Guest essay by Eric Worrall
France’s Le Pen Gains Ground for 2022 Elections, Poll Shows
By Angeline Benoit 11 April 2021, 20:43 GMT+10
- Le Pen is seen beating Macron in the first round in most cases
- Macron and two others could beat Le Pen in the final round
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is increasing her chances of winning the first round of next year’s presidential elections, according to an Ifop-Fiducial poll published by Le Journal du Dimanche.
The National Rally party leader would come first in six out of 10 scenarios in the first round if the ballots were cast this Sunday, the poll showed. She would then be beaten in the second round for the top two candidates, with 46% in a runoff against President Emmanuel Macron’s 54%, it said.
“The results reflect Le Pen’s strong dynamic as well as President Emmanuel Macron’s difficulties in the health crisis context,” Frederic Dabi, Ifop’s deputy general director, was cited as saying in Le Journal du Dimanche. “Never before, with only one year to go to the ballot, has a National Rally candidate obtained such scores.”
Even President Macron is not taking the Paris Agreement seriously – in February this year, a French court ruled France was failing to fulfil its Paris Agreement pledges.
Marine Le Pen is still very much seen as an outsider. French presidential elections are held in two rounds, with the strongest two candidates making it to the second round. Marine will almost certainly make it to the second round, but she will face an uphill battle to defeat the votes Macron or whatever other establishment candidate who makes it will command.
Nevertheless, the France 2022 election will be a real popcorn moment. If Le Pen is elected President, and if she follows her gut and tears up the Paris Agreement, President Harris could be in the delicious predicament of pledging allegiance to a climate agreement which even the host country has rejected.