Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a paper “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model”, published…

'Let’s face it. The climate has never been more boring.'

Why you won’t see headlines as climate science enters the doldrums Guest post by Dr. Robert G. Brown, Physics Department of Duke University (elevated from a  comment on this thread: RSS Reaches Santer’s 17 Years) This (17 years) is a non-event, just as 15 and 16 years were non-events. Non-events do not make headlines. Other…

About that missing hot spot in the upper troposphere

Climate Dialogue about the (missing) hot spot by  Marcel Crok Over at the Climate Dialogue website we start with what could become a very interesting discussion about the so-called tropical hot spot. Climate models show amplified warming high in the tropical troposphere due to greenhouse forcing. However data from satellites and weather balloons don’t show much…

Comparing Climate Models – Part Two

Guest Essay by Geoffrey H Sherrington See Part One of June 20th at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/20/comparing-climate-models-part-one/ In Part One, there was a challenge to find missing values for a graph that vaguely resembled the spaghetti graph of comparisons of GCMs. Here is the final result. RESULTS See Sherrington_PartTwo (PDF) for pictures & tables. Each series follows the…

Dr. Murray Salby on Model World -vs- Real World

Pierre Gosselin (and commenter Bill_W) tips us to this: Die kalte Sonne website here has just posted the video presentation of Murry Salby in Hamburg in April. If anyone ever demolished the dubious CO2 AGW science, it’s Salby! Most of the presentation is very mathematical and technical. But the last 10 minutes sums everything up very…

More climate models FAIL – A chink in the armor at Science?

People send me stuff. Lance Wallace writes: Anthony, this short “Perspectives” report in Science seems to me to be worthy of a posting in WUWT. Not only is it a very clear indication of crucial problems with the GCMs, it appears in Science magazine, for years a dogged defender of the faith. I’m including the…

Are regional models ready for prime time?

Guest post by Marcel Crok A few months ago we  made the launch of the international discussion platform . This week we start the third dialogue about the (added) value of regional climate models. We have three excellent participants joining this discussion: Bart van den Hurk of KNMI in The Netherlands who is actively involved…

Climate models aren't good enough to hindcast, says new study

From the University of Gothenburg Climate models are not good enough Only a few climate models were able to reproduce the observed changes in extreme precipitation in China over the last 50 years. This is the finding of a doctoral thesis from the University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Climate models are the only means to predict…