Many will be familiar with El Niño – the ocean-warming phenomenon that affects global weather patterns – but how about La Niña, which is linked to cooler sea temperatures?
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), La Niña is back in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, after nearly a decade’s absence.
This is expected to result in sea surface temperatures between two and three degrees Celsius cooler than average, said Dr. Maxx Dilley, Deputy Director in charge of Climate Services Department at WMO.
“These coolings of these large ocean areas have a significant effect on the circulation of the atmosphere that’s flowing over them. And the changes in the atmosphere in turn affect precipitation patterns around the world.”
Uneven effects
The likely results of La Niña vary around the globe, but indications are that the Horn of Africa will see below average rainfall, as will Central Asia.
Elsewhere, WMO’s weather models forecast above-average rainfall for Southeast Asia, some Pacific Islands and the northern region of South America.
The UN agency also warned that East Africa is forecast to see drier than usual conditions, which together with the existing impacts of the desert locust invasion, may add to regional food insecurity.
WMO says that there is a 90 per cent chance of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures remaining at La Niña levels for the remainder of the year, and a 55 per cent chance that this will continue through March next year.
This is important because La Niña contributes to temperatures, rainfall and storm patterns in many parts of the world.
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The official La Nina was not declared until 3+ months after La Nina like conditions were already affecting the ocean/atmosphere.
The ocean temperature in the Tropical Pacific doesn’t suddenly cool(or warm) to La Nina(El Nino) overnight………like the change of an air mass with the passage of a cold front.
It take months of gradual cooling(warming). During that time, the impact downstream on the weather grows more powerful with time as the temperature anomalies grow closer to reaching La Nina(El Nino)……. but it started months before the water temperature crossed the La Nina(El Nino) temperature threshold.
This was a huge factor in the drought out West, that increased this past Summer…….. which of course played a huge role in the wild fires.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59093/
By metmike – Oct. 29, 2020, 6:32 p.m.
“People continue to insist wrongly that this drought and the wildfires were caused by climate change………..calling them “climate fires.
Let me repeat this again.
Global warming/climate change causes the Pacific Ocean temperature to warm up. It happens in tandem with more El Nino’s, which is a warming at the surface in a key area of the Tropical Pacific.
El Nino’s cause MORE precipitation in much of the US. They help protect the US from droughts.
El Ninos= more precip/less droughts in the US = more frequent during global warming/less frequent during global cooling
La Nina’s = Less precip/more droughts in the US =less frequent during global warming/more frequent during global cooling
We are having a La Nina right now!
The US Cornbelt has had only 1 widespread severe drought in the past 32 years, in part because of this climate change. That drought was in 2012 and was started by the La Nina drought the previous year that spread east and ended late that Summer when ENSO readings moved into the El Nino side of Neutral.
The drought before that was way back in 1988, during a strong La Nina.
Only 1 drought in 32 years in this key location………..when that location should have seen around 4 droughts based on prior historical records from the “OLD climate.
Why is every drought headline news and from climate change but having the record least number of droughts in the highest corn/bean producing area of the planet not worth a mention?
El Nino’s help protect from droughts and there will be more El Nino’s and less droughts with global warming/climate change.
La Nina’s cause many widespread droughts. There are LESS of them during global warming/climate change. The drought which we have out West right now has been caused/worsened by La Nina conditions in the Tropical Pacific. This is the complete opposite of the affect of global warming and climate change.
You can’t blame something bad on a dynamic that actually helps prevent that something bad from happening.
This can’t be from climate change.
I hope this is clear because the opposite and wrong, anti science message is being told by……….EVERYBODY. “
‘Global warming/climate change causes the Pacific Ocean temperature to warm up’
There is no indication in the ocean temperature records, either ENSO or AMO that there has been any warming since 1880.
The warming seen since 1970 – 2000 is the transition from the cold phase to the warm phase of periodic (70 – 80 year) ocean temperature cycles.
“Global warming/climate change causes the Pacific Ocean temperature to warm up.”
A scientifically unsupportable statement. Why make it, except through dogma.
“Global warming/climate change”
Do you mean NATURAL climate cycles, or the fictitious human caused “climate changeᴸᴼᴸ”
fred250
November 2, 2020 at 11:58 am
“Global warming/climate change causes the Pacific Ocean temperature to warm up.”
“A scientifically unsupportable statement. Why make it, except through dogma.”
Fred,
I use another d word called Data, not Dogma.
There are loads of sources based on actual measurements. In fact, there are ZERO legit sources that show no warming of the Pacific.
I don’t agree with most of the negative impacts that we here about and am uncertain with regards to the % caused by humans……but the warming………..is the warming. It’s an indisputable fact.
At least some to even more than half of it came from the increase in CO2, unless you don’t believe in the laws of physics.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-surface-temperature
https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/ocean-warming
“Global warming/climate change”
“Do you mean NATURAL climate cycles, or the fictitious human caused “climate changeᴸᴼᴸ””
I didn’t differentiate in the discussion because nobody really knows what % should be assigned to what cause. There is no clear CO2 fingerprint to LONG TERM ocean warming that separates it from natural warming (that we can often see running in decadal cycles).
But the oceans are warmer than they were 100 years ago.
My main point in the discussion relates to the affect La Nina’s on the weather in the area of the US that is currently experiencing a drought.
Even somebody that believes that ALL the warming is coming from the increase in CO2 and its much worse than we thought(I think the affects are benefits) can’t blame this drought on man made climate change because global warming from humans or natural causes don’t increase La Nina’s…………….the correlation is in the opposite direction.
“But the oceans are warmer than they were 100 years ago.”
And THANK GOODNESS for that very slight warming
NOAA say some 0.08C in the last 60 years
SCARY !!!
And how would they know anyway !
“El Nino’s help protect from droughts…”
Keep in mind Mike that its the reverse in other parts of the world where droughts often accompany El Ninos, Australia for example.
Loydo says: Keep in mind Mike that its the reverse in other parts of the world where droughts often accompany El Ninos, Australia for example.
Thanks, this is correct. All my comments focused on US weather as I thought was clear.
“El Nino’s cause MORE precipitation in much of the US. They help protect the US from droughts.”
No, but this doesn’t make sense for those places like Australia…
“The drought which we have out West right now has been caused/worsened by La Nina conditions in the Tropical Pacific. This is the complete opposite of the affect of global warming and climate change.
You can’t blame something bad on a dynamic that actually helps prevent that something bad from happening.”
…where “something bad” like droughts are made made worse, not prevented.
“You can’t blame something bad on a dynamic that actually helps prevent that something bad from happening.””
You mean like blaming atmospheric CO2 for warming,
….. when all it does in enhance plant growth, preventing LIFE on this carbon-based planet from collapsing….
Is that what you mean ?
I heard someone a little while back that we will see the cold la nina water circulate around the globe. compared to the North Atlantic water the la nina is warm water there is no comparison between the two . Because the sst anomalies look a little bluer does not mean it will cool down the North Atlantic, most oceans seem to be cooling now and we could see a drop in global temperatures.
dh-mtl
November 2, 2020 at 10:56 am
“There is no indication in the ocean temperature records, either ENSO or AMO that there has been any warming since 1880.”
Actually, ALL the indications clearly show warming(long term) since 1880. See my previous posts.
“Actually, ALL the indications clearly show warming(long term) since 1880. See my previous posts.”
I made a post yesterday with a couple of links showing the ocean warming…………..that vanished. Here are a couple of other ones.
Whether you trust the source or have an opinion about how much of the warming was from the increase in CO2 or disagree with the amount of warming………. there should be no doubt in anybody’s mind that the oceans are warmer today than they were a century ago.
https://wxshift.com/news/graphics/el-nino-impacts-on-ocean-warming
“You can’t blame something bad on a dynamic that actually helps prevent that something bad from happening.””
You mean like blaming atmospheric CO2 for warming,
….. when all it does in enhance plant growth, preventing LIFE on this carbon-based planet from collapsing….
Is that what you mean ?”
No fred, that’s not the intended meaning. It referred to blaming the drought and wildfires likely a result of or enhanced by the current La Nina……..on human caused climate change.
We all know that human caused climate change is from global warming(some from humans) which features more drought suppressing El Nino’s.
Since climate change is part of the increase in drought suppressing El Nino’s…………it can’t be blamed for the drought enhancing La Nina that we have right now.
CO2 is the elixer of life.
Building block for life.
Beneficial gas, not pollution.
But it still plays a role in global temperatures……………which have been beneficially warming for most life.
“We all know that human caused climate change is from global warming”
Human caused climate change… LOL !!!
REALLY.. No evidence of that at all..
In what ways has the global climate changed in the last 50 years , that can be scientifically proven to be of human causation?
“But it still plays a role in global temperatures…”
Really ??
Do you have any empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2?
Amusing, isn’t it, that scientists claim to be able to model long-term atmospheric trends but can’t even explain what causes El Ninos and La Ninas and when they will occur.