Turn on the taps? What taps? What’s the matter with you people?

From BOE REPORT

March 9, 2022 Terry Etam

Today’s soap box rant is different. Taking the high road today, no names. I’m going to talk about a senior political figure and not talk about hemorrhoids or Rasputin or political virtuosity. I’m going to talk about a geopolitical oil/energy/climate expert professor/CNN commentator from a prestigious US university, and I won’t argue about how many angels can dance on a pin’s head not will I speculate on what a theoretical building would turn out like if engineers, plumbers, and tradesmen were banned from construction participation.

No need to name them; what is important is that their views are perfectly in sync with common political energy intelligence. They are both prominent mainstream media players who rank extremely highly in North American energy policy dialogue, and both happened to drop some social media posts that speak volumes about why we are in such an energy disaster.

The line of thinking on display from both is highly relevant, like when driving through fog and two little red glows in the mist rapidly take shape as the back of a truck.

The commonality of their thinking, the part that aligns with consensus media view, can be summarized by recent unrelated social media posts. Both of these characters, let’s call them Exhibit A and Exhibit B, maintain an endless stream of commentary that disparages the oil/gas industry and calls for acceleration towards renewables.

One voiced strong support for Germany’s recent plan to accelerate their green energy transition to all-renewables by 2035 (made within days of the country announcing plans to build two new LNG import facilities; German energy policy forums are now home to some of the worst thinking the industrial world has ever seen), the other points out the need to advance wind/solar installations to solve the energy crisis.

Beyond those staples, both have found a new and common key message: a scornful demand that oil companies step up and produce a lot more oil and quickly. “Do the right thing,” one of them said. Exhibit A tweeted that Russia’s oil exports equal 4 percent of global oil production and that other producers could replace that capacity “without breaking much of a sweat.”

Presented as evidence were a number of charts showing the variability of US and Saudi oil production – US production is shown to have peaked at about 13 million b/d, falling briefly to about 10 million barrels per day before rebounding, with the accompanying message: “That’s [Russia’s lost 4 million b/d]  about the US oil production range since 2018.” A similar chart is shown for Saudi Arabia.

Exhibit B follows a similar path in an online thread about how the oil industry should quit whining and just crank up production. That didn’t sit well; a petroleum industry member asks why the industry should after being vilified, belittled, and de-populated by social stigma. The petroleum person went on to ask, validly, why the industry would re-allocated capital to growth if in 2-3 years the industry would be punished again.

Exhibit B fired back snottily that Dutch companies didn’t “say that kind of shit” with respect to increasing production; they “just went out and did it.” In another tweet she lamented the stupidity of the oil industry, stuck in the past and looking backwards.

The message from both: Hydrocarbon industry, just shut up and raise production, we know it is easy and you just choose not to. We don’t want to hear from you, you have no future, and you are outdated dinosaurs that are still wrecking the planet. But due to an unforeseen war, we just need to use you for a few more years, and if you don’t ramp up production immediately well, that means you just don’t support the people of Ukraine. 

Where this gets really interesting is in the frightening depths of ignorance underpinning the thought processes of both. The disconnect between the way the world really works and what is going on between their ears is truly disturbing.

Exhibit A’s thought – that because US production has fluctuated by 3-4 million b/d over the past few years, the US can add that much to current production at will – is just so bizarre and vacuous that there is nowhere to even go with it. Every knowledgeable industry observer points out that raising production levels substantially within six months or so is virtually impossible (logistics, material/personnel shortages, lack of transportation options, etc.), and within a year or two would still be incredibly challenging for an industry that has just pivoted to the low/no growth model that virtually everyone has been asking for (including most vocally the likes of Exhibit A and B).29dk2902lhttps://boereport.com/29dk2902l.html

Exhibit B’s reference to Dutch producers’ instantaneous production increase “in support of the current emergency” is even more outlandish, because the proof provided in support of this statement does not even say anything of the sort. The lazy academic just found a supportive-sounding headline (“Netherlands nearly doubles estimated Groningen gas output to secure supply”) without even reading the article, which stated that “The Dutch government expects to increase the amount of gas it allows to be produced” from the field, and, far more critically, that the Dutch ministry “does not currently expect to produce any more gas from Groningen from mid-2022.” You read that right: the field is to be shut down entirely by the middle of the year.

Furthermore, the Dutch government had announced that Groningen output would be higher in this current period back in November 2021. The meat of the story is that Groningen production will be allowed to increase for a few months before being shut entirely a few months thereafter. The academic idiot classified this as instantaneous action to increase production that US producers are too stupid and backward thinking to emulate.

This might sound like pedantic nitpicking, but it’s not. These high-profile/well-connected/government-friendly commentators have no clue what they are talking about with respect to hydrocarbon production. Zero.  (What supports that assertion of ignorance? Well, how about the head of OPEC saying that the world has not invested enough to meet demand? He did say just that, and that was before the world lost Russia’s sizeable output.)

That underinvestment is a result of the global “divest fossil fuels” movement, underperformance of US shale companies, and the general well-orchestrated animosity generated against the hydrocarbon industry. That last function should not be underestimated. Many employees are fed up with being disrespected simply for working in a specific industry, particularly when that industry is the fuel source for the world. They are leaving in droves so that they can dine in restaurants in peace again, and not get in shouting matches with half-witted social contacts that have been brainwashed to bully fuel providers.

Production cannot be increased at will. It takes years. Many of us have been warning of a global shortfall for years, because of a collapse in upstream investment after the 2014 oil price crash. The Russian situation has simply brought the issue to a head much quicker than it otherwise would have. 

Part of the problem is the legend of OPEC spare production. Many commentators spend a lot of time analyzing OPEC claims, challenging them, and coming up with their own numbers. But in reality, no one knows what it is. Bison Interests has done some great analysis of what OPEC spare capacity might be, and they are to be credited for challenging the numbers in the first place since everyone else just seems to take them at face value.

The Saudis have fluctuating rig counts just like every other jurisdiction, which implies they actually have to drill just like everyone else. It may be true that they can ramp up waterflood output, but Saudi Aramco is a very good operator, having stewarded fields for decades with incredible levels of understanding (the largest field, Ghawar, apparently has a trillion cell reservoir simulation model). It can be safely assumed that they are maximizing field production for the good of the field, and taking advantage of these prices however they can.

Over on this side of the world, there are other hurdles to increasing oil production. First, the industry has been kicked in the teeth for a few years now for chronic overproduction that cratered prices. The relentless drive to increase production – a perfectly predictable outcome given how management teams were incentivized – destroyed a lot of capital as prime drilling locations were brought online in low price environments, year after year. (Broadly speaking, those grow-at-all-costs incentive plans are disappearing, replaced with rewards for returning cash to shareholders. Incentives work.). 

Even more significantly, no one likes to hear that they are ‘killing the planet’ very much either, particularly when children are parading through the streets bearing such messages. It gets tiresome. That attitude, combined with relentless commentary about how hydrocarbons will be ‘stranded assets’ very soon, begs the question: is it any wonder producers are reluctant to plow significant cash flow back into the ground to grow production? Only an idiot would expect that.

Speaking of which, some go even beyond that level of incompetence. Trudeau (ok, busted, using one name), in Europe to discuss the European energy crisis, had a golden opportunity to show support right where it is being demanded -the world is desperate for more hydrocarbons, and Canada can supply them in copious amounts. Germany has announced plans to build new LNG import facilities, and Europe in general is fearfully short of natural gas. 

What does Trudeau say? That Canada will be there to support Europe and, as the world moves “beyond fossil fuels,” to “have more renewables in our mix.” If you’re perplexed by that statement, you should be; it doesn’t make sense on any level. But that’s what happens when a leader like that takes advice from the Exhibits exhibited above.

The energy situation continues to get more surreal by the day. The world is desperate for hydrocarbons, and the vested anti-hydrocarbon people, the thousands of Exhibit x’s, are starting to openly say this, but have somehow found a path in their brains that allows them to think they can demand more production from an industry while continuing to vilify, threaten, and belittle it, with the implicit promise that as soon as possible they will be stomping that industry out of existence. In the meantime, all you stupid grease monkeys just produce what we tell you to. 

The hydrocarbon sector is not, to my experience, a slave organization. Neither is it shying away from supporting a anti-Putin war effort. The issue is much simpler than that: production simply cannot be materially increased quickly. It is a tragedy that the world is going to suffer because of that – through sky high prices and possibly food shortages – but the geopolitical wunderkinds that steadfastly maintain hydrocarbons are a dead end must ultimately bear responsibility for the fact that those hydrocarbons are not going to be there when the world needs them most. Sad days indeed. 

Slava Ukraini! Find out how the world got into such a calamitous energy state, and how to get out – pick up  “The End of Fossil Fuel Insanity” at Amazon.caIndigo.ca, or Amazon.com. Thanks for the support.

Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here, or email Terry here. PS: Dear email correspondents, the email flow is wonderful and welcome, but am having trouble keeping up. Apologies if comments/questions go unanswered; they are not ignored.

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Vuk
Reply to  TallDave
March 10, 2022 11:35 am

Let them eat cakes !

The Cambridges (for you ignorant overseas plebs that’s Prince William and his missus) show support for Ukraine with a bag of cakes.

RickWill
Reply to  Vuk
March 10, 2022 1:39 pm

It is the thought that counts.

Richard Page
Reply to  RickWill
March 10, 2022 5:06 pm

They certainly thought it counted!

Reply to  RickWill
March 10, 2022 6:37 pm

That is an empty well.
Drill elsewhere to find thought.

Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
March 10, 2022 1:44 pm

For millions of Chelsea football club supporters (there are two in my family) all around the world.
Today BoJo grabbed big ‘cake’ from Russian oligarch best known for being owner of Chelsea, one of the world’s top football clubs.
But where is tovarich Abramovich?
Could be anywhere including on his megayacht ‘my Solaris’, which is avoidng coastal waters.
Montenegro is only Europe Mediterranean place where there are already number of oligarchs’ yachts safe from being impounded but more logical destination would be Israel. You can follow his progress here
https://www.marinetraffic.com/fr/ais/home/shipid:6570613/zoom:10
and select ‘trace passee’

Last edited 2 months ago by Vuk
Alexy Scherbakoff
Reply to  Vuk
March 10, 2022 3:43 pm

I’m not a fan of impounding private property unless there has been proven criminal activity.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Alexy Scherbakoff
March 12, 2022 1:06 am

No due process, no freedom.

TallDave
Reply to  TallDave
March 10, 2022 12:54 pm

UPDATE: sorry guys, it turns out this report is false… the Bee has officially retracted after being informed their article might be satire

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/03/09/fact-check-satirical-claim-biden-selling-alaska-russia/9431621002/

Last edited 2 months ago by TallDave
RickWill
Reply to  TallDave
March 10, 2022 1:40 pm

How could anyone take that story seriously in the first place?

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  RickWill
March 10, 2022 2:06 pm

We are talking, after all, about people who are known to fact check comedians, opinion pieces, and speculations.

Last edited 2 months ago by Nicholas McGinley
Scissor
Reply to  RickWill
March 10, 2022 2:56 pm

CNN is still not sure about it.

DrEd
Reply to  Scissor
March 12, 2022 2:07 pm

Dumber than a bag of rocks

Jtom
Reply to  RickWill
March 10, 2022 7:37 pm

Ever since parody inversion, no one can tell the difference between jokes and reality.
Reality has become so absurd that it is indistinguishable from parody.

Concept taken from Dilbert (Scott Adams)

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Jtom
March 12, 2022 1:06 am

🤡🌍

Robert W Turner
Reply to  TallDave
March 10, 2022 4:09 pm

Unintentional self-parody is the supreme humor.

Don
Reply to  TallDave
March 10, 2022 5:56 pm

I hope Talldave you are just extending the satire ? I am absolutely certain the vast majority of people on this page new this was satire when they first saw it .

TallDave
Reply to  Don
March 11, 2022 6:45 am

there’s a lot of confusion on this point so let me clarify

many Babylon Bee articles appear, at first, to be satire, but then later turn out to be true

this “prophetic satire” model means we can never be sure whether even our own comments on the Bee are in fact satire, or are merely facts that we didn’t know at the time we wrote them

https://babylonbee.com/news/why-does-satire-keep-coming-true

Last edited 2 months ago by TallDave
roaddog
Reply to  TallDave
March 11, 2022 7:14 am

The more absurd a suggested action is, the more likely the Biden administration is considering it. This is, after all, a President who sent his most trusted diplomat Kamala Harris to Poland to deal with war in Europe.
Nixon had Kissinger, Brandon has the Cackler.

John Garrett
March 10, 2022 10:22 am

The ignorance Mr. Etem describes in his excellent piece is a direct result of an educational system that has largely failed to teach economics (and mathematics and science) to its students.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  John Garrett
March 10, 2022 11:11 am

What is missing the most is Common Sense. Whose fault – parents….

AndyHce
Reply to  Gregory Woods
March 10, 2022 11:51 am

For not being forceful enough to destroy the public education/system that cautions students not to tell their parents what they are being taught and that prevents parent oversight through direct observation?

Last edited 2 months ago by AndyHce
AndyHce
Reply to  AndyHce
March 10, 2022 12:06 pm

Does anyone else get the “edit” results I often do? I see some problem in what I just entered so I try to edit it. The system enters ‘edit’ mode but it presents a total blank where my comment should be. I can not put anything into that blank space. After I give up it says I just edited the content. The same thing is still happening with my entry above, perhaps 5 minutes later.

Another malfunction that is common is the non-availability of the formatting icons, such as bold, italics, quote, etc. That happens fairly often. It is the current condition.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  AndyHce
March 10, 2022 1:21 pm

What browser are you using?
Do you have pop ups blocked 100% or anything like that?

RickWill
Reply to  AndyHce
March 10, 2022 1:43 pm

My browser is Safari and it has never done that.

I occasionally lose whole paragraphs – I think when someone else posts.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  AndyHce
March 10, 2022 2:05 pm

I use Edge and this site works flawlessly ever since it was reconfigured to the present form a while back.

John Hultquist
Reply to  AndyHce
March 10, 2022 6:51 pm

I use a text editor and then copy and paste to the comment box.
How many comments does one have to lose before doing this?
Because my first visit to WUWT was in fall of 2008, I can’t answer my own question.

Reply to  AndyHce
March 10, 2022 5:16 pm

I am in located in “conservative” Calgary. My daughter is in “Junior High” (aka “Middle”) school and her Social Sciences teacher makes them watch CNN every class and then discuss it. Apparently the kids are allowed to dispute CNN’s propaganda, but few do.
Our entire education system and civil service are dominated by woke leftists who fervently believe the following falsehoods:
“Fossil fuels are dangerous to humanity and the environment.”
[100% False – Fossil fuels comprise ~85% of global primary energy, unchanged for decades, and essential for human survival.]
“Atmospheric CO2 (aka “carbon”) is deadly and must be suppressed via Carbon Taxes and Carbon Sequestration measures.”
[100% False – The only significant impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 is increased plant and crop yields, both of which are entirely beneficial.”]
“We are all going to suffer and die due to runaway man-made global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels.”
[100% False – It was long ago proved that climate is INsensitive to increasing atmospheric CO2 – the climate models used to predict runaway warming are deliberately programmed to cause false alarm and run far too hot compared to actual observations.]
“We need to spend trillions of dollars and live much poorer lives to install green energy generation – wind and solar – into our power grids to save us from runaway global warming caused by fossil fuel combustion.”
[100% False – Wind and solar electrical generation fail due to intermittency and diffusivity – the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine 24/7 and
battery backup is impractical – and wind and solar require far too much land
area.]
“By 2020, global warming alarmists had predicted 48 warming catastrophes that would cause great harm to humanity and the environment.”
[100% False – By the end of 2020, the climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 times. At 50:50 odds for each prediction, that is like flipping a coin 48 times and losing every time! The probability of that being mere random stupidity is 1 in 281 trillion! It’s not just global warming scientists being stupid.
But no sensible person makes a 50:50 prediction – at 60:40 the odds against being this wrong are 1 in 13 quintillion; at 70:30 the odds against being this wrong are 1 in 13 septillion.]
 
Even the most innumerate climate leftist must get it:
Climate doomsters have not been telling the truth. Ever! They lied! They’ve been lying for ~50 years and they know it! Quelle surprise!
The decades of earnest attempts by honest climate scientists to debate the science with warmist fraudsters have been a waste of time – the climate fraudsters know they are lying so they just shout down and vilify contrary opinions – a standard Leninist tactic.
Reference for the above paper on Climate falsehoods by the left: https://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=112896

Last edited 2 months ago by Allan MacRae
davidgmillsatty
Reply to  Allan MacRae
March 10, 2022 6:55 pm

Nuclear could easily displace fossil fuels and using the vast reserves of thorium there would not be the shortages we find constantly with fossil fuel. It would make the CO2 argument moot.

Reply to  davidgmillsatty
March 10, 2022 9:11 pm

The CO2 argument is bullsh!t.
Bullsh!t trumps moot.

THE CATASTROPHIC ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (CAGW) AND THE HUMANMADE CLIMATE CHANGE CRISES ARE PROVED FALSE January 10, 2020
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/the-catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming-cagw-and-the-humanmade-climate-change-crises-are-proved-false.pdf
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
 
THE LIBERALS’ COVERT GREEN PLAN FOR CANADA – POVERTY AND DICTATORSHIP October 1, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/01/the-liberals-covert-green-plan-for-canada-poverty-and-dictatorship/
 
THE NEXT GREAT EXTINCTION EVENT WILL NOT BE GLOBAL WARMING – IT WILL BE GLOBAL COOLING September 1, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/01/the-next-great-extinction-event-will-not-be-global-warming-it-will-be-global-cooling/
 
WHAT THE GREEN NEW DEAL IS REALLY ABOUT — AND IT’S NOT THE CLIMATE July 19, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/20/what-the-green-new-deal-is-really-about-and-its-not-the-climate/
 
THE COST TO SOCIETY OF RADICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM July 4, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/04/the-cost-to-society-of-radical-environmentalism/
 
CO2, GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE AND ENERGY June 15, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/15/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-2/
 

davidgmillsatty
Reply to  Allan MacRae
March 11, 2022 11:36 am

I really don’t care anymore if it is or it isn’t. There is no way humanity can predict what will happen in 80 years.

The only way to Predict anything in the future is through statistics. And statistics are a lazy man’s and cheap man’s means of attempting to prove causation. The only right way to prove causation is to run an experiment over and over and get the same or similar results. You can’t do that with the future climate. By definition.

You made a comment that oil can only solve man’s energy crisis. It was wrong. Typical oil and gas mentality. Nuclear is a much better means of solving man’s energy crisis. And oil and gas proponents do everything possible to either pretend nuclear exist or is not safe. Neither of which is true. It is far safer than oil and gas and far less detrimental to the environment even leaving CO2 out of the equation. And actually we could make synthetic hydro carbon fuels using nuclear.

And the damn shame is that once nuclear gets modular, which it will, synthetic hydro carbon fuels could actually compete with the cost of natural hydrocarbon fuels. Here is a presentation given at a thorium conference that explains how:

https://youtu.be/G8zOHZINyG8

Oil and gas people treat nuclear as their arch enemy because they know fossil fuels can not compete with nuclear.

This website used to be worth visiting. I have been coming here at least 10 years. But everything now is from the Oil and Gas perspective.

I am sorry. This website has become nothing but an oil and gas rag.

davidgmillsatty
Reply to  davidgmillsatty
March 11, 2022 11:39 am

*pretend nuclear doesn’t exist

davidgmillsatty
Reply to  davidgmillsatty
March 11, 2022 10:24 pm

Somebody gave me a negative. Truth hurts I guess.

Sommer
Reply to  Allan MacRae
March 13, 2022 9:05 am

Is it not time for a Grand Jury, similar to the model created by lawyer Reiner Fuellmich and financial investigator, Viviane Fischer and their team to focus on these deception- their sources, the media propagating them, the educational institutions who indoctrinate using them and the racketeers who scam governments in their lobbying efforts?

Ron Long
Reply to  John Garrett
March 10, 2022 11:15 am

Even worse than “…failed to teach…mathematics…” because math has now been declared to be “racist” and it appears both California and Oregon will not issue grades in High School math classes. Looks like it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

DrEd
Reply to  Ron Long
March 12, 2022 2:13 pm

OUTLAW TEACHERS’ UNIONS!

Felix
Reply to  John Garrett
March 10, 2022 12:19 pm

It is the natural and predicted result of government-run schools, which were founded with the direct explicit intent of being indoctrination mills, and the natural and predicted result of government convincing so many people that any college degree is useful, and government largesse and student loans pushing universities to create meaningless basket-weaving (then) and woke (now) degrees which cannot be objectively graded.

If colleges had no government loans, families would not send so many unprepared and unwilling students to college, and kids would either get real private sector on-the-job training or would get real STEM degrees where the outcome is up to them,not how much they can fool woke professors.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  John Garrett
March 10, 2022 1:11 pm

John, what’s worse than what they missed teaching, is what they taught instead. Look up Soviet defector Yuri Bezmenov interview by US tv reporter about 35yrs ago – go for the short clip to see what the KGB set up for us and what he predicted for our future!

The Dark Lord
Reply to  John Garrett
March 10, 2022 1:39 pm

while its true that the “educational system” has failed … its also true that for some reason people seem to think that today the only path to knowledge is the “educational system” … its simply willful ignorance that caused the talking heads to spout nonsense … a week of Google searches and reading is sufficient for most people of average intelligence to educate themselves on almost any subject …

BobM
Reply to  John Garrett
March 10, 2022 2:47 pm

I’m not ready to place the blame on the current educational system. Look at Biden, for example.

roaddog
Reply to  John Garrett
March 11, 2022 7:25 am

It is telling that what the educational system views as reliable science is spewed by degreed liberal arts majors like Al Gore.

I think all hope for the future depends on a generation of home-schooled children; good home schooling seeming to be the only remaining source of a comprehensive well-rounded education.

Sommer
Reply to  roaddog
March 13, 2022 9:13 am

Roaddog, this approach is challenging but you’re right. Even using ‘virtual school’ style course material while ‘homeschooling’ is exposing students to all sorts of indoctrination.
Inspire them to be curious. Teach them how how to problem solve and use logic and reasoning in critical analysis. And above all, how to use common sense.

Sommer
Reply to  John Garrett
March 13, 2022 8:56 am

Why do we not have teams of people who have backgrounds in economics, math and science paid to operate the energy portfolio?
Who would we elect a government that was ill prepared to manage such a crucially important portfolio in any country?
Shouldn’t this be the most important election issue?

Peta of Newark
March 10, 2022 10:30 am

does anyone still play ‘snap
In case they do, I scored first..

Headline quote:”For the West, the Worst Is Yet to Come
The Atlantic
(-quite a big read-)

edit to PS
I found that on MSN UK – the comments there are amazing.
There are some Real Sceptics out there and this hasn’t half stirred them up

Let’s just say “refreshing

Last edited 2 months ago by Peta of Newark
Gary Pearse
Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 10, 2022 2:12 pm

Gee Peta, it doesnt touch on the Mastodon in the room: the West’s self immolation in the march to Totalitarianism – the Great Reset of our Davos betters (bettors?). The big boys in the backroom that fashion our fate and run the whole show don’t like Putin, not because of Ukraine, but because he isn’t going along with the NWO stuff. China pretends to go along the Plan (they believe they can subvert it to put them in the drivers seat) and they are loved for it!

John Garrett
Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 10, 2022 3:20 pm

Thanks for the Atlantic piece. It’s worth reading.

(I’ve also posted what follows in another thread)

There’s a race between how long it takes V. Putin to reduce Ukraine to rubble and how long it takes for the oligarchs/Russian people’s suffering to reach critical mass.

In the meantime, we’ve got a stone cold killer who might not be entirely sane with a finger on the nuclear button while we’re now, like it or not, constructively in the regime change business.

I might not sleep too well tonight.

Gilbert K. Arnold
March 10, 2022 10:30 am

Ok…Looking at the pump jacks in the head photo. I see they are powered by electric motors with power lines leading to the pump battery. If the power lines are energized using wind and solar, what happens to the pump jacks if said wind and solar are not available…hmm?

It does not surprise me that “Exhibit A”[EA] and “Exhibit B” [EB] have no concept of what it takes to produce those lovely hydrocarbons. There is no “tap” that the oil and gas companies can turn to increase/decrease production. Unless EA and EB get educated about how the real world works, we have no chance of a rational energy policy.

AndyHce
Reply to  Gilbert K. Arnold
March 10, 2022 11:54 am

Quash EA and EB. Get them out of the circuit.

jeffery p
March 10, 2022 10:31 am

I don’t know how so-called experts can know so little unless perhaps their expertise is enviro talking points.

You can’t just turn on and off oil production at will like you’re getting water from a faucet. It costs money, lots of money to increase production and lots of money to shut down production. Without a stable energy policy, the oil companies rightly don’t want to spend billions to ramp up production only to be shut down again when the political climate changes. It’s basic economics. Exhibit B needs to audit some undergrad classes on business and basic economics.

As to converting to green energy, that can’t be done overnight, either. The green energy advocates want to phase out conventional energy sources without having the new infrastructure for green energy built out. Essentially Exhibit A wants to go into full speed ahead on what is little more than experimental or niche technology.

Gilbert K. Arnold
Reply to  jeffery p
March 10, 2022 10:41 am

Jeffery: No EB needs to take the classes for credit and pass them!

Last edited 2 months ago by Gilbert K. Arnold
Drake
Reply to  Gilbert K. Arnold
March 10, 2022 10:51 am

Nice thought Gilbert, but I think they could easily find a “University” that has a 100% pass rate at which to take the class.

Heck, thy probably already took the classes for credit and “passed”.

Final thought: With the current crop of “professors”, they would be preaching socialism, so what they believe would be what is taught NOW.

TonyL
Reply to  Gilbert K. Arnold
March 10, 2022 10:54 am

Indeed. Audit does nobody any good. A possibility of a big flunkout, a “Dean’s Letter”, orders to clean out your dorm room, hand in your room keys, and be gone, it is “game over”, you failed, will focus the mind.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  jeffery p
March 10, 2022 11:14 am

Net Zero is a pipe dream…

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Gregory Woods
March 12, 2022 1:12 am

CO2 is dangerously low. Half it and the planet dies.
Around 1000ppm looks ideal, sadly there are not enough fossil fuels available to reach this ideal climate.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  jeffery p
March 10, 2022 1:41 pm

It is impossible to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar, even if there was a means to store electricity for free, in unlimited quantity, and in a way which allowed it to be used at any rate desired.
It is a simple matter of energy density.
Also, we simply do not have the requisite raw materials to build out enough wind turbines or solar panels even if we had the space for enough of them to do the job, and were willing to ruin everything we would need to ruin in order to use that space.
On top of that, we can in no way obtain the required massive amounts of raw materials for such a build-out, without using massive amounts of fossil fuels, even if the same people insisting on “green power” would not also block the massive mining effort that would be needed to go and find and exploit the needed materials. Which of course they will.

No one can build a single panel or wind turbine using nothing but energy and materials obtained from the power made by turbines and panels.
That fact alone proves the folly of the entire useless charade.

These insane horses’ asses do not even realize that nuclear and hydro are the only two non-CO2 emitting sources of base-load scale power that we are able to produce, and want to eliminate those two as well.

It begins to appear that putting a mentally ill teenaged girl who dropped out of middle school in charge of the world’s energy policy may not have been such a great idear.

Last edited 2 months ago by Nicholas McGinley
Richard Page
Reply to  jeffery p
March 11, 2022 3:24 am

Another problem, and one rarely mentioned, is the time lag with developing a well – obtaining a lease and test drilling when the price is favourable might be a brilliant idea, but it can take years to get to the point of extracting a flow of oil and, in that time, there could be a glut and price crash. If you’ve invested heavily in a well then sitting on production until the price goes up is not an option so selling at the best price possible is the only choice. Not only is it impossible to instantly turn the taps on or off but production is usually at least a year or two behind the demand curve.

Steve Case
March 10, 2022 10:34 am

About halfway through, the term “Dunning Kruger Effect” came to mind.

Drake
Reply to  Steve Case
March 10, 2022 10:53 am

OK, I don’t remember that from Psy 101, but that would apply to EVERY leftist I have ever spoken to, regardless of their level of “education”.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Drake
March 12, 2022 1:14 am

Will Shakespeare had that right.
The Fool doth think himself to be a wise man, while the wise man knows himself to be a fool.

Tom.1
March 10, 2022 10:35 am

There is a certain class of people who have a pathological hatred for oil companies. There is nothing short of them all going out of business that would please them more except possibly for having them all taken over by the government. That has worked out well for Venezuela, so why not try it here. When there are supply disruptions and prices go up it’s either because of price gouging or willful underproduction. And they still want them out of business in order to save the climate. Politicians of one particular stripe like to cultivate this crowd. It is pathetic.

Ed Zuiderwijk
Reply to  Tom.1
March 10, 2022 10:43 am

It would be very bad news for whales as well, which would become the primary source of oil again.

Drake
Reply to  Tom.1
March 10, 2022 10:55 am

Please stop talking about BigOilBob when he hasn’t commented on the post.

He has no defense for his hatred, but he will try anyway.

TonyL
Reply to  Drake
March 10, 2022 11:24 am

Harpooning big white ones, comes to mind.

TallDave
Reply to  Tom.1
March 10, 2022 12:45 pm

also now the villains in both Marvel and Bourne series

the people who spent their lives hating oil companies are going to feel a bit silly if ECS < 2

or more likely, they won’t

Last edited 2 months ago by TallDave
Duker
Reply to  Tom.1
March 10, 2022 1:35 pm

Norway too has a state owned oil company. Aramco is of course state owned

Wade
Reply to  Tom.1
March 10, 2022 1:49 pm

I am not sure that it is hatred for oil companies. I believe it is hatred of people. The hate the “deplorables” and “people with unacceptable views” — which is to say anyone not part of their cabal or anyone with an opinion different than theirs.

Since they hate people, they also hate things that make people’s lives better. That would be oil. And genetically modified crops. And pesticides/herbicides that work. And meat. And traditional families. Anything good for mankind must go. (I’ve offended them because I didn’t say womankind.)

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Wade
March 11, 2022 8:17 am

Aren’t there at least six types of gender these days? You’ve offended them all.

markl
March 10, 2022 10:46 am

So how long will it take before the general public realizes you can’t get there from here in the time frame necessary to increase oil production enough to lower gasoline prices today? Then how long will it take before they realize that energy independence is important in a volatile world and for a robust economy? Given that the MSM is spewing propaganda instead of facts I say never.

AndyHce
Reply to  markl
March 10, 2022 11:58 am

Perhaps the propaganda is simply the leading edge of a ramp up for a campaign to nationalize the oil industry. That has never happened anywhere before, has it?

Brandon Galt
Reply to  markl
March 11, 2022 4:55 am

I would agree….except that our gas prices spike on the ANNOUNCEMENT of potential shortages, not actual shortages.
I would think that our gas prices should plummet on the ANNOUNCEMENT of the resumption of a pipeline, or the announcement of the rapid approvals of leases and permits for drilling.
It’s a commodity.

Doug
March 10, 2022 11:10 am

” These high-profile/well-connected/government-friendly commentators have no clue what they are talking about with respect to hydrocarbon production. Zero.”

Your point about there being no on/off switch is important. When oil prices were low to negative we kept producing a waterflood project at considerable loss, so as to not damage the entire secondary recovery effort. We just had to keep it going and hope for a price rebound.

rah
March 10, 2022 11:26 am

comment image

Bill Toland
Reply to  rah
March 11, 2022 2:06 am

Unfortunately, Joe Biden has the reverse Midas touch. Everything he touches turns to shit.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Bill Toland
March 12, 2022 1:08 am

That’s a feature, not a glitch.

Sunsettommy(@sunsetmpoutlookcom)
Editor
March 10, 2022 11:27 am

From the post,

“Where this gets really interesting is in the frightening depths of ignorance underpinning the thought processes of both. The disconnect between the way the world really works and what is going on between their ears is truly disturbing.”

===

Actually, I think they have a fair idea since one of them is part of the industry and educated too.

What I see is that people who behave the way you describe are BELEIVERS who will reject contrary evidence because nothing yes NOTHING! can get past the ideology they swallowed deeply by their political masters who brainwashed them.

I have seen this behavior for years now and saw it vividly in a forum debate in the last 10 days where they continually ignore what Dr. Marcott stated about the uptick in the chart and ignore the fact that it has been cooling for around 6 years now by Satellite data that they are so clueless about resolution values of proxy data they are so sucked up by the nonsense that they are mostly too far gone from reality and living comfortably in the Twilight Zone.

The truth isn’t being pursued which is why they can make total fools of themselves in public and not be aware of it.

Last edited 2 months ago by Sunsettommy
March 10, 2022 11:42 am

The Groningen Gas field was discovered in 1959 and production went just fine until 1986, then the eathquakes started, they increased more and more and production in the most affected area was stopped in 2018.
Yes there is still a gas reserve in the affected area, but there is also the risk of increasing eathquakes if production is resumed there.

Duker
Reply to  Hans Erren
March 10, 2022 1:29 pm

Just wondering if the Netherlands dewatering all their polders ( since the 1950s) and turning into farmland produced any changes as the weight of water was removed ?

Reply to  Duker
March 10, 2022 10:13 pm

No in fact the dewatering caused extra land subsidence, because the subsoil is peat, which compacts with drainage.

Richard Page
Reply to  Hans Erren
March 11, 2022 3:14 am

So this does mildly intrigue me; how do they tell the difference between drilling subsidence and groundwater extraction subsidence? The reason I ask is that I did a small amount of reading after your initial post and saw that the problems associated with Groningen included tremors, subsidence and problems with the water table. If the last 2 are also attributable to groundwater extraction then how are the causes identified and separated?

Old Man Winter
March 10, 2022 12:06 pm

Environmentalism is nothing but a fervent religious cult where the ONLY
thing that matters is dedication to the cause. Whether or not what they
support or do makes sense or is good to do doesn’t even matter. Anyone
who doesn’t support them or opposes them is an evil heretic & must be
demonized as that hatred is what binds the group together in their quest for
a morally pure conscience. This is why they ALWAYS come up with the
stupid & nasty plans that they do.

Right now, we’re in an energy crisis solely due to bad environmentalist
policies already in place. Rather than working on effective solutions, all of
the Western countries will take Rahm Emanual’s advice- “a crisis is a
terrible thing to waste”. They’ll do things that will only further their agenda
& make things worse for their people, focused on rationing & punishing
“heretics” who doesn’t comply. I think Brandon’s “”Let them eat cake” buy
an EV” response will be typical. They’ll be able to get away with such
arrogance & coldheartedness because of a compliant press.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/robert-spencer/2022/03/08/bidens-handlers-want-skyrocketing-gas-prices-the-epa-just-revealed-why-n1564874

Felix
March 10, 2022 12:09 pm

What galls me the most is the underlying hypocrisy that capitalists are simultaneously (1) so greedily focused on profit to the exclusion of everything else, and (2) so blind and oblivious to profit that they can’t see it until it’s been pointed out to them by their woke betters.

bonbon
March 10, 2022 12:12 pm

Attention all searcher for truth :
DuckDuckGo CEO Gabriel Weinberg openly admitted on Twitter that his search engine company is manipulating results it considers Russian “disinformation.”

Looks like this alternative is already compromised….

ASTONERII
March 10, 2022 12:31 pm

off topic.

“Well–well look. I already told you: I deal with the god damm customers so the engineers don’t have to. I have people skills; I am good at dealing with people. Can’t you understand that? What the he11 is wrong with you people?”

So, what you are saying is that there is not a faucet to just turn the valve and more oil comes out?

Can’t we just get more oil containers and gas cylinders to make up the gap?

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  ASTONERII
March 12, 2022 1:17 am

You appear to need a ‘Sarc’ tag, sadly.

Gary Pearse
March 10, 2022 12:58 pm

Well, it’s good to see that an Atlas Shrugging would work very well to rid (at least for a generation) the designer-brained idiocy that has gripped the world. I know that arguing the science with clone school grads ain’t gonna work.

Getting them to focus on self preservation from the nightmare they have 100% created for themselves, and which is inexorably descending on them right now, seems to be the only ‘argument’ that will work. I thought like a pot of frogs on a slow burner they would go on until the end.

MARTIN BRUMBY
March 10, 2022 1:02 pm

Terry,

Impossible not to agree with all the points you make.

I’m a now-retired Chartered Engineer who spent my final 40 odd years working in the UK Coal industry, which despite some obvious problems, successfully produced cheap and reliable energy but was destroyed by GangGreen and our Beloved Leaders (and some poor management and by Scargill and his chums). I spent roughly 20 years building new mines, 20 years closing them safely.

Among the many things I regret is the fact that the head honchos of the Oil and Gas industries in thè UK were only too happy to see perhaps their main UK competitor destroyed.

Just look at that gormless twat John Browne CEO of BP.

Having seen some great colleagues (both management and the miners) thrown on the scrapheap and many decades worth of cheap energy sterilised, I find myself reminded of the quote from Brecht (?) “First they came for the Jews, but I didn’t worry because I wasn’t Jewish…”

I think I’m big enough to put that bitter taste behind me.

But, please Oil & Gas, take coal’s fate as a dreadful warning.

You have the muscle still and the wretched Putin has strengthened your position.

For the sake of the World’s most vulnerable, get a pair and take on head to head, GangGreen and their absurd and venal supporters in politics, in the media and in academia.

Hammer them all in like tent pegs!

Alexander Vissers
March 10, 2022 1:22 pm

Just to clarify, even the increased Groningen output is only a fraction of capacity output. The reason why extraction is stopped is unrelated to energy policy but only motivated by the induced earthquakes and related damages and risks in Groningen. Despite the earthquakes inhabitants of Groningen are now lobbying to open the taps just to frustrate Putin and support the Ukrainian people. Furthermore the bankruptcies following the fracking revolution have made the industry weary to invest on high price scenarios. At current gas prices a wide range of gasfields pay off but at last year’s prices a lot of drilling would not pay off.

RickWill
March 10, 2022 1:37 pm

Interesting and entertaining.

Canada is adopting the same path to exporting so-called “renewable” energy as Australia. It is in the form of “green” hydrogen. That is my response to this statement:

“have more renewables in our mix.” If you’re perplexed by that statement, you should be;

Australia’s assistant Reserve Bank Governor has just joined Twiggy Forrest’s venture into subsidy harvesting through “green” hydrogen. Forrest is Australia’s richest man. So his new harvesting project is being set up with the right sort of people to extract all those new easily made AUDs.

I reckon it will take a decade of dabbling and an inestimable investment, other than billions to trillions, to disprove the viability of the “green” hydrogen concept even in sun rich Australia. However Twiggy is set to extract billions from Australia’s new money production as he leads the charge to a dead end. He has a notable failure in his past but one very big win with iron ore with near perfect timing as China was emerging.

The prospects of coal miners are looking up as well as oil producers:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price?op=1

The sudden decline in Climate Ambition is hitting iron ore though:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price?op=1

The value of Australia’s coal exports could very well tip iron ore off the top shelf of exports if current prices are sustained. That is how it used to be before China emerged as the global manufacturer.

Nicholas McGinley
March 10, 2022 2:09 pm

Whatchou mean, “You people”?!

4 Eyes
March 10, 2022 2:42 pm

Agree with everything said. You could have added that it is the people who burn hydrocarbons that are killing the world, if in fact the world is being killed (I don’t think it is). People like hypocritical greenies and rich socialists who still use hydrocarbons everyday – pick on them.

Terry
March 10, 2022 3:20 pm

I’m sorry – you are so wrong about one thing. Justin Trudeau needs nobody’s assistance in stupid, being stupid, or talking stupid. His entire trip to Europe is no more than a photo opportunity. Canada has nothing to offer Europe or Ukraine other than platitudes. Thanks largely to Trudeau Canada’s fossil fuel weatln in locked in place. No facilities exist to move any of it to Europe, now or within 5 years, by which time the emergency will have ended, and vilification of fossil fuel production resumed with full fury.

March 10, 2022 6:36 pm

Where this gets really interesting is in the frightening depths of ignorance underpinning the thought processes of both. The disconnect between the way the world really works and what is going on between their ears is truly disturbing.”

That is obvious for all topics that are not, makeup, hair styling or how to punish the help. Ignorance is their strength in pontificating news.

Good article.

Andy Espersen
March 13, 2022 9:51 am

How did “a geopolitical oil/energy/climate expert professor/CNN commentator from a prestigious US university” ever attain to a wonderfully sounding, highly paid job like that, I wonder. Did anybody ever just check on his basic IQ? What was his academic background to justify his appointment – or was he perhaps just appointed from outside of academia because of his green credentials and his gift of the gab?

JamesD
March 14, 2022 8:40 am

There was this book, Atlas Shrugged, which showed how the producers were enabling the parasites. “You’ll find a way”. Until they didn’t, and society imploded.

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