Originally published at Forbes
Tilak Doshi Contributor
I analyze energy economics and related public policy issues.
Lenin observed that “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” It might be a stretch to describe the decades since, say, the fall of the Berlin Wall (1989) to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia (2022) as “nothing happening”. But it certainly seems like the weeks since the Russian invasion on February 24th have telescoped decades’ worth of history into an “inflection point”, a term used by President Biden in his speech to US troops in Poland on March 25th.
The main event is this: the Russians officially notified their gas customers — on March 23th, one day short of a month from its invasion date — that the terms of trade will henceforth be in “roubles for gas” for all “unfriendly” countries (that is, those that launched unilateral financial sanctions on Russia). The EU, dependent on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies (this is higher for Germany, at 60%), has claimed that paying in roubles for gas contracts that have been denominated in euros or dollars is “against contract sanctity”; Germany and France rejected Vladimir Putin’s demand that foreign purchasers of Russian gas pay in roubles as an “unacceptable breach of contract”, adding that the manoeuvre amounted to “blackmail”.
All Out Economic Warfare
From the Russian point of view, the “roubles for Russian gas” move was inevitable. The U.S. Treasury Department announced on February 28th that it would “immobilize” Russian central bank assets that are held in the United States. Sanctions on Russia were widened as the G7 and European Union governments moved on March 2nd to block key Russian banks’ access to the SWIFT international payment system and froze about half the Russian central bank’s $630 billion worth of foreign currency and gold reserves.
Russia’s ex-president Dmitry Medvedev and now deputy head of the security council said: “They are seizing assets of financial institutions and even of the [Russian] Central Bank, and are even talking about foreclosing these assets, about nationalising them in other words. Well, look, this is a war without rules.” As one Washington lawyer put it, the expropriation of sovereign-owned foreign exchange reserves is “the largest hammer in the toolshed” and represents an all out economic war with no holds barred.
Not only does this take away Moscow’s ability to defend the rouble. This precedent will prompt a reconsideration by finance ministries across the globe – particularly in the majority of countries that have not taken sides with the US and EU in sanctioning Russia and that may face a potential conflict with US or EU governments in the future – over where to bank their foreign exchange reserves.
Despite significant pressure from the U.S., the UAE abstained from a vote at the United Nations Security Council to condemn Russia’s invasion. Mohammed bin Zayed, de facto ruler of the UAE and crown prince of Abu Dhabi chose to keep on side with his fellow oil producer Russia in OPEC+. Key OPEC producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE run some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds – will a globalist US or EU foreign policy agenda be a new risk factor in their projections?
The Russian Central Bank announced on 25th March — two days after Putin’s “no roubles, no gas” plan was reported — that it would set a fixed price of 5,000 roubles per gram of gold. Since physical gold in international markets was at $62/gram, the arbitrage price would be (5,000/62) or approximately 80.5 roubles to the dollar. On the interbank market, the rouble traded at about 83 against the dollar, recovering sharply to pre-invasion levels after sinking to a record low of 150 roubles per dollar on 7th March. The Kremlin indicated on 30th March that all of Russia’s energy and commodity exports — crude oil, refined products, metals, timber, wheat and fertilizers — could be priced in roubles.
The ‘Globalists’ vs the ‘Nationalists’
In global commodity markets, it may well be that an “era of regional currencies is coming”, and confidence in the dollar reserve currency is “fading like the morning mist” as Medvedev puts it. At a stroke, the US and EU expropriation of Russian central bank reserves made US dollars and euros worthless to Russia. A new bifurcated financial world order is taking shape, and only tough negotiations or a tit-for-tat escalation will determine the balance between the U.S. and EU-dominated international trade structure that came out of the Bretton Woods system (the “globalists”) and the group of resource-based countries that will have currencies backed by commodity exports (the “nationalists”) and access to payment systems not subject to the whims of international corporations.
Financial sanctions by the globalists on a nationalist Russia led to Putin’s economic “nuclear” counter strike with the “no roubles, no gas” plan. This was a simple message to Germany which has no immediate substitute to piped Russian gas on which it is heavily dependent. In response, Germany’s government on Wednesday activated the first phase of an emergency law to prepare the country for possible gas rationing. Can Russia withstand the loss of rouble or gold-denominated revenues from export shutoffs more easily than Germans without delivered gas molecules for electricity and heat? One can speculate whether Russia will up the ante now by gas supply reductions or shutoffs to Europe if it refuses to pay in roubles (or gold) before winter is fully over or wait for the showdown in winter 2022/23.
Beyond the immediate tactics in the face off over the Russo-German roubles/gas issue is the possible dissolution of the unipolar global financial system under a dollar/euro hegemony and a multipolar one taking shape. The “globalist” camp has within its arsenal the world’s leading banks and financial institutions including the Wall Street hedge funds and multilateral agencies such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Its leading technocratic elites are represented by the likes of the World Economic Forum (the “Davos crowd”), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the UN’s climate change bureaucracy, the Silicon Valley behemoths, and the international mainstream and social media.
The dollar-euro complex is undergirded by the vast US Treasury bills market and under the Biden administration, quantitative easing (QE), modern monetary theory (MMT), trillions of dollars for “build back better” and other debt-financed spending sprees, and the inflationary US Federal Reserve purchases of debt (when others don’t want to lend) seem to be acceptable propositions. The rallying ideas of the globalist camp include the environmental, social and governance (ESG) and “stakeholder capitalism” models but above all is the “fight” against the “climate emergency”.
“Expert advisors” such as the UN Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the IEA have called for the immediate halting of new investments in fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy technologies. But the current oil and gas price surge and Europe’s energy crisis this winter has led the IEA to reverse its usual green posture and ask Russia in September to “do more to increase gas availability to Europe and ensure storage is filled to adequate levels in preparation for the coming winter heating season.”
Unlike the US Federal Reserve and its massive credit-creating powers, the Russian Central Bank will not be, nor is it capable of, supporting its currency beyond what is accruable from its trade balance as a commodity exporter. In the “nationalist” camp, a resource-based global currency system will emerge, with rouble, yuan, and rupee convertibility tied to the value of fossil fuels, agriculture, metals and other primary commodities exported by resource-rich countries and increasingly demanded by resource-poor developing countries. China, India and Russia are exploring alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT inter-bank payments system.
India struck a deal recently for 3 million barrels of crude oil at discounted prices from Russia for delivery in May, and is looking to secure more supplies in the weeks ahead. As one local oil analyst put it, “If Russia is offering oil at a cheaper price and the trade is between rupee and rouble, then looking at the national interest and leaving aside the geopolitical aspect, India should definitely buy the discounted oil”. A move by Saudi Arabia to conduct at least part of its oil sales to China in yuan, for example, could signal the beginning of the end of the petrodollar, one of the pillars that support the status of the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world.
Globalism and Its Critics
There seems little reason for most developing countries to be much engaged with the globalist agenda of the EU’s Green Deal (or Biden’s Green New Deal) or with the “Great Reset” and the “4th Industrial Revolution” espoused by Klaus Schwab of the WEF. As opposed to the globalists’ futuristic visions, the “nationalists” – which includes the vast majority of countries outside the OECD group — occupy rather prosaic “20th century” ambitions: promote economic growth to meet rising aspirations of people for a middle class lifestyle or face the consequences of domestic social and political turbulence. This means continued and rapid growth in fossil fuel use and increased access to affordable energy (electricity and clean cooking fuels such as LPG) for energy-poor citizens. “Renewable energy” technologies, as the Germans have now found out, have not been an alternative to dependence on fossil fuel imports.
For the developing countries — accounting for 80% of the global population — climate treaties to “fight climate change” can be negotiated in global forums so long as the UN ensures financial support needed for “climate mitigation and adaptation”. After last year’s COP26 Glasgow conference, India made clear that its climate commitments are conditional on the availability of $1 trillion in climate finance. This is an order of magnitude above the sums talked about in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Since 2015, it has strived unsuccessfully to reach $100 billion annual target for financial transfers from OECD countries to all developing countries put together. For economic planners in China and India, economic growth takes priority over meeting climate targets. This means going up the energy ladder which today’s developed countries already climbed since the 19th century Industrial Revolution and includes expanded coal mining for power generation.
It would seem that Lenin’s observation that “decades” can happen in “weeks” during particular historical junctures seems apt for events since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The “rules-based international order” bit the dust after the US and EU financial sanctions on Russia essentially expropriated the country’s foreign exchange reserves. To be sure, rumours of the death of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been exaggerated to date, perhaps out of wishful thinking. But we now only have to wait and see if, in the coming weeks, the rise of a multi-polar world with regional currencies and competing commodity trading blocs mark the beginning of the end of dollar hegemony and the long-lived Bretton Woods system.
Follow me on Twitter.
I have worked in the oil and gas sector as an economist in both private industry and in think tanks, in Asia, the Middle East and the US over the past 25 years. I focus on global energy developments from the perspective of Asian countries that remain large markets for oil, gas and coal. I have written extensively on the areas of economic development, environment and energy economics. My publications include “Singapore in a Post-Kyoto World: Energy, Environment and the Economy” published by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (2015). I won the 1984 Robert S. McNamara Research Fellow award of the World Bank and received my Ph.D. in Economics in 1992.
If they can cancel the funds and assets of Canadian Truckers – they will not hesitate to cancel yours.
You have been warned…
And I have bitcoin
They can’t touch that
They get whatever they want, after all it’s theirs, not yours.
Do a bit of reading…
Bitcoin is a bubble, backed by nothing and valued at the amount of the latest transactions. Undermine confidence in Bitcoin and it devalues fast, leaving you with nothing; now tell me again that they can’t touch it.
They are good at undermining.
Except they do it at the System they are backing up.
They managed to propagate the idea that they might take deposit money from all accounts in all banks in Cyprus. They did no such thing, but they convince the People they would – and I bet many people in EU think they did do that.
Then can undermine but they suck at undermining anything outside the System.
fretslide, with all due respect, digital currencies like bitcoin are not real money. They are betting parlors. If you think you won’t lose anything by investing in that, I have a beach in my back yard I’d like to sell you.
The THEY can touch anything they want to, and if this recessionary trend continues – as it appears to be heading that way – people will take out their digital profits very quickly. Are you prepared to deal with that, never mind a government raiding the site?
If you hold Bitcoin outside of an exchange the cannot touch it.
If it becomes really troublesome they will set on the NSA to shut down the computers with bitcoin on them , it will no longer exist , a worn in the programme and poof it’s dead .
Bitcoin is intensely vulnerable. If Governments exerted their wealth to buy enough computing power to seize control of greater than 50% of bitcoin block solutions, they could effectively decide which transactions were legitimate, and block transactions they don’t like.
Do not worry.
All is as safe as in Ft Knox, for some favored, hooligan countries
Nothing is guaranteed for all other countries.
”They” would just “take” your gold, and you would be screwed, because you would have no court to go to get it back
All this is courtesy of the unipolar world, led by the US, with the UK, NATO, EU, etc., in tow.
This was a pretty good analysis, but it left out the fact that the US can afford to buy the elites of the developing world countries that need Russian resources.
ie, they’ll act in the US’ geo-strategic interests, not in their “own” citizens’ interests.
A bit like the elites in the US, in fact.
PS The fiat dollar enables all this. End the Fed!
“ rumours of the death of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency have been exaggerated to date,”
You have to wonder if Bush jnr’s war to prop up dollar hegemony was worth it?
Good question. The U.S. continues to enjoy the benefits from the dollar being the world’s reserve currency. The danger that cracks in the foundation bring everything down is real.
It [the Iraq war] was a bit like a lockdown, delaying the inevitable.
Since we had to ‘print’ a gazillion dollars to fund it, IMHO the Iraq war was a catalyst, not an inhibitor, of US dollar debasement.
“The U.S. continues to enjoy the benefits from the dollar being the world’s reserve currency.”
It’s not of universal benefit to everyone in the US. If you’re in government, or FIRE, or downstream from the MIC (which helps prop it up) then great; if you’re the average Joe who’s seen his rural town hollowed out by the deindustrialisation brought about by the USD’s WRC status driving its exchange value artificially high, then not so much.
The BRICS have a GDP ~ = to the US & 40% of the world’s people as well as
a lot of natural resources, including rare earths. In some cases, they are the
major supplier as we may have the same minerals but aren’t currently
producing. The US & Canadian leaders have cut back on energy production
& it may take time to get them online. It definitely could get interesting!
Old Man Winter,
Now., whilst some of the ‘Nationalist’ [per OP] leaders might not be very pleasant – Poisoner Putin, for example – i ask you to consider which leaders think clearly and strategically, and which seem to turn with the wind – or, I fear, not lead at all?
Yes, it definitely could get interesting!
This dramatic world-wide chaos and destruction is the result of electing Biden and the far-left puppet-masters who control him. If the USA is attacked, either militarily or economically, who is it behind Biden that writes the things for him to say? and what will they say? and how much will any foreign power believe any of it? In a very real sense when Biden attacked the evil oil and gas production, starting the day after assuming the office, and drove the price of both up dramatically, he helped finance the Russian aggression. What a mess.
Biden acts like he was elected by enemies of the State.
Biden acts like a democratically elected law abiding President – unlike Putin, or for that matter, like Trump.
So what? Acting “like a democratically elected law
abiding President” is quite popular among dictators! 😉 😉 😉
Biden has been dishonest and compromised for a long time, whether it be from illegal payments from internal and foreign actors or from parties becoming aware of his sexual deviancy and that of his son who then can control him via threats to expose all of these.
“Law abiding” and “Biden” should not be used in the same breath.
Biden does not act like Trump at all, which based on your sentence structure, your statement implies.
If by democracy you mean ‘one person, one vote’, well the US doesn’t elect presidents like that. If by democracy you mean ‘mob rule’, well that’s how the globalists would like it.
Words matter, definitions matter, grammar matters.
“Words matter, definitions matter, grammar matters”
You and me gonna get along just fine LOL
Trump was elected
You need to accept that simple fact.
and he lost 4 years later. Which is another simple fact that people have trouble accepting.
Chuckle. Biden acts like the demented puppet of authoritarians and all those who despise individual liberty.
Duane, Bidne is borderline dementia. He does what he’s told and says what he’s told to say. He is nothing but a puppet, with his MD wife propping him up with medical “help” if he gets tired. Half the time he wanders off the track of whatever he’s saying.
He is NOT law-abding. He is nothing but a puppet to the democrats, and is about as pathetic as you can get. They got what they wanted and now things are starting to fall apart. Yes, they are. This is going to get worse.
IIRC, Dr. Jill Biden has a doctorate in something like edumaction, or similar.
I, at least, hold a Ship Master’s Medical certificate.
4.5 day Instant Doctor [add cold water to whisky, and stir]!
Still don’t treat myself for more than a hangover!
I think her PhD was in the rarified intellectual no-go zone that most normal people call, “Grade School Gobbledygook”.
Somebody said she was an actual doctor, meaning medical. Don’t remember where I read that. It was a while ago. My bad.
Dr Jill got a Phd in Education.
You can google “Jill Biden Thesis” to read it yourself (it is very short).
It is an embarrassingly sophomoric paper that got her a
With all the Democrat’s projection of Trump violating the Costitution, they are still blind to the fact that the closest they can come to a legitimate complaint about his policies is that he did not act like a dictator and install a nationwide lockdown for Covid-19.
This is either a very subtle and cleverly disguised attempt as sarcasm, or it is the dumbest and wrongest thing uttered to date by Duane, which is really quite an accomplishment for a guy who has been for many years running amongst the finalists for the annual Dumbest Jackass On The Entire Frickin’ Internet world championship.
It cannot be easy to be a perennial favorite given the crowded field for the prize, and yet, by golly, he never fails to disappoint even the most incredulous amongst his detractors.
Take a bow Duane, because only rarely does one comment manage to say so much that is so wrong in so few words.
Lessee hear, Trump decreased regulations and taxes, Biden increased both and shredded the Constitution. Not to mention his enormous grifting. Who is more law abiding?
As in taking over the job of the legislature and declaring all sorts of ‘laws’ unilaterally?
Name one law Trump broke.
You can’t. Trump hasn’t broken any laws, despite the best efforts of the radical Democrats to pin something on him. That would make Trump a law-abiding citizen. Unlike Biden.
Along with being the “Worst President Evah!”, Biden may also be the most “Corrupt President Evah!”. He and Clinton are running neck and neck in that category.
So which laws did Biden break Tom?
Bribery is ok in the Book of Simon?
OK Einstein, when was Biden prosecuted for bribery?
Oh that’s right he hasn’t. Once again Monte the Moron all hot air.
Your guy with the oatmeal for brains (Brandon) crowed on video about he extorted the government in Ukraine to cover for the money his son was collecting.
Ever hear of the Laptop from H-E-Double hockey sticks, batterycarboi?
You really are a total plonker arn’t you. I’ll ask it again. When has Biden been prosecuted for a crime?
It’s not a crime unless you are prosecuted?
Is that really the route you want to go down?
THere’s also influence peddling.
Despite the law stating that oil lease auctions are to be held every quarter, the Biden has yet to hold one, despite being ordered to by the courts.
Impeached twice for his law breaking. Even before becoming President Trump had a long string of court judgements against him, he’s been crook since the days of his draft dodging
Trump was impeached for political reasons, not for any law he broke.
Being taken to court does not mean you are a crook. Anyone can file a lawsuit over anything. I could file a lawsuit against you. Does that make you guilty of anything?
The Russia collusion hoax was proven to be something dreamed up by the Hillary campaign, and people are already being prosecuted over it.
The second impeachment was even more contrived.
You would think that, given how much he has been investigated, Trump would have been charged with SOMETHING by now, right, Tom?
The fact they can’t come up with anything says quite a bit, I think.
Not that Trump ever violated any laws, but those who hate him can’t accept that.
On the other hand Biden has violated many laws regarding corruption and influence peddling.
He’s certainly paid off by enemies of the State
Or possibly as Churchill said about Charles de Gaulle “‘His ‘insolence … may be founded on stupidity rather than malice.'”
What you should be more scared of is Biden is not as far left as some of the other idiots you could have had from the democrats.
So a nuclear armed insane genocidal murderous Putin is to be feared less than Americans who vote with a different party?
Do realize how insane that is? SMH
Do you specialize in strawmen and non-sequitors?
Biden is a marionette.
They say that all the time , the real power behind the oval office will step out
Never happens of course. Yet we know that Trump was the puppet to ever he spoke to last or saw on Fox
Your hatred has made you incoherent.
But his master might be! 😮
Politics is all about being a good salesman & actor.
Brandon always maintained his “Lunch Bucket Joe”
persona & since the 70s, has moved as left as
his constituency would allow. He led the “Borking
Brigade” & the Clarence Thomas lynching & was the
first Dem- albeit through a very racist comment- to
endorse The One! His motto: Go left, young man!
The ability of marketing efforts to overcome his democratic ties to the KKK and organized crime is remarkable.
Like others have said, it’s the handlers, not Biden. In fact, since an overtly socialist candidate, e.g. Bernie in 2016 and 2020, is probably unelectable, the Democrats have been forced to play the Trojan Horse gambit in their primaries, followed up by massive vote fraud in the so-called ‘swing states’ for the actual elections.
Even the ‘fraudit’ in Arizona found no fraud. Nor any of the dozens of election time lawsuits . Not one. Every one has moved on but some can’t. Even when Trump is indicted for financial or incitement crimes they won’t let go.
The irony is that Trump’s been cleared of all the accusations, yet you can’t let go.
Right vs Left, R v D is just a distraction while your corporations and government and MIC continue to plunder your taxes. Enjoy!
“In fact, since an overtly socialist candidate, e.g. Bernie in 2016 and 2020, is probably unelectable”
Oh, he’s electable all right, but the corporate-controlled DNC will never let him win the nomination.
And that’s fine by him, as long as he gets some more lakeside property in return for supporting whatever corporatist “democrat” – Hillary or Joe – gets foisted on the American voter.
Uhhh, this chaos was 100% caused by the insane murderous genocidal Putin, not by the democratically elected, law abiding President Biden.
Of course your idol Trump wishes he could have done what his idol Putin did, and does … including a coup to criminally and violently nullify the 2020 election, as he certainly attempted, but thankfully failed to carry out.
It really is amazing the fantasies those who have been driven insane by their hatred of Trump are able to come up with.
For a long time, Thomas Sowell has been pointing out that liberal schemes usually produce unintended consequences that are worse than the problem they attempt to solve.
Unintended consequences are an unavoidable part of the human condition. Folks who want to ‘fix’ things should bear that in mind. I am reminded of an H.L. Mencken quote:
Right now their unintended consequence is that everything is happening too fast. 20% price jumps in food, doubling of energy prices in a year. Those things people everywhere notice.
The ‘elites’ certainly intended everyone to become poorer and more dependent on government.
The elites depend on the people not doing something about it.
Liberals can fail miserably & give themselves more power cuz their followers
brainwashed themselves into trusting everything they’re told. All the while,
the leaders are setting themselves up as dictators. Given how long this has
been going on & the severity of Wuhan flu controls, Russiagate, Hunter’s
laptop, etc., I’d bet the failures are their goal not just bumbling mistakes.
I don’t know who are all the people involved. Only time will tell.
I’d be willing to bet that there are some big financial players there – globalist banks, investment firms and international financiers will be involved somewhere.
So many are hiding in plain sight, Soros, Schwab, Gates, WEF, etc. I wonder who are pulling their strings.
Brandon was installed as a result of the color revolution in the USA, circumventing the Constitution.
Oh right. Funny no judges have found in favour of your jurisprudence. Thats because you are a car boot lawyer
The evidence is out there, you just have to remove the mud pies covering your eyes.
No judge has ruled on the evidence. For the most part the judges have punted and found any excuse they can to not look.
Like your clean and green energy ideas.
Trump was a fully-paid up member of the MIC too.
He didn’t start any wars, I’ll say that for him.
But he pushed for more funding for “our big beautiful military” just like all the others.
When is it going to dawn on “small-government conservatives” that the military is the very essence of command-economy, big-government?
Both WWII and WWIII were started because the bad guys were convinced that the West wouldn’t fight back.
Russia calls on BRICS members to integrate payment systems
Pushing China, India and Russia together is a very bad outcome.
Like many others before February 24th, I thought Putin’s threats against Ukraine were mostly bluff.
In hindsight, I now think that in the months before the invasion, Putin had consciously chosen to throw in his lot with the other anti-globalist nationalist nations, China especially.
And, as part of what his thinking many have been, if the US and the EU then declared full economic war on Russia as a consequence of his invasion, he and the Russian people were up to the task of fighting the globalist Davos crowd with help from China.
It’s possible he knew with some certainty China would support him if he invaded and gambled that the other BRIC nations would at least stay neutral.
Putin’s response to the ‘push’ may have already occurred well before Russian troops crossed the Ukraine border and was an essential part of his risk versus reward calculations for invading Ukraine.
I’m sure Putin looked at all his options, and these monetary moves may be part of the plan to attack the old world order.
Putin and those who support him should be careful though, because as we have all seen, Putin’s plans for Ukraine have gone seriously awry and his monetary plans may do the same. Be careful what you wish for.
As for China and India becoming fast friends, I don’t see that happening.
India has a few close examples, such as Tibet and the Punjab, that should keep them very uneasy about letting down their guard around China
Nice thoughtful summary. It is a game of musical chairs and we will see who sits where when the music stops again..
Great analogy. Just imagine Biden trying to do that. He can’t even find his way off a podium without being led. The US has incompetent leadership right now
Quote:“In Germany, they call it “Day X”. Businesses up and down the land are making contingency plans for what is seen as a growing likelihood that Russian gas will stop flowing into Europe’s biggest economy.
“It would be a disaster – one which would have seemed almost unthinkable just two months ago, but which right now feels like a very realistic prospect,” the owner of a hi-tech mechanical engineering company in western Germany said. The firm produces everything from battery cases for electric cars to train clutch systems.
I did a quick search and did some of my infamous BoE calcs – decimal points be damned
Germany imports 50Billion cubic metres of Russian gas = about 50% of all the gas it uses
Considering the total amount of gas used in Germany:
German annual gas usage was 1.1 Billion MWh of energy
Meanwhile, the German windmill fleet produced 0.14 Billion MWh
(Feel free to find out what their solar panels made – if it was 10% of the windmills’ output, my name is Chuckles – Prince of Chuckles)
On which planet was Engywendywindywendy any sort of Good Idea?
Germany gets 24% of its electricity from coal and 12% from gas. link
I wonder how many underutilized coal power plants there are. Could they replace all their gas fueled electricity generation with coal?
Could some other users of natural gas switch to electricity? Yes, I do know it’s way more expensive. They’re socialist inclined, they could give subsidies. 🙂
If the gas taps were turned off abruptly, what could they do to adapt? I’m guessing they could do a lot.
Yes. Many of the coal plants actually spend their time exporting power.
“Could some other users of natural gas switch to electricity?”
And where does that additional electricity cone from?
Europe is committing economic suicide in order to keep Ukraine a Western vassal (as opposed to it returning to Russian vassalage).
I feel sorry for the average Ukrainian and Russian conscript caught up in this Makinder/Wolfowitz meatgrinder.
Sorry this is a very flawed perspective. Russia, with an economy smaller than that of New York City, cannot force a restructuring of the entire world financial system. Their rubles-only policy will fail, because if they truly do stop exporting oil and gas for failure to pay in rubles, they will destroy what little is left of the Russian economy. All they produce is oil, gas, and vodka that are easily produced elsewhere, and weapons that fail miserably in a real warfare.
In any case there is no such thing as a “nationalist economy” that could somehow displace the entire world financial system. Even the world’s largest economy, the US, could not carry that off.
Uhm, if they can’t access the dollars they receive in payment for their oil and gas, then what is their incentive to deliver it?
NONE. The damage to their economy is already done or will be soon.
That’s why they now demand payment in rubles. And the consequences be damned, to themselves let alone others.
They have no incentive to be nice now – rather the opposite in fact. Russia has always been ruthless and self-centered, can’t imagine why that will change in wartime.
The incentive is that failure to deliver is causus belli and exclusion.
Russia has resources and Russia is not woke. Hitherto, the globalists forgave Russia even the Syrian adventure. It was only when he refused to go woke that they took any notice.
How the Putin question will be resolved in anybody’s guess.
[Russian] Nickel will be a problem
Also other key metals. Palladium and platinum, and tungsten immediately come to mind.
Duane is famous around here for being an uninformed blowhard.
And that’s putting it nicely.
Except Russia isn’t doing it alone. India is already paying Russia. China is financing Africa. That’s more than half the worlds population already. Please open your eyes.
China tieing up countries in debt is far more relevant. It means they grab the resources in payment.
And that’s your whole view of what’s happening, is it? Just stick your head back into the sand and wait for things to return to normal? What if it doesn’t? What if all of the customers that Russia and China have for oil, gas, steel, fertiliser, grain and other commodities just start paying in roubles and yuan? What are you going to do then Duane?
The world would struggle without Russian oil and gas. The Russians would be able to maintain their own supply. They have relatively little import dependence, and can live without Chanel handbags and Mercedes. Their only significant food imports are fruit, nuts and sugar, obtainable as in the past from Cuba. Sure, living standards would take a hit. But not as bad as in Europe, I suspect.
Just to point out in reference to your post. Duane—the US intelligence family has recently admitted to exaggerating and outright lying about Russia to “get inside Putin’s head” Shoe fit???
New York City’s GDP is mostly transfers of over-leveraged financial assets propped up by fed money creation and producing media content of dubious merit.
Correct – New York’s “economy” is a “Big Short” economy in which a stripper can buy five houses. All on paper.
Uh, huh. Like the Kalashnikov (a/k/a AK-47).
The post does not mean “nationalist ecenomy” as a single nation vs the world. It is referring to nations acting in their own best interest instead of having governments pushing for the globalist agenda.
I think that is a good way to view it, however the author is taking a more long term perspective. There were people in the 1980s who said a similar thing about China: “There is nothing to fear about Chinese low wage labor; its economy is 1/80th that of the United States and it has no infrastructure and an abysmal education system, etc.”
The Russian Strategy is quite simple:
Dumping, in economics, is a kind of injuring pricing, especially in the context of international trade. It occurs when manufacturers export a product to another country at a price below the normal price with an injuring effect.
So, all they need to do is offer oil at a lower price in exchange for rubles or gold. Lets say the Russians are offering oil for $50 a barrel and in the West it is $100. In that case the strategy may be to embargo it. However, the non-US aligned international arbitrage markets will immediately subvert that. By taking dollars, converting them to gold, buying Russian oil at $50/ bar. and reselling it to the West for double the price. And then you have the knock-on effects… of factories, economies and nations using cheaper Russian oil to produce goods and agricultural products.
If the United States does not do something pro-active with is current dominant position, momentum and inertia will work against it. And like the Chinese example I noted above, time and patience will produce the desired Russian goal.
Duane, you have outdone yourself with this steaming heap of weapons grade buffoonery.
You somehow have made a comment with more falsehoods than words.
The crazy thing is, you seem to manage these herculean feats of half-witted doltishness with minimal effort…your every thought somehow a complex assemblage of layered nincompoopery.
New York City has a gigantic economy, being it hosts the headquarters of a large number of the world’s largest corporations, the financial center of the universe, i.e. Banking, Wall Street etc, the bulk of the entire advertising industry, is the de facto hub of world communications, has the largest real estates markets, both residential and commercial, in the world, not to mention the worlds largest business district.
Journalism, publishing, fashion, the arts, health care, insurance, digital media, architecture…
The huge size of the economy accrues to NYC because industries that exist across the country and around the world are headquartered there.
Big as it is, NYC and even New York State are far smaller economies that Russia.
Russia’s economy is nearly twice that of NYC.
Russia is among the world leaders in both nat gas and oil production.
We are too, but we use all of ours and then some…they export most of what they produce.
It is myth that Russian exportation of vodka is some outsized part of their economy.
It is not even in the top ten. Not in the top twenty neither.
They do however produce and export a large percentage of the world’s total consumption of a long list of essential raw materials.
Thinks like aluminum, coal, refined petroleum products, iron, wheat, fertilizers (this is huge, and we could conceivably all be paying thousands of dollars a year more for food, EACH, due to our banning this one group of commodities),nickel, lumber, copper wire, refined copper, uranium, radioisotopes, synthetic rubber…and not to mention such things as Gold (3rd largest exporter in the world) and diamonds.
Bad enough that you know so little.
Worse that even though this is the internet, you continue to post such idiotic jackassery day after day.
Do you ever read?
You could improve your mind without reading though.
Here is what you do: Before you post anything, just ask the janitor in your office building, any random pimply-faced coffee shop clerk, or even the guy driving the garbage truck if you can please pick their brain.
Then delete that nonsense you dreamed up out of nowhere… BEFORE you post it.
Stop making the entire world stupider.
Duane looks at GDP and thinks that’s enough.
Here’s the thing – much of the West’s GDP is leveraged off the USD WRC status. The Fed buys allied countries’ debt, keeping their interest rates low and government spending cheap, while the whole world buys USD in order to buy fossil fuels.
If countries no longer need USD to buy fossil fuels, there goes the biggest demand for USD, and foreigners will either exchange them for commodities, hard assets, or othe currencies, weakening the value of the USD and Americans’ purchasing power.
ie, the West’s GDP will collapse, because their currencies will collapse relative to commodity and resource exporters currencies.
THIS is why the West is so desperate to “save” Ukraine from Russia – not because they care about maintaining Ukrainians’ “freedom” (the place is a corrupt, authoritarian banana satrapy, and has been since the collapse of the USSR) but because they fear Russia’s resources will no longer require USD to purchase.
Excellent, thought-provoking piece.
U.S. and EU monetary and fiscal profligacy will have profound consequences (they already have— see inflation).
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop”
-attributed to Herbert Stein
Didn’t Newton has a similar law?
Newtonian laws of motion applied to economics?
Now there’s an afternoon’s worth of thought experiments.
The problem for US creditors is that they will not get value for their dollar holdings. The problem for the US is that it will no longer be able to pile up more international debt. It may take a while to manifest as the first recourse is selling overseas assets.
Natural gas is why Russia invaded Ukraine. This all started when a massive deposit was found in Ukraine in 2010. Russia began fomenting the “separatists” almost immediately.
Ukraine natural gas would be too much competition, the price to Europe would drop.
They tried to nab the area (around Slovyansk) in 2014. Even though they officially stayed out, Russian “volunteers” don’t have personal tanks.
The so-called separatist movement failed to take over the area with the natural gas.
There will be a new offensive aimed at taking it over and then Russia would call for a ceasefire and peace along those lines.
It’s always been about the natural gas.
You’ll forgive me if I remain sceptical of your entire ‘thought’ process from beginning to end. As someone mentioned before; it doesn’t matter how much oil and gas you have if you can’t sell it – getting hold of Ukraine oil and gas really wasn’t the reason – we will see what happens in Ukraine, but I don’t think you are correct in this. Russia doesn’t need the Ukraine resources but it will need peace and invading Ukraine was not the way to do it – there will not be peace in Ukraine now, even under the barrels of the guns.
James Baker et al gave firm assurances and they were all…. broken.
An uncomfortable fact, but very true, nonetheless.
“Biden asked for a ‘minor incursion’ into Ukraine and now he’s got one “https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10539505/Biden-asked-minor-incursion-Ukraine-hes-got-one-writes-JIM-GERAGHTY.html?src=ilaw
Let’s hope the puppeteers in Washington are up to it.
That seems like a major part of it, “but wait there’s more.”
You make a very interesting statement and I would like to know what “massive deposit” of natural gas was found in Ukraine in 2010? Tell us more.
Russia has immense natural gas resources and I can not imagine, although I may be incorrect, that even a large discovery in Ukraine would make a difference to Russia unless their goal is control by way of energy access. I know that consultants were invited to investigate the potential for deep, low-permeability natural gas beginning more than 20 years ago.
I shall look for a US Geol. Survey report on gas resources for Ukraine to try to answer my own questions. Do you have a reference for the “massive deposit” statement?
Who, where, how deep, what geology? Is it proved by production or just inferred?
Potentially, I believe there may be large deposits under the Black Sea (only partially owned by Ukraine) – Turkey announced not long ago that they had found a large gas field, I believe, but not too sure of the details.
It’s worth remembering that threats of NATO expansion into Ukraine, along with continued US meddling in Ukrainian politics and western Ukrainian attacks on Ukraine’s Donbass region (allied with Russia,) led to war. https://rumble.com/vwsh2k-ukraine-on-fire-2016-oliver-stone-director-igor-lopatonok-mirror.html
“western Ukrainian attacks on Ukraine’s Donbass region (allied with Russia)” – Some people remember that the Donbass isn’t really allied with Russia, it was invaded by Russia years ago, once they got away with using the same tactics in Georgia. And the only reason countries asked to join NATO was Russias expansion into neighboring countries.
The Donbass tried to break away from Ukraine after the Ukronazis violently overthrew Yanukovitch (whom the East had overwhelmingly voted for).
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
Indeed, US and ZATO MIC thinktanks have been putting forth whitepapers for decades discussing how to destabilise Russia’s “near-abroad” and bring those Russia-friendly countries into the Western orbit.
Conduct endless ZATO troop exercises right on Russia’s borders. Instigate colour revolutions and install pro-Western satraps. Keep extending ZATO membership Eastwards.
… and here we are.
Attention Globalists and Neo-Cons – clean-up needed in aisles 1 through …
The chapter on the fall of the rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational.
Miss Prism :The Importance of Being Earnest – Oscar Wilde
The realities here are that payments in same day Federal Funds all go via New York: these are the real petrodollars. Russia’s gas income from Europe is however denominated in euros, even if the oil is dollar priced. A move to rouble payment may avoid those mechanisms for the final payment, but in order to secure roubles with which to pay, they must either be issued by Western banks in a money printing programme, which is unlikely to be acceptable, or they must be purchased from Russia – using dollars and euros in the forex market. So Russian banks end up with the same dollars and euros, and get the roubles they passed out back again when payment is made.
The only way the Russians can get value for their exports is through spending their cash balances on imports and overseas investments. If Russia really wants the Rouble to be an international currency then they need to be able to pay for those in roubles. Being paid in roubles does not solve that. It only provides an opportunity to earn some banking fees while the dollars and euros continue to pile up unspent because of trade embargoes.
Just had an idea—a new paper currency of hockey stick graphs!
Maybe a new currency made of hockey pucks…Puckcoin.
Best part of my plan…easy as all get out to freeze someone’s assets.
Well, this is really not a surprise, but it is very disturbing that the person in the White House is not someone capable of stopping a crash. If you don’t remember the mess that involved the housing bubble and credit default swaps and how that game of cards fell to pieces, I do.
I did wonder how long it would take before things began to slowly unravel. Unfortunately, it was not as long as I thought it might be.
Good article. Thanks for posting it.
Sooner or later, economics will alway trump politics.
You can take that to the bank.
Absolutely. I keep telling people I know to stock up on stuff that they like because it almost went missing last year and it can certainly happen again. Whoever heard of Claussen’s Pickles NOT being in the cooler at the grocery store?
Heavens to Betsy!
Not the Clausen’s?!
No one knows how to soak a cucumber in brine like those guys!
Assuming the bank hasn’t been closed.
The EU spends billions of dollars per week on energy imports from Russia.
Russia is still exporting natural gas to europe. Even through Ukraine. Gazprom and GazpromBank are still unsanctioned.
How much of this conflict is show and for what purpose?
Do you have any idea what you are talking about?
They get a large percentage of all the energy they consume from Russia.
Why would Russia stop sending it?
Why would Ukraine interrupt it? (“Please send aid. In the meantime, we are cutting off your economic lifeblood. So solly!”)
Why would the EU deliberately starve and freeze and put out of a job, millions of their own people?
the coming global food price shocks will make this round of energy price inflation just the warmup round to what is about to befall the world. the 3rd world is going is be hit especially hard in this global food crunch.
The underlying factors center on disrupted Black Sea port exports of summer and fall harvested crops as World War 3 will continue now into the summer with increased Russian ferocity on vital Black Sea and grain producing regions in the south and east of Ukraine. When the annual Ukrainian grain and sunflower oils exports fail to make market starting this August, and Russia’s harvests are restricted by Black Sea bottlenecks and greatly increased maritime shipping insurance costs to load at Black Sea ports, world food prices will skyrocket. then places like Egypt, Pakistan, and much of Africa will be thrown into turmoil of unaffordable food for over a billion people.
As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the coming food and already energy scarcities, these are rapidly accelerating and compressing the Globalists’ plan of original “sustainability” induced impacts on the world’s populations from a slow steady controlledburn of humanity in to a wild, uncontrollable conflagration.
It won’t be just food products, Joel. It will be things like bath tissue, kleenex, paper towels – all paper products, in fact – and shortages again of things like soap, shampoo and toothpaste, laundry detergent and dish soap never mind toothbrushes. All the off-the-shelf stuff we take for granted now — just poof!
to be blunt, shortages of kleenex and paper towels, or more likelytheir doubling or tripling in price, is really a First World problem. Wheat, corn, cooking oils, and other bulk commodity traded foods are globally essential.
Some things are conveniences, some things are necessities.
Good article. thank you Tilak Doshi.
Glad you liked it Allan!
The more popular spelling is Ruble
Ruble Definition & Meaning – Merriam-Webster
Rouble Definition & Meaning – Merriam-Webster
I did wonder about that. I’ve been spelling it both ways but I’ll settle on ruble now.
Рубль is actually the most popular spelling.
As always, Tilak, your essays are beautifully researched, written to be read and on the mark. An area not explored yet by anyone, though, is bulging below the surface. The EU, US, Canada, NZ, and Australia have been dumbing down education K-PhD for 3 generations and pushing socialist “thinking”.They’ve targeted destruction of family and undermined and “repurposed” ‘free enterprise’ to serve a globalist NWO.
This has NOT been happening in Russia, the Middle East, India (now the only only free member of the British Commonwealth!), China and the Third World resource rich countries you refer too. Even under communism in the USSR education, particularly science engineering and mathematics was top notch (Sputnik, Gagarin, hydrogen bomb only one year after the US detonated its first one). They continue with this tradition while we continue with destroying ours.
Because I have a very smart grandson, I’ve been exploring education alternatives in India (Institutes of tech and science, Mumbai and Delhi) and Japan (Tokyo and Kyoto). They are all remarkably cheap for foreign students and even offer scholarships for grad school!
Gary, glad you liked my post — Indian IITs are very competitive. But spending time in India or Japan would be a fantastic option, your grandson might enjoy it very much!
And yet another apologist for Putin appears on WUWT. It is impressive that Mr Dhoshi managed to write an entire essay blaming “globalists” for all of Russia’s troubles while
almost entirely ignoring the fact that Russia has illegally invaded another country. By my count the word “globalist” appears 8 times in the post about while the word “Ukraine” appears only twice. And nowhere is there any mention of the war crimes and atrocities that Russia has committed during the ongoing invasion. Apparently that is all fine as long as India gets to buy cheap oil from Russia. So it is good to know what Mr. Dhoshi’s values most -cheap oil.
Hitler’s Germany invades dozens of countries killing millions and with a Holocaust thrown in.
The West’s response: the Marshall plan, massive investment to rebuild Germany, Werner von Braun death camp master and killer of tens of thousands almost becomes president of the United States 🇺🇸.
Putin invades Ukraine, kills a few hundred civilians.
West’s response: shut down Russia’s economy, steal from Russia’s bank accounts, total isolation of the country, West rehabilitates Adolf Hitler agreeing that he was right that Russians are untermenschen.
Can you explain this difference in response?
I am not sure what version of history you are talking about but where is the evidence that Werner von Braun “almost” became President of the USA? Given that the US constitution stops anyone born outside the US from becoming President and Werner von Braun never ran for any political office that has to be one of the most ludicrous rewriting of history every seen. Any then you go one better by minimising the damage done by Putin’s invasion “a few hundred civilians”. Firstly the death toll is significantly higher, there are millions of refugees in addition to the actual numbers killed plus of course the destruction of cities by shelling etc etc.
It is perfectly possible to be against both Hitler’s Germany and the invasion of the Ukraine. Nobody as far as I can see has been rehabilitating Adolf Hitler.
“I am not sure what version of history you are talking about but where is the evidence that Werner von Braun “almost” became President of the USA?”
Werner von Braun never got close to being president. Some people were pretty happy with what he did for the U.S. space program, but that’s not the same as being popular enough to win the presidency, not to mention he wasn’t eligible to run anyway.
I don’t know where Phil got that, either. It’s not true no matter where he got it.
“Putin invades Ukraine, kills a few hundred civilians.”
Do you really think that is the number of civilians Putin has killed?
The numbers are much higher. They just haven’t had time to dig the bodies out of the rubble yet to count them.
Making excuses for Putin. You should stick to climate science.
THe Marshall plan was after the war.
Werner von Braun never ran any death camps, he spent the war building rockets.
He could never have been president as he is not a natural born citizen.
Putin has killed 10’s of thousands of civilians, so far.
The only thing I see is your utter disconnect from reality.
Izaak, so US and EU seize $0.6 trillion worth of a country’s foreign exchange and gold holdings, impose a hundred sanctions on commercial and banking activities, close down SWIFT for international transactions. With me so far? Tilak’s essay was not an apology for anyone. It simply stated what the fallout of it all would be for the dollar as the world’s base currency for international commerce. What did you want it to say?
For me, I only stated the obvious, that while the West has been dumbing down its population to make it obedient to the Great politico-economic Reset planned by your betters at Davos and the UN, Russia has maintained it’s traditional high standards of education. No apologies here? Frankly, I’m worried about this serious fundamental asymmetry in intellectual abilities that we are on the wrong end of.
Oh yeah the invasion of Ukraine. Yes, this would be a rich topic for discussion, but that wasn’t the purpose of this essay and discussion. Re-read it and you hopefully will see your blind spot and how you jumped off topic.
Tilak’s essay is completely missing context about why the US and EU have acted the way that they do. A better start might be “rather than risk nuclear war by sending troop to help Ukraine the US and EU imposed financial sanctions”. Instead if Tilak just talks about “globalists” without say who exactly is a globalist, what the term means and makes it sound like these globalists decided for no good reason to try and damage Russia’s economy.
Similarly what is the “great politico-economic reset” being planned by my betters? Or is that just another conspiracy theory geared towards those whose intellectual abilities have been dumbed down?
Oooo, using the slur “conspiracy theory” to do your heavy lifting for you.
Listen, you clueless apologist for Western aggression: “our” MIC thinktanks have been publishing whitepapers for decades theorising how to destabilise Russia’s near-abroad to bring its allies into the Western orbit – extend NATO ever Eastward, demonise Russia, spend billions instigating colour revolutions and installing Western satraps, conduct endless military exercises on Russia’s borders, supply vast quantities of munitions to the Ukronazis so they can kill pro-Russian Ukrainians in the Donbass…
… and here we are.
Putin is a poor victim of western aggression, so he reacts by murdering tens of thousands of innocent people.
How many innocent Russians were killed by Ukrainians before this war began?
Your version of reality is delusional.
By ‘Russians’, are you including Russian-speaking Ukrainians from Donetsk and Luhansk as well?
Isaak I really meant it about rereading. Putting a finer point on it will not be understood if you are going to insist on changing what the subject was about, infusing it with emotion or even intent of the EU and US. It matters not who the bad guys are or why the EU and US did what they did. The resultant currency implications remain exactly the same. Russia was left only one choice (of currency) in securing payment for products and the West needs his gas, oil, grain, fertilizer Nickel …. and an unintended ‘own goal’ was scored on the USD as a medium of international commerce, particularly as “petrodollars”.
Putin could well be satin incarnated but I haven’t heard anyone accuse him of being stupid. Russia is a nation of chess players and Putin’s speeches are salted with quotes from Shakespeare, Dickens, Goethe, Proust, Nietzsche, Robert Burns, the Bible … all of which probably isn’t understood by today’s graduates in the West. Hence my worry about about dummies matching wits and stratagems with real educated people.
Re the “Reset” by globalist billionaires: I’ll let the conspirators speak for themselves. It’s all over the internet but I chose Yahoo news because I reasoned that many of the better reporting might be from sources you wouldn’t read (I listened to the Davos speeches myself)
You appear to be a bright young fellow, but that you’ve never heard of the Great Reset troubles me! The chances that they will pull this thing off, therefore seems much greater than I had thought.
why incarnate as satin, why not silk, nylon, or cotton? 😉
I love it! Yes indeed! Along with my own lapses in spelling and typos, I also am plagued by my aggressive spell checker, although I admit this looks like one of mine.
I’m hoping that the seized assets will be given to Ukraine after the war to pay for reconstructing the cities that Putin has razed.
This makes Russia dependent on China, which will grow at Russia’s expense.
Putin is looking weaker every day.
Biden, the leader of NATO, is nowhere to be seen.
Thank God for the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians! They are fighting for all of us. If they go down, then the rest of us are next. Why would the bully stop when he is winning? The Ukrainians need to stop the bully. We need to give the Ukrainians all the help they need to do this job. As fast as possible
Putin is getting weaker and the Ukriainians are getting stronger thanks to increased support by NATO countries, but this support needs to be ramped up to the highest level right now and the Ukrainians can go on the offense and push Putin back to his borders.
Help me out here.
The Ukronazis are “winning”, they’ve got more armoured vehicles than when they started because they captured so many Russian ones…
… and yet they’re desperate for more tanks (and everything else) from the West.
One minute White supremacists are the civilised world’s greatest threat, the next we’re supplying them with munitions in Ukraine.
Mind you… one minute Al Qaeda are the greatest threat to Western civilisation, the next minute we’re supplying them with munitions so they can overthrow the secular Assad.
That should tell you something about the “morality” of the Western NWO-types.
Well, as I said just above, I think your version of reality is delusional. You have things just backwards. You are seeing what you want to see, not what is there.
Tom, there are about a dozen Nazi organizations in Ukraine – here’s one that you’ve probably heard about in the news, but not that they are nazis. It is a wiikipedia entry because you may not believe other more forthright sources under the circumstances these days.
Wikipepia had a some 8-10 full sepatate topics on the subject but there was a massive deletion and softening a few days after the Russian Invasion. They now infer they are ‘neo-nazi’ to make them more cuddly I presume, but there is nothing neo about them. They counted among some of the most notorious guards even in German concentration camps outside Ukraine and a number of them were tried and executed by Israel and Germany. There were even several found in Canada in the hunt in the decades after the war.
I was born before the war so naturally was more interested than many in its history. I traveled extensively in Ukraine a couple of decades ago from the Karpaty (border area with Hungary) to the Russian border. I’m fond of the regular Ukranian people and grew up with second generation of emigres who came over after The Holodomor .
Like the climate change politics and science much is not as one is led to believe. I recommend one take the trouble to personally research everything of importance. Even the good guys aren’t always perfect.
There are more Nazis in the US than there are in Ukraine. By your logic Putin should invade us next.
I think there is a reasonable chance at the end of this that China carves off a large piece of Russia
Yes, the best-laid plans of mice and men sometimes go awry.
Let’s hope the best-laid plans of Biden go awry, too. We’ll make that happen early next year, God willing.
Two Delusional Leaders: Biden and Putin. Both are extremely damaging to human society. Both need to be removed from power as soon as possible; Biden through the impeachment process, and Putin through whatever process is available.
Let’s be real here. While it’s possible Biden could be impeached (should Republicans take the house) Biden will not be removed via impeachment if for no other reason that nobody wants President Kamala. Not to mention Republicans, even if they take the Senate, won’t have enough Senate seats on their own to succeed in removal. The best case scenario on that score is that Republicans take congress and block Biden’s agenda.
You have a better shot of seeing Biden removed via the 25th due to his ever more obvious dementia. But again, that leaves us with the unwanted scenario of having Kamala getting off her knees and becoming President.
I have been criticizing European sanctions for years, and now again I see no upside.
Why would we want to obey the Ukrainian “leader”?