The Week That Was: 2026-02-21 (February 21, 2026)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “[Scientists] have learned to respect nothing but evidence, and to believe that their highest duty lies in submitting to it however it may jar against their inclinations.”

— Thomas Henry Huxley, Evidence as to Man’s Place in Nature (1863)

Number of the Week: 52 ultra-large

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: This TWTW begins a discussion of additional physical evidence that 21^st century warming was largely natural, with little human influence. TWTW discusses a newly published paper on forecasting solar flares and its importance for modern civilization. Also discussed is a post by Andy May on the importance of the influence of maximum and minimum solar activity on civilizations since about 5700 BC. TWTW presents the summary of EPA’s formal recission of the Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding and David Wojick’s view that the press release announcing the recission provided elegant arguments for doing so. TWTW concludes with Roger Pielke, Jr.’s efforts to discover a rationale for the EPA ignoring water vapor in its 2009 Endangerment Finding.

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Sunshine a Pollutant? In 2009 the EPA published its Endangerment Finding declaring that carbon dioxide and many other greenhouse gases are pollutants because they may cause global warming that may be dangerous. Through mental gymnastics the EPA excluded water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas. EPA’s mental gymnastics will be discussed below. The January 24, 2026, TWTW discussed NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project started in 1997 at Langley Research Center in Virginia. From its website:

“Climate is controlled by the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the amount of infrared energy emitted to space. These quantities–together with their difference–define Earth’s radiation budget (ERB). The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of ERB and clouds. It uses measurements from CERES instruments flying on several satellites along with data from many other instruments to produce a comprehensive set of ERB data products for climate, weather, and applied science research. [Boldface added]

The goals of the CERES project are to:

• Produce a long-term, integrated global climate data record for detecting decadal changes in the Earth’s radiation budget from the surface to the top-of-atmosphere.
• Enable improved understanding of how Earth’s radiation budget varies in time and space and the role that clouds and other atmospheric properties play.
• Support climate model evaluation and improvement through model-observation intercomparisons.”

“CERES is the only project worldwide whose prime objective is to produce global climate data records of ERB from instruments designed to observe the ERB.”

At a science team meeting in May 2023, researcher Norman Loeb gave a presentation comparing the decade of 2000-2010 with the decade of 2013-2023 and asserting that:

• “For the entire period, the large positive ASR [Absorbed Solar Radiation by Earth’s surface] trend is primarily driven by reductions in low and middle clouds.
• The increase in OLR [Outgoing Longwave Radiation to space] (decrease in -OLR) is primarily due to increased emission from cloud-free regions.
• Low clouds exhibit far more variability across the different periods than any other cloud type.”

Loeb’s conclusions are:

• “CERES observations show a doubling in Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) during the CERES period.
• The EEI trend is primarily associated with an increase in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) partially offset by an increase in OLR. [Boldface added]
• ASR and SST global and regional trends track one another.

Large ASR trend primarily driven by reductions in low and middle clouds.

Ocean mixed layer heating (and SST) variations primarily associated with ocean heat fluxes as opposed to surface heat fluxes.

• Despite substantial variations in ASR and OLR trends for “hiatus,” “transition to El Niño,” and “post-El Niño” periods, NET trends are nearly identical in all 3 periods (within 0.1 Wm-2 dec-1).

Implies rate of increase in planetary heat uptake is relatively insensitive to internal climate variability during CERES.”[Boldface added]

In short, 21^st century warming was not caused by CO2 or the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), unless the latter caused a reduction in cloudiness.

The findings that decreasing cloudiness is responsible for 21^st century warming into 2023 were independently verified in a paper published in Remote Sensing of Environment by two Spanish and one Slovakian scientists. Their work applies to Europe. The abstract begins with:

“The increase of surface solar radiation (SSR) observed during the last decades in Europe has raised concerns for its implications for the climate system. Here, we evaluate the past and projected SSR trends in Europe from 1994 to 2054 based on a comprehensive set of ground site observations, five historical gridded datasets and a remarkable ensemble of 30 CMIP6 climate models with projections in four different forcing scenarios. Together, they provide a seamless unprecedented characterization of the SSR trend in Europe across time and space.”

The highlights include that changes in aerosols account for about 20% of the increase in surface solar radiation and changes in clouds about 80%. These studies based on physical evidence contradict the global climate models which assume, without strong physical evidence, that carbon dioxide is the primary driver of Earth’s temperature increases. See link under Science: Is the Sun Rising? For the January 24 TWTW see https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2026/TWTW%201-24-2026.pdf

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Changing Sun: The Sun is the most important determinant of Earth’s climate. The UN IPCC and the global climate modelers have taken the position that the Sun is very stable. The CERES-Science group of individual solar scientists (not to be confused with the NASA’s CERES project discussed above) announced a breakthrough in forecasting solar eruptions. This method was validated by correct forecasts of solar eruptions on the side of the sun not visible from Earth.

Recall that the sun does rotate, but as a ball of gas and plasma the equator rotates faster than the polar regions. The equator rotates about every 24-25 days while the polar regions about every 30 35 days.). Consequently, astronomers cannot observe parts of the sun for several weeks. Satellites such as the Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) orbit the sun in a highly elliptical orbit and took about 88 days to complete its first orbit, which now takes about 150 days. The probe is sending particularly useful data on magnetic field reversals (switchbacks), plasma waves, other information associated with solar activity including the solar wind. However, the probe transmits data intermittently, during the cooler positions of its orbit, thus it does not provide astronomers on Earth with constant observations of solar flares.

The press release of the CERES-Science team provided valuable information why forecasting solar flares is important for those on Earth. It begins with:

A team of scientists from around the world has created the first system that can predict when and where extremely powerful solar storms, called superflares, are most likely to happen. These storms can disrupt power grids, communications, and satellites, and even pose dangers to astronauts in space.

Instead of trying to predict the exact moment a solar storm will erupt (which is nearly impossible), this new approach identifies extended windows of time—ranging from several months to a year—when the Sun is more likely to produce these extreme events. The method also pinpoints which regions of the Sun are most at risk. The research has been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.

How the Forecasting System Works

The scientists analyzed nearly 50 years of data (1975–2025) from satellites that monitor the Sun’s X-ray emissions. They discovered two key patterns:

1. They identified specific zones on the Sun where magnetic energy builds up over time, making those areas more likely to produce powerful eruptions.

2. They found a rhythmic pattern in solar activity based on two natural cycles: a 1.7-year cycle and a 7-year cycle. When these cycles line up in certain ways, the risk of superflares increases significantly.

Using advanced mathematical techniques and machine learning, the team combined these patterns to forecast high-risk time periods and locations on the Sun. For the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25), their model predicts two main danger windows:

• Mid-2025 through mid-2026 (focused on the Sun’s southern hemisphere, between 5°S–25°S latitude)

• Early-to-mid 2027 (focused on the Sun’s northern hemisphere, between 10°N–30°N latitude)

Real-World Implications

Lead researcher Dr. Victor M. Velasco Herrera, from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, explained:

‘Traditional solar forecasting struggles with these extreme events because they happen so quickly and unpredictably. Our method gives space weather operators and satellite managers one to two years of advance warning about when conditions are most dangerous. This critical lead time allows them to prepare and protect communications systems, power grids, and astronaut safety.’

Dr. Velasco Herrera also noted the relevance for space missions:

‘NASA is right to postpone the Artemis II mission to the Moon until March, but given how active the Sun is right now, our forecasts suggest that delaying the launch until the end of 2026 may be a much safer decision.’”

The press release concludes with:

“Why This Matters

Solar superflares are the most powerful eruptions the Sun can produce. A direct hit from one of these storms could cause widespread power outages, damage satellites, disrupt GPS navigation, interfere with radio communications, and create radiation hazards for astronauts and airline passengers at high altitudes.

By providing advance warning of when and where these events are most likely to occur, this new forecasting system gives utilities, satellite operators, and space agencies valuable time to take protective measures—such as adjusting satellite orbits, preparing backup systems, or rescheduling space missions.

As Solar Cycle 25 continues to show strong activity, this breakthrough offers a significant improvement in our ability to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of extreme space weather.”

The team includes scientists from Mexico, the United States, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Czech Republic, and China. For more on a step to being able to understand our changing sun including the link to the paper see links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?

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The Neoglacial Period: Writing in WUWT, Petrophysicist Andy May identifies the Neoglacial Period as the beginning of glaciation following the Holocene Climate Optimum. His choice is after about 5700 BC when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) dramatically shifted southward resulting in a drying of the Sahara Desert (an area once wet). May gives proxy data showing that since 5700 BC there has been a general cooling interrupted by warm periods. During warm periods civilizations flourished. During colder periods, civilizations collapsed.

May largely attributes these warmer and colder periods to changes in solar activity. Particularly how many solar maxima or minima occurred during that period. [May uses the initials SGM for solar grand minimum and SGMx for solar grand maximum, an extended period of high solar activity lasting several decades.] May concludes his post with:

“The Roman Warm Period is notable because it coincides with three consecutive solar grand maxima and contains no solar grand minima. It is also within one of the longest periods in the Holocene without an SGM. The other such long gap, from 2450 to 1385BC, essentially marks the peak of the Bronze Age.

The European Dark Age can be identified by lower temperatures in the Vinther record between 500 and 800AD and an SGM at 690AD. The Medieval Warm Period exists between the SGM at 690AD and one at 1030AD and is more of a transitional period into the Little Ice Age than a true warm period like the RWP. The Little Ice Age has no SGMxs and four SGMs, with an exceptionally long one at 1470AD. The Vinther record reaches its coldest point at 1700AD, and the North Pacific Rosenthal record is coldest at about 1810AD, so 1750AD is a reasonable Northern Hemisphere date for the modern warm period to begin. The last SGM is centered on 1680AD, and it lasts from 1640 to 1720AD.

Once the last SGM is done, the next solar event is the Modern Solar Maximum centered on 1970 and from 1930 to 2010. It is the longest solar maximum since 3,170BC and the first solar maximum since 505AD.

Discussion

I am definitely not saying that solar variability is the only thing causing climate change and I do not think it is stronger than the Milankovitch orbital cycles (see figure 4 here). But, when we came out of the Little Ice Age, the coldest period in the entire Holocene Epoch, and a period with no solar grand maxima and four solar grand minima, including the strongest SGM (as measured by duration) in the Holocene, one has to consider that solar variability contributed to the Little Ice Age.

Then we must consider the Modern Warming Period. It coincides with the first solar grand maximum in 1,465 years and the strongest in 5,140 years. It seems quite reasonable to conclude that the modern solar grand maximum contributed to the observed recent climate changes. Climate change is a complex combination of the Milankovitch cycles, solar cycles, and (maybe) anthropogenic factors. It does not have just one cause at any time scale.”

See link under Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

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Rescission: On February 18, the Federal Register posted EPA’s formal recission of the Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding. The Summary states:

“In this action, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is rescinding the Administrator’s 2009 findings of contribution and endangerment and repealing all greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards for light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty vehicles and engines to effectuate the best reading of Clean Air Act (CAA) section 202(a)(1). The EPA determines that CAA section 202(a)(1) does not authorize the Agency to prescribe emission standards in response to global climate change concerns for multiple reasons, including the best reading of the statutory terms ‘air pollution,’ ‘cause,’ ‘contribute,’ and ‘reasonably be anticipated to endanger.’ This statutory interpretation is corroborated by application of the major questions doctrine. The EPA further determines that GHG emission standards for new motor vehicles and engines do not impact in any material way the public health and welfare concerns identified in the Administrator’s prior findings in 2009. On these multiple and independent bases, the EPA concludes that it lacks statutory authority to regulate GHG emissions in response to global climate change concerns under CAA section 202(a)(1), and is not finalizing the additional bases for repeal set out in the proposed rule.”

The final action is effective on April 20, 2026. TWTW understand that parties that wish to be on the formal record of opposing or supporting this action must file within 30 days of the posting in the Federal Register. Others can join those parties later. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Elegant Arguments? Writing for CFACT, David Wojick addresses what he calls “EPA’s elegant arguments for endangerment repeal” based on EPA’ lengthy press release. Wojick writes in part:

“There is an element of the endangerment finding that is so blatantly wrong that it is hilarious. I would start with it because it certainly makes EPA’s case for repeal, at least in part. EPA mentions it in passing saying this:

‘In an unprecedented move, the Obama EPA found that carbon dioxide emissions emitted from automobiles – in combination with five other gases, some of which vehicles don’t even emit – contribute an unknown amount to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere….’

So, they used the tailpipe statute to assess (and then regulate) gases that tailpipes do not emit. There is clearly no statutory basis for these endangerment findings. [Boldface added]

These are not scientific issues, and SCOTUS does not normally adjudicate science. There are, however, one and a half scientific arguments in case the science comes up. That is, one argument is fully stated in the release while the other is merely alluded to.

Here is the fully stated argument:

‘Using the same types of models utilized by the previous administrations and climate change zealots, EPA now finds that even if the U.S. were to eliminate all GHG emissions from all vehicles, there would be no material impact on global climate indicators through 2100.’

This is actually an endangerment finding, namely that there is none.

Here is the alluded to argument:

‘…. the Obama EPA found that carbon dioxide emissions emitted from automobiles – in combination with five other gases, some of which vehicles don’t even emit – contribute an unknown amount to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that, in turn, play a role through varied causal chains that may endanger human health and welfare.’

The several scientific issues here are the reality of the ‘varied causal chains’ claimed in the Obama endangerment finding. These causal issues include a great deal of alarmism.

As science, the endangerment finding is a complex attribution claim, and these are highly speculative and contentious. These causal chain issues may be elaborated in the technical support documents for the repeal. But if they are at least mentioned, as in the release, it creates a placeholder for them, in case they come up during the SCOTUS arguments.”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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The Missing Gas: Among the big holes in EPA’s 2009 Endangerment Finding that greenhouse gas emission endanger human health and welfare is the missing gas – water vapor, which is the dominant greenhouse gas. Compounding the problem is that global climate modelers add H2O to increasing CO2 without physical evidence that water vapor is increasing as the globe warms. Further, as stated in previous TWTWs, water vapor along with CO2 is saturated (as demonstrated by AMO physicists), which means that the adding more gas does not result in the absorption of significantly more energy. [According to Google this fact is identified as a myth by Skeptical Science.]

Roger Pielke Jr. considers “The Water Vapor Problem” as the weak point in EPA’s greenhouse gas regulation. After describing the mental gymnastics to trace why water vapor is excluded for the list of regulated greenhouse gases, Pielke writes:

“To the extent that the 2009 Endangerment Finding offers a justification for omitting water vapor from its basket of pollutants, it adopts a de minimis argument — That the effects of water vapor are too small to be worthy of regulation (emphases added):

‘Water produced as a byproduct of combustion at low altitudes has a negligible contribution to climate change. . . The [IPCC] report also addressed anthropogenic contributions to water vapor arising from large scale irrigation, but assigned it a very low level of understanding…’

However, as you’ve read above, the Supreme Court in Mass. vs. EPA rejected a de minimis argument. Yet the EPA in 2009 advanced one anyway to exclude water vapor. That exclusion has gone unchallenged ever since.

The omission of water vapor in the basket of regulated greenhouse gases is the weakest part of the 2009 Endangerment Finding, as it is totally inconsistent with EPA’s arguments about the inclusion of the other six gases.

As a practical matter, the regulation of water vapor would be a huge policy and political mess, imposing enormous costs across the U.S. economy. It would not be feasible, nor would it make policy sense.

I suppose that is why it was not included in EPA’s 2009 basket of gases. As a matter of simple politics — iron law and all that — the inclusion of water vapor would have stopped in its tracks the novel approach to GHG regulation conceived of in the 2009 Endangerment Finding.

The EPA rescission ruling of last week argued correctly that water vapor should have been included in EPA’s 2009 GHG basket under the logic of the Endangerment Finding: …”

See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.

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Number of the Week: 52 ultra-large. According to a report cited by Paul Homewood and Jo Nova, in 2025 China opened 52 ultra-large coal-fired power plants capable of generating 78 GW (gigawatt) of electrical power. Plants 1 GW or larger are called ultra-large. At full capacity, a 1 GW plant produces 1 billion watts constantly – enough to power a city of about 700,000 people. These plants are clearly intended for baseload power, not backup for wind and solar. The report was sponsored by environmental groups and demonstrates that China’s commitment to unreliable renewable energy is for show, not for go (for appearance, not for practical use). See links under Energy Issues – General.

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Science: Is the Sun Rising?

Scientists Successfully Predict When and Where Dangerous Solar Storms Are Likely to Happen

By CERES team, CERES-Science, Feb 16, 2026

https://www.ceres-science.com/post/scientists-successfully-predict-when-and-where-dangerous-solar-storms-are-likely-to-happen

Link to paper: A New Method for Probabilistic Spatiotemporal Forecasts of Solar Soft X-Ray “S-Class” (>X10) Superflares

V. M. Velasco Herrera, et al., JGR Space Physics, Feb 13, 2026

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JA034977

Past, current and future solar radiation trends in Europe: Multi-source assessment of the role of clouds and aerosols

By Leandro C. Segado-Moreno, et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Jan 15, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425725005267?via%3Dihub

[SEPP Comment: Independent verification of NASA’s CERES project findings.]

Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

The Neoglacial Period

By Andy May, WUWT, Feb 19, 2026

The Neoglacial Period

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Click to access CCR-II-Full.pdf

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer

The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere

By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023

Click to access The-Role-of-Greenhouse-Gases-in-Energy-Transfer-in-the-Earths-Atmosphere.pdf

Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases

By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020

https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936

Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase

By Richard Lindzen, William Happer, and William A. van Wijngaarden, CO2 Coalition, June 2024

Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase

Radiation Transport in Clouds

By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Klimarealistene, Science of Climate Change, January 2025

Click to access SCC-2025-vWijngaarden-Happer.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Rescission of the Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding and Motor Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Under the Clean Air Act

A Rule by the Environmental Protection Agency on 02/18/2026

By EPA, Federal Register, Feb 18, 2026

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/02/18/2026-03157/rescission-of-the-greenhouse-gas-endangerment-finding-and-motor-vehicle-greenhouse-gas-emission

#DoEDeepDive: Ch. 6.3 on extreme temperatures

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

#DoEDeepDive: Ch. 6.3 on extreme temperatures

As the report authors explain:

“The average difference for each station between the hottest summer Tmax and coldest winter Tmin has declined by about 5°F in the past 126 years. The decline is due mostly to warmer winter Tmin, but a decline in summer Tmax is also a factor. The rise in Tmin has been strongly related to the growing presence of manufactured surfaces around the weather stations over the last 100+ years (the so-called urban heat island effect).”

EPA’s elegant arguments for endangerment repeal

By David Wojick, CFACT, Feb 19, 2026

EPA’s elegant arguments for endangerment repeal

Link to press release: President Trump and Administrator Zeldin Deliver Single Largest Deregulatory Action in U.S. History

By Staff, EPA Press Office, Feb 12, 2026

https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/president-trump-and-administrator-zeldin-deliver-single-largest-deregulatory-action-us

The Cult | A Net Zero Watch Short Film

7 plus minute video Colin Brazier, Feb 16, 2026

https://www.netzerowatch.com/videos/v/dm7f792thk2btl3wtteaf7n85ztj68

Academia has been captured by a new orthodoxy censoring others. Delegitimize the opponents. Fantasy is the foundation of climate science.

Defending the Orthodoxy

Mad Emperor Trump declares war on the air

By Max Burns, The Hill, Feb 11, 2026

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5731861-trump-war-on-clean-air

Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies

Global Sustainability

Ten new insights in climate science 2025

By Daniel Ospina, et al., Cambridge University Press, Jan 8, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/ten-new-insights-in-climate-science-2025/8273DE03FB570A1C5EB88D0112AFE37D

Non-Technical Summary

This review highlights 10 recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, spanning diverse topics: (1) the global temperature jump of 2023–2024; (2) sea surface warming and marine heatwaves; (3) land carbon sinks; (4) interactions between climate change and biodiversity loss; (5) accelerated groundwater decline; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) income and labor productivity loss; (8) strategic considerations for scaling carbon dioxide removal (CDR); (9) integrity of carbon credit markets; and (10) policy mixes for climate change mitigation.

Reversing the endangerment finding, Trump’s EPA puts polluters over people

By Byron Gudiel and Abigail Dillen, The Hill, Feb 14, 2026

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5737863-climate-change-threatens-communities

Abigail Dillen is president of Earthjustice and Byron Gudiel is executive director of the Center for Earth, Energy and Democracy. They are members of the Platform for a Just Climate, a national coalition working to advance environmental justice.

Raising kids today means having to answer difficult questions about our changing climate — like why the air will sometimes smell like smoke, or why we can’t play outside when it’s too hot. As parents raising kids in California, we have to answer these questions more frequently.

[SEPP Comment: Fires violate environmental justice?]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Claim: AI and Air Conditioning are Threatening Renewable Energy Dominance

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 16, 2026

Claim: AI and Air Conditioning are Threatening Renewable Energy Dominance

Link to paper: Energy demand and decarbonization in 2025 and beyond

By Diana Ürge-Vorsatz & Felix Creutzig

Nature Reviews Clean Technology, Jan 20, 2026

https://www.nature.com/articles/s44359-025-00139-w

[SEPP Comment: It is terrible that people use electricity on still nights?]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Waiting to Exhale?

The EPA’s retreat from regulating CO₂ as a pollutant reframes climate orthodoxy, arguing that carbon dioxide underpins modern prosperity as much as it complicates environmental debates.

By Anthony J. Sadar, American Greatness, Feb 20, 2026

Waiting to Exhale?

The serious concern has been whether human activity, especially the increasing use of fossil fuels since the late 1800s, has tipped the natural balance.

Yet from another perspective, one of the greatest contributors to the elevation of people from the depths of poverty has been the “burning of fossil fuels.” The advancement from coal to oil to natural gas, along with progressions in pollution controls, has substantially contributed to enormously better standards of living for societies that have properly utilized their energy resources.

The Water Vapor Problem

The weak point in EPA greenhouse gas regulation

By Roger Pielke Jr., His Blog, Feb 17, 2026

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-water-vapor-problem

Why Rethinking Climate Change–Nicola Scafetta

By Ron Clutz, His blog, Feb 14, 2026

Why Rethinking Climate Change–Nicola Scafetta

From: Rethinking climate change: Natural variability, solar forcing, model uncertainties, and policy implications

By Nicola Scafetta, Phys.org, Feb 11, 2026

https://phys.org/news/2026-02-rethinking-climate-natural-variability-solar.html

U.S. judges saved from alarmist tome

By David Wojick, CFACT, Feb 13, 2026

U.S. judges saved from alarmist tome

Link to letter to Director of the Federal Judicial Center from numerous state AG’s

By John McCuskey, AG West Virginia, Jan 29, 2026

https://ago.wv.gov/media/37684/download?inline

Unprecedented precedents

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

Unprecedented precedents

To survive in state-funded climate science, you cannot of course talk in such a blunt manner, especially if say you were hoping to be published by Copernicus. So the paper puts the “Workers of the world, unite” sign right in the window, starting its abstract:

“Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) warming events are comparable in magnitude and rate to the anticipated 21st century warming. As such, they provide a good target for evaluation of the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate rapid climate changes.”

Riiight. Rapid natural changes let us simulate rapid man-made ones. But never mind.

Widespread slowdown in short-term species turnover despite accelerating climate change

By Emmanuel C. Nwankwo & Axel G. Rossberg, Nature Communications, Feb 3, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68187-1

Our results suggest that observed past changes in species composition were often manifestations of natural, intrinsic ecosystem dynamics. Although one can expect environmental drivers to dominate species turnover eventually as climate change accelerates further, for now such attribution should be done with caution.

President Trump Not an Outlier on Climate

Green activists may be appalled by the Trump administration’s placement of economic growth, national security, and energy affordability ahead of fighting climate change — but they don’t have the final word.

By William R. Hawkins, American Thinker, Feb 19, 2026

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2026/02/president_trump_not_an_outlier_on_climate.html

We Told You So: EPA Was Wrong About CO2 From the Start

By Wayne Christian, WUWT, Feb 14, 2026

We Told You So: EPA Was Wrong About CO2 From the Start

World is Better Off Dispelling Al Gore Climate Fears

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Feb 15, 2026

World is Better Off Dispelling Al Gore Climate Fears

From: Miranda Devine: Trump debunking Al Gore’s climate fears has made the world a better place

By Miranda Devine, New York Post, Feb 11, 2025

https://nypost.com/2026/02/11/opinion/trump-administration-debunking-al-gores-climate-fears-made-the-world-a-better-place

Energy & Environmental Review: February 16, 2026

By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Feb 16, 2026

Energy & Environmental Review: February 16, 2026

Problems in the Orthodoxy

FOE Accuses Big Tech of Lying about the Climate Benefits of AI

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 18, 2026

FOE Accuses Big Tech of Lying about the Climate Benefits of AI

Link to report: The AI Climate Hoax: Behind the Curtain of How Big Tech Greenwashes Impacts

By Ketan Joshi, Beyond Fossil Fuels, Climate Action Against Disinformation, Green Screen Coalition, Stand earth, Friends of the Earth (FOE), and Green Web Foundation, February 2026

Click to access AI-for-climate-claims-Report_FEB-2026_FINAL.pdf

How can big tech fix this staff rebellion? Because as the CEO of Honeywell recently explained, powering AI with renewables isn’t going to happen.

Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

Climate pollution causes boreal forests to grow 12% — recklessly spreading greenery in Arctic

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 14, 2026

https://joannenova.com.au/2026/02/climate-pollution-causes-boreal-forests-to-grow-12-recklessly-spreading-greenery-in-arctic

The effect of additional CO2 on Indian goosegrass

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

The effect of additional CO2 on Indian goosegrass

From the CO2Science Archive:

Seeking a Common Ground

A Climatologist Asks: What Is The Correct CO2 Concentration?

A scientific thought experiment in a post-Endangerment world.

By Dr. Matthew Wielicki, By Climate Change Dispatch, Feb 18, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

A Climatologist Asks: What Is The Correct CO2 Concentration?

[SEPP Comment: Enough for plants to flourish? Ask a botanist not a climate modeler.]

We never stopped foreign aid, but now we are doing more with less

By Bjorn Lomborg, The Hill, Feb 17, 2025

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5740145-we-never-stopped-foreign-aid-but-now-we-are-doing-more-with-less

Similarly, America has an excellent opportunity to do great good at low cost in malaria prevention and treatment. Malaria once afflicted nearly the entire inhabited world, including the US where it was endemic in 36 states as late as the 1940s. Advances in medicine, insecticides, and urbanization have eradicated it in many areas, but it persists in sub-Saharan Africa.

An annual investment of just $1.1 billion annually can prevent 200,000 deaths each year, while enhancing productivity and stability in poor countries. Conservative estimates indicate that every dollar invested returns $48 of benefits–a clear projection of American prosperity and strength.

[SEPP Comment: Indoor spraying of huts every six months with DDT was very effective in controlling Malaria until the US EPA banned DDT and the world followed.]

Science, Policy, and Evidence

When the Weather Turns, Permitting Failure Gets Expensive

By Toby Z. Rice, WUWT, Feb 15, 2026

When the Weather Turns, Permitting Failure Gets Expensive

When temperatures plunge, demand spikes, and reliability matters most, the grid depends on resources that are dispatchable, fuel-secure, and available around the clock. That dependence is not ideological; it is operational.

Model Issues

When Climate Data Don’t Match the Climate Story

By Les Coleman, The Daily Sceptic, Feb 15, 2026

https://dailysceptic.org/2026/02/15/when-climate-data-dont-match-the-climate-story

Link to paper: Coleman: Could CO2 be the Principal Cause of Global Warming?

By Les Coleman, Science of Climate Change, Nov 15, 2025

Coleman: Could CO2 be the Principal Cause of Global Warming?

From the abstract: The principal finding is that the central hypothesis of ACC [Anthropogenic Climate Change] seems spurious, and due to simultaneous rises in global temperature and atmospheric CO2 which independently follow unrelated, time trending variables. ACC is further questioned by the existence of joint test and missing variables problems. Exploring CO2’s limited ability to explain warming by incorporating unsuspected forcers shows that humidity leads temperature and explains most of its increase; further, oceanic oscillations and cereal production are stronger explanators of temperature than CO2.

Measurement Issues — Surface

The University of East Anglia Discovers the Urban Heat Island Effect

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 16, 2026

The University of East Anglia Discovers the Urban Heat Island Effect

Link to paper: Amplified warming in tropical and subtropical cities under 2 °C climate change

By S. Berk, et al., PNAS, Feb 3, 2026

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2502873123

Claim: 99.999% of Climate Scientists Agree Australia was Cooler in the 1890s

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 19, 2026

Claim: 99.999% of Climate Scientists Agree Australia was Cooler in the 1890s

One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts asked a series of questions about science, including data showing cause and effect, when Dr Karl had an issue with his line of questioning.

“Let’s see if we can agree on something. Do you agree that the climate records show that the last 10 years have been the hottest on record worldwide?” he asked.

Senator Roberts immediately disagreed, claiming the past decade had been “cooler than the 1880s and 1890s in Australia”.

Changing Weather

Analyzing The Western Water Crisis

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 20, 2026

Analyzing The Western Water Crisis

16-minute plus video

[SEPP Comment: Heller uses current data, the oldest 1890. The issues of prolonged droughts go back thousands of years. Video may be blocked.]

Changing Climate

New Study: A 4°C Warmer Beaufort Sea Had ‘No Sea Ice’ 11,700 – 8200 Years Ago

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 16, 2026

New Study: A 4°C Warmer Beaufort Sea Had ‘No Sea Ice’ 11,700 – 8200 Years Ago

Link to paper: Holocene sea ice and paleoenvironment conditions in the Beaufort Sea (Canadian Arctic) reconstructed with lipid biomarkers

By Madeleine Santos, et al., Climate of the Past, Jan 22, 2026

Click to access cp-22-187-2026.pdf

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Arctic Ice Nearly Average mid-February 2026

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Feb 14, 2026

Arctic Ice Nearly Average mid-February 2026

Changing Seas

WUWT Leads The Way Again

By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 16, 2026

WUWT Leads The Way Again

Link to paper: A Global Perspective on Local Sea Level Changes

By Hessel G. Voortman and Rob De Vos, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Aug 27, 2025

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13/9/1641

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sea Level Rise and Related Hazards Assessment)

January 2026 Ocean SSTs Warm Slightly

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Feb 19, 2026

January 2026 Ocean SSTs Warm Slightly

The Real Threat To Under Salt Marsh? Certainly Not Climate Change!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2025

The Real Threat To Under Salt Marsh? Certainly Not Climate Change!

Nobody would, of course, dream of building a village in such a place now. Whether it is worth spending money to protect it is one I cannot answer. But according to the scientists, there are cheap solutions which will ensure Fairbourne remains habitable for a long time to come.

Lowering Standards

BBC Admit Great Barrier Reef Report Was “Misleading”

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 16, 2025

BBC Admit Great Barrier Reef Report Was “Misleading”

A small victory!!

Australia’s Problem Child, The BOM.

By Geoff Sherrington, WUWT, Feb 17, 2026

Australia’s Problem Child, The BOM.

Disgraceful conduct from the Australian Government’s Bureau of Meteorology, BOM, is alleged and documented.

Dutch trick

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

Dutch trick

As we mentioned last week, the Royal Dutch Meteorological Agency (KNMI) has been forced to admit that they artificially scrubbed historical heatwaves from their temperature records, after a group of analysts with Clintel, the Dutch climate skeptics group, published a report exposing the monkey business. The story is fascinating both for the scientific content and what it reveals about government climate agencies, so we decided to go through it in more detail this week. And indeed the story has all the elements we have grown accustomed to: outsiders doing the investigation neither government nor academic experts could be bothered with, the government using its clout to suppress media discussion of the criticism, then after years of stonewalling quietly admitting the skeptics were right all along.

Unfudging The Data: Dutch Meteorological Institute Reinstates Early 20th Century Heat Waves It Had Erased Earlier

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 14, 2026

Unfudging The Data: Dutch Meteorological Institute Reinstates Early 20th Centruy Heat Waves It Had Erased Earlier

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Trump Endangers Endangerment Finding

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

Trump endangers endangerment finding

Someone at the [New York] Times has got Ctrl-C Ctrl-V down pat, because the main story, after repeating the trope “the bedrock scientific finding that greenhouse gases threaten human life and well being”, also said:

“President Trump on Thursday announced he was erasing the scientific finding that climate change endangers human health and the environment, ending the federal government’s legal authority to control the pollution that is dangerously heating the planet.”

Wrong, The Week, Climate Change Didn’t Shrink U.S. Paychecks

By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Feb 12, 2026

Wrong, The Week, Climate Change Didn’t Shrink U.S. Paychecks

Climate Change is Not Going to Cost Colorado Billions, Colorado Sun

By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Feb 19, 2026

Climate Change is Not Going to Cost Colorado Billions, Colorado Sun

Wrong, Inside Climate News, Climate Change Isn’t Worsening Wildlife Viruses in New Jersey

By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Feb 18, 2026

Wrong, Inside Climate News, Climate Change Isn’t Worsening Wildlife Viruses in New Jersey

Link to article: Climate Change Could Make This Horrific New Jersey Wildlife Disease Worse

By Alex Megerle. Inside Climate News, Feb 17, 2026

Climate Change Could Make This Horrific New Jersey Wildlife Disease Worse

From Watts: Inside Climate News is right to describe ranavirus as a serious wildlife disease. But attempting to link its spread to climate change is unwarranted. The story admits the outbreaks have no clear, consistent environmental trigger in the data, then pivots to climate change anyway, making this irresponsible reporting on a dangerous pathogen.

[SEPP Comment: Major hotspots for ranavirus include the Northeast US, cooler than New Jersey.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

Kings College London: UK Climate Action Support Plummeting

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 14, 2026

Kings College London: UK Climate Action Support Plummeting

But a majority still say Net Zero should be achieved by 2050 or earlier.

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

Tidbits

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

Tidbits

Meanwhile the Canadian government, which promised an “austerity and investment budget” in 2025 in an apparent effort to avoid criticism by abolishing the laws of logic starting with the “undistributed middle”, has since been signing off on pretty much every funding proposal anyone can think of. Especially if it’s got some green tinsel. Hence “The Sackville Community Arena will be reducing its greenhouse gas emissions after an investment of $1.3 million from the federal government.” The planet is saved. But the money is not, since every form of spending imaginable is now an investment… in their reelection.

Questioning European Green

The Case Against Net Zero – a Fourteenth Update

Unachievable Disastrous Pointless

By Robin Guenier, Climate Scepticism, Feb 18, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

The Case Against Net Zero – a Fourteenth Update

Questioning Green Elsewhere

‘Net Zero’ is NOT affordable by the 6 billion living in poverty!

By Ronald Stein and Nancy Pearlman, America Out Loud News, Feb 16, 2026

https://www.americaoutloud.news/net-zero-is-not-affordable-by-the-6-billion-living-in-poverty

Non-Green Jobs

Oklahoma Smelter the First Fruits of Trump Aluminum Policy

By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clera Energy, Feb 19, 2026

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/02/19/oklahoma_smelter_the_first_fruits_of_trump_aluminum_policy_1165813.html

By 2016, 18 of the 23 aluminum plants in the U.S. operating in 1998 had permanently closed.

Funding Issues

Was Climate Change Greatest Financial Scandal in History?

By Stephen Moore, Newsmax, Feb 18, 2026 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://www.newsmax.com/stephenmoore/alarmists-gore-kerry/2026/02/18/id/1246500

Environmental scholar Bjorn Lomborg recently calculated that across the globe, governments have spent at least $16 trillion feeding the climate change industrial complex.

And for what?

The Political Games Continue

Recognizing Failure, Some Liberals Are Reshaping Their Climate Messaging

By Gary Abernathy, Real Clear Energy, Feb 19, 2026

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/02/19/recognizing_failure_some_liberals_are_reshaping_their_climate_messaging_1165605.html

Yes, Republicans Support Solar and the Environment. My City Is Living Proof.

By Francis Suarez, Real Clear Energy, Feb 17. 2026

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/02/17/yes_republicans_support_solar_and_the_environment_my_city_is_living_proof_1165412.html

Litigation Issues

EPA’s Greenhouse Gas “Endangerment Finding”: Finally Gone

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 15, 2026

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2026-2-15-epas-greenhouse-gas-endangerment-finding-finally-gone

The litigation goes in the first instance to the DC Circuit. That court is likely to find some basis to reverse EPA’s action; and that likely would have been true no matter how definitive a showing on the science EPA could have made. Meanwhile, the current Supreme Court looks like it will be highly sympathetic to the arguments that EPA is putting forward in this Document. It’s really a question of how quickly it can get there.

End Of The Endangerment Finding: Will “Net Zero” Ever Get Back On Track In The U.S.?

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 18, 2026

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2026-2-17-end-of-the-endangerment-finding-will-net-zero-ever-get-back-on-track-in-the-us

It only took literal minutes for the first lawsuit challenging the Rescission to get filed.  Here, via the website of the Union of Concerned Scientists, is a copy of a Petition that they say was filed today on behalf of a large group of environmental and “health” organizations:  American Public Health Association, Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments, American Lung Association, Center for Biological Diversity, Center for Community Action and Environmental Justice, Clean Air Council, Clean Wisconsin, Conservation Law Foundation, Environmental Defense Fund, Environmental Law & Policy Center, Friends of the Earth, Natural Resources Defense Council, Physicians for Social Responsibility, Public Citizen, Rio Grande International Study Center, Sierra Club, and Union of Concerned Scientists. 

Health, green groups challenge EPA move to repeal finding that climate change endangers the public

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 18, 2026

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5743410-trump-epa-endangerment-finding-climate-change

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

Public health, green groups sue EPA over repeal of rule supporting climate protections

By Matthew Daly, AP, Feb 18, 2026

https://apnews.com/article/trump-climate-change-epa-clean-air-act-27a69e8e349bd8cc7091af202b81517c

EPA’s repeal of the endangerment finding, along with the elimination of safeguards to limit vehicle emissions, “marks a complete dereliction of the agency’s mission to protect people’s health and its legal obligations under the Clean Air Act,’’ said Gretchen Goldman, president and CEO at the Union of Concerned Scientists, which is part of the suit.

“This shameful and dangerous action … is rooted in falsehoods, not facts, and is at complete odds with the public interest and the best available science,” Goldman said. Heat-trapping emissions and global average temperatures are rising — primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels — contributing to a mounting human and economic toll across the world, she said.

After the Endangerment Finding, States Must Prove CO2 Harms. Wisconsin Can’t.

By Andrew Weiss, Real Clear Energy, Feb 19, 2026

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/02/19/after_the_endangerment_finding_states_must_prove_co2_harms_wisconsin_cant_1165616.html

Link to Special Report: Wisconsin Energy Policy: Innovating Within the Regulated Monopoly & Dismantling the Climate Case Against Hydrocarbons

By Andrew Weiss, Weiss Energy Policy Institute, Feb 18, 2026

Click to access Wisconsin%20Energy%20Policy%20Innovating%20within%20the%20regulated%20monopoly%20and%20dismatling%20the%20climate%20case%20against%20hydrocarbons_OTg1MT.pdf

Some findings:

Urban Wisconsin warms 1.7°F per century while rural temperatures stagnate [From 1905]

Rural stations correlate 1-to-1 with statewide satellite data

Extreme temperatures moderating in Wisconsin [From 1893]

Wisconsin heatwave durations have fallen 71% since 1900

Trump administration sued over renewed oil, gas development push in Alaska reserve

By Ashleigh Fields, The Hill, Feb 18, 2025

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5743617-trump-federal-lawsuits-alaska-drilling

The Trump administration is now facing two federal lawsuits over its renewed push to open the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for more oil and drilling opportunities.

Energy Issues – General

China Opened 78 GW Of Coal Power Plants In 2025

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 16, 2025

China Opened 78 GW Of Coal Power Plants In 2025

Link to report: Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China

By Qi Qin, CREA; Christine Shearer, GEM; Belinda Schaepe, CREA, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor, February 2026

Click to access CREA_GEM_China_Coal-power_H2-2025.pdf

They will form the backbone of China’s power supply for decades to come.

The green blob might not like it, but China’s leaders live in the real world.

China goes gangbusters building 52 big coal plants in 2025

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 20, 2026

https://joannenova.com.au/2026/02/china-goes-gangbusters-building-52-big-coal-plants-in-2025

Link to: Countries and territories with the largest number of operational coal power plants worldwide as of July 2025

By Staff, Statista, 2026

https://www.statista.com/statistics/859266/number-of-coal-power-plants-by-country/?srsltid=AfmBOopHjHhosYh_lm3tIn2GSz48B_PzxzQSDwsbZO-bWrbNBgbNI2n-

[SEPP Comment: According to Statista the numbers by country are: China, 1,195; India 290; US 195; Indonesia 92; Japan 87; Russia 63; Germany 41; Poland 40; Turkey 34; Philippines 27; South Korea 25; Vietnam 25. So much for the EU’s leadership by example.]

Coal Power Back In Trend As Globe Tries To Keep Pace With Growing Demand For Power

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 18, 2026

Coal Power Back In Trend As Globe Tries To Keep Pace With Growing Demand For Power

While Europe shuts down, China and the rest of the world are expanding their coal-fired power generation rapidly.

Forging and vaulting ahead for critical minerals

By Duggan Flanakin, CFACT, Feb 13, 2026

Forging and vaulting ahead for critical minerals

David Copley from the National Security Council lamented the fact that onerous permitting and litigation frameworks have resulted in a 29-year timeframe for opening a new U.S. mine. Worse, the U.S. is graduating only 200 to 250 mining engineers annually. The Trump Administration no longer views mining as a “dirty old-world industry,” said Copley.

Energy Issues – Europe

Starmer surrenders to EU net zero rules

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2025

Starmer surrenders to EU net zero rules

[SEPP Comment: From a sinking ship to a ship sinking faster?]

Chris Stark: The economics of clean energy ‘just get better and better’

By Simon Evans, Carbon Brief, Feb 17, 2026

Chris Stark: The economics of clean energy ‘just get better and better’

The economics of clean energy “just get better and better”, leaving opponents of the transition looking like “King Canute”, says Chris Stark.

Stark is head of the UK government’s “mission” to deliver clean power by 2030, having previously been chief executive of the advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC).

[SEPP Comment: As electricity costs to consumers soar!]

Miliband to ‘miss net zero targets unless he spends extra £75bn’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 18, 2025

Miliband to ‘miss net zero targets unless he spends extra £75bn’

Link to press release: UK Energy Transition Outlook Shows 12-Point Gap on 2030 Climate Target Despite £1.5-2.1 Trillion Investment Pathway to 2060

Nearly all 2030 targets now unattainable despite historic coal phaseout; offshore wind deployment trails by 20% as government races to address grid bottlenecks and spiralling costs

By Staff, Wood Mackenzie, Feb 17, 2026

https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/uk-energy-transition-outlook-shows-12-point-gap-on-2030-climate-target-despite-1.5-2.1-trillion-investment-pathway-to-2060

From Homewood: Wood Mackenzie therefore suggest that we spend £45 billion to save £1.3 billion a year. You don’t need fancy computer models to tell you that is poor value for money! The value added would not even cover interest payments on the debt, never mind depreciation and operational costs.

£75 billion, I would remind people, is more than £2700 for every household in the country.

Germany Impaled by Climate Virtue

By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Feb 17, 2026

Germany Impaled by Climate Virtue

Link to: Germany’s Climate Policy Has Moved From Politics To The Courts… And The Economy Is Paying The Price

By Thomas Kolbe, Via Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, feb 17, 2026

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germanys-climate-policy-has-moved-politics-courts-and-economy-paying-price

Germany is the political engine of the Green Deal, yet it continues to fall short of its own CO₂ reduction targets. Now Germany’s Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig has ordered the federal government to tighten its climate targets by the end of March. The ruling follows a lawsuit filed by the German Environmental Aid (Deutsche Umwelthilfe), aimed explicitly at increasing political pressure. Germany is tightening the screws on its own catastrophe.

Germany’s “Energy Transition” Hits the Ice: LNG Crisis Exposes the Costs of Shunning Nuclear and Baseload Power

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 19, 2026

Germany’s “Energy Transition” Hits the Ice: LNG Crisis Exposes the Costs of Shunning Nuclear and Baseload Power

The recent incident in which “Germany’s largest LNG terminal … ran out of gas because the tanker got stuck, and the icebreaker broke down” is an apt metaphor for a system that was designed more for political signaling than for robust, weather-proof reliability.

Energy Issues – Australia

The NVES carbon tax on petrol cars is the perfect gift for China

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 19, 2026

https://joannenova.com.au/2026/02/the-nves-carbon-tax-on-petrol-cars-is-the-perfect-gift-for-china

From: the ABC

The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) requires car makers to meet emissions limits on the total cars they sell each year, incurring a $50 liability for every gram of CO2/km over that limit, which must be paid as a penalty or traded with greener car makers that accrued credits.

Energy Issues – Elsewhere non-US

India Builds a Fossil Future One Coal Plant at a Time

By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Feb 20, 2026

India Builds a Fossil Future One Coal Plant at a Time

Energy Issues — US

On the grid

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

On the grid

[US Grid] Operators have more tools than ever: demand response, emergency imports, market signaling, conservation messaging, and sophisticated forecasting. What they do not have – at least not in sufficient quantity – is inexpensive, fuel-secure generation that can run whenever it is needed, regardless of weather.” Which he illustrates not by referring to power sources that aren’t able to run when needed but to natural gas. Not because it isn’t reliable, but because with so many people relying on it, prices sometimes spike making it expensive just when it’s most needed. Whereas, Headley points out, this didn’t use to happen when coal played a major role in the power grid.

Can US grid handle next Winter Storm Fern – or major solar flares?

By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Feb 15, 2026

Can US grid handle next Winter Storm Fern – or major solar flares?

The real question: Will we learn lessons from Fern and heed warnings about the US grid and too-heavy reliance on wind, solar, battery and related (heavily Chinese) technologies in time for the next Big One?

Winter Storm Fern Proved Coal Is Still the Power Grid’s Reliable Backbone

By Emily Arthun, Real Clear Energy, Feb 16, 2026

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/02/16/winter_storm_fern_proved_coal_is_still_the_grids_reliable_backbone_1165141.html

Emily Arthun is current CEO of the American Coal Council,

January 2026 Winter Storm Impacts on New York Grid

By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Feb 18, 2026

January 2026 Winter Storm Impacts on New York Grid

I relied on two sources of New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) data for this analysis.  New York fuel-mix load data are available at the NYISO Real-Time Dashboard.  The second source of data is the Operations Performance Metrics Monthly Report prepared by the NYISO Operating Committee.

The New York entities responsible for the electric system all agree that a new category of generating resources called Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR) is necessary to keep the lights on during periods of extended low wind and solar resource availability. The observed eight consecutive days where wind and solar resource availability was less than 6% of the potential capacity is a perfect example of the conditions that necessitate this new resource.

[SEPP Comment: Waiting for DEFR?]

Texas Showdown: ERCOT vs Winter Storm Fern

By David Middleton, WUWT, Feb 17, 2026

Texas Showdown: ERCOT vs Winter Storm Fern

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck… Peak solar delivery occurred right when demand was bottoming out. When solar power works as intended, it totally disrupts the reliable components of the grid. Fortunately, it rarely works as intended. Just two days earlier, solar delivered almost nothing…

Legislators Should Set Policy, Not Intervene In Rate Cases

By Marc Brown, Real Clear Energy, Feb 13, 2026

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/02/13/legislators_should_set_policy_not_intervene_in_rate_cases_1164585.html

The Great Texas Blackout Revisited: Market Failure Not

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 19, 2026

The Great Texas Blackout Revisited: Market Failure Not

Ed. Note: Five years ago, Storm Uri caused Texas’s centrally planned wholesale electricity market (ERCOT) to buckle, vindicating warnings about the state’s wind/solar reliance. The mainstream media implicated natural gas instead, failing to explore the why behind the why. Rather than deregulation, Texas post-Uri has chosen to add wind, solar, and batteries, while subsidizing natural gas plants to counter intermittency. This duplicated grid is now driving rates up in a state that could have relied on surplus natural gas instead.

[SEPP Comment: Reliable energy is a necessity; prudent policies would ensure that necessities are funded. Unreliable energy is a luxury good. Too many politicians spend on the luxury goods and ignore the necessities.]

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Today’s selection– from Empty Vessel by Ian Kumekawa. The sudden expansion of Nigeria’s oil resources:

By Delanceyplace.com, Feb 17, 2026

https://us5.campaign-archive.com/?e=fe7987da67&u=6557fc90400ccd10e100a13f4&id=03d50b9381

Global Capital Is Buying U.S. LNG. Why Isn’t American Money Leading?

By Brigham McCown, Real Clear Energy, Feb 13, 2026

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/02/13/global_capital_is_buying_us_lng_why_isnt_american_money_leading_1164576.html

When foreign state-backed investors increase their ownership in U.S. energy infrastructure, markets should pay attention—not as a geopolitical signal, but as a capital decision. These are bets placed after underwriting risk, duration, and return have been assessed. American investors should be asking why others are moving first.

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Children of Chernobyl workers carry higher levels of DNA mutations, a new study shows

By Juliet La Sala, The Washington Times, Feb 16, 2027

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/feb/16/children-chernobyl-workers-carry-higher-levels-dna-mutations-new/?utm_source=Boomtrain&utm_medium=manual&utm_campaign=evening&utm_term=evening&utm_content=standard&bt_ee=aB%2FGEFdEF%2FOTY3lWOYeN6aqQ75cshLG9QwBJ7Shq7lo%3D&bt_ts=1771277433895

Link to paper: Evidence for a transgenerational mutational signature from ionizing radiation exposure in humans

By Fabian Brand, et al., Nature Scientific Reports, June 23, 2025

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-07030-5

From article: On average, children of cleanup workers had 2.65 clustered mutations per child, compared with 1.48 in the children of German military personnel and 0.88 in the control group.

America’s nuclear comeback is finally here

By Jason Isaac, The Hill, Feb 13, 2026

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5734747-americas-nuclear-comeback-is-finally-here

This renewed seriousness around nuclear mirrors a broader shift underway at the Department of Energy. Under Energy Secretary Chris Wright, federal energy policy is moving back toward engineering reality and away from political fantasy.

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Wind, Solar, and the Great Texas Blackout: Guilty as Charged

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 20, 2026

Wind, Solar, and the Great Texas Blackout: Guilty as Charged

Ed Note: The Great Texas Blackout five years ago, the worst energy debacle in US history, was misinterpreted as a ‘market failure’ by the mainstream press (and faux classical liberal Lynne Kiesling). This repost stands today as it was written three years ago.

Unreliable capacity that never should have been built crowded out the reliables—as intended by “magical thinking” policymakers. Storm Uri was not the straw that broke the camel’s back, it was the moment that showed the animal’s back was badly broken.

Wyoming Moves to Pull the Plug on Costly Pronghorn and Sidewinder Wind Projects

Good news for eagles, hawks, and other birds of the region.

By Leslie Eastman, Legal Insurrection, Feb 12, 2026

https://legalinsurrection.com/2026/02/wyoming-moves-to-pull-the-plug-on-costly-pronghorn-and-sidewinder-wind-projects

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Even auto giants know it: the electric car boom is out of charge

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 19, 2025

Even auto giants know it: the electric car boom is out of charge

“The Customer Has Spoken”: Car Industry Faces Up to Catastrophic EV Collapse

By Will Jones, the Daily Sceptic, Feb 19, 2026

https://dailysceptic.org/2026/02/19/the-customer-has-spoken-car-industry-faces-up-to-catastrophic-ev-collapse

Huge global EV U-turn as manufacturers ditch electric

Talk TV featuring Peter Cardwell and Maurice Cousins. Net Zero Watch, Feb 17, 2026

https://www.netzerowatch.com/videos/v/anpnyxlrm7nthbcjcc6bypm4h9yh77

Slow car to nowhere

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

Slow car to nowhere

Somehow people have great difficulty accepting that those holding political power are often incompetent as well as misguided. Perhaps it would be better if they were merely pursuing the wrong plans well, because then they could pivot and do something important right. But story after story underlines the opposite, including from Blacklock’s Reporter the sadly unsurprising news that:

“The Department of Environment spent more than 10 years and $1.4 million building a ‘net zero’ garage in Whitehorse that it neither needed nor finished, say auditors. The project was commissioned by then-Environment Minister Catherine McKenna as proof her department could ‘lead by example.’”

It is typical that the project would be about appearances not results. But also, that it would lead nowhere.

California Dreaming

California Importing Foreign Fuel After Running Refineries Out Of Town

By Audrey Streb, Daily Caller, Feb 16, 2026

https://dailycaller.com/2026/02/16/california-importing-foreign-fuel-refineries-leave-state-climate-tax

What Will California Gas Prices Do in 2026?

By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed Feb 18, 2026

https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7861446?e=cd9fa89d1e

To begin with, there are several components in the retail price of gasoline that are the same regardless of the source. They would include costs for CARB/LCFS (low carbon fuel standard) compliance, taxes and regulatory fees, “secondary distribution” (getting the gasoline from the refinery or terminal to the actual gas stations), and the retail station’s profit margin. Altogether these four costs contribute about $2.00 to the price per gallon of gasoline in California.

Health, Energy, and Climate

DC Water provides updates 1 month after massive sewage spill into Potomac

By Mariel Carbone, The Hill, Feb 18, 2026

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5743248-dc-water-potomac-river-spill-maryland-virginia

Following the collapse, several additional overflows occurred. In all, DC Water estimated 243 million gallons of sewage spilled into the Potomac River.

Currently, a bypass system is in place that directs the sewage around the broken pipe, into the C&O Canal and then back into the pipe.

At this point, the exact cause of the break has not been determined.

Environmental Industry

Astroturf Alert: $2 Billion in Foreign Cash Behind America’s “Grassroots” Climate Movement?

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Feb 19, 2026

Astroturf Alert: $2 Billion in Foreign Cash Behind America’s “Grassroots” Climate Movement?

Link to letter to: Pamela Bondi AG of the US and John Eisenberg asst AG for National Security

From 19 State AGs lead by AG of Montana, Feb 12, 2026

Click to access 2026-02-12%20AGs’%20Letter%20to%20DOJ%20re%20APT%20Report.pdf

Conclusion of letter:

For the foregoing reasons, we respectfully submit there is substantial evidence that many of the over 150 U.S.-based organizations that collectively have received nearly $2 billion from five foreign-registered charities are acting as unregistered agents of foreign principals by engaging in coordinated funding and advocacy efforts to influence U.S. energy policy and undermine American energy independence. Nor does it appear that the nonprofit organizations’ activities would be covered by any of FARA’s exemptions.

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

University of Maryland Toots Out a Beauty: Smart Underwear Measures Your Farts

By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Feb 12, 2026

https://www.acsh.org/news/2026/02/12/university-maryland-toots-out-beauty-smart-underwear-measures-your-farts-49967

Link to paper: Smart underwear: A novel wearable for long-term monitoring of gut microbial gas production via flatus

By Santiago Botasini, et al., Biosensors and Bioelectronics: X, December 2025

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590137025001268?via%3Dihub

Mad Miliband plots solar farms in space

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 19, 2025

Mad Miliband plots solar farms in space

In other words, they want to waste billions of pounds on a project that probably won’t even work, that will, if it does work, provide electricity at a much higher cost and be vulnerable to attack. All in the hope that, when the technology matures, it might cost the same as nuclear power!

Models Gone Wild: The Ionosphere Triggers Earthquakes?

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 16, 2026

Models Gone Wild: The Ionosphere Triggers Earthquakes?

Link to paper: Possible mechanism of ionospheric anomalies to trigger earthquakes – Electrostatic coupling between the ionosphere and the crust and the resulting electric forces acting within the crust

By Akira Mizuno, Minghui Kao, and Ken Umeno, International Journal of Plasma Environmental Science and Technology, Accessed Feb 19, 2026

https://ijpest.com/Contents/20/1/e01003.html

The hidden impact of polluted snow

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 16, 2026

The hidden impact of polluted snow

From Eurekalert:

As Canada experiences record snowfall, new research from the University of Waterloo suggests that tiny amounts of industrial pollution trapped in snow can change how sunlight reaches the ground below and significantly alter fragile environments.

Stop stopping climate change

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 18, 2026

Stop stopping climate change

If you’re the sort of person who prefers AI to human thought, we did a search for “stop climate change” and the Google “AI Overview” chirped:

“Stopping climate change requires urgent, systemic, and individual action to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, primarily by eliminating fossil fuel reliance and embracing renewable energy. Key actions include transitioning to wind and solar power, improving energy efficiency, switching to electric vehicles, and reducing meat consumption.”

ARTICLES

1. EPA May Correct a Supreme Court Error

Will the justices reconsider their finding that Congress authorized the agency to regulate greenhouse gases?

By Chris Horner, WSJ, Feb. 18, 2026

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/epa-may-correct-a-supreme-court-error-de193644?mod=business_trendingnow_opn_pos4

TWTW Summary: The Washington based attorney states that after the 2009 Endangerment Finding a myriad of rules followed [Italics in article replace by boldface]:

“One of these rules, the Clean Power Plan, regulated electric utilities’ greenhouse-gas emissions in a way that would force coal-fired plants to close. The Supreme Court rejected that rule in West Virginia v. EPA (2022) on grounds that agency actions of such ‘economic and political significance’ require ‘clear congressional authorization.’ It held there is no evidence that Congress gave the EPA the power of ‘deciding how Americans get their energy.’

That didn’t address the endangerment finding, and President Biden’s regulators were undeterred, promptly resuming the plant-closure approach with a replacement rule. The current EPA has proposed repealing that, too.

And so it will go on, barring reversal of Massachusetts [v. EPA (2007)]: Endangerment findings will return and perpetuate a cycle of regulatory rescission and reimposition, whether driven by the next Democratic administration or by order of the lower courts.

But last week’s EPA action struck at the heart of Massachusetts. The ruling allows the agency to find no endangerment exists, but this rescission avoids arguing the science or challenging particulars of the 2009 finding. The EPA instead takes the position that the endangerment finding was improper because Congress never clearly authorized EPA to regulate greenhouse gases as pollutants. The endangerment finding and all subsequent regulation reflect a ‘profound misreading of’ Massachusetts, according to the EPA.

But in Massachusetts, the court said, ‘There is no reason, much less a compelling reason, to accept EPA’s invitation to read ambiguity into a clear statute,’ and that ‘greenhouse gases fit well within the Clean Air Act’s capacious definition of ‘air pollutant.’ ‘ The lower courts won’t be able to brush those assertions aside.

Dissenting in Massachusetts, Justice Antonin Scalia wrote that from the court’s reasoning, ‘it follows that everything airborne, from Frisbees to flatulence, qualifies as an ‘air pollutant.’ This reading of the statute defies common sense.’ Nonetheless, that is how EPA applied the opinion for nearly two decades.

Now the agency says this was a mistake—on its part, not the high court’s. The D.C. Circuit will most likely conclude that the EPA’s repeal of the endangerment finding is impermissible under Massachusetts. The EPA will then ask the Supreme Court to clarify—or overturn—its holding that Congress gave the EPA the authority to regulate greenhouse gases. Notably, all five justices in the Massachusetts majority have left the bench, while three of the dissenting justices remain on the bench.

The EPA’s approach in rescinding the endangerment finding presents the court with an opportunity to end the climate-regulation carousel that it created. This is likely to proceed quickly. It is typical of the Trump approach to overturning precedents: Stake out an aggressive legal position, lose in the lower courts, and change those rulings with lightning speed.”

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