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So, the current forecast for the power of the storm is expected to top out at category 3 or is there better forecasting with different information?
millibars have stopped dropping at around 952, winds are compressing the main body from the west and the outbound streaming weather is screaming up the coast being slowly driven by a front across the entire continent. Florida has been under cloud cover for more than 24 hours now and there will be NO energy input from the land, likely shortly after nightfall the flora will start dragging Ian into a wobble with cooler/cold input air.
I doubt Ian’s gonna be more than base 2 and dropping when the eye hits land. Irma didn’t like Florida’s west coast either.
in any way it’s too many inputs for the system to predict it reliably so they’re using a “rubber stamp play list” prediction system
Wow, you seem well informed on this. Hope your not in the target area. Thanks!
I’m literally the target path. My Southern Live Oak shrugged off Irma.
Live oaks are amazingly tough trees
The press is now calling this a Cat5 storm. None of the wind monitors I can find indicate 155MPH wind speeds at ground level. Where are they measuring these?
I believe NOAA and NHC use satellite estimates.
I think they estimate pressure which allows them to estimate wind speeds.
One delusion supports another delusion.
It is also why they name small low pressure depressions.
This morning NOAA forecasted a low end Cat 4 landfall. The idea it is Cat5 is crazy talk.
Yes. It would be massive destruction already if Cat 5 on landfall
I don’t know who you are listening to. The stations that I’ve been monitoring have been calling it a strong Cat 4 storm. A few have mentioned that it is close to being a 5 and MIGHT become a 5.
Cross grain. That is why the main structural elements, including the knee braces, of the USS Constitution were made of that wood. The bulky pieces cut from huge trees so the grain did not run along the long axis of each structural member.
Any idea whether Ian will cross over to the Atlantic? That easterly wind pattern above it seems pretty strong. I don’t understand why it wouldn’t take the path of least resistance and run parallel to it instead of forcing its way north into it.
Current thought at NHC is that it will enter the Atlantic as a TS around Jacksonville and hug the east coast up to the Carolinas.
If it hugs the coast, there won’t be much chance for it to strengthen.
Joe Bastardi pointed out that NHC had the hurricane’s pressure dropping while over Cuba.
a) Currently Ian has dry air all along it’s Western side, not conducive to hurricane strengthening.
b) Hurricane Ian will encounter Florida land just as it leaves Cuba’s influence. Also, not conducive to hurricane strengthening.
c) Hurricane Ian’s eye is huge, lopsided and unbalanced. Not conducive to hurricane strengthening.
I agree with your assessment Prjindigo!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdtmjeZXwAAIX6-?format=jpg&name=large
Gee all those things you cite as “not conducive to strengthening” – but Ian most definitely strengthened by a huge helluva lot – current sustained windspeeds at 155-160 mph (higher at altitude – the 155 mph represents estimated wind speed at sea level, as measured by sensors dropped from hurricane hunter aircraft as it passed from eye over the eyewall) and gusts over 190 mph. Still hasn’t contacted land yet. The practical difference between a Cat 4 at 155 and a Cat 5 at 157 is nil, whether the storm reaches Cat 5 or not.
Where (what altitude) are those sustained wind speeds measured? I find no ground level measurements exceeding 107-116 MPH
Not measured.
I believe the wind estimates are for 10 meters, but are estimated from satellite measurements. Sure sounds like they use a climate model algorithm for estimating storms.
At whatever altitude the aircraft flies, which was not reported by NHC. The instruments are dropped and report measurements all the way down. The aircraft isn’t the point of measurement.
Local Doppler radar here in Fort Myers reported 168 mph sustained in the east quadrant of the eyewall within the last 30 seconds. Higher speeds were measured by the hurricane hunter aircraft in the northwest quadrant.
Eye appears to be heading right over my home in the next 2-3 hours.
The hurricane hunters usually fly no lower than 10,000 ft. so between about a third to half the height of the storm.
Hurricane hunters usually fly at about 10,000 ft. and the highest wind speed registered at that altitude was about 168 mph yesterday. Todays highest speed at altitude was 155mph and is expected to drop rapidly as soon as it makes landfall. I have no idea what those speeds translate to at ground level though – all the data I’ve seen has been gathered at an altitude of about 10,000 ft.
Nope!
Impossible for a hurricane to reach Cat 5 when it’s weather system is severely impacted by land and poor atmosphere (dry air) surroundings.
NOAA and NHC are hyping the storm into unbelievability.
Ian is a small powerful storm. Category 3 is no joke and very dangerous. It’s eyewall winds are tornadic in strength.
NHC and NOAA should be satisfied with reporting storm systems accurately.
Reality says otherwise. Local Doppler radar just reported 168 mph sustained in the east quadrant which is now within 20 miles of the Gulf shore at Sanibel.
This is a Cat 5 storm, and I’m living in it right now, so don’t bullshit me by saying it can’t be. It is.
you have zero credibility.
It doesn’t matter what you say.
you have zero credibility.
you have zero credibility.
If you’re claiming Cat 5, you’re saying that basically there will be no structures or trees standing after it passes. That’s what it means, total devastation. Is this a hill you want to die on?
If you’re “living in it right now” then you are obviously one of “Those Fools” who don’t leave when their life is threatened by a “Cat 5 storm”. Or the storm truly is not a Cat 5 as reported.
So, is it less than a Cat 5…or…are you a fool?
Your place would be matchwood at Cat 5 . yet here you are
Except you’re not. The National Hurricane Centred have said it’s a CAT 4 when it hit landfall. You’re the bullshitter Duane
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/hurricane-ian-live-updates-rcna49729
I’ve been watching The Weather Channel’s reporting since the start. No land station in the path of the eye has reported sustained winds of over 65mph which is not even technically a hurricane. Highest gust I saw reported was 126 with most being around 100-110. Yet their graphic show winds of 155, high Category 4. I wouldn’t want to be in it, but this is just hype and scare tactics.
Science seems to be there , but its hyped
https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/guide-understanding-satellite-images-of-hurricanes
It seems a Cat 5 would have a well defined eye.
And the colours in the images are counter intuitive , as red is cooler and blue is warmest .
But ignored when its a scary narrative told in news broadcast
THe strength of the hurricane is determined by the speed of winds in the eyewall. None of the stations that you are seeing are located in the eyewall.
We had a Cat 5 cyclone in Australia that quickly dropped to Cat 2 after landfall – before it got past the beach. No actual wind measurements above Cat 2.
So Cat5 is basically used to gen up ratings and get residents moving. Have Floridians adapted with better information inputs in recent years?
Data are data. Ignoring the data is exactly what you guys accuse the warmunists of doing.
My comment was based on Bastardi, not some unrelated things you refer to as “what you guys accuse”.
And the data says it’s a cat 4.
“in any way it’s too many inputs for the system to predict it reliably so they’re using a “rubber stamp play list” prediction system”
Ah, so they are using the same type of forecasting tools that they use for their global warming models!
According to Levi Cowen it looked like Ian would be going through an eye wall replacement cycle tonight. From what I have seen before pressures usually remain static or increase a bit as the core of the cyclone expands during such a transition. But that does not mean the pressure will not drop more when the cycle is complete. It is wait and see.
Eye pressure was down to 937 mb as of 8 am, direct measurement. Of course once it landfalls the winds will decrease, but as of right now, no signs of any slowing and in fact it has accelerated to 155 mph sustained winds at sea level via direct measurement by hurricane hunter aircraft flying through and over the eyewall as of 8 am, when just around 60 miles from landfall, moving at only 10 mph. It may strengthen more, or it may weaken, or it may wobble some too. Landfall expected by early to mid afternoon unless it slows more.
What kimd of ignorant asshole down votes a factual incontrovertible statement of measured data? Only koolaid drinkers and cranks, that’s who.
SMH
Duane, you are totally losing it!
After reading your comments up to this time I thought I would help you out. I gave you a big down vote. While I am honorary bonafide and recognized ASSHOLE you will never acquire the merits for its membership.
The kind of ignorant asshole that goes and does their own research rather than listening to you and comes up with slightly different ‘factual’ ‘incontrovertable’ statement of measured data from the US National Hurricane Center, that’s who.
Are you gonna say sorry to Duane?
I read that as 10,000 ft. I’ll keep my head at about 6’0″ so it doesn’t blow my hat off.
eyesonu said: “I read that as 10,000 ft. I’ll keep my head at about 6’0″ so it doesn’t blow my hat off.”
That’s for the 155 kts figure. The 135 kts figure is a surface measurement and is actually rounded down from the NOAA2 and AF301 reported value of 137 kts.
Nope. As I made perfectly clear, these readings are by Hurricane Hunter aircraft at altitude, typically 10,000 ft. not at ground level which would be typically far less. Duane was citing them as being at ground level, which is impossible under the present circumstances. If you and Duane had bothered to read up on what the hurricane hunter’s WP-3D Orion’s have been doing then you’d both have come to the same conclusion.
No need to appoligize you just showed what everyone was pointing out to him what you are quoting is an extrapolation not a direct measurement try again.
Richard Page said: “Nope. As I made perfectly clear, these readings are by Hurricane Hunter aircraft at altitude, typically 10,000 ft. not at ground level which would be typically far less.”
PaulD said: “No need to appoligize you just showed what everyone was pointing out to him what you are quoting is an extrapolation not a direct measurement try again.”
Patenly False. SFMR is a measurement at the surface. NOAA2 and AF301 both measured 137 kts at the surface. That’s not flight level winds. That is surface winds. The flight level winds were 155 kts which is consistent with the vertical profile of eye wall winds in strong hurricanes.
No one needs to say sorry to Duane. It was a CAT 4 when it made landfall.
Andrew Wilkins said: “It was a CAT 4 when it made landfall.”
Thank You! Now let’s see if we can work together to convince the rest of the WUWT audience of that.
Can you convince Duane that it wasn’t a CAT 5? Now you admit it was a CAT 4 you might be able to get Duane to eat humble pie.
Andrew Wilkins said: “Can you convince Duane that it wasn’t a CAT 5?”
Probably not. I’m not sure it wasn’t a category 5 at peak intensity myself. Both NOAA2 and AF301 measured 137 kts (158 mph) winds at the surface in the western eye wall prior to landfall. That’s technically a category 5 and is consistent with the WSR-88D measurements of 175+ kts at 10,000 ft during that time. And although it is unlikely I cannot eliminate the possibility that the NHC will upgrade the intensity as part of their full assessment.
BTW…there’s a good chance the NHC will downgrade the official landfall intensity. AF307 only measured 121 kts (140 mph) at the surface during landfall.
I’m pretty sure it was upgrey’d to a cat 29 with sustained winds measured at 4,200 miles per second.
Al Gore, Duane, and Griff told me it was a CAT 1 000 000
thought cat 4 uprooted most trees and blew out most windows. press photos of Naples show flooding from storm surge, but not that much wind damage. Am i missing or misunderstanding something
No, you pretty much got it.
Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage, with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
For Category 5:
The highest hurricane category – A large percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Abstracted from the narrative descriptions of the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Hurricane categories are based on wind speeds; not damage. FWIW though there are plenty of uprooted trees and blown out windows. That’s the least of the damage though. Just look at the pictures this morning. It is going to rank among the most costly hurricanes in US history.
It’ll be one of the most costly because as time has gone by over the years the local human population and its accompanying infrastructure has ballooned. This is nothing to do with climate change.
Oh, and that growing population has been supported by marvellous fossil fuel products.
Who said anything about climate change? I’m only trying to debunk the claims that Ian wasn’t a major hurricane, or a hurricane at all, and that the damages are limited to a few uprooted trees and blown out windows.
Rubbish – you’re doing your usual thing of using totally normal weather events as evidence of dangerous CAGW. Stop trying to wheedle out of it.
I think you have me confused with someone else. I’ve not discussed climate change at all in this article.
So CAGW has nothing to do with this storm. Yes?
No. And if you’ve tracked any of my posts on WUWT you know I don’t advocate for or defend CAGW or other kinds of doom-and-gloom civilization ending alarmist hype.
Yeah, right…..
No, it’s about damage. The wind speeds are correlated to the damage, not the other way around.
Nope. The Saffir-Simpson scale is based on wind speed; not damage. Don’t confuse the Saffir-Simpson scale which is based on wind speed with the Enchance Fujita scale which is based damage. The former is for hurricanes. The later is for tornadoes.
Right now (1:50 PM PDT), it looks like it is right on top of Key West.
No it was Caye East.
Whoops, correction, it’s the back end only above key West, seems to be hitting the shore up and down as far as Tampa Bay
At this time earth.nullschool is showing the eye here:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-80.67,23.44,4184/loc=-83.428,23.929
what’s going on with the other swirly at 14 N; 35 W
Interestingly earth.nullschool also shows sustained surface wind speeds of 77MPH
Doesn’t surprise me, ground speed and air speed (I mean at higher altitude – 3,000 ft. and up) are likely to be very different. If the ground speed has slowed to 77mph, I wonder by how much the air speed has slowed.
Frozen-in-time at 5:27 PM Tuesday (for historical purposes) Level II RADAR image from Key West WSR-88D:
Hurricane Ian? Does it have a nasal whine and it’s a bit up itself?
Locking in an early vis sat image of the Gulf and Ian too at 6:17PM EDT Tuesday:
Check out Ventusky.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=5.2;-76.0;3&l=wind-10m
That makes it currently barely a Cat1
Utter bullshit. Cat 4 with sustained 155 mph winds at sea level as directly measured by sensors dropped from the hurricane hunter aircraft this morning as it passed over the eyewall. Landfall not projected until the afternoon so further strengthening is possible.
Then NOT at the surface where winds affect human infrastructure but up in the air where it has little effect
Wow you are an ignorant son of a bitch. At the surface doofus!
Not at the surface – NHC states that the data is taken at altitude, that being around 10,000 ft. which is the altitude most hurricane hunter aircraft fly through them. Did you not bother to read the NHC reports from the hurricane hunters?
Nice language SFB…
Still not finding any direct surface measurements (buoys or WX stations) above 121knots
As of 5 minutes ago, cat 5 with 160+ sustained wind speed in the eastern eyewall by local Doppler radar.
That’s enough to blow your hat off and twist your panties if you were in a balloon at 10,000 ft. Need to stay closer to the ground!
CAT 4 when it made landfall.
Goes East Sandwich RGB animation is the best, near-real time visualization I have found for these Wx events. It’s about on a 20 minute refresh delay (time to the next satellite image) though, so the satellite views are not as current as the Nexrad radar view which is about 5-7 minute delay.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=Sandwich&length=24
attached is the latest RGB Sandwich shot from 18:51 EDT.
I dunno … I’m kinda old-school and prefer the unadulterated visible image, preferring to see the shadows cast by towering Cumulus on sat images …
I cut my teeth on weather watching an old-school wx forecaster named Harald Taft (who was trained in wx during WW2) who worked at KXAS CH 5 in the DFW (Dallas-Ft. Worth) TeeVee market. When sat images first became available to broadcasters he made sure to point out those kinds of ‘small’ details that would show up on that imagery at that time.
Yeah, but visible sat image don’t work at night. In the multiwave length IR band RGB Sandwich view it is also easy to see the sunlit terminator line move across as the visible image of the composite disappears.
re: “Yeah, but visible sat image don’t work at night.”
SMH. Of course not. Reductio ad absurdum (NOTE I did say I “prefer the unadulterated visible image”.) I’ll also point out the other various wavelengths that allow such things as WV (water vapor) to be observed at various heights as well, besides the usual longwave IR.
A comprehensive list of products using different wavelengths (some subtractive, others additive) can be seen and selected here for presentation: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/
Well, Ian is NOT good. We live in Fort Lauderdale on the northern ocean beach.
For the first time ever, we just got a second TV official tornado warning based on Doppler radar ‘hooks’. Not ever during past biggest Irma. And Ian is still SW off Key West, hundreds of miles to our south east. These suspected tornados are in the outermost ‘comma’ rain band to the NE of Ian.
OTH, we have had heavy bands of wind and rain from the extreme outer NE bands since before this morning at dawn. My shoes are soaked from walking the dog under the wind buffeted umbrella in the dog walk sheltered from the wind. Heck, so am I.And we have lightning just off the coast now.
OK. The winds subsided, but the rain just increased massively. Pouring buckets.
Stay safe, Rud!
What’s it like now? I am in Fernandina Beach and the wind is maybe 25 with gusts into the 30’s. Rain is not expected until this afternoon. Waiting and watching to see how it wobbles – and hopefully weakens.
It wont last.
Rud
stay safe
Do stay safe out there.
As for the intensification that Ian underwent about 24 hours ago, it can be see that this intensification precisely correlated with a minor to moderate Geomagnetic storm conditions that started and ran for about 8-12 hours then. Currently as I write this, the station K-index values and the estimated Kp values are coming back down now and with them Ian has stabilized as a Cat 3 with central presssure of ~950mb (or so) since about 0800 GMT.
If K-index values continue to fall,Ian will not strengthen further. If they rise again, then Ian will strengthen again. The Kp geomagnetic conditions (measured at terrestrial ground stations) are driven by changes in the solar wind, which itself NASA/NOAA measures at the L1 orbit point (1 million miles from Earth) by the DSCVR satellite sensors. These Solar Wind conditions changes are best seen in the Solar Wind speed increases and Bz GSM (in nanoTeslas) changes.
Compare this shot of Ian’s intensification from about 24 hours ago (attached as an image from the WeatherUnderground site) to the NOAA Real Time Solar Wind speeds and Bt/Bz changes at this URL:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
Can you cite or explain the ‘first principles’ in physics to show how a Geomagnetic storm would affect a meteorological condition or storm?
I do not pretend to know the physical linkage or mechanistic explanation, which could be several. I have several hypotheses. But the correlation going back to 1950 (the beginning of the Hurdat2 data) is strong, R^2 > 0.8, p < 0.005. The correlation begins to break down when ENSO ONI > +0.5 (El Nino) and is fully gone at values of ONI > +0.7. So ENSO has to be taken into account to see this effect on Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone RI’s. Factoring in ENSO state is the key parsing out this correlation.
For those new here to WUWT: ONI is the 3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW) used to gauge El Nino or La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, patterns that affect global weather patterns.
The correlation of geomagnetic Kp (Kp is the 3 hour interval planetary K composite of individual stations’ 3 hour K indices, giving 8 x K index value sets in a 24 hour GMT day) to Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones is strongest when ONI between -0.5 < ONI < +0.5 (ENSO neutral). ENSO La Nina conditions seem to make the correlation a wee bit stronger (like now), but at ONI < -1.0 the correlation begins to break down again, it seems because the Atlantic Hurricane strengthening becomes much more sensitive to geomagnetic perturbations, that effect becomes “noisy” (high gain). ENSO thus seems like the rheostat affecting the gain on how well tropical cyclonic strengthening happens during geomagnetic storms, but only in the Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone records.
Why not other global regions for TC (Pacific) development/RI?
One explanation for that may lie in the structure of geomagnetic field strengths (x, y, and z) that are globally unique in the Atlantic Basin/western NH.
The Main Field East component is of most note here:
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/WMM/data/WMM2020/WMM2020_Y_BoZ_MILL.pdf
With negative Y component values very prominent across the Atlantic Basin as compared to the Pacific basin tropical cyclone areas.
It could also lie in a charged particle cloud seeding down through the ionosphere through the stratosphere mechanism combined with that Atlantic Basin z direction magnetic field strength. It could be a number non-mutally exclusive physical phenomenon at combine to dampen or amplify the TC’s strengthening mechanisms to geomagnetic perturbations.
To repeat, I do not know the mechanism. But the correlation is there.
_Jim,
Also here’s a paper here by physicist on some of these cyclone magnetics.
Key point is that the water molecule is a polar molecule. Bending a stream of water with a static electric field is the common school science trick of this phenomenon.
PHENOMENOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF FORCES IN HURRICANE DYNAMICS, by
Robert A. Dickerson, PhD
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/107571.pdf
The key part of this paper by Dickerson begins at Section 6., Electromagnetic Effects
My uncle in St Pete said the rotating electromagnetic component of a hurricane was attracted to aluminum shell mobile homes by generating and EMF in the siding and that is why hurricanes always hit mobile home parks.
I thought it was tornadoes that targeted trailer parks?
They both generate a lot of electricity so both for sure.
If you are old enough to remember …
https://www.straightdope.com/21341329/how-to-detect-tornados-using-your-tv
I have some good Hurricane info here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89131/#89239
OJ market reaction to the hurricane threat:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89232/
During hurricane season I always think of the 1622 September 5 wreck of the Atocha being torn to pieces on a reef. They were getting ready to work there way through the Florida straits. Tacking against the prevailing head winds when conditions deteriorated rapidly. Then another storm hit the few survivors out there on Oct 5
Thanks for sharing that John. I looked it up for links about the wreck and it was very fascinating and interesting reading. It must’ve been horrific for mariners in those days to sail without any warnings of impending storms such as what hit that fleet.
Just an opinion: Mariners “in those days” likely had some “warning” due to their experience on the waters, but were unable to change direction easily or quickly enough to locate any safe haven. Ain’t fossil fuels a wonderful thing?
At the current time, the NWS is calling Ian a category 3 hurricane. I can find no actual measurements on their website of sustained wind speeds. Category 3 would mean sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph. Windy.com has a real time map which shows current wind speed maximum of 62 knots (71 mph) which would make it a category 1 storm. What gives? The closest thing I can find at NWS is the wind history map which has a very small hurricane force windspeed area for a supposed category 3 storm.
Directly measured (by hurricane hunter aircraft dropping sensors) sustained windspeeds of 155 mph (sea level) to 160 mph at altitude, gusts to 190 mph as of 8 am EDT. Landfall not projected until the afternoon due to the slow forward speed of the storm at around 10 mph. Further strengthening possible.
CAT4 when it made landfall. Obviously the strengthening was a bit pathetic.
North of Tampa is the largest electrical generation complex in Florida. It’s right on the coast at Crystal River and has 4 operating fossil fueled units. Unit #3 was nuclear and shut down several years ago. The old coal fired units have been being converted to NG.
Over 20 years ago I was the GM of a small company that did work on the coal fuel systems and ash handling systems of coal fired plants. I and my crew would spend a couple weeks during the annual maintenance shutdowns doing our work. This went on for several years running.
Crystal River is different from most power stations because it draws its water directly from the gulf. The salt water goes through condensers to make it freshwater suitable for running the turbines.
We were working on Unit #2 the year they had their “100 year storm” along that section of the gulf coast. That very large unit alone supplied all of the electrical power for Disney world plus some for Orlando at that time. Though none of the units were damaged directly they still went offline because the salt spray continually kicked out the main breakers at the transformer stations.
If Ian happens to go north and takes that complex off line a huge portion of the grid of N. Florida would probably go down.
The front over the Gulf of Mexico has stopped and will not pull the hurricane Ian eastward.
The hurricane is moving north along 83oW.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=conus×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
The threat of flooding in lower-lying areas exists throughout Florida.
Is the eye getting smaller due to all the moisture being thrown off in that large stream to the right?
I wouldn’t count on it.
https://www.accuweather.com/pl/us/tampa/33602/weather-radar/347937
Watch out! Here come Duane again…
No – the eye is actually getting larger with a near perfectly formed eyewall, approx. 70 miles diameter with hurricane force winds extending to about 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds out to about 140 miles from the center
Ian is unusually large for such an intense hurricane, far larger than the last landfalling hurricane to make a direct hit in Charlotte Co. in 2004.
Current track as of 8 am EDT was north northeast, projected track to move NE across the Florida peninsula after landfall in Charlotte Co, eventually to re-emerge into the Atlantic somewhere near Jacksonville as a low pressure system, and possible re-strengthening thereafte. The eye has been jogging between due north and northeast since it left Cuba.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=namer×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
The lies continue…. It is 7:35 Wednesday Sept 28/22. The NHC just issued their latest “estimate” of the power of Hurricane Ian as follows:
“BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
…RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING IAN FORECAST TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT…1100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data near latitude 25.9 North,
longitude 82.8 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near
9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward
speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the north on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to
approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning
area this morning, and move onshore later today. The center of Ian
is forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday
morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make
landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.”
Now have a look at the radar and actual weather station wind reports, which are supposedly located within the hurricane force windfield at this time:
You will see that as the eyewall is within 30-40 miles of the coastal area of Florida, the actual weather station wind speeds are an order of magnitude lower than the NHC is stating. Also notice they are ESTIMATING the wind speed by extrapolating dropsonde data with central pressure vs wind speed tables, vs their best guess. But both radar and actual ground wind stations are showing their typical lies.
They have been doing this for at least 5 years – overblowing a storm’s category by 1-3 units to fulfill their climate catastrophe narrative. I live in S Florida and thus monitor all the real time info I can get having been through 4 hurricanes, 3 of which the eye passed over my location.
It’s simple physics – the eye has been expanding in diameter for the past 12-15 hours, and when a spinning object expands the mass distribution, it must slow down to conserve angular momentum. Just like a figure skater spinning fast with arms tight to chest, then flinging arms out and they slow down the spin rate dramatically.
Do not get me wrong, it is still a massive storm which has already spawned 2 dozen tornadoes even on the East Coast, one touching down about 2 miles from here last night*. But it is not a cat 4 monster as they are making believe!
(*barely an F0 on the Fujita scale – a few trees uprooted, a few tinfoil/plastic cars flipped and some broken windows)
No doubt it will do some damage when landfall occurs, but the reality is far from what the official narrative is making it out to be!
Really, just STFU you have no freaking idea what you are blabbing on an on about. There is no lying by NHC. The windspeeds reported were directly measured by instruments dropped from the hurricane hunter aircraft passing across the eye and then across the eyewall, 155 mph sustained at sea level, 160 mph sustained at altitude, gusts to 190 mph.
You really should take your own advice! You are projecting your own foibles onto others.
D Boss states facts from multiple physical sensors, not estimates derived from estimates.
Facts obliviate government crude activism and authoritarian actions.
DBoss is exactly correct. The NHC uses models to extrapolate surface winds from aircraft dropsondes. Aircraft do not and can not measure surface winds directly.
The NDBC buoys and coast anemometers do read surface wind speeds directly.
Every surface anemometer in reality shows that tropical cyclone Ian is much weaker than claimed by the NHC. The nullschool shows exactly the same sustained surface winds, at 60 to 64 knots in the area of maximum, which is the NW eyewall. The east eyewall is over the coast with much lower wind speeds in the 50 knot range.
Realtime data absolutely refutes the wind velocities claimed by the NHC, and regurgitated by the media. NHC claims since 2005 have been suspect as far as claimed sustained surface winds. Post storm damage photos always show lower winds, that are consistent with the surface anemometers.
Surface damage from Ian will be consistent with a borderline TS/Cat 1 storm. Much less than predicted by a Saffir-Simpson category 3.
The NHC is absolutely culpable in the mass hysteria from their dire predictions of damage. This storm has as much dangers as any storm of the same size and winds, the storm surge will be more destructive. People living in Florida should know this.
You’re what we call ‘a special kind of stupid’.
Seriously? You really think all of that aircraft reconnaissance, satellite, doppler radar, etc. data is all fake and made up and that the other meteorological institutions like ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, etc. are turning a blind eye to false official narrative? Really?
The stupid is strong with most of the commenters here. Not ignorant – stupid.
It is mind boggling. I’m literally seeing isolated 220 mph and widespread 200 mph observations from the KTBW radar at 9000 ft. Using the standard vertical wind profile of tropical cyclones suggests Ian may actually be at category 5 intensity now. We’re going to see more than “some damage”. It is going to be significant.
at 2 miles up … 200 mph.
what are you literally seeing at 0.03 miles up?
I’m not seeing anything at 0.03 miles up. The radar beam does not go that low.
I just the saw the SFMR observation of 121 kts in the southeast quadrant. That is the weakest part of the storm. Hopefully AF307 makes a pass into the strongest part next.
Exactly! the point being made, but ignored by Duane and Co.
bdgwx, I just dropped 2 hits of acid and I’m seeing winds of over 420 mph! It’s worse than we thought! How much worse can it get!!!
Let me get this straight…Ian killed people and caused a lot of damage and will possibly rank among the most costly hurricanes in US history and you think its appropriate to mock the situation?
Why not? We have had two-plus years of b.s. from every Health organization and news organization in the World regarding masks, distancing, fake tests and jabs… just because their organization ‘titles’ are impressive, means nothing.
Also, You seem to be ignoring the crucial point made in those posts… that of the buoys and anemometers being far more accurate than those “estimates” based on “models”.
Anemometers use models. Buoys (specifically VENF1 and BGCF1) recorded hurricane winds (>= 65 kts) and they weren’t even in the eye wall. BTW…buoys use models to measure wind speed too.
I’m glad our Met Office doesn’t do this live storm watch stuff. The BBC would be even more unsufferable.
The National Bouy Data Center is worth following for live data from offshore buoys.
National Data Buoy Center (noaa.gov)
There are several buoys that are relevant for the current storm. None of the buoy data shows hurricane force winds currently, though that can certainly change quickly
And then you can search on the ones nearest to Ian with https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4 . Currently none are much closer than 40nm, and none higher than 47 knots. What is the radius of the eye?
Hmmm, the lowest pressure in those data is 29.26 in, which *33.864 converts to 991mb. That is way above the 937mb minimum claimed by NOAA in their 12:00EDT update. So none of the buoys is close enough to the centre. Or, could the buoys with ‘-‘ records have been incapacitated by high winds?
Are there any Weather Channel guys being blown over on the shore nearest to Ian?
jim-blo canatoree is out there but I didn’t watch the video cause he makes me want to puke
From Palmowski’s picture at 8:05am I would estimate the eye is 40 miles across, 20 miles radius.
Ian is a very dangerous, slow-moving hurricane. Damage to the coast will be extensive.
The hurricane may move along the west coast of Florida.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=namer×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Pretty good live feed https://youtu.be/wLMBR4QLQ7k
Note that the hurricane is strengthening, drawing energy from the Caribbean Sea.
Looks like Oregon and Washington are in for a bad time, too.
That’s a typical look for the NW … nothing there.
Low coast winds and very nice fall weather.
(of course I am talking about ground winds and not 2 miles up).
Absolutely gorgeous day here in the PNW. A little shower last night but warm and dry right now with barely a breeze. I’m a little bummed they aerated the greens last week, or I’d be out on the course today.
However, my prayers are with Floridians. Stay safe. Glad that some of you still have power and linkage, apparently.
Nullschool shows Ian stronger on the west eyewall. Eye center still off coast. East eyewall over the coast.
NDBC shows sustained winds less than hurricane force. Venice, FL at just over 40 knots.
is the highest.
All kinds of real time videos in the media, all show less than hurricane winds, consistent with tropical storm force.
https://classic.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-80.67,23.44,4184/loc=-83.117,26.622
Claims by the NHC are grossly exaggerated. Ian west eyewall winds are just barely hurricane force, about 64 knots maximum sustained wind speed. Ian east eyewall is definitely less than hurricane force.
Real time NDBC anemometers are reliable sustained surface winds measures that correlate with observed damage based on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Most of the post storm damage photos will show the same. Tropical storm, borderline Category 1 at most.
AF307 just recorded 136 kts a flight level and 121 kts at the surface via SFMR in the weakest part of the cyclone with a pressure drop of 2 mb from the previous advisory. You still sticking with < 64 kts?
SFMR is not a measurement, it’s a model that extrapolates surface winds from the aircraft altitude. If you have real surface data, then show it. Are you saying the NDBC anemometers are all wrong??
bwegher said; “SFMR is not a measurement, it’s a model that extrapolates surface winds from the aircraft altitude.”
Patently False. SFMR is a measurement. Radar is a measurement. Satellite is a measurement. They’re all measurements. And all measurements require a model regardless of whether it was an anemometer, laser interferometer, stepped frequency microwave radiometer, etc. If you don’t like models then you aren’t going to like any velocity figure.
bwegher said; “If you have real surface data, then show it.”
SFMR 121 kts on the south side of Ian.
bwegher said: “Are you saying the NDBC anemometers are all wrong??”
On the contrary. I’m the one saying that anemometers despite being dependent on models is an acceptable measurement. If you can find me an anemometer with a reading higher than 121 kts then I’ll have no choice but to accept its value as the maximum wind. The question is…will you accept anemometer measurements?
There’s a huge difference between measuring one thing and then using a model to claim something different vs. the “model” design that converts RPM to wind speed. Are you that clueless or do you get paid by the liars?
If by “clueless” you mean that I don’t accept that the winds at 26.4N, 82.0W as of 18Z are < 64 kts because no one thought to put an anemometer at that location and that Ian is nothing more than a tropical storm then yes I’m extremely “clueless”. I’m so “clueless”, in fact, that I also accept that the Earth is round. Unfortunately I do not get paid for being this “clueless”.
You must be mentally impared. SFMR is not data, it’s a model.
Anyone (besides you) have not shown surface data that shows the eastern eyewall over the coast of Florida with sustained winds reaching Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ian has not made landfall with sustained winds of hurricane force. The west eyewall is just barely hurricane force based on earthnullschool
By that logic anemometer readings are not data either because they too use models. So even if AF307 dropped an anemometer in the eye wall and it miraculously survived you wouldn’t accept it anyway. Same with dropsondes. They use models too so you aren’t going to accept them either. And why are you wanting to find the maximum wind speed over land anyway? That’s not where the maximum winds occur. Regardless it’s probably pointless to point out that there have already been land based ASOS reports over 85 kts and far exceeding 64 kts, but since ASOS uses a model to measure wind speed you likely won’t accept those either.
Yes, a model is a hypothesis, to be tested with sensory and observational data.
Batten down the hatches. Stow the sails. We’re returning to our normally scheduled weather. For awhile, there were fears of climate change, but Her Choice has been to abort that unwanted anthropogenic conceit.