Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
A while back I gave up looking at COVID stats because there was so much misinformation out there. Now, however, the CDC has published data on total deaths and deaths by category, and there are some interesting things to see. Unfortunately, due to delays in reporting, the data only goes up to July 2021. Here’s the first one.
Figure 1. Deaths by age, both with COVID as the underlying cause on the death certificate and those with COVID plus other causes.
I see lots of folks saying that school kids should be vaccinated … but there have only been 155 deaths of kids under 15, and the overwhelming majority of those had serious co-morbidities.
Next, here are total deaths from all causes since 2019.
Figure 2. US deaths, all causes, January 2019 to July 2021
As you can see, clearly there are “excess” deaths in 2020 and 2021. Figure 3 shows how the “excess deaths” compare to 2019.
Figure 3. Percentage change in “all-cause” US deaths, 2020-2022 compared to 2019.
Of interest is the fact that deaths among people over 65 or so are basically back to pre-pandemic levels …
Next, here are the totals of excess deaths and deaths with and from COVID.
Figure 4. Excess deaths and COVID deaths, January 2020 to July 2021
It is my assumption that the excess deaths that were not caused by COVID were caused by the lockdowns—suicides and postponed medical procedures.
A final oddity is “Natural” deaths. Note that “Natural” is not a cause of death, like say COVID, heart attacks, or cancer. Instead, it is a manner of death. The possible manners of death are Natural, Homicide, Accident, Pending Investigation, and Suicide. Figure 5 shows the changes in the “Natural” manner of death compared to 2019.
Figure 5. Percentage change in “Natural” US deaths, 2020-2022 compared to 2019.
Most curious. “Natural” deaths are up in those from 15 to 45 years or so, but are flat or even down in older people. I fear I have no explanation for that. I doubt that it is from the vaccine, since those deaths seem to be mostly from things like myocarditis and pericarditis that are heart-related, and here’s the percentage change in heart disease.
Figure 6. Percentage change in heart disease US deaths, 2020-2022 compared to 2019.
Note that recently, heart disease is generally down in the 15-45-year-old age groups with increased “Natural” deaths …
As always, more questions than answers …
My very best regards to all,
w.
My Customary Request: When you comment PLEASE quote the exact words you are discussing, so we all can be clear just who and what you are talking about.
The Data: These numbers are from the CDC, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, available here. Do I trust them? Not particularly, the CDC has hardly been a beacon of probity in all of this … but they’re the best I can find.
A Final Note: I am neither pro- nor anti-vax. However, I am wholly and completely opposed to all mandates and passports.
The logic of those pushing for mandates and passports runs like this:
The protected need protection from the unprotected, so we need to pressure and force the unprotected to get the protection that isn’t protecting the protected …
Gotta say … that makes no sense to me at all.
I say everyone needs to balance their own personal risk from COVID (real) against their risk from the so-called “vaccine” (also real). Me, I live with my gorgeous ex-fiancee, my daughter, my son-in-law, my 2-1/2 year old granddaughter, and my 2-1/2 month old grandson. At 74 I’m in my middle youth, so high risk. I’ve had two seizures and a heart attack. My gorgeous ex-fiancee is a Family Nurse Practitioner who works with patients, some of whom likely have or have had COVID.
So it was an easy choice, that good lady and I are both vaccinated and boosted … but that’s us. You need to balance and choose for yourself.
Again, where is the climate angle in this?
Please relabel this site ‘most viewed on climate change and conspiracy theory’.
Griff
was is the climate angle on any of the BS you peddle? All you peddle is propaganda and slander.
Again, griff proves incapable of basic reading comprehension, having had this pointed out previously:
About Watts Up With That? News and commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts
Griff, this site has ALWAYS been about far more than just the climate.
Only a few subjects are not covered here—per the site policy those are religion, discussions of barycentrism, astrology, aliens, bigfoot, chemtrails, 911 Truthers, Obama’s Birth Certificate, HAARP, UFO’s, Electric Universe, mysticism, pressure gradient predicts all planetary atmospheric temperature, and Principia/Slaying the Sky Dragon aka “Magic Gas”.
Surely, given how long as you’ve been bothering people here, you must have noticed that it’s not all about climate?
Heck, just under the tag “Coronavirus” there are no less than TWO HUNDRED AND SIXTY THREE PREVIOUS POSTS … and on the 264th post on the same subject, you suddenly want to complain?
Wake up and smell the coffee.
w.
Don’t you just love it when people decided what should and should not be discussed in blog comments. Guess they know best eh?
Note the negative excess deaths in 0 to 4 years- as someone pointed out during 2020, this fall correlates with the reduction in childhood vaccinations as parents avoid taking their children to places the consider dangerous, or could not take them due to lockdowns.
Odd that (not).
Most curious. “Natural” deaths are up in those from 15 to 45 years or so, but are flat or even down in older people. I fear I have no explanation for that. I doubt that it is from the vaccine, since those deaths seem to be mostly from things like myocarditis and pericarditis that are heart-related,
=========not curious at all Willis the death rates from heart diseases as listed, ARE vax related according to many, especially males from 18 to 40ish
Insurance companies are also picking up a LOT of younger deaths too. Ive dropped a couple of those reports into the tips file recently.
as are deaths and heart issues in young fit sportspeople mainly in EU but elsewhere too hitting the hundreds reported
Two questions: Are they saying “natural” for the young to avoid blaming the injection?
Are they saying “covid” for the older people to collect more money from the gov?
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cdc-signals-changes-covid-vaccine-schedule-part-address-heart-inflammation
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Feb. 4 outlined an expected change to the COVID-19 vaccine schedule for people with weak immune systems and signaled that a different alteration is coming for the general population to try to cut the number of post-vaccination heart inflammation cases.
Israeli researchers have discovered a shocking revelation!
Vitamin D could be a piece of COVID-19’s ‘complex puzzle,’ Israeli scientists say, after a new study finds a link between deficiency and severe illness (msn.com)
Per the article:
“… less than 10% of people who had sufficient levels of the vitamin (‘D’) in their blood” developed severe illness.
AND
“The research doesn’t prove that vitamin D protects against COVID-19 and isn’t a green light to avoid vaccines and take vitamins instead. Vaccines cut the risk of Omicron hospitalization, particularly after a booster, by up to 90%, the UK Health Security Agency said.”
So, vaccines/boosters cut risk by UP TO 90%, while adequate ‘D’ hormone levels result in LESS THAN 10% of people developing severe illness.
(the logical outcome of this, per the UK Health Security Agency, is that vaccines are the best route to follow???)
“It is my assumption that the excess deaths that were not caused by COVID were caused by the lockdowns—suicides and postponed medical procedures”
I think you could test this: look at the geographic and temporal pattern of excess deaths, and compare those to the locations & times with the most stringent lockdowns.
(and suicides, at least, should be tracked separately, so you could assess those)
Willis
Here is a dump of data worthy of your talent. It regards vaccine adverse effects and injury. The VAERS data are of similar scope.
Below are summarized 2021 (+ vaccine) numbers % change relative to 2020 (- vaccine)
Regarding the Defense Medical Epidemiological Database Data Dump (substack.com)
In the UK here. I have written to the PM, to the Health Minister, to the Covid Minister to my MP regarding the unprecedented damage done by these jabs.
Not one reply.
I have also pointed out to the BBC that not once have they mentioned this either. Response, five links, all about how safe the vaccines are. So I sent them the VAERS, MHRA and EUDRA counts some two weeks ago.
Still awaiting a response.
Also wrote to the Equalities and Human Rights Commission noting that as the jabs don’t stop you getting Covid OR infecting others, vaccine passports are ipso facto discriminatory.
Still awaiting a response.
The whole of our public sector is loathe to abandon Covid, even tho’ it’s over
Welcome to the future. When people say to us “say safe”, we respond, “Better, stay free”
Are increased 2021 deaths due to “broken hearts”? By forced separations and isolation?
UK
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/19/lockdown-may-cost-200k-lives-government-report-shows/
More than died “with Covid” and MASSIVELY more than the <7k who died FROM Covid, Feb 2020 to Dec 2021 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathsandautopsiesfeb2020todec2021)
“More than 200,000 people could die from the impact of lockdown and protecting the NHS, an official government report shows.
As national restrictions were imposed, experts from the Department of Health, the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the government’s Actuary Department and the Home Office forecast the collateral damage from delays to healthcare and the effects of recession arising from the pandemic response.”
Individual risk assessment has been the forgotten element in the COVID nightmare. Clearly aged and comorbid people benefit from the vaccines. However non-clinical interventions were equally off not more important and you will notice none of our illuminated at CDC or NIH mentioned any of them save for the two mythical symbols: wear a mask and stand 6 feet apart. To be clear fluid dynamic analysis those that sneezing of coughing with a mask on creates micro droplets that project of to 26 feet. the renders both of the advocated strategies completely useless.
Willis Thanks.
Compare the latest official Scottish data showing the Covid19 865.79 rate/100,000 (Twice as high) among the 2 dose vaxxed compared to the 412.77 rate/100,000 among the unvaxxed.
https://americanfaith.com/covid-case-rate-highest-among-two-dose-vaxxed-lowest-among-unvaxxed-public-health-scotland/
Great vaccine eh? Still, megabonuses all round for Pfeizer and co…
So even though the heart issues may be attached to the jab and it is looking more like a reality everyday you still decided to get the jab. I don’t get it. It is now out of the bag stay far away from the needle at all costs, the real numbers don’t lie.
@Willis Eschenbach The Economist has been writing about excess deaths since the pandemic began. They have documented their methodology and their model is on GitHub. You might find it interesting.
Here is some links:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality
Seems to me from this CDC data set that C-19 was only 4.7% of ALL deaths between 1/20 and 1/22 while ordinary influenza was 0.1%. That would move C-19 way down in the rankings.
Hmmm. seems too good to be true.
Willis, two big problems.
First: Figure 4- The number listed as “deaths from Covid” is 5.5% of the total from “deaths with Covid”. This fact has been known for well over a year https://archive.is/gMIaQ. So your graph is wrong.
Second: your graph source https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/AH-Monthly-Provisional-Counts-of-Death-by-Age-Gro/ezfr-g6hr doesn’t exist.
Ruleo, thanks for the note about the graph source. However, it seems you’ve copied it wrong … the last letter is “f”, not “r”.
And regarding my graph, it says exactly what the CDC says — “COVID as underlying cause”, and “COVID plus other causes”. It is NOT the split in the data given by your link, nor does it purport to be.
w.
Heard on the radio this evening that the US government is diving back into all recorded Covid deaths of the past two years. Speculation is that if they now remove all “with” Covid deaths from the official record, some credibility of President Biden’s election claim that he would shut down the virus will be restored. The federal debt is not large enough yet…
roaddog, that differs slightly from what I was reading: CDC is changing the reporting requirements, asking hospitals to separate “checked in specifically for covid” vs. “checked in for something else and then tested positive for covid”
The reason seems obvious.
Willis,
It seems to me that there are a number of things to consider when thinking about these data. One is the potential for a reduction in deaths due to influenza due to the mitigations taken to reduce covid cases. This might explain a reduced mortality in children, for instance, as well as that seen in older people in the first months of 2021.
Of course, there are the vaccinations to take into account, which seem to have had a dramatic effect on mortality in the elderly.
Regarding excess deaths, two other potential contributors could be overdoses and car crashes. Those are just guesses, based on what I’ve heard. It seems to me the total excess deaths might be more meaningful if compared to an average across years (as the CDC does), rather than a single year.
Regarding the heart disease chart, I’m guessing that some of the trends could be related to the flu, covid, vaccines, mitigation, and their interactions. In many cases, deaths from heart disease were likely related to covid. Both would be seen on death certificates, but when plotting the CDC data, it might not be obvious that they are related.
Anyway, there are a few things to think about.
Then there’s, “The protected need protection from the unprotected, so we need to pressure and force the unprotected to get the protection that isn’t protecting the protected …”
I will give you my thoughts.
There are a few ways to look at this. One is the idea that people like me care about all Americans and their health. I don’t want to hear about people dying preventable deaths. It makes me sad, as well as frustrated that there is so much misunderstanding out there about the risks of vaccination and covid.
Another is the idea that the more people who are vaccinated and practice mitigation, the lower the cases and transmission rates, making everybody safer. Because of exponential spread, even a drop of 10% in the average number an infected person spreads it to others can make a difference.
Then there’s the fact that this is not just about mortality, which many people like to reduce it to. Illness means loss of productivity, sometimes loss of income, potential for long-term effects, strain on the health care system (and the financial costs that are shared by others), and a multitude of economic effects. Ascribing mental health effects to lockdowns alone does not take into account the stress of seeing loved ones die, worrying about illness, or general strain of seeing our nation even more divided because a public health issue has become political.
It seems like “freedon” has come to mean the abdication of responsibility to society as a whole. Whether to practice mitigation is not just about one’s own health, it’s about that of others, too, and in the end it affects all of us through our economy. If more people voluntarily got vaccinated and wore mask, rather than fighting for their version of “freedom,” mandates would not be an issue.
Anyway, I hope this might help you make more sense of the quote you posted. Of course, it’s just my own views.
Flu is the amazing disappearing virus. Or so we’re to believe.
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“Flu Has Disappeared for More Than a Year: Mask wearing, social distancing and other steps to stop COVID-19 have also curtailed influenza”, By Katie Peek on April 29, 2021″
Scientific American in full rictus grin trying to support the government line about no more flu. Hell, why test for a disease if there’s no money to be had in diagnosing or treating it?
Influenza is a disease so common in the U.S. that it is the subject of massive prophylactic “March of Dimes” ad spending. Yet it still killed 34,000 Americans in 2018, 30,000 in 2020, and between 10 and 20 thousand most other years. During the 2020-2021 season? Around 700.
I’m guessing, but it’s not hard to imagine that even when flu or other upper respiratory infections show up in a hospital ER, a declaration of COVID isn’t far behind.
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act, CARES, relegated 2.2 trillion to all things related to Covid. Trump’s package was the largest economic stimulus package ever introduced in U.S. history, representing 10% of GDP in 2020. Biden added another 1.9 trillion in “Covid relief” to that sum with his American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. The medical establishment in the US follows the money. And its patients really have little choice but to trail along behind.
My opinion is that doctors should be on a flat salary. Patients would pay an annual fee plus additional costs for specific treatments – prices laid out transparently in a menu. I suppose there still would be incentives to deliberately misdiagnose, overtreat or overbill, but cutting both government and private insurance companies out of the equation would be a positive revolution in health care. My 2 cents.
Your last paragraph tells the tale about the reason for so much strife and civil unrest. That is the way it should have been and not the way it was or is.
And for that reason I believe that I have seen the greatest crime against humanity in my 66 years.
Does that data reveal why influenza mortality dropped to near zero in 2020, 2021?
As for ““Natural” deaths are up in those from 15 to 45 years or so, but are flat or even down in older people.”: I see people having a lower rate of getting older, from having a higher rate of dying young.
As for distinguishing “deaths from COVID” (with COVID being the only killer on the death certificate) from “deaths with COVID” (death certificates naming more than one cause of death including COVID), most of the latter would have survived COVID if not for having medical conditions that lots of people have, such as diabetes, overweightness/obesity, high blood pressure, getting weakened by cancer, and for that matter congestive heart failure (usually survivable for multiple years unless the person gets killed by being more vulnerable to something else such as COVID). Hundreds of thousands of Americans with these common medical conditions have died years before they would have from those causes alone because of COVID. I wish the Republican Party would act as if they realize that most of these people would be voting Republican if they were still alive.
As for ““Natural” deaths are up in those from 15 to 45 years or so, but are flat or even down in older people. I fear I have no explanation for that. I doubt that it is from the vaccine, since those deaths seem to be mostly from things like myocarditis and pericarditis that are heart-related, and here’s the percentage change in heart disease.” Most heart disease deaths are not from the kinds of heart disease that vaccines hardly ever cause, but from coronary artery disease. I see possible explanation of decrease of deaths from heart disease being increase of deaths from delaying treatment for cancer, and from COVID.
As for “Note that recently, heart disease is generally down in the 15-45-year-old age groups with increased “Natural” deaths …”: The 15-45 age group has a low death rate from all natural causes. And, their youth protects them less from COVID than from heart disease (despite youthful age having some protective effect against COVID), and delayed treatment of cancer is an issue.
When no one could imagine how it would get even dumber:
Now they admit it’s a DRUG.
COVID restrictions and lockdowns cold turkey, anyone?
Source: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/lifting-restrictions-could-cause-anxiety-for-many-as-unknowns-persist-experts-1.5774880