The Week That Was: 2022-02-12 (February 12, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “To defeat relativity one did not need the word of 100 scientists, just one fact.” – attributed to Einstein
Number of the Week: 1,230 GW compared with 240 GW
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: On Monday, the Wall Street Journal published an article on the climate modeling performed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) which is a world leader. The article was striking because it illustrated how far behind NCAR’s thinking is in developing a model that will describe the massive amount of new evidence gathered over the past forty years on how the atmosphere is responding to increasing greenhouse gases, particularly human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). If models cannot describe what is happening in the atmosphere today, they cannot usefully forecast or predict what may happen in the future. The fear of a “climate crisis” is built on out-of-date information and models.
TWTW addresses the issue using modern atmospheric data (observations) taken by satellites. Unfortunately, climate modelers rely on data taken “the old-fashioned way” with instruments on the ground. These do not and cannot describe what is occurring in the atmosphere. The work of William Happer and William van Wijngaarden will be emphasized as explained simply by Howard Hayden.
If the American public is to be alarmed, it should be by the reports in Europe of the sharply increasing costs of energy, particularly electricity. Alternative energy promoters, including government entities, mislead the public by claiming the costs are coming down. It is not the cost of the wind turbine or solar panel that is important, it is the cost of reliable electricity. As reliable generators are closed due to government policy and market manipulation of electricity is becoming more expensive. Modern civilization requires reliable electricity, yet government policies in the US and in Europe favor unreliable electricity generation, making reliable generation unprofitable.
The US football season and the Winter Olympics are closing. Both gave climate fear promoters opportunities for propaganda.
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Worsening Errors: Probably unknown by the reporter, a February 6 article in the Wall Street Journal on climate modeling at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) illustrates what is wrong with US climate modeling and the climate modeling world as it responds to demands by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The article was titled “Climate Scientists Encounter Limits of Computer Models, Bedeviling Policy. Supercomputer simulations are running up against the complex physics of programming thousands of weather variables such as the extensive impact of clouds.” The beginning of the article reads:
“For almost five years, an international consortium of scientists was chasing clouds, determined to solve a problem that bedeviled climate-change forecasts for a generation: How do these wisps of water vapor affect global warming?
They reworked 2.1 million lines of supercomputer code used to explore the future of climate change, adding more-intricate equations for clouds and hundreds of other improvements. They tested the equations, debugged them, and tested again.
“The scientists would find that even the best tools at hand can’t model climates with the sureness the world needs as rising temperatures impact almost every region.
“When they ran the updated simulation in 2018, the conclusion jolted them: Earth’s atmosphere was much more sensitive to greenhouse gases than decades of previous models had predicted, and future temperatures could be much higher than feared—perhaps even beyond hope of practical remedy.”
Certainly, the complexity of the models is a problem to climate science. However, there is a deeper problem. The models must be tested against the best data, not only for assumptions but also for results. However, testing of results against physical evidence is not done.
The morning of the article, Ken Haapala posted the following in the comments section of the electronic version of the article:
“Another failure of BIG Science. NCAR ignores the scientific method which requires their hypotheses be tested against all relevant physical evidence. The effect of greenhouse gases occurs in the atmosphere. Forty-two years of comprehensive observations of the lower atmosphere show a modest warming of 0.13 C (0.23 F) per decade, far below what NCAR claims. NCAR ignores basic science.”
The Blog ICECAP posted the article along with video by Tony Heller on how surface data is distorted after the fact. Essentially NOAA changes history to suit political needs. Further, Sterling Burnett brought out additional errors in Environment & Climate News. But none of these criticisms really goes far enough.
The article states that the assumptions were carefully tested. But no matter how well the assumptions were tested, it is the results that count. The results are a warming higher than what was previously shown by atmospheric temperature trends to be far too high. The entire modeling process must be revamped, or the modeling community will continue to produce what modeler Mototaka Nakamura identified, as quoted in last week’s TWTW. Nakamura wrote:
“…climate simulation models are fine tools to study the climate system, so long as the users are aware of the limitations of the models and exercise caution in designing experiments and interpreting their output.”
“The models just become useless pieces of junk or worse (worse, in a sense that they can produce gravely misleading output) only when they are used for climate forecasting.”
“All climate simulation models have many details that become fatal flaws when they are used as climate forecasting tools, especially for mid- to long-term (several years and longer) climate variations and changes.”
“It means that they are also completely useless for assessing the effects of the past atmospheric carbon dioxide increase on the climate. I myself used to use climate simulation models for scientific studies, not for predictions, and learned about their problems and limitations in the process.”
TWTW is not optimistic that government funded modelers are capable of making the necessary changes. Their funding is dependent on continuing promoting fears of climate change. There is no question that we don’t understand cloud formation. However, for NCAR modelers to assume that understanding cloud formation will result in higher estimates of warming from CO2 emissions is absurd. Other than high altitude cirrus clouds, in general clouds have a cooling effect, lowering daytime high temperatures by reflecting sunlight back to space. Whatever the warming effect may be (by slowing nighttime heat loss), it is overcome by the cooling effect. Heatwaves are caused by continued clear skies from stagnant high-pressure systems, not cloudy nights. Yet, the NCAR press release of the updated models claimed: “Increased warming in latest generation of climate models likely caused by clouds.”
It is doubtful that the new $40 million supercomputer being installed in Cheyanne, Wyoming, for NCAR will be used for anything but promoting fear of climate change, and climate science will continue to stagnate. At least the new supercomputer has an appropriate name: “Derecho.” (Spanish for “straight.) A Derecho is a fast-moving line of intense storms that can blow down trees and power lines and disrupt electrical power for days or weeks at a time. The fear of climate change is doing that. See Article # 1, links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy and last week’s TWTW.
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A Better Way, Continued: Last week, TWTW began a series proposing a better way to understand the greenhouse effect than what is used by the IPCC and its followers. The better procedure is shown in the work of W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer in their paper titled: “Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases,” discussed in the January 22, 2022, TWTW. As Tom Sheahen points out, the paper is especially important because it shows a remarkable agreement between theory and observations under significantly different conditions: the Sahara, the Mediterranean, and the Antarctic.
The theory of how greenhouse gases influence global temperatures is not sufficiently developed to be considered all inclusive. A theory for cloud formation is needed. It is not unusual to make accurate observations and calculations and use them before a full understanding of a concept is established. For example, 16th century Danish astronomer Tycho Brahe believed the controversy between believers in an Earth centered universe (Ptolemaic system) and a Sun centered solar system (Copernican system) could be resolved by accurate measurements of the planets, even before advent of the telescope. After his death, his assistant Johannes Kepler used these observations to develop Kepler’s laws of planetary motion without fully understanding gravity. Later Newton co-developed calculus, particularly integral calculus, to better explain planetary motion (including moons) and universal gravitation.
What is important here is that the calculations being advanced are reliable and testable against physical evidence, which Sheahen demonstrates. Howard Hayden expands the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer in a pair of papers posted on the SEPP website. In his January newsletter, The Energy Advocate, Hayden incorporates the measurements of infrared radiation to space by the Nimbus satellite over Guam on April 27, 1970. Guam is in the Pacific Ocean, east of the Philippines, roughly 13.5°N latitude, well within the tropics. Thus, the polar regions, temperate regions, tropics, and deserts are covered by these measurements.
Using the Planck and Schwarzschild curves provided by van Wijngaarden and Happer, Hayden explains that the greenhouse effect is the difference between the blackbody infrared radiation from the surface (Planck curve) and the radiation going to space (Schwarzschild jagged line) measured by satellites. [Both can be seen in Happer’s November 16, 2021, presentation to CLINTEL (Dec 11, 2021, TWTW)]
Both Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and Water Vapor absorb infrared radiation in the same frequencies as the primary frequencies for Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Hayden calculates the absorption from CO2 to be about 20% of the total greenhouse effect. He calculates that doubling CO2 from 400 parts per million volume (ppm) to 800 ppm adds about one percentage point to this. Thus, CO2 goes from 20% of the total greenhouse effect to 21% — not much! It is not worth destroying modern civilization for this. Hayden goes on to explain the Planetary Energy Balance which applies to everything that orbits the sun. That, and the Climate Constraint Equation will be further explained next week.
Important side note: the wavelengths covered by infrared radiation range from about 1 centimeter to about 0.0004 centimeter (2500 per centimeter). These wavelengths are divided into about one-third of a million little rectangles permitting calculations of the areas under a curve. [Also, small changes in wavelengths along the electromagnetic spectrum are often called spectral bands. Special instruments such as spectrometers can measure small differences in frequency.] Those who remember integral calculus may remember the introduction where it is shown that by calculating the area in little rectangles under a curve and adding them together, one can approximate the total area underneath the curve. Using HITRAN, Van Wijngaarden and Happer make these calculations on a laptop not a $40 million supercomputer. Nonetheless, their calculations are much more realistic than those of BIG science. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and the January 22, 2022, TWTW.
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Innumeracy: Innumeracy can be defined as illiteracy in numbers. Far too often government entities use numbers without understanding what they mean. One example is stating that the warming potential of methane is, say, 50 times that of carbon dioxide. However, as shown by Hayden and many others, the warming potential of carbon dioxide varies greatly with concentration. The higher the concentration, the less effective it is. [Somewhat akin to the economists’ law of diminishing returns, but more dramatic.] By 180 parts per million volume (180 ppm) the peak effectiveness of CO2 is well past.
[At concentrations this low, some plant life would struggle and die out in parts of the globe. This is particularly true for C3 plants that are not as effective in using carbon dioxide in photosynthesis and under stress such as drought as well as C4 plants. C3 plants include some of the most important sources of calories all over the world: cowpea, cassava, soybean, and rice. Thus, regulatory schemes to reduce carbon dioxide may be contrary to plant life.]
As with carbon dioxide, the effectiveness of methane in increasing temperatures is non-linear. But its effectiveness is tiny because in the lower atmosphere (troposphere) water vapor already interferes with the infrared radiation that methane absorbs and re-emits. Above the tropopause, where water freezes out, methane is chemically broken down by oxidation.
The recent fad of claiming that methane is dangerous often demonstrates innumeracy. According to the EPA page on Methane: “Pound for pound, the comparative impact of CH4 is 25 times greater than CO2 over a 100-year period.” The cited source is IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Since any functions describing the warming influence of methane and CO2 are both non-linear, the ratio of their values cannot be a constant. Anyone who uses a constant simply does not understand the temperature impacts of different greenhouse gases. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up, https://www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane, and https://ripe.illinois.edu/blog/difference-between-c3-and-c4-plants
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How Much? The public in Europe is beginning to experience the high costs of going green. Pierre Gosselin writes:
“According to new data from the German Association of Energy and Water Industries, German households paid an average of 36.19 [Euro] cents for a kilowatt hour in January 2022.” [About 41.1 US cents. The average US household cost is about 10.4 cents per kilowatt hour.]
“According to FOCUS, consumer electricity costs significantly less in neighboring countries like Italy, where the price 25 euro-cents, or in Switzerland, Austria and Luxembourg where it is about 23 cents.”
According to The Daily Upside, the UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem, the UK independent National Regulatory Authority) announced an increase in the price cap for consumer electricity:
“When the price cap is raised in April, Ofgem estimates as many as 1 in 10 people in the UK will fall into ‘energy poverty’ — which means spending over 10% of income on heat and electricity. 2.2 million people already fit the definition, and that will triple to 6.6 million.”
TWTW is uncertain about the exact numbers, but a big price increase is coming to the UK. Of course, the bureaucrats’ solution to problems their policy creates is to punish the people, in this case blaming the lack of spare capacity when going green. Paul Homewood writes:
“In any properly managed electricity supply system there should be more than enough spare capacity to cope with all eventualities. If OFGEM believe they need to reduce peak demand, that clearly will not be the case in future.” See links under Questioning European Green.
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A Match? Apparently, the Secretary of Energy of the Biden Administration believes she must exceed the destructive policies of the UK and EU. In her opening remarks at a U.S.-EU Energy Council Ministerial, she said:
“No country has been held hostage to access to the sun. No country has been hostage to the wind. This is not just an energy and climate issue; it is also potentially the greatest peace plan that ever existed, to be able to build energy independence from clean energy.”
“So, the faster we move, the faster we complete the clean energy transition, The faster we’ll be able to deliver more affordable energy, more diverse energy, more reliable power and true energy independence and therefore security.”
“Not to mention the economic growth and the jobs we will create.”
Does the Secretary understand the Sun will go down at night and the wind will blow erratically no matter what she says? Diverse energy will come from the shutdown of coal, natural gas and nuclear? The arrogance is amazing! See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Solar Powered Helicopters and Wind Powered Tanks? The Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations has come out with a report on the army going to net zero, as directed by the Biden Administration.
Marc Morano of Climate Depot had comments that were directly on:
“John Horgan, the director of the Center for Science Writings at the Stevens Institute of Technology, explained, ‘In spite of the recent surge in violence in the Middle East, war-related casualties have fallen over the last half-century, as temperatures have risen…
“A 2013 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that cold eras were dark times in Eastern Europe. ‘Some of Eastern Europe’s greatest wars and plagues over the last millennium coincided with cold periods,’ explained a summary of the study in Science News.”
Frankly, having read many Army reports, Haapala concludes that this Army report reads as a classic in “Let’s kick the can down the road, let the next set of generals worry about it.” See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy.
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Propaganda Moments: The Winter Olympics are being held in Beijing, one of the world’s most populous city, at the northern tip of the North China Plain. In the winter, the climate is cold and dry. This winter it is cold and dry. The Chinese adjusted by creating artificial snow. This weather led to climate crisis propagandists declaring that the winter Olympics are unfit for temperate regions.
In sunny southern California, the weather is very warm. On Sunday, Los Angeles is hosting the popular American football Super Bowl. On February 10, the Los Angeles Times reported:
“…before we turn to the top of the news, here’s a weather report: It’s warm. In our outdoors newsletter the Wild, Mary Forgione noted the early blooms bursting out on the evergreen pear trees in L.A. neighborhoods. They’re making it feel like spring, she said. Well, spring’s over and now it’s summer. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory, warning of temperatures from 85 to 90 degrees. Part of the reason for the rare wintertime advisory is for the sake of Super Bowl visitors, said an NWS meteorologist. They might not be prepared to swelter in Southern California in February.”
The Saturday temperature forecast is a maximum of 87 °F (30.5 °C) around 2 pm local time. After that it cools. The beginning of the game is scheduled for 3:30 pm local time. The solar generation graphs from the California ISO for February 11-12 show that by 3 pm solar generation begins its rapid fall to zero which it achieves around 5 pm. The temperature cools as well. So much for heat causing “sweltering in Southern California” during the Super Bowl. See http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.aspx
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Number of the Week: 1,230 GW compared with 240 GW. Paul Homewood writes:
“Researchers with the [Chinese] State Grid Corporation expect another 150 GW of new coal-fired power capacity to be built over the 2021-2025 period, bringing the total [to be built] to 1,230 GW.”
By comparison: the American Public Power Association 2021 report states that the US coal nameplate generation capacity is 240 GW. Granted that some of the new Chinese capacity will be more efficient ultra-critical coal fired power plants, does it make any sense for the US Government to continue its campaign against reliable, US coal-fired power plants when China is building coal-fired power plants totaling far greater carbon dioxide emissions. See links under https://www.publicpower.org/system/files/documents/Americas-Electricity-Generation-Capacity_2021-update.pdf and Problems in the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
5 Nigerian Physicists Predict Global Cooling In The Next 80 Years: 2100 Will Be 0.5°C Colder Than 2018
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 7, 2022
Link to paper: Prediction of Solar Cycles: Implication for the Trend of Global Surface Temperature
By Efiong A. Ibanga, Communication in Physical Sciences, Dec 30, 20020
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/214-Article%20Text-606-1-10-20211003.pdf
Yes, that sun
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 9, 2022
Link to paper: Atmospheric ionization and cloud radiative forcing
By Henrik Svensmark, J. Svensmark, M Enhoff & N. Shaviv, Nature, Scientific Reports, Oct 11, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions
By Richard S. Lindzen, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 3, 2020
Climate Change and CO2 Not a Problem
By William Happer, CLINTEL lecture, Nov 16, 2021
With transcript and images from Feb 2021 presentation, by Ron Clutz, Via Science Matters, Dec 4, 2021
Climate Alarmist Claim Fact Checks
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Feb 7, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/alarmist_claim_rebuttals_updated/
Climate Scientists Encounter Computer Models’ Limits
Complexity of thousands of weather variables bedevils policy
By Staff, ICECAP, Feb 7, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/climate_scientists_encounter_computer_models_limits1/
[SEPP Comment: With link to Tony Heller’s video on how NOAA manipulates surface data used in the models.]
Climate Change Weekly #425: Climate Model Problems Persist, Changes Reduce Accuracy Further
By H. Sterling Burnett, Environment & Climate News, Feb 10, 2022
The IPCC CO2 Climate Narrative: A “Behemoth On Clay Feet” …Ready To Collapse
By Fred Mueller, Via No Tricks Zone, Feb 6, 2022
“Corals have done well at much higher temperatures, CO2 levels”
New Study: There Is No Extreme Precipitation, Drought, Flood, Hurricane, Tornado….Climate Crisis
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 10, 2022
Link to paper: A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times
of global warming
By Gianluca Alimonti et al. The European Physical Journal, Jan 13, 2022
U.S. Energy Secretary Ties Renewables To World Peace
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, Feb 8, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Unreliable electricity is key to world peace?? Unreal!!]
Understanding long-term changes to global ecosystems
By Dashoff, Eckert, & Zelenski, NSF, Feb 9, 2022
Increased warming in latest generation of climate models likely caused by clouds
News Release, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Via Phys.org, June 24, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
By Gerald A. Meehl, et al, AAAS Science Advances, June 24, 2020
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
RCP with your coffee?
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 9, 2022
US household air conditioning use could exceed electric capacity in next decade due to climate change
By Staff Writers, University Park PA (SPX). Feb 07, 2022
Link to paper: Implications of Increasing Household Air Conditioning Use Across the United States Under a Warming Climate
By Renee Obringer, et al. Earth’s Future, Dec 29, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Declining capacity is due to climate change? And the solution is unreliable electricity that fails on hot, still nights?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate Hype Leads to Climate Anxiety and Undermines Constructive Efforts
By Cliff Mass, His Blog, Feb 8, 2022
“There is a lot of talk that folks need to “follow the science.” Fine, let’s do so. Science does not suggest that global warming will lead to the end of humanity or even the termination of mankind’s progression towards longer, healthier, and better lives.”
Just What Is CH For?
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 9, 2022
Change in US Administrations
Biden’s Transportation Department Puts Restrictions on Infrastructure Bill Projects
By Staff, IER, Feb 9, 2022
“If you thought that the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill passed by Congress last year would fix America’s roads and bridges, think again. Only $40 billion in the bill is allocated to roads and bridges with just $26.5 billion for fixing the nation’s bridges. The $40 billion is a pittance compared to the $156 billion for mass transit and rail that the bill funds despite low ridership that was made even worse than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic.”
Biden is disconnected from American’s reluctance to be regulated out of fossil fuel prosperity
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, Feb 5, 2022
Biden Hitwoman’s Poison Pen Stops Twin Metals Mine
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Feb 7, 2022
China To Add 150 GW Of Coal Power Capacity By 2025
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 11, 2022
China Power Data 2021
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 11, 2022
Link to: China Portal I
Tracking China’s transition to sustainable energy | Powered by crowdsourced translation, Jan 27, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
The New All-Time Maximum Temperature Record for Washington State. And the Latest Forecast
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 11, 2022
Podcast
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Are Climate Skeptics the Next to be Declared Terrorists?
By Eric Worrall with preface by Charles, Feb 9, 2022
Boris Went Alarmist, but Thatcher went Skeptic (and she was right)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Feb 7, 2022
Changing Weather
La Nina Conditions Continue Across the Equatorial Pacific
By Paul Dorian, WUWT, Feb 20, 2022
The Stable Climate Of 1859
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 11, 2022
February 10, 1493, Hurricane
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 10, 2022
February 2, 1976 – 15 Foot Flood And Hurricane Force Winds In Maine
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Bangor is on the Penobscot River about 20 km from the ocean]
Changing Seas
Seawater seep may be speeding glacier melt, sea level rise
Warm seawater that’s seeping under certain glaciers could eventually lead to sea level rise that’s double that of existing estimates.
Press Release, Georgia Institute of Technology, Feb 9, 2022
Link to paper: Layered seawater intrusion and melt under grounded ice
By Alexander A. Robe, The Cryosphere, Feb 8, 2022
“The melting of ice sheets at the points where they float on and along the world’s oceans is a major climate culprit when it comes to sea level rise.”
[SEPP Comment: Occurring for the past 18 to 20 thousand years.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Ravaged
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 9, 2022
“And in a Daily Telegraph story urging us to celebrate Frank Hurley, the daredevil who photographed Earnest Shackleton’s nearly disastrous 1914 Antarctic expedition, we hear that someone else plans to ‘chronicle a territory increasingly ravaged by climate change.’ Ravaged! Genghis Climate strikes again! Which makes it unsporting to mention that Antarctica is actually cooling even further, or that when climate experts went on a PR expedition in 2014 to retrace Antarctica explorations to show how it’s so much warmer now it ended up with the nitwits encased in ice and begging for rescue.”
Statement of polar bear population size estimates by polar bear scientists in 1965
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 10, 2022
Archive of IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group status and meeting reports back to 1965
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 9, 2022
“The IUCN/SCC Polar Bear Specialist Group have recently modernized their website, which apparently required them to remove all meeting reports and status documents going back to 1968. Since I had downloaded all of them for my own research, I have archived them here for anyone wishing to assess the accuracy of statements made by PGSG members about what they did or said in the past, or to understand the history of the organization.”
Changing Earth
Study: As tectonic plates pull apart, what drives the formation of rifts?
By Staff Writers, Buffalo NY (SPX), Feb 09, 2022
Link to paper: Solid as a rock: Tectonic control of graben extension and dike propagation
By S. Kolzenburg; et al. Geology, Nov 22, 2021
Lowering Standards
The sunburnt lands up north: Cape Dorset
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 9, 2022
Why oh why won’t you look up?
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 9, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
All downhill from here
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 9, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Antarctic research links warming to fish decline
Press Release by David Malmquist, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Feb 9, 2022
Link to paper: Climate drives long-term change in Antarctic Silverfish along the western Antarctic Peninsula
By Andrew D. Corso, et al. Nature, Communications Biology, Feb 3, 2022 {H/t Bernie Kepshire]
[SEPP Comment: The study is limited to the western Antarctic Peninsula, which is tiny compared to the continent and subject to geothermal warming.]
Extreme weather research shows household income impacts of Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy
Scientists looked at which populations saw the most economic harm from the two storms
Press Release, NSF, Feb 9, 2022
Link to paper: Structural path analysis of extreme weather events: An application to Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy
By Yuri Mansur, et al. Applied Geography, Applied Geography, November 2021
“While the well-off suffered the most from Superstorm Sandy, the poor appeared most vulnerable in Katrina’s aftermath.”
[SEPP Comment: The New Orleans major refused to evacuate the city and later was found guilty of embezzling funds for construction of flood barriers.]
The Misrepresentation Of The Scientific Consensus On Climate Change
By Iain Aitken, WUWT, Feb 10, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
We finally figured out the answer
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 9, 2022
“Reuters reports that the UN Secretary General recently demanded we crank global governance up to 11, since evidently whatever that world-governmenty thing that meets in New York has been doing up to now isn’t enough.”
Gas Stove Alarmism Fails
By Roger Donway, Master Resource, Feb 11, 2022
Who Needs Russian Gas? We’ve Got Windmills!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 7, 2022
Headline in the article in UK Express: “UK primed to replace Russia as EU’s main energy exporter in the huge post-Brexit economy boost
“THE UK’S incredible green energy capabilities could allow it to replace Russia as a major energy exporter to the EU, Express.co.uk can exclusively reveal.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Politico: 97% of Left Leaning Voters Want Climate Action
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 9, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Selling the Dying Great Barrier Reef
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Feb 12, 2022
Methane Spikes!
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 10, 2022
Methane Causes Half Of Global Warming–IPCC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 5, 2022
Link to: Global Methane Assessment: Benefits and Costs of Mitigating Methane Emissions
By Staff, Climate & Clean Air Coalition and UN Environmental Program, 2021
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/GMA%20(2).pdf
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Date set for first youth-led climate trial in U.S. history
In Held v. State of Montana, 16 youth plaintiffs have sued the state over its energy policy, alleging that fossil fuel development accelerates climate change.
By Lucas Thompson, NBC News, Feb 7, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Nothing like the critical thinking skills of teenagers. No doubt, the guiding adults involved are using this as a “teaching moment.”]
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
More Protests on the Way Unless Cancel Culture Ends
By Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, America Out Loud, Feb 9, 2022
Slackers of the world, unite
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 9, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate Tyrants’ New Tactics
By Richard Morrison, Law and Liberty, Feb 9, 2022
U.S. Army’s first climate plan calls to slash emissions and build electric vehicle fleet
By Emma Newburger, CNBC, Feb 8, 2022
Link to: United States Army: Climate Strategy
By Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment, February 2022
We’re saved! U.S. Army sets 2050 net-zero emissions goal – ‘The time to address climate change is now’
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Feb 8, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Agriculture Department to put $1 billion toward climate-friendly farming
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 7, 20222
[SEPP Comment: Will the return on investment be above zero with no accounting tricks?]
Business Schools Must Do More to Address the Climate Crisis
By Concepción Galdón, et al. Harvard Business Review, Feb 1, 2022
Summary. Business schools have much to contribute to the fight against climate change. They are experts in organizational transformation, performance measurement, operations, marketing, leadership, and governance. A group of eight business schools has come together to find ways in which business schools can collaborate to forge a community of responsible and educated business leaders.
[SEPP Comment: We are experts in … Ignorance of the Scientific Method???]
Government needs to get a grip on energy crisis
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Feb 10, 2022
Germany Electricity Prices Soar To World Record Highs After Years Of Energy Policy Folly…Expensive, Unreliable
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 9, 2022
Homes risk energy rating downgrade if they install a heat pump
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 7, 2022
Home Truths From Dieter Helm
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 11, 2022
“Throughout the interview, Helm emphasises that to transform the economy to Net Zero will be extremely expensive, and that anybody claiming otherwise is lying.
“But I loved this bit at the end:
“WR: We’ve also been told that if we do cut carbon, we’ll avoid the costs that come with climate change, you know, the flooding, the storms, all that stuff. Is that true?
“DH: It’s complete nonsense, right! You know, the UK is responsible for about 1% of global emissions.
“The BBC won’t be inviting Dieter back on in a hurry!!”
Six North Sea oil and gas fields to be fired up amid Cabinet row over net zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Not a Rare to Spare
By Staff, Doomberg, Feb 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A major problem to the “green, clean economy.”]
South America’s ‘lithium fields’ reveal the dark side of our electric future
By Maeve Campbell, Euronews.green, Feb 10, 2022
See immediately link above.
Minnesotans feel the pain from rising energy costs
By Isaac Orr, American Experiment, Feb 4, 2022
Litigation Issues
Federal Judge Annuls Massive Gulf Of Mexico Lease Sale
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Jan 28, 2022
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Green levies and the cost-of-living crisis
By John Constable, Director of Energy, Net Zero Watch, Feb 9, 2022
Link to factsheet: The cost of green levies
By John Constable, Net Zero Watch, 2022
“There is no upside to the green levies. They increase UK household energy bills, they increase the cost of living in the UK, they depress wages and rates of employment, and the benefitting industries of wind and solar are predominantly overseas. It’s time the green levies were scrapped.”
[SEPP Comment: Any supposed “climate benefit” is outweighed by increasing CO2 from China and the Far East!]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Meeting With MP
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: An explanation of UK subsidies and Homewood’s suggestions of reducing the burden to households. Management of intermittency is a big and growing problem in energy bills and is estimated to be at least £2bn. It is not included in cost estimates by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Energy Bills in the UK Will Rise a Cruel and Unusual 54% in April
An afternoon spot of tea might soon come with an afternoon spot of energy, as struggling Britons seek to ration power during the largest utility.
By Staff, The Daily Upside, Feb 3, 2022 [H/t Cooler Heads]
National Grid scheme to ration households’ power use at peak times
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2022
Smart meter overhaul to open gates for ‘surge pricing’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 9, 2022
Smart meters are a symbol of the elite drive to nudge Britain into submission
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 11, 2022
Clean North Sea Gas v Dirty Russian Gas
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 5, 2022
Carbon Pricing Is Now Forcing Electricity Prices Higher
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 10, 2022
Energy Issues — US
Excess Generating Capacity
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 8, 2022
“Why has consumption remained steady while population has increased?”
“The role of the RTO/ISOs in this process has been unmistakable. The regional transmission organizations and independent system operators (RTO/ISO) have been instrumental in adding wind and solar by using auctions that are rigged in favor of wind and solar.”
Climate change could lead to blackouts, higher power costs on U.S. West Coast
Studies offer preview of what electricity consumers on the West Coast could experience
Press Release, NSF, Jan 18, 2022
Link to questionable papers of the future: The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast
By Joy Hill, et al. Earth’s Future, Dec 7, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Summary states the false assumption: “Electric power systems are already strongly influenced by extreme weather, and climate change could make this problem worse.” Unreliable wind and solar will not improve the situation.]
Commentary: RGGI is climatically meaningless
By Patrick J. Michaels, Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star, Feb 8, 2022
Virginia Withdrawing From The Northeast’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 10, 2022
Oil-fired generators helped meet electric demand in New England this January
By M. Tyson Brown, et al. EIA, Feb 10, 2022
Pennsylvania Power Plant Closures Would Cause Real Harm for Illusory Environmental Gains
By Gordon Tomb, CO2 Coalition, Feb 8, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Jump In The Line – Venture Global’s Plaquemines Project Could Lead Next Wave Of U.S. LNG Development
By Lindsay Schneider, RBN Energy, Feb 3, 2022
Natural Gas Export Limits and the Brownsville U-Turn
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, Feb 09, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Avoiding Washington’s ignorant laws and regulations.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Fusion Energy Breakthrough: Record Performance Achieved at JET
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Feb 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: 5 second pulse, no net increase in energy.]
Nuclear Energy Rises to the Net-Zero Challenge
By Theodore J. Garrish, Real Clear Energy, Feb 09, 2022
[SEPP Comment: But the greens don’t want reliable electricity for the general public, only for themselves!]
TVA Unveils Major New Nuclear Program, First SMR at Clinch River Site
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Feb 20, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind Intermittency Driving Higher Prices
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2022
Scotland roars ahead on floating wind but delivery risks lurk
By Neil Ford , Reuters, Events, Renewables, Feb 9, 2022
“The ScotWind lease auction has placed Scotland at the forefront of floating wind investment but clearer plans for UK subsidies and offshore transmission are required to cement a world-leading supply chain, experts said.”
“As Anti-Wind Zoning Ordinances Spread Across Michigan” (grass-root environmentalists vs. energy sprawl)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Feb 10,2022
Renewable Energy Future Includes DERs to Support Decarbonization
By Andy Bennett, Power Mag, Feb 20, 2022
“All market indicators show that distributed energy resources (DERs) boom will continue into this year and beyond. In fact, a recent Frost & Sullivan report states the global annual investments in DERs will increase by 75% by 2030. We’ve seen many advancements contributing to the growth of the renewable energy market, due to the convergence of decreased cost in DERs and legislation pushed by the Biden administration.”
[SEPP Comment: Just like US home prices in the first decade of the 21st century, until they collapsed.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
How Dare You Want A Car!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 7, 2022
A plaything for the rich
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Feb 10, 2022
Link to dataset: The rEV index
By Staff, Economist, 2022
“What is worse, once you have bought one, it costs 32% more to run each year. The research predates the recent energy price crisis, so they are currently an even worse buy than the figures suggest.
“That being the case, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that EVs remain a plaything for the wealthy, and the fanatical few.”
Postmaster general defends plan to purchase gas-powered trucks, citing ‘dire’ financial situation
By Rachel Scully, The Hill, Feb 8, 2022
[SEPP Comment: To some in Congress, costs mean nothing.]
National Grid to drain electric car batteries at times of peak demand
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Why won’t the car start in the morning? The smart grid stole the juice!]
Are electric cars the new ‘diesel scandal’ waiting to happen?- Bjorn Lomborg
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2022
Price Shock: Mercedes Hybrid Driver Stunned After Learning New Battery Costs More Than Value Of Car!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Forcing owners to buy new, planned obsolescence at its best?]
Carbon Schemes
Way Down In The Hole – Everything You Need To Know About CO2 And Carbon Capture
By Jason Lindquist, RBN Energy, Feb 9, 2022
California Dreaming
California’s Solar-Power Welfare State
The rich and famous object to a rollback of subsidies for home solar power.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Feb. 7, 2022
“Renewable subsidies were intended to be temporary. But as California shows, once the rich and powerful are hooked, the handouts are hard to take away.”
California regulators put controversial solar energy plan on hold as changes loom
By Dale Kasler, The Sacramento Bee, Feb 4, 2022
Other Scientific News
New lightweight material is stronger than steel
By Anne Trafton for MIT News, Boston MA (SPX), Feb 03, 2022
“The new material is a two-dimensional polymer that self-assembles into sheets, unlike all other polymers, which form one-dimensional, spaghetti-like chains.”
[SEPP Comment: Don’t tell the US National Academies, which are on an anti-plastic binge.]
The abyssal world: the last terra incognita of the Earth surface
By Staff Writers, Bremen, Germany (SPX), Feb 07, 2022
Link to paper: Patterns of eukaryotic diversity from the surface to the deep-ocean sediment
By Tristan Cordier, et al. AAAS Science Advances, Feb 4, 2022
Other News that May Be of Interest
VIDEO: Watch Starlink Satellites Fall from the Sky
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 9, 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
The World’s First Black-Smoke-Emitting Nuclear Power Plant! …Presented By Germany’s Flagship ZDF Public Television
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 8, 2022
From the comments section: ‘It should be Green – the EU has decreed Nukes and Gas to be renewable.
“Oops – that would look like Chlorine.”
Blizzard-like ‘bomb cyclones’ get boost from warming oceans
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 6, 2022
“’Climatologists say that while it’s unclear whether climate change is leading to more storms and hurricanes, it likely correlates with more intense storms.’ Barry Keim, a climatologist at the University of Louisiana who also serves as the state climatologist, said there is likely a similar dynamic with bomb cyclones.”
[SEPP Comment: Bunk! The term “bomb cyclone” was used long before climate change became a fad. It should correlate with intense storms.]
Climate change threatens Hadrian’s Wall treasures in England
By Paul Barker with Charles Onians, Once Brewed, United Kingdom (AFP) Feb 8, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Hadrian’s wall did not keep the barbarians out for long any more than government intervention in climate will keep Nature out.]
Kiribati To Drown In Eight Years
By Tony Heller, Feb 11, 2022
Terminating Sea Level Rise
By Tony Heller, Feb 11, 2022
UK Needs Climate Heroes!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 9, 2022
ARTICLES
1. Climate Scientists Encounter Limits of Computer Models, Bedeviling Policy
Supercomputer simulations are running up against the complex physics of programming thousands of weather variables such as the extensive impact of clouds
By Robert Lee Hotz, WSJ, Feb 6, 2022
TWTW Summary: In the “This Week” section above.
The “Greenhouse Effect” is a belief system. It has no grounding in science. It has no bearing on the Earth’s energy balance or Earth’s climate.
Trying to understand a belief is a challenging and pointless task. It is the same as understanding a religious faith. It has no physical meaning.
Earth’s energy balance is the result of two powerful temperature limiting processes that occur on and over oceans. Ocean water surface never gets below -1.8C because the water forms sea ice and that insulates the water below from rapid heat loss. The formation of persistent ice clouds from 7.000m and above over tropical oceans due to convective instability limit ocean surface temperature to 30C.
Clouds can never be modelled correctly by climate models because, if they were, they would show the ocean surface temperature is constrained to 30C and that eliminates the possibility of catastrophic global warming.
Earth’s surface has been in a warming phase since 1585. Since that time, the Southern Hemisphere has downward trending sunlight and the NH upward trending sunlight. The later is causing the NH land masses to warm up and the oceans warm in concert as the net evaporation slows down. The oceans are warmest in July/August when their solar input is lowest but land has its highest solar input. The net water cycle, transfer ocean to land, is at its minimum and the atmospheric water s at its maximum.
The atmospheric water reaches its minimum in December when the solar input to oceans is at its maximum but net evaporation is at its peak. The entire atmospheric water mass of 11,000Gt will be deposited over land in the single month of December and replenished as the sun provides the latent heat..
“They tested the equations, debugged them, and tested again.”
Then they decided to ignore the bugs
Water vapor is the big kahuna of greenhouse gases. Not only does it absorb energy over much wider wave link bands than CO2 and CH4, it overlaps the wave lengths that these gases absorb. Currently CO2 concentration is about 415 ppm and CH4 is about 2 ppm and they are said to be well mixed (uniform) throughout the atmosphere. Water vapor on the other hand varies substantially both vertically and horizontally from less than 1000 to 40,000 ppm and averages around 20,000 ppm in the troposphere. So in the lower layers of the atmosphere where the bulk of the greenhouse effect occurs there is ~50 times more water vapor than CO2 and ~1000 times more water vapor than CH4.
Just a 2% change in average water vapor concentration would have more impact on the greenhouse effect (GHE) than all CO2. A mere 0.1% change would more than match the CH4 GHE. Thus, uncertainty in the water GHE contribution to global temperature swamps the effects of other GHGs making it impossible to validate calculated effects by observation. And that’s without even considering the effects of clouds on attenuation of incoming solar radiation.
Due to the condensability of water and the huge range of atmospheric temperature both vertically and horizontally, there is simply no way to model the GHE of water vapor as it actually occurs. This means that the modelers must simply assume that whatever effect it has is uniform and constant with some dependence on the average global air temperature. There is, however, simply no way to validate this assumption. Hence, all model related projections regarding future climate and CO2 are implicitly or explicitly prefaced with “all else being equal”. But all else is not equal and thus the outputs of the models are useless for projection of future climate states.
You are correct that water vapour is by far the largest absorber of IR energy by far. In fact the water vapour absorption bands are also largely saturated so that changes in atmospheric moisture content has little further impact on temperature. This enables the impact of water to be determined with some precision. Please take a look at the link http://www.ijaos.org/article/298/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210502.12
Fear of the climate crisis was, and continues to be, built out of dreams of a one-world command economy. As long as the modeling and scientists continue to serve this other agenda do not expect honest outcomes.
GLSEA (The Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis) is a digital map of the Great Lakes surface water temperature and ice cover which is produced daily at GLERL. The lake surface temperatures are derived from NOAA polar-orbiting satellite imagery.