UPDATE: Sunday 5/6/12 7PM PST – The FAIL occurred, with the predication hype not even close. Read here: Tuvalu flooding FAIL – no supermoon tide of any significance
Guest post by Andi Cockroft
The MSM down under are running with a story about the next close encounter with the moon due in the next day or so, a “super-moon”, and the likely impacts on the low-lying Tuvalu Island Nation.
With a population of just over 10,000, Tuvalu – formerly known as the Ellice Islands – is one of the smallest nations in the world, just ahead of the Vatican!
From Wikipedia:
At its highest, Tuvalu is only 4.6 metres (15 ft) above sea level, and Tuvaluan leaders have been concerned about the effects of rising sea levels for some years. Whether there are measurable changes in the sea level relative to the islands of Tuvalu is a contentious issue. There were problems associated with the pre-1993 sea level records from Funafuti which resulted in improvements in the recording technology to provide more reliable data for analysis. The degree of uncertainty as to estimates of sea level change relative to the islands of Tuvalu is reflected in the conclusions made in 2002 from the available data. The 2011 report of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program published by the Australian Government] concludes: “The sea-level rise near Tuvalu measured by satellite altimeters since 1993 is about 5 mm per year.”
A nearby neighbor are our friends over at Kiribati, who must be completely wetting themselves (but not by high tides) at the thought of all that wonderful UN monies due to head their way. A moon at perigee should be like Manna from Heaven.
But what if nothing significant happens? What then?
At perigee, the moon approaches its closet to earth, and this particular approach is being referred to as a “Super Moon”.
Video here:
According to website “Stuff”, the interactive arm of Fairfax media:-
A “super-moon” will be a novelty for New Zealanders on Sunday, but for the 12,000 people of Tuvalu it is a foreboding practice for a future where rising seas make their homeland uninhabitable.
On Monday and Tuesday super-moon king tides will leave much of the capital atoll of Funafuti virtually below sea-level.
On Sunday night the Moon will be 14 per cent bigger and 30 per cent brighter than any other full moon this year, the US space agency NASA says.
Known as a “perigee moon”, it occurs when the moon reaches its closest point to Earth.
The full moon will occur at 3.35pm on Sunday, New Zealand time, but will not be visible here until moonrise over New Zealand at 5.23pm.
With a clear sky, it guarantees Sunday night will be a bright one.
NASA says the super moon has a reputation for trouble, causing high tides, making dogs howl and keeping people awake.
The space agency says the best time to look at it is when the moon is near the horizon.
But what is the reality of a Moon at Perigee?
According to those folks over at NOAA, very little – see here.
An extract:
The moon is the primary source of the gravitational forces which cause the tides. The proximity of the moon in relation to the earth does have an effect on the range of the tides at any given time. In each of its 28-day elliptical orbits, the moon reaches a “perigee,” its closest point of approach to the earth. During these periods, there will be a slight increase in the average range of tides. The increases in the range of the tides is seen by a slightly higher than average high tide, as well as a slightly lower than average low tide. Additionally, twice each month, around the times of the new moon and full moon, when the earth, sun, and moon are nearly in line, there is an increase in the average range of the tides. These are called “spring tides.” Three or four times a year, the occurrence of a new or full moon will coincide with the “perigee” of the moon, which Mr. Wood has termed the “perigean spring tides”.
The difference between the “perigean spring tides” and the normal tidal ranges for all areas of the coast is small. In most cases the difference is only a couple of inches. The largest difference occurs in certain areas of the Alaska coast where the range of the tide was increased by approximately 6 inches. But considering that these areas have an average tidal range of more than 30 feet, the increase is but a small percentage of the whole (less than a 2% increase).
So, will Tuvalu vanish beneath the waves? Well unless it’s less than 2 inches above seal-level, then probably not – so no worries there then.
I really do feel a rather smug FAIL coming on – then again it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong – hence stopping gambling on the gee-gee’s.
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I also suspect a large FAIL is on the way but I doubt it will be reported as such by the MSM.
King tides are always high. Tuvula has removed sand and gravel from its foreshores and should be erecting sea walls. Also it is sinking a bit. This happen always with Atolls. But no amount of climate change funding will alter that.
There’s a weatherman in New Zealand called Ken Ring who has written quite a bit about the effect of moon on tides and weather.
Take what he writes with a pinch of salt, but he has some interesting insights nonetheless.
No doubt he will have opinions on the effect of this supermoon…….
“The sea-level rise near Tuvalu measured by satellite altimeters since 1993 is about 5 mm per year.” – The last time I looked up the sea level references for Tuvalu I am sure the increase over the last 20 – 30 years was Zero. Wasn’t there a recent article showing sea levels falling in this area? Wasn’t there an article saying that Tuvalu was actually growing due to deposition rather than disappearing?
Or is my poor old memory failing me again?
[i]These are called “spring tides.” Three or four times a year, the occurrence of a new or full moon will coincide with the “perigee” of the moon, which Mr. Wood has termed the “perigean spring tides”.[/i]
So it happens at least 3 times a year?
Where do the Tuvalans go to?
Does Rio have anything to do with the amount of drivel that is being spouted forth?
Apart from man’s recent impact on the islands through the removal of sand and coral for building materials, the islands have grown so as to be a few feet above water. If in the past, sea level had been higher then the islands would now be that much higher too.
On Sunday night the Moon will be 14 per cent bigger and 30 per cent brighter than any other full moon this year, the US space agency NASA says.
Does NASA say where that additional 14% mass will come from and where it will be going on Monday?
No, no, you are all wrong I tell you! The old crone next door spat into her tea cup & told me in truth, I guarantee that somewhere around the world, there will be freak weather, storms, hail, snow, thunder, lightening, heavy rain, drought, sunshine, cloudiness, unusual cold, unusual warmth, dust storms, light rain, mist, fog, low cloud, high cloud, freak waves, no waves, some waves, melting ice, freezing water, we must act now before it’s too late to stop these things happening it’s just so unnatural, weird & disruptive, it’s never happened in the past……………have I missed anything? Sarc off 😉
“It’s actually the land mass, that goes up and down” Ken Ring
http://youtu.be/eRTZXLoW3y4
The sea isn’t rising. Their island is sinking. Many if not all volcanic islands in the southern ‘Ring-of’fire’ sink as the magma chambers move underneath them. The Hawaiian islands are slowly moving as the newest islands grow and the smallest sinks. In time another Island will pop up as the vents move.
They should do what their ancestors did. It’s worked so far or they wouldn’t be here to worry about it.
What usually causes flood disasters is when a spring tide coincides with an extreme low pressure area and a bad storm or hurricane with an onshore wind.
Tides, whether neap or spring or even “perigee spring” happens regularly several times a year and is nothing out of the usual.
Incidentally it is possible to get just a little extra mileage out of an “perigee spring tide” if Earth is simultaneously at perhelion, i e closest to the sun. I would expect that a perfect “perigee perhelion spring tide” might possibly gain another few inches at high tide.
At only 15 ft above sea level, one good sized typhoon will wipe it out long before it completely sinks or gets covered by mm per year of sea level rise.
Oh show us the way to the next subsidy
Oh don’t ask why.. don’t ask why we lie
Cuz if we don’t find that next little grant
I tell you we must die
I tell you we all fry
I tell you
command you
to buy my every lie
Oh, moon of Tuvalu
We now must say goodbye…
we’ve lost our shame and values
and must scam handouts, oh you know why.
what surprises me is that nobody worries about the Palm and other artificial island creations off Dubai – not any higher than Tuvalu above sea level?
“…virtually below sea-level.”
That’ll be above sea-level, then.
Dubai isn’t worried about its sea level because Arabs are rational.
Bill Tuttle says:
May 4, 2012 at 1:57 am
On Sunday night the Moon will be 14 per cent bigger and 30 per cent brighter than any other full moon this year, the US space agency NASA says.
Does NASA say where that additional 14% mass will come from and where it will be going on Monday?
==================
Obviously its ‘dark matter’ the rest of the time.
Alan the Brit says:
May 4, 2012 at 2:26 am
……………have I missed anything?
Plague of frogs, plague of boils, shower of herrings …
C’mon, the old crone’s not trying hard enough!!
Rhys Jaggar says:
May 4, 2012 at 12:56 am
There’s a weatherman in New Zealand called Ken Ring who has written quite a bit . . .
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
. . . all of it proven nonsense. He is a national embarrassment.
According to the video report the perigee moon of March 2011 was a couple hundred kilometers closer and, to all accounts, they survived. Other than feeling and increased urge to howle nothing unusual will happen tonight. That is unless this is the first full moon since you were bitten.
Funafuti tide predictions are here.
This is not, repeat not, slated to be a big king tide. The existence of the “super-moon” doesn’t have that effect on the Tuvalu tides. Here’s the year’s highest tide for a number of years.
SOURCE
2012 is hardly in the running …
w.
I’ll be watching for earthquakes or volcanoes.
If there’s a fault line or magma reservoir somewhere that’s been building up pressure and is about to give, then the extra stress and strain from a stronger tidal force might be all that’s needed to push it over the edge and trigger a release.
However, I wouldn’t get too alarmed. I’ve read that the increase in seismic or volcanic activity is less than 1% for a typical full or new moon, so I wouldn’t expect a perigee full or new moon to be materially different.
ima start a light chortle now and slowly build up to the guffaws on sunday.
thanks for the schadenfreude alert!
There is according to the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project some subsidence but an overall trend of sea level rise in the order of 3.7mm/yr (if I am reading this report correctly):
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60033/IDO60033.2010.pdf