Winter Will not Loosen Its grip Anytime Soon in the Eastern US

Weekend weather pattern at 500 mb may be quite volatile for the eastern US with a deep trough aloft and strong ridging across the west coast of Canada and the North Atlantic. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

…very cold and active pattern next couple of weeks to include a weekend storm threat*

Meteorologist Paul Dorian

Overview

Winter will not loosen its grip anytime soon in the eastern US as it appears a very cold weather pattern will continue through at least the remainder of the month.  In addition, the overall pattern looks to be quite active as well with multiple storm threats possible and perhaps one by the early part of the upcoming weekend.

Colder-than-normal conditions will dominate in the eastern half of the nation during the 5-day period from January 22 – January 27 (days 6-10). Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Cold, stormy pattern

After a very mild month of December in much of the eastern US, the first half of January has been quite a different story with normal-to-slightly below-normal temperatures.  The second half of the month is looking quite a bit colder-than-normal and it may even include some extreme cold next week when temperatures could fall far below-normal for late January in portions of the northeastern states. During December, there was certainly some cold air masses around in North America, but they were generally bottled up across northwestern Canada and Alaska without a mechanism to transport them into the northern US.

Colder-than-normal conditions will dominate in the eastern half of the nation during the 5-day period from January 27 – February 01 (days 11-15). Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

The overall upper air pattern, however, changed notably in the early part of this month to allow for the transport of cold air masses from northwest Canada into the central and eastern US. Specifically, a strong ridge of high pressure intensified and extended northward along the west coast of Canada and Alaska creating a strong northwest flow of air just to its east of the ridge axis.  It looks like this strong ridge will be quite persistent during the next couple of weeks.

Two teleconnection indices that support the idea of the western Canadian ridge holding its ground in coming days include the EPO (in negative territory) and the PNA (in a positive phase). Data courtesy ECMWF (EPO), Weather Bell Analytics (EPO), NOAA (PNA)

Two teleconnection indices that support the idea of this western ridge holding its ground and producing a cold overall pattern in the eastern US are known to meteorologists as the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA).  When the EPO is consistently in a negative phase and the PNA is in a sustained positive phase during the winter season, a strong ridge of high pressure typically forms over the northeastern part of the Pacific Ocean and Alaska. This is indeed the likelihood for these teleconnection indices during the next couple of weeks as depicted by many recent computer forecast model runs.  If, in fact, the western ridge can expand far enough to the north, it can result in a “cross-polar” flow of air that can bring Siberian air masses across the North Pole and ultimately into the central and eastern US – not out of the question with this type of pattern over the next couple of weeks.

The next cold air outbreak to reach the eastern states on Thursday could be preceded by some snow as a wave forms along the cold frontal boundary zone. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

The next outbreak of cold air that reaches the eastern states will arrive on Thursday and it can be preceded by a period snow in parts as a wave of low pressure forms along the incoming frontal boundary zone.  Temperatures are likely to get progressively colder between Thursday and Friday with very cold conditions in place by week’s end.  Another cold air blast is destined to arrive into the eastern US early next week and this one may feature some extreme cold; especially, across the northeastern states.   

A storm threat exists for the early part of the upcoming weekend in parts of the eastern US with a strong upper-level wave of energy depicted here by the 12Z Euro for early Saturday morning. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

In addition to the cold, it looks like the overall pattern will be quite active during the next couple of weeks in the eastern US with multiple storm threats on the table.  The two aforementioned upper-level ridges will be joined by a recurring upper-level trough over the eastern states which is likely to deepen appreciably this weekend. Another trough will likely form in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean in coming days and this is usually correlated well with an eastern US trough.  By the upcoming weekend, all of these pieces will be getting into place and indeed this can result in a storm system (or two) in the eastern states anywhere in the late Friday-to-Sunday time period.  Any storm that does form this weekend is likely to be followed by some very cold air early next week and additional cold air outbreaks are sure to follow.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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Alan Robertson
January 17, 2022 10:16 pm

Yep. It’s Winter, all right.

Sara
Reply to  Alan Robertson
January 18, 2022 5:03 am

Yes, it is. I have snow in my yards as proof of that. And the birds are showing up like the moochers they are: chickadees, sparrows, house finches, cardinals, and the occasional red-bellied woodpecker. It is definitely winter, and this is one time I wish my house had a fireplace.

Lil-Mike
Reply to  Sara
January 18, 2022 10:09 am

Why pray tell, in a cold climate, would you not heat with a wood stove or fireplace?

I grew up in a home with neither a fire place nor wood stove. Here is what I discovered about having a wood-source for heat. You never yell at your kids. When I was young, if I left the door open too long, the roar which my father emitted would rock the universe … he is 6’7″, and could really let out a bellow. What the young me didn’t realize, was that some large amount of heat was escaping the home, the heater kicked on, and dad could see the digits of the price on the utilities bill rolling like the old fashioned digits on the gas pump, rolling up the cost. Only later did I realize that cost could be high … perhaps that cost could exceed the balance in the cheque book … what then?

Only after I too had a son, who left the door open, exchanging the cheery warmth of the house with the frigid black draughts of the greater universe … when I didn’t hear the heater click on, when my mind’s eye didn’t see the utilities bill racking up some ungodly charges … when I looked over to the stack of wood next to the stove, when I stepped out to fetch another wheel barrow load of wood from the woodshed did it occur to me that heating with wood is the way to go. I’m not going to yell at my kid over an armload of wood, I can gauge just how much labor it costs to replace that heat, its something I can fulfill within a few minutes of my time, perhaps the exercise is good for me too. Fetching some wood isn’t going to break my back, it certainly isn’t going to break the bank.

This is what I have found about living in the country. The world comes to me on my terms. I don’t fret over the heating bill, there is none. I have stocked enough wood for the winter, I know exactly what it takes to make the house comfortable. There is no potential fright coming from the utility company. The world comes to me on my terms.

Sara
Reply to  Lil-Mike
January 18, 2022 4:26 pm

Oh, “no fireplace” is nothing intentional. It’s a small but cozy house, and if I want to go to the trouble and expense, I could add a gas-fired fireplace to the living room, but the house is small enough and well-insulated enough that the cold does not do a thing to the warmth inside. Good insulation for rooftop, walls and floors also makes a difference.

A fireplace used to be built automatically, until they went “out of style” with furnaces and air conditioners, but now they’re back to give houses “status”, whatever that is.

Were I to build a cozy little cottage, however, the fireplace would be in the keeping room next to the kitchen, and another in the living room. And maybe a coal or wood-fired parlor stove or two, as well. Practicalities do matter.

Michael S. Kelly
Reply to  Sara
January 20, 2022 1:50 pm

Our house has propane central heating for the basement and first floor, and an electric heat pump for the second floor. In addition, we have wood burning fireplaces in the basement and first floor. Both are equipped with inserts containing fans to blow heated air into the rooms.

We were initially captive to the propane company that owned the tank, but learned that we could buy the tank from them and get propane on a competitive basis. It cur our price by hundreds of dollars per fill. We also order two cords of wood a year from a guy who always delivers 50% more than we order. It cuts our propane consumption down significantly, and costs roughly 1/4 as much as a fill of propane.

ldd
Reply to  Lil-Mike
January 18, 2022 6:47 pm

As well, we now heat with wood, one winter we ran out of wood for a month; the electric heating bill was enough to make sure we’ve never ran out of wood again. 🙂 Keeps us moving for sure. Hubby says, Wood heats you up at least two times. 1: Throwing/stacking it in and 2: when you burn it. I love country living and invested in the big green garden tent – works like a charm when we get the long cold spells in spring/early summers of late.

Ray
Reply to  ldd
January 19, 2022 11:31 am

Hubby says, Wood heats you up at least two times. 1: Throwing/stacking it in and 2: when you burn it.
I have taken to calling my firewood LIFT WOOD. I only burn it once, but I lift it 11 times between the forest floor and when I take the ashes outside.
1) Off of the ground and into the trailer.
2) Out of the trailer into the pile
3) Out of the pile and onto the splitter
4) From the splitter to the to be stacked pile.
5) From the to be stacked pile into the cart
6) From the cart to the stacked wood pile
7) From the stacked pile back into the cart
8) From the cart into the wood door
9) From the floor to the wood pile next to the stove
10) From the pile next to the stove and into the stove
11) From the ash bin into the pile in the back yard

ldd
Reply to  Ray
January 19, 2022 1:41 pm

Plus you save on a gym membership while breathing fresh air, keeps you feeling better in my opinion.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Lil-Mike
January 18, 2022 8:06 pm

Notes from the Overground (2018)

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/03/01/british-snow-chaos-running-out-of-gas/comment-page-1/#comment-2755770

To everyone with natural gas or oil-fired central heating that is run by electricity:

If you live in a cold climate, buy a Honda generator large enough to power your furnace, fridge and other basic needs and learn how to quickly set it up. Chain it down outside, because in a major power failure it will develop legs and walk away.

Another good plan is to install a good wood stove and a store of dry firewood. My family experienced a long-term power failure in the Great Ice Storm of 1998 and my dad’s wood stove rescued the entire neighborhood.

Last edited 4 months ago by Allan MacRae
meiggs
Reply to  Sara
January 18, 2022 4:31 pm

Mine does, burning half to a full wheel barrow load every night since late Oct. Spring came late and we planted late…probably be burning into May again this year…saving the planet one dead tree at a time…

billtoo
January 17, 2022 10:39 pm

but no worries. great lakes ice coverage will still be below average

Derg
Reply to  billtoo
January 18, 2022 12:50 am

And we will never know what snow is 🤓

DD More
Reply to  billtoo
January 18, 2022 8:35 am

And for any that have lived in the areas south and east of the Lakes, know that Lake Effect Snow is on the way.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  DD More
January 18, 2022 10:27 am

Ask the guys in Buffalo, 20′ at a time. Pretty sure they would prefer to have the lake freeze over early than late. Cold is easier to manage than twice weekly lake effect snow dumps

Peta of Newark
January 17, 2022 11:16 pm

Innit funny how all that cold only affects the land and not the ocean.

Maybe if the land contained ‘a bit more water‘ all that cold might be less severe or not even happen at all

Get my drift?
Do not create deserts – thereby increasing the Lapse rate, thinning the Troposphere and thus inviting the Stratosphere down to see you

The Stratosphere is A Very Cold Thing that does not take prisoners. Strenuous efforts must be made at all times to keep as far away from it as possible

There, I said it without using The Actual Words

MarkW
Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 18, 2022 7:54 am

Nonsense is nonsense no matter what words you use to describe it.

meab
Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 18, 2022 10:02 am

Peta,

Convection of the stratosphere across the tropopause and the lapse rate have nothing to do with the location of the deserts. NOTHING.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JD022633

If you had spent just 2 minutes doing actual research, you could have found compelling evidence that your nutrient-free soil “theory” is bunk. You could have dispelled your irrational fixation and stopped yourself from perseverating on this nonsense. Why do you resist doing a few minutes of actually looking stuff up? Is it because you don’t want to leave delusion land?

I had sincerely hoped that you were getting better – I even up-voted several of your recent comments – but, alas, those hopes were shattered.

Allan MacRae
January 17, 2022 11:54 pm

Yup – as predicted.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/03/californias-sierra-nevada-sets-all-time-december-snow-record/#comment-3424429
 
The killer global cold will come in January and especially February 2022 – locked in by the cold Nino34 SST in October 2021. Nino34SST leads UAHLTglobal by ~4 months.
 
The difficult-to-predict southward descents of the Polar Vortex will decide who lives and who dies. I am particularly concerned about the UK and Germany, two old enemies joined in their struggle for winter survival, their vital energy systems sabotaged by toxic green-energy false propaganda. Lenin and Goebbels would be proud – their lessons of false propaganda have been well-learned by their modern pseudo-green acolytes.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
January 18, 2022 3:44 am

I made this prediction in November 2021 at:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/11/23/alaska-suffering-through-some-intense-cold-and-there-is-no-relief-coming-anytime-soon/#comment-3395777
[excerpt]
La Nina looks locked-in, so prepare for extreme cold in late January and February.

Ed Zuiderwijk
January 18, 2022 12:23 am

But, but, 2022 is already on course to be the hottest year evah. Brrrrr.

gringojay
January 18, 2022 12:34 am

Fortunately east coast American truck drivers who haven’t accepted getting the CoVid jab can just hang out at home since they won’t be allowed to enter Canada in their loaded rigs.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  gringojay
January 18, 2022 2:43 am

I wrote a friend:
“I am concerned about supply chains.”
Caution: Language. But he’s smarter than the average politician – and vastly smarter than the average leftist.
STARVING US OUT – CANADIAN TRUCK DRIVER WITH PERTINENT INFO. STOCK UP IF YOU HAVEN’T STARTED ALREADY
https://www.bitchute.com/video/jZpn97UCN1NW/
 
My friend commented:
“Interestingly the disruption of supply chains was predicted back in October 2020 for the 3rd quarter of 2021 by the Strategic Planning Committee. So the Great Reset is a little behind schedule.”
 
I replied:
“Store shelves have been getting bare since about 4Q2021.
Trudeau’s a notorious slacker – not surprising he’s behind schedule.”

Allan MacRae
Reply to  gringojay
January 18, 2022 2:49 am

Told you so, years ago.

THE LIBERALS’ COVERT GREEN PLAN FOR CANADA – POVERTY AND DICTATORSHIP October 1, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/01/the-liberals-covert-green-plan-for-canada-poverty-and-dictatorship/
 

Pat Frank
Reply to  Allan MacRae
January 18, 2022 10:37 am

So, Allan, hot war or no?

meiggs
Reply to  Pat Frank
January 18, 2022 4:41 pm

No need, engineered virus will take out the trash.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  meiggs
January 18, 2022 9:37 pm

Re your comment:
“No need, engineered virus will take out the trash..”

I believe that we will continue to see many Covid-“vaccine”-caused deaths and injuries for years to come, but I do not view this as a benefit as you apparently do. I have fought for two years to end the harmful Covid lockdowns, and for one year to end the deadly “vaccines”.

In summary, I have failed, the damage has been done, and many more millions will suffer and die. This is not a cause for celebration, it is a cause for mourning, imo.

Taking the “vaccines” and even injecting one’s children, leading to death or serious injury, is a high price to pay for being stupid or uninformed. Darwin Awards all around. A tragedy. The horror!

Regards, Allan MacRae

Background Information:

I published in January 2021 that the Covid-19 “vaccines” are kill shots. The “vaccine mandates” are a death sentence for more than one in 500 of the vaxxed; maybe up to one in 60.

“78% of the deaths in the U.K. are among the ‘double-vaccinated.”
– Canadian Physician Dr. Mark Trozzi

“If we vaccinate our children the deaths we’ve seen in adults so far we will now see in children.”
– Canadian Epidemiologist Dr. Paul Alexander

“I think we’ve completely suppressed any form of treatment or help to people in order to promote the vaccine. Now the vaccine doesn’t work completely and it’s, frankly, dangerous. We’re down to almost one message: Take the jab or else … It’s the scariest time to be an American, and thank goodness half of Americans didn’t take it.”
– American Cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough

“In the end, I predict that we’re going to see mass illnesses and deaths among people who normally would have wonderful lives ahead of them.”
– German Microbiologist Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi

My latest paper:
“SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT”
https://correctpredictions.ca/
“The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.”

Post Script:
A rough estimate of deaths and severe injuries from the Covid-19 injections totals in the tens of millions, in the same order of magnitude as total deaths from WW2. This is based on an estimate by David Archibald of one death per 60 vaxxed in Year 1. Hope he’s wrong…

Last edited 4 months ago by Allan MacRae
Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
January 19, 2022 12:35 pm

“…and therefore send not to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee.”
— John Donne (1624) From Meditations, XVII

Pat Frank
Reply to  Allan MacRae
January 19, 2022 5:14 pm

Allan – what’s your prediction? Hot war or no?

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Pat Frank
January 19, 2022 10:26 pm

Re question: “Allan – what’s your prediction? Hot war or no?”

A big question, and outside my skill set, which is scientific and technical.

I believe the last USA election was stolen with millions of fake ballots and other political subterfuge. That could happen again.

IF NOT, IF a conservative USA government is elected, there should be a quick public inquiry of the facts and all those responsible for the gross mismanagement of the Covid-19 illness and the resulting huge loss-of-life should be criminally indicted and imprisoned.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
January 20, 2022 12:24 am

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/01/watch-nhs-doctor-tells-patient-not-take-covid-vaccine-will-pulled-soon-warns-vaccine-data-hidden-public/

WATCH: NHS Doctor Tells Patient NOT to Take Covid Vaccine Because They Will Be PULLED Soon – Warns That Vaccine Data is Being Hidden From Public

Pat Frank
Reply to  Allan MacRae
January 20, 2022 5:56 am

Thanks, Allan. I’m with you on all that.

I work to be a free-thinker, without partisan affiliation to any party. Nevertheless, every single crisis faced by the US and Western civilization has been manufactured by the progressive left,

The Covid/mRNA business is their first mass murder of the 21st century.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
January 24, 2022 6:33 am

OK, I found a link for the document I posted previously, which was removed by moderation, probably because it was to long:
 
I think it is credible – it is consistent with the aforementioned paper that I published in 2019 that I know is legitimate.
 
Nothing about our governments’ woke programs for Climate or Covid made any sense from the start – everything they did made things worse. There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group could be this wrong for this long – it’s not an error, it’s a plan – and it is happening in Canada, the USA, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, France, Germany and many other countries all over the world.
 
Excerpt: “That it won’t just be Canada but in fact all nations will have similar roadmaps and agendas.
 
SOURCE DOCUMENT FOR THE ABOVE STRATEGIC PLANNING COMMITTEE’S CHECKLIST
 
Is this leaked info really Trudeau’s crazy COVID plan for 2021? You decide … – The CANADIAN REPORT

SAMURAI
January 18, 2022 12:38 am

But, but… Dr. Viner of the UK CRU said in 2001 that, “Soon our kids won’t even know what snow looks like.. (due to CAGW)…

Our kids are now all grown up, married, and we now have grandkids, and yet I’m still patiently waiting for the snow to stop falling in the winter….

I guess when you’re a renowned CAGW “scientist”, “soon” can mean 50~100 years…or never…

Oh, but, “we’re referring to climate, not weather”…

Yeah, right… Got it…

AndyHce
January 18, 2022 1:43 am

Does anyone have even a foggy (fact based) notion?

This article
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-weather-forecasts-can-spark-a-new-kind-of-extreme-event-attribution
claims that weather forecast models are now being used to show the strong relationship (attribution) between nasty fossil fuels and extreme weather. This, it is claimed, is accomplished by running a weather forecast model multiple times over such an event, each run using different concentrations of atmospheric CO2.

Does anyone know, are atmospheric CO2 concentrations really part of weather forecast models? If so, why?

Derg
Reply to  AndyHce
January 18, 2022 1:53 am

This is a new one to me.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  AndyHce
January 18, 2022 2:50 am

Does anyone know, are atmospheric CO2 concentrations really part of weather forecast models?

I imagine that you can make a weather forecasting model with any input parameters that you want. You could add the price of fish in Thurston if you wanted to.

If so, why?

So that they can use the models to ‘prove’ that CO2 makes weather worse. The actual models will probably predict just like normal (sensible) models when you add the CO2 as is. The trick will be to make any extreme weather go away when you reduce the CO2 levels.

In this way, like all of Climate Scientology, it becomes utterly impossible to disprove, and many people who don’t want to think for themselves, or possibly can’t, will be fooled.

MarkW
Reply to  AndyHce
January 18, 2022 7:57 am

I’ve never seen a weather model that includes CO2, especially since there is so little change in CO2 concentrations over the 5 to 10 periods covered by weather forecasts.

AndyHce
Reply to  MarkW
January 19, 2022 1:01 am

The message of the article, at the very least implied, is that they use (a) standard weather forecasting model(s) that are actually used to make real weather forecasts, as in the forecast reported to the public, government, interested corporations, or whomever.

That such everyday weather forecast models use CO2 concentration as an input seems unlikely to be true but if it is the case that they do indeed use CO2 concentrations, there must be an interesting story there.

Anyone can have an opinion, just like me, but such opinions are about as useful as the medieval monks who chose to debate, at great length, the number of teeth in a donkey’s mouth, using scripture, Aristotle, and deductive (il)logic, refusing to actually count the teeth in their little band of donkeys.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  AndyHce
January 20, 2022 12:50 am

All the work I’ve seen indicates that “wilder weather” correlates best with colder weather – hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.

Dusty
January 18, 2022 1:48 am

I don’t expect winter to lose its grip until the middle of March.

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Dusty
January 18, 2022 4:02 am

Beware the Ides of March.

Redge
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
January 18, 2022 4:29 am

Ne’er cast a clout till May be out

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Redge
January 18, 2022 8:49 am

We need to mock alarmism with humor. Some years ago Dulux ran an ad in Ireland: Irish weather has always been unpredictable.” Not a single person reported them to the advertising agency for a misleading or false ad.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/03/28/why-ireland-is-green/

rah
Reply to  Dusty
January 18, 2022 2:44 pm

Just keep an eye on the MJO.

rah
January 18, 2022 1:53 am

Joe Bastardi said pretty much exactly the same thing in his last Saturday Summary so the author is in good company.

Yesterday was this truckers worst day of winter driving so far. Did a 4 stop milk run into Ohio. Going up I-69 at the 170 mm in Indiana things went to crap quickly due to freezing drizzle. Multiple accidents and slide offs.

When I hit I-469 the road was dry and things went well as I went to Van Wert and my first two stops. But then I went further east on US 30 and when I had to get off onto OH-98 and then 598 things went to crap again. This time it was snow drifting over the exposed places out in the farm fields heading up towards Shelby, OH.

Still, I did the 545 mile round trip just fine and on schedule. Unlike a couple buddies of mine that were headed up towards Holland, MI and ended up sitting on a ramp off US-31 north of Puru, IN and finally, after nearly 4 hours sitting on a ramp, being told to turn it around and come back to the terminal because basically the whole way up north from there was a sheet of ice and a total mess.

Things down south in KY weren’t much better, but down there it was snow and not so much ice.

There are times when it is just plain stupid to try and push through, and for my two buddies on US-31 it was one of those times.

I am doing the same run today but expect that today road conditions will be better.

Last edited 4 months ago by rah
Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  rah
January 18, 2022 3:03 am

just curious but how much of the problem is due to the road crews not using as much sand and salt as in the past- and maybe not plowing as effectively?

Rah
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 18, 2022 6:10 am

It is not different in most places really. A great improvement pretreating with slurry has kept things pretty much the same I believe.

Derg
Reply to  rah
January 18, 2022 3:27 am

Rah what impact due you see on the trucker vaccine mandate between Canada and US?

Rah
Reply to  Derg
January 18, 2022 6:18 am

For me personally it’s great. No more Canada runs for me. But for the supply chains In general I suspect it is going to turn to be a serious problem.

Sara
Reply to  rah
January 18, 2022 5:08 am

Are we going to have bare shelves and coolers again? Just askin’, since I can make a run to the store this week instead of waiting. Ice cream is important, you know.

rah
Reply to  Sara
January 18, 2022 3:16 pm

I can’t tell you that except there have been some places seeing shortages before this madness and that is because our own supply chain issues have not been addressed. The backups at the ports now are worse than they were a couple months ago.

But I can tell you specific to the border madness to expect another spike in lumber prices and don’t be surprised if pork prices spike.

Sara
Reply to  rah
January 18, 2022 4:31 pm

OK, so stock up on sausage, bacon and ham, all of which are freezable, and currently available even the if the prices simply make you wince when you get them.

I posted an article elsewhere in which I gave a census count of container ships for both east and west coasts, waiting to unload. The total (last week) came to 152, and there seems to be no hurry to bring them into port. Also, roads for heavy-duty trucks are not being properly cleaned of snow or maintained and that does make a difference in delivery times.

In my view, it’s intentionally done by some individuals in WDC who need to spend some time without their privileged pantries and fridges. I do know people who are continuing with hunting this winter to keep their larders stocked.

rah
January 18, 2022 2:11 am

As an old winter and Alpine warrior that has lived outside for days or weeks at a time during the height of winter in places ranging from Alaska and Norway to the Alps in various countries, the Rockies, and the Green Mountains of VT, White Mountains of NH, and the upper Adirondacks in up state NY.

I have found that there is a character to cold that is not measured meteorologically in any way. temperature, “realfeel”/ wind chill does not capture the bite. The bitterness. The difference in the bite of the cold from one place to another even though the temp is the same.

Sub zero temps up there in New England hurts worse than the sub zero temps I have experienced anywhere I ever was in the Alps or Rockies regardless of altitude.

And as for the height of the winter weather? Well here in the eastern US and midwest it has seemed to usually hit the last 2 weeks of January through the first two weeks of February. So we’re into that period and that is exactly what we are seeing.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  rah
January 18, 2022 5:56 am

Yes, the middle of January to the middle of February is the coldest time of the year.

The weather looks to be unfolding normally to me.

The jet stream is cutting across the U.S. from northwest to southeast. Everyone to the east of the jet stream is getting the real cold weather, and everyone west of the jet stream is experiencing milder temperatures. I’m located on the western edge of the jet stream and will be getting some of that cold weather, but nothing like they are going to get farther east and northeast of me.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-109.36,37.31,304

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  rah
January 18, 2022 10:21 am

Has to do with moisture content, the “bite” you describe. Lived all my life on the canadian prairies but the coldest i felt in a long time was in Seoul during December 5-6 years ago, -5C was nasty uncomfortable, part of the reason they have multi-levels of underground shopping there.

Another good example is being in a Oilsands plant in northern AB when its -45 as these are basically big steam plants, -45 with all that added moisture really bites into exposed skin even with no wind.

Flying from Calgary to Yellowknife in dead of winter when there is a massive cold high pressure system, you can count all the mushroom clouds rising thousands of meters above each plant, can look like something out of science fiction or a war movie with a dozen mushroom clouds rising.

AleaJactaEst
January 18, 2022 3:03 am

please can we have some globull warming……

Sara
Reply to  AleaJactaEst
January 18, 2022 5:11 am

You want fries with that? 🙂

auto
Reply to  Sara
January 18, 2022 2:51 pm

Did the Mann-made globull warming chap not get an award for his fries?
Or not?

Auto

Philo
Reply to  Sara
January 20, 2022 7:53 am

I don’t want cold, I WANT warming RIGHT NOW!

Tom Abbott
Reply to  AleaJactaEst
January 18, 2022 5:58 am

Yes, more warming please!

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 18, 2022 12:02 pm

Hold the fries.

Redge
January 18, 2022 4:30 am

Where’s Al?

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Redge
January 18, 2022 5:07 am

Who?

Redge
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
January 18, 2022 5:25 am

Gore (The Gore Effect)

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Redge
January 18, 2022 5:59 am

Gore is probably in Buffalo, New York, going by the snow deptth.

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 5:30 am

comment image

Last edited 4 months ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 5:45 am

Temperature in degrees Celsius.

Graemethecat
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 9:16 am

Blimey, that’s cold for Florida!

MarkW
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 8:02 am

Expect the price of orange juice to go up this year.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  MarkW
January 18, 2022 10:14 am

Call Eddie Murphy and buy FCOJ shares stat!!!!!!!!!

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 5:38 am

The graphic shows the long-term circulation in the lower stratosphere, which has a critical influence on the circulation in the upper troposphere during winter.comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 5:50 am

Updated daily circulation blocking in the ozone zone over the Bering Sea.comment image

Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
January 18, 2022 5:52 am

It looks like I picked a bad time to gut the kitchen and remove all the wall insulation. 🥶

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
January 18, 2022 10:13 am

What could go wrong in January

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
January 18, 2022 1:20 pm

Yesssss, unless you’re in Oz, it might be considered a sub-optimal time to be opening up any exterior walls.

Bruce Cobb
January 18, 2022 5:54 am

Well I guess yesterday’s storm here in NH and elsewhere was an example of “climate chaos”. Heavy snow at first, and then a quick change over to rain with temps rising into the 30s and even 40s. The snowblower was not amused. They aren’t really designed to throw slushy stuff, and the chute can clog up quickly. I cleared some, but then had to give up. I thought about getting plowed out, but decided not to. Whatever bankings they left would freeze solid. Plus, they tend to make a mess. We cleared some by hand, but it was slow going. Push it, and you soon have an immovable pile you just have to shovel anyway. There was also a layer of ice underneath, requiring sand. Ran out of sand.
Of course any connection to climatewhatever is nonsense. The track of the storm determined what we wound up with. Further east, and it would have been all snow.

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 5:55 am

The low elevation of the tropopause indicates dry air and severe frost at the surface.comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 6:07 am

Still strong La Niña.comment image

rah
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 2:39 pm

Not strong according to the ENSO meter on this site. Just mediocre.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  rah
January 19, 2022 12:07 am

Strong, for the period.comment image

Last edited 4 months ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Tom Abbott
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
January 19, 2022 1:44 am

So ocean temperatures are variable around the world. Some portions are warm and some portions are colder.

Alarmists say its all warming.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Tom Abbott
January 19, 2022 9:25 am

However, the decline in ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific Equatorial region is affecting weather in many regions of the Earth, including North America.

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 6:43 am

Still unusually high, for a phase of the solar cycle, levels of galactic radiation (neutrons, as secondary radiation are measured near the Earth’s surface).comment image
https://www.nmdb.eu/station/oulu/

Philo
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
January 20, 2022 8:01 am

Thank the Solar Scientists who predicted a solar minimum, lasting possibly to 2050!. I’m glad I’m old enough that I can’t possibly live that long.

D. J. Hawkins
January 18, 2022 6:52 am

I live in NJ, and until the last couple of weeks, our winter was normal-mild. We’ve now had some excursions into sub-10°F overnight temperatures, and 28°F as of this writing. But yesterday it was up to 43°F. The real East Coast is on that fine edge where the temperature whipsaws back and forth. I wouldn’t call central Pennsylvania and West Virginia the East Coast. If you’re more than 50 miles or so from the Atlantic, you’re not near the “coast”.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
January 19, 2022 1:46 am

Yes, the ocean makes a lot of difference in the type of weather people experience.

Al Gore
January 18, 2022 7:19 am

Quick – write a check to your favorite Global Warming scammer, before it’s too late!

Walter Sobchak
January 18, 2022 7:47 am

I want my Global Warming. And I want it now!

MarkW
January 18, 2022 8:03 am

Where are the usual suspects to proclaim that the climate models predicted this?

TonyG
Reply to  MarkW
January 18, 2022 12:45 pm

“It’s just weather! We’re still all gonna d!e when climate change melts the earth”

That work, Mark?

MarkW
Reply to  TonyG
January 18, 2022 12:54 pm

Thank you, I was getting worried.

Alan
January 18, 2022 8:58 am

Imagine how cold it would be if not for global warming?

Pat from Kerbob
January 18, 2022 10:10 am

Glad to see it shift east, had 3 weeks of -30’s here in Alberta so now we get a better stretch.

As a former AB Premier once said, “those eastern bastards can freeze in the dark”, strangely it is what they are asking for with with the Build Back Better/green energy boondoggle.

Last edited 4 months ago by Pat from Kerbob
Teewee
January 18, 2022 11:17 am

This is a very good news. Perhaps in the near future the pools that live in the north east might embrace global warming has something good. We all could use a little global warming right now.

Kevin McNeill
January 18, 2022 11:45 am

We live on Vancouver Island, top left of the weather maps just under the 50N line, generally speaking, if we can get through January without much difficulty then the rest is plain sailing and these weather maps seem to say that that will be the game plan this year again. Temperature outside is about 7 degrees C with a bit of mist and fog, typical for January. This has been the story since we moved here in 1969, climate change my ass.

ResourceGuy
January 18, 2022 2:29 pm

Surely the AI climate disaster engine can spit out warnings and fake science claims for trolls and media outlets covering this….weather.

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 18, 2022 2:37 pm

A dry arctic air mass dominates Alaska, central and eastern Canada.comment image

rah
January 18, 2022 2:41 pm

Anyone else notice that what is happening is EXACTLY opposite of the NOAA long range forecast that showed warmer than usual weather for the eastern half of the country for this time?

It seems to me that of all of the major models, the US is always the last to see the cold.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  rah
January 19, 2022 12:17 am

And that’s because they took into account the typical circulation during La Niña, but they didn’t take into account the polar vortex circulation and the weak solar wind.comment image

Last edited 4 months ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
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