Guest essay by Eric Worrall
“It’s really important not to automatically assume that every bad thing that is happening is because of climate change, it’s not true.”
Global warming not responsible for Madagascar famine: study
Issued on: 02/12/2021 – 06:34Modified: 02/12/2021 – 06:32
Paris (AFP) – Global warming played only a minimal role in the famine that has hit Madagascar, according to a new study published Thursday which contradicts a UN description of the crisis as a “climate change famine”.
The southern Indian Ocean island off Africa has been hit by its worst drought in four decades.
The UN’s World Food Programme said last month that more than 1.3 million people there were considered to be in a food security crisis or emergency as a result.
In June the WFP said Madagascar is the “first country in the world that is experiencing famine-like conditions as a result of the climate crisis”.
…
“Our results are not surprising, they are very much in line with previous studies,” of Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute told AFP.
“I was more surprised by the UN branding this as clearly as climate change induced,” she added, saying “extreme events are always a combination of things”.
“It’s really important not to automatically assume that every bad thing that is happening is because of climate change, it’s not true.”
…
Read more: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211202-global-warming-not-responsible-for-madagascar-famine-study
A copy of the study is available on World Weather Attribution.
In my opinion, the main reason the people of Madagascar are poor is their government are a bunch of thugs, an opinion backed by the US Department of State Human Rights Report. Climate Change is likely just an excuse to cover a complete failure to provide basic services.
“According to the WWA report, “poverty, poor infrastructure and dependence on rain-fed agriculture, combined with natural climate variability, are the main factors behind the Madagascar food crisis, with climate change playing no more than a small part.” One of the authors went on to say that any climate change effect is unmeasurable.
Friederike Otto and Robert Vautard are in great danger of cancellation. Any way to track their careers going forward? I am going to bookmark Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute’s website. The Institute could probably look forward to angry mobs attacking it.
The UN and its World Food Program are climate change liars. Along with Xiden, Kerrey & etc. Let’s Go Brandon!
But that’s the easiest way to avoid blame, and avoid having to actually do anything about it. In addition, you get to claim all sorts of extra goodies because Climate Change!
“ I was more surprised by the UN branding this as clearly as climate change induced,”
Really? After the relentless hype put out this year?
I don’t know if the current leaders are more of a “bunch of thugs” any more that those in many African countries are. Having worked there for about 3 years in the 1970’s I think the main problem is the high population growth…from 8 million in 1973 when I was there to 28 million today and currently growing at 2.7%. This leads to food supply issues and any dry spell can be disasterous. Certainly not due to climate change.
Such a lovely country with wonderful people; but so desperately poor. Tourism will help so try and visit if you can…great scenery, diving and wildlife and gemstones. They have nickel and cobalt so maybe that will help too with increasing prices for these commodities. The cobalt mine is owned by the Japanese and South Koreans so that’s a good sign.
Alastair, there is a place to check for corruption, see “Transparency International Corruption Perception Index”, which, for 2020, places Madagascar at 149 worst out of 180 ranked countries. Their score of 25 compares to New Zealand at 88, where New Zealand is the least corrupt country in the ranking.
Already a major producer of large-flake graphite, with production ramping up to meet demand from the battery sector.
NZ the least corrupt. They have just become an apart ide nation, with those without vaccinations for the China virus no longer full citizens.
But I guess if those sub humans can’t buy their way to freedom, then NZ is not corrupt!
What’s an “ide” nation? Should I know?
I think that Drake meant apartheid.
Beginning the ’60s, just after independance from France, Madagascar was exporting long rice and zebu’s proceeded meat for example. But the population was less than 6 millions and now 25 without increasing surfaces for agriculture out of deforestation and slash-and-burn farming. Heavy rains erode the existing soil of very poor laterite. A lot of overpasture for malnourished zebus as the local custom is that one is considered rich by the number of zebus owned and not by their well-fed state.
Quote:”Climate Change is likely just an excuse to cover a complete failure to provide basic services.”
What do you mean by ‘likely‘
Climate Change is an absolute gift for, as stated ‘poor government and thugs‘
(Expand your notion of what a thug might look like – maybe the ‘and‘ should be = ‘are‘)
A gift for junk science, fake empathy, fake news, fake people, buck passers, lazy no-good sons of bitches and Fake Everything.
Because, there are 7+ Billion ‘climates’ on this world and every single one of them is different from the rest…..
Let’s face it Climate Change is an absolute gift, aka get out of ja free card, for all politicians, civil servants and utility suppliers the world over.
Storm Arwen has left people in Northern. England and Scotland facing a second week without electricity. Naturally nothing to do with incompetence but made worse by climate change. Last year 400,000 discharges of raw sewage in rivers and the sea by UK water companies. Lack of investment, that’s not what Thatcher said she said more investment would follow however I digress, but climate change is making these much more likely. Water rationing during periods of low rainfall = not us gov it’s climate change don’t you know.
Bojo has sorted being asked difficult questions, just ignore them completely and the MSM moves on.
Amazingly The Guardian (3rd Dec) published a letter which said
(I guess if he hadn’t put the second unprecedented in the letter would not have been published)
Have they failed to notice that poor governance and thuggery isn’t exactly confined to Madagascar – or even to Africa?
Much incompetence and cruelty here in UK, not to mention US, Oz, EU etc.
OK, we have quite a way to get down to the levels that have been obvious in most of Africa for half a century, but our own Beloved Leaders are doing their very best to beat them and their new Chinese Colonial masters at their own game.
A race to the bottom!
What could go wrong?
And never mind marshalling facts and using that fuddy duddy racist logic and reason!
97% of scientists agree that it is how you FEEL about a situation that really matters!
Rhodesia was the food basket of Africa before independence. Independence, together with its name change to Zimbabwe and rule by thugs, led to it changing from the food basket of Africa to the basket case of Africa.
How many countries in Africa are not run by a bunch of thugs? Corruption is rife and the elite dictators and their minions purloin vast sums of money.
How many countries
in Africaare not run by a bunch of thugs?Corruption is rife and the elite dictators and their minions purloin vast sums of money.
While corruption, fraud, mismanagement, incompetence and the like are to be found in every country, these tend to be worse in certain parts of the world like in African countries. People are too poor and powerless to push back. Democracy is a sham like in Zimbabwe that simply replaced Mugabe with Mugabe 2.0. Africa does not have a climate problem or a problem with population numbers – it is a huge continent with massive potential – but a people problem.
It’s really important to automatically assume that every bad thing that is happening is because of CO2 induced climate change … & the BBC tells us this … constantly.
When CO2 was 350ppm I was fine, but now with CO2 at 410ppm I have Hemorrhoids !!
What more proof do you need.
We’ve all got haemorroids (at least we’d be in trouble if we hadn’t). I suspect you have piles.
Indeed;
I picked this up from the bottom of the pile today !
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bomb-squad-called-gloucestershire-royal-6298076
It’s one way of resolving itching piles !!
” Global warming not responsible for Madagascar Famine ”
This is really news!
Astonishing, perplexing:
A calamity which is not caused by climate change!
There has been a great deal of erosion in Madagascar due to clear cutting hillsides. That may not be a major contribution to agricultural problems but it must be a factor. I recall many years ago when National Geographic had an issue focused on this problem with aerial photos showing the massive erosion.
Yes, that’s quite right. I’ve flown from Nairobi to Madagascar many times and from about half way across the ocean between the two you could see the red stain in the ocean waters. Long before you could see the Red Island itself. Quite sad…this was in about 1974 and I’m sure it was not new then. A huge loss of soil caused by poor people just trying to survive.
To be clear, the drought and ensuing famine are restricted to the Androy region in the southern point of Madagascar, representing just under 22.000 sq.km of the island’s total area of close to 590.000 sq.km. The Androy (land of the ‘roy’ – pronounced ‘roowy’ – or spiny bush) is semi- to sub-arid with annual rainfall between 400 and 700 mm. Its recent history shows recurring periods of severe drought, eventually leading to famine. The most severe occurred in 1930-1931, 1936, 1943-1944 (half of the population left the region, 15000 dead), 1956, 1991-1992, 2003, 2006-2007, 2011 and now, 2021. Not to detract of the scale of the tragedy, but to point out that none of what is happening now is news to the Antandroy (inhabitants of the Androy).
This is Micky Mouse attribution “science”, they deduce the recent drought was a “one in 135 years” event. One of the authors did something similar for the recent Cape Town drought, which apparently was a one-in-300-years event. A pretty neat “Trick”, given only several decades of data. The only way to deduce something like that is to have a sophisticated understanding of the data, which simply doesn’t exist. Could one deduce the frequency of world wars from only 20th century data?
They also deploy all the scary drought soundbites. It is worth remembering that most years of rainfall in dry areas get less rain than the “normal” (average). Typically there might be 4 years of little rain, and one year of heavy rain, giving an average greater than what is seen in all of the dry years.
Don’t trust any study that fails to show all the data.
In examining the headline chart of rainfall in Androy, southern Madagascar I am most concerned about the apparent total lack of April rainfall. Wonder what other details they got wrong or forgot or dismissed.
I find it interesting that their severe drought is at ~900mm of precipitation annually. In western Colorado our normal precip is 450mm, and about 300 for the eastern plains of the state.
In Midwest states, normal annual precip is ~900 mm, so it is hard for me to believe that amount somehow translates to “severe drought” and famine in Madagascar. And that is only about 25% drop from their normal 1200 mm. I’d guesstimate from my local historical annual precip records that 25% is about 1.3 standard deviations of variance in annual precipitation, so being maybe a once in ten year event and would be considered as a rather mild drought year.
After a closer reconsideration of the data, I think 25% low is more of a moderate to severe drought level for my location rather than mild, about a once in 15 year event. My bad. Still 900 mm seems like plenty of rain but maybe their soils drain fast.
Destroyed by government.
Likely no money left over after thievery to build resiliency structures like dams and reservoirs especially if that 900mm come a in a short period.
Look no further than govt.
Same issue here in canada with the BC govt, ignored decades of reports that the flood infrastructure of their flood plain habitat was inadequate, flood comes and “climate change done it”.
Sure the socialist thugs are responsible for the problems in Madagascar by their policies that destroy market incentives, but I totally reject the concept “complete failure to provide basic services.”
That is just Marxism Lite thinking. Government should get out of the way and let the free market work. It’s not government’s role to provide basic services, at least not government bigger than the municipal level for things like fire and police protection, or snow removal, all of which should be paid by local taxes. There ought to be absolutely no role for government in food production.
All famines are now political
There is more than enough food, we don’t let people starve even in countries of committed enemies.
If people are starving to death it’s because people decided it should be so