Open Thread

There have been some recent calls for more open threads. Here you go.

Debate away.

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February 13, 2022 6:05 pm

Realizing that surface emissivity is only ~0.91, surface emission only ~355W/m2 and the GHE only has a magnitude of about 115W/m2 would be a great start. At least if we want to get the “science” eventually right.

Reply to  E. Schaffer
February 13, 2022 8:52 pm

It is a good idea to question the assumed surface flux property. This boundary condition should be scrutinized because problems there would filter all the way up.

A value of 355 W m-2 implies an atmospheric window flux of over 60 W m-2 compared to the standard scheme of 40. I will explain below.

That is a difference of 20 watts per square meter that is lost directly to space compared to standard diagrams.

comment image

Standard atmosphere gives surface flux 398.2 and OLR 239.9
Standard greenhouse factor = surface flux / OLR = 1.66
Standard atmosphere emission = surface flux / 2 = 199.8 = 169.9 + 29.9
Standard atmospheric window = OLR – atmospheric emission = 40.1

Because the atmosphere does not absorb in the window region OLR must be the sum of flux from the atmosphere (including clouds) and flux in the window portion. Total atmospheric emission is approximated by surface flux / 2.

Schaffer atmosphere gives surface flux 355 and OLR 240
Schaffer greenhouse factor = 355 / 240 = 1.48
Schaffer atmosphere emission = surface flux / 2 = 355 / 2 = 177.5
Schaffer atmospheric window = OLR – 177.5 = 62.5

Atmospheric window difference = 62.5 – 40.1 = 22.4 W m-2

Standard models would require extra forcings at the surface to account for an extra 22.4 W m-2. With the Schaffer surface boundary condition estimation no such extra forcing is required.

In the case of CO2 at 20% greenhouse factor in standard radiation theory 22.4 W m-2 would account to approximately 4.5 W m-2 extra CO2 forcing.

When we change the surface boundary condition to 355 W m-2 according to the Schaffer estimate no such extra forcing is required. 4.5 W m-2 is conspicuously similar to the hypothetical forcing from extra non condensing greenhouse gases.

An extra 22.4 W m-2 is also conspicuously similar to the surface errors originally identified and then glazed over in the widely cited Trenberth 2009

The atmospheric window is my favorite bit but this post highlights the importance of scrutinizing the nature of surface flux.


Reply to  JCM
February 13, 2022 9:48 pm

Average surface temp of 288 C gives IR emission from ground upwards of 390 W. So how do you calculate 355 W? That would be 281 C average, kind of low average temp to escape attention.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
February 14, 2022 7:35 am

The surface is NOT a perfect black body. And 0.91 x 390 = 355

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  E. Schaffer
February 14, 2022 8:07 am

The K-T diagram ground/surface emissivity is 0.16 = 63 / 396.
396 or 390 is a theoretical calculation, i.e. it is NOT real!

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 5:29 am

Your graphic is arithmetic and thermodynamic trash.

K-T Budget solar & calcd.jpg
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 5:55 am

If I have understood correctly your value of radiation net flux from the surface 63 is similar to the 60 in my example above. In my view the nature of net flux density delivered from the surface to the atmospheric boundary layer is by nonradiation mechanisms such as turbulent diffusion. So in my view radiation emissivity isn’t the right conceptual framework to describe the nature of net surface flux. There I am in disagreement with both Schaffer and standard atmospheric diagrams. That is another matter. Surface radiation concepts such as emissivity may only have a discernible impact on atmospheric window flux density.

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 6:30 am

It’s not my value, it’s Trenberth’s.
Which 60/63? (57.9)
It’s on the graphic twice.
Two sets of books?
BTW 398.2 is a theoretical “What if?” calc for the denominator of the emissivity ratio.
It – is – NOT real!!!
Neither is the 340.3.

Reply to  Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 6:49 am

It could be that we are in agreement but it’s difficult to follow you. I would argue the atmosphere does not receive net radiation from the surface. Radiation equilibrium extends to the surface. While flux density is measured in W m-2 it does not imply what proportion is radiation in nature. Nonradiation flux is also quantified in W m-2. If you are suggesting the atmosphere cannot receive an additional net +63 LWIR from the surface then I am in agreement.

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 8:04 am

How difficult is third grade math?
The atmosphere cannot receive the same 63 twice.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 7:01 am

I have a problem with the whole diagram. These are averages and averages just don’t work when you have exponential functions involved. The sun’s insolation is not averaged over the earth, it varies according to a trig function that itself is modified by clouds/albedo/etc. Similarly, the earth’s ground/water temps vary by the insolation received at that point. That is why we have temperature zones.

If SB is going to be used then calculations will be based upon an exponential of the 4th power in addition to the trig functions. As a consequence averages just don’t work properly.

You would think Phd. climate scientists would have and should have developed a more sophisticated mathematical description of how the radiation balance actually works. I know it is enticing to use averaged temperatures but that is ignoring the real world.

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  Jim Gorman
February 14, 2022 1:35 pm

Furthermore, they divided the ISR by 4 to spread the discular area over the spherical ToA. Dumb!

Albedo & Heat & Cool 081921 lit face.jpg
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 7:42 am

Btw. I get the same result as Huang et al 2016 for the hemispheric emissivity of water. Note: the bulk of emissions @288K occur at <10µm wavelength.

comment image

Reply to  E. Schaffer
February 14, 2022 7:43 am

oops.. meant to say below WN 1000, or above 10µm respectively

Reply to  E. Schaffer
February 14, 2022 12:39 pm

Thanks for the link

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  E. Schaffer
February 14, 2022 1:40 pm

The kinetic +heat transfer processes of the contiguous atmospheric molecules render any emissivity approaching BB as not possible.
Even over water.

Back graphic.jpg
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 3:09 pm

Schaffer’s emissivity could be valid for local radiation exchange equilibrium between surface and atmosphere + IR window.

Then conceptually set net LW radiation exchange between surface and atmosphere to zero. This is a separate matter from total energy exchange between the surface and atmosphere where net surface to atmosphere is dominated by turbulent heat flux and eddy covariance K. You have illustrated that in your diagram.

All too often talented scientists burn bridges by their own arrogance but I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Last edited 7 months ago by JCM
Nick Schroeder
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 3:21 pm

From the linked paper: “The Earth’s surface emits like a blackbody with a temperature of about 290 K.” 

It does not!

Reply to  Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 3:23 pm

I knew you would go there in some attempt to deflect from the point. I’m afraid I can’t help you. Good luck to you.

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 3:27 pm

The emission and absorption characteristics of the atmosphere vary with the concentrations of green-house gases such as water vapour and carbon dioxide.

Even if this were a real thang at .04% there is not enough mass to matter.

Reply to  Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 3:40 pm

I’ll give you one more shot. Being in defensive mode will not win you allies. Regardless of assumed emissivity and the radiation characteristics of the atmosphere my view is that net LW radiation exchange sums to zero. Full stop. The slightest change to K will offset any radiation perturbation. That is my point. As soon as radiation is perturbed the temperature lapse rate becomes greater than the adiabatic lapse rate and the atmosphere becomes instable. This instability initiates an immediate feedback response denoted by K.

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 4:53 pm

How do I respond to esoteric handwavium?
The sun heats the surface, the surface heats the air.
The atmos obeys Q=U A dT.
Q and/U go up/down dT goes up/down and surface temperature goes up/down.
It’s not that complicated.

Wow! Thanks for the link. Most informative.

In an earlier post referencing SURFRAD I commented that dw_ir and uw_ir must be chained at the hip liked escaped convicts by some kind of algorithm.
HEY, there they are: section 5! These are what SURFRAD uses!
I’ve attached a slide with the nomenclature cross referenced.

dw_ir moves energy from the cooler upper atmosphere back towards the surface, an egregious violation of LoT 2.
Not that it matters.
uw_ir radiates energy from the surface. Emissivity is assumed to be 1.0. It’s not, it’s uw_solar/uw_ir.

uw_ir basically duplicates uw_solar

If I were to discard a duplicate calc it would be the imaginary ir ones not the real solar ones.

No uw_ir = no dw_ir.

Paper section 5.jpg
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 5:27 pm

It’s disappointing because we likely agree. Speaking of esotericism look to your most recent comment. Sprinkled with sarcasm it’s impossible to digest. Good luck to you.

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  JCM
February 14, 2022 8:06 pm

Let’s take a closer look at the LWIR equation.

Lu = ε σ T^4 + (1 – ε) Ld

If ε= 1 then Lu = σ T^4 = uw_i

Emissivity = the radiation leaving a system divided by the radiation that would leave were the system a BB at temperature.

ε = uw_s/uw_i

uwi = uw_s/uw_i * uw_i +(1 – uw_s/uw_i) dw_i

(uw_i – uw_s) = (uw_i – uw_s)/uw_i * dw_i

uw_i = dw_i

and since uw_i and dw_i are in opposite directions their sum is zero, i.e. consistent with LoT 1.

And the GHG “extra” energy loop goes kerbluey and the greenhouse effect goes straight in the dumpster along with 30 years of crap science based on it.

Reply to  JCM
February 15, 2022 9:44 am

Btw. you are taking this “energy budget” way too serious. Not just are the figures largely incorrect, the ideas it represents are just stupid. We can simplify the relevant parts.

Earth absorbs some 240W/m2 of solar radiation and emits about the same amount at various emission levels, strongly correlated to the respective emission temperatures. And that is about it.

What happens underneath these emission levels is largely irrelevant. There are no “radiative energy flows” or something like it. The effects of latent heat are best described by the magnitude of the lapse rate, not by a W/m2 figure.

Let me explain it with the example of surface-atmosphere “radiative exchange”, the core concept of the above budget diagram. The atmosphere absorbs about 85% of all radiation emitted by the surface. With updated surface emissivity that would be about 300W/m2 (355 x 0.85). About the same amount of radiation is emitted by the atmosphere onto the surface. Again, it is not 340W/m2 of “back radiation”, but only 300W/m2, or a bit less.

Anyhow, this is not an “energy flow”, but a lump sum game. And it happens everywhere. Every molecule emits radiation and absorps from neighboring molecules. We just do not care, as it is neither a (net) flow of energy, nor would it heat anything. Only “climate science” tries to make it matter..

Reply to  E. Schaffer
February 15, 2022 10:37 am

Btw. you are taking this “energy budget” way too serious.

What can I say? I’m a serious guy.

The atmosphere absorbs about 85% of all radiation emitted by the surface. With updated surface emissivity that would be about 300W/m2 (355 x 0.85). About the same amount of radiation is emitted by the atmosphere onto the surface.

Sounds like we all agree the surface net LW radiation is roughly zero. or about the same amount upwelling from the surface and downwelling from the atmosphere (regardless of their magnitude). We probably each conceptualize it differently.

The effects of latent heat are best described by the magnitude of the lapse rate, not by a W/m2 figure.

To each their own. Total convection K (latent and sensible heat flux or evaporation/condensation and wind currents at various heights) spreads out the lapse rate in the boundary layer to the observed value compared to one by radiation alone.

Surface temperature can respond to solar input, changing landuse/surface properties, or nonradiation forcing such as ocean upwelling variations. The lapse rate then proceeds as normal up from there.

The consequence of K is to optimize energy dissipation regardless of the IR radiation properties of the atmosphere. Ultimately the total lapse rate is bound by the atmospheric pressure profile and K is the mechanism that makes it so.

K is free to move energy where it needs to be to dissipate effectively. Without it hydrostatic equilibrium of our atmosphere wouldn’t be possible.

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  E. Schaffer
February 14, 2022 5:31 am

The Earth’s ground surface cannot radiate at 0.91.
The K-T diagram says it’s 0.16 = 63 / 396.

Heat exchanger equations..jpg
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 7:34 am

Just wrong.. 😉

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  E. Schaffer
February 14, 2022 8:02 am

I’ve got experimental backup.
Not only that, engineers designing and building heat exchangers are showing this process every day.
And you have?????

February 13, 2022 6:11 pm

Well, if anyone is wanting to talk about anything, how about this coming Sunspot Cycle. The Greybeard offers a look at some of the competing forecasts:

Still Looking at the Sunspot Cycle Data

Since the last solar cycle updateI posted a month ago, interesting data continues to come in. The questionsaren’t being resolved, but the best thing I can say about it is that these guys are practicing real science. They post their predictions and their data, essentially saying, “show me where I’m wrong” and try to improve theirmethods. It’s a sure sign there’s no money it, compared to climatescience or the Covid policy bosses. 

Reply to  OK S.
February 13, 2022 6:48 pm

About the solar cycle predictions and progression.
With the current ramping up of the cycle 25 and possible terminator event occurrence there is a lot of buzzing and claims that the cycle 25 is significantly stronger than the predictions of low cycle similar to 24. These claims are made by both amateur enthusiasts but surprisingly by prominent professionals as well.
they are accompanied by charts like this as the evidence.
comment image
This is not only wrong but just plain stupid. The predictions in these charts are just a general depiction of the C25 duration and the maximum peak reduced to a simple smooth hump like curve. It should be totally obvious the curve itself is not to be followed as an exact prediction as no cycle actually even looks like this.
If you want to see how the progression and the ramp up rate really stands you have to stack up the actual cycles against it, like this.
comment image
There you can see the C25 is clearly following C24 so far, even though that is no prove of where it is going to end up in it’s peak.

Last edited 7 months ago by Eben
Reply to  OK S.
February 14, 2022 5:34 am

OK, well, sunspots and their cycles do seem to have an effect on the weather patterns, so it’s probably a valid thing to do to speculate on that.

Are we going to have more rain/snow or less rain/snow? You might want to address that issue.

Reply to  OK S.
February 14, 2022 4:06 pm


In the post accessed by your link, we can see another link to a graph I down/uploaded to make it visible:

comment image

This SILSO-based SSN data fits pretty good to what we can obtain from Canada’s Space Weather agency, based on solar flux observations

what I reproduce here:

comment image

The point is not to demonstrate that SC25 would be stronger than SC24.

The point is the inverse, namely to contradict early claims that SC25 would keep below SC24 from the very beginning. What is simply wrong.

Reply to  Bindidon
February 16, 2022 4:18 pm

You can clearly see from the first chart Bindidong posted himself that a solar cycle can start off higher than another and yet finish significantly lower when done, like 23 against 22, This guy debunks his own claim right in his own post , that takes some doing.

February 13, 2022 7:52 pm

“There have been some recent calls for more open threads. Here you go.”

Resolved: Charles Rotter is the current incarnation of Buddha.

Richard (the cynical one)
Reply to  sycomputing
February 13, 2022 8:12 pm

a) the Buddha, may he resist in pieces, has stepped aside from the soul-rending tedium of rerererere(etc)reincarnation so as to gather his wits and dignity about him before “once more into the fray”, and so is currently not to be found.
b) Charles is such an utter Rotter, and is so perfectly suited to being himself, he has neither the time, the inclination, nor the lack of appetites necessary to unseat any of the other contenders.

Reply to  sycomputing
February 14, 2022 3:10 am

I was under the assumption that this was a mumbo-jumbo free space!

I challenge anyone to read Mdme Blavatsky’s ‘Secret Doctrine’ (1888) from cover to cover.

Reply to  fretslider
February 14, 2022 6:18 am

I challenge anyone to read Isaac Newton’s chest full of alchemical writings! Apparently Lord Maynard Keynes did, for the biography.

February 13, 2022 8:16 pm

Super Bowl LVI halftime show points way to resurgence of convertible cars to fight heat of current hot spell in LA. Admirers on stage demonstrate how to dress for heat and still enjoy physical activity. Even elder folks participated in movement displays.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  RMoore
February 14, 2022 2:52 am

That was the most boring Superbowl half-time show I’ve ever watched. About half the audience could not see what was happening on the stage because the stage was blocking their view. I guess they had to watch the show on the stadium monitors.

It looked to me like they had a 1962 Chevy covertible, and a 1963 Chevy covertible, and a 1964 Chevy convertible lined up in a row. I guess someone has a fetish for early Chevrolet covertibles.

My buddy from highschool days had a 1963 Chevy two-door hardtop with a 327 cu. in engine and automatic. White with black interior and bucket seats. A really nice car.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 3:48 am

The show was for TV just like the game.

Reply to  Derg
February 14, 2022 4:36 am

I didn’t understand a word of it.

S Browne
Reply to  BobM
February 14, 2022 7:24 am

I wonder if we are supposed to.

Reply to  BobM
February 14, 2022 7:24 am

…there were words?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  BobM
February 15, 2022 3:23 am

No, I didn’t understand a word they were saying, so naturally I had no idea what they were talking about.

I heard a lot of praise of the halftime show from some people. It seems it’s a Millenial generation thing, since they grew up on this type of music. People like me who grew up before hip-hop became popular are not really familiar with hip-hop, and so the whole halftime didn’t make much sense.

I would have preferred some classic rock with screaming guitars, but that’s just me. That’s the kind of music I grew up listening to.

Reply to  BobM
February 16, 2022 10:31 am

Watch any commercials nowdays? Half the time, you can’t figure out what they’re pedaling, which should be the purpose of the commercial..

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 7:26 am

I’ve lost interest in the Super Bowl lately, and the commercials are nowhere near as good as they used to be.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  TonyG
February 15, 2022 3:27 am

Yes, some of the commercials were not very explanatory. Some were good and some were a big waste of money.

Those commercial writers ought to hire me as their consultant. I could make their commercials so much better. 🙂

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 10:37 am

That was the most boring Superbowl half-time show I’ve ever watched.

Maybe that helps explain the vandalism that occurred after the game was over.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
February 15, 2022 3:29 am

Failure by the Democrats to lock up the criminals and keep them locked up is the cause of the vandalism and crime.

Ireneusz Palmowski
February 13, 2022 11:11 pm

It will get “chilly” in California tomorrow night.comment image

Last edited 7 months ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
February 13, 2022 11:29 pm

Los Angeles, California was 84.2* Fahrenheit (F) before noon on Sunday February 13. The preceding days Saturday Feb. 12 it was 87.9*F, Friday Feb. 11 it was 80.6*F, Thursday Feb. 10 it was 82.4*F, Weds. Feb. 9th it was 84.2*F and so on. Northern hemisphere winter is still the season; just not typically short pants and tee-shirt weather.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  gringojay
February 14, 2022 3:02 am

The reason for the high temperatures in California is there is a high-pressure system hovering over the area. The center of the high is marked:,30.72,403/loc=-119.395,33.810

John Bell
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 5:31 am

3 deg F here near Detroit now, supposed to be 50 on Wednesday, that will be a nice change.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 5:55 am

Yes during pauses of play in the broadcast there were helicopter camera shots of the Hollywood sign from the front and looking back over the sign to downtown LA. You could see everything clear as a bell due to the high pressure no humidity air.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 8:08 am
Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
February 14, 2022 8:03 am

In three days, Arctic air will return to the Rocky Mountains.comment image

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
February 14, 2022 10:39 am

Thank you for taking advantage of the Open Thread instead of your usual random off-topic insertions.

Jeffrey C. Briggs
February 13, 2022 11:25 pm

Just have to get this off my chest here: The climate alarmists in California are the same evil hypocrite elites walking around SoFi Stadium today without masks while still requiring them of school kids—including even the kids performing at the Super Bowl. If Californians do not throw them all out of office, and demand immediate cessation of all mask rules and return to fossil fuel development and abandon carbon free goals, well, they deserve all the tyranny they get. When will the scales fall from their eyes?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Jeffrey C. Briggs
February 14, 2022 3:05 am

The Superbowl was a good example of hypocricy. None of the elites deigned to wear masks. But they expect everyone else to comply with the mask mandate. That’s why people are starting to protest.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 7:18 am

Bingo. Masks for thee but not for me.

Jeffrey C. Briggs
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 8:11 am

The NFL and the stadium officials made a big show last week of how they were going to enforce the local LA County mask rules requiring masks except while actively eating or drinking at big events. Predictably, all that was for show. In all the many crowd shots during the game, I saw maybe three masks—forget celebrities, NOBODY was masked. And there was no evident enforcement effort. As there is no evidence that similar events have been “super spreaders,” the unelected local “science” officials to whom all the people elected here have deferred in order to avoid making any decision themselves should simply give up and end the useless mask mandates, especially for kids, but instead they likely will double down and extend the mandates as punishment for what happened Sunday. Nobody needs to send us to a gulag, we already live in one!

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Jeffrey C. Briggs
February 15, 2022 3:37 am

“forget celebrities, NOBODY was masked”

Exactly right. Mask mandates have become a sham and a scam.

M Courtney
February 14, 2022 12:18 am

This will get filled with Anti-Vaxxers and other neo-chemtrail nonsense.

Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 1:01 am

Us anti vaxxers prefer the term pure blood. Funny how I’m an anti jabber ( they are not vaccines) who still had MMR, Hep B etc.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
February 14, 2022 9:40 am

so did the Nazis.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
February 14, 2022 9:48 am

Congrats Izaak.
You win the Godwin’s Law trophy for this thread.

Climate believer
Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 1:31 am

Can everybody get in line please, M Courtney is going to paint us all with his “deplorables” brush.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 3:10 am

So you are voting against having an open thread?

You know, if someone says something outrageous, it can always be corrected in an open thread.

Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 4:08 am

No, even Open Thread is still moderated the main difference from regular topical posts is that you will not be off topic here.

Policy rules are still in effect here, however.

Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 5:05 am

Well I guess that makes you a Holocaust denier 😉

Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 5:08 am

Since 1802 there have been problems

Reply to  bonbon
February 14, 2022 11:24 am

I saw one of the last smallpox epidemics in India when I was 16. The Vaccinator suddenly got active after about 10 years of avoiding the villages. In a tiny back room in a mud hut I saw an 11 y/o girl lying unconcious on a string bed, her body completely covered with weeping scabs. Her grandmother had said “Keep her back when the vaccinator comes so she can look after her 2 younger brothers if they are sick after the vaccine”.

In the villages, people brought their children out when the vaccinator arrived because they had personal experience of the alternative. I never heard of anyone against the smallpox vaccine because the results were obvious, with pock-marked people throughout the population as enduring witnesses.

Steve Kirsch’s recent substack on the problems with the early vaccine in the 19th century show that mandating a medical treatment of any sort always leads to opposition, some of it straight out paranoia.

My refusal to get the currently mandated shot is because it a completely new technology brought out without an ACTIVE monitoring system. I have personally been involved in human pharmacological experimentation (all basic science related), and I know what the rules for experiments on human subjects.

Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 5:41 am

Oh, hogwash, Courtney. I’m going to the Renaissance Faire this summer wearing a bird beak mask and yelling “Bring out yer dead!”.

This morning, the head of the Infectious Diseases at a local/well-known university said flatly that if you catch the omicron bug, it will give you 300 days of immunity from the rest of the covid bugs.

Stock up on tissues and chicken broth and learn to make a bodacious pot of chicken soup. You seem to need it.

Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 6:32 am

Charles, can posts like these just be deleted? They are trolling baits, nothing more.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 6:58 am
Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 7:00 am

Some data for doomsters rolling in-
Study: COVID recovery gave Israelis longer-lasting Delta defense than vaccines | The Times of Israel
Fourth COVID vaccine still doesn’t stop Omicron: Israeli study (

What’s the latest stats on Spanish Flu deaths vis a vis common or garden flu deaths and have they managed to parse them out of the global warming death figures yet? Ironically I see Norway the EV capital of the world has completely given up worrying about Corona. I suppose they must figure they’re all goners with the weather dooming anyway. So much settled science everywhere.

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 7:05 am

We live in a Vaccination Nation (US) where no prophylactics are allowed. Lucky us!

Did You Know 2021 - M.jpg
Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 7:29 am

Don’t you mean “vaccine deniers”, since you’re using it in the same manner?

Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 8:15 am

@M Courtney – point to a single time anywhere in WUWT content history when anything resembling a majority of commenters gave any credence to wacko chemtrail conspiracy. If you can’t stand and deliver on that simple challenge, well, mark yourself as another drive-by troll who’s all show and no go.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Russell Cook
February 14, 2022 10:50 am

all show and no go.

That dates you. We used that expression when I was in high school to describe a car with a stock engine that just came back from Tijuana with a new Candy Apple Red paint job and tuck-and-roll upholstery. He spent all his money on the external appearance.

Reply to  Clyde Spencer
February 14, 2022 5:14 pm

Eeek. Busted, put the cuffs on me, guilty as charged!

Reply to  M Courtney
February 14, 2022 11:09 am

I have been puzzled by WUWT staying away from the whole Covid story because it is becoming clear that the restrictions are part of an ambition to bring in similar control of people’s daily lives in the service of the “climate emergency”.

AND, forced administration of an experimental drug is just the beginning of forcing a lot more.

February 14, 2022 1:46 am

Having taken CO2 readings in the UK in various locations, including on an island, and had others take readings in Australia and France, the CO2 readings are between typically 500 and 600ppm outdoors. (none in a particularly urban/industrial environment)

Looking at the highly convoluted means -including the drying of the air sample- by which a CO2 reading is determined with the official readings, my simple question is why do they do this?

I can look at my thermometer and get a pretty accurate idea of the temperature but a CO2 device (not state of the art) delivers a reading that is nothing like the official readings.

Why do they subject the air sample to such adjustments? Is that an accurate way of doing this? Are the actual informal CO2 readings from devices such as mine (which are of course spot ones) more accurate as to the real levels of CO2 present in the environment?


Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  tonyb
February 14, 2022 3:06 am

Where do you get a CO2 reading device? I might like to get one. Yes, of course, I can google it- but just asking. I’d like to see what it measures in a forest vs. in a solar “farm”.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 14, 2022 4:37 am

I was worried about CO from a wood stove, got a new meter on eBay, and it gave such erratic readings I decided it must be broken. Began to look into the electronics, sensor stuff, but after the experience with optical smoke detectors after they banned Am241 sensors, I do not trust them.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 14, 2022 8:00 am

The one I have is called the jsm-131 air quality detector. i just googled it and it came up on the search. They are not hugely robust but then again they are not hugely expensive. It seems to be very accurate in measuring traffic pollution so I can only hope the co2 reading plus or minus 10% is also in the ball park


February 14, 2022 1:50 am

Since the gates of Kiev have been opened, have a look at
NASA planetary data from across the Solar System help resolve long-standing paleoclimatic enigmas

This not the rules-based-order of radiative climate paradigm, rather its polar opposite.
Looks like the widely accepted Milankovitch hypothesis might have to be put to rest.

Major discussion at

Let’s keep this diplomatic, shall we?

Reply to  bonbon
February 14, 2022 8:17 am

We are in an icehouse global climate.
Any theory which says our global average temperature is 15 C is wrong.
What determines our global climate is our cold ocean.
Any theory that doesn’t explain why the average temperature of ocean is 3.5 C is
not about our global climate.
Our global average surface temperature is the result of our cold ocean, there is huge
difference if ocean were to be 3 C rather than 3.5 C, as there huge difference if average
temperature was 4 C.
And if ocean were 4 C, it is still a cold ocean. A 5 C ocean is still a cold ocean, or we still in an icehouse climate. We have not had 5 C ocean within last 2 million years.
The last 2 million year has coldest period in our 34 million year Ice Age. Earlier in the Late Cenozoic Ice Age.
Wiki says:
It is well established that there is strong correlation between low CO2 levels and an icehouse state. However, that does not mean that decreasing atmospheric levels CO2 is a primary driver of a transition to the icehouse state.”
I would say that obviously a cold ocean is the reason we have low CO2 levels. And a warmer
ocean would result in higher global CO2 level. But .5 C increase in average ocean temperature will not have much effect in regards of CO2 levels. Warmer being 1 or 2 C warmer, which is still a cold ocean.
We not going to have ocean which 4 C within a century or two, and more likely our ocean will cool again before it could reach 4 C. Or distant future is glaciation period.
And last 5000 years our ocean has been “about” 3.5 C with variation of couple tenths of degree at most. Or our recovery from our Little Ice Age was about .1 C increase in average ocean temperature.
One could say increase .3 C within 100 years would be “alarming”, but it doesn’t seem possible or likely. If that happenned I would concede that humans are definitely having effect- it’s a crazy amount of warming over such a short time period. And could match or exceed present future global climate “projections”. And would delay our returning to glaciation period
by at least 10,000 years.

Reply to  gbaikie
February 14, 2022 9:10 am

How could humans relatively easily affect global temperature. How could human stop us from going into glaciation period, and could alter our global surface air temperature by a lot- could make global air really cold or slightly cooler.
The more colder we make global air, the faster we would increasing the ocean’s temperature {to avoid a glaciation period, faster}.
I don’t think anyone want average global air of 13 C or colder, but we might want 14 C, in order to increase the ocean temperature quicker. But warm the ocean without having any significant amount cooling of global air.
So, what do, is pump warm tropical surface water to a deep ocean depth. It would require much energy to do this. But one use wave energy to do it- or require no electrical power to force the lower density warmer water to the lower depths.
But if didn’t use “free” wave energy, amount energy should around amount of energy
pump water up against gravity water about 10 meter high {or less}.
But effecting ocean temperature with time period of 100 years, requires a lot water moved in such a “short time period”. So making the infrastructure to last a long time,
and requiring much maintenance, and using wave energy seems the cheapest, unless you to change ocean temperature, quickly. One use titanium as sea water does not corrode it.

Reply to  gbaikie
February 18, 2022 6:29 am

Have a look here, slide 27 from Dr. Nikolov’s presentation :

No glaciation at Eocene anywhere, higher pressure.

Reply to  bonbon
February 18, 2022 5:44 pm

–The Eocene Epoch is a geological epoch that lasted from about 56 to 33.9 million years ago (mya). It is the second epoch of the Paleogene Period in the modern Cenozoic Era.–

And we are in Late Cenozoic Ice Age which followed this epoch. Or our icehouse global climate started 33.9 million years ago.
Or icehouse global climate has cold ocean, say ocean which is about 8 C would count as a cold ocean. Our present average ocean temperature is about 3.5 C, and it not been as warm as 5 C in last couple million years.
And over Earth long history, the ocean has warmer than 15 C, some claim as warm as 25 C. Anyhow a 10 C ocean could be what is called a greenhouse global climate, and not going to have ice sheets near sea level- though inland and high elevation could large amount of glacial ice. Or we currently have glaciers in our tropics, at higher elevations.

Peta of Newark
February 14, 2022 2:18 am

I’ve been learning about the science & medicine of Alzheimer’s Dementia (AD) recently – the parallels with Climate Science are depressing…

Alzheimer’s is now pretty well on epidemic proportion. It kills 12.5% of all UK folks presently and will be 25% inside as many years. Figures for the US are even worse, it presently takes down one person in six (16.6%)
Not just old folks are getting dementia – at present rate of growth, every child in the US will be born Autistic by the year 2050

So you ask, where’s the vaccine – where is the Never Better Medicine?

Contemporary medicine is nowhere on AD – despite it having first been identified by its eponymous doctor over a century ago.

Reason: Money money money and money.
Everybody knows that AD is ’caused’ by (amyloid) protein plaques (PP) that build up inside the affected person’s brain. Everybody knows this and they picture this ‘stuff’ choking the poor person’s brain to death. It cannot make new connections, old ones get broken, it is starved of Oxygen and other nutrient.
Simple, even a child could work it out. (you do see where I’m going by now?)

But there are problems, esp:

  • The PPs are proven to be anti-microbial
  • Folks with AD live to be 85 years old compared to non-AD folks who only get to be 78
  • Autopsies show brains choked full of PPs yet the person completely had no signs of AD while alive
  • The PPs are proven to be effective at removing divalent (heavy) metals from the brain – most notably Mercury

You get the idea and now see the parallel to Climate Science.
In the same way that CO2 and Rising Temperatures are perfectly co-incidental, so are the PPs with AD.
Where are the ‘Einstein & Feynman Sciences’ here – where “It takes only one to disprove the theory”
There are some very compelling arguements that PPs don’t ’cause’ AD in the same way as there are plenty examples where CO2 doesn’t ’cause’ climate change.

(Did you get there yet, here’s the punchline / paragraph)

There are myriad ways of catching, treating and reversing AD (if it’s seen early) just as there are myriad ways of ‘treating’ the observed climate change. Again, if its seen early and before a new desert is created or an existing one made larger.
If you like, AD is where a person’s brain, memory, personality and just everything has become ‘a desert’ – that is also the end-game of Real Climate Change

For climate and in an absolute nutshell, you Go Organic
You do not use ploughs, nitrogen fertiliser, chemicals and you never never ever let bare soil be exposed to the sun

For AD, you also go organic.
No ‘processed food’ and primarily because processed food is in its entirety = cooked starch
No equivalent to nitrogen fert = refined sugar and most hideous of all, Corn Syrup
No ‘chemicals’ – esp the same chemicals as applied to plants and their pests (esp Roundup)
No poisons = do your absolute damnedest to keep clear of shit like Mercury, also Aluminium
Boost your immune system = plenty Vitamins B, C and D also esp Zinc & Selenium

Spell it out, the protein plaques inside the sufferers of AD are there to try and protect the victim

Holy <expletive> Kow you exclaim, is that what the extra Carbon Dioxide is doing – trying to protect (the organism = haha = Gaia) and repair damage?

But what have we got in both the cases of Climate Change and Alzheimer’s Dementia?
i.e. War is being waged on the very thing that’s trying to do the protecting and to repair damage

Medical Science is busting its proverbial gut to find A Pill, A Vaccine, An Injection to get rid of the PPs inside the brain of an AD patient – just as Climate Science is busting its guts trying to get rid of CO2

The why is very simple. Vast amounts of money are to be made in both cases.

Where as the simple remedies don’t cost hardly anything and most particularly, are Natural Remedies and Substances (vitamins) that can not be patented
Something Has Got To Change around here or we all are in some very big trouble

haha “Think of the kids” the alarmists say
Doncha feel sick to the stomach that the money-grubbing path they are taking us down will see every kid born being Autistic inside 30 years and well over 50% of the adults being demented.
If you are even just ‘a bit overweight‘ or ‘pre-diabetic‘, you are well on your way there……

Reply to  Peta of Newark
February 14, 2022 3:00 am

Sulforaphane in broccoli may help against these brain deaseases you mention, but not against the CC meme…

Last edited 7 months ago by Krishna Gans
Reply to  Peta of Newark
February 14, 2022 3:41 am

Check Luc Montagnier – Nobel for HIV virus.
He has strong evidence that Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s disease, multiple sclerosis, chronic Lyme syndrome, rheumatoid arthritis, various neuropathies, and autism are actually from infections. Got into huge trouble, had to leave France for China to continue research. R.I.P a few days ago.
Big Pharma has a huge problem with electromagnetic diagnosis and treatment – it would bankrupt them.

February 14, 2022 2:22 am

Farming the air
By David Wojick
The beginning: “You are built almost entirely out of carbon dioxide and water. So is all the food you eat. Likewise for all the energy you use moving about and staying alive. Carbon dioxide and water! In short the carbon dioxide in the air is the global food supply. This is why all life on Earth is said to be “carbon based”.

The climate alarmists play a tricky word game here. They call carbon dioxide “pollution” and wind and solar power “clean.” Our food supply is not pollution. Nor is emitting carbon dioxide (which we all do when we exhale) unclean. This is just false advertising. Watching a child grow is watching processed carbon dioxide be reprocessed.

Here is how it works. Plants collect carbon dioxide from the air then use sunlight and water to create the stuff they consume to build their bodies and to live on. They also use tiny amounts of vitamins and minerals, just as we do. Fertilizer is like vitamins, not like food. So almost all of what they use is carbon dioxide and water. Animals eat the plants for food, basically reprocessing the carbon dioxide and water. Then we eat both plants and animals.

There is a saying that you cannot live on air but in fact that is just what we do. All of our food begins as airborne (or waterborne) carbon dioxide. Our farmers are literally farming the air!

Go into a grocery store and look around. All the food you see — vegetables, fruit and meat — fresh, frozen or canned — is processed carbon dioxide. So are the people shopping there. So are you.”

More in the article. Please share it.

Robert B
February 14, 2022 2:44 am

Extraordinary claims attract extraordinary attention, and this means such claims require reanalysis — and possibly refutation or corroboration. In scientific research, the data must fit the hypothesis, and if it does not, then the hypothesis is rejected.

The Conversation. About a, possibly, snake with legs in the fossil record.

It might become more widespread, though.

michael hart
February 14, 2022 2:59 am

The BBC has recently added “Climate” as a menu item in its own right on their News page

This is in addition to their “Science & Environment” page, which is better described as “Environment & Environment” page.

It has long irritated me that they, and others, try to take the widely-believed authority of Science to add to the frequent lack of intellectual rigour of Environmentalism. There is just as much case for having a “Science & Business” or a “Science & Sport” page.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  michael hart
February 14, 2022 5:16 am

same with the Bah-stin Globe- with a climate menu item- and under it- it says the paper will NOT be open to discussing climate skepticism as “the science is settled”- how absurd in a city which considers itself so ultra sophisticated as to shut off discussion on this important topic

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 15, 2022 3:55 am

““the science is settled””

The Boston Globe demonstrates their ignorance and arrogance.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 15, 2022 3:59 am

I notice whenever there is a climate article in the Globe- then I read the comments- about 97% are even more fanatic than the article- the few who show a very modest skepticism then get slammed- any who show real skepticism get deleted- I notice that a significant percent of the comments are in fact deleted with no reason mentioned- those were almost certainly serious skeptics- as the paper says, there will be no discussion of the science.

Joseph Zorzin
February 14, 2022 3:22 am

at Yale Climate Connections

“Update: Supreme Court to weigh EPA authority on greenhouse pollutants”

“The Supreme Court in late February is to hear West Virginia v. EPA, a case challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gasses as pollutants. This site in November explored best- and worst-case scenario outcomes from the perspective of climate action advocates based on arguments in initial briefs filed by parties to the case.”

Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 3:28 am

I see where Special Counsel John Durham has now linked Hillary Clinton to spying on Trump during his campaign for president and even after Trump was elected.

Hillary made up the “Russia Collusion” lie, paid people to perpetrate it, including leftwing media types, and conspired with the Obama-Biden administration to use the power of the federal government in the form of the FBI, CIA, other Intelligence agencies and the “Justice” Department to attack and try to destroy their political opponents.

And these crimes are ongoing in the Biden administration.

The Democrats are led by a cabal of Traitors to their Country. Personal political power is more important to them than laws or morals.

But now the truth is starting to come out.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 3:36 am

I presume you saw Trump’s comment on this?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  bonbon
February 14, 2022 4:21 am

Yes, I did. I expect Trump will have a lot more to say about it in the future.

I wonder what Hillary is going to say about it? Some lie or another, no doubt.

The next question is does Hillary face indictment?

The leftwing media is ignoring this story, as per usual. I can see why, especially in this case, because the leftwing media are complicit in spreading the Trump/Russia collusion lie. They knew it was a lie when they reported it.

Last edited 7 months ago by Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 4:47 am

They simply gear-shifted to China, without missing a ratchet.
And just recently down-shifted again – Russia is to invade Ukraine on Wednesday 16.02.2022.
Likely means Kiev will attack Donbass on Wednesday.
Major war is then the best cover for Hilary and the midterms.
Problem is, Europe is then toast, as Macron and Scholz have sniffed out.

Reply to  bonbon
February 14, 2022 5:08 am

I am still trying to figure out the game the Obama administration was playing in Ukraine.

Last edited 7 months ago by Derg
Reply to  Derg
February 14, 2022 5:37 am

Biden was point man for Obama’s Nuland Maidan coup in Kiev, costing $5 billion. The game is to start a war with Russia, Ukraine is slowly finding out they are Afghanistan 2. Their economy is a total ruin already.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 10:57 am

Some lie or another, no doubt.

“I don’t remember. All the information was on the hard-drive of my server that got ‘bleached’ somehow.”

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 5:11 am

Fox News is reporting that 66 percent of *Democrats* want Hillary investigated over these allegations she spied on Trump’s campaign and presidency.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 7:01 am

Oh, that is priceless, Tom Abbott!

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 12:40 pm

here is my take on the durham investigation. durham does not like trump but hates hillary more. durham knows hillary must never be in control of anything attached to government. durham also knows how the media spin doctors could and would make hillary go from criminal to victim. if durham would have fired all of his guns a year or so ago, the spin doctors would have years to change the minds of half the country. durham dribbles out his investigation to keep a steady flow to the public that hillary is, was and always will be bad for the country. durham is running out the clock.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 10:30 am

“But now the truth is starting to come out.”

I keep seeing people going on about how “that sort of surveillance is normal in a criminal investigation”. I don’t see anything coming of this.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  TonyG
February 15, 2022 4:04 am

News reports are saying a lot of Clinton’s people are starting to talk. No doubt, trying to make a deal with the prosecutors.

The leftwing media is not covering this at all. This is typcial for propaganda organs. They selectively report the news to benefit their political ambitions.

Ten percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020, said they would not have voted for Biden had they known about the scandals involving Biden and his son, Hunter. That would have given the election to Trump. But, of course, the leftwing media didn’t tell anyone about the corruption of the Bidens before the election.

And Biden is hip-deep in this Clinton scandal. Just watch and see.

Tom Abbott
February 14, 2022 3:29 am

I see where Biden lost his bid to increase the cost of carbon dioxide. A federal judge shot down Biden’s attempt to raise the price. The judge was appointed by Trump. 🙂

David Dibbell
February 14, 2022 4:20 am

Visualization is a powerful way to learn. I would like to encourage WUWT readers to view the high-resolution NASA GOES-East and GOES-West animations from the imagers on the geostationary satellites. You can select from the 16 wavelength bands and choose how many images to put in motion. Pasted below is a link to the default animation for Band 16 (the “CO2” band centered at 13.3 microns) for the full-disk view from GOES-East.

Consider the implications of the constant motion and the altitudes achieved in the circulation at local, regional, and planetary scales. First, the planet is readily visualized from space as a huge array of highly variable emitter/reflector elements. A further implication, as I see it, is that heat energy cannot, in fact, be accumulated to harmful effect at the surface by what non-condensing GHGs do.


David Dibbell
Reply to  David Dibbell
February 14, 2022 9:19 am

I should clarify that the data for the imagery is from the NASA satellites; the images and animations are provided by NOAA.

Tom in Florida
February 14, 2022 4:29 am

Can anything be off topic on an open thread? If so this is it. I am just asking, is Griff really CTM just having some fun with us all?

Reply to  Tom in Florida
February 14, 2022 4:50 am

OT (off topic) = OT (open thread) 😀

Reply to  Krishna Gans
February 14, 2022 5:15 am

OTAN = NATO . See :
Top French, German BIS bankers call for OTANexit immediately. Have Scholz and Macron gotten the memo?

Reply to  Tom in Florida
February 14, 2022 5:13 am

No. griff is taller than ctm.

I have posited before here on WUWT that griff is 6’9″ tall. Unfortunately, the joists in griff’s mom’s basement are 6’5″ above the floor.

So, every time griff makes a trip to the loo or to get a soda or some crisps, it’s *Clunk* “ow!” *Clunk* “ow!” *Clunk* “ow!” *Clunk* “ow!” all the way across the basement and back to the computer.

Knocked half-silly, griff then proceeds to post.

Does anyone have a better explanation for griff’s posts?

Reply to  Tom in Florida
February 14, 2022 5:42 am

Griff simply reminds everyone what MSM is spouting in all megaphones – the Mighty Wurlitzer.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
February 14, 2022 6:55 am

Not only is The Grifter the alter-ego of the grand high mystic ruler, and Moderator, Charles Rotten. The Grifter was invented to generate more page views. Mr. Rotten, few people realize, was formerly the lead singer of the punk band The Sex Pistols, when he was known as Johnny Rotten.

The Grifter comments are cleverly written in the spirit of the Johnny Carson character Floyd R. Turbo, and are great fun for Mr. Rotten.

Why else would someone take a job as Moderator, where the official website “office” is a bar stool, in a seedy bar, down by the docks? Answer: Being Moderator is an opportunity for creative writing, Babylon Bee style, as The Grifter. Not only does Mr. Rotten write the Grifter comments, but he also places bets on how many thumbs down each one will generate.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Richard Greene
February 14, 2022 10:09 am

Wow, that would explain why he’s in Denmark so much.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 15, 2022 4:12 am

Who was in Denmark? Griff or the Moderator? Or both?

Last edited 7 months ago by Tom Abbott
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Greene
February 15, 2022 4:13 am

“Floyd R. Turbo”

There’s a name I haven’t heard in a while. The Johnny Carson Show was excellent.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
February 14, 2022 4:40 pm

If Griff is primarily played by CTM, then Sunset Tommy is only a stand in for the part?

Peta of Newark
February 14, 2022 5:17 am

The BBC. what are they like…

Earlier this morning on the BBC News front page was an article telling us how BoJo was going to use the excuse that his alcohol-fuelled lockdown parties were for ‘Business Purposes’
The article has disappeared now and to describe the BBC’s own search feature as surreal and bizarre in a truly epic understatement.

IOW: Boris has admitted that UK Government Policy is now formulated by alcoholics while they are actually inebriated.

He might also claim, I’m sure he has, that the parties were for ‘Team Building‘ and for strengthening interpersonal ties – that they were good for the mental health of the attendees.

The first point is beyond mind-blowing all on its own but that, while at these ‘team building and mental health‘ parties, it was decided that the whole rest of the country should be denied these things.

The guy should hang. period.

But he won’t will he?
Because they only hangmen available (Yes Metropolitan Police, I am looking at you) will be just as guilty of all the same sort of crimes as he is and they damn well know it

Climate Change is not the real problem we have here…..

Last edited 7 months ago by Peta of Newark
Mark D
Reply to  Peta of Newark
February 14, 2022 6:39 am

Alcohol kills covid! Who knew?

Reply to  Mark D
February 14, 2022 8:38 am

I experimented on myself. Unfortunately after many many determined efforts using red wine and Guinness I can’t remember my results.

Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 5:26 am

uw_ir assumes the ground beneath radiates as a black body.
As explained in theory and demonstrated by experiment such is not possible.
Wihtou out uw_ir there is no dw_ir, no GHG energy loop and no greenhouse effect.

SURFRAD consists of seven instrumentation sites collecting and recording CONUS terrestrial radiation data.

dw_solar is the downwelling solar radiation between 200 and 3,000 nm. This is akin to the 160 W/m^2 net/net to the ground on a K-T diagram.
uw_solar is the upwelling solar radiation between 200 and 3,000 nm and is akin to the 63 W/m^2 of the K-T diagram.
The difference between these two is akin to the upwelling kinetic sensible and latent energies on the K-T diagram. Some suggest that this lowered energy/cooling difference is the magical “back” radiation of the greenhouse gas loop. (It’s not.)

 uw_ir “measures” the IR between 3,000 and 50,000 nm upwelling from the ground and is akin to the 396 of the K-T diagram, displaying more energy than arrived from the sun in the first place. This number is actually a theoretical, “What if?” calculation that fills the denominator of the emissivity ratio: energy leaving a system by radiation over the energy leaving by radiation were the system an ideal BB at its temperature. In the K-T that would be 63/396=0.16. For SURFRAD that would be uw_solar/uw_ir. And since uw_ir is the BB of the ground temperature that number can be back calculated w/ the S-B equation. Did that elsewhere. If the correct emissivity is applied to uw_ir the dw_ir goes to zero.
Summary: uw_solar and uw_ir * correct emissivity are one and the same energy (2 + 2 = 2) and dw_ir goes to zero.

So, what about dw_ir, 3,000 to 50,000 LWIR downwelling from the sky? Is that even possible to measure? Shouldn’t it be the missing difference of the dw – uw solar above? Should it be uw_ir – uw_solar like on the K-T?
I just could not make sense of the origin of dw_ir so I compared the ratio of the dw_ir to the uw_ir and plotted against the uw_ir to see what I might see. I expected to see evidence that dw_ir was independent from uw_ir especially at night and during storms, cloudy weather, etc.
It seems to me that dw_ir is not an independent measurement but is some kind of algorithm driven mathematical/fixed percentage of uw_ir and the dw_ir instrument and data are “calibrated” to conform.
There is an easy way to check this. Disconnect uw_ir and observe dw_ir. Whether dw_ir  changes or not  will be a problem either way.

As others often request, respond to the contents of the post.

Surfrad down up ratio.jpg
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 5:40 am

Time to jump paradigm from radiative to adiabatic – see my post above.
Looks like the Milankovitch hypothesis must be put to rest.

February 14, 2022 5:28 am

We are having a rather DRY winter in my AO. Cold, yes, and slightly above average humidity, but snow? Not as much as we should get.
Should I wish for more and possibly get a blizzard, or just enjoy the fact that the geese are already coming back (as always) and looking for nesting spots?

Bruce Cobb
February 14, 2022 5:42 am

Needless to say, open threads are not for closed minds.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 15, 2022 4:19 am

Not for control-freaks.

February 14, 2022 5:52 am

74 UK customers got checks for £2.3 TRILLION from Northern Powergrid because of Storm Arwen.
Now Marc Carney of UN Climate Finance must be wondering where his $100 TRILLION actually went!

Tom Abbott
Reply to  bonbon
February 15, 2022 4:21 am

“74 UK customers got checks for £2.3 TRILLION from Northern Powergrid because of Storm Arwen.”

I’m moving to the UK to get my 2.3 Trillion! Can I sign up with just any electricity provider, or does it have to be Northern Powergrid specifically?

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 18, 2022 6:15 am

Couple of new hurricanes on the way right now – check the impacted zones, and collect!

Bruce Cobb
February 14, 2022 5:54 am

This just in under the Strange But True category; Mike Pence is now being pressured to declare the Bengals the actual winners of the Super Bowl, as the game was stolen. More to follow.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 14, 2022 12:45 pm

Of course, some people just can’t handle the truth.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 15, 2022 4:27 am

And some people ignore the truth.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 15, 2022 4:26 am

I was pulling for the Bengals to win, but the Bengals actually got away with a blantant foul on one play that could have determined the game. The Bengals pass reciever grabbed the facemask of the L.A. defender and threw him off balance which enabled the Bengals pass reciever to catch the ball on an important play. No foul was called, so the Bengals got away with one.

I like the Bengals because the coach is from Oklahoma and two of the Bengals running backs are former Oklahoma University players.

February 14, 2022 6:04 am

Since this is an Open Thread

Lee Smolin: String Theory Is Still Wrong

From an expert in Quantum Mechanics, Gravity, Cosmology, String Theory.

February 14, 2022 6:29 am

It was 10 degrees Celsius here this morning with sun and blue skies. It is warmer than usual for this time of year. I love climate change. I think it could get a little warmer in the future, at least not colder.

Reply to  marty
February 14, 2022 7:28 am

It was -15 C for me. I could really use global warming today.

Mark D
Reply to  marty
February 14, 2022 11:46 am

38F last night here in SW Florida,USA Clear night so dog water bowl had a skim of ice at 5am.
28F last week. Lots of freeze damage. Sad.
I have seen a light dusting of snow about ten years ago. It was Horrible! But it was gone by 11am.
A small amount of Globull warming would be welcome.

February 14, 2022 6:41 am

I predict the climate will get warmer,
unless it gets colder.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Richard Greene
February 14, 2022 7:04 am

Is this a prediction or a projection?

Reply to  Richard Greene
February 14, 2022 7:28 am

Your prediction is right 50% of the time 🤓

Reply to  Richard Greene
February 14, 2022 8:11 am

Ask the finance guys – long on cooler, short on warmer.
There, a win-win!

February 14, 2022 8:13 am

I was recently alarmed and miffed to learn that my passport photo appears to have been placed into a facial recognition database without my knowing consent. I am sure there could have been fine print in something I signed, but I would have chose not to travel outside the country knowing my photo would be used for a database like this. I know people say it is inevitable, but I am still opposed and angry. I thought it was curious when I recently updated my 10yr old passport, and they requested a new photo. I sent in photos from an approved passport photography taker, Walgreens. However, the agency contacted me by mail and said the photo wasn’t good enough, and I had to have another photo taken at a different place.

Once you are in a database like this and the info falls into the wrong hands, then it could be used to surveil you for ever. People would protest if they had to be fingerprinted to travel abroad, but I don’t recall having to submit fingerprints when I got my passport, maybe I did?. I would argue photo recognition database is more of a violation against our rights then fingerprinting. Someone would have to finger print you again in order to verify your identity, not the case with facial recognition.

Now I have read that this initiative is somehow part of Bill Gates activism and the World Economic Forum working with out government. I have not verified this information, but what authority do these people have over our freedoms?

Reply to  Naysayer
February 14, 2022 5:32 pm

Same thing happened to me when I went in to renew my drivers license.

The lady told me it did not recognize me and we had to take another picture. Happened on the second & third pictures.

Apparently they don’t have an absolute rule, so she gave up and input the third picture.

(If it was Bill that instigated my having to waste another 5 minutes in the DMV, he can kiss my ass; do you want me to tell him the same for you?)

Last edited 7 months ago by DonM
February 14, 2022 8:20 am

Bad enough that AGW skeptics have to battle with enviro-activists and the mainstream media when it comes to outright disinformation that’s influencing the larger uninformed public, the additional problem is encountering conservatives who seem to have been hoodwinked by other spectacularly ignorant conservatives, or hoodwinked by enviro-activists wolves in sheep’s clothing:

In 2022, conservatives retake lead on the environment
By Steve Hilton , Benjamin Backer | Fox News

“… Republicans have the perfect opportunity to carry their momentum into the new year and present the American people with a better way forward on climate change that doesn’t include clunky government initiatives and misuse of tax dollars.”

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Russell Cook
February 15, 2022 4:40 am

The Republicans who believe in Human-caused Climate Change want to regulate CO2, they just want to do it a little differently than the Democrats by introducing Free Market principles to the “problem”.

True Believer Republicans need to be disabused of this erroneous thinking that CO2 is dangerous, before they do serious harm to our economy.

There is no evidence that CO2 needs to be regulated. There is no evidence that fossil fuel use needs to be reduced. True Believer Republicans are operating on false, unproven assumptions about CO2 and its effects on the Earth’s atmosphere.

True Believer Republicans and their CO2 “solutions” will have to be opposed because they are not based on reality. True Believer Republicans seem to be oblivious to this. They need a wake-up call.

Ireneusz Palmowski
February 14, 2022 8:26 am

The pattern and strength of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere indicates low February temperatures in North America.comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
February 14, 2022 8:39 am

The negative temperature anomaly in the lower stratosphere is moving into the upper troposphere, which could be a harbinger of a long winter in the northern hemisphere.comment image

Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
February 14, 2022 10:57 am

Hey, I want some snow here in my Kingdom. Snow is more important than anything else right now. Without a sufficient snow load, the rivers will not flood the wetlands and frustrate commuters into wondering why they decided to move out to the sticks.
I want SNOW!!! This is not negotiable.

Last edited 7 months ago by Sara
CD in Wisconsin
February 14, 2022 10:06 am

For anyone interested, the Accuweather website has an interesting story on the Great Blizzard that occurred 123 years ago in 1899 which hitt the Eastern U.S.

Of course, we were coming out of the Little Ice Age back then. But still, the storm created records that are still on the books today:

“The Snow King, also known as the Great Blizzard of 1899, embodied the term “historic” with snowfall totals and extremely low temperatures that are still etched in record books across the country to this day.

The predecessor of the National Weather Service, the Weather Bureau, called it “a snowstorm of unprecedented severity in the Middle Atlantic States” that was accompanied by “a freeze that for duration and severity stands unparalleled.””

Record cold and snow as far south as Tallahassee and Fort Myers, Florida:

“The wrath of the blizzard pummeled the mid-Atlantic between Feb. 11 and Feb. 14, 1899, with 20 to 30 inches of snow accumulating from central Virginia to western Connecticut, including 20.5 inches in the nation’s capital. This still stands as the second-biggest snowstorm to hit Washington, D.C., behind only the Knickerbocker storm of 1922. Cape May, New Jersey, recorded nearly a yard of snow, with 34 inches piling up in the popular beach town.

Snow drifts turned into mountains taller than the horses and carriages that tried to navigate the 19th-century streets, causing virtually all transportation across the region to shut down.
The mammoth blizzard spread snow far beyond the mid-Atlantic with snow reported as far south as Fort Myers, Florida. As much as 3 inches of snow accumulated in the Florida Panhandle with enough snow piling up in Tallahassee for residents to have snowball fights.”


When I read this piece, I find most anything the climate alarmists say about today’s meteorological events to be unimpressive. They never put today’s meteorological events in historical perspective, which is something I find persistently and seriously lacking about their argument on climate. Otherwise, the cherry-pick their starting dates in an act of deceit, leaving out data or evidence that does not support their position.

In the end, I remain unworried about whatever changes in climate are ahead of us. We humans have always had an intellect that enables us to adapt.

Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
February 14, 2022 11:03 am

Look up the blizzard of 1878. It shut down New York City. Then there is the blizzard of 1967, NOT in the weather forecast at all, that completely shut down Chicago.
Blizzards? Piece of cake. 🦖🦖🦖🦣

Tom Abbott
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
February 15, 2022 4:48 am

“They never put today’s meteorological events in historical perspective, which is something I find persistently and seriously lacking about their argument on climate.”

Alarmists cannot put things in historical perspective because if they did, then they couldn’t scare people with current weather events by calling them unprecedented.

Weather history shows there is very little that happens today in the weather that does not have a precendent in the past.

The year 1979 is about as far back as alarmists go when it comes to weather history. Anything before that didn’t happen, as far as they are concerned.

Mickey Reno
February 14, 2022 10:17 am

Not related to climate,

I was leafing through my music collection to listen to something I’d not heard for a while and came across the classic “Eat a Peach” from the Allman Brothers Band.. Right now I’m zoning out to the 44 minute “Mountain Jam.” I’ve shared it here and will leave it up for a while. Enjoy.

BTW, this track is digitized from the original vinyl double album on which it occupies two of the four sides. I used Audacity to seamlessly stitch the two halves of the track toether, which when played on a turntable, necessarily had a break in the smooth playback, and faded out at the end of it’s first half and then faded back in to begin the second half, which I always found annoying. You will not be able to tell where the break occurs.

If you like Allman Brothers concert jams, give it a listen.

Reply to  Mickey Reno
February 14, 2022 11:56 am

The beginning of the jam is a song by Donavan First there is a mountain then there is no mountain then there is. I saw Donavan as opener for YES back in 1974. Thanks i have not heard this album for over 40 years thanks and stop climate lockdowns before they begin

Reply to  Mickey Reno
February 14, 2022 1:54 pm

Why not just buy the CD? Digitized vinyl is never satisfactory.

Reply to  Roger
February 14, 2022 2:54 pm

CDs often are “overproduced” and often of bad quality – in contrast, if you have a good proggy, know to use it and digitize your self, the result is mostly much better and convenient for your ears and taste. For LPs I use “Magix Music Cleaning Lab” or “Wave Purity”.

I remember the CD from Alan Parsons Project, “Tales of Mystery and Imagination”, a friend called me and warned me to buy the CD as he did, a catastroph they produced he said, he threw it away. I had the original LP at home, made him a copy on CD and he was happy.

Last edited 7 months ago by Krishna Gans
February 14, 2022 10:25 am

If I may!

What do we really know about slavery!

And I mean the real one, of the ancient times, in the human civilization then.

Any one caring to follow this line, for an argument!


Tom Abbott
Reply to  whiten
February 15, 2022 5:06 am

What do we know about slavery?

One thing we know is slavery has been going on since the dawn of human time on Earth, and all races have been subject to slavery at one time or another.

We also know that slavery is an ongoing problem on Earth. There are lots of slaves coming across the U.S. southern border at the present time, with the cooperation of the Biden administration.

The Crime Cartels in cooperation with Joe Biden are creating many new slaves in the United States. If you are required to pay the Crime Cartels for your passage across the U.S. border, and you don’t have the money, then the Crime Cartels, with Biden’s help, transport you into the United States and tell you that you have to pay the debt you own them for bringing you across. That makes you their slave.

And that’s just one form of slavery created at the U.S. southern border because Joe Biden has refused to enforce U.S. border laws.

Joe Biden needs to be impeached and removed from office for dereliction of duty, as soon as possible.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 15, 2022 8:02 am

Yes of course,you are right, about that angle of description.
But if I may say,still in comparison it is not the same basically as it was then.

It was not illegal then and basically it was a way of normality of life, most of that time, not as miserable as described but still slavery.

The owner masters were not criminals or loan sharks… and a slave was actually a responsibility… and apart from the state slaves, mostly slaves were house servants… and/or a trade merchandise asset… for profit… to be taken care of and not harmed… mostly.

It could be said in a way that basically and essentially slavery was a societal platform or a method or a mechanism dealing with the most weakness expression of the human civilized society then.
In reality then, a non avoidable reality.


February 14, 2022 10:35 am

Nigel Farage is calling for a referendum in the UK on the Net Zero policy.

What is Net Zero?

“As net zero is the internationally agreed upon goal for mitigating global warming in the second half of the century, and the IPCC concluded the need for net zero CO2 by 2050 to remain consistent with 1.5C – t he purpose of this site is to inform effective climate action that is net zero aligned in order to advance progress towards this goal.”

The EPA website says:

“Net Zero is all about conserving water, reducing energy use, and eliminating solid waste to improve the environment, save money, and help communities become more sustainable and resilient. EPA researchers are accomplishing this goal by developing and implementing Net Zero strategies, approaches, and technologies like the ones listed on this site.”

Tom Abbott
Reply to  PaulinaUS
February 15, 2022 5:13 am

“Net Zero is all about conserving water, reducing energy use, and eliminating solid waste to improve the environment, save money, and help communities become more sustainable and resilient. EPA researchers are accomplishing this goal by developing and implementing Net Zero strategies, approaches, and technologies like the ones listed on this site.”

That’s all just “happy talk”. No substance. Typical.

Ireneusz Palmowski
February 14, 2022 12:32 pm

Let’s look at ultraviolet radiation in the 25th solar cycle. Sunspots are weak, no strong flares on the Sun.
Comparison of UV solar activity in the three most recent solar cycles (SC) 22-24. The thick curves show the Mg II index timeseries twice smoothed with a 55-day boxcar. Dates of minima of solar cycles (YYYYMMDD) were determined from the smoothed Mg II index.comment image

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
February 15, 2022 5:15 am

It looks like we are in a decline.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 15, 2022 5:32 am

This can be seen by the level of galactic radiation.comment image

Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
February 15, 2022 12:56 pm

No strong flares on the Sun???

What are you one more time telling us here, ren?

comment image

No idea why this MgII index from Bremen differs so heavily from both SSN and F10.7 cm.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Bindidon
February 15, 2022 1:01 pm

Weak solar wind, weak La Niña and extended in time.comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Bindidon
February 15, 2022 1:04 pm

Look at the reality.comment image

Nick Schroeder
February 14, 2022 3:29 pm

Out of the esoteric weeds and back on to the black top/white line basics.

The Earth is cooler with the atmosphere/GHGs/albedo not warmer.
Is this correct or incorrect?

To perform as advertised the GHGs require “extra” energy upwelling from the terrestrial surface radiating LWIR as a black body. See these graphics which contain egregious arithmetic and thermodynamic errors:
Is this correct or incorrect?

As explained and demonstrated by experiment the terrestrial surface cannot radiate/upwell “extra” energy as a black body. For the experimental write up see:
“The principle of science, the definition, almost, is the following: The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth.””
Richard P. Feynman, “Six Easy Pieces”
Is this correct or incorrect?

If even one of the above three points is correct the greenhouse effect theory is not.
No GHE, no GHG warming, no mankind/CO2 driven climate change or global warming.

Gunga Din
February 14, 2022 6:20 pm

Who could have pulled off old good movies that would have been just as good.
Example: “Father Goose” with Cary Grant. I think Jimmy Stuart could have played the lead and it would have been just as good, a bit different, but just as good. (John Wayne? Maybe but hard to convince the audience that he had been a college professor.)

Tim Beatty
February 14, 2022 10:02 pm

so no news outlets commenting how the warm, muddy Ukrainian winter that is slowing the Russian invasion plans? Climate Change is stopping WW3

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tim Beatty
February 15, 2022 5:24 am

I think the Russians are supposed to attack tomorrow, Wednesday.

If I were Putin, I wouldn’t attack tomorrow. I would sit tight, and laugh at all the Western Elites and all their handwringing and scaremongering, which would make them look even worse if no attack occurred.

I’m of the opinion that Putin attacking Ukraine has just as many pitfalls for Putin as for anyone, and I think Putin knows this, so I’ll be surprised if Putin does a full-scale attack on all of Ukraine.

Putin might try to occupy a land corridor to the Crimea. If he limited it to that, considering the appeasers opposing him, he might be able to get away with it.

Or Putin may just sit there with his military and keep the pressure on the Western Idiots until they give Putin something. Putin can sit there a long, long time if he wants. As long as he sits there and doesn’t do anything, he is winning.

Last edited 7 months ago by Tom Abbott
Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 15, 2022 9:50 am

The German economy is completely dependent on Russian gas. Putin has already obtained everything he wanted.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 15, 2022 1:38 pm

Some people might be shocked if they knew meaning of the insignia on the uniform of this Ukrainian soldier
comment image

Reply to  Vuk
February 15, 2022 1:43 pm

Or why Germans are not too keen to send arms to these people, may be Bidon should think again
comment image

February 15, 2022 8:34 am

Hi Mods
My reply to Tom Abbott above has gone into administration. I wonder if you could point at the transgression, so I would not repeat it again, taking your valuable time that you all devote to this blog to high standards.

February 15, 2022 10:53 am

Open Thread Question:

What do you get when you cross a (sometimes) Murderous Dictator with a Slutty Debutante?

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