By P Gosselin
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
A new Prognos study published on October 12, 2026, estimates that Germany will need around 5.7 to 6.4 trillion euros between 2025 and 2045 to restructure its energy system and economy—amounting to approximately 270 to 300 billion euros annually.
These costs cover the transition of transport, heating, and power supply to a 100% renewable energy mix. A significant portion of this is required to build and operate long-distance grids transporting wind power from the north to the south, and solar power from the south to the north.
Skyrocketing grid costs
Because wind and solar are fully available only a fraction of the year (wind about 30%, sun about 10%), investing heavily in underutilized grids is not particularly economical. However, one thing is certain: investments of 600 to 700 billion euros in the high-voltage grid and another 200 to 300 billion euros for urban low-voltage grids will cause grid costs to skyrocket.
Annual interest and principal repayments for this grid transformation—shifting from central power plants to decentralized wind and solar systems—will reach 40 billion euros. This drives grid fees up from today’s levels to 13.5 ct/kWh for industry and 27 ct/kWh for households (EWI Study 2024). This is unaffordable for citizens, but worse still, such grid costs threaten the survival of German industry.
Even today, parts of industry can only remain in the country because the federal budget subsidizes grid fees down from 6.5 ct/kWh to 2.86 ct/kWh. The federal government is spending 6.5 billion euros on this in 2026. However, due to tight budgets, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has cut the 2027 subsidy by 1 billion euros, causing industrial grid fees to rise by 24% to 3.54 ct/kWh next year. It is already clear that future suffocating grid costs cannot be absorbed by the federal budget.
Industry threatened
Furthermore, additional pressure is looming from the EU. The EU is currently revising the Internal Electricity Market Regulation. Most EU states view Germany’s extremely expensive grid costs—stemming from its nuclear phase-out and total reliance on solar and wind—and the subsequent state subsidization for German industry very critically. Germany stands almost alone in Europe regarding these grid fee reliefs. Other EU member states are expected to penalize Germany’s go-it-alone approach during the upcoming revision, which could force industry to shoulder full grid fees—spelling the end for many businesses.
“Madness”
How well off Germany would be without the green energy transition! If the country still had 17 nuclear power plants ready to step in across the north and south when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine, this “madness” of power grid restructuring would be unnecessary.
Even if all nuclear power plants were brought back at their existing sites, the worst-case cost would be around 80 billion euros. This equals just two years of additional energy transition grid costs that will burden future generations—while providing 60 to 80 years of cheap electricity at generation costs of about 5 ct/kWh and saving 600 to 700 billion euros on the high-voltage grid.
