Reposted from The NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin on 18. April 2021
It’s been a really frosty April this year across Central Europe. Germany so far has seen it’s second coldest April since records began in 1881.
Hat-tip: Snowfan
Coldest since 1917
April across much of Europe has been unusually cold, frosty and even snowy, and the media have been awfully quiet about it. The following chart shows the mean temperature anomalies with respect to the 1991-2020 reference period so far (up through April 17):
With a mean temperature of 4.5°C for Germany, April so far continues to be the second coldest since 1881, according to German DWD national weather service records. Only 1917 was colder at a mean of 4.3°C.
Another cold blast forecast for next weekend
And it likely isn’t going to change too much, as the ECMWF model is forecasting yet another unusual April cold wave with snow and frost for next week. A warm up is forecast near the end of the month, but that is still some 10 days out.
Most snowy April in 35 years
One thing is already certain: For Germans, it will be the most snowy April since 1986 – video.
The WO/GFS forecasts (left and right) see a continuation of the April winter with widespread ground frost from April 23. Extremely cold air with up to -12°C deviations from the old WMO climate mean 1981-2010 over Germany is projected on April 26 at 850 hPa. Sources: WO/GFS forecasts Tmin ground Germany and WZ/GEM forecasts TA850 Europe.
Northern hemisphere cooling continues
The German media recently claimed that “the global warming continues”, but the NCEP GFS run of April 18 shows a temperature anomaly of near zero.
Chart source: 2m-temperatures global 7 day trend
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The next impact of a stratospheric intrusion in the northeastern US will be severe for residents.
A slight increase in latitudinal circulation due to an increase in solar wind speed could shift a powerful typhoon over the island of Luzon.
Cold but not unusual except lets hope it is not the beginning of an ice age.
Beginning? We’re already in an ice age and the present interglacial is already well into its dotage. Temperatures have been falling for roughly 8000 years.
It is not an ice age. This is simply a cold trend which should continue through the 2030s before the next warm trend will show up.
I see Denver is bracing for another big snow storm. I just looked out the window, it’s snowing in the Twin Cities.
16F low overnight.
Currently there is a slight increase in UV radiation but solar flares are still weak.
https://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/gomemgii.html
But…but…Germany is warming! We are all dying of Global Warming! Some needs to change the data and quick because it has to be Global Warming!
I just love it when reality crashes a liberal party.
Today : April 19, 22:25 local time. Thirty days in the month, it might be a bit early to call it a record cold month.
It has been cold in the UK this April also The central England temperature record was standing at an anomaly of -1.5 last time I looked.
well today in UK was again T shirt weather and time to weed the garden
And the 9th day in a row with very little wind power.
THANK GOODNESS FOR FOSSIL FUELS.. particularly GAS
Hi Vuk,
I appreciate your insights – thank you.
Last week it was the destruction of early crops (fruits including grapes – Save the Chateauneuf-du-Pape!) in France, now reports of unusual cold in Germany. Europe is freezing its grapes off.
Being fond of excellent European wines, and having friends across Europe, this cooling, which we correctly predicted in 2002, is still distressing to me.
It is not satisfying to be proved correct when everyone suffers – the norm during natural solar-driven global cooling periods. The polar vortex will go where it goes. Bundle up!
Best regards, Allan
Post Script:
Based on Nino34 temperatures, the cooling not over yet.
I wrote in August 2020:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/solar-plasma-temperature-is-plunging-should-we-worry/#comment-3068819
Check out NIno34 temperatures, again down to Minus 0.6C – winter will be cold.
This formula works reasonably well back to 1982, which is the limit of my data availability.
UAHLT (+4 months) = 0.2*Nino34Anomaly + 0.15 – 5*SatoGlobalAerosolOpticalDepth
Nino34 SST anom’s hit minimums of minus1.4C-1.3C in Oct2020 and Nov2020 – so global coldest temperatures (+4 months) should be Feb2021 and Mar2021.* Spring could also be late in many parts of the world.
Update: Nino34 anomaly stayed below minus0.5C until 7March2021 – Plus 4 months is early April, May, June, July.
______________________________
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/13/winter-is-not-going-away-without-a-fight/#comment-3225254
Told you so, two decades ago! Natural solar-driven global cooling to start circa 2020.
My paper published in March 2021:
“CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET”
https://electroverse.net/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset/
The most recent strong cooling event hit Europe last weekend, and wiped out much of the
French fruit (and grape) crop.
It saddens me to see severe cooling events happening all around the world, as we predicted
two decades ago in 2002 – it’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck that we tried to warn people about, and nobody would listen. I’ve always been a builder, and to watch the global warming climate fraudsters repeatedly delude idiot politicians and the public has been a depressing debacle.
Trillions of dollars of scarce global resources have been squandered on deliberate warmist frauds, as our society sleepwalked towards climate-and-green-energy disaster.
I have repeatedly stated that our idiot politicians have brewed the perfect storm, destabilizing the electrical grid with intermittent green energy nonsense at a time when we will need more abundant, reliable energy due to imminent global cooling.
We can hope that this cooling will be mild and short-lived, but I have no strong opinion, having not done the detailed work to try to quantify it. Some analysts are calling for a Grand Solar Minimum. Let’s hope it is no worse than the Dalton Minimum, and not like the Maunder.
Allan, your prediction was that cooling would have already begun by 2020. That year turned out to be the warmest or second warmest year on record, according to most global temperature data producers. GISS and NOAA suggest that March 2021 was inside the top ten warmest Marches since global surface records began in 1880. It looks like April will be up there too, despite Germany. There have been well documented natural cooling conditions for several months, thanks to the recent La Nina. You think your prediction of cooling has come true. I think you may be living in a state of self delusion.
Don’t be utterly ridiculous nailhead.
First, a prediction made in 2002 for two decades into the future is essentially perfect if it lands correctly within a year or so. This is especially true when it speaks against the huge mass of contrary opinion, whether warming alarmist or climate skeptic.
Next, planting was one month late across the Great Plains of North America in 2018 and 2019, and in 2019 there was a huge crop failure across the Plains. Cooling had already started.
I have studied this subject for 36 years and have two engineering degrees. My bet, based on your comments, is you have not seriously studied this subject for 36 minutes. So much for your attempted slander, and your uninformed opinion.
The polar vortex goes where it goes, but our prediction of cooling by ~2020 was spot on. Cooling is particularly apparent worldwide in Winter 2020-2021.
Bundle up – it’s not over yet.
Refuting nailhead’s nonsense:
Global Lower Tropospheric Temperatures have declined 0.6C in 13 months, from an anomaly of +0.59C in February 2020 to only -0.01C in March 2021.
Allan,
Your post got me thinking about the almost daily propaganda that we are on track for 2C warming by 2050, or 4C warming by 2100.
Not only is the UAH Satellite-based Temperature data casting this into extreme doubt but if you look at GISTemp you will see the effect of La Niña from January 2016 to January 2018 (following the El Niño surge in 2015/2016).
There was a decline of 0.56C in that period in GISTemp which is the largest decline since 1982/83.
Two years of “global cooling”!
Further, go to woodfortrees.org and click on “Notes”.
There we learn that in comparing temperature anomalies of GISTemp,HADCRU4,RSS and UAH,“you can see the current trends in degrees C,between 0.13 and 0.17C/decade,or if it continues at the same rate,between 1.3 and 1.7C per century”.
The critical question is “if it continues at the same rate”.
So,unless you believe that global temperatures are going to take off like Usain Bolt,(and the present anomalies do not give any indication of this),we are looking at benign warming (max1.7C for the Century) on any view of the matter.
Am I missing something?
Hi Herbert,
RE your question: “Am I missing something?”
No you are not – without getting into the details of the numbers, global warming alarmism has always been a false crisis – and I say a deliberately fraudulent one.
Why is it a deliberate fraud? Because no rational scientist or group could be this wrong, this utterly obtuse to the facts, for this long. It is fraud.
The alleged warming crisis was fabricated using computer climate models that were designed to create false alarm – the ASSUMED (and false) model input parameters dictated the scary warming result, and ~all these models have grossly over-predicted warming in the decades they have been in existence.
The climate models don’t accurately forecast the future; and unless they are deliberately biased with false aerosol inputs, they don’t even accurately forecast the past! It’s a con – a shell game.
Background Information
My friends Dick Lindzen and Will Happer are two of the most accomplished scientists on the planet, and two of the most intelligent men.
CLIMATE ‘EMERGENCY’? NOT SO FAST
By Richard Lindzen & William Happer, April 16, 2021
https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/04/climate-emergency-not-so-fast/
[excerpt]
We are both scientists who can attest that the research literature does not support the claim of a climate emergency. Nor will there be one. None of the lurid predictions — dangerously accelerating sea-level rise, increasingly extreme weather, more deadly forest fires, unprecedented warming, etc. — are any more accurate than the fire-and-brimstone sermons used to stoke fanaticism in medieval crusaders.
_____________________________
Will Happer’s recent lecture is also worthwhile:
HOW TO THINK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE | William Happer Feb 24, 2021
_____________________________
My Fair Warning Notice to Warmist Trolls:
Don’t bother arguing with Lindzen or Happer – they are infinitely more intelligent and better educated than you – you will only harm yourselves.
Allan,
Thanks. I had read the National Review article and will now watch the Will Happer presentation.
But Allan, Rusty nail spends his time hitting his fingers and toes.
He have proven that he is an ignorant twit , as well as being a wack-a-mole AGW shill masochist..
ROFLMAO.
The much MAL-ADJUSTED FANTASY data set that bears basically ZERO resemblance to actual reality.
UAH shows March 2021 in 18th place in the last 43 years
Then there are all the high temperatures from the 1930,40s, since mal-adjusted, to consider.
Poor bent and rusty, his DELUSIONAL state of brain-washed gullibility and ignorance yet again highlighted for everyone to see.
Grapes? What about the hops? Beer counts for something, too, y’know!!!
Hi Sara,
Beer and wine are proof that God loves humanity!
We can only pray for salvation – in the dark times of the very cold Maunder Minimum, up to one hundred thousand “witches” were burned a the stake for allegedly causing global cooling. Warmist fraudsters take note.
After particularly hard weeks of arduous, sometimes dangerous overseas travel, my consolation was to drop by the James Joyce for a Guinness.
“My Guinness, my Goodness, my God! Peace at last! Peace at last! Peace at Last!”
It is my fervent hope and prayer that Dublin is spared this cold weather.
Arthur Guinness, St. James’s Gate, Dublin, Ireland, established 1759.
And six thumbs up to you, Allan! (I have two and my cat has four.)
Truth is, Sara, I have a dark side.
For example, I called down some very cold weather on the eastern half of our continent in recent winters–see below. My bad!
Actually, I don’t really control the weather; I just hang out with some very competent weather forecasters, climatologists, physicists, and other scientists – those with excellent predictive track records – the true measure of scientific and technical competence.
Why does anyone listen to the global warming fraudsters? At last count, the warmists had made ~80 very-scary failed predictions – and not one of them has actually happened! Nobody should believe these climate shills – about anything!
In 2002, I (we) predicted the global cooling to start by ~2020, and that was an expression of goodwill – a warning to not compromise (aka sabotage) our energy systems with grid-connected wind and solar power generation, which would wreak havoc upon the public – as has now happened in Texas, California, Germany, Britain, and elsewhere in North America and Western Europe.
We also did some good works – see Winter 2014-15, below.
Cheap, reliable, abundant energy is essential for the survival of modern society – and our idiot politicians and much of the public cannot seem to understand that most basic concept.
Stay safe and warm!
Best, Allan
THE DARK SIDE – WINTER 2018-19
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/17/will-the-snowiest-decade-continue/#comment-2521702
Fair warning: I’m calling down another very hard winter on the US Northeast, extending up into Canada.
The reason I’m doing this is that you deserve it. You continue to bleat about global warming, in a world that is about to get colder.
You continue to blather on about climate change and the need to eliminate fossil fuels – do that tomorrow and most of you will be dead within a month or two.
Fully 85% of global primary energy is fossil fuels and that number has not changed significantly in decades. Fossil fuel energy provides almost everything you need to survive in this complex world. It IS that simple!
So enjoy the bitter cold and snow this winter, good people, and maybe you will actually learn something.
Cold kills far more people then heat in the world today, probably about 2 million Excess Winter Deaths per year.
Bundle up!
THE DARK SIDE – WINTER 2015-16
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/22/friday-funny-probable-cause/#comment-1696813
OK – enough!
I’ve had it with you Eastern warmists.
So in February, I’m calling down some brutally frigid winter weather on you.
Mark your calendars and get out your long woollies…
THE REAL STORY – WINTER 2014-15
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/17/will-the-snowiest-decade-continue/#comment-2521694
Prior to the record snowfall in the winter of 2014–15, Joe D’Aleo and I sent a written warning to my friend at the EIA, stating that the NWS weather forecast that EIA used was extremely in error, and warning of a very cold and snowy winter to come, especially for the Northeast Coast.
The EIA reran their lower 48 USA energy demand for that winter using Joe’s forecast and calculated an additional 11% total energy required for the winter months. The actual energy consumption were one percent lower than Joe’s forecast and 10% higher in the NWS forecast. That is a huge amount of energy.
I do not know what contingency the EIA uses, so I don’t know if we saved any lives. Nevertheless, I believe we did a good deed and we may have indeed significantly reduced human suffering.
In summary, if you want an accurate weather forecast, go to WeatherBell, not NWS.
Serves ’em right to suffer.
Video from Germany – 13 April – das effing frostig kalt!
WettervideosDienstag, 13.04.2021
Nächte weiterhin frostig kalt
https://www.wetteronline.de/wetter-videos/2021-04-13-mk?cat=30
April 19 is not a good day to call the “coldest April”. True, it is “the coldest April so far”, but the coldest first half of April would have been better.
Who said anything about “coldest April” evah?
Not me. And it ain’t over yet!
Für die Natur problematisch – Im April sind die derzeit frostigen Nächte ein Problem für die Natur. Die befindet sich bereits im Frühling und zahlreiche Bäume blühen bereits oder tragen kleine Früchte. Viele Bauern müssen daher mit großem Aufwand ihre Obstbäume vor der Kälte schützen. Auch die kommenden Nächte werden wieder frostig kalt.
Problematic for nature – In April the currently frosty nights are a problem for nature. It is already in spring and numerous trees are already blooming or bearing small fruits. Many farmers therefore have to go to great lengths to protect their fruit trees from the cold. The coming nights will also be freezing cold again.
There will be lower yields in orchards and vineyards.
Frosts will occur for several nights.
OMG!!! Save the Rhine wines!
Just as I (we) predicted in 2002 – global cooling at the Solar Minimum – another disproof of the (failed) catastrophic human-made global warming hypothesis.
Fossil fuels are not the culprit, and neither is CO2. The only thing CO2 (aka “carbon”, to climate imbeciles) drives is the bubbles in your beer.
Deliberate leftist global warming fraud, by the usual WMO suspects. Wolves stampeding the sheep.
ENGLAND’S COLDEST APRIL SINCE 1922, GERMANY’S CHILLIEST SINCE 1917
April 20, 2021 Cap Allon
It may be late-April, but spring 2021 is a no show across much of Europe.
The continent is suffering a climatic reality similar to that of the previous prolonged spell of reduced solar output: not since the Centennial Minimum (1880-1920) have Europeans suffered an April this cold and snowy.
Here we have the ultimate rebuttal to the global warming scam. It is currently colder than usual in Germany and a couple of other places.
Surely this is ‘The Final Nail’? About time too!
“Here we have the ultimate PROOF to the global warming scam. It is currently WARMER than usual in AUSTRALIA and a couple of other places.”
Fixed it for ya.
Thanks for fixing that, Mr. Just shows that cherry picking time periods and locations is, well, cherry picking.
According to METAR, temperature.global the earth has been cooling for 5 years compared to the 30 year average. Airline pilots and ship captains rely on METAR unadjusted data for safe travel and don’t expect METAR to adjust the data as NOAA and GISS have. I can hear NOAA/GISS saying, “Have an nice trip, we changed the weather data/conditions for you!”
Your utter and complete demented desperation is showing through, yet again, bent and rusty !
Hey, bent and rusty, did you ever find any empirical evidence of warming by human released atmospheric CO2
Or are you still playing tiddly-winks with the fairies at the bottom of your mental trash heap.
Well looking at the records, it ain’t gonna get warmer for a while..
Went back thru all the months back to 1981 on the weatherbell.com site. For the ENTIRE month, there are several that were colder. Given the warming this week it is likely when the month is done it will be about 5th since 1981. In addition, most of the months in question had a widespread cold. Europes April’s 1980-1997 were much colder overall than this century. Here is the link. https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/analysis/cdas-all?d=europe_wide&p=tmp2m_anom_mtd_back_c. you can go look for yourself
Neighbor Netherlands is not any different. It has seen a record number of April nights with temperatures before freezing. It has also recorded one of the coldest April temperature readings. However warmer weather (20C) is expected for the end of the month.
Then again…. there is an old Dutch proverb: April does what it wants. Back in the old days, the Dutch already knew that their April weather was not stable and highly changeable.
global warming not only makes it really hot, but really cold too… really wet but also really dry… really snowy but also snowless… really sunny but also really cloudy… it’s
amazing…. what can’t global warming do???
From the article: “April across much of Europe has been unusually cold, frosty and even snowy, and the media have been awfully quiet about it.”
Censorship by omission.
Where’s that Climate Emergency at? Doesn’t it require hot temperatures in order to be a Climate Emergency?
I think that’s probably why the Leftwing Media is being silent. Freezing weather hurts their Human-caused Climate Change narrative. The weather is not cooperating with the Alarmist “hotter and hotter” meme.
Around my neck of the woods, the last frost date is usually around April 1. Today is April 19, and there’s a good chance we will have a freeze tomorrow night. It’s a little chilly around here. The Weatherman said we haven’t had a situation like this around here since about 1909.
It was plus20C in Calgary on Saturday and everyone was out on the patios enjoying drinks. The restaurants are in Covid-19 lockdown again but the powers-that-be have deigned that the plebs can drink and eat outdoors. Saturday was warm and sunny, party day for shut-ins.
Dropped to lid on the convertible and cruised the strip. American Graffiti – Where were you in 62? But it was not to last…
Sunday the temperature dropped to minus2C with snow mid-day and the patios were empty. The good news – your beer stayed really cold; the bad news – so did you.
Some people say this cooling is caused by CO2 and global warming. Avoid such people – they are not just really stupid – people that incredibly dumb are dysfunctional and can be quite dangerous – there’s no telling what insane thoughts rattle about inside their empty heads, and when one will suddenly pop out. When confronted with such dangerous warmist fanatics, do not argue; instead, make eye contact, smile, speak softly and gently and back away s-l-o-w-l-y.
“Some people say this cooling is caused by CO2 and global warming. Avoid such people”
Good advice! 🙂
what was germany’s wind generation like?
How the solar wind affects the circulation?
Currently, the solar wind speed has increased to about 600 km/s. You can see, stronger pressure of the jet current over Japan towards the east. This will direct the typhoon in the Philippine Sea towards the island of Luzon.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=wpac×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
The solar wind pulse is also seen in the current SOI spike.
There is currently an increase in solar activity. This can be seen in the increase in solar wind speed, but also two active sunspots have appeared that can produce M-class flares. Today such a flare occurred from sunspot 12817.
ren, here comes the late freeze you showed a couple of weeks ago.
I held off planting the tender plants because of your charts. Now, I don’t have to run out and cover everything up. 🙂
A cold front will hit the northeastern US.
Nevertheless 2021 is on course to be the hottest year evah!
The Antarctic data make no sense to me. The continent is shown as warmer than usual, but most of the ocean surrounding it is colder. Yet the only way heat is transfered is by wind which over cold water is also cold. So where did the heat on the continent come from?
Suggestion. The map is based on very few measurements near human settlements. Or homogenised with a faulty reading included.
and the ongoing multiple volcanos emissions wont be making anything warmer either
Not just Germany. The UK as well. Not to mention France, where the grape season has been affected.
Trees in the UK which normally come into blossom at the start of April are in many cases still not out. And April has been an unusually cold month. Not that the Guardian has deigned to notice it. Though every time there is an unusually warm month they have front page notices and dire predictions that this is just the start, that we are seeing yet another example of the unfolding climate catastrophe due to what they call ‘global heating’.
“And April has been an unusually cold month. Not that the Guardian has deigned to notice it. Though every time there is an unusually warm month they have front page notices and dire predictions that this is just the start,”
They keep telling us it’s the “hottest month evah!” The Data Manipulating alarmists are reduced to using this trick because the temperatures keep getting cooler and not even NASA and NOAA are bold enough to turn a 0.7C cooling period, like we have had, into the “hottest year evah!”.
It’s pure distortion and propaganda coming out of NASA Climate and NOAA when it comes to Human-caused Climate Change. They have their dishonest thumbs on the scale and want all of us to be very scared. Not me. I can read a regional surface temperature chart. That calms me right down because the regional charts show we have nothing to worry about from CO2 and show CO2 is not the control knob of the Earth’s atmospheric temperatures. CO2 is up, Temperatures are down. Just the opposite of what the alarmists claim about CO2.
Just like the Democrats, if the Alarmists didn’t have the Leftwing Media Propaganda Organs on their side, they wouldn’t have anything at all. As it is, they have all the societal influence one could want but even so, climate change as a priority is at the bottom of all the polls.
The bees in australia (cant be manipulated by bs climate pr) told us we had colder weather in late spring and early summer
They eat the honey they had produced in August to stay alive during september october etc and again in early summer
honey output was down more than half
Impacts of cold events on agriculture, horticulture and apiculture will be claimed as impacts of warming. Give them a few days …
i was reading the transcript of mark steyn’s deposition in his everlasting suit with michael mann of hockey stick fame. in it he quotes an expert who says there are 30 year cycles of cold and hot. we are in the thirty year cold cycle which is borne out by these temperature stats.
The sky is warming. The sky is warming. These Chicken Littles make about as much sense as the premise for their role model.
Charles Rotter
Our coldest TMIN during April 2021, measured at home (30 km south of Berlin, Germany), was -3 °C, on April 4’s night.
We have a relatively cold spring, with strong winds coming from the Northwestern Atlantic.
And we never experienced such a heavy sequence of low pressure areas.
If you want to see really cold April temperatures for Germany, the best is to look at the top10 of an ascending sort of the list of all absolute TMIN temperatures for the country:
GME00131914 1986 4 13 -16.0 (°C)
GMM00010146 1996 4 12 -16.0
GME00121198 2003 4 7 -15.9
GME00121702 1956 4 8 -15.4
GME00123418 1986 4 13 -15.3
GME00128350 1986 4 13 -15.1
GME00128674 1952 4 3 -15.1
GME00128782 1956 4 8 -15.1
GMM00010146 1996 4 3 -15.0
GME00129946 1952 4 3 -14.8
{ The station GM000004155 (“Zugspitze”, in the German Alps) has been excluded because it is located near 3000 m altitude. }
This info by (No???)TricksZone is totally exaggerated.
Warmistas aren’t good for us; but Coolistas are even worse.
Best regards from Germoney
J.-P. D.
Another view at the 10 coldest April days, this time reported by the German weather station Berlin-Tegel (1936-2021):
GME00121150 2003 4 9 -6.8
GME00121150 1996 4 1 -6.7
GME00121150 1940 4 13 -6.1
GME00121150 1986 4 13 -6.1
GME00121150 2013 4 2 -5.8
GME00121150 1996 4 2 -5.4
GME00121150 2013 4 7 -5.4
GME00121150 1941 4 10 -5.0
GME00121150 2003 4 11 -4.7
GME00121150 1986 4 12 -4.5
(2021 isn’t in the list, no negative TMIN were reported by this station in April this year. Sure due to UuuuHI !)
J.-P. D.