The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has just released a tranche of new data about the coronavirus.
Far and away the most interesting statement is this one:
For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.
Now, per the same document, we’ve had 161,392 deaths WITH coronavirus up to August 22nd, meaning that the virus was detected either while they were alive or at autopsy.
But only 6% of those people actually died of the coronavirus alone … meaning that we’ve had about 9,680 people who died of Coronavirus-19.
And that is a nationwide death rate of 0.003% … and a before and after difference of 17 times. (see note- AW)
As for the rest of the fatalities, on average they had two or three “co-morbidities”, other diseases that might or might not have killed them.
Note from Anthony: Willis provided the base article, I made some enhancements to the title, the body, and made a bar chart. And to clear up some confusion about the initial title number (177% which was wrong, my bad), it is now 161392/9860 = 16.67 or ~17 times.
Ever since this disease became highly politicized–VERY early I might add–I lost trust for any accuracy regarding COVID-19 deaths under the belief that they are being significantly inflated.
It’s impossible to find clear information about the disease as you can find supposedly qualified scientists to back up nearly any contention much like happens with the social “sciences”. The only seemingly clear thing is that the aged and chronically ill are by far the most likely to have severe complications and death.
This isn’t the best way to look at it. The US through week 31 – which is not complete but close – the CDC has 156k confirmed Covid fatalities and 184k excess mortality above their expected baseline. Note this is the lowest point of the year for fatalities – if we compare to flu season the excess is only 86k. Regardless, a good portion of the excess deaths likely would not have happened without Covid-19. Some certainly are from lockdowns and attributed to Covid-19.
Now we know there are many excess deaths not accounted for – almost all of these were in March-May and mostly in the 6 NE states (NY/NJ/CT/RI/MA/PA) that account for a high proportion of total fatality. These would include cancer, overdoses, suicides and heart attack/strokes which are all running over season norms.
The CDC has a death certificate matching policy for states which does involve some inflation. Realistically the true Covid-19 fatality number – meaning if Covid were not here these people would not have died when they did – is probably between 110k and 150k. Lockdowns did the rest of the damage.
Now, most of those people died in nursing homes – where Covid-19 is a real killer. Ever the 9,000 with no comorbidity are very old regardless if they were in a nursing home. In the US, up to 110k people have died with Covid-19 in nursing homes. Some states report this data poorly; notably NY.
Hope this helps.
Take a look at Australia
Population slightly over 25 million
650 deaths from COVID-19 in 6 months.
That’s 26 deaths per 1 million over a 6 months period.
Does it make sense to shut down the whole economy?
Sounds like Climate Science “logic”.
From Australia…
Aspects of the lockdown do feel excessive, especially when you live on a border. But what we don’t know is how many deaths there would have been without it. What if we had matched Sweden? That would have meant 15,000 deaths, given Australia’s population is 2.5x Sweden’s. And the effect of that would have been social and economic problems, perhaps a later and even more severe lockdown, and lots and lots of recriminations about why we didn’t lockdown. Like, did it make any sense not to lockdown?
At least we are in a good position, with very few cases and deaths, for the economy to bounce back. And some key aspects of the economy, mining and agriculture, have been running along fine beneath the radar. Agriculture has been recovering from the big disasters of drought and fire, but with a wet La Nina season forecast, it’s looking good. Floods of course, but that’s life, just one d’md thing after another.
There are still counts of “excess” or “premature” deaths, which indicate Wuhan whatever is a bad thing to have around.
But it also shows that locking down otherwise generally healthy and formerly productive people is a bad thing to do in response.
Let’s compare the US to Swedish data. Sweden, a country of 10 million, suffered about 6,000 Covid-19 deaths. They seem to be reaching a “heard immunity” with daily cases sharp down.
I don’t know how Sweden reports Covid-19 deaths.Using the same methodology, the US should suffer about 200,000 deaths absent a better treatment (how does Sweden treat the virus?) or a vaccine. Maybe we are almost there – but there are definitely insufficient data.
George
There was not much incentive for Chinese people to fly to Sweden during the winter and airplanes were a primary way the virus spread from China.
Flights to Italy and NYC bringing in people from China explain why they were hit so hard.
Without looking at data I would guess West Virginia was not a popular destination for Chinese citizens flying into the US, compared with New York City.
Norway did well by shutting their borders.
The way epidemiologists will be able to retrospectively untangle all this will be the diminishment of natural death rates from other causes during this epidemic. The big 5 are: cancer, COPD, coronary artery disease, cerebral stroke, pneumonia. Each of these have fallen during the COVID-19 death counting.
We know most of the co-morbidities for COVID-19 risk: uncontrolled high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, immunosuppressed due to cancer treatments are probably the top 4. But a person doesn’t die from high blood pressure, the high blood pressure leads primarily to strokes and also cardiac hypertrophy. But if the person with high blood pressure dies of COVID-19 ARDS, then they won’t be around to die from a stroke or other high BP complications. So in each of the falling rates of death in these other causes, it will allow epidemiologists and health care experts to retrospectively estimate deaths from COVID alone.
By the reasoning used in this article, it would seem similarly that almost no one has ever died of AIDS. All those years of AIDS propaganda telling us how dangerous it is, when it turns out most “AIDS” patients actually die of things like the common cold!
Critical thinking, properly applied, is a beautiful thing. Improperly applied, not so much. It would behoove this site to keep its level of critical thinking above that used by the “Climate Crisis” crowd.
When I read this site I hope to see good science about the exaggerations associated with climate change. The pro-Trump nonsense and opinions about Covid 19 are not going to convert anyone. The site has lost its way.
Lol
I unfortunately tend to agree with you.
If it wasn’t for the pro Trump nonsense people you probably wouldn’t even be able to have a skeptical climate science opinion on the Internet. Does your side allow free speech anymore?
It might occur to you that belonging to a “side” is itself precisely the problem that infects the entire global warming issue. What should be a matter of hypothesis, evidence, and reason has become instead a marker of identity, and an official tribal religion.
The taking of sides is not particularly helpful. It should be as possible for a Democrat to believe that the evidence for CAGW is bunk as it is for a Republican to believe so. The idea that it is impossible to agree with the Democrats on matters of tax policy, foreign policy, etc., while simultaneously thinking that CAGW is nonsense is ridiculous. Similarly, there is no reason in the world why a person cannot both think that CAGW is nonsense and simultaneously also think that Trump is an ignorant, corrupt buffoon who has taken the wrong side on every other issue.
The cheerleading for Trump on this site , and the inclusion of “MAGA!” on seemingly every other article, unfortunately gives one the impression that this is a political issue for WUWT, rather than a purely scientific one, which in turn allows members of the competing CAGW tribe to shut their minds entirely to any and all evidence presented by skeptics.
The Democrats should be ashamed at the way in which they have bullied people, including members of their own party, from expressing the reasonable view that the CAGW hypothesis is not substantiated by evidence. However, it is similarly shameful and counterproductive for skeptics to allow themselves to be seen as motivated by anything other than reason. And if people posting on this site are, in fact, primarily motivated by their personal politics rather than by dispassionate analysis, then they are likely not thinking clearly or much worth listening to.
This is “red meat” for Willis Eschenbach !!!
– JPP
I think what it really comes down to is the basic fact that everyone is doing it differently and that’s the problem I have.
I mean, excluding China with laughable numbers, the rest of the world isn’t counting Covid deaths like the US or rather some are and some aren’t. This leads to my other issue with this in that the media has used the US numbers to attack Trump (or not in Cuomo’s case?!) over his handling while lacking the integrity to be like “well, China’s numbers are BS, but not every country is counting deaths like us, so it’s hard to tell what’s actually true anywhere!”
All I think this really leads to is no one has any idea what’s true anymore with this and that’s more “scary”. It’s definitely not that only 6% of deaths are actual Covid deaths as I think that’s an extreme overcorrection from what we’ve been told, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the real dead from Covid number in the US is only 20-40% of what’s been reported and the other 60-80% were severe comorbidities and advanced age that just about any severe flu or pneumonia would have finished them off. Honestly, like others have said, I doubt we’ll EVER really know the truth of the REAL death toll from this, but I’m almost certain we’ll never need a vaccine for this because it’s not even necessary (for most of the world at least).
We’re talking about a virus that 50% of us are already immune to due to cross-reactivity and I guarantee we’re quite close to reaching herd immunity already even with the lockdown nonsense (at least here in the States and Sweden is quite likely just a few percent off from finishing it off there) except in Europe, South Korea, and New Zealand. Europe will probably get there as well, but SK and NZ likely won’t and they’ll require a vaccine with the latter probably not really opening including tourism (30% of their economy!) until there is one while the rest of the world is already up and running just because human immunity is wonderful
America is a country of 300 million people. If we assume people live to 100 (unlikely) that would suggest 3 million deaths per annum and tragically almost all of these are old people – specifically those who are most likely to be covid victims! So even 150,000 is 5% of the background death rate. There is an expectation that each death can be put down to a specific cause but is that really the case. Consider the car accident mentioned in posts above. A person with severe heart disease is hit by a car and dies. Cause of death – car accident but what about if that person would not have died had they not had heart disease? They did not die from the car crash and they did not die from the heart disease, they died from the combination of the two. Both together caused the death and that I suspect is the case with the majority of Covid deaths. So how to estimate the true impact of Covid?
Seems to me the best way is to look at total death rate over the last 9 months and compare it with similar periods in previous years. How much higher is the death rate in the last 9 months and what is the standard deviation on death rates. Normally proof of an impact is taken as at least 2 standard deviations from the mean but even if we use simply 1 standard deviation, is the death rate more than 1 standard deviation above the period average? If not, how significant is it really?
No doubt some will consider such an analysis callous in the extreme, cold comfort to people who have lost a loved one. Yes at one level it is but there are times when one has to balance one evil against another. Agonising over each death can become a barrier to seeing the best path out of a quagmire that cannot be entirely avoided.
i cant even bother and will never be posting anything on this site anymore I made my anti lockdown views very clear and was told to take a hike/ And i wont either on Jo novas or Mocktons and the incredible ignorant Mosh and all his debunked climate crap that AWUT seems to allow for his incredible ignorant views on hydroxychloroquine and world temperatures re Berkely. I have to say that Jo anne nova should be held responsible for any suicides and deaths not related to covid in Australia as she has been pushing the lockdown scenario full on without any knowledge about viruses but I note that she has stopped publishing anything about the viruses lately so she is forgiven as she has realized that she may be held respoinsible indirectly for quarantine deaths. I would strongly recommendt that this site and other not make any staements about the coronaviruses and stick to climate as Mr Watts is a Meteorologist and not a expert in Viruses whereas I am. cheers and enjoy life while you can. But of course Mr Watts you may continue to publish whatever you want about coronaviruses cheers
Whoa Eliza
I am with you 100% on the lockdown. It’s been crazy stuff. But blaming individuals for the fallout is not right.
These people are terrified. You dont get it, I dont get it. But the fact is, they are sh!t scared
I didn’t tell you to take I hike. I enjoy your opinion. I agree that Mockton admonished anyone who disagreed with him. Mosh…well he is entertaining
Eliza there is nothing in your long comment that even suggest you are a virus expert. If you are such an expert I wish you would have left us with a brief summary of your advice. We all realize the COVID pandemic is still in progress so there are no COVID experts yet … but there are virus experts in the world.
Lockdowns made sense for sick people, and idolatong very vulnerable elderly retired people. Lockdowns for young people and children is not backed by science. Even the six foot social distancing is not backed by science. The use of masks is backed by science simply to reduce the spray distance when an infected person sneezes or coughs. Not a great benefit but better than not wearing a mask. Seeing others wearing masks reminds me to social distance. If people think wearing masks means social distancing is not required, they are fools.
I’ve told Eliza I have a degree in Microbiology with two prizes, and was also published in a peer reviewed medical journal on genetic research. None of which proves anything other than that Eliza is aggressive, impervious to any polite personal replies or evidence, and utterly wrong.
I have and will continue to do my best on the Covid pandemic, sorry if it’s not what some people want to hear. Climate believers have been trying to harrass me to stop me saying what I think for years. Doesn’t work.
I would have hoped that skeptics, of all people, could maintain a civil debate?
BTW: If I was in charge of Australian infection control we wouldn’t have needed a lockdown at all. I warned the WHO advice was wrong by Feb 3. Called for border control from Feb 9. Predicted factories and schools would close in a month on Feb 16. It was obvious what was coming. We could have avoided so much pain just by working from first principles of virology.
As for suicides: https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/no-increase-to-victorian-suicide-rate-during-covid-19-pandemic-20200827-p55pr9.html
Jo Nova in 2020 has the best climate science website in the world. At first I thought there were too many COVID articles but they were high quality too.
I’ve been reading climate science artickes and studies since 1987, read over a half dozen climate websites every week, and have had my own climate science blog since 2014, with over 60,000 page views. I believe I am qualified to judge the high quality of the material on the Jo Nova website. …. Eliza is a dingbat, just ignore her.
:- ) Made my day Richard. Thank you.
The CDC has provided more data on the ‘deaths with’ versus ‘deaths from’ Wuhan virus debate. The answer is not black and white As implied here. The new ‘deaths from’ gives a CFR floor, caused indisputably by ARDS and easily diagnosable by a ‘ground glass’ lung chest Xray.
But the real number is something unknowably higher (and provably NOT total ‘with Covid-19’ deaths) where COVID-19 caused a Co-morbidity death ‘with’, but that woild not have otherwise occurred at that time, butbrather sometime (years?) later.
I personally think a lot of the diabetes, hypertension, and obesity comorbidities fall into that grey zone, since diabetes and hypertension can be controlled with drugs and obesity is seldom a cause of death per se.
Should have added, the best approximation to the ‘true’ Covid-19 number is the CDC ‘excess deaths’ data by week for years, easily available on line searching “CDC excess deaths”.
People die all the time, from old age or morbidities. There is some seasonality thanks to stuff like imperfect flu vaccines. When deaths exceed statistical expectations for a week or month, they are ‘excess’ and in 2020 certainly caused by Covid-19. I have not integrated the 2020 cumulative excess curve (the CDC version of that exercise appears mathematically funky and high based on their own charts) but eyeballing it estimates something over half of reported COVID-19 deaths. And a lot more than just ‘from without comorbidities’.
Ground glass opacities are also caused by mechanical ventilation. Here’s an example (see link). The chest x-ray on the left is a patient on conventional ventilation (AC/VC mode). The white cloudiness, or ground glass opacity, is inflammation. The photo on the right is the same patient 3 hours after the ventilator setting was changed to APRV (airway pressure relief ventilation; allows spontaneous breathing). Notice how much clearer the lungs are. All it took was a simple mode change. APRV isn’t used very much and no studies have ever been done to determine if conventional or APRV is better. But a person with covid who ends up on a ventilator will most likely be receive conventional ventilation, and severe lung inflammation as a consequence.
https://twitter.com/EPKnott/status/1298406139688779778
Here’s another example. Left, ground glass opacities on chest xray of patient on AC mode ventilation; right, same patient 24 hours later after switch to APRV mode. There’s no question that conventional ventilation produces lung inflammation and activates systemic inflammatory pathways via biotrauma. btw, APRV is similar to BiPAP.
https://twitter.com/CalHarrell/status/1298447902055047169
Most severe covid isn’t typical ARDS. It can, and does, progress to typical ARDS after mechanical ventilation, though. This intensivist calls it pseudoARDS.
ARDS vs. pseudoARDS – Failure of the Berlin definition
https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/pseudoards/
Mr willis Eschenbach was 100 percent correct all the time
thought you were not gonna post here anymore??
Willis is clueless and so are you Eliza.There are no SARS2 experts until the pandemic is over and data are analyzed for accuracy. Not likely in 2020. Meanwhile, anyone can jump to a conclusion.
Simple numeracy; 161,392 is a 56% increase over 9,680 or “overestimate”.
The typical error is to call a new figure which is twice the original a 200% increase; it is only a 100% increase in the same way that a 0% new measure is exactly a 100% decrease.
At the risk of spoiling the fun….
I wrote my first “serious” computer code in high school – a medical billing app which I sold to a handful of doctors’ offices. Later I wrote a full claims processing app for a multispeciality practice group, and still later constructed risk-sharing contracts with BCBS on behalf of a large “IPA” … so sadly, I know the weeds in this area. Here’s what’s going on:
SARS-COV-2 doesn’t PER SE kill anybody – we don’t see organ failure, or brain death, etc from the presence of the virus itself, reproducing in the usual virus way – “hijacking” ribosomal replication inside of cells. What DOES kill is hypoxia from clogged lungs (actually, most common in Covid is clogged alveolar capillaries, not the alveolar space itself). This is caused by a surfeit of Von Willibrand’s Factor, a clotting agent released from arterial wall cells due to hyperoxidative stress, which is brought on by stearic hindrance of the ACE2 receptor by that damn virus.
In other words, it’s a “side effect” of the virus. In an analogous fashion, the HIV virus doesn’t directly kill – but it does muck up the immune system, which allows other diseases (like a common one in AIDS patients, Kaposi’s Sarcoma) to run roughshod … and THEY kill the patient.
So what’s that got to do with this data? Well, the data is Cause Of Death coding using ICD-10 diagnosis codes. What the tables at CDC show is ALL the codes cross-tabulated with “Covid” – the generic “patient is infected with SARS-COV-2” moniker. If the patient also had diabetes, that’s coded – it’s a comorbidity. If the patient also had a coronary infarction, that’s coded too. In principle there could be many codes, and it’s pretty messy, and often inconsistent across coders and standards in different areas.
Point is … what the “Covid only” category represents is incomplete coding. Here “Covid” is a Cause Of Death in the same way as “Old Age” is – nothing specific on WHAT exactly happened. Did they stop breathing (respiratory arrest)? Heart stopped (coronary infarct)? Stroke? Hypoxia due to pneumonia (a condition, not a disease per se)? It’s a MESS.
So bottom line … bad coding to “only” list Covid. There’s no code for “Dunno” but it’s not uncommon for coding to be succinct (“gunshot wound”) and not detailed (“apoxia due to blood loss”) as to the PROXIMAL cause of death. Sorry to spoil the fun … but based on my experience in the hell hole of organized quasi-governmental medical coding standards, that’s all this represents: Bad coding. Thanks.
The only problem with your ‘bad coding’ analysis is that if all of the ‘fell off ladder’ deaths went to zero
and the number of ‘hit by invisible meteorites’ went up to the ladder deaths number
you would be forgiven for thinking that one was being labelled as the other.
So its not ‘Bad Coding’ . It’s redirected coding
for example, in the UK. Flu deaths have fallen, Covid deaths have risen. But Covid deaths plus flu deaths equal what flu deaths used to be.
Good point (and the others, too … thanks guys) …
I didn’t give a fully fleshed out post cuz that would take forever … it’s such a freakin’ mess. My initial reaction was and remains mostly that – it’s a hot mess. And it’s a direct result of the coding system and lack of consistency in its application.
Covid and … Covid and … Covid and … (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCxcU-kPwho)
Anyway, yeah without greater detail on what CAUSED, as in “why did they die, describe the last minute of life … what exactly was going wrong THEN” … coding Covid and (eg) Diabetes is about as useful as coding Covid and Aquarius. Hmmm having an “air sign” yes true correct … but HOW did it “help” result in death? Was it a February birth? February was notoriously unlucky to the Romans.
Might as well say a Cause was “Motorcycle accident and Diabetes” … I suppose the Diabetes COULD result in slower reaction time and yes … studies have shown that low blood sugar OFTEN IS ASSOCIATED with misjudging corners. But if the cause was rapid deceleration … well.
It’s different with functional codes such as Respiratory Failure. At least we can picture that eh.
So the CDC table has possible-distal-cause codes mixed in with proximal-cause codes UGH.
Throw in the demographics and I agree the only real measure in the end will be Excess Deaths – and even that’s imperfect (Plato? You out there?) – the weak flu season of 2018/19 left more “canaries” around, just waiting for Covid at the bus stop. From a colleague in Sweden – their annual Excess was running hot at over 5000, but is already down close to 3000 and the bar bets are whether it will be outside a 95% noise band by year’s end. I bid a dozen ciders on NO … just for the heck of it.
Anyway, humor attempts aside … another valuable lesson to be squirmed out of by politicians – NEVER let “Experts” run the show. Seems the only truly important, vital, stop the presses and the economy, the world, and life sort of events happen in THEIR FIELD, after all … right?
Sound familiar?
ALL CAPS is just my shorthand for italics btw. Cheers all!
Flu death never meant anything. There is no widespread testing in Europe.
Flu doesn’t mean anything. It’s INFLUENZA.
In France, estimated death from influenza is 6000 to 10000 per year. Exact count is around 80 in a BAD year. That’s eighty cases not thousands.
As a rule no estimate is close to any other estimate. Nobody knows!
..just no post mortem….and no length of time in the hosp
quite a few people die suddenly….no post mortem….they are listed as covid only
JSMill, interesting comment. I suspect that, in general, I see what you are saying and I can see where, given more time to review, I may be able to be convinced by your full argument.
In view of that, and that fact that we cannot do anything about our past nationwide shutdown, do you sense — with the current incomplete comprehensive understanding of all which can be known from the available data — that our continued or any further nationwide Covid-19 shutdowns remain justified, or, that MOST LIKELY this is not the prudent to do … or, something different?
Thanks, Johnny …
I’d say based on the available data from where I’ve been consulting …BCBS in Ohio, especially the PRISON DATA (where we COULD have had fantastic insight were the Dept of Health and Prison Bureau not completely incompetent, and callously indifferent btw), CDC, Sweden, etc, etc, etc …
END ALL LOCKDOWNS NOW, tell anyone “vulnerable” GET READY … blast a “scorecard” for risk assessment on all the airwaves … be realistic. That’s a tall order – do something SIMPLE but do it well – from the clown-show of “experts” handling this whole thing. We (myself and a handful of docs) had a rudimentary scorecard in the works back in FEBRUARY, off the cruise ship data.
BTW follow up on the cruise ships found about half the elderly are asymptomatic when infected, about 90% of the young are, and kids under 14 … it bounces right off. UNLESS they’re already “sickly” eh … so to continue the insensitive language we use around the docs – all the CANARIES need to stay away from everybody else, and let it rip. Basically the plan from February.
The shutdowns were detrimental, in my estimation. Books will be written about this, of course. Question is how many will nail the correct conclusion (in my estimation): The clusterf**k that results when “we” turn to the “top minds” in pretty much any field, as authoritative – without a constant, front-of-mind, string around the finger AWARENESS of a simple fact: To them, their field is the most important thing in the whole damn world.
In other words, they’re BIASED as to the value of “solving” the problem they’ve devoted THEIR life’s work to “solving” (scare quotes cuz most are actually insoluble in an absolute sense). And so here we are, discussing what happens when this is done with an epidemic, on a forum focused on issues that have arisen due to making the same mistake with “climate change.”
Tunnel Vision … (or as the experts in psychology call it, Cognitive Bias).
We had do destroy your life in order to save it. Yeah….
On the same track, in actuality the 6% are Likely people that COVID didn’t kill, they were the ones that cause of death was unknown. The rest COVID triggered their death with actual final cause listed.
What’s most interesting to me was the 0-24 age group, 330 total died, the average flu season would be much worse for that age group, so why close schools? Because the teachers might be at risk? Then close all the supermarkets and anywhere else that people have to come in contact with others.
Come on Bob. Close the supermarkets?
Maybe we should make the supermarket workers teach school 😡
Derg
I am for that! it comes down to school teachers having too much control over the schools, why because of the unions and their contributions to political parties. public unions should never have been allowed to exist now they have warped are system and there is no turning back, unless we have school choice.
Bob,
YES … as an early advocate of the “hardcore shelter/protect the vulnerable and let it rip” aka Sweden School (after cruise ship data and especially prison data) … and the FearStream News out there blaring the apocalypse … I had to bring it up “in jest” on a call – CLOSE EVERYTHING, IT’S TOO DANGEROUS. Get the truck drivers on board to STAY HOME, and WEEAAAR A MAAAYSK … and after about three days, the Downtown Condo Karens would have been umm, motivated to listen a little more closely as to the havoc being wreaked on “nonessential” people.
/end rant/
Back to the grind …
“This is caused by a surfeit of Von Willibrand’s Factor, a clotting agent released from arterial wall cells due to hyperoxidative stress, which is brought on by stearic hindrance of the ACE2 receptor by that damn virus.”
More than likely the increase in VWF is due to barotrauma and biotrauma caused by mechanical ventilation (MV). MV causes elevated cytokine IL-6 levels which reduces serum ADAMST13, which normally cleaves VWF to control clotting. Reduced ADAMST13 results in increased clotting.
Clarification: Some of the increase, not all of the increase. Any inflammation will cause VWF to increase, so covid is likely responsible for some of the increase. But MV, best case, exacerbates the situation.
Good point, icisilc – tho I’d refine that out a bit as an “additional” factor. No MV needed to get the VWF elevation due to hyperoxidative stress due to ACE2 inhibition causing AT-11 elevation (and exacerbated by a priori oxidative stress w/ eg diabetes, cv disease, etc) … so your observation rings MANY bells and I’m going to bring it up with my key “science nerd” (his term) pulmonologist. The MV “paradox” particular to the low compliance patients … left-right shunting … I’m going to have to ask him as I’m not a clinician. But I think you’re on to something.
Why am I thinking of the old saw “The operation was a success, but the patient died” right now…? Hmmmm….
Notice how countries like the United Arab Emirates have a low COVID-19 death figure. They also have a very low percentage of the population 65 and older. This proves the folly of lockdowns when those who are younger and make up the bulk of the work force are at a very low risk. I predict that it will take a decade or two to reverse the economic damage caused by politicians and the academic experts advising them.
Yes, and Peru has one of the strictest lockdowns throughout and also is among countries with the highest death rates. Police raids on “illegal parties” have been deadly.
Canada has reported ~9500 deaths with 10% of US pop. The gov here didn’t do anything about blocking flights, etc. and until the Prime Minister’s wife contracted it. The US reacted more quickly in blocking flights from China and Europe. Certainly ‘sinistral’ US politicians had more powerful reasons for inflating deaths in the US. The real number is less than 90,000 (half earlier tallied) and probably more than 50,000 (a standard flu mortality).
It looks like Robert Kennedy Jr and his group were correct and even a tad conservative.
The CDC is over counting covid-19 deaths by 90%
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/if-covid-fatalities-were-90-2-lower-how-would-you-feel-about-schools-reopening/
So where are all the people who are not dead?
tis misattributation, you dingbat 🙂
I like the notion expressed earlier about ‘excess deaths’ being a key statistic. However, if COVID is just pushing the elderly and vulnerable with comorbidities ‘over the edge’ then we should see deaths next year under the average. If so, it will be interesting who gets credit for the reduction – incoming Democratic administration, or re-elected Trump administration. Stay tuned…
Here in Western Canada, where our local economies have been severely crippled by initial government measures to slow the spread, very few people are falling ill enough to be hospitalized. In the province of Alberta, which has a population of 4.371 million, there are currently 44 people in hospital with COVID-19, which seems like a low number for a disease that ostensibly threatens us all. What our government leaders are doing now is shouting about case numbers, which is irrational. A healthy twenty year-old who tests positive is put in the same category as an 85 year-old with emphysema, case numbers must be presented with accompanying breakdowns in the their distributions by age. Which is not being done, because it would dilute the alarm that governments still want to keep alive.
My own suspicion is that all this hysteria arose because researchers decided to base their initial predictions of the impact of the disease on extrapolations from the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918. By the time it had become obvious that this idea was wrong, governments had already committed to drastic and profoundly harmful measures to suppress the spread, and could not back off and admit that they had been wrong.
How will all this end? It will just fade away, as more and more people come to realize that the severity of the disease has been misjudged, and hyped by the media. It will just go away, as more and more businesses and schools open without great harms. Unfortunately this will take at least a year.
Here’s an update of CDC data.
Not much has changed.
Start close to home, Colorado.
Denver, Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have more Covid-19 deaths than the ENTIRE rest of the state.
That takes some kind of special (BLUE) talent.
The top ten counties for Covid-19 deaths account for 90%!!! of them.
How is Covid-19 a state-wide problem??
Six states are responsible for over half of the Covid-19 deaths. That’s more than the ENTIRE rest of the country.
That takes some kind of special (BLUE) talent.
The top ten states account for over 2/3rd of Covid-19 deaths.
In five states Covid-19 is a significant cause of death. In the other states – not so much.
How is Covid-19 a national problem???
The 75+ demographic at 58.4% accounts for more Covid-19 deaths than the entire rest of the population. Expanding to include the 65+ accounts for almost 80%. Adding the 55+ accounts for over 90%.
The 24 years and under demographic accounts for 0.02% of the Covid-19 deaths.
The young and healthy demographic is not threatened by Covid-19.
How does the data support the notion that Covid-19 is a wide-spread, highly contagious and lethal pandemic?
Answer: It doesn’t ‘cause Covid-19 is a scam-demic to assert control, trash civil liberties and push political agendas.
Blue is correct of the all the states with a per capita death rate over the us average all but 1 of 14 are democrat run states with NJ and NY being the worst at a clip 3 times or more the us average.
People in urban areas often ride on crowded trains and busses. Social distancing on many streets would be impossible. Infected people flying in from China were much more likely to land in NYC than in Idaho.
I’ve seen the responses to this information. Hasn’t made one bit of difference to the panic-mongers.
Not news – to me. I’ve been following CDC for months.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Go there and look at their spreadsheet headers. It was there all along.
I know how much some of y’all dislike actual data/science, but I’ll press on regardless.
Here’s an update of CDC data.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nicholas-schroeder-55934820_covid19-facts-pandemic-activity-6703695406045515776-MH7Q
Not much has changed.
Start close to home, Colorado.
Denver, Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have more Covid-19 deaths than the ENTIRE rest of the state.
That takes some kind of special (BLUE) talent.
The top ten counties for Covid-19 deaths account for 90%!!! of them.
How is Covid-19 a state-wide problem??
Six states are responsible for over half of the Covid-19 deaths. That’s more than the ENTIRE rest of the country.
That takes some kind of special (BLUE) talent.
The top ten states account for over 2/3rd of Covid-19 deaths.
In five states Covid-19 is a significant cause of death. In the other states – not so much.
How is Covid-19 a national problem???
The 75+ demographic at 58.4% accounts for more Covid-19 deaths than the entire rest of the population. Expanding to include the 65+ accounts for almost 80%. Adding the 55+ accounts for over 90%.
The 24 years and under demographic accounts for 0.02% of the Covid-19 deaths.
The young and healthy demographic is not threatened by Covid-19.
How does the data support the notion that Covid-19 is a wide-spread, highly contagious and lethal pandemic?
Answer: It doesn’t ‘cause Covid-19 is a scam-demic to assert control, trash civil liberties and push political agendas.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/?fbclid=IwAR3U3Kzu9YI3OcWejpZSpuv-iH2SC378E-_qMjq4KvX43P6ZVaC0hmK_7Jk
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Here is/are some more CDC data.
The lying, fact free, fake news media is absolutely anal about the number of positive cases.
They don’t mention out of how many tests or which states have the most positives.
Or how many of those positives died. (175,000/10,000,000 high=1.75% or 175,000/5,000,000 lo=3.0%)
So, here is a graphic that shows those stats.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nicholas-schroeder-55934820_testing-positive-covid19-activity-6706260206831177728-Elvq
Six states have over 50% of the positive tests. Four of those states also account for most of the deaths,
The top 15 states account for over 75% of the positive tests. This includes the other two top death states.
Looks like a personal problem for those (BLUE) states and not a national problem.
O.K. snip away.
The other issue is the rules for assessing the cause of death in the USA were conveniently changed in about March this year. Prior to that the rules used, had been in place unaltered since 2003. The rule change had a massive effect on the death toll —much higher. ( I think the UK made similar changes but I stand to be corrected on that. But they are correcting their figures at the moment.)
These guys came out with similar results to the revised CDC figures.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/if-covid-fatalities-were-90-2-lower-how-would-you-feel-about-schools-reopening/
Do not forget the Italians a reanalysis of their data a couple of months ago and found only 12% of death could be directly attributable to Covid19.
Here’s a paper that mixes the climate with the coronavirus. It proposes an “intergenerational” contract between young and old.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/corona-and-the-climate-a-comparison-of-two-emergencies/AE382384C616E5707064066B5065DD4E
The contract is essentially this. The young say to the old, “agree to believe and support our climate agenda – we’ll know if you’re pretending – or we’ll give you coronavirus. Change your minds and join our cause or cough spit you’re dead.”
For their common future, both generations should enter a social contract (Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen, 2011) that is based on mutual solidarity. In such a Climate Corona Contract, the younger generations would agree to protect the elderly and other at-risk groups from COVID-19 by adhering to restrictions, such as physical distancing measures. Conversely, the older generations would vow to rigorously implement measures to keep global warming between 1.5°C to 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels in line with the Paris Agreement signed by most governments.
As policy, it is immoral to scr3w the young to protect the old. The young are the future. This virus is much less visious for the young than the common HxNx flu viruses, and for that we should be thankful. I am sure my parents, if still alive, would agree with this. Your future is in your children, and to impovish them is immoral. Why bother with all the effort of raising them if you are going to scr3w them in midlife.
Fran
Given the choice of scr3wing young or old, which would you choose? But that’s not the point. The entry of “scr3w” into your argument means that you have been brainwashed (less fun). The only real changes to earth’s biosphere caused by CO2 are positive ones so far. Plant growth is being universally enhanced because of photosynthesis (Google is your friend).
Have you ever heard of ice ages? Did you ever come across mention of them on Instagram? Get this – we’re in one, right now. The earth is almost the coldest it has been in the history of multicelled life. A few degrees of warming are of no real consequence.
Reflect on the catastrophic extent of your brainwashing and mental enslavement which has brought you to the point where you can look at the biosphere and consider mild warming in an ice age and plant CO2 enrichment, in a period of mild CO2 starvation, as being “swr3wed”. You need to take quite a few steps back and think again about where you are getting your information from. Something is not necessarily true just because it is on Instagram.