Essay by Eric Worrall
CSIRO Chief Climate Scientist Pep Canadell lamenting the lost emissions reductions of the Covid Lockdowns.
Climate change targets achievable by keeping global emissions to COVID levels, scientists say
ABC Science / By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
To keep climate change within limits that we can reasonably adapt to, the world needs to cut emissions at nearly the same rate it did during the peak of the global COVID–19 pandemic, scientists say.
Key points:
- Relative CO2 emissions dropped more between 2019 and 2020 than at any other time in recorded modern history
- Climate scientists say driving down emissions by a similar percentage each year, by transforming to a clean energy economy, could keep warming to around 1.5C
- The climate emergency needs to be handled with the same urgency as the pandemic, they warn
Between 2019 and 2020, global carbon dioxide emissions experienced the largest single year-on-year decline ever recorded — 6.3 per cent — dwarfing dips during both the global financial crisis of 2008, and the estimated decline following the end of World War II.
If we could continue that trend every year, we’d be able to limit warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the international team of scientists, who published their findings today in Nature Geoscience.
…
“It’s not just individuals doing their part to reduce how much they travel — those sorts of things are not the solutions.
“We need a planned transition across society to implement the changes that are needed.”
It’s also important to note that we would need to see this type of reduction in emissions compounded each consecutive year as we drive towards net zero, she said.
“It is a really interesting example that shows you what it means when scientists say we need ambitious and immediate action to [combat climate change].”
The problem of course is that in the economic rebound that followed COVID restrictions, emissions have again headed north, Dr Canadell said.
“We missed an opportunity and made decisions that weren’t the best for a green recovery.“
“This tells you that the massive change we saw in the economy — in this case because we were shutting it down — an equivalent change needs to happen in the decarbonisation of the world,” said study co-author Pep Canadell from the CSIRO.
…
Read more: https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101192612
Although Pep currently works for the CSIRO, Pep got his qualifications at the University of Barcelona, Spain. So I’m guessing he’s no stranger to those air travel emissions he would like the rest of us to cut back on.
Pep avoids calling for people to be deprived of private vehicle ownership or whatever, but there seems no other practical means to achieve the kind of climate lockdown emissions cuts Pep is demanding. Likely there is no practical means of making such cuts. Even if people switched from automobiles back to horses, horse manure produces an awful lot of methane.
Update (EW): Davidmhoffer makes a good point, about the lack of impact the great Covid lockdown had on global CO2 levels.
‘The climate emergency needs to be handled with the same urgency as the pandemic, they warn’
Well, that worked out well. Yet another example of the ‘Fatal Conceit’.
The estimated cost of the Global CoVid pandemic was between US$4 trillion and US $8.5 trillion, depending on which world economic authority you believe, for a drop of 6.3% in world CO2 emissions.
Now to suffer that cost in contraction of world GDP each year going forward to 2050 with a view to alleviating the estimated cost of climate change in 2100….
Hmm.
Pass.
So, to achieve the mystical green utopia, we need to shut down the worlds economies? Is there a point to ‘saving the world’ from climate change, when the solution turns the world into a shit hole of despair?
Haven’t these commies learned that ” planned ” economies don’t work? Look at Cooba. Venezuela. Nicaragua. Laos. They suck the big enchilada. Planned energy ” transitions ” are crapola. Capice?
Most greens would like a return to sedan chairs. That sort of retrograde condition is more in line with how they regard their sedan chair bearers. Peasant scum, all the way down!
Between 2019 and 2020, global carbon dioxide emissions experienced the largest single year-on-year decline ever recorded — 6.3 per cent — dwarfing dips during both the global financial crisis of 2008, and the estimated decline following the end of World War II.
6.3%! Well that ought to stick out like a sore thumb on the rise of CO2 concentration over time.
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/
Oops, no it doesn’t. Nada, nothing. Never mind arguing about how sensitive the climate is to CO2, the alarmists cannot even demonstrate that the emission reductions they seek would make the difference in CO2 levels that they claim.
“This tells you that the massive change we saw in the economy — in this case because we were shutting it down — an equivalent change needs to happen in the decarbonisation of the world,”
They propose to sentence billions of people to abject poverty with an absolutely straight face. Look! We’re saving you from the horrors of +2 degrees a hundred years from now! Two degrees! Yes we know, we’re sentencing billions to short miserable lives filled with disease and starvation, but you’ll thank us in a century…
And notice the idiosyncratic shape of the sawtooths does not alter let alone amplitude. Do we understand the carbon cycle? No.
Don’t tell me, show me.
It was CSIRO who helped to develop what is now known as USC, HELE (ultra super critical, high energy low emissions) coal power technology. I had a copy of their magazine reporting on the project – can’t find it, and it is not findable on their website. How have the mighty fallen.
Pep just doesn’t care an iota about real people and the challenges they face. Obsessed with the CO2 boogeyman and thinks COVID co2 reductions are sustainable and COMPOUNDABLE! This year give up cars and planes like during 2020. Then next year lets drop another 6.5% by… freezing or sweltering in the dark.
This is the same woke crowd that wants suicide for every condition, as no discomfort is permissible and yet for the sake of climate it’s ok to put humanity through hell, leave the developing world in the toilet, ok for people to die because that actually helps the cause.
Climate alarmists really are a doomsday cult.
If this Pep fellow thinks CO2 levels drive up global temperatures then he is NOT a Scientist. He is merely a brainwashed tool of the Communist Party; but, of course, doesn’t realise it.
This CSIRO paper needs to be put on hold pending reviews and outcomes of 2 new papers by mathematician Demetris Koutsoyiannis and colleagues. Published May 25 2022, so review is just starting.
Revisiting causality using stochastics: 1. Theory (ntua.gr)
Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications (ntua.gr)
Here is an extract from the first paper.
The remaining real-world case study led to an important side product of the current research. This is the surprising finding that, while in general the causal relationship of atmospheric T and CO₂ concentration, as obtained by proxy data, appears to be of hen-or-egg type with principal direction 𝑇 → [CO₂], in the recent decades the more accurate modern data support a conclusion that this principal direction has become exclusive. In other words, it is the increase of temperature that caused increased CO₂ concentration. Though this conclusion may sound counterintuitive at first glance, because it contradicts common perception (and for this reason we have assessed the case with an alternative parametric methodology in the Supplementary Information, section SI2.4, with results confirming those presented here), in fact it is reasonable. The temperature increase began at the end of the Little Ice Period, in the early 19th century, when human CO₂ emissions were negligible; hence other factors, such as the solar activity (measured by sunspot numbers), as well as internal long-range mechanisms of the complex climatic systems had to play their roles.
If correct, the CSIRO paper will be largely wrong and should be considered for retraction.
Geoff S
The Covid emissions reductions are as much a green fantasy as the global warming he’s trying to stop.
stupid much?
so how do these IYI think that the massive 9x solar setups , the ftard green/teals/labor are saying we would need in just 10yrs?
and the GK how many wind turbines would get made?
firing this fella would be useful
Those climate freaks are fools. CO2 is not a climate driver. This site has published more info than many others that shows the the proof of the climate change fraud.
Canadell must be angling for another government grant for more junk science modelling.
SA is doing its part….
South Africans struggle in the dark to cope with power cuts – ABC News (go.com)
I found the study here. more models. Check out the authors.
– – – – – – – – –
Global patterns of daily CO2 emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19
Day-to-day changes in CO2 emissions from human activities, in particular fossil-fuel combustion and cement production, reflect a complex balance of influences from seasonality, working days, weather and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-00965-8
“Relative CO2 emissions dropped more between 2019 and 2020 than at any other time in recorded modern history.”
and then….
“Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose by 6% in 2021 to 36.3 billion tonnes, their highest ever level, as the world economy rebounded strongly from the Covid-19 crisis and relied heavily on coal to power that growth, according to new IEA analysis released today.”
Emerging economies are embracing the use of fossil fuels to make net zero by 2050 a pipedream!
“We need a planned transition across society to implement the changes that are needed.”
************
All scientists making this claim need to go first. Transition to a life devoid of demand for fossil fuel energy and fossil fuel-based products in your lives. When the rest of us see what happened to your standard of living and quality of life, we will decide whether or not to join you.
Until the day climate alarmist scientists do this, they will not impress me with their rhetoric. Hypocrites.
“Er… we prepared for it, and then we almost had a full grip on the economy, but kinda slipped… can we please try again, miss?” says a C+ student, while remnants of Lenin and Roosevelt slowly start spinning.
The bane of the modern Progressives is excessively Progressive education.
And would you look at that? You literally cannot see any effect of the ’emissions drop’ from human activity!
Anyone notice the discrepancy between the red measurements and the black line? The little hiccup at the start of 2022 followed by an immeidate spike and the spike fails to show at all.
I seriousl;y doubt the accuracy of those figures – that looks far more like manipulation to try and prove a point.
Between 2019 and 2020, global carbon dioxide emissions experienced the largest single year-on-year decline ever recorded — 6.3 per cent — dwarfing dips during both the global financial crisis of 2008, and the estimated decline following the end of World War II.
If we could continue that trend every year, we’d be able to limit warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the international team of scientists, who published their findings today in Nature Geoscience.
Instead of seeing the strong correlation above between burning fossil fuels and economic heath/prosperity, they discard economic health all together and call for conditions that would correlate with a permanent economic collapse………..the new normal in a world without fossil fuels.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
As long as it keeps us from hitting the magical +1.5 deg C of warming, we are in good shape (-:
Everything is ok up to +1.499 deg C……….then, like somebody flips a switch, an increase above that means the currently greening planet, featuring most life doing well, will suddenly transform to a planet of non productive deserts along with massively flooded land. The oceans will increase 25 feet in 1 year and swamp all the coastlines as the polar ice completely melts.
Ticks, fleas, roaches, weeds, mold, bacteria and killer bees will replace honey bees, butterfly’s, tree frogs, bunny rabbits, polar bears, crops and humans.
The weather will transform to record heat during the Summers, followed by record cold in much of the Winter because of the polar vortex permanently relocating in the mid latitudes.
Violent tornadoes will dominate thru much of the Spring, as far north as the Arctic Circle with dozens of cat. 5 hurricanes every year.
All this taking place immediately after the critical +1.5 deg C temperature threshold is crossed.
“6.3 per cent”, a totally fake number estimated by desk jockeys sitting in climate la-la land. That number is unrecognizable via any actual measurement.