The Safety of Outdoor Air for #Coronavirus Is Now Obvious

Another one reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

There is now powerful observational evidence that outdoor air is extraordinary safe regarding COVID-19, and the recent protests have helped provide it.   The protests/riots began in Seattle and other cities on May 26th.  Thousands gathered without social distancing and a good 10% had no masks.  They participated in chanting, singing, screaming and other activities that ensured plenty of droplets were injected in the air, and that unhealthful environment was “enhanced” by coughing from tear gas and other agents.

Did this huge exposure result in increased spread of COVID-19?  The answer is clearly no.
Consider Washington’s King County, a hotbed of protests starting 26 May (see below).  Both hospitalizations and deaths showed no  upward spike after the protests (the blue line shows May 26th).  We should have seen a signal by now, since the average time to symptoms is approximately five days.

It is important to note that the number of COVID-19 cases is going up modestly in King County, but that is being driven by a near doubling of tests (note that the bottom graph starts earlier).  Much of the media neglects to note the importance of increased testing in finding more cases.

This lack of a coronavirus spike has been noted in every major city in the U.S., something discussed in the Seattle Times today and in many media outlets.

These are huge number of independent experiments in varying environments and climates.  A very good sample. And the obvious conclusion is that COVID-19 has a very difficult time spreading in outdoor air.  There is no other explanation.
Some of you might argue that many of the protestors were young and so would not get very ill.  True enough.  But young people can get sick from it and they could certainly give it to their parents, neighbors, and folks in food stores and restaurants.  There were plenty of teenagers and folks in their early 20s still living at home who were at the protests.
You want more evidence?  No problem. About a month ago, there was a huge media commotion about “irresponsible” outdoor parties at Missouri’s Lake of the Ozarks (see picture below from the famous “party cove”.  Several media outlets promised a huge uptick in COVID-19 cases.

What actually happened?  Nothing.  No spike of COVID-19 cases in the neighboring counties.  Outdoor air is safe.

________________________________________________________________________________

The lack of outdoor transmission is consistent with the scientific literature.  There is in fact no documentation of effective outdoor transmission of coronavirus (see my earlier blog for documentation).    Some examples of scientific papers discussing the issue, include:

Qian et al., 2020:   Examined 1245 confirmed cases in 120 cities in China and identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. 
Nishiura et al., 2020:  Transmission of COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment (95% confidence interval).

The reasons for a lack of outdoor transmission are clear:

  • Virus concentration are low outdoors because of the tremendous dispersion of the virus in the outside environment.  This results in low viral concentration.  
  • Solar radiation rapidly kills the virus.
  • Higher humidity in the outside air is bad for transmission.
  • Social distancing is much easier outside.

We have folks going outside with great fear, even wearing masks when they are alone or distant from others.

The other day I was biking down the Burke Gilman trail and an older women saw me coming and fled off the trail, pushing her mask tight around her mouth as she turned to face away from me.  There was profound fear in her eyes and it was completely unnecessary.  Really bothered me.

And such fear is being stoked by local politicians and governments.  The City of Seattle parks STILL has many of the parking lots closed and threatening signs everything.

Completely inconsistent with scientific evidence and even the Mayor’s Office’s own statement on the lack of transmission during the protests.  Talk about being anti-science and irrational.

Take a look at the welcome provide by Seattle Parks and Recreation for Magnuson Park, one of the city’s jewels.  Why does the Mayor allow this situation to continue?  City parks should be completely opened.

_______________________________________________________

Additional Material

One commenter noted that percentage of positive test are increasing recently, indicating viral spread.  This is true.  But as shown by the plots of positive percentiles for Washington State (and daily tests), the rate of positives fell for WEEKS after the protests (which started at the time of the blue line).  The minimum was in mid-June.  The positive percentage is a very fast reacting measure of increase of COVID-19 transmission and there is NO hint of a surge with the advent of the protests.  More recent rises, in WA and for most of the country, are associated with lessening of restrictions and lockdowns.

PS:  Wearing masks is a very, very good thing if you are indoors.   More than a good thing– necessary in all public indoor spaces.

138 thoughts on “The Safety of Outdoor Air for #Coronavirus Is Now Obvious

  1. “The positive percentage is a very fast reacting measure of increase of COVID-19 transmission and there is NO hint of a surge with the advent of the protests. More recent rises, in WA and for most of the country, are associated with lessening of restrictions and lockdowns.” So what methods were used to determine that those cases came from lessening of restrictions? The two Missouri hairstylists who were crucified by the media were indoors and they didn’t seem to transmit the Chicom virus either.

    • Cliff Mass’ look at the DC stats are interesting. It would be informative to look at some states where there is large growth: the southern states : Florida, Texas, NM and Californicate. How does their case growth compare to BML mayhem and testing stats?

      I’d been thinking of digging into this but been busy elsewhere.

      • The liberal news is screaming about Florida “cases”…over 10,000
        first off….cases is not sick people

        and if the media has access to how many “cases”…they have access to how many tests

        Florida doubled the amount of tests….no wonder the number of cases doubled

        https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/

        • Florida’s positivity rate (18.14%) has increased consistently since Memorial Day weekend (2.35% at that time) and accelerated after Phase II opening on June 5 (4% at that time) so you can’t simply dismiss people’s concern about the virus impact and attribute it solely to being mislead by ‘the liberal news’ ‘screaming about Florida “cases”‘.

          http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ (scroll down to Daily COVID-19 Test Positivity Rate/day, highlight Florida, and display 1 week average).

          • New York has had 422,000+ total cases and 32,246 deaths. Florida now has 200,000+ total cases and 3,731 deaths. The outbreak in Florida is certainly very different from the outbreak in New York for some reason.

          • Craig,
            I notice you did not address the issue that if you test more, you will find more positive cases. Assuming that infection rates are relatively stable, if you perform 2x more tests, you should expect to get 2x more positive results. That is not something to panic about.

            Also, COVID-19 exposure is not equivalent to a death sentence, even if you are in one of the higher risk groups. If you are young and healthy, you have very little to fear. I’m tired of people telling me that not wearing a mask in public makes me a murderer.

          • The difference between the New York and Florida outbreaks can be attributed to timing, treatments and (age) demographics.

            Florida’s surge began more than two months after New York’s surge enabling Florida medical professionals to expeditiously utilize the most effective treatments identified by New York medical professionals. And those impacted by Florida’s current surge are much younger and, therefore generally, at less risk of death than were those in New York.

            http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ (see above; highlight New York)

          • Paul, the positivity rate; i.e. the percent of those tested returning a positive result, addresses your concern.

            Typically, in the scenario your describe, positivity rate decreases as the number of tests performed increases. In Florida and a number of other states, the positivity rate has increased rather than decreased even though the number of tests has increased.

          • “Also, COVID-19 exposure is not equivalent to a death sentence, even if you are in one of the higher risk groups. If you are young and healthy, you have very little to fear. I’m tired of people telling me that not wearing a mask in public makes me a murderer.”

            I heard a story yesterday about s Broadway singer, a young man of about 35 years, who got the Wuhan virus and after amputations (blood clots) and other extreme measures to save his life, he finally succumbed to the virus after *91 days* in the hospital. The Wuhan virus is a *very* serious disease to those susepticble to it. Even those who survive it spend weeks in the hospital. It should not be minimized.

      • Immediately after the Arizona explosion I looked for any reports of data anomaly and found a very big one. The Arizona explosion in positive tests was admitted to be due in large part to the addition of old, I’ll repeat that, “Old Data” from not just days, but weeks prior that had not been reported. It was lumped in with new data at the new data’s dates. Frankly, medical data keeping is often abysmal so no surprise to me. But Trump had been expected to hold a rally in Phoenix! Timing.

        Next was Florida, Trumps next big rally I believe. I looked for whatever I could find immediately after the reports surfaced of big increases with a similar result, although a bit more vague.

        Texas was next. One of Trump’s big promotors for reopening, just like Florida. The Republican Governor uncovered and publicly complained about the data and the way it was reported, but specifics were lacking.

        California next.. I would put less trust in their data than anywhere else in the country. No point in checking.

        All that I’d found on Arizona and Florida disappeared within a couple of days and I can no longer find it, although it should be part of the public record, especially Arizona’s big data anomaly.

    • The article author and this comment do not know what they are talking about.

      Urban areas with protests / riots had a huge surge of new cases.

      Most of the new cases were younger than earlier cases.

      They far kess often need a hospital and rarely die so DO NOT seem visible in the hospitalzation and deaths statistics.

      One young person I know lost her sense of smell from COVID — no other symptoms.

      She tested positive but will never need hospitalization.

  2. Noted. Out on a limb here, but staying with the truth that our experts and governments are hypocrites for endorsing mass protests.

    • They most certainly are hypocrites, especially when prohibiting things like fishing, tennis, golf… Activities where you’re not up close and personal with other people.

    • Calling them hypocrites does not do justice to their criminal actions.

      “HA”, our government employees and elected politician either agree with them …. or most certainly are SCARED shirtless ….. of the rioters, looters, burners, killers and lefty liberal media that support and praise their actions.

      The Democrats have been permitting/encouraging the looting, trashing and burning of America’s infrastructure and the deaths of tens of thousands of our citizens for the sole purpose of preventing Trumps re-election as POTUS.

      The results of their dastardly devious actions will surely cause “blood to run in the streets” after the November election results are announced, …… regardless of who wins..

      • “The Democrats have been permitting/encouraging … for the sole purpose of preventing Trumps re-election as POTUS.”

        I beg to differ. There are several other reasons:

        1. The backlash from their bogus attacks on the POTUS have engendered some serious investigations into the “Deep State” including a heavy load of Democrats plus a few Republicans along with a long list of career bureaucrats. By destroying Trump and regaining control of his office, they will be able to stop these investigations in their tracks.

        2. These Deep State felons don’t give a hoot about the middle class that the lockdowns are destroying. Their future competition (a significant group of the non-politician deep state) comes from the now smaller entrepreneurs that are being damaged or bankrupted.

        3. Fouci is in league with Gates who has a very very large interest in vaccines.

        4. I didn’t say anything about the intelligence services, remember that.

        This isn’t just about Trump; it’s much bigger for the Deep State including a whole lot of Democrats and bureaucrats embedded in government.

        • I beg to differ. There are several other reasons:

          100% correct, …….. I agree with every additional one you stated.

          Sam C

        • A big driving factor for COVID-19 lockdown histrionics is the Democrat push for postal ballots (Without ID of course) . This will enable even greater ballot fraud than the previous election. Reached 18% in some ballots.

  3. I think of it like this. If I sear a steak in the house the smoke lingers for a good amount of time. On the outdoor grill though, it’s not at all. The sunshine vitamin helps too, and there is the disinfecting action of the outdoor sun.

    • Excellent analogy. Lockdowns are not good. After a person coughs in your closed home the fine particles will remain in the air for days. They are to small to be filtered out with the typical air filter on the typical home HVAC system. Even with a heat recovery ventilation unit you need to exchange ten times the volume of the air in the home to remove (sort of) the contamination. Meanwhile you are breathing in the contamination, it is going into your lungs where it sticks to the moist Alveoli and remains in your lungs, With each breath you add more of the virus and can easily build up enough to start the problem.

      In addition to a mask, you need to follow the rules for protecting yourself from radioactive particulate contamination. That is Time, Distance and a properly worn mask. Soft, comfortable, flimsy, cloth loosely worn is only a virtue signal. Beards don’t help either.

      • Many transmissions are happening in the same household, but by no means is it always the case that, if one is infected, all others in the house will be. Indeed, it’s frequently not the case at all. Therefore the viral particles must not be lingering in the air for days, and must not demand anywhere near the ventilation you suggest. Definitely, if an infected person may cough in your presence, wear a cover and get tested. But even indoors, this is not Supervirus. Be smart.

        • Therefore the viral particles must not be lingering in the air for days,

          Nothing states that all members in the same household are susceptible to being infected with anything in common.

          • common cold or a decent tummy bug manage to get most of the family most of the time though?
            my state just locked down a massive cluster of hirise apts
            known cases and told to stay in for 5 days with cach bribes
            the whingeing is immense
            meanwhile with not enough cops on guard residents are moving freely amongst themslves so the tested will be likely to get it from the untested buggy neighbour etc.
            yet another dan andrews farce in action

      • A typical house, even a newer, better sealed one, completely change the air inside 2-3 times. Along with it goes heat, moisture, and dust, dirt, and viri and bacteria.

  4. I don’t think I care anymore about this than the swine flu. If it were the Spanish Flu – treated with the same methods (non-pharmaceutical distancing etc.) – we’d be approaching 1 million deaths in the US this year and 2 million total.

    I was already peeved at a friend posting a picture of someone gardening in their extensive back yard alone with a mask as a hero.

    • I have seen more than a few drivers in cars by themselves with the windows rolled up and the A/C on wearing an mask. Are they protecting against themselves? If they are worried about contaminating the car, just open the windows and let the air blast through for a couple of minutes before stopping. There, taken care of.

      • My pickup has a cabin filter installed in it, granted it is to course to catch the virus but so is a mask.

  5. Facts — what some have stated is still true “Facts are to liberals (progressives) as Kryptonite is to Superman.
    One should also use “science is to liberals …”

  6. Enough with the draconian lockdown/quarantine already! Go outside, get some sun and breathe fresh air but maintain social distancing as best you can. Live in Chicago or New York? Don’t get mugged while outside getting some theraputic sun.

  7. This whole covid 19 crap is way overblown. I have quit taking any precautions. The death rate is in regular flu territory. What the heck is everyone afraid of? Waiting for a vaccine? Sorry that isn’t going to happen. Show me a successful vaccine for any coronavirus. Far as I know there isn’t any. It is time we went back to our regular lives. Eventually almost everyone in the world will get infected with this virus so I could care less about the number of infections. Let us see the figures for the death rates. That is the important number. The reason it isn’t shown is it is not scary. By the way I want the number of deaths “from covid” not just those who died with covid. It is time for the lies to stop.

    • If you have are elderly and have health issues, this is a scary virus. People above 65 yrs age or with associated health (diabetes, hypertension, COPD are the Big 3 co-morbidities) issues must take this virus seriously as a threat.

      The ridiculous thing is now the schools are demanding 1st-12th grade students to wear masks when they go back to in-class instruction. Utterly stupid. It’s the teachers who are scared. The risk for 6-18 year olds is minuscule unless there are other health issues, and even then they are still very low. What are we doing to our kids? We’re simply scaring them and making sheep out them. Sports activites for them are cancelled. No summer baseball/softball. No fall football maybe and no soccer. Summer activity camps for them are cancelled. Mind-numbingly Dumb comin g from the Liberals. Stupid beyond belief what we are doing to the kids now with scared sheep adults.

      • How does the Coronavirus death distribution of age and health issues compare to a standard Flu?

        • The flu is a greater risk to the young. If you are older COVID is the greater risk. If you have health problems COVID is a problem because it new and your body has not seen a virus like it. It take time for the body to react and it my over react and kill you. From what I understand older people bodies don’t fight it off with antibodies their/our bodies use a difference response which take a toll on our organs. That why it so hard on the elderly. That also the problem with the antibody test some people fight it off without generating much in antibodies.

      • “Making sheep out of them” isn’t a bug–it’s a primary feature, if not the actual goal.
        This is weaponized fear, amped by media carpet-bombing of the public mind, and it’s ensuring the public docility much, much faster than the GND would have. Same agenda, different tactic.

      • There was a study done in China that found TB to be the top co-morbidity. I wonder how prevalent TB testing is in other places? I doubt it’s done very much.

      • The YMCA “schooled’ ~20,000 children of “essential workers” during the height of the main outbreak. No masks were used…no distancing. There was no problems with outbreaks amongst the children and subsequent tracking did not reveal transmissions from children to parents.

        Similarly, students in classrooms in Europe without masks did not carry infections to others.

        For those under 60, morbidity from Covid-19 is a fraction of that experienced by most influenzas (the flu actually targets children). Unless we plan to “mask” students during future flu seasons, “masking” them this fall makes no sense…and is child abuse. Breathing through a mask all day is physically tiresome and significantly increases the risk of bacterial infections.

      • Maintain sufficiency in vitamin D, zinc, selenium (a Brazil nnut a day) and the probability is that if you are infected you will be asymptomatic. This is keeping your innate immune system in the right state. Add more vitamins and micro nutrients by eating lots of mixed salads.
        Wearing masks is like having a pocket full of posies.
        None of the dietary advice is made available at the multiplicity of presentations to the public. Even though it is cheap and effective.
        Similarly as recent trials have shown Hydroxychloroquine/zinc/antibiotic is also cheap and effective if given early can result in close to a 100% recovery rate in a week.
        It would appear we are the victims of a sophisticated shakedown by people wanting to sell vaccines more than save lives, there has never been a successful vaccine against RNA viruses.

      • “The ridiculous thing is now the schools are demanding 1st-12th grade students to wear masks when they go back to in-class instruction. Utterly stupid. It’s the teachers who are scared. The risk for 6-18 year olds is minuscule”

        Yes, but isn’t it the case that children can spread the disease even though most don’t get sick? The teachers should be wary I would think, because they are definitely at risk.

        The teachers in the “at-risk” group should probably not return to school until a vaccine or an effective treatment is developed.

    • “This whole covid 19 crap is way overblown. I have quit taking any precautions. The death rate is in regular flu territory. What the heck is everyone afraid of? Waiting for a vaccine? Sorry that isn’t going to happen. Show me a successful vaccine for any coronavirus. Far as I know there isn’t any.”

      There you go.

      Humans, in the past, have done things that have never been done before. I wouldn’t rule out that humans will continue to do things that haven’t been done before.

  8. You state that wearing masks is a very very good thing indoors. Any evidence to back that statement up?
    Any explanation as to why absolutely all the studies until May this year said that masks were almost completely useless even in clinical settings with trained staff wearing properly fitted masks changed regularly?

    • You are right I read that the virus is only 400 microns. If so the mask would be like trying to stop mosquitoes with a chain link fence.🤦‍♂️😒

      • I got the virus size wrong. The real size is between 0.06 micron and 0.14 micron in diameter and the average is about 0.125 micron. Sorry for the mistake.

        • Matthew,
          Its not the size of the virus you are worried about, but the size of the snoticle upon which tens of thousands are riding, soon to be smeared on touchable surfaces, then transported by unwashed fingers to eyes, noses and lips.
          The doubling time to of your body’s immune cell system will easily beat “one“ virus but not if it has a multi-thousand head start.

          • Thanks DMacKenzie
            July 5, 2020 at 9:03 am

            Its not the size of the virus you are worried about, but the size of the snoticle upon which tens of thousands are riding, soon to be smeared on touchable surfaces,

            I don’t understand why readers here don’t get this. Fauci admitted he lied about it because he didn’t want folks buying masks… we know masks work, our fellow readers here think Covid sees a mask and circumvents it? Geeze–in addition to the snoticles, we are talking viral loads which is hugely important–there’s a bit of controversy but not much–here is an article that explores both sides, ” Someone is sick, they come to their doctor, they get a swab of their nose and throat, and the test measures how much virus is there. Based on The Lancet studies, measuring more virus over the course of infection correlates with more symptoms and more severe disease.”
            https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/is-viral-load-key-to-understanding-coronaviruss-severity.html

            I just don’t understand why readers here want to believe masks don’t work.

    • Sorry I got the virus size wrong it is between 0.06 micron and 0.14 micron in diameter. and the average is about 0.125 microns. So even smaller than I thought.

    • As a nurse practitioner I wear a mask, gloves and apron when I see patients. The mask is fluid resistant and is good for a maximum of 4 hours at which point it must be changed. The criteria for changing sooner are if it gets damp or if it’s removed to eat or drink. The mask does little to protect the wearer, like a surgical mask it’s to protect others from the wearer. There’s even a debate about the efficacy of masks in surgery (can’t remember the reference).
      I suggest someone tries walking into a bank or a diamond merchants wearing a bandana across the lower half of the face and asserting their second amendment rights and see what reaction they get!

      • An N95 respiratory face mask for corona-virus must block 95% it is the standard and what the 95 means. As you noted the sucker is small so there is no N100 mask.

        • “Use the 3M N100 disposable particulate respirator where certain OSHA substance-specific regulations require respiratory protection against particle exposures …”
          😉

      • Banks around here are closed. At best there will be one person to provide some help to the outside drive thru customers. Why, I wonder. Could it be to make more money?

      • There are no exceptions to your second amendment rights just because you are wearing a bandana across the lower half of your face. No judge would be swayed by such an argument.

      • Here in the Heart of Texas, a black guy walked into a bank wearing a bandana mask and an openly carried semiautomatic pistol. Nothing happened. (He is quite the anomaly. He is also a gay Republican and owns gun store. The Republican party NEEDS more blacks with a gun and an attitude. Really)

    • Masks are a lot more effective than sneezing into your elbow. In a group of random people where someone might be a CoVid19 spreader about to sneeze over the salad bar, are you really suggesting masks are ineffective at group protection? Your answer is not required.

      On the other hand, without masks, passing someone in a hallway at less than 2 meter spacing, and the person isn’t sneezing or speak-spattering has very low risk. So it depends on what “tests” were done, and what the pre-conceptions of the tester were.

    • Yeah, I’ve been reading everything I can to try to understand what is effective and what is not. Ive come to the conclusion that properly worn N95 masks are effective at reducing the amount of viral particle dispersion. Properly worn surgical masks are less effective. Cloth masks have zero efficacy in reducing transmission of virus aerosols. They probably would help reduce the amount of liquid dispersion to surfaces by someone who is coughing and sneezing. If anyone has, something that contradicts this, please post it. I am open to learning.

      FYI, virus particles are as small as 3 microns.

      • As per above N95 means it must block 95% that is what the number is. What that translates to in terms of real protection depends on the wearer behaviour and replacement at right intervals and conditions.

        • An N95 (or P95 or R95) mask doesn’t block 95% of everything. It block 95 % of particles .3 microns in diameter or larger. A mask rated at 100 will block 100% of particles .3 microns or larger. A HEPA filter is rated 100. Anything smaller than .3 microns will not be filtered out. The coronavirus is approximately .17 microns in diameter, about half the size of what can be filtered by these masks. However, I’m pretty sure these viruses aren’t just freely floating around in the air. They are riding around on saliva and nasal droplets, so the masks probably do provide some level of protection.

    • Masks reduce the spray distance for coughs and sneezes — thats good for others.

      I’ve worn my 99 cent mask only once or twice.

      It’s hot uncomfortable and people can’t hear what I say so I have to pull it down to talk.

      I end up touching my face far more often than without a mask — and that’s not good.

      My wife has a mask that painters normally use and it’s hotter and less comfortable than my thin mask.

      No one has coughed near me in the past three months but I’m glad they love masks here in Michigan because I’m in the very vulnerable subset of the population.

    • “You state that wearing masks is a very very good thing indoors. Any evidence to back that statement up?”

      Doctors and nurses wear masks. Why do they do that?

  9. A lot of mask-wearers are simply moronic, virtue-signaling Maskholes. If they see someone in a store who isn’t wearing a mask, they will deliberately walk up close to them, as a means of “punishment”. Watch out for the Maskholes, they are everywhere.

    • A lot of us mask wearers don’t want to get sick and spend 30 days in a hospital. That’s common sense, not virtue signalling.

      As for getting in someone’s face about not wearing a mask in public, I’ve given up on trying to enlighten fools. I just spend as little time around such people as possible.

      • Thanks Tom–what is it with these people who want to believe masks don’t work? I am astounded and then they call mask wearers names?” Live and let live”–or rather “let me live and you do what you want.”

  10. One: in Cliff’s list of things that are clear, there is . . .

    Solar radiation rapidly kills the virus.

    The virus is a dangerous thing, but it is not alive. Thus, the word “kills” ought to be interpreted as an analogy and not the death of something with its own life force. If you crush a ping-pong ball, you have ‘killed’ it.

    Two: just under that list is . . .

    We have folks going outside with great fear, even wearing masks when they are alone or distant from others.

    From the news: “The View” co-host Joy Behar revealed on Tuesday that she and hubby regularly spend time driving around looking for people who are walking around without masks during the coronavirus pandemic.

    Apparently this Joy person is an intelligent and influential sort.
    Who are we supposed to believe, Cliff Mass or a TV personality?
    Rhetorical, so don’t respond.

    • While most biologists consider a virus not to be alive, they still speak of its “life cycle”, of its being “live” and of “killing” it.

      Viruses are replicants and Mobile Genetic Elements, like transposons, plasmids and viroids. Unlike ping pong balls, they’re capable of reproduction inside cells.

      My personal, inexpert opinion is that viruses should be considered alive, or at least as subcellular organisms. They evolve, are capable of reproduction parasitically and lack only metabolism. Some megaviruses even retain metabolic genes.

    • “Life-force”?
      These viruses view us as fuel. More correctly these Sylvatics are .
      It was a virus that brought chloroplasts to celled organisms, resulting in the famous “fire-hose” O2 revolution. To say that virus used those pre-photosynthetic cells as fuel might be not quite right. Still it did fuel an evolutionary event. The previous forms became sediment.
      Could it be the biosphere is using method hundreds of millions of years already in action?
      Then the question is why the sudden uptick in viral pandemics. Maybe we are not performing our role in the biosphere?

      • “Then the question is why the sudden uptick in viral pandemics. Maybe we are not performing our role in the biosphere?”

        It’s like climate science: upticks are directly proportional to laws made and monies invested.

        • The uptick coincides with the global down tick in energy flux density per capita.
          Just before the O2 revolution the biosphere was in fact slowly dying. A new energy source was needed, fast. It was done.

          So going back to lower energy density sources threatens the biosphere, of which we a major part.
          Seems to me it reacts as it always did.

          The rule of life looks like Progress or Die. And 98% of all species have died out. We know the rule now and it sure looks like the Malthusians do too.

  11. We have known from the very start of the pandemic that being in the open air was by far the best thing. Instead we were locked up in tightly sealed double glazed houses where the virus could circulate as others came in and out for work, school or shops. This fetid atmosphere was then transmitted every time the occupants went to other enclosed spaces, most notably shops.

    Madness.

    tonyb

  12. Salute!

    Finally, a few stats to back up my assertions.

    Being “boots on the ground” down in Florida, I feel better qualified to “assert” than folks in S. Dakota or Montana.

    We had no significant increase in case rate, and even a decrease in death rate, after the beaches opened and the adjacent venues remained closed. Hmmmm….. Our significant increases in rate only started a few weeks after Memorial Day AND restaurants, etc reopened with limited patronage.

    – unless that virus has “superman” ability, hard to believe it can fly 2 or 3 feet upwind at the beach or 5 feet crosswind. You see, there’s the sea breeze and it can be 10 or 15 mph easy on a good, bright day. Even being downwind on the beach is better than being in front of someone at the grocery checkout unless those things can latch onto you when passing by at 15 per second, heh heh. One mph is about 1.46 feet per second. Kissing hugging? No question that is not wise.
    – the “science” told us over a month ago that ultraviolet killed the virus, and that large glowing ball in the sky that has a great effect on gorebull warming also emits gobs of ultraviolet. Hell, I wouldn’t mind having UV lamps all over the restaurants.
    – our biggest breakout locale two weeks ago was not on the sand, it was in the beachside bar and grill. All 16 of the “girls’ night out” group caught the critter, plus 7 of the staff!!! They had been cooped up for two months and had no symptoms, then celebrated.
    – Florida has outdoor seating for more restaurants than prolly any other state, especially on the waterfront locations. So you have the breeze and the sun working for you. The real danger comes from the hands of the waiter, masks or no masks.

    Lastly, the spike in Florida cases is mainly due to this season we call SUMMER!!! And the demographics illustrate who is catching the WuFlu – young folks socializing a lot and young families on vacation. Hell, they paid hundreds of bucks back in January for their week in the condo and came on down. Our population in my county which has a very popular beach venues goes from about 120,000 to 250,000 to 300,000 right after Memorial Day, although this year it didn’t boom as quickly or as much due to motel and condo restrictions. The visitors not only “mix” a lot, but it’s a good guess that some brought the critter with them.

    Gums sends…

    • Salute!

      I have to recant about the population numbers of our county. I was using old data and ‘fess up. The tourist numbers are about the same, but baseline population is about 200,000. Hard to get real close numbers, but one small town : ” permanent population rests at a comfortable 13,000 residents. ….. peak season Destin has up to 25,000 tourists in the city” . Adjacent towns on the Gulf from Navarre to Panama City show similar numbers.

      Sorry, very un”Mannly” of me to not correct bad data.

      OTOH, “Visit Florida, the state’s official tourism marketing corporation, announced Wednesday that 126.1 million out-of-state visitors came to Florida in 2018.”
      How many go to New Hampshire or Connecticutt or Mass or Illinois? We see flu cases go up each Feb and March due to the snowbirds, but nothing like this critter.

      Gums sends…

    • Unwashed hands transferring the virus from often-touched surfaces to eyes, nose, mouth is obviously the biggest infectious pathway with CoVid19. An indoor sneezes by an infected person contaminates many touchable surfaces and later, anyone touching the surface is…..
      In any restaurant or bar setting, there is a good chance that the wash cloth is just used as a smear spreader, spreading the virus contamination from table to table unless alcohol or bleach is the disinfectant. Soapy water is just a diluent dependent upon sending the virus down the drain with the rinse water.

  13. False statistics are false. People who aren’t in fairly good health don’t go to protests.

    So the protests negatively select away from those who are ill enough to easily catch Covid.

    Bad articles are garbage and should be punished.

  14. Covid 19 has become or maybe always was a political tool used to destroy capitalism from from within. Climate Change, Black Lives Matter and Covid 19 have all morphed into politics of the extreme left if they ever weren’t political from the start.

    • Everything is political with the Leftwing Media controlling the message. It’s their job to politicize anything that could benefit the Left politically. They are very good at their job. But Trump is cutting into their credibility, possibly one of the best things he could do for the United States because the Lying Leftwing Media is a danger to our Republic by creating false realities that cause people to act against their own self-interest, such as voting for Democrats..

    • Case:

      Covid is a just a new disease.

      Governors reactions to Covid are political — they may be just as deadly as the virus, or worse.

      No one knows now — we are still in the first covud pandemic.

      I agree the leftist politics are ridiculous especially the reaction to HQC after Trump mentioned it.

      The reporting is scaremongering just like climate change for the past 20 years.

      Not fake news like Russian collusion, but extreme scaremongering.

      My latest covid article is at:l
      http://www.ElectionCircus.Blogspot.com

    • Vuk

      You are looking at the total, not the rate. The death rate in Sweden is very low now.
      9 deaths July 4.

      • thanks Billy.
        It says “deaths cases per 100 000 population” or
        deaths/100 000 population or A/B
        ‘rate’ from Latin ‘pro/rata’: a fixed ratio between two things.

    • Sweden’s 7 day moving average deaths per day is on a trajectory to approach zero later this month. They have achieved a good level of population immunity. R0 has been below 1 for many weeks. The Swedes are just about done with Covid-19. If we keep distancing and “shut down” we’ll never be done with it…we’ll have to keep our elderly and vulnerable sequestered for many more months…maybe longer if effective vaccines never materialize.

      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

  15. Corona virus particles are spheres with diameters of approximately 0.125 microns. The smallest are about 0.06 microns and the largest are 0.14 microns. Tobacco smoke as it comes from a cigarette is a concentrated aerosol with a size distribution ranging from 0.1 to1.0 microns, peaking between 0.2 and 0.25 microns. Thus, tobacco smoke particles on average, are larger than corona virus particles.

    For those of you who smoke, inhale, put on your cloth mask, and exhale. For those of you who do not smoke, ask a friend of yours if you can observe them when they perform this experiment.

    Now, ask yourself, if the cloth mask is ineffective at preventing the exhalation of smoke particles, which are twice the size of corona virus particles, are they effective from preventing the INHALATION of corona virus particles?

    Now some of you may say that the virus particles attach themselves to droplets of moisture when someone who is infected, exhales, coughs, or sneezes, and that cloth masks are effective against droplets. Ok, so you are wearing a mask and as you inhale, any droplets are trapped in the mask. But as the droplets evaporate, you are inhaling a concentration of virus particles. And if you already have the corona virus, you are exhaling contaminated droplets into the mask, where they evaporate, allowing you to re-inhale the virus particles.

    In addition, air typically contains about 20.5% oxygen. When exhaled, your breath contains between about 15% to 16% oxygen, due to your lungs absorbing the oxygen, the remainder of your exhaled breath containing mostly carbon dioxide. If you are a shallow breather wearing a mask, the mask tends to temporarily concentrate the the carbon dioxide, allowing you to re-inhale it. Carbon dioxide levels less than 19% can cause serious problems.

    In any event, I do not feel that the common cloth mask serves any medical purpose.

    • Masks capture and absorb droplets “on the way out”. If you are not sneezing, coughing, shouting, or protest chanting, you are not expelling droplets.

      Any barrier is a barrier, so the “smoker with mask” demonstration will have slightly fewer smoke particles exiting the mask (and the mask will smell like smoke for years). With aerosolized virus only (no droplets), only a small non-zero number are captured by cloth masks.

      I have not seen studies that specifically looked at the efficacy of masks for outgoing droplets when coughing and sneezing is not involved…but the differences should be negligible with or without masks if coughing and sneezing is *not* involved.

      On the other hand, if someone has been coughing and sneezing into a mask all day, exhaled air passing through the mask likely picks up a lot of viruses on it’s way out. So even more so than usual, avoid coughers and sneezers whether or not a mask is in place.

    • Carbon dioxide levels less than 19% can cause serious problems.

      I consider it a good day when I learn something new!

    • Carbon dioxide is .00065 microns. No way a cloth mask, or any other mask, is preventing it from escaping.

      • Yes there is. Get an OSHA approved air monitor and place the intake by your mouth while you are breathing without a mask. Oxygen content will be around 20.5%. Now, put on the mask, clear the detector, and place it in the same location under the mask. Breathe shallowly, pant, like a person who may suffer from anxiety attacks or claustrophobia. The oxygen content goes down as the carbon dioxide content momentarily increases. It will not “concentrate” due to the porosity of the mask, but can momentarily increase upon “normal” breathing to cause medical issues.

      • Yes there is. Get an OSHA approved oxygen analyzer. Place the intake by your mouth as you breathe (through your mouth). The oxygen content will be around 20.5%. Now, clear the analyzer, and place the intake tube at the same location by your mouth under the mask. Now, breathe shallowly, or pant, like a person who may suffer from anxiety attacks or claustrophobia. The oxygen content will decrease to around 19% as the carbon dioxide level momentarily increases with each exhaled breath. Exhaled breath contains around 15-17% carbon dioxide due to the exchange of oxygen with carbon dioxide in the lungs. The carbon dioxide obviously does not concentrate steadily, but it can momentarily concentrate enough to cause health issues as it is re-inhaled depending upon how long the mask is worn.

    • “In any event, I do not feel that the common cloth mask serves any medical purpose.”

      Tell it to the doctors and nurses. When the doctors and nurses stop wearing their masks, then I will stop wearing mine.

  16. UV, heat, salt water, all kill it. PLus sunshine is good for Vit D, and the immune system. Best place to go is a beach.

  17. I thought that with this, discussion this would be interesting.

    Any effects of fabric masks will depend on how and how well they are made. In an unpublished study whose raw data are not currently available, Jayaraman et al.4 examined a range of fabric-based filtration systems, in terms of how well they stopped particles (filtration efficiency) and how much they impeded breathing (differential pressure, Delta-P, the measured pressure drop across the material, which determines the resistance of the material to air flow).5 The study varied fabric type (woven, woven brushed, knitted, knitted brushed, knitted pile), material type (cotton, polyester, polypropylene, silk), fabric parameters (fabric areal density, yarn linear density, fabric weight), and construction type (number of layers, orientation of the layers). The study found wide variation in filtration efficiency. A mask made from a four-layer woven handkerchief fabric, of a sort that might be found in many homes, had 0.7% filtration efficiency for 0.3 micron size particles and a Delta-P of 0.1”. Much higher filtration efficiency was observed with filters created specifically for the research from a five-layer woven brushed fabric (35.3% of the particles were trapped) and from four layers of polyester knitted cut-pile fabric (50% of the particles were trapped with a Delta-P of 0.2”).

    The greater a mask’s breathing resistance, which is reflected in a higher Delta-P, the more difficult it is for users to wear it consistently, and the more likely they are to experience breathing difficulties when they do.6 Although Jayaraman et al. did not measure breathing resistance directly, almost all of the masks they tested would be expected to have breathing resistance within the range of commercial N95 respirators. One mask that used 16 layers of the handkerchief fabric, in order to increase filtration efficiency (63% efficiency with a Delta-P of 0.425”), had breathing resistance greater than that of commercial N95 respirators, which would cause great discomfort to many wearers and cause some to pass out.

    https://www.nap.edu/read/25776/chapter/1

  18. Masks were not only deemed a good thing but also deemed necessary in 1918-19. That did a lot of good.

  19. “It is important to note that the number of COVID-19 cases is going up modestly in King County, but that is being driven by a near doubling of tests (note that the bottom graph starts earlier). Much of the media neglects to note the importance of increased testing in finding more cases.”

    Yet here in the Seattle area, they keep putting people on TV and radio telling us the “spike” is NOT due to increased testing. Yeah, right. Maybe not 100%, but how could a doubling in testing NOT give you a significant increase??

  20. I notice that Florida has a CV death rate/million about 40% of the national average and no surge in deaths.
    My hypothesis is that southern states are a bit behind in the infection cycle and are also testing more healthy young people who will not die from this.

  21. Many of the comments here are about masks. As pointless as masks are, as used now, I think this misses the real point.
    The article makes some statements concerning an increase in the disease:
    “One commenter noted that percentage of positive test are increasing recently, indicating viral spread. This is true.” …… “More recent rises, in WA and for most of the country, are associated with lessening of restrictions and lockdowns.”

    Yes there has been an increase in testing. AND New Tests! A new test called an IGg trest has been in the news in the last 2 weeks. IGg is an immunoglobulin test. It shows whether you have antibodies to the virus. If so, you are immune.
    These tests are being reported as COVID New Cases when positive (!!!!!)
    This is giving the surge in cases. Look around you. It has been obvious the me that various powers that be have wanted a “Second Wave” since near the beginning. If a second wave does not occur, it will need to be created.
    Here is a link to Tony Heller’s blog. He covers the story as published in The Atlantic, an has a link to the original article.
    https://realclimatescience.com/2020/07/cdc-sabotaging-the-economy/

    This is where the surge in cases is coming from, and nowhere else.

    • If antibodies are NOT present does NOT prove lack of infection. The presence of any of the symptoms without antibodies means that your innate immune system has handled the virus at the mucosa. Most people with a positive antibody test have been those worst affected, basically it means their innate immune system has failed to protect against the virus and the reactive immune system has been activated. The over activity of the reactive immune system can lead to a cytokine storm. The innate system is amplified by vitamin D whereas the reactive immune system is modulated by vitamin D. Therefore a lack of vitamin D reduces the innate immune system and allows the reactive immune system to be over stimulated.

    • You don’t “know” that since a lot of states are testing for antibodies and throwing the results in the same bin. Again we are being feed bad numbers, extrapolation from them is impossible. Do me a favor sort this mess out and report back to me when you “know” something.

    • Ghalfrunt

      More asymptomatic people are being tested. A higher infection rate without illness is a good thing, not a cause for alarm.

  22. I think we can agree, putting it politely, that we’re all fed up to the back teeth with the whole affair.

  23. Wrote about All this before.
    If Wuhan coronavirus was significantly aerosolized, then there would be two comsequences.
    1. It would be highly seasonal, like flu. It is now obvious from Fl, Tx, Az that it is NOT highly aerosolized.
    2. Masks would be useless, as shown by their not being recommended in winter flu season.

    Wuhan is like other common cold corona viruses in terme of transmission. Close personal contact, including touching infected objects and then the face. But outdoors, sunlight is a good disinfectant, so the touch transmission route is an indoor issue. So masks are pretty insignificant. 1 meter distance, frequent indoor (grocery store) hand washing, not touching face until Hands washed suffice.

    Masks do not protect the wearer, they protect you from the wearer. But if symptomatic, the wearer should not be out and about in the first place. What remains is the infectiousness of asymptomatics.
    This has two subsets: not yet, and never.
    We know the not yet CAN be infectious (the UK guy who caught it in Singapore, gave it to 9 others on a 4 day ski vacation in France before becoming symptomatic back in UK. But there was no social distancing and no handwashing on that vacation.
    We don’t know if never symptomatics (CDC estimate is ~35% of positive infections) can spread infection. The Kimberly Guilfoyle/Don Jr experiment ( she tested positive, no symptoms yet, Don Jr tested negative) will provide one possible data point in that Cohort. CVN 71 provides another.

    In my opinion, the whole mask thing is greatly overwrought, and common sense departed the Virus debate months ago. Treating mob rioters and church congregants differently underscores the last point.

  24. I would like to put a question to the whole blog for a vote. Should American professional baseball reopen complete with spectators in the stands.

    • I could really care less about any “professional” sport. These are extremely overpaid entertainment scripted performers. The performers completely lost my interest decades ago and have done nothing to regain it since then.

  25. A bit of an aside here, but I find the reported case totals unreliable at best. The hand-wringing over the “record” number of cases in Arizona is an example. Take a look at the Johns Hopkins page for Arizona:

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/arizona

    Note the disclaimer: “Currently, states may not be distinguishing overall tests administered from the number of individuals who have been tested. This is an important limitation to the data that is available to track testing in the U.S., and states should work to address it.”

    So, if someone tests positive for CV-19, it’s possible (likely?) that if they are tested again and again until they test negative, then those additional positives are included in the overall positive cases totals. But it’s the same person! SMH

  26. Salute!

    C’mon. Rud, the mask is for the guy with the bug that is coughing and wheezing and such.

    The only masks that can protect the average person are the chem warfare ones. The ones we are all supposed to wear might be 10% effective if the guy with the bug is only breathing and not coughing in your face. Even that is optimistic. The point about the masks is to keep the infected ones from making more infected ones. The mask cuts down on the distance the critter can carry, huh?

    I do not wear a mask unless there are others in the convenience store when I make my beer run. I do it so some yeahoo won’t confront me, not because I think the mask will protect me.

    Gums sends…

  27. PS: Wearing masks is a very, very good thing if you are indoors. More than a good thing– necessary in all public indoor spaces.

    PS: BS.
    But then you knew I’d type that.

    Indoor air is much more likely to be infused with infectious aerosols, and masks of the sort being pushed by supposed experts have no known controlled randomized study concluding that masks do anything to effectively prevent infectious aerosol emission from the wearer who contributes ample amounts of these. Cloth (with simple crossing threads) has spaces large enough for infectious aerosol particles to pass through significantly. Furthermore, the lack of a seal around facial contours, particularly around the nose, in addition to small irregularities in the material at the edges, create channels for focused air currents to escape carrying those infectious aerosols, on each exhale.

    There are enough aerosol particles both getting through the spaces of the threads and leaking out the edges from lack of seal, to maintain a cloud of aerosols in the air of interior spaces. Everybody wearing masks, emitting those particles en mass maintains such a cloud. And since the particles can get out, they most certainly can get in, and, of course, a percentage of them (just as they can be kept out by the mask) can get back in through the mask, collect on the mask, build up a concentration over time on the mask, get breathed back in my the wearer, get slingshot off the mask, back into the air, and so the cycle continues.

    And what about those larger spit balls that some studies make a big to do about? First, they are secondary, to begin with, as far as the most severe way the infection gets deep into the lungs (which is by aerosols, as mentioned earlier). Second, when those spit drops hit the threads of the fabric, are we supposed to think that they magically just sit there? Would they not hit the space, and then disperse into smaller droplets, upon each successive exhale, getting atomized and cast back into the air eventually?

    And what about big spit drops that hit the floor? — Do THEY just sit there? — I’d say, “no”. People jostle them about, smash them up into smaller pieces, and air currents created by passing bodies whirl them back into the air as smaller drops.

    We don’t know the micro-physics or micro-fluid dynamics of those spit balls. Many people are just dreaming that they know, hoping they know, ignoring the deeper levels of evidence needed to establish that we know what we think we know. THAT evidence does NOT exist. We do NOT know.

    The masks, thus, are talismans, good luck charms, symbols of virtue, symbols of compliance with the hopes and dreams of the ignorant masses.

    And don’t get me started on human behavior. Look at how people are actually trying to use masks. Then laugh, when you realize that basic compliance with even the simplest best handling practices is impossible. People are not willing to do even those basics consistently, rigidly, conscientiously, all day long, everyday, in their normal work day, with normal reflexive demands that they have conditioned themselves to do without a mask all their lives.

    Stop the mask madness.

    End rant.

  28. Many people are extremely susceptible to fears about their health, often taking a zero-tolerance attitude to any risk. I used to smoke cigarettes. (I quit. Are you happy now?) People had been told that any exposure, no matter how brief, to cigarette smoke was harmful, and sometimes otherwise rational people would freak out if they saw me smoking in the same room. How anyone could possibly believe that the much diluted smoke I exhaled in a restaurant could possibly harm anyone who didn’t smoke is astonishing in it irrationality. If tobacco smoke were that dangerous, I would have collapsed in breathless agony when I inhaled the smoke from the cigarette. Did people think I was superhuman?

    Or how many times have you met people who wouldn’t eat certain foods, under the impression that they were harmful? How do vegetarians explain the obvious fact that omnivores live past the age of 50?

    What I’m getting at here is that the neurotic avoidance of risk of illness is common.

  29. all these “mask experts” are just illogical and are not spouting scientific or even common sense theories about masks …

    people out in public, when not speaking, do not breath thru their mouth … when you breathe thru your nose most of the virus in your exhale ends on your shirt not in the air … wearing a mask changes your breathing and forces you to breathe thru your mouth more often (not good) … and the mask everyone is currently wearing doesn’t protect you from infection if there is a viral load in the air … zero, nada protection …

    there is a reason humans are designed to normally breathe thru the nose, ITS A FRICKIN FILTER for pathogens … if you encounter the virus breathing thru your mouth you are more likely to infect your lungs (not good) vs breathing thru your nose where any infection begins in the sinus passages …

    everyone is just making assumptions, assumptions that aren’t even logical …

    and none of the “experts” have a theory as to why children are not infectious but also explains their “assumption” that asymptomatic adults are infectious (if the kids aren’t, they obviously aren’t) …

  30. Here’s another tid-bit to consider:
    Atmosperic oxygen content here in Eugene Oregon is 20.9% at elevation 350+/- above MSL.
    Using a combustible gas indicator (CGI or similar instrument) put an N95 mask on your face.
    Measure the oxygen content just outside the mask. It may vary a little depending on your elevation.
    Then slip the hose under the mask and up by your nose or mouth and measure the oxygen content there.
    I get readings of 17.9% oxygen consistently.
    OSHA Regulations stipulate that atmospheric oxygen content below 19.5% is IDLH (Immediately Dangerous to Life & Health). In the demolition industry (which I am) that17.9 % gets an OSHA Citation every time.

    • Pretty sure you said “lockdown” was best. So getting out and about is best, now?

  31. One has to be careful getting statistics from a many parameter system.

    You start with “Thousands gathered without social distancing and a good 10% had no masks. ”

    and end with “Wearing masks is a very, very good thing if you are indoors” .

    Maybe the numbers prove that it is also a very good thing to wear masks in public gatherings outdoors. Effectively the “thousands” become “hundreds” and social distancing is imposed by the numbers, if 90% wear masks, their exstance imposes effective social distancing.

    • Salute!

      Great point DOUG !!!!!!

      We need to do the IQ test for all folks at the two U.S. political party conventions this year.

      Gums suggests….

  32. Dr Richard North noted that Israel has seen an increase in cases 4 weeks after it eased lockdown restrictions. But as noted here, is that due to increased testing? Dr North did not comment on that. The issues that worry people are will I die from the virus? Will the virus cause lasting damage to the lungs and/or other organs? How long might I be ill if I do get it? That seemingly fit and healthy younger people have died causes concern. Near me a paramedic who was superfit died from it very quickly. Does being superfit weaken your immune system not strengthen it as you might think? Wouldn’t be the first time this has been suggested with viruses. He would also likely have made multiple contacts with the virus and this is certainly a fatal mode for the virus.

  33. Several things occur to me:
    – Maybe 10% were not wearing any mask at all, at any time, but I bet that a large number of the people did not wear them continuously and correctly and perfectly…IOW they touched their face, eyes, took it off when talking, or to scratch the itch on their nose, etc. Even trained professionals have a hard time not touching face.

    – Mask does no good if a droplet lands on your eyeball, or you touch something with virus and then touch eyes or face or nose. You need some kind of good goggles, or sunglasses at least…the tight fitting kind.
    And when you get home you have to remove all virus on your clothes, shoes, and body and everything else, without getting infected at that point.

    – You can only get the virus from someone who has it, or give to to someone else IF you have it.
    So rates of spread depend on how many of those people are infected and contagious, and also not using proper methods.
    I think the people who are not careful can spread it to many people in short time…super spreader events.
    And these are the people most likely to become infected too, because they are not careful.
    So first the spreaders need to get infected, and then pass it along when they become contagious.
    So it starts slow. Mostly people who are active, out and about. High chance of mild case or asymptomatic.
    And these spreaders are not very likely to wind up in ER…that happens later when more vulnerable people start getting it from the spreaders in increasing frequency.
    Some of them get very sick and do so quickly. By them the people with a slow burn case that gets suddenly worse…they show up in ERs on deaths door.
    The slow burn becomes a steeping curve.

    However, that was at the outset.
    Maybe the most vulnerable protecting themselves now will alter the pattern substantially.
    Maybe masks and many people taking at least some steps at protection will get a low initial viral dose, and so mild cases will stay high. Severe cases when people are not at all careful, or someone has multiple exposures over a short period of time, which happens when more than an occasional person is out and about and shedding virus.
    And many have already had it, and I am not so sure we know exactly how many, but it is more all the time.
    No way to be sure, but most commonly infection will confer some level of resistance or immunity, at least for a while. Maybe years. And it is less likely to be very bad, because your body has seen and fought it before.

    In summary, it is hard to say, and a lot of factors come into play, and there are some things that have not happened before and so may be impossible to predict with any level of skill,

    I am not seeing a ton of people making me think they must be Son of Kreskin up in here.
    Predictions are hard, especially about the things that are unpredictable.

  34. Wuhan Flu is not obeying the Marxist agenda any more than Klimate change has. They must be sooo disappointed and desperate to keep the fear going.

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