Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to climate researcher Jen Purdie, even New Zealand with its abundance of windy mountains, geothermal sources and vast hydropower lakes cannot provide enough renewable energy for people to live in comfort and ease.
The author calls it “managing the demand”, but the message is clear.
As NZ gets serious about climate change, can electricity replace fossil fuels in time?
February 16, 2021 2.15pm AEDT
Jen Purdie
Senior Research Fellow, University of OtagoAs fossil fuels are phased out over the coming decades, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) suggests electricity will take up much of the slack, powering our vehicle fleet and replacing coal and gas in industrial processes.
But can the electricity system really provide for this increased load where and when it is needed? The answer is “yes”, with some caveats.
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It’s hard to get a sense of the scale of the new generation required, but if wind was the sole technology employed to meet demand by 2050, between 10 and 60 new wind farms would be needed nationwide.
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Managing the demand
As well as providing more electricity supply, demand management and batteries will also be important. Our modelling shows peak demand (which usually occurs when everyone turns on their heaters and ovens at 6pm in winter) could be up to 40% higher by 2050 than it is now.
But meeting this daily period of high demand could see expensive plant sitting idle for much of the time (with the last 25% of generation capacity only used about 10% of the time).
This is particularly a problem in a renewable electricity system when the hydro lakes are dry, as hydro is one of the few renewable electricity sources that can be stored during the day (as water behind the dam) and used over the evening peak (by generating with that stored water).
Demand response will therefore be needed. For example, this might involve an industrial plant turning off when there is too much load on the electricity grid.
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Read more: https://theconversation.com/as-nz-gets-serious-about-climate-change-can-electricity-replace-fossil-fuels-in-time-155123
What a miserable vision of the future. A future where energy is rationed. A future where if you try to turn on an appliance at the wrong time a government approved smart meter will nag you about the bill you will have to pay, or inform you that no clothes washing or dish washing machines are permitted be switched on until 2pm tomorrow, when the solar panels are online.
All of this is only a problem because the New Zealand government is fixating on unreliable zero carbon energy sources.
Even if you think CO2 emissions are important, there is an alternative which would not mess up everyone’s lives. New Zealand energy demand currently peaks at around 900MW, less than the output of a single large nuclear reactor.
One or two decent size zero carbon nuclear plants, and there would be no need for any of this. Modern nuclear plants are safe – even in Earthquake prone New Zealand, passive safe reactor designs like pebble bed, which are physically incapable of meltdown even with total coolant loss, would not cause a major radiological incident if the reactor was damaged by an Earthquake.
Affordable, reliable zero carbon electricity would be available 24×7, any time you flick a switch.
Update (EW): Finland, which has a GDP and population comparable to New Zealand, has four operational nuclear reactors and two new reactors under construction. Finnish electricity is around USD 0.186 / KWh, vs New Zealand USD 0.248. Finnish people are every bit as concerned about the environment as New Zealanders.
Correction (EW): h/t Chris Morris; New Zealand peak demand is around 6000MW, not 900MW, but they have a lot of hydro capacity. So they’ll likely still only need two to three nuclear reactors.
There will never be a shortage of expensive power options. The main, chronic shortage will continue to be energy policy intelligence. Some isolated markets like NZ can choose to fabricate a local market at their own expense. It goes on every day with labor market policy.
Progressives are always eager to cut other people’s lifestyles.
Only the reason changes.
Eric Worrell: “Even if you think CO2 emissions are important, there is an alternative which would not mess up everyone’s lives. New Zealand energy demand currently peaks at around 900MW, less than the output of a single large nuclear reactor. One or two decent size zero carbon nuclear plants, and there would be no need for any of this. Modern nuclear plants are safe – even in Earthquake prone New Zealand, passive safe reactor designs like pebble bed, which are physically incapable of meltdown even with total coolant loss, would not cause a major radiological incident if the reactor was damaged by an Earthquake. Affordable, reliable zero carbon electricity would be available 24×7, any time you flick a switch.”
Here in the United States, the NuScale SMR design is the furthest ahead by far in reaching full commercialization. A single NuScale SMR module supplies 77 MWe of electric power. A 12-module 924 MWe plant is slated for full operation in eastern Idaho in 2030.
In addition to their 12-module (924 MWe) solution, NuScale will be offering smaller power plant solutions in 4-module (308 MWe) and 6-module (462 MWe) sizes for grid-scale power generation needs.
Much work is now being done by NuScale and by its major investor Fluor to reduce the upfront capital cost of a NuScale plant from the currently projected $5000/kw to $3500/kw. Compare this with the AP1000’s current capital cost at Vogtle 3 & 4 of $14,000/kw.
Nuclear-grade quality assurance along with tightly-controlled fabrication requirements for safety class components are a very significant part of the capital cost of a nuclear plant. These requirements will not be reduced.
Moreover, the project management discipline needed to deliver nuclear-grade quality assurance is the same project management discipline needed to deliver all of the other key elements of any large-scale high technology construction project.
In addition to managing their nuclear project with an exceptionally focused approach to project management discipline, the NuScale team’s design philosophy controls capital costs by loading the most QA-dependent safety class components into the SMR module itself. The reactor core, the pressure vessel, the steam generator, and the containment vessel are all integrated into a single 77 MWe unit which can be fabricated offsite in a QA certified factory.
An illustration of their SMR module’s design is here.
A NuScale reactor facility doesn’t need to have all modules present for it to go live. A NuScale facility can start out with just one operational module and others can be added later as baseload demand increases.
The future of new-build nuclear construction in the United States now depends on the success of NuScale, Fluor, UAMPS, and Energy Northwest in proving that a nuclear project can be delivered on schedule and on cost.
As it concerns New Zealand, a single 12-module NuScale plant (924 MWe) could supply all of New Zealand’s current power needs. Alternatively, a 6-module NuScale plant could be placed on both the south and the north islands for an even more flexible power solution which totals 924 MWe.
What would a NuScale SMR solution cost for New Zealand?
Assuming that: (1) NuScale’s Idaho flagship project stays on track for cost & schedule; (2) a 6-module NuScale plant is placed on each main island for a total of 12 modules for the entire nation, and (3) the two New Zealand plants come on line in the mid 2030’s — then under these assumptions, my rough guess would be $10 billion USD in current dollars to make New Zealand’s electricity 100% carbon free by 2035, and with no impact on the current lifestyles the people living in that nation now enjoy.
Oopsie …. My remarks above must be revised based on what Chris Morris said in a comment below. Contrary to what I stated above, it is not possible for just one 12-module NuScale facility to supply all of New Zealand’s power needs.
Chris said this:
Here are the generation figures in MW for 20 February 2021 at 09:39:
North Island at 09:39 — Wind 148 MW, Hydro 657 MW, Geothermal 937 MW, Gas/Coal 447 MW, Gas 482 MW, Diesel/Oil 0 MW, COGEN 169 MW
South Island at 09:39 — Wind 34 MW, Hydro 1846 MW
Based on the updated and correct information from Chris Morris, I will say instead that if one limited one’s self to spending at most $10 billion USD in capital cost for nuclear generation in New Zealand, one could replace some good portion of New Zealand’s carbon-powered thermal generation with 12 NuScale SMR modules distributed as necessary to do both load following and baseload power generation.
The 12 SMR modules could either be ganged together in 4-unit, 6-unit, or 12-unit SMR facilities; or else could be distributed singely as 77 MWe individual small modular reactors placed wherever, and in whatever ganged configuration, it is best to place them.
The exact numbers and configuration’s of the NuScale facilities one could buy for that $10 billion USD (in current dollars) would require a detailed engineering analysis to figure out.
I am going to start exporting hair shirts to NZ. There appears to be demand.
“Water monopoly empire”, just with a slightly different form.
We have a bigger grid than indicated by Eric. It peaks about 6000MW and the low at night is around 3500MW. Historical maximum is just under 7000MW. There is an aluminium smelter drawing 530MW and that is maybe 10 times the size of the next biggest single user.
Big problem on the grid is the 2000MW ramp up every morning from 4am to 7am then winding down at night after about 10pm. All the thermal on the grid plus a lot of the hydro do the daily 2 shifting. We have a lot bigger frequency swings than other grids.
They are trying demand response but it even the big industrial (pulp and paper mills) it is only 20-30MW max.
Chris, this graph appears to indicate that New Zealand’s total generation output as it feeds into the grid in that nation, as stated in MW nominal output per generation type, is roughly in the range of 900 – 1000 MW. How does your comment square with this graph?
Chris”s numbers are consistent with other sites. Not everyone is good at making charts. My guess is that the author of the above chart wanted to use GWh as opposed to MW.
It appears you are correct. See the latest chart I just posted above.
I took this picture off the Transpower web page a few minutes ago. It is consistent with what Chris said above. Today on 20 FEB 2021 at 09:39, total generation is listed as approximately 4700 MW.
Thanks Chris.
Beta – that graph is a very poor one from Transpower, especially as the units don’t match the title What the Y axis is supposed to be is GWh per week- strange units but I suspect chosen to hide how unreliable wind is.
These two sites here give current info on NZ generation and spot prices.
Power System Live Data | Transpower
Energy Market Services – Electricity Market Overview (em6live.co.nz)
NZ has about 1000MW of geothermal on the grid. That is our equivalent of nukes, providing baseload power. There is maybe just 250MW of new generation that can be built. There is also a lot of must run hydro with minimum flows in the rivers. That accounts for a lot of the 4am load. It is dispatchable power than can reliably two shift that we need. Our hydro lakes have little storage and when it doesn’t rain for several weeks, the flows can be quite low. Wind is very good at giving power when its not needed. Same with solar. Heaviest demand is about 8am and 6pm on frosty winter days when a high is covering the whole country. Then it needs the thermal on the grid to do the heavy lifting.
New Zealand is in a unique position of having very limited supplies of fossil fuels and has to import much of what they need, at a disadvantage to their balance of trade. So, while being forced to look for local alternatives, they can appear to be ‘socially responsible’ with their forced virtue signalling.
They once benefited significantly from the tourist industry. However, the extreme reaction to COVID-19 has essentially killed that source of income to help with the balance of trade payments.
NZ is a delightful, scenic country. I have found the people to be friendly and curious about Americans. However, I’m concerned for them over what their leftist government is doing to their freedoms.
“New Zealand has in-ground COAL resources of more than 16 billion tonnes, of which 80% are lignite in the South Island. There are also substantial resources of sub-bituminous coal in both islands, and a lesser amount of high-quality bituminous coal, mainly on the West Coast of the South Island.”
fred250
See my remark at 10:51 am.
Don’t make the mistake of assuming The Greens want cheap, abundant, clean energy.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
Cheap energy is a window to unfettered growth of population and economic expansion.
They all want to be Coohagen (Ronny Cox), from the movie, Total Recall. He has the power of life and death over the Mars colony, by controlling the oxygen supply.
Control the energy/oxygen?
Control the populace.
Ain’t that purdy.
This is what every person who has serious sought to live “Off Grid” has learnt the hard way.
When you depend on weather dependant sources,you must adjust your life style to the availability of that energy.(To the weather)
Investing a large amount of money into a system that you are now the servant of.
Those batteries will fail very quickly unless you optimize their charging.
And the time of day when we traditionally go inside and play with electric toys,is usually the time of least solar and low wind..
Laundry becomes a strategic task.
However this kind of living is what gang Green wants to impose on us all.
Slavery is making a come back.
Cheap reliable power,to free us from the drudgery of so many mundane tasks,was a GOD sent gift to our Parents and Grandparents,many people alive today can remember “Rural Electrification” and the amazing amount of time it freed up.
There is no cure for stupid.
Can we form enclaves of sanity and banish the gulled,deluded,insane and malevolent to areas where they are free to inflict their ideology only on fellow travellers?
For I would love to see these people live what they preach.
After 40 years of their lies and shrieking,I want to see them suffer.
Enough Already.
“Laundry becomes a strategic task”
Depending on your family situation, your living situation (do you share a washing machine with other families?), laundry already is a strategic task today.
Any more stress on the system will lead to a few very unhappy people.
Still can’t wrap my head around why they are trying to do this. Their CO2 emissions are less than trivial on a global scale. THEY COUNT FOR NOTHING.
This seems to be a religious mania.
“a religious mania.”
That is the inescapable conclusion; our government have abandoned any pretence at science.
So what happens when we replace all our ICE vehicles with BEV’s. Right now any BEV added to the national fleet is a coal burner
But I’ve been told that we can power them at night with hydro from empty dams.
Quick correction. NZ’s power demand is about 9000MW, not 900MW. We need several nuclear stations, not just one
Thanks Peter.
Peter
It is about 10,000MW installed capacity, but almost all the hydro has about 150-200% of mean flow to try to fully utilise floods.
Our actual demand is a lot lower, about 45TWh a year and as far as I remember, demand has never gone over 6800MW.
Does anyone remember the movie beetllejuice. Well If beetllejuice had a wife. perhaps I shouldn’t say anymore.
Nuclear power in socialist New Zealand? Keep dreaming.
All successful western countries are mixed social/private enterprise.
NZ agriculture is less socialist than US or Europe where the state provides the subsidies.
Jen Purdie undermines her academic credibility by wearing a badge displaying her woke credentials in the form of a Maori greenstone koru pendant. From this act of virtue signalling one knows that she no longer feels the need to engage in critical thinking, and I guaranteee I could predict her every view. This is another sad indication of the left’s long march through the institutions.
Isn’t the Maori pendant a sign of cultural misappropriation? Or White Supremacy, as in “I’ll do whatever I please!”
That’s right. Cultural appropriation becomes virtue signalling if you’re woke.
More to the point, she is a hydrology modeller or was until just a year ago. How that morphed into climate researcher issomething only academia can answer.
Went to Seal Bay in NZ a while ago and it is an isolated and very picturesque stony and rocky beach with seals basking. You could be in the middle of nowhere chilling out – until – you turn around to the headland behind this sanctuary and see the huge blades of windmills whooshing around. Spoils the whole experience, and tourism is 20% of the NZ economy.
“tourism is 20% of the NZ economy.”
Correction, it was . Tourism in NZ is cancelled, especially when it involves air travel.
Sorry Eric, but you are wrong in this essay. NZ is already 85% renewable, and wind only makes up 10% of installed capacity and around 4% of actual energy. the government have proposed going to 100% renewable, and that will mean around another 1800 MW of installed wind generation. At 40% load factor that will give us an average energy from wind of 1000 MW (including the ones we already have). To buffer that they are investigating a large hydro pumped storage scheme of up to 1200 MW and 5 TWh of storage. I am currently working on modelling that project.
Nuclear is not suitable for New Zealand, simply because of the size of the units. We are a small country and all on one time zone, with no interconnection to any other grid. That means we have to self cover and have sufficient instantaneous reserve to cover the loss of the largest single unit on the system. At present that is a 400 MW combined cycle unit, and there are times that we struggle to have sufficient reserve, with the result that the unit has to be backed off. Imagine telling the operators of a 1200 MW nuke that they have to reduce to 380 MW due to lack of reserve. If we could get economical nuclear units smaller than 400 MW, I do think we would grab them. Our nuclear free legislation only applies to nuclear weapons, not nuclear energy.
You have also made an error in the cost of electricity to consumers in NZ. The actual energy component is around $0.10 per kWh. But added to that are transmission charges, network charges, security charges and tax. The end result is the consumer actually pays closer to $0.30 per kwh.