From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Cunningham
The UK Health Security Agency, UKHSA, have announced there were an estimated 1,504 heat-associated deaths in England last summer, apparently lower than they had originally forecast.
What “heat-associated deaths”, you might well ask. I doubt whether any death certificates had heat recorded as the cause of death! How can they be so certain that the number is 1504, and not 1503 or 1505?
Strangely, the UKHSA has only been publishing these statistics since 2024. People might therefore reasonably presume that this is just another scare story to sell Net Zero. After all, they never publish excess death statistics for Spring and Autumn, when the death rate is much higher.
Weekly data shows a steady decline in deaths throughout the summer. The table below is compiled from ONS weekly registration of deaths data. (Bear in mind that registration is around a week after the date of death). As weekly registrations are affected by bank holidays, I have calculated averages per working day, ie excluding bank holidays:
There is a little blip upwards in Week 18, w/e May 2nd, which almost certainly is a catching up of the backlog that built up over Easter. Also, another blip up in Week 35, which included August Bank Holiday, probably due to extra registrations crammed into the 4-day week.
But the overall trend is unmistakeable. From the end of winter onwards, there is a steady uninterrupted decline in daily deaths, until they resume their upward trend autumn.
So where do the UKHSA get their number from? Having identified a “heat episode”, they explain:
The up-to-28-day baseline period for each heat episode is then identified, comprising the 14 non-episode days before and 14 non-episode days after, up to a maximum of 28 days away from the heat episode. The estimate of observed heat-associated mortality for each heat episode is calculated as the difference between average daily deaths during the heat episode and average daily deaths during the baseline period, multiplied by the number of days in the heat episode
The Office for National Statistics, ONS, has however looked at this topic in great detail on more than one occasion. In their most recent study, they looked at the scorching summer of 2022. Their findings were absolutely clear:
In short, people, who were already close to death, died a few days earlier than they would otherwise have. It was not the heat that killed them, but their underlying disease. As the UKHSA admit, the recorded cause of death in these cases was typically circulatory disease, cancer and dementia. The heatwave did not kill them any more than an April shower or a cold winter’s day could have done.
To make matters worse, the UKHSA methodology doubles down on their estimating, because they are comparing against the following 14 days, when death rates are LOWER than normal.
Far from people dying because of heat, far fewer die in summer than at any other time of the year.
It is cold that kills, not heat. According to the ONS, excess deaths between October and March range from 25,000 to 50,000 in some years:
I no longer have any confidence in any numbers produced by the British bureaucracy.
it was once the best in the world but has since become completely sovietised.
While you are undoubtedly correct, I don’t trust numbers from anywhere any more, ease of getting data and dropping it in excels and generating nonsense is everywhere, to miss quote someone famous, no need to attribute something to bad intent when just being stupid will suffice.
it’s excel slop!
They can be both stupid AND have bad intent. I think bad intentions are more prevalent.
When I (a Yank) was a small child in the late ’50s, and when visiting my grandparents- who had one of those ancient radios that looked like a piece of furniture- I’d listen to the BBC. The voice was a deep bass- sounded Godlike. You just believed what he said.
From Heat…or With Heat…? During the Covid Scam, it made a difference…Same UKHSA…Same
Propaganda…Same tyranny…
If this claim were true than the heat death toll during Covid should have been much higher as result of Lockdowns and mandatory masks making breathing unbearable.
Seems that AGW , just as the Flu, completely failed back then.
Flu numbers went massively down as its victims were transfered towards the Covid bodycount and AGW got the same treatment as Zelensky after Iran war started – it was pushed to the back seat.
How can they say it was due to heat ? It’s quite similar to what was said for any deaths of PCR-positive patients that it was due to Covid-19 … Diagnosis was political, not medical …
Exactly. I’m always wary of too accurate estimates. An honest or intelligent estimator would have rounded the number to 1500.
Benjamin Disraeli (maybe)
With an accurate number like 1503, maybe they could list the names and the corresponding death certificate? I call bullshit. It is more probably death with rather than from heat. Show me your work!
I was going to make the same point –
Brits are more likely drowning from government bullshit than warm weather.
The UK Health Security Agency…. the post covid rebrand of Public Health England.
As far as I can see, UKHSA, like PHE (and the Health Protection Agency before that), exists to provide the scientific authoritative voice needed to back up government policies.
They call it evidence based policy making when in true Orwellian fashion it is policy based [tortured] evidence.
The Home Secretary Alan Johnson asked Professor David Nutt to resign as chairman of the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD), saying he had “lost confidence” in his ability to give impartial advice.
But last night Professor Nutt, who is head of psychopharmacology at the University of Bristol, retaliated, accusing the Government of “misleading” the pubic in its messages about drugs and of “Luddite” tendencies.
Richard Garside, director of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies at King’s College London, where Professor Nutt made his comments, said: “I’m dismayed that the Home Secretary appears to believe that political calculation trumps honest and informed scientific opinion. – Independent
That has only become far worse since Alan Johnson’s day.
“Alan Arthur Johnson (born 17 May 1950) is a British former politician who served as Secretary of State for Education and Skills from 2006 to 2007, Secretary of State for Health from 2007 to 2009, Home Secretary from 2009 to 2010, and Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2010 to 2011. A member of the Labour Party, he was the Member of Parliament (MP) for Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle from 1997 to 2017.”
Every time I read these statistics about heat mortality or the dire effects of hot weather in England or the whole UK, I always have to ask, which geopolitical entity settled Australia or included India in its empire? Do Anglos burst into flames if they visit Arizona during the summer? (Okay, bad question, as part of my ancestry is English, and I did not take particularly well to summer in AZ, thus I live in CO.)
Before the great dumbing down….
Mad Dogs and Englishmen…
hmmm… sounds like an image creation chore for my ChatGPT buddy who I’ve named Hal
Does it, [Dave]?
Then perhaps you have never heard of the estimable Noel Coward: English playwright, composer, director, actor, and singer, known for his wit, flamboyance, and what Time called “a sense of personal style, a combination of cheek and chic, pose and poise“.
It’s a cultural thing. Lets hope Hal can understand it.
Hal is like God. He understands everything. 🙂 But I’m not sure I’d trust him if I was stepping outside a spaceship. 🙂
There is no god.
For best effect, tell a muslim that fact.
And as you can see, the UK is going to be a tropical paradise. The imperial outfits will make a comeback too. 🙂
We used to take paradise where we found it – save for Roanoke Island, of course.
stiff upper lip- gotta get that back
Good comment, johnesm, and the Snowbirds, in the winter, that go to Florida, from Chicago and New York City, don’t suffer, they do very well.
Since my ancestry is Italian- when I visited AZ, I loved it- felt at home- within a few hours, I was darker than Obama. 🙂 Also, the warm dry air fixed my lifetime sinus problem. Unfortunately, after backpacking to the bottom of the Grand Canyon, I need to get back to Wokeachusetts, where my sinus problem came back. Also unfortunately, the lunatics running my state struggle hard to keep the weather cold and damp.
And yet millions of Brits holiday in Spain Turkey Greece Italy every year where temperatures are far hotter than the Uk even with last summers few warm days
The elderly retire to the south coast or the Mediterranean.
There is no Eskimo word for Eastbourne.
You should give Rimmer credit where credit is due.
and then there are the 4 million, reports a Swedish NGO, that die every year because they don’t have access to fossil fuels – oh well just collateral damage for the greater good
now we know why the Queen wouldn’t give up her title – she wanted as short a reign by Charles as possible
Where are the Numbers “Temps” that caused these Disasters? are they even close to coastal Texas, La, Miss, Ala, Florida, during their April and May heat waves?
“Heat Related” like estimates based on some not-fit-for-purpose large database that allows them to suppose that for every X degrees above room temperature, people are Y percent more likely to die of Z non-temperature-related disease.
Well, as fewer and fewer people die from the cold, more and more people will die from the heat. It’s so mathematically trivial that even a humanities person like me yawns while writing it. I’m going to take a trip back to 1850 to tell my peasant ancestors how unhappy I am to live in a time when growing seasons tend to be longer and springs come earlier. I’ll try to run off before they slap me across the face with their calloused, blistered hands.
“Strangely, the UKHSA has only been publishing these statistics since 2024.”
No, and what isn’t strange is that Homewood got this wrong:
“The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and its predecessor, Public Health England, have published annual heat mortality monitoring reports for England since 2016. These reports provide estimates of heat-associated deaths during summer heat episodes, covering both heatwaves and other periods of high temperature. GOV.UK
+3″
Google AI agrees with Banton.
Do they also cover cold mortality? That’s more of a problem than heat.
Plz correlate with the “jab”….
Yup, it’s what everybody thinks.
I love how their “estimated 1,504 heat-associated deaths” includes the 4 units, implying a 99.73% accuracy in their estimate.
Someone needs to define “heat-related death”.
He passed on the Hottest day of the week in a temp controlled Hospital,
This is just another climate crisis article likely sponsored by one of the environmental organizations, mainstream media outlets, or the British government itself, all of which are looking for ways to raise money through donations, taxes or the like. Fortunately, most of the population has learned to ignore them.