Wrong, Denver Post, Fires and Floods Aren’t Increasing

From ClimateREALISM

By Linnea Lueken -April 5, 2022

The Denver Post recently ran an article claiming global warming will cause more severe wildfire seasons, as well as more severe floods in the Western United States. Data indicates that these claims are false; wildfires in the West are not due to climate change, and there is no trend of increasing or decreasing precipitation in the U.S.

The article, titled “Fire and rain: West to get more one-two extreme climate hits,” quotes researchers who published a study analyzing climate model “fire weather” simulations and precipitation projections alongside presumed continued climate change.

The Denver Post writes:

“The one-two punch of nasty wildfires followed by heavy downpours, triggering flooding and mudslides, will strike the U.S. West far more often in a warming-hopped world, becoming a frequent occurrence, a new study said.”

It is first vital to point out these claims aren’t based observations or recorded data but rather climate model projections of future fire and flood weather conditions, using the same models and warming scenarios that fail to replicate current and past temperatures. Climate Realism has repeatedly demonstrated that climate models are flawed and their projections cannot be trusted, herehere, and here, for example.

The study authors themselves admitted they used modeled “worst-case” warming scenarios, which are highly unlikely to come to pass. To justify using extreme scenarios the researchers said they were “unable at the time to use simulations of more likely scenarios with some moderate emission reductions.” The researchers asserted even moderate warming scenarios would result in a “four-fold increase in fire and flooding” in the Pacific Northwest. They provided no evidence or supporting reasons to back this assertion, and there are none.

The Denver Post spoke to a scientist not involved in the study, who indicated global temperature and climate models may not work at the local level in the way the study is applying them. Despite offering this statement of caution, ever happy to toe the line, he then reverses himself and unscientifically says, “[s]till, the results make sense.”

Real world data shows these projections are implausible.

The American West and Pacific Northwest in particular, have been prone throughout history to dry and wet seasons due to the oscillating nature of Pacific weather patterns, called El Niño and La Niña. As described in Climate Realism articles here and here, for example, those weather patterns are completely natural, and occurred long before the industrial revolution. These cycles can last for years and there is no sign that they are being enhanced in severity.

(Note: This paragraph below has been updated by the original author since the original post to clarify it. -AW) Drought is a major factor for the ignition of wildfires. Data from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Palmer Drought Severity Index show that drought severity in the Southwest, including California and Colorado, has been largely stable over the past hundred years (Figure 1), but recent modest increase in drought conditions are well within the range of historic natural variability. This can clearly be seen using regional proxies going back hundreds of years in a 2007 E.R.Cook et al. study on North American drought (Figure 2), as detailed in this Climate Realism post here.

Figure 1: Drought Severity in the Southwestern United States, 1895-2020, from NOAA (2021) data, chart generated by EPA and found at https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/southwest.

This data does not suggest that wildfire frequency or severity should increase due to drought conditions.

Climate at a Glance: Wildfires thoroughly debunks the claim that wildfires are on the rise in the United States, demonstrating in the chart below that these fires are much less severe than they were in the beginning of the 20th century, with only recent climbs.

Figure 2: Acres burned in U.S. wildfires since 1926.

Recent upticks in uncontrolled fires in Western states like California, Washington, and Oregon, are most likely due to decades of poor forest management. State and federal governments have refused to take an active role in removing dry underbrush and dead trees for almost 40 years now, as explained in a Climate Realism article, here, leading to a dangerously high fuel load which can easily light in the right conditions.

Taken as a whole, the available observed data provides no reason for believing that the kind of modest warming the earth has experienced over the century will suddenly lead to catastrophic wildfire and flood conditions for the American West. The Denver Post article is long on unsupported claims and short on facts. Faulty computer model projections are no replacements for evidence and data on climate trends, and present trends aren’t alarming in the least.

Linnea Lueken

https://www.heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/linnea-lueken

Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy. While she was an intern with The Heartland Institute in 2018, she co-authored a Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Debunking Four Persistent Myths About Hydraulic Fracturing.”

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ResourceGuy
April 5, 2022 10:02 am

At least Hunter is protected from climate change and fires and floods at the rental mansion in Malibu beach.

Secret Service paying over $30K per month for Malibu mansion to protect Hunter Biden – ABC News

Reply to  ResourceGuy
April 5, 2022 10:48 am

That is the Secret Service rental house. They have to be close to hunter.

czechlist
Reply to  ATheoK
April 5, 2022 12:00 pm

which doesnt mean having to LIVE close by. I know local LEOs who live 20 miles from their stations. Do they have “maids” and “chefs” as well?

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  czechlist
April 5, 2022 12:52 pm

which doesnt mean having to LIVE close by. 

Yes, actually, it does. I can’t imagine anything more useless than a protective detail stationed 20 miles, or even 2 miles from their subject. I have no use for Hunter, but your claim is just daft.

IAMPCBOB
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
April 9, 2022 4:49 pm

They were offered ample space IN the mansion, but refused. So, Hunter offered to rent them space where they are now.

Bruce Ranta
April 5, 2022 10:12 am

Fig 1 does not show decreasing drought. It shows a slight increase in drought from the early 1980’s. It certainly does not show that it’s been getting wetter. Whether it’s statistically significant, I don’t know.

Derg
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 5, 2022 10:26 am

No kidding, meanwhile our desert’s are shrinking.

william Johnston
Reply to  Derg
April 5, 2022 11:13 am

Probably that darn globull warming thing. Oh wait. Never mind.

Reply to  william Johnston
April 5, 2022 12:26 pm

More global warming…  As I recall, the French and German grape crops failed due to cold last year. Again?

TOLD YOU SO 20 YEARS AGO.

ANTARCTICA PLUNGES TO -70.6C (-95.1F), ICE TAKES A SHARP UPTURN; + EUROPE CONTINUES TO FREEZE: FRANCE LOGGED 80 NEW *MONTHLY* LOW TEMP RECORDS YESTERDAY AS NATION SUFFERED COLDEST-EVER APRIL NIGHT
April 5, 2022 Cap Allon
Frost fires have once again been lit across Western Europe, as they were last year, to protect the continent’s delicate fruit crops.

Last edited 1 month ago by Allan MacRae
Dennis G. Sandberg
Reply to  Allan MacRae
April 7, 2022 1:03 am

Allan, To a progressive that cold weather is proof of global warming. CO2 induced warmed air is pushing cold air out of the Arctic.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 5, 2022 10:26 am

So you look at the high point of wetter weather and go from there?
I question your reasoning skills.

Thomas
Reply to  Brad-DXT
April 5, 2022 10:58 am

Bruce is correct. Drier is lower on the chart. So there is a trend towards drier conditions that starts in the 1980s.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Thomas
April 5, 2022 12:21 pm

Yawn, boring compared to this graph!

CAdrough.png
Old Man Winter
Reply to  Thomas
April 5, 2022 1:00 pm

Here are three maps of deserts & forests from 18kya, 5kya,
& today, with CO2 @ <200ppm, a bit >200, & ~400ppm,
respectively. The first was in the last ice age & the last two
were in warmer periods in the current inter-glacial. There were vast deserts in the first one when it was cold w/low
CO2. The world has greened by an area ~ the size of the US
more because of more CO2. So, warmth & CO2 appear to be
good, not evil, as lying The Team™ wants us to believe.

Source: https://atoc.colorado.edu/~toohey/overheads.html

18kyadst.jpg
Old Man Winter
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 5, 2022 1:00 pm

5kya after coming out of the climate
optimum, ~ a bit warmer than today.

5kyadsrt.jpg
Last edited 1 month ago by Old Man Winter
Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 5, 2022 2:23 pm

More than a bit warmer than today, sea level much higher back then.
We already know the answer, warmer is better

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 5, 2022 1:05 pm

today

deserts.jpg
Linnea
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 5, 2022 12:20 pm

I did misread the right-side axis of this chart and am working on an update to the article, good catch! I do think it is within the natural variability of the region, especially when you pull the timeline out to even 1850; I have seen in this 2007 E.R.Cook et al. study that there have been periods of very intense drought in the West before.

On the point of this amateur mistake, though, I am officially the class dunce!

kingsizedunce.PNG
Old Man Winter
Reply to  Linnea
April 5, 2022 1:34 pm

Unlike The Team™, at least you are honest about being wrong.
They could use a lot more of what you have!!

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  Linnea
April 5, 2022 1:48 pm

Excellent essay, Linnea.

Although I would drop the drought paragraph and chart. First, drought is NOT a “a major factor for the ignition of wildfires”. Ignition sources are various, with lightning and humans being the principal ones.

Second, while the dryness of the fuel IS a factor in fire spread, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is NOT a measure of fuel dryness. The PDSI is an annualized model based on weather data. It does not purport to model fuel conditions and is not used by fire teams — they employ different data and models. For the limitations of PDSI see [LINK].

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/palmer-drought-severity-index-pdsi

Third, PSDI has not and cannot be correlated with fire extent. Note that extent (acres burned) is different from frequency (the number of fires), severity (tree mortality % from fire), and intensity (the temps at the fire front). It’s best not to mix these up or together. They’re all important, just not the same. And correlation (which is not causation) of PDSI with any of these does not exist.

Otherwise, the essay is great. I especially like the forest management part. As I often spout: It’s the fuels, Watson. Fuel accumulates. If there is any change over time in forest fires, it’s due to ever increasing fuels.

Scissor
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
April 5, 2022 2:00 pm

And the number of arsonists are at an unprecedented high.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Scissor
April 5, 2022 2:51 pm

84% of the fires in the US West are started by humans.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Linnea
April 5, 2022 2:28 pm

I think the chart should stay in, no need to pretend there is no drought happening, a natural thing (its called the Great Plains not the Great Forest because drought is the normal condition).
The argument remains the same, there is mild drought, much milder than past droughts and is in no way a problem other than we really prefer there be no drought.
Wishes and dreams. The stuff of science.
Besides, this index shows it drier now than the dirty 30’s which i doubt. more measurement bias or adjustments likely hidden in the background.

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  Pat from Kerbob
April 5, 2022 6:01 pm

The comparison given is between PDSI and fire extent. It’s a model, with PDSI for the explanatory variable and extent for the resultant variable. This kind of model is underspecified, a type of logical and scientific fallacy.

There are dozens of factors that influence fire extent including fuel quantity, condition, and continuity, access, suppression methods and strategies, politics, lawsuits, and weather to name a few. None of these are considered in the model. Their influences are ignored. Instead, output from another model, PDSI, is the only explanatory variable used.

Regardless of the model “fit”, it’s a junk model. Underspecified, illogical, unscientific: it looks like science but it’s not. Just because some charlatans misuse this model to promote climate alarmism, it doesn’t mean thoughtful people should buy into it.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 5, 2022 2:20 pm

From the source webpage
“Positive values represent wetter-than-average conditions, while negative values represent drier-than-average conditions. A value between -2 and -3 indicates moderate drought, -3 to -4 is severe drought, and -4 or below indicates extreme drought. The thicker line is a nine-year weighted average.”

So indeed this chart shows a mild/moderate dryer period since 1980, which chimes with the PDO cycle it seems to me.
The article is about the latest frenzy of “were all going to die”, the data shows moderate drought period.
As per chart below, this is pretty mellow compared to the history of the area?

comment image

Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 5, 2022 3:06 pm

No one said it is getting wetter. They say “recent modest increase in drought conditions are well within the range of historic natural variability” which is obviously true from the graph.

meab
Reply to  Bruce Ranta
April 5, 2022 5:03 pm

What you’re seeing is cherry picking. Here’s the Palmer Drought Index averaged over the whole U.S. It’s getting slightly wetter.

comment image

If you look at smaller and smaller areas you will always find an area in drought.

Bruce Ranta
Reply to  meab
April 5, 2022 5:56 pm

Look, all I said was Fig. 1 showed a slight trend to drought, or at least drier conditions. I did not cherry pick anything. I agree that there are all sorts of regional trends. Where I live, the experts predicted hot and dry 30 years ago, but except for last summer, it’s been wet and wetter. And it’s snowing – hard – as I type. And still more than 30 cm of snow on the ground and all the lakes are still covered with 50 cm+ of ice.

Richard Page
April 5, 2022 10:21 am

You can’t fix stupid but you can attempt to repair ignorance.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Richard Page
April 5, 2022 5:13 pm

You can get your own grip on the matter if you go back to raw data and make your own graphs.
Here in Australia we are constantly being told by authorities like the BOM, CSIRO, Chief Scientists etc that heatwaves are getting longer, hotter and more frequent. So, I looked at the 6 State capital cities for the longest weather sets, the home of most of the people of Aust.
Here are the graphs that show it is WRONG to state the hotter, longer, faster rubbish.
Nothing stops dear readers here from making your own graphs for your districts. Anyone older than about 10 can master the simple Excel requirements these days. Sadly, few do. Sad, because it is important to show the basic data again and again and again. Geoff S
http://www.geoffstuff.com/asixheatwave2022.xlsx

Steve Case
April 5, 2022 10:25 am

Figure 2 of the article looks very much like figure 16.1 that Biden administration allah Winston Smith removed from the U.S. Forest service web pages:

comment image

Now only available on the Internet Archive Way Back Machine.

A similar heat wave chart was removed from this EPA web page:

comment image

Last edited 1 month ago by Steve Case
Brad-DXT
Reply to  Steve Case
April 5, 2022 10:31 am

If it doesn’t fit the current narrative, it must go.
Orwell wrote their playbook.

Linnea
Reply to  Steve Case
April 5, 2022 10:42 am

Yes, in 2021 the U.S. Forest service chose the lowest point in the dataset–1983 or thereabouts– and chose that as their starting point on the website. Their justification was that all data prior to that date was “unreliable”.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Linnea
April 5, 2022 11:50 am

AKA “cherry picking”.

Robert Ingersol
Reply to  Steve Case
April 5, 2022 1:57 pm

Here is why the pre-1960 data cannot be used for this purpose.

https://woodromances.blogspot.com/2022/02/wildfire-statistics-in-united-states.html

Steve Case
Reply to  Robert Ingersol
April 5, 2022 8:08 pm

Your link says:

They could have said something about that data to distinguish it from data following 1983. But of course that’s precisely what they did when the data was up. They said, “Prior to 1983, sources of these figures are not known, or cannot be confirmed, and were not derived from the current situation reporting process.
_________________________________________________________

I’m old enough to remember the Yellowstone fire of 1953 and in 1956 My father and I climbed a fire tower in Colorado, unannounced and spent quite a while up there while the rangers showed us around. I’m rather sure they kept good records.

And you didn’t mention the EPA’s Heat Wave Index that has also gone missing.

These two items are consistent with other government manipulations and censoring of data. And it’s not limited to just Climate Change.

Doonman
Reply to  Steve Case
April 5, 2022 2:09 pm

Removing past predictions that failed are the new government jobs program. Apparently, government bureaucrats are ashamed of their past failures or they wouldn’t remove them.

This is my favorite.

Glacier-National-Park-Removes-Signs-2020.jpg
ResourceGuy
Reply to  Doonman
April 5, 2022 3:03 pm

Yes, Federal propaganda even follows you to the national parks.

Bruce Cobb
April 5, 2022 10:31 am

The Denver Post is hopped up on climate alarmism.

Rhee
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
April 5, 2022 11:13 am

So sad to see the disintegration of truth in the reporting of the once venerable D-P, which I used to read several decades ago when I resided in CO. The only saving grace is that newspaper’s circulation, both print and digital, is virtually non existent now so they’re not misleading many folks.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Rhee
April 5, 2022 11:53 am

Toward the end of my subscription to the DP, I was getting it for comics and crosswords. Every time I accidently opened the editorial page I just got mad. Cut the cord almost 15 years ago.

Bruce J Juhl
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
April 5, 2022 12:15 pm

It was so sad to see the Rocky Mountain News go under. It was at least a little bit moderate. The Post has been “compost” for much of the latter 20th century up to present.

Bill_W_1984
April 5, 2022 10:38 am

Linnea, doesn’t the drought graph show the last 20 years is a bit dryer than the previous 20 years?

Vuk
April 5, 2022 11:11 am

It’s simply mathematical certainty
x < N > X
Anything smaller (x) or larger (X) than normal (N) whatever that might be is caused by the global warming, and do not forget the global warming will be cause of the global cooling when inevitably comes along.

griff
April 5, 2022 11:28 am

fire season is sure getting longer…

Vuk
Reply to  griff
April 5, 2022 11:33 am

Only way to keep warm when we arrive at the ‘net zero’, Griffo.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  griff
April 5, 2022 11:40 am

And the cow jumped over the Moon. Really!

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 5, 2022 11:43 am

I bet Griffo can’t wait for the Easter Unicorn to fly
over the rainbow to bring him that pot of gold!

Last edited 1 month ago by Old Man Winter
Oldseadog
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 5, 2022 1:50 pm

Here you are, griff.

WIN_20211119_12_32_20_Pro.jpg
Old Man Winter
Reply to  Oldseadog
April 5, 2022 9:34 pm

+100000000000000! Have you ever considered
working for the Babylon Bee where fake news
becomes real news more often than not?

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Old Man Winter
April 5, 2022 11:47 am

I have > a 97% consensus that proves it, too!

Old Man Winter
Reply to  griff
April 5, 2022 11:51 am

Pssst! It’s no longer April 1st!!!

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  griff
April 5, 2022 11:59 am

You’ve got to hand it to Griff, he’s got an unsubstatiated answer for everything with no backup references.

I watched a piece on local TV News about a re-wilding project somewhere in the area. It was an expansion of a wooded area with young trees probably about 10 – 12 years old. The evironmantalist guide and reporter were walking through dead grass perhaps 8 to 12 inches long, as they walked you could hear it rustling.

I was thinking there’s a fire waiting to start, and climate change will be the cause.

Vuk
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
April 5, 2022 12:57 pm

What else to expect from the ‘net zero brains Griff’

CapitalistRoader
April 5, 2022 11:29 am

Nonsense. A bunch of rich people’s houses in Boulder County burned down so it must be the fault of global warming. There is no other possible explanation. Plus most had In this home we believe in science signs in their front yards. It’s not fair, dammit!

Last edited 1 month ago by CapitalistRoader
Carlo, Monte
Reply to  CapitalistRoader
April 5, 2022 11:58 am

Then consider what the survivors are faced with—rebuilding the burnt homes is “new construction”, which means they all must meet current Peoples’ Republic of Boulder County building codes.

One is these a requirement to install a battery car charger in every garage slot. Not every garage, every indoor parking space. If you had a 3-car garage, you now get to pay for three charging ports, which includes the electrical service to each of them.

Scissor
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
April 5, 2022 2:25 pm

I drive through the burned out sections almost every day. It amazes me how little cleanup work has been done in the residential areas, except for on the golf course, which is open.

The contrast between the grassy areas where fire burned and didn’t burn is stark. The burned areas now are the greenest that I’ve ever seen them in my nearly 40 years in the area. Where it didn’t burn, it’s still the relatively ugly brown dead area.

Fire can be a natural means for rejuvenation. There’s just about no news concerning the investigation of wildfire’s origin. It seems that all sides are lawyering up.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Scissor
April 5, 2022 4:37 pm

There was a fire in Bear Creek Park and the nearby golf course late in 2020, the next spring the burn areas were totally green.

Bill Parsons
Reply to  Scissor
April 6, 2022 12:03 am

Scissor, a March 31 CBS Denver channel reports that two causes are being investigated: a smoldering coal seam and sparking Xcel Energy wires. Guessing wherever the investigations lead, someone is facing a massive liability suit.



A few weeks after the fire I wrote an e-mail to Boulder Parks about what species were growing across the Marshall Open Space and how the grasslands were being managed. I got a nice response from a woman with the title of Open Space “Vegetation Management Program Supervisor”. Among other things, she related that the grasslands are leased to local ranchers for cattle grazing. I asked if they ever grazed goats, which would probably have taken a lot of that fuel down to a safer level.

Cattle are an excellent resource for us to utilize to effectively manage vegetation on our open spaces. We don’t use goats as they can graze down anything and everything, including shrubs. Shrubs that migratory birds need to survive. Cattle are much more forgiving on the landscape 

I have to wonder if a local “adaptation” for rebuilding Louisville, Lafayette and Boulder might include running the goats through the grasslands above these cities whenever fuel begins to build up. Would a selective cropping be at least one tool to manage the risk of future grassfires, especially as they are subject to 100 mph Chinook winds virtually every year?

Regarding frequency of the Chinooks… looks to me like they are about as frequent as they have been over the last 50 years:

https://psl.noaa.gov/boulder/wind.tmp.html

Carlo, Monte
April 5, 2022 11:49 am

The Denver Post is still in operation?

I am shocked.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Carlo, Monte
April 5, 2022 12:02 pm

You really shouldn’t be cuz it’s now legal to get a “Rocky Mountain High”
like John Denver used to do!

Last edited 1 month ago by Old Man Winter
Dave(@daveandrews723)
April 5, 2022 11:59 am

Shoddy journalism, the product of indoctrinated journalism school graduates over the past 20 years or so. The narrative, to them, is much more important than the truth or the facts.
We have just seen the same thing in the way the mainstream news media handled the Hunter Biden laptops story. Before the election in 2020 they either dismissed the story or neglected it because it would hurt their narrative (Trump bad, Biden good). Now that Biden is in office they are finally admitting, what was obvious all along, that the laptops story was real and factual.
Hopefully they will come around on “catastrophic man-made climate chang” one day, but I’m not holding my breath.

Reply to  Dave
April 5, 2022 1:51 pm

The shoddy journalism is here. The Denver Post was right. The graph displayed here (Figure 1) clearly shows droughts increasing.

R_G
Reply to  Nick Stokes
April 5, 2022 2:19 pm

Which one is it? Last time you have argued that flooding in Australia is caused by “global warming”. Make your mind drought or flooding.

Reply to  R_G
April 5, 2022 3:32 pm

I simply point out that the plot shown has drought increasing, just as the Denver Post said. Not decreasing, as Linnea said.

Scissor
Reply to  Nick Stokes
April 5, 2022 2:29 pm

Cherry pick your beginning and ending points, it’s still all within natural variation.

Reply to  Scissor
April 5, 2022 3:31 pm

Her choice, not mine.

Scissor
Reply to  Nick Stokes
April 5, 2022 6:30 pm

Prove the point wrong. You can’t.

You can be a sophist, and you are, but the only one you are fooling is yourself.

Doonman
Reply to  Nick Stokes
April 5, 2022 2:42 pm

But Global Warming Climate Change Theory says increasing temperatures cause more evaporation which causes more water vapor which causes more heating which causes more evaporation and a runaway wetter global climate.

So let me get this straight, Global Warming Climate Change Theory causes increasing drought and increasing precipitation simultaneously. How interesting.

Mr.
Reply to  Doonman
April 5, 2022 5:13 pm

How interesting?

How NONSENSICAL!

ResourceGuy
April 5, 2022 12:18 pm

Maybe the Denver Post is using McKinsey Consulting as in other climate consulting work they do.

Watchdog urged to probe McKinsey over work with FDA, opioid manufacturers – ABC News (go.com)

Robert Ingersol
April 5, 2022 1:54 pm

Probably too late to be the first to point out how the knuckleheads have rather obviously misinterpreted the Palmer Drought Severity Index graph. It actually shows increasing dryness, as if the horrendous fire record of recent years isn’t enough to convince you that the wildfire problem is getting worse all over the globe.

The statistics on US wildfires prior to 1960 are NOT VALID, just like the source of the graph you present told you. Here is a full explanation of why they are not valid.

https://woodromances.blogspot.com/2022/02/wildfire-statistics-in-united-states.html

Now explain why wildfire is becoming a disaster in the Arctic for the first time ever.

Scissor
Reply to  Robert Ingersol
April 5, 2022 3:13 pm

It’s not.

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Robert Ingersol
April 5, 2022 3:16 pm

… the wildfire problem is getting worse all over the globe …

Not according to a recent The Royal Society study:
“Fire activity is on the rise in some regions, but when considering the total area burned at the global level, we are still not seeing an overall increase”.
They do acknowledge that ‘climate change’ is a factor amongst others without attributing any of it to increasing CO2.
The human activities or neglect it does mention are land-use changes, arson and accidents, excess build-up of fuels etc.
“Society needs to understand that we live on a flammable planet where fire has been shaping ecosystems for over 400 millions years. It will be still here in the future, no matter what we do, so we need to acknowledge this and learn to co-exist”.

Last edited 1 month ago by Chris Hanley
Drake
Reply to  Robert Ingersol
April 5, 2022 3:29 pm

First time EVER, like first time in time before humans roamed the earth?

Humans before 1960 didn’t have any idea how to measure anything. Temperatures they measured were TOO HIGH, so they have been “adjusted” lower.

Humans before 1960 couldn’t read a rain gauge so PAST historical floods and droughts are “unreliable”.

And this site, under the profound work of Anthony Watts did research that showed that humans AFTER 1960 screwed up the siting of weather enclosures, painted the enclosures with latex paint, etc. WITHOUT running side by side old and new to verify that the temperature and other readings were not being corrupted.

So I simply call BS, Robert, on you.

Walter Sobchak
April 5, 2022 2:29 pm

It is not the Denver Post. It is AP through their Climate Kook in Chief, Seth Borenstein. he is burning up the wires with his hysteria. Here is some more that I read in today (4/5) Columbus (OH) Dogpatch. [sorry no URL — paywalled with extreme prejudice]:

“Temperatures on Earth will shoot past a key danger point unless greenhouse gas emissions fall faster than countries have committed”

“Governments agreed in the 2015 Paris accord to keep global warming well below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit this century, ideally no more than 2.7 degrees.”

“… temperatures have already increased by more than 2 degrees since preindustrial times, resulting in measurable increases in disasters such flash floods, extreme heat, more intense hurricanes and longer-burning wildfires, putting human lives in danger and costing governments hundreds of billions of dollars to confront.”

“they voiced ‘high confidence’ that unless countries step up their efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the planet will on average be 4.3 to 6.3degrees warmer by the end of the century”

“Among the solutions recommended are a rapid shift away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy such as increasingly cheap solar and wind power, the electrification of transport, less meat consumption, more efficient use of resources and massive financial support for poor countries unable to pay for such measures without help.”

“the planet is moving ‘perilously close to tipping points that could lead to cascading and irreversible climate impacts.”

Doonman
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
April 5, 2022 5:43 pm

“Temperatures on Earth will shoot past a key danger point unless greenhouse gas emissions fall faster than countries have committed”

What is a “key danger point”, who established it and what history in Earths 4 billion year climate system proves there is any danger? Is it because hippo’s might return to the Thames River?

What scientific studies show that lowering human greenhouse gas emissions will lower global temperatures? Since that hasn’t happened in anyone’s lifetime, it is impossible to observe and therefore impossible to state as fact.

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
April 5, 2022 6:04 pm

Clearly they believe that constant repetition will make stupidity believable.

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
April 5, 2022 6:05 pm

Can anybody explain out of what hat the climate crazies snatched the 2°C and 1.5°C targets?
Is there any scientific justification (whether plausible or not) for those numbers?

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
April 5, 2022 8:38 pm

The notion of a “tipping point” and the related notion of accelerating change is one that baffles me.

AFAIK, the fundamental constant that encapsulates climate change, f/k/a global warming, is the equilibrium climate sensitivity or ECS (a/k/a Charney sensitivity) which is the amount by which the average global temperature of the atmosphere will increase if the concentration of CO2 is doubled.

Taking the 19th Century CO2 concentration as 280 ppm, the AGT of the atmosphere at that time as 287K (14°C), then when the CO2 concentration hits 560ppm, the AGT will be 287K+ECS.

IPCC has used the Hansen-Charney number for ECS of 3 with fiddles and error bars since the get go. More recent efforts, much to the same effect, are based on the GCMs run by the “climate scientists”. Empirical efforts by scientists such as Judith Curry have been under 2.

Be that as it may, ECS which is based on doubling is a logarithmic relationship. Logarithmic functions are the opposite of exponential functions. Exponential functions take off and go faster and faster. Logarithmic functions slow down their rate of increase and grind to a halt. You don’t have to worry about them, if they are not a problem now, they will be less of a problem later.

RevJay4
April 6, 2022 7:37 am

Computer models…uh, yeah. A really proven method of predicting the future of just about anything. Not. As I recall back in the 70s we were all supposed to be frozen to death by now. Then along came computer models which predicted “globull warming” would destroy the planet by this time. I like the idea of warmer rather than colder for personal comfort.
Bottom line: I have an old crystal ball which can do just as well at predicting as the computer models. It is limited to “yes” or “no” answers, so the questions asked are important, sorta.

Dennis G. Sandberg
April 7, 2022 12:58 am

Liberals look at things a little differently than non-liberals. For example, to them, there had not been a fire last three weeks, and now this week there is one. Therefore, there has been a dramatic “unprecedented” increase in the number of fires.

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