‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from…
Tag: Global climate model
'Let’s face it. The climate has never been more boring.'
Why you won’t see headlines as climate science enters the doldrums Guest post by Dr. Robert G. Brown, Physics Department of Duke University (elevated from a comment on this thread:…
No Matter How the CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models Are Presented They Still Look Bad
UPDATE: I’ve added a comment to the end of the post about the use of 1990 as the start year. # # # After an initial look at how the…
A low-sensitivity climate model that outperforms the Met Office's HADGEM2
Climate sensitivity is IMHO, the most important unresolved issue in climate science. A number of recent papers, including the IPCC AR5 leak, plus the recent Economist leak of a later…
About that missing hot spot in the upper troposphere
Climate Dialogue about the (missing) hot spot by Marcel Crok Over at the Climate Dialogue website we start with what could become a very interesting discussion about the so-called tropical…
Comparing Climate Models – Part Two
Guest Essay by Geoffrey H Sherrington See Part One of June 20th at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/20/comparing-climate-models-part-one/ In Part One, there was a challenge to find missing values for a graph that vaguely…
Dr. Murray Salby on Model World -vs- Real World
Pierre Gosselin (and commenter Bill_W) tips us to this: Die kalte Sonne website here has just posted the video presentation of Murry Salby in Hamburg in April. If anyone ever demolished…
More climate models FAIL – A chink in the armor at Science?
People send me stuff. Lance Wallace writes: Anthony, this short “Perspectives” report in Science seems to me to be worthy of a posting in WUWT. Not only is it a…
Are regional models ready for prime time?
Guest post by Marcel Crok A few months ago we made the launch of the international discussion platform . This week we start the third dialogue about the (added) value…
Climate models aren't good enough to hindcast, says new study
From the University of Gothenburg Climate models are not good enough Only a few climate models were able to reproduce the observed changes in extreme precipitation in China over the…
Commitment studies belie "consensus" claim that a persistent high level of temperature forcing cannot cause continued warming
Guest post by Alec Rawls They say it all the time: even if there were some substantial mechanism of enhanced solar forcing it couldn’t be responsible for late 20th century…
Claim: Five climate-forcing mechanisms govern 20,000 years of climate change
FOREWORD: I don’t agree with many of the claims made in this paper, particularly the retrograde tri-synodic Jupiter/Saturn cycle claims. This is not a peer reviewed paper. That said, I’m willing…
New paper predicts SST temperature based on Pacific Centennial Oscillation
Here’s figure 18, which I found interesting, especially the red line. – Anthony Guest post by Bob Tisdale Today, blogger “slimething” left me a link to the Karnauskas et al…
AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe
Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation…
New paper on Global Water Vapor puts climate modelers in a bind
Where’s that positive feedback that is supposed to manifest itself in water vapor, the most potent natural greenhouse gas? Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. writes: New Paper “Weather And Climate Analyses…
Climate models outperformed by random walks
First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced…
Pollution enhanced thunderstorms warm the planet?
From the DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a new paper in GRL saying something that doesn’t make much sense to me. As shown in the diagram above, thunderstorms transport heat from…
IPCC Models vs Observations – Land Surface Temperature Anomalies for the Last 30 Years on a Regional Basis
Guest post by Bob Tisdale In two posts about a year ago and more recently in my book, we compared the satellite-based sea surface temperature anomalies and CMIP3-based climate model…
Models say a future shift of western USA to "drier stormier"
More of the “extreme events” meme… From the AGU weekly highlights Regional models expect drier, stormier western United States Key Points Statistically significant increases in western US future extreme winter…
Climate modeling turkey shoot, western style
Western U.S. Precipitation Extremes—How Did This Turkey Get Published? By Dr. Patrick Michaels When it comes to changes in future precipitation across the United States, climate models projections are all…
Scafetta prediction widget update
By Dr. Nicola Scafetta It is time to update my widget comparing the global surface temperature, HadCRUT3 (red and blue), the IPC 2007 projection (green) and my empirical model (black…
Omitted variable fraud: vast evidence for solar climate driver rates one oblique sentence in AR5
Guest post by Alec Rawls “Expert review” of the First Order Draft of AR5 closed on the 10th. Here is the first paragraph of my submitted critique: My training is…
Friday Funny – modeling double feature
Josh of cartoonsbyjosh.com writes: There is a wonderful George Monbiot article here… http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jan/26/weather-forecasters-daily-mail …on how the Daily Mail hired ‘Positive Weather Solutions’, a bunch of models, to do their weather…
Scafetta on his latest paper: Harmonic climate model versus the IPCC general circulation climate models
Guest Post by Dr. Nicola Scafetta Herein, I would like to briefly present my latest publication that continues my research about the meaning of natural climatic cycles and their implication…