Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5

Guest Essay by Dr. Norman Page 1.The Demise of the IPCC and the CAGW Delusion. a) Overview. In the AR5 Summary for Policymakers the IPCC glossed over  the developing cooling trend…

IPCC Adjusts Model-Predicted Near-Term Warming Downwards

This is another post that illustrates and discusses just how poorly climate models simulate one of the most important climate variables: global surface temperatures. I’ve included a copy of this…

Lack of Data For All Phases of Water Guarantees Failed IPCC Projections

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball Lack of temperature data is a problem, but measures of water and precipitation are much worse. Temperature changes, especially cooling, are important to a…

Radiative Forcing, Radiative Feedbacks and Radiative Imbalance – The 2013 WG1 IPCC Report Failed to Properly Report on this Issue

Guest essay by Roger A. Pielke Sr. Main Points 1. The difference in ocean heat content at two different time periods provides the global average radiative imbalance over that time…

FROM SCIENCE…TO ART…TO HYPOTHETICALS

The new RCPs are not projections, probabilities, prophecies or pathways – they might possibly be potentialities. Guest essay by Barry Brill The IPCC begins with science: “In sum, a strategy…

Scientific Critique of IPCC's 2013 'Summary for Policymakers'

(PDF of this report also available below) by Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, S. Fred Singer, and Willie Soon* Introduction The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)…

Another Reason Why IPCC Predictions (Projections) Fail. AR5 Continues to Let The End Justify the Unscrupulous Means

Noble cause corruption in the process. Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball Someone said economists try to predict the tide by measuring one wave. The IPCC essentially try to predict…

Thom Hartmann's 'Last Hours' video negated by IPCC AR5

From The End is Near department comes this video documentary from lefty talk radio guy Thom Hartmann that claims we are on the verge of a “mass extinction” due to…

Some notes on the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)

FYI. Some email correspondence in my Inbox, for those with an interest in an alternate viewpoint of the IPCC: ========================================================== At 10 AM PDT Tomorrow, Sunday, October 13th, you can…

Tail wagging the dog – IPCC to rework AR5 to be 'consistent with the SPM'

Dave Burton writes: Anthony, The IPCC replied promptly to my inquiry (below), and they surprised me, twice: 1. They say that the just released “final” draft of the AR5 WG1…

Animated analysis shows that IPCC AR5 global warming prediction is lower than AR4, TAR, and FAR

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein I just updated my December 2012 IPCC “Arrows” animation based on the latest available IPCC AR5 (2013) Global Warming prediction for 2035. One good result…

AMAZING: The IPCC May Have Provided A Realistic Illustration

In the post Is Ocean Heat Content Data All It’s Stacked Up to Be? I explained all of the problems associated with Ocean Heat Content data, in great detail. For…

Lindzen: Understanding The IPCC AR5 Climate Assessment

Guest essay by Dr. Richard Lindzen Each IPCC report seems to be required to conclude that the case for an international agreement to curb carbon dioxide has grown stronger. That…

IPCC Still Delusional about Carbon Dioxide

INITIAL NOTE: If you have not had the opportunity to view a model-data comparison of global surface temperature anomalies, where the models and data are compared during the two warming…

The Computer says NO – The IPCC 2013 Summary for Policymakers

By Tom Quirk The IPCC use of computer models to predict temperatures, rain fall, sea level rises and other weather related events either global or regional has comprehensively failed to…

No Matter How the CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models Are Presented They Still Look Bad

UPDATE: I’ve added a comment to the end of the post about the use of 1990 as the start year. # # # After an initial look at how the…

The 2013 IPCC AR5 Report: Facts -vs- Fictions

Guest essay by Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Professor of Geology, Western Washington University Mark Twain popularized the saying “There are liars, damn liars, and statisticians.” After reading the recently-released [IPCC…

IPCC's High-impact, low-probability risk media talking points

 ‘Abrupt Climate Change’ may turn out to be an IPCC own goal Guest essay by Barry Brill It’s one thing to terrify the populace with apocalyptic rhetoric and images of…

The IPCC flip flop on year 2100 temperature projections

Andrew Montford at Bishop Hill recently posted links to the AR5 second order draft materials and comments dated March 28th, 2013. With those available it allows us to begin constructing…

You don't want to see sausage or climate policy being made

Tom Nelson points this out – IPCC sausage-making details: Saudi Arabia cautioned against “giving policy makers the message that CO2 drives global warming” Summary of the Twelfth Session of the…

McIntyre on IPCC's switching the pea under the thimble

Fixing the Facts – By Steve McIntyre Figure 1.4 of the Second Order Draft clearly showed the discrepancy between models and observations, though IPCC’s covering text reported otherwise. I discussed…

Confidence tricks between IPCC AR4 and AR5

Patrick Carlberg writes: I can’t assess the validity of the values from the climate models presented in AR5 (mostly due to lack of time). But I can tell you there…

The WUWT Hotsheet for Monday Sept 30th, 2013

(Personal note – apologies for the light posting today, I’m overwhelmed with work, and exhausted from overwork – Anthony) The IPCC AR5 falls flat  Dr. Judith Curry has been making…

IPCC AR5 full final report released – full access here

From the IPCC website: Final Draft Note The Final Draft Report, dated 7 June 2013, of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013:…