2021 State of The Climate Report: Empirical Observations Show No Sign of ‘Climate Crisis’ – ‘Snow Cover Stable, Sea Ice Levels Recovering, & No Change in Storm Activity’

Reposted from Climate Depot

In his annual State of the Climate report, Ole Humlum, emeritus professor at the University of Oslo, examined detailed patterns in temperature changes in the atmosphere and oceans together with trends in climate impacts. Many of these show no significant trends and suggest that poorly understood natural cycles are involved.

And while the report finds gentle warming, there is no evidence of dramatic changes, with snow cover stable, sea ice levels recovering, and no change in storm activity.

By: Admin – Climate Depot

April 18, 2022 8:35 AM

In his annual State of the Climate report, Ole Humlum, emeritus professor at the University of Oslo, examined detailed patterns in temperature changes in the atmosphere and oceans together with trends in climate impacts. Many of these show no significant trends and suggest that poorly understood natural cycles are involved.

And while the report finds gentle warming, there is no evidence of dramatic changes, with snow cover stable, sea ice levels recovering, and no change in storm activity.

Professor Humlum said:

“A year ago, I warned that there was great risk in using computer modelling and immature science to make extraordinary claims. The empirical observations I have reviewed show very gentle warming and no evidence of a climate crisis.”

GWPF director, Dr Benny Peiser said:

“It’s extraordinary that anyone should think there is a climate crisis. Year after year our annual assessment of climate trends document just how little has been changing in the last 30 years. The habitual climate alarmism is mainly driven by scientists’ computer modelling rather than observational evidence.”

Ole Humlum: State of the Climate 2021 (pdf)


Sea level
Global sea level is monitored by satellite altimetry and by direct measurement using tide gauges. While the satellite record suggests a global sea-level rise of about 3.3mm per year or more, data from tide gauges all over the world suggest a stable rise of 1–2mm per year. The tide gauges indicate no recent acceleration (or
deceleration) of sea-level rise. The marked difference (a ratio of about 1:2) between the two datasets has no universally accepted explanation, but it is known that the satellite observations face complications in areas near the coast (see, for example, Vignudelli et al. 2019). Whatever the truth, the tide-gauge data are more relevant for local coastal planning purposes.

Sea ice
In 2021, global sea-ice cover remained well below the average for the satellite era, but is now increasing. At the end of 2016, it reached a marked minimum, at least partly caused by the operation of two different natural variation patterns, affecting sea ice in the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere, respectively. These
variations had simultaneous minima in 2016. The trend towards stable or higher ice extent at both poles probably began in 2018, and has since strengthened. The marked Antarctic 2016 sea-ice reduction was the result of unusual wind conditions.

Snow cover
Variations in global snow cover are mainly caused by changes in the Northern Hemisphere, where all the major land areas are located. Southern Hemisphere snow is mainly found in the Antarctic, and cover is therefore relatively stable. The Northern Hemisphere average snow cover has been stable since the onset of satellite observations, although local and regional interannual variations may be large. Since 1979, Northern Hemisphere snow cover in autumn has been slightly increasing, the mid-winter cover is basically stable, and the spring cover is slightly decreasing. In 2021, the Northern Hemisphere seasonal snow cover was close to the 1972–2020 average. 

Storms and hurricanes

The most recent data on global tropical storm and hurricane accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is well within the range observed since 1970. In fact, the ACE data is highly variable over time, with a significant 3.6-year variation, but without any clear trend towards higher or lower values. The number of hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States remains within the range for the entire observation period since 1851.


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John Larson
April 20, 2022 2:45 am

“It’s extraordinary that anyone should think there is a climate crisis. Year after year our annual assessment of climate trends document just how little has been changing in the last 30 years. The habitual climate alarmism is mainly driven by scientists’ computer modelling rather than observational evidence.”

I suggest bearing in mind that correlation is not causation, professor.

Last edited 1 year ago by John Larson
Ken Irwin
Reply to  John Larson
April 20, 2022 5:37 am

The following comment explains just how out of touch with reality climate modelers are :-
“People underestimate the power of models. Observational evidence is not very useful” – John Mitchell, Chief Research Scientist British MET – the man should be fired – how unscientific can you get ! He is saying that the models are right and the observed data is wrong – this kind of addle brained thinking is endemic in the warmist camp. Since when in science did “observed data” become “not very useful” and trumped by model generated data – I get angry at even having to write this.
If the Met Bureau tells you its sunny outside and you find it’s actually pouring with rain – then you are clearly mistaken.

Reply to  Ken Irwin
April 20, 2022 11:27 am

Observational evidence is not very useful to promote hysteria and steal money is what he meant.

John Larson
Reply to  Doonman
April 20, 2022 3:50 pm

Yes, I suggest it is borderline ludicrous to think that multitudes of people are actually alarmed by those models. (And, suspect relatively few promoting “climate alarmism” are either.)

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Ken Irwin
April 22, 2022 4:46 pm

My friend Joe D’Aleo, a world-class meteorologist in terms of his correct predictive track record, said to me a few years ago:
“These people (climate alarmist modelers) live in a virtual world. They think their models are more accurate than observed reality!”
My observations:

Viewed from the standpoint of the Scientific Method, I suggest that this bizarre dismissal of observed realty in favor of (typically inaccurate) climate computer models is a form of mental illness termed “psychosis, a loss of contact with reality” – call it “Climate Modelers’ Syndrome”.
This bizarre Climate Modelers’ Syndrome is surprisingly commonplace. As with all other such very-scary Global Warming (CAGW) and Climate Change fantasies, being popular does not make it correct – it is false.

Last edited 1 year ago by Allan MacRae
John Larson
Reply to  Allan MacRae
April 24, 2022 3:38 pm

“This bizarre Climate Modelers’ Syndrome is surprisingly commonplace. As with all other such very-scary Global Warming (CAGW) and Climate Change fantasies, being popular does not make it correct – it is false.”

What I have noticed is that those models are not currently being (publicly) stressed by the alarmists trying to keep the alarmism going. They are being stressed by their opponents (like on this site). They have become a liability, it seems to me, and for very good reasons.

Now, what is going through the minds of alarmist scientists I cannot know. Maybe they are still very much alarmed by what those models show, but unless the models themselves are being used to stoke alarmism beyond those scientist’s minds, I don’t see how they could be “driving” alarmism. (The causal link is broken, so to speak.)

What I see out of the alarmism stokers now is endless focusing on extreme weather events, fires, record breaking high temps, melting ice somewhere, etc., and claims (made or implied) that these are indicators that we need to “take climate action” right away quick, and that those who suggest otherwise are blind to what we can all “see” happening.

Last edited 1 year ago by John Larson
Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  John Larson
April 20, 2022 7:53 am

He knows . . . trust me . . . he knows!

Reply to  John Larson
April 20, 2022 9:37 am

Along the lines of the usual fallacious reasoning of all lefty warmistas– the post hoc ergo propter hoc belief: Tuesday follows Monday, therefore Monday caused Tuesday.

Janice Moore
Reply to  John Larson
April 20, 2022 11:38 am

Respectfully, what is your point, Mr. Larson? Professor Humlum, the only professor you might plausibly be addressing, clearly understands the concept you suggest he bear in mind (See Humlum’s numerous publications, including this one). Thus, ???

The AGW gang has been bellowing (essentially) “Correlation! Correlation! Correlation! After, therefore, because of!” for DECADES, now.

Professor Humlum is one of the many science realists asserting: “Correlation is not causation.”

John Larson
Reply to  Janice Moore
April 20, 2022 2:56 pm

My point is that it does not seem particularly logical, to me, to assume that “habitual climate alarmism is mainly driven by scientists’ computer modelling rather than observational evidence.”

The AGW gang has been bellowing (essentially) “Correlation! Correlation! Correlation! After, therefore, because of!” for DECADES, now.”

I think you have pointed out a far more likely causal mechanism there ; )

Janice Moore
Reply to  John Larson
April 20, 2022 7:13 pm

Oh. I kinda see the two mechanisms as logically linked.

Well, anyway, thank you for responding (a relatively rare thing around here 🙂 ).

Take care, out there in the ethersphere.

Your ally for data-driven science,



John Larson
Reply to  Janice Moore
April 21, 2022 1:00 pm

“Oh. I kinda see the two mechanisms as logically linked.”

(I believe most people here do, that’s why I pulled the correlation is not causation alarm ; )

Is severe weather also “logically linked”? Wild fires? Migration? Sea level rise? ?

After all, there’s been bellowing (essentially) “Correlation! Correlation! Correlation! After, therefore, because of!” for decades about those potential causal mechanisms.

Last edited 1 year ago by John Larson
John Larson
Reply to  Janice Moore
April 21, 2022 2:21 pm

I saw something rather interesting recently.

There was an article here about Mr. Mann, and his being “triggered” by Fox News playing on a monitor in the exercise area at some hotel.

I also saw videos on a couple of YouTube channels about the same incident. Neither of those posters seemed to recognize him at all. He was just spoken of as some “woke” professor, beclowning himself on the interwebs.
I scanned the comments and saw no one say word one about him being anyone notable. Just some now typical nutty self-important college professor, getting ridiculously bent out of shape for no good reason.

April 20, 2022 3:21 am

This is nonsense from a political activist climate denialist. Isn’t it?

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 3:33 am

Griff, but what do you think about the scientific observations he presents?

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  David Mason-Jones
April 20, 2022 8:08 am

Please don’t feed the trolls.

John Larson
Reply to  David Mason-Jones
April 20, 2022 5:55 pm

I suggest griff is effectively revealing his level of dishonesty (or spectacular gullibility) when he speaks of a scientist (or anyone at all) denying climate. Why would you ask someone so dishonest (or spectacularly gullible ; ) what he thinks about anything? Why would you expect him to give a reasonable response?

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 3:37 am

I live in Australia, the land of severe droughts, often followed by bushfires and flooding rains. Late 2019 into 2020 bushfires following a long dry drought and then floods.

By February 2022 more floods and now in late April still a lot of rain and some flooding.

As with past history since colonisation in January, 1788.

And with the last major change of climate to drier from around 130,000 years ago with rainforests replaced with eucalypts that tolerate dry conditions today and only 3 per cent of rainforest remaining.

And of course since the Little Ice Age recovery a gradual warming again underway.

Situation normal for this climate zone.

Reply to  Dennis
April 20, 2022 3:44 am

I live on the Mid Coast NSW coastal plain and between a tidal lake with many islands and some rivers flowing into the lake, and the ocean. The original landholding covered a much larger area and was purchased in the late 1800s.

There has been little difference in highest tides level to present day.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Dennis
April 20, 2022 4:48 am
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 3:11 pm

Absolutely. Eucalyptus forests drop litter at a rate of 8 tonnes/hectare every year, but only 29% of this decomposes annually. So there is a rapid buildup of forest litter to a point where once a bushfire starts, it’s impossible to stop. Australia needs to cool burn more than 10% of its forests every year, but the two main states, NSW and Victoria, burn less than 2% annually.

Reply to  Graeme#4
April 20, 2022 9:17 pm

The Southern Snowy Mountains high country (high for Australia) was used by early colonial settlers for cattle grazing after they found grasslands perfect for summer grazing.

The grasslands were maintained by Indigenous seasonal burning, areas burnt in a patch by patch fashion every couple of years resulting in major bushfires being almost eliminated by the controlled and much cooler bushfires that enable wildlife to escape from and encouraging the growth of new grasses.

The settlers followed the Indigenous tradition and burnt areas as they left before winter.

In recent times grazing has been banned and a lack of land maintenance has resulted in thickening bushland and even blackberry bushes tangling with long grass and weeds, perfect fuel for wild fires my friends who ride Horses in the Victoria high country tell me, and they are Cattlemen’s Association members and Country Fire Authority volunteers.

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 3:49 am

Are you a Holocaust denier?

Is that how the game is played 🤔

Reply to  Derg
April 20, 2022 2:06 pm

Haha, the name caller is all upset coz he got called names. Too funny.

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 3:53 am

No, griff, it is a paper by someone who has looked at the records and reported what he found. Read the whole paper.

Timo V
Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 4:06 am

“This is nonsense from a political activist climate denialist. Isn’t it?” <—This is nonsense from a political activist climate denialist. Isn’t it?

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 4:16 am

Are you just lazy brat? If so, I’m very disappointed in you. Why can’t you do better than ad hominem and produce some facts. Sometimes you manage to say true things, get with it!

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 4:19 am

This is nonsense from a political activist climate denialist. Isn’t it?

No, Griff mate.

Unless you are able to refute a single sentence of the report

No? Thought not

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 4:31 am

No, this is an antidote to it.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 4:35 am

Talking about nonsense, why is it that Warmistas still cling to the CAGW theory even after its
signature tropopausal warming can’t be found anywhere, including Trenberth’s lame dog-ate-my-
homework deep ocean excuse he used to explain the Pause? 😮 😮 😮

Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 2:57 pm

If there were deep ocean warming, that could explain the increase in atmospheric CO2. One way or the other, deep ocean warming is a problem for the alarmists.

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 5:09 am

Yes! Griff, you have summed yourself up to a ‘T’!

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 5:16 am

So says the natural climate variability denier, griff.

Have you switched to living on renewable power only yet griff? Doubtful seeing as how you’re communicating on a low wind day before the sun was fully operational even now barely a third of electricity is from unreliables

David A
Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 5:18 am

Well Griff, as far as I can tell it is very accurate. What facts do you disagree with? Any that you fail to dispute, I will assume you admit as true.

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 5:59 am

Nothing of note to report in Adelaide South Australia after the geology of Hallett Cove showed a SLR of 130M between 15000 and 6-7000 years ago when Spencer and St Vincent Gulfs were formed. Must have been a 3M drop after that as the stranded shingle dunes at Fitzgerald Bay north of Whyalla show too. Dams are full and so is the Murray Darling so the desal plant built for the last drought is still in mothballs waiting for the next one to occur. What about around your joint griff?

Reply to  observa
April 20, 2022 4:43 pm

Been hoping that the white elephant rusting hulk desal plant here in SE Queensland might get washed away in the flooding … no luck. Us taxpayers are footing a horrendous bill for its standby upkeep.

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 6:24 am

“This is nonsense from a political activist climate denialist.”

Great title for your post, griff.

…. and as usual.. zero content.

We all know that you are a deep “climate denier”, denying natural variability and the recovery from the LIA

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 6:25 am

It’s like this griff. Oz is a big continent in the Southern Hemisphere bounded by different oceans so it gets lots of different weather like so-
Australia’s east coast to be hammered with FOUR months worth of rain (msn.com)
Like the weather man says it’s La Nina that’s dumping a lot of water on East coast residents at present but we only made the connection with that and El Nino in the 1960s-
La Niña Fact Sheet (nasa.gov)
None of those climastrologists you’re so fond of with all their fancy computers can tell us when they’re coming or how influential they’ll be so whaddya reckon with their constant dooming forecasts for a century?

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 7:00 am

Since you asked the question, griff, the answer is no.

You could have repudiated something, no?

Andy Pattullo
Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 7:37 am

Yes if you are referring to your own comments but it was unnecessary to state it.

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 8:18 am

Griff so which of the data sets that Professor Humlum cited are incorrect?

Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level: http://www.psmsl.org/.
Sea level from satellites: https://sealevel.colorado.edu/data/2020rel1-global-mean-sea-level-seasonal-signals-retained.
Ocean temperatures from Argo floats: http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/.
Rutgers University Global Snow Laboratory: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php.
Maue ACE data: climatlas.com/tropical/.
Hurricane Research Division, NOAA: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html.
National Ice Center (NIC). http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC): http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html.
AMO, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, USA: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/ timeseries/AMO/.
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division: http://www. aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html.

Calling the professor a name while ignoring the factual data presented makes you petulant child.

Phil R
Reply to  DaveinCalgary
April 20, 2022 4:25 pm


This is not directly a response to you, just a general comment and this was a convenient place to put it.

I’m at a loss to understand why so many people respond to Griff’s childish, infantile drive-byes. He comes by, makes a ridiculous comment and disappears, then everyone wastes time by giving him all the attention this sad, little creature craves.

Many of the responses are well thought out, logical, factual and well written and take some time to develop. You’ll never get a thoughtful response from Griff.

You can’t have an intelligent, rational, objective discussion with an irrational, emotionally driven ideologue.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 10:55 am

Says the political activist doomsday fear-mongering end of the world catastrophist.

Why aren’t you out scaring the daylights out of some children, or gluing yourself to a roadway somewhere?

Reply to  griff
April 20, 2022 8:18 pm

Are you proud of being a text book internet troll?
Why don’t you ever reply to comments directed at your ”arguments”?
Why are you so willing to demonstrate your feeble, blindly biased, nonsensical thought process?
Do you actually believe you have any power of persuasion?

Last edited 1 year ago by Mike
Robert Hanson
Reply to  Mike
April 21, 2022 9:20 am

What part of the term “troll” don’t you understand? 🙂

John Larson
Reply to  Mike
April 21, 2022 4:50 pm

Why don’t you ever reply to comments directed at your ”arguments”?”

I suggest it’s because he is merely inserting some terms that will be recognized by “normies” who happen to come upon an article/discussion like this one, and are trying to make sense of it. They have been conditioned relentlessly for years to react to such terms as “climate denier” in a very negative way. It means kook to them, to their reactive mind. Like “flat earther” of “conspiracy theorist”.

His intent is to cause a long chain of responses such as occurred here, which serves as validation to that conditioning. People taking it seriously, even returning the accusation, establishes in their reactive mind, that they have correctly understood that it is a meaningful and significant term, a real position the “kooks” actually hold, (when push comes to shove, so to speak). The point of the contention they’ve been hearing about, the hold-up to “tackling climate change” and such.

To many here, I surmise, a very different reaction occurs. Their minds reactively “fill in” the unspoken details that make it something other than a totally ridiculous question. They “hear” something more like “Critical thinking skeptic of the catastrophic climate change alarmists agenda driven pseudo science”. But the hapless visitor “hears” no such thing.

I suggest “feeding the troll”, by simply responding to what griff actually wrote. Don’t allow your reactive mind to fill in those details for him, before responding.

If you ask something like; “Do you really think someone who studies climate thinks there’s no such thing as climate?” :What’s griff going to say that could salvage his bizzaro-land question?

I say, feed the troll, something he will not like the taste of ; )

Rod Evans
April 20, 2022 3:23 am

Maybe someone can let me know if the BBC or its printed partner the Guardian bring this climate report into public awareness. I only ask because I never listen or watch the BBC or bother reading the opinion pieces presented as news, by the Guardian.
Good news/accurate observation never gets promoted by the Climate Alarmists.

Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 4:19 am

Just posting a global temperature anomalies graph alone can cause one to get hysterical cuz it
lacks perspective. This is why absolute global temperature graphs in both °C & °K with the base @
0° should also be included. The first would give perspective on global temps relative to what people
experience daily. The second would give perspective to techies who are aware of thermodynamics.
Perspective lets people interpret information for what it really says. Without that, we can advocate
a lot of stupid & nasty things.

About 10 yrs ago. I saw a graph with a red line displaying the global temperature anomalies from
just 1978-1997. I realized it would’ve been quite normal to be very alarmed if that is all I knew about
global temperatures as most people are only shown anomalies. Even though the graph I have
attached only shows temperature anomalies, having historical perspective shows me that this high
warming rate has happened twice before since 1850 & is NOT a reason to sound like Chicken Little.
Having a longer time period can also help gain perspective.

I can’t find any graphs of global temperatures in either °C & °K with a baseline of 0°. If any of you
have them, please post them as they are real eyeopeners as to the difference of absolute Ts vs
anomalies. Thanks.

Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 4:53 am

In spite of all the worldly changes over that period, temperature stability is remarkable, especially if looked at from a fuller temperature range as you suggest.

Reply to  Scissor
April 20, 2022 5:06 am

Again mentioned in Australia recently that climate hoax based renewable, unreliable and intermittent, energy subsidies, direct for profit of shareholders, additional to any legal tax deductions for expenses incurred in producing taxable income or fuel tax rebate for diesel used for off-road applications, exceeds A$7 billion a year.

It would be interesting to add that cost to the now much higher than before renewable energy gained a small share of supply electricity accounts paid by all consumers.

Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 6:16 am

I plot UAH sat. data frequently. I have no use for NASA or NOAA data as they have demonstrably been hacked beyond all recognition. To the point, the run up from ~1900 to ~1935 has been flattened *and* the great cooling from ~1940 to ~1975 has been eliminated. The rewrite of the 20th century climate history was done in stages from 1988 to about 2010. The constant editing of the past continues to this day. So much for NASA and NOAA.

Back to the UAH data set. Dr, Spencer is a bit bashful to put a firm absolute temperature on the UAH data because it measures something rather different to the surface temp. He did at one point suggest that maybe something like ~15 degrees might be OK.

I can make up a chart of UAH data scaled such that the Y axis starts at 0.0 deg C. and the UAH 0.0 anomaly is reset to 15.0 deg. C., with the Y axis running up to 17.0 deg. C. or so.
Then I can post the graph here and you can download it.

Reply here if this is suitable for your needs and I will start in on it.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  TonyL
April 20, 2022 7:46 am

I was only thinking of an already published graph as I know I’ve seen them before. A graph
of global Ts over the last 600My in °K is ~ a straight line. One in °C/°F over the past 150
yrs does rise a bit. The effect is to show it’s not as big as anomalies make it seem.

Unfortunately, you’re right about NASA & NOAA. If it’s not too hard to do, post it for
everyone to see & I can copy it from there. It would be interesting to see. Thanks!

Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 7:49 am

OK, give me a bit of time. I will post when ready.

Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 8:33 am

Here you go.

Click to embiggen, open in a new tab, then in your browser file->save as…

Old Man Winter
Reply to  TonyL
April 20, 2022 8:56 am


It has that “yawn, boring” straight-line effect!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 9:08 am

Yes it does.
Not a whole lot to look at.

Plan B:
Graph the Y-axis from -0.50 to + 0.25.
At this scale, the Super el-nino of 1998 zooms right off the top of the plot. Then temps keep rising and go off the top just before the end.

Scare the stuffings out of them.

I like plan B better.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  TonyL
April 20, 2022 9:14 am

Unfortunately, somebody might take you seriously & panic. It’s really
amazing how important perspective is in doing good analysis.
Thanks again! 🙂

Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 7:06 am

If you study the graph above in OMW’s post you will see that the three temperature jumps are 65 years apart. That is the AMO cycle in action. NOT CO2!!!

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 9:45 am

The other thing people need to see is the temperature “record” presented in full degrees, not TENTHS of a degree that most of the “instrument record” could not even record. When you see the full degree expression of the record, it is instantly apparent that there is absolutely nothing to panic about.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 11:01 am

Here is one for the US, which is the only large continent sized land area that has good records going back over a century:

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 20, 2022 11:02 am

I think this one may be global:

Warming not scaled.jpg
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
April 20, 2022 11:41 am

This is the global representation of yearly average temperature as if it were displayed on a backyard thermometer.

In other words, you hardly notice anything different, which is exactly what happens when you stick your head out the door everyday and look.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Doonman
April 20, 2022 7:04 pm

Yes, exactly.

John Hultquist
Reply to  John Hultquist
April 20, 2022 8:14 pm


Ignore the use of Kelvin degrees (°) used in this one. They symbolism is not considered appropriate.

April 20, 2022 5:02 am

“Sea ice levels recovering”

The reads like it’s a good thing. I’d prefer more ice to melt. Warmer is better.

Reply to  H.R.
April 20, 2022 5:08 am

Living conditions in warmer conditions are better than in colder conditions in my opinion, and far less likely to cause deaths.

Reply to  H.R.
April 20, 2022 6:13 am

Yes, warmer is better. However, some global cooling (or no significant warming for at least ~30 years) is the only thing that can expose and falsify the silly and very destructive and wasteful (c)agw hypothesis.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Edim
April 20, 2022 9:49 am

Well, once they can’t hide the reversal of trend with their “adjustments” any more, they’ll just roll out that “warming causes cooling” canard.

Reply to  H.R.
April 20, 2022 6:44 am

I remember back in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A common occurrence was whales hanging out in open stretches of water known as a polynya for too long. Sea ice would form around them for miles around, effectively trapping them with no path back to open water and their feeding grounds.
Remember “Save The Whales”, this was the heyday of Saving Whales.
Anyway the trapped whales became a “cause celeb” even with national news shows giving nightly updates.
There would be much cheering from the public when a US Coast Guard icebreaker crashed it’s way through the ice to the trapped whales. The icebreaker would turn and make it’s way back to open water. Happily enough, the whales seemed to understand the situation perfectly well. They would allow the icebreaker to get a discrete distance ahead then follow it back out to open water. Without a doubt, the USCG made the most out of all the favorable publicity.
According to the whales, more ice is not better.

Reply to  TonyL
April 20, 2022 7:19 am
Janice Moore
Reply to  Edim
April 20, 2022 12:06 pm

Oh, man, Edim. That was SO COOL. Sure hope EVERYONE WATCHES THAT.
(A cautionary tale against hubris, also — man alive, the rescue “boss” hung up on them; then, refused to accept their help for HOURS….. perhaps, but-for that delay, “Bone” would have lived” 🙁 )

True story behind “The Big Miracle”

April 20, 2022 5:08 am

Aha. The need to dump renewable energy has filtered through academia…Narrative
“Not as bad as we feared…ok for fossil a bit longer…and nuclear of course”…

Reply to  Leo Smith
April 20, 2022 6:29 am

They have probably started to realise that if they get rid of fossil fuels, their offices will have no air-conditioning in summer and no heating in winter. 🙂

Allan MacRae
April 20, 2022 5:35 am

Ole Humlum: State of the Climate 2021 (pdf)

An excellent report.

Atmospheric CO2 changes lag temperature changes at all measured time scales. (MacRae 2008). Humlum et al (2013) confirmed this conclusion. Kuo et al (1990) made similar observations in the journal Nature.
IF CO2 is a significant driver of global temperature, CO2 changes would LEAD temperature changes but they do NOT – CO2 changes LAG temperature changes.
For decades, alarmists have ignored that reality and wasted trillions of dollars and millions of lives with their false climate crisis.
Climate Sensitivity to CO2 is very small, so there is NO real fossil-fuel-caused climate crisis. The only measurable impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is improved crop yields – hugely beneficial to feed the world.
The proof is in my 2008 paper – the close correlation of the rate-of-change dCO2/dt vs Lower Tropospheric air temperature:

The lag of atmospheric CO2 changes after atmospheric temperature changes is ~9 months, as confirmed by Humlum Figure 20. That observation disproves the alleged Global Warming crisis, which ASSUMES that increasing CO2 drives dangerous warming. “The future cannot cause the past.” 

Global Cooling is happening now, as we correctly predicted in 2002 – another disproof of the false global warming climate crisis.
Cheap abundant reliable energy is the lifeblood of humanity. The failure of intermittent wind power generation caused the disastrous electrical energy shortfall in Britain and Germany in recent years.
All this is happening just as we predicted 20 years ago, in 2002 publications.

Last edited 1 year ago by Allan MacRae
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Allan MacRae
April 20, 2022 9:59 am

Keep it up until people listen, Allan.

Reply to  Allan MacRae
April 20, 2022 11:15 am

YouTube Warmista Potholer54 is still trying to convince his dwindling band of fans that this fact does not disprove the entire CAGW hypothesis.

Reply to  Allan MacRae
April 20, 2022 12:52 pm

Posted this comment by excerpt and link at a forum will see what the Warmists/alarmists’ reactions will be.

Thank you.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Sunsettommy
April 20, 2022 10:26 pm

Link please Tommy? Should be amusing.
What will they call me – their latest incarnation of the anti-Christ?

“A disaster of Biblical proportions… Old Testament… Real Wrath of God type stuff… Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies… Rivers and seas boiling… Forty years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes… The dead rising from the grave…
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, Mass Hysteria!”

Ghostbusters Orig Movie scene-Old Testament type stuff…dogs & cats living together, mass hysteria! – YouTube

Bob Close
Reply to  Allan MacRae
April 20, 2022 3:40 pm

Agreed Alan, observations are king the least adulterated the better, it’s been hard getting any sensible climate data out of the BoM in Australia, particularly ground temperatures when their ACORN datasets keep changing the parameters of historical measurements to suit the CAGW mindset.
The latest UAH data for Australia showing only gentle modern warming and recent cooling since 2016, there is no comparison with the homogenised BOM data, shame on them!
Sorry I could not download the file here, this graph tells a real story.

Bob Close
Reply to  Bob Close
April 20, 2022 3:52 pm

The file is atcomment image
Technically, temperatures have been falling according to the UAH Satellites since May 2016.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Bob Close
April 20, 2022 11:55 pm

Agreed Bob – UAH is the “Gold Standard”, and John Christy and Roy Spencer are the best. I use UAH LT whenever I analyse post-1979 data.

I agree that the world is getting colder, some say since 2016 but that relies on the latest big El Nino peak, so I prefer 2020. Year 2020 agrees with our 2002 prediction of global cooling, but both 2016 and 2020 agree with my 2013 update:

I published on September 1, 2002:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
I updated my global cooling prediction in 2013:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
My friend Cap Allon has been posting increasing evidence of global cooling for several years at Electroverse.net. His latest posts are listed below:

April 20, 2022 Cap Allon
The COLD TIMES are returning, the HARVESTS are failing — PREPARE.
April 19, 2022 Cap Allon
EVERY global event is now advancing ‘their’ shift to Totalitarianism. Resist.
April 18, 2022 Cap Allon
Active sunspot complex ‘AR2993-94’ released an X-flare (on April 17), but this “may be just the beginning,” writes Dr Tony Phillips.
April 15, 2022 Cap Allon
Prior to this week, a half-inch was Wenatchee’s snowfall record for the month of April, but on Thursday alone, NWS meteorologists tallied 7-10 inches in town, with 16 inches settling just south of town.
April 14, 2022 Cap Allon
Corn extended its gains toward $8 a bushel. Food shortages are on the horizon, globally. Mitigate the risk by taking your family’s food security back, by growing your own…
My friend and co-author, top meteorologist Joe D’Aleo and I are concerned about food shortages this year. We were concerned even before the war in Ukraine started, which will just make it worse.

I published on 1June2019:
Situation Analysis:

  1. Atmospheric CO2 is not a pollutant – more CO2 is better for humanity and the environment.
  2. The next natural climate cycle will be moderate global cooling, starting anytime now (as we predicted in 2002).
  3. Moderate global cooling will cause more frequent grain crop failures and food shortages, as experienced in the 1960’s and 1970’s.

There was a huge crop failure across the Great Plains of North America in 2019, as we documented in a paper published on 27Oct2019:
By Allan MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
All of our global climate-and-energy policies are 100% wrong – false and fraudulent – wolves stampeding the sheep for political and financial gain. In my opinion, all this needless carnage is being deliberately caused by woke traitors like Biden, Trudeau, Johnson, Macron, Merkel, Morrison, Ardern, etc. who are under the toxic influence of Klaus Schwab and the WEF and other totalitarians who seek control of the world’s population.

Last edited 1 year ago by Allan MacRae
Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
April 22, 2022 12:09 pm

Cold Nino34 SST’s continue to dominate cold weather.

April 22, 2022 Cap Allon
This is a controlled demolition of civilization. Before a ‘Great Reset’ you need a Great Depression. They want to break us. Resist!

April 21, 2022 Cap Allon
Brace/prepare for hyperinflation, food shortages and civil unrest in the very near future: Exit the system and grow your own

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
April 22, 2022 6:05 pm

The forecast is for a very cold week of 1-8May2022 in Western Europe including green-energy sabotaged Britain and Germany.Told you so 20 years ago.

EUROPE BRACES FOR EXTREME ARCTIC OUTBREAK IN MAYLooking at the latest GFS run (shown below), much of Europe, particularly Western and Central regions, can expect a return to wintry conditions in the coming days and weeks, even as the calendar flips to May.

Last edited 1 year ago by Allan MacRae
Peta of Newark
April 20, 2022 5:43 am

From the very root of Global warming Theory, is nicer warmer calmer weather not to be exepcted?
The Theory says that The Atmosphere is going to ‘trap heat’ and thus be at higher than previous temperature.
Fine, OK, Good.

Climate Science then falls flat on its face when it says that this temperature increase will cause wilder weather.
No it won’t because absolute temperature does not cause weather – weather is caused by temperature difference.
It is the difference in temps between Earth’s surface (the actual dirt, soil, rocks, water and plants) and somewhere anywhere at either greater latitude or greater altitude
The temp difference cause convection. AKA: Weather

But the surface is always warmer than anywhere above it (Lapse Rate) so the reduced temp difference must/will can only result in less convection
i.e. Calmer and more settled weather

yes yes yes I know…
I too remember, as a child, seeing Carl Sagan on TV informing the world that hurricanes are caused by elevated ocean temperatures.
But he never stated ‘elevated relative to what
He studiously avoided mention ‘temperature difference
Did he himself even know?

Sagan made Hanson look like a rank amateur and Sagan was the forerunner of newscaster/reporters standing in ditches while breathlessly reporting on ‘flooding’

And simple minded gullible people swallowed that ‘lie by omission’ (and the camera tricks) and still do to this very day – while labouring under the delusion that they understand the quantum mechanics (QM) of the 2nd Law.
(As per Tyndall. But you must forgive him, QM hadn’t been invented then. It was in fact people trying to understand an obvious flaw in Tyndall’s experiment that helped QM on its way)
The obvious flaw being = The Ultraviolet Catastrophe
This was not any radiation accident, it was the pre-existing theories that were ‘catastrophes’ and just as the GHGE is a modern day catastrophe

Last edited 1 year ago by Peta of Newark
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Peta of Newark
April 20, 2022 10:03 am

Yup – and to underscore this, much of the “average” increase in “global temperature” has been night time LOW temperatures being a little higher, not daytime HIGH temperatures getting higher. Which is one MORE way temperature differentials are reduced, not increased, by “global warming” whatever the cause.

AKA, it’s GOOD news when the climate is getting warmer. AKA why every previous warm climate period during the current epoch, the Holocene, was called a CLIMATE OPTIMUM.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Peta of Newark
April 22, 2022 6:30 pm

Agree, cyclone energy is caused by differentials, not absolutes – like a battery.

Years ago I plotted the data from this 2005 NOAA report.
There was a decline in Category 4 and Category 5 hurricane intensity from ~1930 to 2004 (end of data for this 2005 report).
I have found Chris Landsea’s work to be credible.
Regards, Allan

NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-4
Updated August 2005
Eric S. Blake, TPC Miami
Edward N. Rappaport, TPC Miami
Jerry D. Jarrell, TPC Miami (retired)
Christopher W. Landsea, HRD Miami
Tropical Prediction Center
National Hurricane Center
Miami, Florida

April 20, 2022 6:36 am

The USCRN for the time of its existence, now going on 17 years, supports his conclusions, at least as far as the continental USA is concerned.


April 20, 2022 6:58 am

“No Change”

Isn’t what the establishment wants to hear. They want to hear more of this…

“Antarctic sea ice falls to lowest level since measurements began in 1979”


Yes indeed, it’s far worse than they thought – and that’s what they want to hear.

Call me a skeptic
Reply to  fretslider
April 20, 2022 8:04 am

Of course, let’s continue to use 1979 as the starting point for measuring sea ice, 1979 being the high point for sea ice in the 20th century. Every season afterwards pales in comparison. Cherry pick the start date to guarantee you get your point across. Why not use 2012 as your starting point and measure artic sea ice every year after compared to 2012. Come on Alarmists, wanna play?

Michael in Dublin
April 20, 2022 7:27 am

Those who are honest will take the summary statement and examine it closely:
A year ago, I warned that there was great risk in using computer modelling and immature science to make extraordinary claims. The empirical observations I have reviewed show very gentle warming and no evidence of a climate crisis.

Alarmists with blinkers will ignore this statement and keep calling Prof Humlum “a climate change denialist.” This is dishonest slander.

David Anderson
April 20, 2022 7:41 am

Facts have no affect on the headlines:
Record low Antarctic sea ice extent could signal shift AFP

Gordon A. Dressler
Reply to  David Anderson
April 20, 2022 8:15 am

“Record low” compared to what?

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
April 20, 2022 10:07 am

Yes, the whole “on record” canard – aka a period so short (i.e., the period during which we have actually monitored the “weather”) to be completely meaningless in “climate” terms.

And when “records” exist that make the latest fill-in-the-blank weather “event” seem not so special, then they substitute something along the lines of “in the last fill-in-the-blank years” to cherry-pick the start point to exclude “inconvenient” history.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
April 21, 2022 9:17 am

In every situation and in every context, the warmistas and doomsday alarmists hide inconvenient facts or just plain make stuff up, cherry pick events and stats, refuse to consider contradictory information, change the subject, and substitute logical fallacies and ad hominem insults for logic and reason and truthful discourse.

In short, they do the opposite of what people do who have facts and the truth on their side.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  David Anderson
April 21, 2022 8:56 am

We just passed the warmest part of the year down there.
Why play whack a mole with isolated stats of local conditions at one particular time?
There is no trend in sea ice for the globe, and in the part of the world that was where the panic mongerers were pointing at in decades past, sea ice is not declining but is in fact close to the long term averages, having recovered from some low ice years.

There is always some place with a record cold night, or record warm day, or record lack of snow or ice, or a dry spell, or a flood, or a storm…

This is exactly why the official alarmist narrative had to change to “climate change” from “global warming”.

Because by calling all weather events evidence of a climate crisis, and repeating such ridiculous assertions all the time, every day, the impression can be created that bad things are occurring continually.
It is a big planet, and every kind of weather is going on every day, in some place or another.
But overall, nothing, absolutely nothing, is occurring that is outside of historical norms.
Just about every place has regular weather nearly every day, and a few days a year of very unpleasant conditions.
Just like always.

Last edited 1 year ago by Nicholas McGinley
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  David Anderson
April 21, 2022 9:07 am

Note that claims of “record low Antarctic sea ice” exclude any information prior to 1980, which is well known to be the lowest global temperature over the past 100 years or so.
It was the tail end of several decades of global cooling, even as CO2 was increasing rapidly.

It is absurd to suggest that “record low since 1980” is anything akin to “lowest ever”.

We do have sea ice records and satellite pictures from long before 1980 though. These have been mysterious edited from the climate mafia’s records sometime after the first IPCC report in 1990.
Why would that be? Because those records from the 1960s and 1970s show far lower sea ice than now, as well as huge variability from year to year, demonstrating how rapidly huge amounts of thick ice ca form…amounts that take decades of melting to melt away again.

Capture 6.PNG
Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
April 21, 2022 9:09 am

Sea ice in the prior years:

Sea Ice composite.JPG
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
April 21, 2022 10:12 am

Why would that be? Because those records from the 1960s and 1970s show far lower sea ice than now,”

Actually they don’t, the lowest amount shown there is ~5.8 million sq km whereas typical minima in extent in recent years are ~4, the lowest having been 3.18. As of today the extent is the 8th lowest for the date over the satellite period, all but one of those have been the last 7 years.

Gordon A. Dressler
April 20, 2022 7:51 am

“And while the report finds gentle warming, there is no evidence of dramatic changes, with snow cover stable, sea ice levels recovering, and no change in storm activity.”

Now wait just one moment! . . . how many politicians, including President Joe Biden, have solemnly promised to “follow the science on climate change™ “?

Consequently, all of the AGW/CAGW climate alarmists must now being burning the midnight oil to promptly discredit Ole Humlum’s State of the Climate 2021 report.

After all, they need to keep each of the following memes alive:
— climate change is a current crises
— climate change is an immediate emergency
— climate change is a pending catastrophe
— climate change is a current existential threat
— we only have “x” years left before the “tipping point of no return” (note: you are free to replace “x” by any number between 0 and 9)


Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
April 20, 2022 12:10 pm

We only have “X” years left before we must inflate our economies to pay the bills we created by spending money that DOES NOT EXIST.

How we do that is immaterial as long as we do it somehow and fast. Real wealth traditionally came out of the ground, but now it comes out of the air too.

April 20, 2022 10:43 am

Thank you for all the valuable work. I would like to involve an interesting aspect that is not mentioned in the context and that is that the climate from a technical perspective is most likely to turn down for a long time and the average for 30 years will soon turn down and be declining in the coming years if nothing exceptional happens. It is based on studies of UAH data and of wave propagation according to Elliott’s theories and the Fibonacci series of numbers. The analyzes are written in Swedish, but I think you can understand most of the message via the pictures or translation via, for example, Google.
KR / A. Nyrén, Analyst, Sweden

April 20, 2022 11:48 am

Satellite data shows has been no net warming for 20 years!
See The Solar Activity – Global Cooling Trackers – March . 2022https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/

1. The Solar Activity – Global Temperature Correlation.
     Fig.1.Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron count Schwab cycles and trends with      the Hadsst3 temperature trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)     see References in parentheses ( ) at https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html
The  Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and Activity Peak was reached in 1991. Earth passed the peak of a natural Millennial temperature cycle in the first decade of the 21st century and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. 
Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans the correlative UAH 6.0 satellite Temperature Lower Troposphere anomaly was seen at 2003/12 (one Schwab cycle delay) and was + 0.26C.(34) The temperature anomaly at 2022/03 was +0.15 C (34).There has now been no net global warming for the last 20 years. The Oulu Cosmic Ray count shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.The MSATP at 1991 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay. In Figure 1(5) short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El Ninos. The had sst3gl temperature anomaly at 2037 is forecast to be + 0.05. 
2. Arctic Sea Ice. 
Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.88 million square kilometers (5.75 million square miles) on February 25. The 2022 maximum was the tenth lowest in the 44-year record.
 comment image

                     Fig.2 Arctic Sea Extent  (NSIDC)
Arctic sea ice extent on 04/09/22 (Lt Blue) was the twelfth lowest on record, greater than the 2011 t0 2022 average and a little above to the 2005 amount.


3.Arctic Sea ice volume.
Average Arctic sea ice volume in March 2022 was 21,700 km3. This value is the 6th lowest on record for March, about 2,200 km^3 above the record set in 2017.  See Data at: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/#:~:text=February%202022%20Monthly%20Update,mean%20value%20for%201979%2D2021.
 4.Sea Level

comment image


               Fig. 3 Sea Level  https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/It can now be plausibly conjectured that a Millennial sea level peak will follow  the Millennial solar activity peak at 1991/92 . This may occur at a delay if one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle i.e at 2021/22. Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (18).The rate of increase in sea level from 1990 – present was 3.4 millimeters/year. The net rate of increase from Sept 13th 2019 to Jan. 03 2022 in Figure 3 was 2.3mm/year. If sea level begins to fall by end 2022 the conjecture will be strengthened.
5. Solar Activity Driver and Near term Temperatures
An indicator of temperatures for 5 – 6 months ahead is provided by the SOI graph


                                  Fig.4 30 Day moving SOISustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña (cooling) while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño.(warming) Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. Values at Feb.13 2022 indicate possible cooler than normal NH summer temperatures until June/July 2022. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=SOI

April 20, 2022 12:30 pm

Could be shaping up for a third successive La Nina:

Another, Third Planet-Cooling La Niña? Dr. Ryan Maue Sees Strong Chance Of This Occurrence (notrickszone.com)

so hard to see any return of gorebull wurming for the next year or so

April 20, 2022 4:07 pm

Oh, no, this can’t be! It’s a crisis! ‘They’ said so! A coming ice age, a world-wide famine, global warming, peak oil, rising sea levels, sinking islands (or islands upending), more and more hurricanes, increasingly violent hurricanes, more and worse tornadoes, beaches washing away, the American Southwest becoming so hot it’s unlivable, the American North becoming so cold it’s unlivable, more and worse wildfires, and on and on and on. And when these are debunked, ‘cancel them!’ Refuse to publish anything that goes against what we need to get and keep power! And, by all means, make sure to publicize the insane ravings of an autistic teenager. Makes sense to me…

April 20, 2022 4:55 pm

A Century Of Unprecedented Man-Made Global Warming | Real Climate Science

Global temperatures are right at the 1979-2000 average and Antarctica is more than two degrees below average.

comment image

April 20, 2022 9:08 pm

Shock horror coral spawning is threatening an old bommie off the west coast of Oz-
Death fears for ancient WA coral formation (msn.com)
For once they don’t definitively point the finger at global warming.

Do check the video interview with the young lady from Farmers for Climate Action and all I’d say to that young whippersnapper worried about climate dooming is think about the lesson of Goyder dearie-
Goyder’s Line – Wikipedia
Do you really think you can successfully crop every year one side of that dotted line and not the other my dear?
It’s a big continent full of lizards and snakes and the rain only comes from the surrounding oceans-
Queensland road sign advising no phone signal for 630km shocks internet | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

Reply to  observa
April 20, 2022 9:22 pm

No internet shocks people?

A perfect example of how few Australians travel to our remote inland and coastal remote areas, the majority live on the coastal plains East and South.

Even with an external antenna fitted to my 4WD I experience many zero mobile phone signal areas when travelling, satellite phone recommended or HF Radio.

Reply to  Dennis
April 20, 2022 10:38 pm

They’d be rolling in their graves at the vapours of the touch screen generations-
Official Tom Kruse Website | Home

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