The Russians are exploiting the global-warming meme by building a couple huge nuclear ice-breakers, and charging a “reasonable” fee to insure that you can take the shortcut without too much risk

A friend of mine went on a trip to the Antarctic on a Russian Nuke Ice-breaker. It was a tourist trip. Yeah…they “lease” their icebreakers out to tour organizers. He said the ship was incredible. They took about 100 folks down to lay on the beaches with the seals.

hunter

The great thing about being a well paid prophet is that prophets are seldom held ot account for their lack of accuracy.

Tom in Florida

Just like economists.

Brute

True. But politicians are so far ahead of economists in terms of lack of accountability that, by comparison, the shortcomings of economists are virtually negligible.

Lancifer

And journalists.

Ian W

He is only a prophet to profit from it

Les Johnson

eeven earlier predictions. In 2001, wadhams said that “swithin a decade”, there would be regular summer access.
http://web.archive.org/web/20130118115246/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=22250

From 2002
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2002-02/ns-am022702.php
“There will be anarchy as northern seas open up to shipping”

Bryan A

Anarchy…Commerce…What’s the difference???
/snark

Jimbo

Les Johnson,
I have that earlier prediction but it relates to the North-West passage. Below are other Arctic predictions / speculations / projections from Professor Peter Wadhams. PS there is nothing unusual about the North Pole being ‘ice-free’ as I will show after this comment post.

New Scientist – 2 March 2002
Arctic melting will open new sea passages
…..But in 10 years’ time, if melting patterns change as predicted, the North-West Passage could be open to ordinary shipping for a month each summer……
Peter Wadhams of the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge agrees that the Arctic could soon open up. “Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there,” he predicts.

BBC – 12 December 2007
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
Wieslaw’s model is more efficient because it works with data and it takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice.” …..
“The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.
“There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly….”

Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“Last year we saw huge areas of the ocean open up, which has never been experienced before. People are expecting this to continue this year and it is likely to extend over the North Pole. It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.

Nature – 18 September 2009
“We’re entering a new epoch of sea-ice melt in the Arctic Ocean due to climate change,” says Peter Wadhams, an oceanographer at the University of Cambridge, UK, who is conducting research in the Fram Strait off Greenland aboard the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise. “In five years’ time most of the sea ice could be gone in summer with just an ‘Alamo of ice’ remaining north of Ellesmere Island.”

BBC Newsnight – 12 May 2011
Prof Wadhams says in summer “it could easily happen that we’ll have an ice-free North Pole within a year or two“.

Arctic Methane Emergency Group2012?
The Case for Emergency Geo-Engineering to save the Arctic from Collapse
AMEG is presenting to the
All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group
Tuesday, 13th March, 1:00 – 2:30 pm
AMEG will set before the APPCCG new evidence that shows that because of rising sea and air temperatures the Arctic is in a state of rapid collapse, with a high probability that the Arctic will be completely ice-free at its summer minimum as early as 2013 and having no sea-ice in the Arctic for six months of the year by 2018-20.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – founding member of AMEG]

Ambio / Springer – Jan 19, 2012
Arctic Ice Cover, Ice Thickness and Tipping Points
Conclusions
Within a decade we can expect summer ice to be largely confined to a redoubt north of the north coasts of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, the only location where substantial MY ice will be found.
The indications are that this is indeed a ‘tipping point’ for the ice cover, in that it will not return to a year-round cover but will change to a purely seasonal cover of FY ice, as currently found in the Antarctic…..
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007%2Fs13280-011-0222-9

WWF – Before 2013
Catlin Arctic Survey – results
“It shows we’re getting a big contraction of the ice cover in summer now, which never used to happen. And once it starts happening, it’ll never stop.
“The amount of open water generated is so great that it’s absorbing a lot of radiation in the summer, and it warms up by several degrees. It takes much longer to cool down in the autumn, so the next year’s cycle of ice growth is disrupted, and so it goes on.
http://www.wwf.org.uk/what_we_do/tackling_climate_change/results.cfm

Jimbo

Apparently there is nothing unusual about an ‘ice-free’ North Pole, yet experts keep telling us that it has not happened in millions of years / unprecedented and all that. Why are they experts and I’m not?

New York Times – May 18, 1926
Lincoln Ellsworth of the Amundsen-Ellsworth transpolar expedition told The Associated Press here today that he saw much open water at the North Pole when he and his sixteen companions passed over it last Tuesday night in the dirigible Norge.
———-
Edmonton Journal – 29 May 1928
Reported Open Water Near the North Pole
———-
Ottawa Citizen – Apr 3, 1969
North Pole is the goal
…While the Pole itself doesn’t move, the ice above it does – sometimes there is open water at the site and hitting the exact loca-tion is no easy chore….
———-
New York Times – 29 August 2000
“The fact of having no ice at the pole is not so stunning,” said Dr. Claire L. Parkinson, a climatologist at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “But the report said the ship encountered an unusual amount of open water all the way up. That is reason for concern.”
New York Times – 29 August 2000
Correction: August 29, 2000, Tuesday A front-page article on Aug. 19 and a brief report on Aug. 20 in The Week in Review about the sighting of open water at the North Pole misstated the normal conditions of the sea ice there. A clear spot has probably opened at the pole before, scientists say, because about 10 percent of the Arctic Ocean is clear of ice in a typical summer. The reports also referred incompletely to the link between the open water and global warming. The lack of ice at the pole is not necessarily related to global warming.
———-
Common Dreams – 4 September 2000
Climate Change Has The World Skating On Thin Ice
by Lester R. Brown
“If any explorers had been hiking to the North Pole this summer, they would have had to swim the last few miles. The discovery of open water at the Pole by an ice-breaker cruise ship in mid August surprised many in the scientific community.”
———-
NOAA Faqs – found 18 November 2013
10. Is it true that the North Pole is now water?
Recently there have been newspaper articles describing the existence of open water at the North Pole. This situation is infrequent but has been known to occur as the ice is shifted around by winds. In itself, this observation is not meaningful.
———-
Naval History & Heritage | U.S. Naval Institute – August 11, 2011 [1959 ???]
USS Skate (SSN-578) Becomes the First Submarine to Surface at the North Pole
…The date was 11 August 1958 and the Skate had just become the first submarine to surface at the North Pole….
http://www.navalhistory.org/2011/08/11/uss-skate-ssn-578-becomes-the-first-submarine-to-surface-at-the-north-pole
———-
Navsource.org
[89] U.S. and British sailors explore the Arctic ice cap while conducting the first U.S./British coordinated surfacing at the North Pole. The ships are, left to right: the nuclear-powered attack submarine Sea Devil (SSN-664), the fleet submarine HMS Superb (S-109) , and the nuclear-powered attack submarine Billfish (SSN-676), 18 May 1987.

Jimbo

For those who want to raise the issue of Polynyas, here it is. I don’t deny them, but why did Wadhams not state clearly that this is normal? Polynyas are areas of the Arctic sea ice which is made up of persistently open water.

Polynyas are areas of persistent open water where we would expect to find sea ice. For the most part, they tend to be roughly oval or circular in shape, but they can be irregularly shaped, too. The water remains open because of processes that prevent sea ice from forming or that quickly move sea ice out of the region.
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/polynyas.html

Crispin in Waterloo

Takes much longer to cool down? Bunk. It cools much faster in the absence of ice. How do they get away with such basic errors of physics?
I also see they note the increase is water temperature. But there is no net gain in heat in the Arctic. It is past the ‘neutral line’ and is a net loser of heat. Claiming that the melted ice will let in enough additional heat to make the Arctic water a net accumulator is also not going to fly. The ice melt is from the ingress of warm water from the south. Now that it stopped it is refreezing again. What a surprise. The claims for the loss of sea ice being caused by ‘global warming’ are as many as they are unsupportable with the facts.

Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“Last year we saw huge areas of the ocean open up, which has never been experienced before.
I love these guys. To them “Never having happend in the last 30ish years” apparently translates to “has never been experienced before”. And somehow, the “Journalist” who is publishing this doesn’t have the guts to call them on this BS.

Severian

He always said it would be 2020, we have always been at war with Eastasia, not Eurasia, and chocolate rations have been increased from 30 gms to 25 gms per week. All is doubleplusgood!

So…it’s BETTER than we thought, in Bizzaro land?

Hoplite

No worse than we thought – the prognosis is ALWAYS worse than we thought.

JimS

The ocenas will boil away – Hansen
Children won’t know what snow is – Viner
The Arctic will be ice free – Wadham
There are more crackpots than you can shake a stick at – JimS

michael hart

We’re gonna need a bigger stick.

Brute

They own the stick. We can’t have it.

Bryan A

You got the 3 Wise Men … where is the MANN-ger??

Dawtgtomis

Gawd, does that make Algore the Holy Child?

Dawtgtomis

Or just a donkey looking on…

Jason Calley

Hey JimS! By 2020, the Inuit people will only have three words for “ice.” Those three words will be “rumored”, “invisible”, and “Slurpee”.
🙂

dccowboy

It doesn’t seem to me that he has changed int, only ‘refined’ it.
May 29, 2014 “the trend was so clear and so definite that it would go to zero by 2015 that I felt it was safe to make that prediction, and I still think it is …” certainly appears to me that he is still thinking ‘ice free’ by 2015. In fact he seems to have upped the ante by agreeing that the ‘death spiral’ is beyond our ability to affect. “Do you think that we’ve already passed the point of no return in terms of controlling polar ice cap melting?” ” Yes, I think we have.”
The 2020 date just offered a further prediction about the length of time the Arctic would be ‘ice free’ in the summer.

Leonard Lane

I do not see anything fun about such people sowing seeds of panic and despair with wild predictions and never, ever saying they were wrong when everything goes opposite of their predictions. In the meantime, he and his ilk are wasting untold $billions that could be used for worthwhile purposes. People are suffering around the world while these parasites waste the money. The money they waste could ease suffering of the poor and sick. Nothing fun or funny to those poor people suffering.

Bryan A

Relax…even the Bible says there will be MANY FALSE PROPHETS

Jimbo

There is nothing wrong with making a prediction, then changing your mind. What is wrong is not acknowledging your ‘error’ and not explaining why you have changed your prediction. If he has done this then let me apologize in advance.
PS Anthony, I think we need another Arctic ‘ice-free’ countdown clock.

Auto

Jimbo – quite right.
Appreciate your attention to this matter.
Peter Wadhams is – to my eyes – a very experienced polar hand – see, for example: –
http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/ and
http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/people/p.wadhams/ [over 40 polar expeditions . . . .]
Not being ageist, but as a matter of record, he is now past the state retirement age in the UK, having been born in May 1948.
[I’ve not found anything about his schooling, but have not sought Link-edIn, or similar. Maybe others can be more indefatigable?]
Accordingly, he probably [>99.5% certainty] has (the bulk of) his pension locked in.
It follows that he has a degree of freedom to try to foist his beliefs on others, should he so choose.
In fairness – do the believers usually grant that concession to non-believers? – he did say 2015 (and let’s agree that ‘ice-free’ means “ice-free, apart from perhaps a million square kilometres or so up in he Canadian archipelago, or near, where he ice is – um – pretty thick”, or similar) and it is only 2014.
{why am I cutting this guy a bit of rope? Because I can . . . . . . . .}
I think he will be wrong.
If he is right, I will say I erred tonight [if prompted . . . . My memory is imperfect – but ask, and you will receive.].
Now – if he is wrong, I would like to see his admission of error [and I’m sure he will be prompted!].
Auto

mpainter

Wadhams has the advantage of not caring if he looks ridiculous. Probably had developed this trait early in his life.
Arctic ice extent has reached a new equilibrium, beginning in 2007. Since that year, season-end ice extent has fluctuated about a mean. This will continue until SST changes.

Gentle Tramp

“Moving the goalposts” will be the favorite and very necessary “sport” of the faithful CO2-Witchhunters in the next 20 years. Here is another one by the German CAGW pope Schellnhuber:
http://notrickszone.com/2014/12/10/goal-post-migration-alert-father-of-2c-target-schellnhuber-postpones-co2-emissions-peak-10-years-from-2020-to-2030/

Rob Dawg

I think climate prognosticators should be subject to SEC rules for the dissemination of false information. People has invested billions based on these claims.

average joe

Exactly my belief Rob Dawg. 100% The situation is very similar. Corporate officers have tremendous incentives to report, or even believe in. biased information. The SEC rules and required auditing holds that somewhat in check. With the high stakes of these climate science prognostications, they do need to be held accountable for disseminating false info. Internal bias can make people believe things that are not facts. Perhaps this is something to suggest to our government reps to try to get some legislation passed.

KNR

Peter Wadhams ScD (born 14 May 1948), so currently 66 plus 6 equals72 and long retired so not around to be reminded of his claims , I wonder of that has anything to do with it ?

jorgekafkazar

Your slide rule needs oiling.

Kon Dealer

If he is not senile, then he either incompetent, or is a liar.
Given the current state of the Arctic sea ice, he has to be one of the above.

1saveenergy

Why only one ?? he’s a climatologist so could multi task !!

Bryan A

Just a Manipulator of Data. You can write a code to produce a Hocky Stick regardless of what garbage is fed into it

Alx

Evangelists have been using this trick for a while, that is of delaying and changing dates.
But even dooms day evangelists at least pretend to come up with a reason. They just don’t walk into the congregation and say, “Late breaking news, new date for the end of the world” and then talk about the pancake breakfast.

H.R.

They just don’t walk into the congregation and say, “Late breaking news, new date for the end of the world” and then talk about the pancake breakfast.

You apparently don’t attend the right church. In the Our Lady Gaia Church of CAGW and Blessed Climate Study Grants , it’s common practice.

Bryan A

World ends at 10…Film at 11

Bruce Cobb

Well obviously, 2020 is when the missing heat hiding deep in the oceans comes back out.
Duh.

Alx

But what if the missing heat continues downward into the core and the earths core overheats and the world explodes?
Well even in that case the professor would be wrong since the prediction of lack of Arctic ice shouldn’t count if the earth explodes.

asybot

Before the core explodes it would have to reach “Millions and Millions of degrees” (Al gore jr. I guess F, C, K degrees would not matter much then).

noaaprogrammer

U degrees?

It appears he has, in fact, maintained his prediction of an “ice free” Arctic in 2016.
He is simply being more specific and now saying it will be soon after the 48th month of 2016.
/grin

pablo an ex pat

Now it appears that the future is no longer certain while the past is still subject to change.

Indeed Pablo, Those who control the present control the past.

Thanks to the Internet, (and archive.org )
It’s just not possible to control information like it used to be.

Sweet Old Bob

Like Santa….those who control the presents control……
Or are they grants?…

Jake

Brilliant, Pablo. Oh yeah, I am a geologist who’s specialty is the past 15,000 years – so it is a bit painful to witness.

Guest post by WUWT reader Jimbo

Jimbo,
Nice post.
John

Anything is possible

Maybe being ridiculed by his fellow alarmists had something to do with it :
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/9/22/the-royal-and-the-arctic.html

D.I.

“He has studied the Arctic since 1970”
Maybe he should have studied the history of the Arctic as well.

asybot

After 44 years of study I would still give a “fail”.

looncraz

With the decline in summer temperatures and warmer winters I’d expect more snow and less seasonal melt slowly taking over the melt cycle.
We have held onto and slightly built upon our 2013 ice gains this year, don’t think 2015 will be the same, but I don’t think it will be a 2012 either…

Jimbo, Good post. We need to keep them accountable. Based on natural climate dynamics, I have about a thousand dollars in bets that Arctic sea ice will be clearly on the increase by 2025.

mountainape5

Erm why should he explain it? He’s getting paid well, hell I’d be predicting s** like this too.

brians356

Paul Ehrlich is the master. He’s been tap dancing for fifty plus years.

Nylo

True… all others are mere aprentices…

He is clueless and wrong.

Brute

State-of-the-art models clearly state that he is as unfailingly correct as he is incapable of error.
The models also predict that the 2020 date will be moved back once 2020 approaches.

george e. smith

I’m wondering if Bob Tisdale’s Alaska hot spot (oceanic) which may have spawned the immediate past Californian mega storm, could actually result in higher precipitation of solid rain over the disappearing arctic ice.
Wouldn’t a good snow cover, be a better insulator between the atmosphere and the sheet ocean ice ??
Anybody know ??
In silicon Valley the mega storm was a pffftt !!

george e. smith on December 12, 2014 at 12:59 pm
In silicon Valley the mega storm was a pffftt !!

george e. smith,
I was in New Almaden area in south part of San Jose during the media’s over-hyped storm. It was a rather benign pfffft at that.
John

Anymore, all weather is “Extreme” “Mega-” & Super-” weather.
Today we had a mega-sunny day . tonight will be Super-dark.
Extreme sunrise expected.

Gaia, in her infinite mercy, has chosen to give Mankind a reprieve, and has held back for 4 more years to see if we will finally Do The Right Thing, and raise taxes.
Because that’s what Gaia wants – it is written in the most Holy of Holy Book!

H.R.

@wws
Amen, brother ;o)
See ya Sunday at the Holy Mother Gaia Church of Benevolent Climate Science Grants potluck. I make a mean mac ‘n cheese casserole. Ya gotta try it. I hear Mann has a great Tree Bean Salad, unless he brings his Tiljander Upside-down Cake. It’s awesome.

noaaprogrammer

Whose bringing the cool aid?

H.R.

noaaprogrammer:
Whose bringing the cool aid?
Groan! I shoulda’ seen that one comin’.

ralfellis

No explanation? Of course he gave an explanation.
The previous prediction only bankrolled his cushy life, sucking the public teat, until 2016. This new prediction extends his teat-sucking until 2020. And when we get to 2019, he will extend once more to 2028. Beyond that he does not care, because he will be six feet under…..
Do you need further explanation?
Ralph

Mike from the cold side of the Sierra

Being slightly older than the good Dr. I am concerned as to the reason you think he will be 6 feet under by 2028 ?

DonM

Maybe the non-symetrical growth under the giant bags under his left eye?

DonM

… made u look…

Marcos

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
it looks to me that the trend since 2007 is pretty much flat.

Chip Javert

Marcos
You humiliate yourself, your family and your ancestors by insisting on using accurate and real data.
Please get with the program and stop that. We will send you supporting model data as soon as you:
(1) let us know what numbers you wish to see; and
(2) you clear out some space in your dumpster.
For Pete’s sake, if we can teach psychology & sociology students to parrot the “team” line, we can definitely teach you. Pretty soon you will forget all about posting short, crisp, accurate comments.
Continued backsliding will result in loss of your “HotWhopper” platinum access privileges (i.e.: granting the right to comment and edit/create responses to your comments).
/sarc off

“We will send you supporting model data as soon as you:”
We will send you supporting model data AND FUNDING BY WAY OF MANY GRANTS as soon as you:”
Fixed it for ya.

Marcos
December 12, 2014 at 1:12 pm
it looks to me that the trend since 2007 is pretty much flat.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
No, I read it as Jan 2006 beginning the Arctic Sea Ice Flat Spot.
We need the good noble bard Monkton to run his “How long is a flat line of irregular data a flat line?” algorithm on the Arctic Sea ice. For this entire past year, the Arctic sea ice has STAYED within 2 std deviations of its long-term mean sea ice area – so the Arctic is within normal variation. Whether past years were higher or lower is irrelevant, because this year, Arctic Sea ice has stayed within “normal” limits.
The much hyped “Arctic Death Spiral of ever-hotter Arctic ocean waters melting more sea ice which allows more energy to be absorbed is reversed: Between Aug 22 and Mar 22 each year, more net energy is now lost from the newly exposed open Arctic oceans by increased evaporation, convection, conduction and radiation than is gained by the sun’s exposure at low solar elevation angles.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
On the other hand, the Antarctic Sea Ice has been steadily increasing 1992, but its area has been exploding ever faster the past several years since June 2011. (A while before the the Arctic low spot of Sept 2012.) Arctic and Antarctic sea ice net area is unimportant when looking at reflection of energy from either pole.

David Socrates

The fact that Arctic ice is within two standard deviations of it’s average is not important. What is important is that Arctic ice has been below the running average for 13 consecutive years. Now, if the level of Arctic ice were randomly distributed, it should spend half it’s time above the average and half it’s time below it’s average.
..
Tell us, what is the probability that you could flip a coin and get heads 13 times consecutively?

mpainter

David:
Arctic Ice decline is over and a new, lower average extent has existed since 2007.

David Socrates

mpainter
..
The long term trend continues to be down. It takes more than seven years to make a “trend”. I suggest you look at 30 years worth of data.

The alarmist cult cherry-picks the Arctic only because arctic ice has been declining for a few years. The bipolar see-saw says that as one pole loses ice, the other gains ice, and vice-versa, so global ice remains unchanged. That is what’s happening here.
As we see, global ice [the red line] is slightly above its 30-year average.
Question: is there any scary prediction that the alarmist crowd has made correctly? So far, the answer is “No”. They have been 100% wrong about every alarming prediction. Tell us, how could they be as wrong as flipping a coin 13 times consecutively, and never calling it correctly? It takes real charlatanism to do that, and only mouth breathing head-nodders still believe them.
Why anyone would still believe the alarmist crowd’s nonsense is beyond me.

David Socrates

Be careful when you begin to say “global ice remains unchanged”

You seem to be ignoring data from GRACE and CryoSat-2 with your graph, as it is only showing sea ice area.

Remember, “global ice” is the sum of both sea ice extent floating on the sea , and the ice sheets and glaciers sitting on land.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060111/full
http://congrexprojects.com/docs/12c20_docs2/2-grace_esa-clic_forsberg.pdf?sfvrsn=2
http://www.cryosat.de/fileadmin/Documents/Workshops/PDFs/icemass_grace.pdf
The melting ice is causing sea level rise.

No, the graph of “global ice” is the sum of Arctic sea ice and Antarctic sea ice.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
And Antarctic sea ice, as confirmed by NSIDC email, does NOT include the 1.5 Mkm^2 of Antarctic shelf ice.
Show me that “calibration” thickness data (by ice core drills) for Antarctic land ice and Greenland land ice, would you? Last I heard there were only TWO drill bore holes verifying ice depth for all of Greenland – kind of like assuming you know EXACTLY how the height of the ground in Kansas, OK, MO, Nebraska, Wyoming, and New Mexico all change by measuring the height of one mountain in West Virginia and one mountain in Colorado. One time. (And no bore holes to rock outside of Vostok for all 14.0mMkm^2 of Antarctica.)

If melting ice is causing sea level rise, why is sea level rise decelerating? And GRACE was not designed to measure ice volume. Its measurements are questionable. Do a search here of ‘sea level’ and gain knowledge.
Once again: EVERY alarmist prediction has been flat WRONG. The only people left believing in CAGW are those whose beliefs are based on religion, not on science.

David Socrates

Mr RACookPE1978

Look very carefully at your graph.
Please note the title.
It says “Global Sea Ice Area”
..
Now, as you know “area” does not measure thickness. You need three dimensions to make volume.

Now, as you know “area” does not measure thickness. You need three dimensions to make volume.
David Socrates

Reflection (albedo changes between open ocean and sea ice) does NOT depend on thickness of the sea ice.
PIOMASS is a modeled program using assumptions designed to validate assumptions to justify further assumptions. For albedo, for multi-year-sea-ice, it has NO value other than serving alarmist catastrophysicists’ and their continued funding

David Socrates

Mr RACookPE1978
GPS measurement of Greenland bedrock rebound verifies and confirms the GRACE mass measurments
..
http://www.unavco.org/science/snapshots/cryosphere/2012/bevis.html

David Socrates

dbstealey

Sea levels are rising.
Acceleration or deceleration of the rate of rise does not change the fact that they continue to rise. The melting ice ends up in the sea.

Irrespective of the open sea losing heat, the total volume of ice is shrinking. That in and of itself is an indication that things are getting warmer. The melting is confirmed by sea level rise.

Melting sea ice cannot change ocean levels. Melting land ice has occurred in the past, has continued through to the present, and may continue for a while until the next Ice Age returns. At which time, sea levels will drop back to the “normal levels” some 250 – 380 feet below today’s highs. Fear the ice, for it kills. Embrace the warmth, for it brings life.

David Socrates

Mr RACookPE1978
Irrespective of the open sea losing heat, the total volume of ice is shrinking. That in and of itself is an indication that things are getting warmer. The melting is confirmed by sea level rise.

mpainter

Don’t need thirty years, myself. That is for people like yourself who wish to dodge the facts by citing some bs formula.

mpainter

The above was for DSocr.
Arctic ice extent has stabilized for seven years. You can expect it to grow now that the globe is poised for a deepening cooling trend. Get out your fur socks, sockrat.

David Socrates

mpainter.
..
If it’s supposed to grow, why is the 2014 Arctic extent less than the 2013 extent
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2014/12/asina_N_stddev_timeseries.png
See the blue line for 2014 dipped below the green line for 2013 in late September?

mpainter

Mother Nature did that so that alarmists would have something to wet their britches over.
Ma Nature has also accomodated you in western Antarctica, where geothermal heat has accelerated ice shelf movement. Now alarmists can gasp “Collapse!” and pee a whole puddle. Isn’t Mother Nature swell?

David Socrates

mpainter
Did Mother Nature play a joke on you in 2012 when she caused the Arctic extent to be the smallest in the satellite record? Arctic ice extent has stabilized for seven years…….except for 2012 right?

Jtom

David:
You have made the assumption that 1979-2000 represents the true long-term average. All of this is short-term snapshots when compared to the long cycles frequently found in nature. Considering that in earth’s history ice has extended far south of the northern pole, and has been completely free of ice during other periods, this whole issue is moot. The amount of ice at the poles cannot be used as an indicator of CAGW. Nothing is out of the realm of natural variability.

David Socrates

Jtom
..
No, the average used is the 1981-2010 average
..
Go here…
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
..
Then add years to the chart from 2013, 2012, 2010, etc….and on until you find the first year that has a minimum extent in Sept-Oct…

I counted 13. …

mpainter

Sockrat, it is going to get colder in the coming decade and I strongly advise that you break your habit of wetting your britches, before it gets too cold.
That will only make it worse for you, you see.

Sea levels have been rising since the LIA, and since the last great stadial before that. It is normal, natural, and not due to any human activity.
The endless predictions were for SL rise to accelerate. That has not happened. Thus, they were wrong.
It is amusing to watch alarmists. No matter how many times their predictions are shown to be wrong, they never stop Believing.
Just like “ice”, LOL! Ice. There is nothing about “ice” that matters, except that Arctic ice declined for a short time, giving the alarmist contingent incredible hope. Now will they face reality?
No, because their Belief is based on religion, not on science.
The melting ice ends up in the sea.
No foolin’. Where else would it end up? On a mountain?☺

Over 4.5 billion years you may get 13 consecutive heads.

yeppers: And NONE of those Greenland GPS locations is in the center of the Greenland ice pack: From the link above :

Observations
The Greenland GPS Network (GNET) of more than 50 geodetic stations can detect millimeter scale changes in the bedrock primarily along the Greenland coast. The network is dense enough and the instrument precision is accurate enough to decipher changes over months to decades and to attribute the changes to multiple factors.

So – If (when) the center of Greenland has 280+ feet of new ice deposited since 1944 (pushing the rocks under the middle of the ice cap down even further below sea level), where are the edges of the mountains around the ice cap expected to go? (Hint: Up.)

hunter

Why not 2021? Or 2027? How about 2019?
When 2020 comes and goes with Arctic icepack [doing] fine I bet this fine gentleman will, without pause or hesitation, make a prediction for 2025 to be ice free.

Resourceguy

Easy come, easy go, with tenure of course.

ConfusedPhoton

Peter Wadhams is a climate “scientist” therefore he will make any kind of wild prediction and then change it. Think of our friend Hansen and the Potomac flooding everywhere. Think of our friends in the UK Met Office and extreme weather, etc, etc.
Why bother with real science when you can just make it up!

Peter Wadhams Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge:
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015′
Stefan Rahmstorf Professor of Physics of the Oceans at the Potsdam Institute:
WUWT widget from 2009 wasn’t good enough.
Next these learned professors of Ocean Physics will tell us that “Martians are spying on us from the bottom of the ocean”.

Source: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/arctic-circle-assembly-2014-wadhams-no.html
The Arctic Circle Assembly met October 31 to November 2, 2014 in Reykjavik, Iceland. The event enabled three days of meetings and presentations on all things “Arctic.” See: http://arcticcircle.org/
The Alaskan Dispatch reporter summarized 10 key points he felt important – two are shared here:
[. . .]
2. The Arctic Ocean will likely have a sea ice free month by 2020: British physicist Peter Wadhams observed, there seems no natural mechanism for turning the thawing processes off. There seemed a broad consensus that even if there are efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions – the Arctic will continue warming for the foreseeable future. “Wadhams is predicting the end of the polar ice cap by the summer of 2020.” Alaskan Dispatch: http://www.adn.com/article/20141103/10-takeaways-2014-arctic-circle-assembly
[. . .]

Above is a reported source documenting Wadhams’ date of 2020 that he predicts.
John

Frederick Michael

The role of the Fram Strait in the ice loss makes any prediction of total loss suspect.
More Arctic sea ice freezes than melts EVERY YEAR, but a lot flushes out the Fram Strait (between Greenland and Svalbard) into the North Atlantic. When there’s less ice, there’s less flush. This negative feedback may prevent very low levels from going any lower. See here:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim365d.gif
There’s another possible effect having to do with the impact of this North Atlantic ice on the gulf stream but that’s very complex and may not be significant.

Lonie

Question ?
Do any of the prediction geniuses ever ask people that live in the Arctic their opinion and what their ancestors said about times past ?

Dawtgtomis

…Too expensive to fly those people to the lab for questioning.

Mark from the Midwest

That would require a highly paid ethnographer to construct some carefully leading questions in the original tongue of the natives, and then have 12 stipend-supported graduate students to be trained for the survey work, then flown to the arctic, and housed in temporary, military style shelter, flown in on a C5-A. At a total cost of $2.6 million. The problem is that my grant to do this is being held up since the Republicans took the majority in both chambers

If they did, the answer would be “It’s worse than we thought…”
Party line to get those gummint $$$, doncha know.
🙂

Curious George

Professor Waldhams is doing for Oxford what Professor Ehrlich is doing for Stanford. There is nothing like a tenure system .. but I don’t know much about Oxford.

Yellow Journalism

He actually made the statement in 2009, not this year. Here is an article from The Australian, feeding from The Times. No reason is given but it’s not a recent claim. Try 5 years ago. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/north-pole-ice-free-by-summer-2020/story-e6frg6so-1225786979402?nk=459040a0937211a4181a0099bb476bfb

North of 43 and south of 44

The big warmy hot had trouble clearing customs?

DD More

Jimbo, great memory hole resource.
Per the Tele atricle –
Dr Maslowski’s model, along with his claim that the Arctic sea ice is in a “death spiral”, were controversial but Prof Wadhams, a leading authority on the polar regions, said the calculations had him “pretty much persuaded.”
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
Although it would reappear again every winter, its absence during the peak of summer would rob polar bears of their summer hunting ground and threaten them with extinction.

So the ‘leading authority’ thinks the Most Incorrect Model is the best AND doesn’t know it is spring time ice hunting that is most important to the polee bears?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/01/are-polar-bear-researchers-blinded-by-belief-or-acting-dishonestly/

PaulH

Maybe his calculations discount rotten ice.
/snark

Doug Proctor

When they are correct they were prophets. When they are wrong they were raising consciousness.
They have no need for apology. Noble causes excuse over zealousness and intemperate exaggerations

mikewaite

It may be light relief to mock Waldhams and others of his ilk, good scientists who did pioneering work in the past but who cannot cope with changes in empirical evidence that challenge their beliefs, but in the real world the band wagon moves briskly on.
The BBC headline on the Lima talks is : “Will Kerry strike gold at Lima” which is perverse because he has gone to the summit with the express purpose of giving away gold – the wealth and savings of the people of America. How could he ever fail?
The BBC gives the impression that any minute now a decision will be announced that commits US and UK to an irreversible transfer of money and a disruption of normal life that , in Britain at least , has only previously been seen in the years during and immediately after WWII. I lived through some of that time and it really was not pleasant . But the BBC is jubilant at the prospect.

mikewaite

My apologies to the Prof : Wadhams not Waldhams

Carl Chapman

My prediction for Prof Wadham’s 2019 prediction: 2024.

Stevan Makarevich

Are you sure that is the correct photograph? I could have sworn it was Foster Brooks.

maybe it was taken after lunch, here is one from before
http://assets.wwf.org.uk/img/peterwadhams_240_9840.jpg

DonM

That was a heck of a lunch.

Mike from the cold side of the Sierra

and when it (all but the very old ice) melts for a month. What the hell happens that anyone would care about ?

MarkW

Doesn’t really matter, the Mayans predicted that the world would end in 2012, so obviously, none of us are even here.

pouncer

Correct me if I am mistaken, but I had thought that Greenland (the part of the Arctic that doesn’t float) maintained below freezing temperatures, even in high summer. (With temperatures dropping to – 30 C or so in winter.)
How is Greenland going to melt if the temperature never goes above 0 C? And how can the “Arctic” ever be “ice-free” if Greenland remains covered with ice?
Seems like a sloppy claim whatever the timetable.

Check the 10 day forecast for Summit Greenland. It rarely gets above freezing there, even in summer:
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/GL/Summit.html
Check Google earth photos of the tidewater glaciers around the perimeter of Greenland. I think Greenland ice is in good shape. Tidewater glaciers calve into the sea – it’s what they do as they advance.

mpainter

“Ice-free Arctic” refers to sea ice. There is evidence that the Arctic was ice free earlier in the Holocene, when it was warmer than today (the Climatic Optimum).
There is slim chance of that happening now, as the globe steps down into a new ice age.