Over the past few years the Arctic expert, Professor Peter Wadhams, has strongly predicted an ‘ice-free’ Arctic no later than 2016. Late this year he changed it to 2020 without apparently giving an explanation.
Guest post by WUWT reader Jimbo
Peter Wadhams is a Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge and an expert on Arctic sea ice and waves. He has studied the Arctic since 1970. In the last few years he has predicted that the Arctic will be ‘ice-free’ no later than September 2016. (It is generally accepted that an ‘ice-free’ Arctic is 1 million km2 or less, as it is very difficult to melt the thick multi-year ice in the Canadian Archipelago).
Late this year Prof. Wadhams changed his prediction of an ice-free Arctic to 2020.
Q) Has Professor Wadhams given the reason[s] for his changed prediction? As a ‘denier’ I just want to know so that I can have a better understanding of when we are likely to see an ‘ice-free’ Arctic.
Below are his repeated predictions of an ‘ice-free’ Arctic no later than 2016.
Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
Dr Maslowski’s model, along with his claim that the Arctic sea ice is in a “death spiral”, were controversial but Prof Wadhams, a leading authority on the polar regions, said the calculations had him “pretty much persuaded.”
Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.
“It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
—–
BBC News – 27 August 2012
Professor Peter Wadhams, from Cambridge University, told BBC News: “A number of scientists who have actually been working with sea ice measurement had predicted some years ago that the retreat would accelerate and that the summer Arctic would become ice-free by 2015 or 2016.
“I was one of those scientists – and of course bore my share of ridicule for daring to make such an alarmist prediction.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19393075
—–
Guardian – 17 September 2012
Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
——-
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” he said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4084c8ee-fa36-11e2-98e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2hozOJWog
——-
The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.
“The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
——-
Arctic News – June 27, 2012
My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/06/when-sea-ice-is-gone.html
——-
TheRealNews – 29 May 2014
Transcript [Youtube] http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=11899
[Q] WORONCZUK: And, Peter, what’s your take? Do you think that we’ve already passed the point of no return in terms of controlling polar ice cap melting?
[A] WADHAMS: Yes, I think we have. A few years ago, I predicted that the summer sea ice–that’s the September minimum–would go to zero by about 2015. And at that stage, it was only really one model that agreed with me. My prediction was based on observations from satellites and from measurements from submarines of ice thickness, which I’ve been doing from British subs, and Americans have been doing the same from American subs. And the trend was so clear and so definite that it would go to zero by 2015 that I felt it was safe to make that prediction, and I still think it is, because next year, although this year we don’t expect things to retreat much further than last, next year will be an El Niño year, which is a warmer year, and I think it will go to zero.
I knew earlier this year he would change his mind. I was just waiting for the reason he would give, but I can’t find it.
“we’ve already passed the point of no return in terms of controlling polar ice cap melting”
Stated by a Professor,
so the science is settled then, so no point in changing our ways !!!
Actually, in an ironic sort of way, that may be the ONLY correct statement he’s made, given that we’ve NEVER been able to control what the ice does, one way or the other. The “point of no return” probably happened a few million years ago.
In any case, current global SEA ice extent is now more than one standard deviation above the mean for this date:
?w=1536&h=1023
?w=1536&h=1023
The big news is that he can predict El NIno years……….
Why was Wadhams smiling through most of the interview. He really doesn’t appear too concerned by his own predictions.
How is it possible for such a person to be employed by a University? The University of [Cambridge] is seriously putting its reputation at risk as are all the Universities supporting AGW (A complete fraud and forecasting failure). Maybe a list of universities supporting AGW should be published online to [be] sure your son/daughter [doesn’t] go there to study (and also for posterity, when the fraud goes to court). LOL
Because just as in religion and politics, there is ZERO accountability. They continue to get funding/grants, and the train rolls on…
Forgive tipos my keyboard!
an ‘ice-free’ Arctic is 1 million km2 or less…..
That’s the size of Egypt…..just once I’d like to see someone superimpose a map of Egypt on to the Arctic….just so everyone could see how ludicrous it is
“Why was Wadhams smiling through the entire interview …”
“Duping delight” is the clinical term (no joke), psychos really enjoy getting away with a whopper. Usually its just a quick smirk, he must really enjoy this whopper to smile the whole time.
He’s remembering how he’s going to get away with it.
Gruber told him to just keep lying and smiling.
That’s worth smiling about when you know it works.
Wadhams is a gimp.
Talking of which, does anyone know what happened to that bloke who was going to live on an iceberg for a year?
I have no idea but it might be interesting to get an update.
What was that guy’s name?
Alex Bellini
http://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/man-to-live-melting-iceberg-year-for-climate-change-action-alex-bellini.html
Here’s an update – not going until spring, when of course, he’ll find an ice berg ready to melt.
“Alex Bellini, 36, will set off next spring to look for a suitable iceberg north of Greenland with the intention of highlighting the speed at which the planet is warming,”
“says he feels compelled to ‘do something’”
“‘This man is amazing and what an incredible project,’”
“However, the project has been met with a mixed response.”
“Getting tired of people getting sanctimonious about not getting a job and essentially living like a bum ‘for the planet’ ”
http://metro.co.uk/2014/08/26/adrift-adventurer-to-live-on-melting-iceberg-to-highlight-climate-change-4846342/
Thanks. Anthony; we should follow this. How about a link on the r/h side of the site? With hope, one week when he’s on it, it will be a rollover.
Of course he could blame his postponement on the hiatus. That would nullify his culpability.
So Apocalypse Not, again? Has anyone told Leonardo Dicaprio? I think he was planning on partying at the North Pole on his rented mega-yacht, perhaps rowed by polar bears if he can’t find enough bio-diesel.
Like the Riley Finn character in Buffy, I never thought I would need to learn the plural of apocalypse.
But of course; the reason is accelerated man-made global warming!
And deservedly so! Wadhams is an ideal example of the complete lack of correlation between intelligence and the number of degrees after your name.
There are no degree programs in wisdom that I know of.
A real Millerite that chap. Of course, some people made a religion out of what Miller taught. Oddly it is still around today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millerism
You heard him say his prediction was based on computer models.
I think anytime we hear long term predictions in the natural sciences based on computer models, we should just remind the speaker and ourselves that computer models in the natural sciences have proven to to unreliable, again and again. There are too many variables, known and unknown. We don’t have any good grasp on the parameters corresponding to these variables. And, every variable potentially interacts with all other variables. A simple system with just three variables has 2^3 variables, interactions, and constant (Plus measurement error). The PDO wasn’t discovered until the mid 90’s, which means every computer model of climate before then was incorrect. And today, from what I read, as an amateur, there is no way to model or predict the PDO. There is just too much we don’t know to create computer models of climate. It is a joke.
The fastest computer just makes bad predictions fastest. Like I say, if they could predict climate, they would be billionaires just from investing in corn and soybean futures.
Cue the muzak whilst we ride the downward Arctic ice elevator. I think we will all be thoroughly sick of the tune before we arrive, if we ever arrive!
Another case of mistaking the middle of a sine curve for a linear trend.
We need a campaign to educate people in the media of one thing about scientific theories: their proponents use them to make predictions as a way of confirming their validity. If scientists will not make predictions that we can confirm or deny by independent observations, they are not scientists, they are promoters. And when computer model predictions don’t come true, you don’t just slide the date, you declare them to be invalid.
I’ve been waiting to see this for some time. All it will take is just one major media outlet to list all of these claims. And it can’t be Fox, for obvious reasons.
But any one of the other major networks would have a blockbuster of a story on their hands. Maybe 60 Minutes?…Anyone?…Beuhler?
🙂
I think Wadhams is just trying to match the Peak Oil prophets. I lost track of how many times the world has run out of oil since 1970.
or over-population
Or that the days of oil under 100$/ barrel are never to be seen again.. That was the .97 consensus about a decade ago when oil peaked out at about 180. This time its different they said.
The likes of this grant-seeking moron professor just go on and on with no consequence for their actions. Sereze, Flannery, Hansen and many others are in the same game.
Yet sceptics keep playing this game with these snake oil salesmen on their turf under their rules.
How many times and ways has the 97% meme been debunked? Yet it’s still trotted out by those in authority without batting an eyelid.
How many times has the ocean acidification meme been debunked? Yet it’s still trotted out by those in authority without batting an eyelid.
That carpet bagger Steven Chu was in Australia this week addressing the National Press Club. He stated every debunked meme as if they were proven facts.
Time to change tack. There ain’t no wind where we’re sailing and it’s not enough to hope mother nature will sink the CAGW ship. 18 yrs of mother nature hasn’t even flapped the CAGW sails.
Couldn’t agree more, and have stated this several times. It doesn’t speak well to the average intelligence of Jane/John Q. Public. The general public is intellectually lazy, and unwilling to commit even 15mins/day in actually researching anything. Pink Floyd got it right with the term “Comfortably Numb”.
I frequently reduce the “evidence” to just one, single data point when I’m in these discussions with friends and neighbors. Like a single tidal gauge, or the buoy temperature data from the ocean buoy nw of San Fran. I always use something that can’t have it’s data “adjusted”, and ask if it’s warming up, how come this data doesn’t show it? How come that data doesn’t show it? The temp trend in Maine is another favorite…I explain that in 2013, if you looked at the trend from the mid 1800s to present, there was NO warming in Maine…flat line. But if you checked the same data in 2014, now it’s suddenly warmed up in Maine by 2degC. How did that happen?
By then they are typically VERY uncomfortable, and they desperately want to crawl back into their comfortable box and curl up with their binky.
Another great line comes from the movie Men In Black, when Tommy Lee Jones says “No…a person is smart. People are stupid.”
I’m pretty sure, if you listen to the audio, he said the Arctic would become mice-free by 2015. And I think he’s on track! Go, science!!
Oh, is that what he said.
I was thinking he said the arctic ice would be free, and I was trying to figure out who would pay for it in the first place.
The ice will be free…it’s the shipping and handling that’s gonna be a bitch.
“mice-free” He is holding that in reserve in case he runs out of wriggles.
Jimbo great post! Your well- sourced comments are always high quality and appreciated. Glad to see a full post here on WUWT. We are all richer and more knowledgeable from your work.
+1
Well said. Thanks Jimbo – I don’t know your background, but you are one sharp person and I appreciate all your work here and elsewhere.
Ditto. Thanks Jimbo – as obsessed and as passionate as many of us – it takes over our lives when we know there are other (probably more important) things we should really be doing. You must spend hours collecting all those quotes and references in order to seek the truth. I remember once staying up for three nights until ‘stupid o’clock’ just researching and calculating how much man-made CO2 is produced by large scale bread manufacture on a global scale – just to prove a point. Thanks again.
Did this guy predict the record sea ice around Antarctica this year?
Actually the furious fifties have been sending up wintery summer weather (even by the standards of NZ’s deep south) and the weather gods at the National Institute for Atmospheric and Water research (NIWA) have been strangely silent about it.
I think he’s just an ARCTIC expert. 🙂
When’s he retire?
Typical cult behavior.
When the predicted end of world doesn’t happen. Just have a vision and change the date.
It’s great, isn’t it? ‘Same time next year, lads.’