Essay by Eric Worrall
First published JoNova; When climate advocates say “Net Zero”, are they actually referring to how much cash green investors will have left when the last bubble bursts?
Solar Stocks Shaken By High Interest Rates And Supply Chain Issues
By ZeroHedge – Nov 03, 2023, 9:00 AM CDT
- SolarEdge’s revenue forecast falls significantly short of expectations, causing a 20% drop in its share value.
- Renewable energy companies are struggling with supply chain issues and the impact of high-interest rates, leading to reduced guidance and missed earnings.
- The abandonment of two major U.S. offshore wind projects by Orsted A/S indicates a larger trend of decarbonization targets being threatened by economic headwinds.
The renewable energy industry is in full collapse mode this week. First, Orsted A/S, the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer, abandoned two major US projects due to supply chain and interest rate impacts, and now solar stocks are being clubbed like a baby seal in US premarket trading on Thursday after solar equipment-makers SolarEdge and Sunrun reported dismal guidance amid waning demand.
Let’s start with solar equipment maker SolarEdge Technologies. The company said current quarter revenues are expected between $300 million to $350 million, far below analysts’ estimates of $718.9 million, as per Bloomberg Consensus data.
…
Read more: https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Solar-Stocks-Shaken-By-High-Interest-Rates-And-Supply-Chain-Issues.html
More bad news for solar (from JoNova);
What happened to solar stocks? Investors ‘pick up the pieces’ after a brutal earnings season
Published: Nov. 7, 2023 at 1:14 p.m. ET
By Claudia AssisEnphase’s stock loses 70% this year
Things were looking up for the U.S. solar-power industry. The Inflation Reduction Act, the climate legislation that passed in August 2022, boosted the savings of anyone looking to go solar, among its several clean-energy incentives.
A little over a year later, however, investors sentiment about solar, particularly residential solar, is at a trough, the IRA notwithstanding.
“After a painful earnings season, we look to pick up the pieces and move forward,” James West, a analyst with Evercore ISI, said in a note Tuesday.
…
Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-happened-to-solar-stocks-investors-pick-up-the-pieces-after-a-brutal-earnings-season-b58eceaa
JoNova notes Invesco’s green fund is down over 40% from its 52 week high. She also notes this news comes hot on the heals of crippling losses in the wind and EV markets.
This once again demonstrate’s Eric’s principle of green energy – green policies are self limiting. The ultimate backstop on political climate ambition is the catastrophic economic mess green policies cause.
The high interest rates which are crippling green energy and EV supply chains are largely due to energy price inflation, which is a direct consequence of green obsessed regulatory hostility towards fossil fuel. Green energy policies are directly driving the demise of the green energy industry.
Personally if I was invested in companies with exposure to this insanity, I’d be calling for the scalp of whichever intellectually challenged executive decided to gamble with my shareholder capital. This crash was inevitable and obvious, it was only the timing of the crash which was uncertain. But maybe that’s just me.
The Inflation
reductionescalation act is throwing money at renewables and they are still struggling. The US government once again turns billions into nothing.Yeah. Thankfully its not billions that are for nothing.
/sarc.
Well, those billions are enriching the friends and political allies of the leftist trash that voted for the IRA, so in that sense it is “something.” Oh, and the rest of us get extra inflation and higher energy prices out of the deal!
If owing a light plane is like having a hole in the sky that you throw money into, and owning a boat is like having a hole in the water that you throw money into; what exactly are ruinables comparable to!?
I see a Rube Goldberg like device that takes our taxes and places them in the pockets of only the most deserving of millionaires and billionaires! And don’t forget 10% for The Big Guy!
Maybe owning a wind farm is like throwing money into the wind. Orsted is learning the same lessons as Don Quixote, and got knocked off their high horse.
“… what exactly are ruinables comparable to!?”
Owning a horse. The fastest way to turn money into….
It was always a bubble…
Reality strikes. All the hype in the world can’t save the poor performance of solar and wind power. With economies tanking right and left they won’t be able to increase subsidies enough to capture more free money for the elites without calming the taxpayers who are caught between increasing energy costs, inflation, and false promises.
Ruinables! Huh!
What are they good for?
Absolutely nothing.
Say it again!
Filling land fills.
Ruinables were always about rent-seeking and subsidy mining. Energy production was merely a pretext.
I like ‘sustainable’ – like wind and solar, neither of which can sustain a continuous, reliable power output.
We always knew it would crash sooner or later, it was never sustainable.
IRONY!
But for the thinking individual, expected and understood from the start.
I mean, the idiots pushing wind and solar as “sustainable” energy sources, when all of the energy inputs into producing. Installing, maintaining, and decommissioning, windmills and solar panels COME FROM FOSSIL FUELS, and they ALSO have to be BACKED UP BY FOSSIL FUELS, are of the same ilk that thinks BIOMASS is “sustainable.”
While resolutely refusing to recognize that “biomass” burns much faster than it grows.
Biomass is great for using up waste combustible materials.
But growing biomass, just to burn it…… idiotic in the extreme.
Sort of like ethanol.
If only renewables were not so dependent on fossil fuels for their manufacture.
And dependent on fossil fuels for their backups when their output falls.
Heh, hadn’t read this far down yet. I’ll file it under “great minds think alike.” 😉
If only they weren’t dependent on fossil fuels to back them up when they fail to perform.
If only they weren’t so dependent on wind, sun and taxpayer subsidies!.
You see, this is how dumb the green dream is. It’s totally reliant on subsidies, and grants etc. Now those government hand-outs must be funded. So, at the same time, nutty green governments are destroying the FF industries that generate billions of dollars annually in tax receipts.
So, the wacko green left can destroy two things at once. Not only income from FF companies but also reliable energy, that affects ALL incomes from other industries and businesses, and pushes prices up, adding to inflation. You cannot make this stuff up its that absurd.
Stupid is as stupid does…
Live by the lie, die by the lie.
“… and now solar stocks are being clubbed like a baby seal …”
____________________________________________________
Short search is wishy washy whether that has stopped now or not. But if it has, then that’s good news for the seals and the bears. Like maybe that’s part of the reason the bears are doing well.
It’s pretty much stopped. Most countries have enacted seal protection laws/regulations which either impose drastic limits or outright bans on seal hunting and culling. Good news for bears, good news for the faster and more agile seals.
And if you think about it, it’s the seals that depend on the sea ice to have their pups. The bears depend on the seals not the sea ice. The less sea ice, the denser the concentration of the seals and easier pickings for the bears.
They didn’t think of ripping a U.K. council off?
Man bought private jet and Bugatti supercar after council gave him £655m of taxpayers’ money
Thurrock Council in Essex, borrowed £655 million to invest in Liam Kavanagh’s business, Rockfire Farm.
https://metro.co.uk/2023/08/01/thurrock-man-bought-luxury-goods-with-council-money-19226332/
You can make money out of solar….
And they are just going to let them ( and him)get away with this? Well I guess the foxes really are “guarding” the hen house. You would think this kinda abuse of “ investment” funds would warrant some sort of criminal or civil charges. Or maybe the system is so corrupt now including the judiciary/ or (I from the US) what do you call the justice dept in those provinces.
Better investment is the recycling of the junk which going to still be around long after the bubble has burst.
Japan had 10,000 tons of dead panels annually by 2020 and struggled to break even that load down, and the number in Japanese use alone is expected to increase to about 800,000 tons annually by the 2040s. Which is an estimated number before they made them compulsory in Tokyo from 2025 so that may well be a low estimate.
And there are currently well over 2 billion solar panels currently in operation globally. Now I’m bad at mathematics, and far too lazy to work it out, but…
Kerrrrching.
Trouble is there’s not much you can do to recycle the things. Even after a horrendously expensive (and toxic) process you’re left with about 3% of the basic materials and a pile of toxic junk.
I propose shipping them to James Hansen, Al Gore and Greta Thunbergs homes for starters – give them the task of cleaning up the mess.
“Net Zero”
Looking at definitions of “Net”, I can only conclude that the “Net” is the trap and the “Zero” is the bait.
I saw it the other way round – Net being the bait, that pie-in-the-sky promise that you can offset some of your sins of omission, then they have you trapped with the harsh reality of the ‘zero emissions’.
😎
People need “heat”, energy in some form to survive.
Burn wood to cook food? CO2 is let off.
Cook the food with a magnifying glass? The food lets off CO2.
And, of course, the reach “Net Zero” while “they” continue to fly around in private jets to the next COP, whose CO2 emissions’ need to be curtailed to reach “Net Zero”?
This just shows the private market cannot save the environment. Therefore, more government intervention.
It is naive to say that voters will not approve this. Voters don’t vote on this issue. They vote on hot button items like abortion and police reform and the various tribes in the USA vote solely on their narrow list of issues (more stuff for our group). So, the Democratic pols will win elections, and then mandate these subsidies. In Maryland, after the R governor was replaced by D’s (black male, Indian female) two state agencies held a meeting and decided between themselves to mandate California’s EV program. Seventeen states have done this. NO public discussion of any note. Was not an issue in the 2020 election. The D voters were voting their race and their abortion views and their hatred of Trump. But, they got the EV mandates, too. Good for them.
Investment syndicates will undertake some measures to appear virtuous…..but when it looks like it’s gonna really affect earnings…..
“This crash was inevitable and obvious
, …”
Indeed it was. Before the COP in Glagow, I had read that peak renewables in Europe was in 2019! It was during the time where Germany was bulldozing part of a wind farm over to expand a coal mine. When I checked a chart on renewables’ development it appeared that the “Peak” was an error, but revisiting it, I noted that the chart was cumulative investment! Elsewhere, I noted that in 2019 that 46GW of windpower had been decommissioned and not subtracted from capacity!
Like everything in climate and renewables, it is all sleight of hand. Look, this tells me that this sector actually believes that everything will work if you can find a way to doctor the numbers!
Oops, “The Peak” was in 2017. Also I meant to mention I dont have the links. The minions have buried the old inconvenient stuff with new new BS that pops up in profusion in swarches. They did this also with Green Policy-Caused destruction of the economy of Sri Lanka. The new articles blame government corruption.
Same chart, different day
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewable-share-energy?tab=chart&country=USA~IND~CHN~OWID_EU27~POL~OWID_AFR~AUS~OWID_WRL~ZAF
The amazing part is they think they can power the modern world with intermittent power production during the day and ZERO power production at night.
Winter is even worse as day light hours in decline and with much cloudiness thus useless.
It is a niche power producer nothing more.
Yeah, and don’t forget all that white stuff covering the panels during those few hours of daylight.
Eliminate theft from consumers without solar panels to all weather dependent generators and the business model for WDGs collapses.
The government organised theft was initiated as a temporary measure to get benefits of scale but those benefits are limited to the equipment production side which cannot be done without coal. So production has shifted to China and they have benefited from the increase in scale.
I guess there will be a lot of Chinese production of useless stuff abandoned once the west stops the lunacy of trying to run a modern economy with energy extracted from fickle weather.
Never underestimate the power of being able to print unlimited amounts of money and to dictate all sorts of laws and regulations to fund and enforce Leftist policies. The real battle hasn’t even started yet.
It’s hilarious when new solar farm developers claim ‘it will power 10,000 homes’
No, it absolutely feckin won’t!
If you built 10,000 new homes, off grid, connected solely to this farm, the unfortunate inhabitants wouldn’t enjoy a deal of electricity, it would be akin to living in South Africa with rationing and rolling black outs, all year, desperately worse in autumn/winter when the Sun doesn’t turn out much at all
Its just one big con
if it moves tax it, if it quits moving, subsidize it.
I miss Reagan.
But but Elon Musk sez you could power the whole USA with 100 miles by 100 miles of solar panels….need some batteries too…sez it’s feasible….Elon is God….what a genius….and ….and he just prevented WW3 by not allowing Ukraine to use his phone system to bomb Russia….what a guy….he’s everywhere….even putting implants in people’s heads and preparing to shoot them to Mars!
On the other hand, by far the largest producer of solar panels. which is the Chinese company, Jinko Solar, is doing very well in 2023.
Here are quotes for the third quarter, 2023:
(1) Quarterly shipments were 22,597 MW (21,384 MW for solar modules, and 1,213 MW for cells and wafers ), up 21.4% QoQ, and up 108.2% YoY.
(2) Total revenues were US$4.36 bn, up 3.7% QoQ and up 63.1% YoY.
(3) Net income was US$181.4 mn, up 140.7% YoY
https://ir.jinkosolar.com/static-files/69711f44-8f35-4c2b-89b3-5518e0e2114c
A major problem with AGW alarmists is that they tend to cherry-pick research and news that confirm their alarmist views, whilst ignoring, and even blocking contradictory evidence, regardless of how sound such contradictory evidence may be.
I hope you skeptics are not falling into the same trap. (wink)
Never trust any numbers or goods out of China (wink). It is one of the most messed up countries in the world.
. . . except for the fact that it excels in world-wide industrial and military espionage and theft of intellectual properties, and in propagandizing people outside of its borders via companies and social media such a TikTok.
I also understand Red China (aka CCP) is pretty proficient in funding international terrorists and oppressive countries such as Russia, North Korea, certain African nations and certain Middle East countries . . . all those who want to prevent the global spread of democracy.
Solar system prices per installed MW of panels are up 40% in Europe and the US
The electricity production of such systems likely would also be 40% more per kWh
No cherry picking involved
Just historic market data
Mr. Vincent: The problem with AGW alarmists like yourself is that you are alarmed over nothing while believing numbers reported by Chinese Communist Party operations. We skeptics are able to avoid traps by accurately perceiving reality, how do you avoid them?
Except I wouldn’t want to buy panels made by Junko.
Probably last 5 years then spontaneously combust your roof
There is no business model that works. Like electric companies trying to stop people from using its product, a reverse roll model that ultimately will destroy the grid. Rather it is an investment model. It is set up so the Founders gain a first profit, the professionals gain a second after the IPO and the general public buoyed by relentless optimism by the professional class (the brokers, Blackstone, Vanguard, State Street, Goldman Sachs, City). Once the public buys in, the Founders leave, the professionals leave, and a few founder faces remain on board to handle the bankruptcy……with hundreds of millions of public and government salary in their pockets.
There was no product. Is no product. Never was to be a product. Green investments are nothing but blue sky scams.
And the con game is still not quite played out yet. I got a call from an ex employee that went to Southern cali awhile back , he says there are still many corporate industrial warehouse solar roof top contracts going forward. Probably deals that were already signed an let. But he also said residential has been in free fall for awhile out there. Middle class rate payers realized too they were going to get totally screwed.
California roof top solar purchased prior to August 15, 2023, is credited $0.32/kwh for deliveries to the grid (and grandfathered), after that date: $0.08/kwh. Even California knows the difference between grossly incredible off the chart stupidity and simple stupidity. Yes, installs are down. The State is now subsidizing battery storage for solar; perhaps, to sucker in “grandfathered” solar owners. No thanks.
“Enphase’s stock loses 70% this year” – Why only 70%.
“Invesco’s green fund is down over 40%” – Why only 40%
Why are these valuations not in the negatives given the total lack of value these “green”. “renewable” energy systems have in the real world. It’s great to see the market come to its sense about this nonsense but it could be a bit more definitive about the waste these energy strategies represent. I guess it is still possible to make a buck on snake oil.
The Democrats are using the FEDERAL Government to spend, spend, spend, on their useless, ineffective, inflation-increasing, wind/solar/battery/EV programs, using a grossly overdrawn credit card.
The interest on the $34 TRILLION US national debt has become 1.0 TRILLION in 2023, and will be going up, as more of the debt gets refinanced at higher rates.
The abyss will be deep
This obviously cannot go on.
The Democrats have a band-aid solution for that.
Hire 80,000 IRS agents and audit all Republican households reporting more than $200,000, using AI programs.
US/UK 66,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-offshore-wind-systems-by-2030-a-total-fantasy
EXCERPT
Wind/Solar Counteracting/Balancing Costs
Increased variable/intermittent wind and solar on the grid requires a fleet of quick-reacting, counteracting/balancing power plants, usually combined-cycle, gas-turbine plants, CCGTs, and hydro plants, with adequate nearby fuel supply to cover all circumstances, fully staffed, kept in good working order, ready to perform service, on a less than minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365, as demanded by the independent grid operator, such as ISO-NE, especially during:
Days with variable cloudiness
Days with panels covered with snow and ice
Days with foggy conditions
All days, from late afternoon/early evening to mid-morning the next day, when solar is minimal or zero.
All days, during peak demand hours of late afternoon/early evening, when wind and solar usually are minimal
Simultaneous wind/solar lulls, when wind/solar output is minimal for up to 5 to 7 days, sometimes followed by another multi-day wind/solar lull. See URLs
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/analysis-of-a-6-day-lull-of-wind-and-solar-during-summer-in-new
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-plus-solar-plus-storage-in-new-england
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-lulls-energy-storage-in-germany
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/playing-russian-roulette-with-reliable-electricity-service-to-new
Without the fleet of counteracting/balancing plants, wind/solar power could not be fed into the grid, i.e., wind/solar power cannot function on its own.
The more wind/solar fed to the grid, the greater the fleet capacity, MW, in counteracting/balancing mode.
The counteracting/balancing costs are almost entirely due to wind/solar output variations and intermittencies.
The fleet has to operate far from its more economical mode.
The fleet experiences:
More up/down production at lesser efficiencies; more Btu, more CO2, more cost/kWh
More wear-and-tear, due to up/down production and more starts/stops; more Btu, more CO2, more cost/kWh
Increased wind requires:
A larger plant capacity in hot, synchronous (3,600 rpm), standby mode, to immediately provide power, if wind/solar generation suddenly decreases, or any other power system outage occurs.
A larger plant capacity in cold standby mode, to provide power after a plant’s start-up period.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reductions-due-to-wind-energy-less-than-claimed
The wind/solar/battery bubble is in meltdown mode. This is not a surprise, because the US-EIA makes LCOE “evaluations” of wind and solar, which purposely exclude major LCOE items, regarding:
– Onshore grid expansion/reinforcement and very expensive battery system storage
– A fleet of quick-reacting power plants for counteracting/balancing the variable output of wind/solar
– Additional power plants for making up the electricity shortfall during low wind/solar conditions
– Output curtailments during high wind/solar conditions, i.e., paying owners not to produce what they could have produced
Such EIA deceptions reinforced the national delusion wind and solar are competitive with fossil fuels, which is far from reality.
Wind and solar would not exist without at least 50% subsidies, plus their output could not be fed into the grid, without the above four freebies. The costs are paid by taxpayers, ratepayers, and added to government debts.
Nut-Zero –
It-Will-Never-Happen
The three fundamentals as we predicted here years ago are right now in the process of killing the grid-scale renewable fantasy. A fantasy driven by a lie about climate.
perfect irony. The IRA caused much of the inflation that is killing the renewables it was meant to save.
Was meant as a response to Thomas Finegan.
The economic model for renewables is to make huge capital investments up front in hopes of gathering enough energy to pay off the loans. Thanks to Bidenomics, soaring interest rates are collapsing that strategy.
The Green Bubble about to burst? Pity.
The real cost to taxpayers of the above-mentioned Inflation Reduction Act of August 2022: $1.2 trillion
Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-reduction-act-subsidies-cost-goldman-sachs-report-5623cd29
“So far, the national debt has grown by over $5.39 trillion since Biden took office in 2021.”
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/us-debt-by-president-dollar-and-percentage-7371225
When Biden took office, the national debt was $28.3 trillion, so under his watch he and his complicit Democratic Party have increased the national debt by a whopping 19% in just shy of 3 years!
There should be rioting in the streets over this, the real cause of inflation in the US, but the sheeple just look the other way . . . just like financial “reporter” Claudia Assis’ deflection on the real reason solar energy stocks have nosedived.
“. . . boosted the savings of anyone looking to go solar . . .” What a laugher!
There are a lot of people in VT who have solar panels on their roof. We have not had 2-3 sunny days in a row in like 3 months. Not to mention – we are the 2nd cloudiest state in the nation.
What a waste!!!
But you do get the benefit of virtue signaling, don’t you?
I was going to say that – they are still “better” than me because I don’t have solar panels!!
I need a bank that will lend my money to any legal profitable entity that can pay it back with market interest but I’m fast running out of options-
‘Are these people insane?’: Greens suggest ‘bank tax’ after NAB profit posting (msn.com)
Give me such a bank that proudly advertises that core value and sticks to it and I’m sure it will be the bank with the majority of money to lend.