Who is at risk from the Chinese Virus? Some hard data at last #coronavirus

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

As the old saying goes, In God we trust: all others bring data. At last, we have some decent – if not yet peer-reviewed – data on who is most susceptible to the Chinese virus. A large survey of patients hospitalized with the infection has just been published.

Features of 16,749 hospitalized UK patients with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterization Protocol is full of useful facts of which governments can take advantage.

Perhaps the most startling results were that a third of all hospitalized patients died, 17% are still in hospital and only half have been discharged. Almost half of all intensive-care or high-dependency patients and more than half of all ventilated patients died. Almost half of those admitted to hospital had no comorbidities: age seems to be the most important risk factor.

Those aged 50-69 were 4 times likelier to die than those under 50: those in their 70s were 10 times likelier to die; those over 80 were 14 times likelier to die; females were 20% less likely to die than males.

Since the paper is not yet peer-reviewed, an outside expert opinion was sought from Dr Derek Hill, Professor of Medical Imaging at University College, London, who said:

“This is an extremely impressive preprint describing the characteristics of nearly 17000 patients with confirmed COVID-19 in UK hospitals. Important to note it only covers those admitted to hospital, and that it is a snapshot of outcomes: many patients included are still in hospital so their outcomes are not yet known. Therefore all the mortality and survival numbers are subject to change.

“This is an especially large study, so it provides helpful insights into the symptoms of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital.  As has been reported many times, this is not like flu in who gets seriously ill or in mortality: young children seem to have low risk and pregnant women do not have a increased risk of serious illness, and it is deadlier than flu. 

There are several distinctive clusters of symptoms, with a significant number of patients not having the characteristic cough and  fever symptoms.  If extrapolated to the community, this might suggest some deaths due to COVID-19 might be missed in untested people.  This work also highlights the link between obesity and poor outcome from COVID-19.”

Policymakers devising strategies for phasing out lockdowns will find the following table summarizing the results useful. For instance, since those under 50 are unlikely to die of the infection and the risk of death even for those in their 60s and 70s is quite small, continuing to lock down the entire economy is no longer necessary.

Instead, there will need to be better procedures for protecting old and sick people in hospitals and in care homes from infection. Outside these settings, old people are canny enough to take their own precautions.

Screenshot 2020-05-03 16.52.18

Our daily graphs of growth rates or declines in estimated active cases and growth rates in cumulative deaths shows all countries tracked bar Sweden and Ireland with active-case rates declining, and all but Canada with daily cumulative deaths growing at 3% or less.

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Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to May 2, 2020.

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Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to May 2, 2020.

Ø High-definition Figures 1 and 2 are here.

345 thoughts on “Who is at risk from the Chinese Virus? Some hard data at last #coronavirus

    • Yes, because almost all obese and overweight people are severely, Vitamin D deficient.

      From the paper linked to below.

      “Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had Vitamin D insufficiency.”

      Vitamin D deficiency is the common factor. Same explanation as to why 3 times as many dark skin people died from covid than white skin people.

      https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

      The VDI (Vitamin D Insufficiency) prevalence in ICU patients was 84.6%, vs. 57.1% in floor patients.

      Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had VDI. Coagulopathy was present in 62.5% of ICU COVID-19 patients, and 92.3% were lymphocytopenic.

      Conclusions: VDI is highly prevalent in severe COVID-19 patients. VDI and severe COVID-19 share numerous associations including hypertension, obesity, male sex, advanced age, concentration in northern climates, coagulopathy, and immune dysfunction.

      Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

      The overall prevalence rate of vitamin D deficiency was 41.6%, with the highest rate seen in blacks (82.1%), followed by Hispanics (69.2%). Vitamin D deficiency was significantly more common among those who had no college education, were obese, with a poor health status, hypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, …. (all P < .001). Multivariate analyses showed that being from a non-white race, not college educated, obese, having low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, poor health, a revalence and correlates of vitamin D deficiency in US adults

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21310306

      Comment: The supplement required is 4000 IU/day. A glass of milk has 110 UI, fortified.

      This chart gives an overview of the issue.

      Chart summarizing the results of Vitamin D studies. Roughly 60% reduction cancer, type 1 diabetes, multiple sclerosis, and so on. There is also a strong correlation with dementia in elderly people and Vitamin D deficiency.

      https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/disease-incidence-prev-chart-051317.pdf

      • In the UK vitamin D3 supplement (25 micrograms or 1000IU) is currently difficult to get hold of.

        • Interesting Vuk – just checked my usual vendors and the the first time ever it is indeed out of stock. Luckily for me I replenished my supply six weeks ago! I have been taking 1000IU every day for the past year or so and what’s left will last me 6 months.

          • John. A 1000 UI/day of Vitamin D supplements is not enough. There are US studies that have proven that.

            The amount of Vitamin D supplement required is 4000 UI/day. That amount gets most people into the range to protect for cancer and to stop most common diseases. (See the above chart).

            US Studies have been done with Vitamin D supplements from 1000 UI/day to 10,000 UI/day. There were no observed problems due to Vitamin D supplements in that range.

            4000 UI/day is the recommended maximum by one US medical board.

            I take 6000 UI/day, however, I am doing research on the activation of a system which energizes the core of the body and another system which repairs the brain.

            The initiation of the body core system starts at 4000 UI/day which explains why people lose 40 to 60 lbs when they correct their Vitamin D deficiency.

            The body core system is controlled by the lower brain. Vitamin D is a proto hormone that turns on and off genes and is known to be used in 200 body processes.

            When the body core system is turned on the host’s core is activated, the spine strengths and tries to return to its natural position, as the core system is turned on to a higher level.

            This core system when it is activated, also generates heat, warming the core of the body.

            When you look at people who are all of similar age it is very easy to see who is and who is not vitamin D deficient, based on the activation of this core system. The people who are not vitamin D deficient, look 10 to 15 youngers, they feel better, and they have better posture.

            There is a significant correlation with depression and vitamin D deficiency.

          • Those doses would be expensive.

            But if worth the cost, then I can just buy cheaper booze.

          • I am grateful to Mr Astley and many others for having provided information about Vitamin D deficiency in Chinese-virus patients. This series has already provided evidence from a meta-analysis of clinical trials on 10,500 patients that the one prophylactic already proven to work against respiratory infections is sufficient Vitamin D3. Thanks to this additional information, I shall devote a future posting to this topic.

          • “Those doses would be expensive. But if worth the cost, then I can just buy cheaper booze.”

            It’s not that bad. I pay less than $10 for a 3 month supply @ 4000 IU per day (1000 IU per tablet). What I don’t like about most vitamin D products is that they are softgels, which means unnecessary consumption of soybean oil the vitamin is dissolved in. So I get a tablet form.

          • I’ve been taking 5000IU/day for years. VD Level of at least 30ng/ml is needed for prevention, and for that one need to take 4-5 thousand units. This is known empirically and can also be calculated from the known pharmacokinetic properties of VD. My vitamin D level is btw 60ng/ml.

          • I prefer the old fashioned method of getting my vitamins from food. Sea food, eggs, and mushrooms for vitamin D.

            And anyone that has been to Japan can tell you that they eat a lot of all three of those foods (the whole country smells like shitoki), and I suspect the same is true for Korea and other nations that are now being said to have been spared the virus’ wraith due to masks.

          • It is likely that supplements are better than no supplements, but no amount of them is as good as exposing your skin to direct sunlight for a little while every day.
            If you can lie out for an hour, you can feel the change in your body.
            If you are deficient, you will feel a euphoria stronger than an intense runners high as your body makes what it needs for free.
            Note that there are numerous minerals and vitamins and other nutrients you need, and no amount of one thing will make up for a deficiency of any one of the others.
            IOW…do not focus on one aspect of nutrition.
            You have to understand the full catalog of nutritional requirements and then make sure you have ZERO deficiencies.
            Also…you will never be able to absorb supplements if you do not know a few things.
            The most important is to take them with food.
            If you do not, you need to know exactly how each nutrient is absorbed and make sure you are not taking it in such a way that it is passing right through you.

            We did not evolved for billions of years taking a vitamin D3 pill…we evolved outside in the sun making a crapload of it via UV shining onto our skin.
            Unless you think such biochemistry is very simple, you will understand there is more to vitamin D than can be replaced by taking oral D3

          • The amount of Vitamin D supplement required is 4000 UI/day.

            Exposure to sun on a significant area of bare skin for 15+ minutes should supply that.

        • I bought a bottle of 1000IU D3 when this nonsense started, and I’ve been taking 1 per day. But some “experts” say you need 5000IU – 10000IU per day? That seems like a lot, wouldn’t excess D3 simply pass through your system? Should I take 2 or 3 per day? Or should I sit in the sun for a couple of hours with a cool drink?

          • My doctor tells me, based on annual blood panel. I take 4000 IU per day, bringing my “Vit D, 25 hydroxy, total, serum” to 43.0, with > 30 “optimal”.

          • Vitamin D is a fat soluble vitamin so it does not pass in the urine and it is possible to overdose on if taking large doses over a long time period (shark and cod liver oils have huge amounts of Vit. A and D so if one were to take a lot of these it is possibly to get too much, especially of Vit. A). The medical community was obsessed with this for years and decades ago were reluctant to prescribe extra Vitamin D. Over the last 20 years, they have realized that is is not that easy to overdose on Vitamin D and that it is needed for many more processes than they knew. And they starting finding that many older people and heavy people have lower levels of Vit. D. If you have extra fat, the Vitamin D gets diluted into your fat tissues. They also in the US, have increased the RDA several times over the last decade or so. The generic Centrum I take daily used to have 400 IU but then they increased to 800 IU and now they contain 1000 IU. On top of that (since I was tested and had low Vit. D) I take an extra 2000 to 4000 per day and I eat salmon or tuna at least once a week. Just the 1,000 IU/day for 1 year only raised my serum level from a low 260 to a low normal 340 which is why I added the 2000 to 4000 extra per day.

          • I personally would not take more than 6000 IU/day of Vitamin D and there is no health reason to go beyond 10,000 IU/day.

            Also, if you are getting full body sun exposure in the summer or at low enough latitudes for roughly hour per day, there is no reason to take Vitamin D supplements.

            For most people, however, it is not possible to get sufficient daily sunlight. 4000 UI/day is good as recommendation for the general population as there is a US board that has stated that is there recommended maximum and it is still high enough to make a difference, as long as BMI is average.

            I added the following supplement and found a significant increase in core activity and general energy.

            There is also correlation Zinc deficiency and sever covid cases also.

            I believe the Vitamin D activates a microbiological system that when there is free Zinc in the body stream enable a tiny amount of Zinc into our cells.

            In vitro tests have shown the Z+2 ion makes the ACE-2 molecule in our cells slightly positive which stops the covid virus from replicating.

            I take the standard supplement of (one pill) Calcium 333mg, Magnesium 167 mg, and Zinc 17 mg.

            Calcium helps activate the Vitamin D and Magnesium helps with the absorption of calcium. Vegetarians are Zinc deficient.

            Vegetarians had more sever Covid cases than non-vegetarians which is odd as in most health cases they do better due to their diet’s, high fiber which feeds syngeneic microbiological entities that live in our lower intestine.

            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2973827/

            Zn 2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture

            Zinc deficiency linked to immune system response, particularly in older adults

            https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150323142839.htm

            Zinc helps against infection by tapping brakes in immune response
            https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130207131344.htm

          • I have been on a D3 journey for over seven years. First a warning concerning High Dose D3. Vitamin K complex MUST be taken also. To really get your level elevated need to take at least 8k with vit K. Best taken with high fat meal. EVERY day. I went from 37 blood level to 80 today. In yearly days a lot of hand wringing about overdosing. Toxic. Turns out hard to OD on Vit D3. 5000 with vit K is the very lowest IU for OK health I started out slow. Took me years to really increase my D3 level. I have RA and get blood tested every 3 months. Two months ago I was at 80. Before tested 67. One has to take ALOT to really reap the benefits of the wonder vit D3, With vit K Complex. And YES, BIG improvement in my health. Along with my home made silver water and nasty oil oregano spray. Carrot juice is last resort. I still cycle colds. Instead of suffering for six weeks now six days of very, very mild symptoms. I am 68 and laugh at chinees virus.

          • 50:50 carrot/orange juice is actually quite tasty. I drink this and a tbs of chia seeds every morning, better than any multivitamin.

          • I read some posts about Carrot juice. There is no measurable amount of vit D or vit K in carrots from what I understand, though there are certainly health benefits – lots of good carotenoids. Be careful with juiced carrots if you do not want a significant amount of sugar.

        • It appears there are no D3 supplements sold in Canada with more than 1,000 iu per dose. I found only one vendor of D3 powder, and their website says it’s out of stock. Health Canada prohibits the importation of D3 supplements containing more than 1,000 iu per dose.

        • Do your best to get sun from through the low level of English insolation… Get enough of your body in the sun. To calibrate, if you turn a little pink, you got too much. I cannot find out how many equivalent IUs are made, but it was something like 20,000 IUs if I recall correctly

          https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20072137

      • Strange the study doesn’t mention that the BAME community are hugely over represented in the number of deaths. William references this just above but it’s a huge factor

        Tonyb

        • What’s also peculiar is having such poor resolution in the 50-69 range. I mean, if that’s where risk starts picking up, you’d think it would be good to break it down in to (say) 4 x 5 year groups, not one giant stonking 20 year cohort. Even the “seventies” get a resolution of ten years.

          If I were conspiratorially-minded I’d be wondering if they’re going to use this as an excuse to keep 50+ y/o people in isolation.

          • A few points , regarding BAME, vitamin D and the 50-69 age resolution.
            Certain ethnicities have a higher risk of co-morbidities at a younger age than Caucasians, e.g diabetic risk in southern Asian population aged 25+ is the same as the Caucasian risk aged 40+. Type 2 diabetes is more prevalent in these populations, therefore their risk from CoViD19 is higher for longer.
            These same groups also have a tendency to be vitamin D deficient for longer in the year as their skin tone reduces the production of vitamin D from sunlight at high latitudes.
            One of the essential precursors for vitamin D production from sunlight is cholesterol, which has been wrongly demonised by Ancel Keys as causing coronary heart disease.
            I am a nurse practitioner working in an urgent care centre In the U.K. that is seeing CoViD19 patients only, but because I am male, over 50 I cannot continue to work as I am high risk. A female has a similar risk over the age of 60.

          • John what back end protocol was your hospital using when a patients immune system put them in septic shock covid style?

            See evms.edu/covidcare it is why I ask

          • Terry, Sorry I can’t answer your question as I have no knowledge what happens in secondary (acute) care. Urgent care centres are primary care and if a patient presents as poorly then they are transferred to the emergency department. The criteria for transfer are Heart Rate > 130; Respiration rate > 24; Oxygen Saturations < 92% on air (non-COPD patients) 38.5. This is indicative of of a Cytokine storm or in a bacterial infection severe sepsis.
            If a patient has 100 < heart rate <130, 20<respiration rate<=24, 92%<=Saturations <95% then we provide prophylactic antibiotics.
            I'm not sure whether patients in ITU are intubated on ventilators in an induced coma or attached to CPAP/BiPAP machines (which is what I think Boris Johnson was on).

          • John
            When did you start anti infamation and anti coagulation treatments
            Immediately???

        • Tonyb, its also ‘strange’ that anyone with the ONS stats could have, and some did, get the results posted today by ‘his lordship’ some time ago.
          Its been very very clear who is at risk and why.
          In the UK the lockdown has been an unmitigated disaster. Locking up the healthy who need to get out and [pass on infection, and creating hot spots of infection in generah hospital wards and care homes.
          Now today apparently new is that BoJo and the rest have sold out to Gates and won’t go back to sanity until a vaccine is available.
          The real problem is that the BoE produced a money tree in 2008, and now its done it again. So everyone is jumping on the bandwagon to get something for nothing and 50% ( at least) of the population is happy to sit on the arses collecting funny money as long as its given out, and to hell with the consequences , because they are all so precious.
          The UK is doomed. And its not helped by advisors such as ‘his lordship’ .

        • Dr Roger seheult of mecram who treats covid patients only takes a precautionary 2500 iu of vitamin d
          See medcram update 59 for his vitamin schedule

        • I am shocked there isn’t a team entering all this data daily.
          Especially in New York. Matching the breakdown of patient co morbidities in each country is essential. Is the pattern of patient co morbidities the same in New York as uk ?

          • I’m guessing a lot of people who live in London are vitamin D deficient (lack of sun)

          • Obesity does not appear to be a major comorbidity. In this respect, the result confirms a similar conclusion from an earlier study of 2249 hospitalized patients by the Office for National Statistics.

          • Given that immunosenescence is also doing things to our elders…..and is also certainly the sole cause of higher morbidity among the old…

        • Nor do nursing home residents get sufficient minerals and micronutrients in their diet. Adding D3, zinc and selenium, perhaps with quercetin (ginko biloba extract) and they would probably be effectively immune to corona virus infections. But nobody seems to care.

      • Of course the corrupt FDA and NIH will never stress the importance of vitamin D as it will interfere with their Big Pharma friends making maximum profit.

      • I ride my bicycle outside for about an hour regularly in the sunshine. Assuming I’m getting good exposure, should I skip my 5000 IU VD supplement that day?

        • Not if you are using sunscreen on exposed skin…high altitude UV risk. I do 6000 regardless of sun.

          • Thanks. I generally use sunscreen on my knees, nose, cheeks, ears and neck and wear a hat (plus long or short sleeves, shorts, socks and shoes).

        • Don’t you get a comprehensive physical exam yearly, with a complete blood panel? My panel (analysis through Cleveland HeartLab) reports Vitamin D3 serum level. Based on that my doctor recommends 4000 IU daily.

      • vitamin D deficiency

        very informative

        thank you for sharing

        I need to take my vitamin D capsule now

      • Vitamine D is known to be needed for a good immune system. We also know that due to less outdoor activities (specially now with all the lock downs all over the world) we are not getting much exposure to the sun so our skin can produce vitamine D. With all this, I find it very strange that no government, health agency or disease control organization is recommending to strengthen the immune system by taking some extra vitamine D (and C).

        I am also taking my extra D’s.

      • I got my vitamin D shot the minute I left China in Jan.

        Cheap, easy, precautionary principle.

        I also got a pneumonia vaxx. Why? did not want to come down with regular old pneumonia
        and have to visit a hospital and end up catching covid.

        • Be careful about vitamin D injection. They tend to be D2 rather than the human form D3. D2 is much more toxic that D3 and less effective. It should not be considered suitable for mammal use.

          Do you know which form you received?

      • In the U.K. we have had glorious sunshine for most of the Lockdown.. Sunbathers wanting to top up their Vit D have been fined. The Stay Home Stay Safe mantra has been criminally insane.

        • Nobody has entered my garden to tell me not to sunbathe. Nobody has entered anyones garden to tell them the same. Only those who insist on sunbathing in parks or open spaces have been told to depart.

          I have noticed though, that this site seems to be infected with the same sort of people who make-up the twitter-bot comment section…..always against anything, and everything, no matter what.

          • John, you are lucky to have a garden. Not everyone is so lucky. If you live in a flat or bedsit, the park is the only option for you to get some sunshine… but it is currently not an option. More shame on the government/police for this situation!

          • You seem to assume that everyone has a garden just like you. A rather self – centred view of life.

          • Nobody has entered my garden to tell me not to sunbathe

            Speaking of a “twitter-bot” style posting, the self-centered view expressed in yours certainly qualifies. Not everyone has their own personal garden space, contrary to what you post seems to imply. What’s the poor apartment dweller to do? go to the local park… only to get yelled at by drone, snitched on by busybodies and/or threatened with fines and jail!

        • But the previous 2 monthsin the UK virtually no sunshine with storm after storm.
          So everybody was low on Vit D, especially those with darker skin tones.
          So lock them up in doors and make it even worse.
          You know what they say about governments, they treat the people like Mushrooms, keep them in the dark and feed them bull sh!t.

      • “…From the paper linked to below. “Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had Vitamin D insufficiency.”……..”

        Interesting. But note that low levels of Vitamin D are VERY common in Western countries – pretty much everyone has a Vitamin D insufficiency. So we need a bit more than correlation. After all, I suspect that pretty much 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had two legs as well…

        • So did pretty much 100% of patients that did not go to ICU have 2 legs. Vitamin D insufficiency is a discriminator. As those not in ICU have higher vitamin D levels than those in ICU.
          The entire reason for ‘elderly’ having worse outcomes could be due to insufficiency of many vitamins and minerals as ‘nursing homes’ do not tend to provide high enough levels of these nutrients in meals.

      • William

        Does VDI develop in the hospital or were the patients VDI before infection? VDI is not uncommon while “in” the hospital.

        I developed VDI while getting my heart bypass. This happened in four (4) days. It went away as I was able to get back to my routine in three weeks.

      • WRT coronavirus, none of this tells you which direction causality runs.

        An activated immune system consumes vitamin D. Were these people deficient before they got infected, or are they now deficient because the infection has used up their vitamin D?

      • Yes! It shows the folks with no comorbidities were 47% of the people included in the study. 53% had at least one comorbidity. Not much difference there! I don’t understand Vuk’s misdirected opening comment….

    • Yes, everyone says that, but this study shows obesity was a comorbidity in only 8%. What is the obesity rate in the general population?

      Perhaps those who were obese were the ones who died. Those figures aren’t shown.

      • I find it interesting – troubling – that the comorbitities of those who died is not listed. That is really the most important information. Those are the people who need to know this.

        • yes,

          These medical studies never supply the complete data.
          What you really want to see is the cross tab of age and morbidity.
          Along with a few other things .

          They have the data. Its already been anonymized. But they all just release results.

          Frustrating as hell

          • Race and even genetics within individual ethnic groups also have a big sway one way or the other, whether you stay asymptomatic or whether you go on to develop the full blown disease. Was also reading about some people and the meds they were on interacting, especially blood thinners assisted in not clotting for heart attacks, strokes and lower lung pneumonia clotting, and maybe not as bad as may have been had they not been on a blood thinner. So many variables and combinations of issues to consider, which we hardly know anything about. Yet. Hopefully someone is taking notes.

      • Obesity is one thing, but it’s only a symptom of the problem of constantly eating (regardless of the amount consumed), with lots of snacking between mealtimes — causing lots of insulin spikes.

        I think that spending more time in the fasted state could help anyone, including obese people.

        Consider:

        https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/05/29/what-happens-when-a-person-with-prediabetes-get-a-viral-infection-new-study-provides-in-depth-look/

        and

        https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/04/15/Glucose-metabolism-may-play-key-role-in-illness-with-flu-COVID-19/1721586968769/?sl=4

        then look into what happens to the body when fasting — insulin levels and blood pressure go down, you get a spurt of Human Growth Hormone, and autophagy occurs(all at different times). Fasting it also used to regenerate the immune systems of people who undergo cancer treatment and some people’s fatty livers are fixed over time and their metabolic health improves. It seems to be very beneficial in general, whether you are overweight or not, and some say that fasting leads to a longer life. It certainly saves a lot of time not cooking and eating all the time, and, also, it cuts down on thinking about what and when to eat all time, along with obsession if one is overeating.

        I’m not a doctor, just someone who has used fasting with very good results overall, so this is just a guess!

        • Addendum: I forgot to say that blood sugar goes down, it takes about 12 hours of fasting. So just skipping breakfast every has a good effect here.

    • Most old people are not obese (even if they were when younger), the obese generally kick off early from other diseases.

      This disease kills off mainly old people. Over 50% of deaths in MA for example were in nursing homes with average age of 80

      • In any given non-Covid year, what is the per centage of nursing home residents over the age of 80 who die in any given year? How does that compare with this year?

          • Since a very high proportion of the deaths associated with the Chinese virus are in care homes, it is likely that the excess mortality from the virus in this sector is very high.

          • The epitaph of WB Yeats

            Cast a cold eye
            on life, on death
            Horseman pass me by.

            Which brings me to the point when all is said and done the only way we will know the severity of the Wu-Flu is by the average age of death, or life expectancy. It will lower by probably about 2 weeks. In other words you will be expected as a man to live for 77.94 years post Wu Flu as apposed too 78 years now.

    • The tabular chart list obesity comorbidity as 8%.
      Diabetes at 6%

      Not overwhelming contributions.

      As with other claims regarding obesity, I do not see any indication the totals accounted for the general population’s obesity percentage.

      • ATheoK may have missed the 19% “diabetes without complications” comorbidity in the table. Taken with the 8% “diabetes with complications”, some 27% of the sample had diabetes as a comorbidity.

    • YES!

      High body mass index and the maladies associated with it such as diabetes, hypertension,

    • Christopher Monckton of Brenchley wrote “Those aged 50-69 were 4 times likelier to die than those under 50: those in their 70s were 10 times likelier to die; those over 80 were 14 times likelier to die; females were 20% less likely to die than males.”

      Do we really know this for sure? Do we really know the incidence and prevalence? One would assume we have have this number by now but alas not!

      • In response to Rickk, the figures I have cited are from the source I have cited. They are consistent with similar work carried out by Britain’s Office for National Statistics. If Rick has any contrary evidence, perhaps he will be kind enough to provide references to it.

    • The same people who are at risk during the seasonal flu. Us old folks and those with underlying medical conditions.

    • No. Only 8% had that comorbidity. If you use BMI as a means of assesing obesity than is has no meaning. By the way this was most definitely coincidence because 47% had no comorbidity. That’s half or the toss of a coin.

      The disease caused by the Chinese virus is not more lethal when a comorbidity is present. That’s what the data tells us.

  1. We still need to know the total proportion of in the population who have been exposed to the virus enough to have developed antibodies for it. The data presented here are valuable for supporting the conclusion that, if you get a bad case of coronavirus, serious enough to require hospital care, then you have a serious risk of dying. What the data don’t tell us is whether maintaining a national state of house arrest is helping enough to justify its staggering cost. If we could know that half the population has already been exposed to the virus, then we’d be ready to make some educated extrapolations about what the risk would be of getting everyone back to work.

    • Even worse, we don’t know the total proportion of in the population who have been exposed to the virus and have not developed antibodies for it (also known as a natural immunity). This seems to be a bat virus, and people are naturally immune to many animal diseases.

      • No antibodies, no immunity. There is no such thing as “natural immunity”. This is a Novel Virus.
        We have no immunity in the population. Only those that have been exposed to it, and developed immunity through the production of antibodies.
        You are confusing asymptomatic infection versus symptomatic infection.

          • I am not going to play your game.

            When a virus enters the body, it triggers the body’s immune defenses. These defenses begin with white blood cells, such as lymphocytes and monocytes, which learn to attack and destroy the virus or the cells the virus has infected. If the body survives the virus attack, some of the white blood cells remember the invader and are able to respond more quickly and effectively to a subsequent infection by the same virus. This response is called immunity. Immunity can also be produced by getting a vaccine.

            For a person to have immunity for a Novel virus they must go through this process. There is no documented “natural immunity” to this virus. If you know of one produce it.

          • Darling, should you have googled “natural immunity”, you would have found at
            https://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/natural+immunity:
            “natural immunity The ability to resist infection that does not depend on prior experience of the invading organism and the resultant production of antibodies or amendment or selection of LYMPHOCYTES. Natural immunity is a general and non-specific resistance to infection possessed by all healthy individuals. Also known as natural resistance.”

            Play your own game, use your toys, but don’t tell me that my toys don’t exist.

            You are absolutely right, there is no documented natural immunity to this virus, that’s exactly what I am objecting to – apparently, no one is looking for it.

          • As I understand it, natural immunity is a general immunity to all diseases, but not a specific immunity to a particular disease.

            And what they are referring to here is that humans do not have a specific immunity to the disease.

          • And it doesn’t apply to a Novel virus. This is immunity we have acquired as a species that is inherited. Do you think a crocodile would only gain immunity to all the viruses it is exposed to, through the infection process?
            Our systems do not recognize this virus because it has not infected us as a species before. So no natural immunity.
            Some children may have temporary immunity, but that does not fit the definition of what immunity is.

          • So you don’t believe that you are naturally immune to the hoof-and-mouth disease. Nor do you believe that people with one gene for a sickle-cell anemia are naturally immune to malaria. Live long and prosper.

          • I didn’t say any of those things. Why do you feel the need to make up stuff and say that is what I think??
            What I said is there is “no natural immunity to a novel virus”, which you stated needed to be counted.
            0
            I just counted it.

          • “Our systems do not recognize this virus because it has not infected us as a species before. So no natural immunity.”

            Healthy immunity is able to detect things that don’t belong in the body, whether innate or adaptive immunity. How do you think millions of infected people have survived? Their innate immunity protected them.

          • Most animal viruses can’t infect humans because humans lack the protein that the virus takes advantage of. This is not a “natural immunity”, whatever the heck that is.

        • There my be some “immunity” due to exposure of the other four COVID out there that my explain why the young are less affected they have had one of the other COVIDs recently were us old folk have not had it for years, there not enough COVID antibodies left in our bodies to make a difference.

          • Plus, the aged immune system is inherently defective due to the degeneration of the thymus gland.

        • Nonsense – you only need to look at the figures what percentage of the UK population has been infected by this virus that is claimed to be extremely contagious? 3% 5% if that. With the underground in London with 5 million passenger journeys a day crammed together – all of London should be infected – it isn’t. That is because all animals have innate immunity that will prevent infections even before the adaptive immunity needs to get into action.
          It appears from the discussion that Vitamin D and Zinc are part of this. Intracellular Zinc interferes with the virus attempt to hijack the RNA replication mechanism to multiply. That is not an accident, those protohumans with this mechanism survived better than those without. Similarly, generation of vitamin D in the skin is part of the same innate immune system.
          The adaptive system only needs to get involved when the innate system fails – and in COVID-19 when the adaptive immune system gets involved it can cause worse problems by initiating a cytokine storm.

        • Natural immunity seems to be a way of saying that a virus does not possess the particular “key” it needs to enter cells. That is why some viruses have no effect on some organisms. COVID-19 does have the keys to enter some human cells, so there is no natural immunity.

        • Not saying you’re wrong, Russ R., but I’m wondering how you know that.

          I’ve seen researchers stating (speculating?) that the COVID antibody test cross reacts with anitbodies for other coronaviri, and that infection with some other coronaviri confers a degree of immunity to COVID-19. That, in fact, this is the reason there are so many symptomless COVID-19 cases.

          Do you have evidence the above is false?

    • “If we could know that half the population has already been exposed to the virus, then we’d be ready to make some educated extrapolations about what the risk would be of getting everyone back to work.”

      New York STATE stands at around 13% infected.

      Total cases ~ 19M * .13 = 2.5 Million infected people
      Total cases reported = 325K

      New York city is higher ~20-25%

      The Percent infected wont ever be used to determine the end of lock downs.

      However, it can help in modelling hospital burdens

    • Or maybe, they don’t waste precious ventilators on those not at the greatest risk.
      Hence the correlation.

      • I’m sure that depends on the hospital. Many doctors and hospital administrators intubate out of fear of aerosolization.

        Yesterday, an ED doc says “if they don’t do well with 6 liters by NC, we tube them. Not risking exposing staff to aerosolization with higher flow O2.” oy…

        https://twitter.com/signaturedoc/status/1250072724057264128

        I imagine there’s also financial incentive to intubate in the US because Medicare pays 3x more for an intubated patient than a non-intubated covid patient, and intubated patients require much less work and attention.

        • That’s manslaughter not to continue nasal O2 but intubate because the staff might get the disease.

      • Really, M. Courtney?

        Than the totals only reflect areas where hospitals do not have sufficient ventilators. Not an issue here in the USA.

        Ventilation requires that the patient is paralyzed so that the ventilator does not cause significant internal damage.
        Patients that survive ventilation require weeks to month of therapy to:
        A) deal with paralytic drug withdrawal
        B) recover muscle strength and stamina
        C) and possibly most important, allow the other affected internal organs to heal and recover, if then can.

        • I may have to put how i want to be treated if i go into hosptital in my heath care directive.

          I will want to understand their covid septic shock protocol…

          • An earlier post did not show up, I do not believe

            There is nothing in this about the covid sepsis shock treatment these patients received.

            With out knowing that, numbers do not mean much

    • Overall death rate 39%. Death rate for those on ventilators around 50%.
      Considering that only the sickest are put on ventilators, the numbers don’t support your belief.

      • Ventilator death rates run as high as 80+%. In many places, patients are put on ventilators simply because doctors and administrators don’t want to risk virus aerosolization that can result from higher flow therapies. Many times doctors simply follow protocol instead of conforming treatment to an illness they don’t understand. That’s all documented by doctors and experts, so I think the evidence very much does support my belief. Basically you have no evidence to support your own belief and are just running your mouth, as usual, to take a swipe at me for some reason. So while you’re trying to blow smoke up my ass, you can just go ahead and kiss my ass.

  2. Christopher,
    Do you have any information on how the antibody test regime is progressing?
    Has an effective antibody test been perfected yet, or is the general corona virus antibody test still the only one available.
    If that is still the case, then we are no further forward in knowing precisely how many people have contracted Sars Cov 2 aka Covid 19 in the general population.
    We need the specific Covid 19 antibody test to enable us to know what the herd condition actually is.

  3. Still pretty incomplete/problematical data in all honesty.

    But mortality profile appears much like the 2015 influenza A(H3N2).

    The lockdown always was a crazy overreaction, now the government is trapped, waiting fro some occurrence like an effective treatment or a vaccine so they can get out of it fully without looking like idiots.

    We’ll probably still be making crucifix signs at each other in the streets 18 months from now.

    What a fiasco.

    • Absolutely. The overreaction in America is because a certain political party adores a good crisis. Mmm mm mm … give the left a “shocking” crisis … and they’re head over heels giddy with excitement. The woke leftists like nothing better than “saving” you from yourself. Saving you from a crisis. Crises bestows unlimited POWER upon leftist politicians like CA’s Gavin Newsom. Crisis triggers his inner fascist to come gurgling out of his evil gullet. SHUT DOWN the (conservative) Orange Co. Beaches! You’re not “safe” on a beach! “You’re not socially distanced on a beach”. Arrrghh!!

      Sorry to argue with the guest author here … but the American Left does NOT believe old people are “canny enough to look after themselves”. Oh no! They need a nation of ‘Karens’ telling them what to do, and how to do it. Sorry … wrong kind of a mask. Sorry, you’re wearing your mask wrong. Sorry, Joe Biden, it’s no longer safe to sniff little girls hair. Yes … life is going to be quite different now that the leftists have SEIZED emergency powers. They’ve got us all … right where they want us.

      • I’m not sure how we get out of this mess.

        Remember the stories of Biden swimming nude in the presence of female SS agents? Have you seen any of the videos of government officials unable to demonstrate how to put on a mask?

          • In response to those who complain that lockdowns were unnecessary, that issue has been decided by governments in the worst-affected countries (typically, countries with dense populations and little sunshine). They introduced lockdowns because otherwise their hospitals and morgues would have been overwhelmed, as London and New York very nearly were because the lockdowns were so late.

            It is data such as those in the head posting that will guide the way out of lockdowns in those territories that have them. The most important data are 1) that young people are not much at risk; 2) that Sweden, with low urban population density and a small mean household size and a generally sensible population, has done just as well as many lockdown countries in controlling the pandemic (though its numbers are worse than for locked-down Scandinavian countries); 3) that the one proven prophylactic against respiratory infections is Vitamin D3, which is inexpensive and should be made compulsory, particularly for the over-50s.

          • “difficult to achieve specificity by distinguishing between this and other coronaviridae.”

            Is this not part of the CV riddle where as I understand it the labs are yet to isolate a specific virus able to pass Koch’s Postulates? If this is the case how then can we call it novel and rely on the current testing regime?

          • …and should be made compulsory…

            And again you reveal your true self, Monckton of Brenchley.

          • The year was 1968. The flu was the Hong Kong flu. According to the CDC (as of yesterday) an estimated 100,000 Americans died of that flu, and one million worldwide.

            The year was 1968. 9.2 million people visited Disneyland, from all over the world. Did they shut down Disneyland? No, they did not. Did they shut down restaurants? No, they did not. Did they ban flights? No. Did they even stop people from smoking on flights? No. Did they force people to show signs of obedience by wearing face masks? No.

            People can decide for themselves how they want to handle something similar to a bad flu: we’ve done this before. They may make the wrong decisions, and that would be an evil. But a greater evil is the heavy hand of government– from the left or the right– coming down and deciding what’s best for the people, because this power, if exercised in an extraordinary manner as in this crisis, can easily lead to abuse: we need only recall that Hitler’s Enabling Act was called a “Law to Remedy the Distress of People and the Reich.” Those were emergency powers in 1933.

            Letting people decide for themselves how they want to protect themselves from a bad flu is the lesser of two evils. Any government overreach should have been stopped dead in its tracks, but instead we had a world-wide assent to government-imposed lockdown. Flues come, people die. Get over it.

            If the hospitals were to be overloaded, then that’s too damn bad: get the resources to build new hospitals if you need to, and ask the Chinese if you don’t know how to do this. It’s too damn bad that we had to wreck the economy and impose a worldwide quasi-police state, too. We had no choice in deciding which “too damn bad” we preferred. The heavy hand of governments world-wide decided for us. We are now their children, and they will tell us when we can go out, what kind of mask we have to wear, and how far apart we have to stand. It’s for our own good, so they tell us, and they took a page right out of Hitler’s playbook to remedy our distress, only it wasn’t a new law; they just went ahead and did it. They did it by 24/7 fear mongering so that the people assented, and said, “yes, take away our freedoms, this is better than dying!”

            Now all they have to do is say “boo!” and we’ll go crying back to our caves. Nice job!

          • My own personal physician is a strong believer in D3 … and I have been supplementing with it for years now. Smart man, my doctor.

      • The leftists have seized emergency powers and we have a President that is on the right side of the spectrum. And we have Republicans controlling the senate.

        How do people come up with this nonsense?

    • I have ordered my Plague Doctor Mask and an herbal sachet from AmaXon. They obviously worked 400 years ago, certainly as effectively as cheapo virtue signaling masks.

    • “The lockdown always was a crazy overreaction, now the government is trapped, waiting fro some occurrence like an effective treatment or a vaccine so they can get out of it fully without looking like idiots.”
      The lockdown in rural remote communities was not necessary. Situational leadership would have recognized that from the start.
      Instead we had top down broad based directives. The financial harm to local living economy is serious. Was this intentional?

      • In response to Sommr, paranoia is understandable during an emergency of this kind, but is not helpful. Typically, governments impose statewide restrictions because otherwise there would be substantial migrations from heavily-affected and hence heavily-restricted urban population centers to the countryside, helping to ensure that the infection is spread everywhere.

  4. Interesting, listing to a hospital doctor from the New York area on one of the news programs mentioned a significantly large % of Covid 19 patients that died were obese, far more than in the results from the UK study.

    might be worth a follow up

    • The basic number of obese people in the US is probably higher than the UK. They have been working on it for longer.

      • Last I looked, the UK actually had a higher rate of type-2 diabetes than the US. This suggests a higher obesity rate than the US. But the “people of Walmart” meme dies hard. I guess the fatties of America are more visible than the fatties of England. That’s because all the fatties live in the godforsaken north of England, eh? Or does the fattie-zone stretch allll the way down to the midlands?

        Is there a YouTube showing the “people of wimpy’s”?

        • I think they probably look harder for diabetes in the UK than they do in the USA. Given an equal screening effort who knows?

        • “Results Among those aged 20-64 the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes was lower in England (2.7%) than in the USA (5.0%). The proportion with diabetes receiving treatment was similar for the two countries. However, the mean HbA1c in England was 7.6%: in the USA it was 7.5% for those with insurance and 8.6% for those without insurance” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1557885/

          • Why not use the INTERNATIONAL Health “experts” … the WHO …

            USA:
            https://www.who.int/diabetes/country-profiles/
            Diabetes (men and women): 9.1%
            Diabetes (men): 9.8%
            Overweight (men): 74.1% (women):65.3%
            Obesity (men) 33.7%

            UK
            https://www.who.int/diabetes/country-profiles/gbr_en.pdf
            Diabetes (men and women): 7.7%
            Diabetes (men): 8.4%
            Overweight (men): 71.1% (women): 62.4%
            Obesity (men) 28.5%

            OK … America is … SLIGHTLY … fatter and more diabetic than the U.K. … slightly. I’d dare say nobody would notice the difference between 71% of the Men of Wimpy’s -vs- 74.1% of the Men of Walmart as fatties. Meh. Yeah … the UK men are 3% “leaner” than we FAT Americans … yawn.

    • You’re in luck!
      According to the one study I read A is most susceptible, O is least. (I’m A)

    • I’m A+ … which I believe is the absolute worst for CHICOM-19. I’m hiding in my home like a shut-in … I even sleep with my mask on, and have stuffed rags under my bedroom door. Why? Because the geniuses at MIT said 6ft social distancing is “not enough” … we need 21ft minimum. And since MIT is … science … well … I’m in permanent hiding till “science” builds a cure for the Chinese killer virus

      • Kenji I wouldn’t worry too much 21 feet if someone coughs or sneezes, which you would be aware of. Viruses don’t have muscles where they could leap from person to person, the virus spreads by touching a contaminated surface and then ingesting the live virus. Covid 19’s high mortality and morbidity is due to the higher longevity of C19 on surfaces compared to other viruses.

    • Type O is less susceptible to getting into serious trouble due to less clotting propensity.

  5. The extraordinary thing is 92% of deaths were in 11, mainly , 1st world countries without anyone knowing whether these deaths were “with” the corona virus or “of” the corona virus.

    That’s what you get when you do the equivalent of estimating temp data. You can start to convince the world there is a problem.

    • The sad state of science and medicine is remarkable. Still, not that long ago, fat patients would be virtually non-existent and their cure would be to drain them of their blood.

  6. The thing that stands out in the U.S. is that the majority of positive cases and deaths occur in large, older cities and their immediate surrounding area. I did some research on Michigan this morning before commenting on another site.
    The entire State of Michigan has 4020 recorded deaths from COVID-19. (as of 5/01/20)
    The City of Detroit accounted for 1085 of those deaths.
    In Wayne County, where Detroit is located, there were 799 deaths in addition to those in the City of Detroit.
    46.9% of all COVID-19 deaths in Michigan are in that area.
    Two adjacent Counties, Macomb and Oakland, accounted for 625 and 745 additional deaths each.
    Nearby Genese County, where the City of Flint is, has recorded 196 deaths.
    That brings the total deaths in that area to 3450 out of 4020; 85.8 % of all deaths in the entire State of Michigan. 87% of those deaths were over the age of 60. There was no data on pre-existing conditions.
    Yet the Governor of the State has locked down and continues to lock down the ENTIRE State.
    To me that makes no sense.

      • We must ensure that such petty tyrants cannot come to power again, they must be punished with great prejudice.

    • The demographics in those areas would show a large proportion of blacks living on public assistance, and obesity in Michigan, especially among blacks, is among the worst in the nation. Those areas also constitute the democratic governor’s base (in addition to Ann Arbor, Lansing and a few other areas).

      Could it be that her base thinks they are being taken care of by the governor?

      • So you’re ADMITTING! This is a RACIST virus!? Ohhh mammaaa … Chinese virus passed into the black community by WHITE CIA agents … just like with … the crack. Racists!!

  7. this virus is mild, but it activates in genetically predisposed individuals SIRS(systemic inflammatory response syndrome), which actually kills patients. once we figure out why some people are prone to such out of proportion response, we will master not only these but also sepsis of any kind. gimsilumab, gelsolin- this is only the beginning of massive revolution in medicine

    • It would then follow that those with SIRS should be given immune suppressants and they will survive. But what doctor would do that? What if they died anyway and it was blamed on a suppressed immune system?

  8. How can their be a median in the seventies when there have been infants hospitalised?

    • CDC report-
      “For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons”

      Children die of flu. Not of Corona.

        • “For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons”

      • usually pneumonia from flu
        not the actual flu itself
        which is odd cos Prevnar is pretty good as far as vax goes
        and few kids escape it

    • Hardly any infants have been hospitalized, but lots of people in the 70s and 80s have been.

    • What’s the median of this set?

      1, 3, 70, 71, 73
      Answer: 70

      What’s the average?
      Answer: 43.6

    • If you go to Powerlineblog.com you can find the data on Minnesota deaths due to the Wuflu. The average age at death is 83 and something like 70 – 80% of those deaths are from nursing homes. But those fatalities (of the total number of deaths in Minnesota) having comorbidities is 99.24%. A pretty stunning percentage of deaths can be associated with age and ill health. The young and healthy have almost nothing to worry about.

  9. Some of these statistics can be misleading to people not familiar with understanding them – for example it appears from the above statistics that people with diabetes and no complications are more likely to die then people with diabetes and have complications, but I am sure that isn’t right.

    What is missing is what ratio (or percentage) each set of commodities is of the total population in the data set. So I expect that people with diabetes and complications makes up a much smaller subset then does people with diabetes and no complications – in fact I would hazard a guess that diabetes+no complications has *more* than 3 times the number of people in it then diabetes+complication…that or there is something really weird going on with the disease.

    Dementia is another really strange correlation to track – I suspect it is highly correlated with age and therefore higher risk of death but not actually part of the cause of death. One could just as easily correlate gray hair with risk of death.

    There are other correlations that seem unrelated but could actually be interesting: Color of eyes, hair, and skin. I would not be surprised if certain human populations are more or less susceptible to this disease and eye+hair+skin color might uncover these. (Note: I avoid the term “race” as it seems too broad and careless to be useful).

    The difference in outcomes based on sex is interesting, but likely is a correlation to some other sex-difference like heart disease, hypertension, etc.

    • People with darker complexions living in temperate rather than tropic zones make less vitamin D in their skin, which is why lighter complexions evolved, via two different mutations.

    • Robert of Texas
      May 3, 2020 at 2:38 pm

      for example it appears from the above statistics that people with diabetes and no complications are more likely to die then people with diabetes and have complications, but I am sure that isn’t right.
      ———————

      Maybe, just maybe, people with diabetes and/+ extra other complications or complexities with their health and immune situation are more careful and more responsible, therefor more “insulated”, within the medications, treatments and possible therapies they take,
      than people that simply have only diabetes.

      cheers

      • Some of them may not have even realised they had diabetes, as they didn’t differentiate what type it was.

  10. Non-peer reviewed at MedRxiv: Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

    Abstract:

    Background: COVID-19 is a major pandemic that has killed more than 196,000 people. The COVID-19 disease course is strikingly divergent. Approximately 80-85% of patients experience mild or no symptoms, while the remainder develop severe disease. The mechanisms underlying these divergent outcomes are unclear. Emerging health disparities data regarding African American and homeless populations suggest that vitamin D insufficiency (VDI) may be an underlying driver of COVID-19 severity. To better define the VDI-COVID-19 link, we determined the prevalence of VDI among our COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) patients.

    Methods: In an Institutional Review Board approved study performed at a single, tertiary care academic medical center, the medical records of COVID-19 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Subjects were included for whom serum 25-hydroxycholecalcifoerol (25OHD) levels were determined. COVID-19-relevant data were compiled and analyzed. We determined the frequency of VDI among COVID-19 patients to evaluate the likelihood of a VDI-COVID-19 relationship.

    Results: Twenty COVID-19 patients with serum 25OHD levels were identified; 65.0% required ICU admission.The VDI prevalence in ICU patients was 84.6%, vs. 57.1% in floor patients. Strikingly, 100% of ICU patients less than 75 years old had VDI. Coagulopathy was present in 62.5% of ICU COVID-19 patients, and 92.3% were lymphocytopenic.

    Conclusions: VDI is highly prevalent in severe COVID-19 patients. VDI and severe COVID-19 share numerous associations including hypertension, obesity, male sex, advanced age, concentration in northern climates, coagulopathy, and immune dysfunction. Thus, we suggest that prospective, randomized controlled studies of VDI in COVID-19 patients are warranted.

    • Causation and correlation problem.

      People with VDI might just not be as healthy and mobile so not going out and getting into the sun as much.

      You need very detailed data to rule this out.

      • In an emergency? Is lots double-blind testing for D3 supplements really necessary?

        • I am most grateful to Pat Frank for the link to the Vitamin D3 study. I shall feature it in an upcoming column.

          • Thank-you for that, Chris. For your use, here are a couple more perhaps authoritative references.

            Jonathan M. Rhodes1, et al., (2020) Invited Editorial: low population mortality from COVID-19 in countries south of latitude 35 degrees North supports vitamin D as a factor determining severity, Aliment Pharmacol. Ther. 00:1–4. here

            P. E. Marik, et al., (2020) Does vitamin D status impact mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection? Medicine in Drug Discovery Journal pre-proof, accepted, but prior to publication, here.

            Both propose a link between low serum vitamin D3 and increased covid-19 mortality.

            I’ve attached pdf versions in an email to you.

        • “In an emergency? Is lots double-blind testing for D3 supplements really necessary?”

          You should treat VDI in any case. That’s not the issue.

          But it is important to not jump to conclusions in regard to COVID-19 susceptibility.

  11. I can’t see from the data any particular link to obesity unless that is obesity that had not been previously identified as a morbidity. I have no clue what chronic heart disease is – sounds like a catch all term. I am assuming someone somewhere has done some work, as Pat Frank asks, onVitamin D3. I would like explaned why ethnic groups across different countries have different outcomes and I cannot believe it is entirely down to socio eocnomic factors.

    And, of course, the most important thing which the study does not address is, in broad terms, where and how was the infection acquired?

    • Mentioning obesity would be fat shaming, so is not tolerated. Actually, there has been a lot of anecdotal mentioning of obesity being a negative factor.

  12. Some Corona numbers for you guys. Interesting that Sweden – the only one of the below territories to not lock down and instead try for “herd immunity” – Has the lowest % of population affected, and the second lowest for the % of deaths. The strategy seems to be working for them. Also interesting that despite the media narrative of how hard the US has been hit, it has the lowest % of population deceased, yet NY has the highest % of population deceased. Could it be the way NY treat their patients? how they record their autopsies/stats? Didn’t have time to check out other countries like AU, Italy, Spain etc. Stats taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ dated 26 April

    • On another blog I visit there are a cluster of people huffing and puffing about what a disaster Sweden is. When I look at it they seem to be tracking mid stream in Europe without crippling themselves. I guess it comes down to predictions of doom.

      • Try looking at Czechia who have the 10 million population.
        Also look at the other small population Nordic countries.

      • I’ve seen data comparing Sweden to Michigan. They have similar demographics. Michigan, where you can’t buy plant seed for your garden, appears to be doing slightly worse.

        • You can buy plant seed in Michigan now. That order was rescinded a week ago. What’s wrong in Michigan is you can’t get your hair cut. If you’re a contractor, you can’t get permits for construction. You can’t go to a restaurant to eat. As was mentioned in an earlier comment, most of the outbreak in Michigan was in Detroit and its suburbs. Some restrictions in those areas might have made sense. But the rest of the state didn’t need them. And we let the Governor know that by protests in Lansing.

      • Sweden’s death rate per million population is higher than for the US.
        Swedens confirmed cases per million population are lowere than for the US but the Swedes haven’t done much testing. And the other Nordic countries have done better than Sweden.

        It seems most wealthy, small, culturally homogenous countries have done better than larger, more culturally diverse countries.
        Compare Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Greece, Singapore, South Korea with UK, France.
        India ? We’ll see. Russia is also on the up.

        There are obviously other factors at work as well…compare Germany and Switzerland.
        Belgium compared with everybody else

    • If the numbers were correct, the conclusion would be that locking down a community increases the infection rate. That, of course, is illogical. Further, if you compare Sweden’s deaths to their infections, it is far higher than most other countries.

      I suspect they simply are not testing and counting the number of infections the same way as other countries. Who knows? Everything is a best (and not so best) guess.

    • Sweden is on the high end for normalized infection and death rates not the low end.

      Nevertheless, the situation is not out of control or extreme. Still, one must wait longer for a meaningful analysis of the effectiveness of their strategy.

      • Scissor
        May 3, 2020 at 3:27 pm

        “Still, one must wait longer for a meaningful analysis of the effectiveness of their strategy.”
        ——————
        Short time, direct impact by their own means shows to be effective.
        They done their best, in not destroying their economy, but you see they too depend on global.
        A global economical, manufacturing, production and trade collapse will frack them too.
        You know there is a very clear sound warning in the history of this world;
        It is devastating wars and mass collapse of social-civic structures that causes plague diseases, the real blossom of death, not the other way around.

        Sharp and steep decline of living standards, of or in the “herd”, is a very certain way to jeopardize what known as herd immunity.
        Global imprisonment of the “herd”, if persisted for long enough could very much so lead to such as herd immunity double jeopardy… kinda a situation where death really get wings,
        due to a significant, sharp and steep downturn in living standards of the
        global “herd” (population). (kinda the “Slaughter House” instead of “Animal Farm”)

        Swedes can afford what they doing, very easily, with no much regard about the opinion of the rest, but still cannot afford the rest fracking up big time.

        A situation where really one got to seriously and carefully consider “what is wishing for”.

        cheers

      • Sweden really seems to mitigating the impact. That one could potentially be said.

        But if this strategy is superior in the long run in comparison to other countries that contained the spread is still an open question. So far it doesn’t look like it.

        My personal opinion is that the outcome in the long run depends on the soon development and availability of a working vaccine.

        People are not complaint to stay in shelter too long. That could compromise all efforts taken so far and drive other countries that performed way better so far down the same road of development as Sweden.

        Cause it’s not about policies, it’s about people’s behavior.

    • Sweden does very poor compared to Norway and Finland, both of which have locked down.

      Sweden’s death rate is 2210 per million, Norway’s death rate is 1447 per million, and Finland’s death rate is 948 per million.

      • That’s easy. “Ten t’ousand Svedes ran t’ru de veeds, pursued by vun Norvegian.” And the Finns are even tougher than the Norskies – on a hockey rink, anyway.

      • Sweden has 265 deaths pr million, Norway has 39 deaths pr million, Finland has 42 deaths pr million from COVID-19 (worldometers.info). The last weeks Norway and Finland have negative numbers of excess deaths. The lockdowns and measures taken result in less than average deaths.

      • Many people seem to think this is like some kind of baseball batting score table. It is not.

        You need to wait for the long term outcomes since the principal of confinement ( no one is in “lockodwn” ) is to DELAY the spread of infections, not prevent them. Come back in 6mo and tell us whether Danmark and Norway won the season batting averages in Scandinavia.

    • The country you should compare all others with is Taiwan; the wealthiest per capita country on the globe. They have so far 432 cases and 6 deaths with near zero economic impact from CV19. They had a plan that centred on closing border early. (They warned the WHO in December 2019 of the risks. ) They then effectively traced contacts of positive cases through all available means; mostly electronic. They eradicated the virus within 2 weeks of their peak in assessed cases.

      Sweden has so far resolved 3684 cases. 2,679 (73%) of those cases were deaths. The simplicity of the Swedish strategy avoids the need to trace contacts. Inevitably those that are assessed as positive at hospital admission are already seriously ill, So most of them die. So far they have 22,317 cases. So if their fatality rate remains at 73% then they have already locked in 16,291 deaths from CV19.

      South Korea, Australia and New Zealand were all slower than Taiwan to recognise the risk but all had effective contact tracing teams in place. These countries have all but eradicated the virus from within their borders.

      • Rickwill is right: early action to test, track and trace is what defeats pandemics of this kind. South Korea and Taiwan did exactly the right thing, and South Korea’s government benefited by being re-elected with the largest majority in recent history.

        • How long do they have to continue strict border controls for? How susceptible to new outbreaks do they remain? What impact will this have on their ability to travel and receive visitors, their tourism industry?

          • International travel between Australia and New Zealand is already being sorted.

            I expect there will be a growing club of countries that have eradicated the virus. Travel between them will be unhindered.

            Travel from infected countries will require quarantine upon entry until there is a vaccine. Those entering could avoid quarantine if they are immune and not a potential carrier.

            Precautions on interpersonal contact will continue but greater freedom of travel and association. The contact tracing teams will remain in place. Australia has taken up the Singapore developed contact tracing app. The contract tracing processes they have developed are very effective at tracking and isolating sources.

            Countries seeking herd immunity will be at it for years unless there is an effective vaccine. The death rate in countries that have effectively eradicated CV19 is around 2%, which is one to two orders of magnitude higher than seasonal flu. So interpersonal contact will need to be restricted for years to avoid overloading the medical infrastructure until the virus is eradicated; there is 80% or so with immunity to naturally slow the spread or there is an effective vaccine. It is very hard to get the genie back in once it is out.

  13. I can’t see from the table any particular link to obesity unless that is obesity that had not been previously identified as a morbidity. I have no clue what chronic heart disease is – sounds like a catch all term. I am assuming someone somewhere has done some work, as Pat Frank asks, onVitamin D3. I would like explaned why ethnic groups across different countries have different outcomes and I cannot believe it is entirely down to socio economic factors.

    And, of course, the most important thing which the study does not address is, in broad terms, where and how was the infection acquired?

    • In response to Mr Jones, the Office for National Statistics has concluded that the most likely reason for the excess mortality over and above the reported Chinese-virus infections is unreported Chinese-virus infections. A 50:50 distribution between male and female in the excess-mortality figures is not a large enough difference from 60:40 to call that conclusion into question.

    • Non-Covid19 excess deaths will naturally include both undetected Covid-19 deaths and a lot of deaths that had nothing to do with Covid-19, you can’t directly compare the male/female ratio between the two groups.

  14. This is a study of hospitalized patients, diagnosed with COVID-19.

    I’m interested in a study of the whole population, where this specific segment is a subset.

    People die in hospitals — not that unusual. Many older people die in hospitals — not that unusual. There are studies that focus on the issue of deaths in hospitals and trends in hospital deaths.

    I’m not seeing how a study focused on hospitalized patients tells us a great deal more than we already realized about COVID-19. This study solidifies this realization, granted.

    But I still have concerns about the accuracy of testing for the disease-causing pathogen and the correct appraisal of underlying cause of death.

    Every little bit of info helps, for sure, but, so far, the info still seems to be about a limited population, namely the most severely affected population, located in sites that treat the most severely affected.

    Lock downs and distancing have been instituted based on the most severely affected, tested and treated at locations designed specifically for the most severely affected — thereby punishing the whole population based on a segment of the population. Reminds me of teachers in my grade-school years who punished the whole class, because of one or two student’s behavior, or my high school track coach who made the whole team run extra laps, because a few misbehaving members didn’t meet his expectations.

  15. “Median” is usually used to designate the numerical middle point of some set of numbers.
    In this case, a median age of 72 for hospitalizations simply means an equal number of patients were under 72 as over 72.
    “Median” is not the same as the midpoint of the range of ages.
    SR

  16. only 8% obese? I find that hard to believe. They must use a loose definition of obesity.

    From a Vitamin D perspective, 15 minutes of body exposure of a higher angle Sun a day will give you plenty. For enough UV-B to get through the atmosphere, the Sun needs to be 35-40 deg or higher, which is a big issue for anyone above say Atlanta in the NH during Dec/Jan. In the UK that puts you at risk for half the year.

    • The other day I heard a mother say that her 36 yo son died of CV-19 and he had no underlying issues, other than being a little overweight. He weighed 400 pounds.

    • In response to philf, I have mentioned hydroxychloroquine briefly in one or two previous pieces, but have explained that it should only be taken on the advice of a doctor because it has dangerous side-effects in some patients. Like many other nostrums that have been mentioned, if it works at all (and the literature seems to speak with forked tongue on that issue), it is only likely to work if administered in the very early stages after symptoms show.

      • “it is only likely to work if administered in the very early stages after symptoms show”

        Or even better, start taking it before then, from now until this is over, as a preventative.
        That and Vitamin D and and a few other things.

        At those low dosages, the side effects are grossly exaggerated.

        And research which hospitals have treatment regimes that work. Just in case.

        • It is not the virus that kills you. It is your bodies immune system. Improper backend care of covid is the thing no one is discussing

          • People are conditioned not to see iatrogenesis. It’s a huge paradigm shift for most people.

  17. That smoking is in only 5% of ‘comorbidities’ is counterintuitive (I gave up 45 years ago) but the cardiac disease, non-asthmatic lung disease and cancer categories may also include past or present smokers.

  18. One critical piece of info missing from the data is how many of those who died in hospital had co-morbidities. We know that 53% of those who were admitted had co-morbidities, and 33% of those who were admitted died. But how many of those who died had co-morbidities?

    • Having accessed the actual paper, it does contain this info … quote: “The median age of those who died in hospital from COVID-19 in the UK was 80 years, and only 12% of these patients had no documented comorbidity.” So, 82% of those who died had co-morbidities on admission.

  19. Excuse me, I disagree with the term “C virus” used in the title of this article. The term brings about a negative connotation for people living in that country as well as the diaspora living elsewhere. Average people in the country and people with Asian heritage are innocent victims of the virus as well. Until we figure out what exactly happened, a neutral term of COVID-19 is more appropriate.

    • its the virus that originated in China … it only brings about a negative connotation because you are crazy …

      • If it is true a country can win in a war without firing a single shot, then ‘name calling’ is demonstrating exactly one of the processes of how this transpires, down to the finest detail.

    • I agree John.
      It is extremely poor form to start name calling and so forth when our collective existence depends on good relations, especially at this time when we are all so vulnerable.
      Easily the most reprehensible behavior i have seen allowed to continue on this blog.

      • I call the Chinese virus the Chinese virus just as I call a spade a spade. It is important to remember throughout that this virus only spread worldwide because China dishonoured an international treaty requiring it to report new and fatal infections within 24 hours, and then lied to the effect that it could not be transmitted from person to person, the lie being echoed by the World Death Organization.

        After this is over, it will be necessary to abolish the useless WHO and start again with a new, smaller, more high-powered body that is not wholly controlled by China, and to hold China to account so that the Communists do not commit crimes against humanity to the detriment of the global population ever again.

        • Perhaps you can satisfy yourself of this need to hold “China” accountable until after things settle somewhat.

          If you continue with this spade calling, it will only further enhance the control of those in power i fear, and so you are playing exactly into their hands with incredible efficacy.

          You will find no ‘thanks’ from me.

          • I speak as New Zealander who lived and worked in China for 8 years (helecopters pilot Chinese government ) If you think that the political elight in China is.difrent from elsewhere? China has had hundreds of years more experience in decete than the rest of the world, just ask a Chinese. Thank you Lord Christopher

          • “george Tetley May 4, 2020 at 1:42 am

            Thank you Lord Christopher.

            He is no more a “Lord” than you or I. Refrain from using the term.

          • “george Tetley May 4, 2020 at 1:42 am”

            Yes. 5000 years or more to cook up fake stuff, even food. Ever wonder why you are always hungry after eating Chinese?

          • He is no more a “Lord” than you or I. Refrain from using the term.

            Unless george Tetley and Patrick MJD are members of the peerage, then Monckton of Brenchley is, indeed, more of a lord than they. Just a fact on the ground.

            Within the rules people are free to address others as they wish. For myself, unless I know them personally or there is an established alternative, I stick to the forum identity chosen by the one I am addressing or referring.

          • “PJF May 4, 2020 at 4:50 am”

            Genuflect away at said “Lord”. He is no lord of mine.

          • I don’t think my left knee is up to it, Patrick MJD.

            Of course, pointing out realities doesn’t mean one likes them or agrees with them.

  20. Mob

    ‘Features of 16,749 hospitalized UK patients with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterization Protocol is full of useful facts of which governments can take advantage.”

    I posted this up a while ago ( there is a another study coming out as well)

    Now, let me take a minute to get on my hobby horse ( like Dr. Slop I suppose) and complain about the
    actual lack of data in these types of reports.

    The results are of course important but what is lacking is the ACTUAL data.

    The actual data ( patient x, weight, age, co morbidity, etc, vitamin D level ) would allow
    us to combine data from many sources. patient data from New York, from Korea, From France,
    From Sweden, UK.

    The actual data would allow us to calculate risk ratios for combinations of factors.

    What are the odds ratios by age and weight? by age and comorbidity? by smoking age and weight
    by vitamin d levels, by age and weight.

    This data exists.

    This data was used to create the results.

    But we don’t have access to this data. We only get the tabulations.

    So one study will tabulate ages by decades. 20-30 for example. Another study will cluster it 18-64
    This is data madness.

    If the WHO is good for anything it should be good for creating standards of reporting and collecting
    and PUBLISHING anonymized patent data at the most granular level. Patient X.

    It’s a fricking pandemic. We have a right to this data . we need to be able to combine data from
    Multiple areas. Today we cant because researchers publish RESULTS and Summary stats.
    the don’t publish the underlying data

    I don’t want the young and healthy to remained trapped if the data shows that most of the risk is
    to men X years old with BMIs over Y and low Vitamin D… For example.

    there are MILLIONS of cases and hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and recoveries.

    We need the data. Not the results. you get the data published and 1000 data science experts
    will hop on that data and in short order you will known what clusters of factors are most important

    • One other big point to make of all this.

      What protocol was used to treat these patients as they go into septic shock covid style.

      With out this info….

      Is the WHO still recomending against anti inflammatory and anti coagulation drugs?

      • Mr Mosher is right: the useless WHO should have introduced proper reporting and data-handling protocols to a uniform standard long ago. Unfortunately, the organization is so wholly controlled by China that its mission throughout has been to protect the Communist regime rather than doing its job. It is time to abolish the existing organization entirely, forbid any of its current senior personnel from ever holding public office again, and start again from scratch with a smaller, more high-powered body that admits Taiwan as well as China to its membership.

        • It is even worse with the WHO, they put out unwise treatment info that got a lot of people killed.

          See my other posts on EVMS protocol page 9

  21. It was W Edwards Deming who made quote about God and data. His work was, to a large degree, responsible for the post World War 2 Japanese manufacturing and economic miracle

  22. You can buy plant seed in Michigan now. That order was rescinded a week ago. What’s wrong in Michigan is you can’t get your hair cut. If you’re a contractor, you can’t get permits for construction. You can’t go to a restaurant to eat. As was mentioned in an earlier comment, most of the outbreak in Michigan was in Detroit and its suburbs. Some restrictions in those areas might have made sense. But the rest of the state didn’t need them. And we let the Governor know that by protests in Lansing.

    • Can you hunt for morels? It must be about their season.

      Did you know that mushrooms tend to contain high levels of vitamin D?

  23. While the author of this latest blog was looking at possible up and coming block buster studies, i was studying Dr Watson and Sherlock Holmes to find as to a possible reason hospitals are clinging to corona patients for dear life.

    From: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/private-hospitals-running-at-just-33-of-capacity-says-hse-1.4241286
    “Private hospitals are currently operating at only 33 per cent capacity, opposition parties were told by the HSE at a Covid-19 briefing on Wednesday.”

    “Public hospitals are currently between 80 to 90 per cent capacity, according to three TDs who were present for the meeting.”

  24. “Half the patients admitted to hospitals had no co-morbidities .”I would like to see their admission criteria . Also discharge criteria fromER. Anecdotally ,in the hospital where I practice, of those admitted to ICU , much greater than 80% have co-morbidities.

  25. There may be a largely ignored benefit for countries such as Australia that imposed fairly rapid public lockdown and self-isolation regimes.

    Lockdowns significantly reduce transmission of other communicable diseases (e.g. influenza, meningococcal, hepatitis, cholera, tuberculosis, malaria, syphilis, whooping cough, measles, meningitis, dengue, tetanus, etc).

    Analysis of data from Australia’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/rpt_1_sel.cfm) is interesting.

    Among 67 diseases listed, excluding COVID-19, monthly notification totals show …

    March 2019 – 147
    March 2020 – 110.1

    However, Australia’s self-isolation hadn’t fully kicked in until April …

    April 2019 – 166.6
    April 2020 – 51.8

    The 67 diseases range from hepatitis to salmonella, tuberculosis, chlamydia, gonorrhoea, malaria and Ross River Virus.

    Alternatively, the Immunisation Coalition (https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/news-media/2020-influenza-statistics/) has stats specifically on Australian influenza cases, currently updated to 27 April 2020 …

    March 2019 – 11,158
    March 2020 – 5,863

    April 2019 – 18,667
    April 2020 – 179

    A caveat to the figures above might be that COVID-19 fears have discouraged some people from visiting GP clinics or hospitals, but they are very large reductions and logic dictates they are mostly due to social distancing.

    According to the ABS, Australia had 3,102 deaths from influenza/pneumonia in 2018 and 1,255 deaths solely from influenza in 2017.

    Although all Australian states will probably have ended social isolation measures in about a month, assuming there’s no COVID-19 resurgence and if the monthly disease figures above are accurate, an argument might be put that COVID-19 has been a lifesaver in Australia where the current COVID-19 death toll is 95.

    Australia’s total health spending in 2017-18 was $185.4 billion. Notwithstanding possibly increased expenditure on cabin fever mental health issues and welfare for unemployed medical workers (I’m kidding -sort of), a very long public lockdown period should generate some savings from the suppression of non-COVID-19 communicable diseases – but certainly nowhere near enough to offset the economic cost if the issue is considered only from a financial perspective.

    Countries with arguably slow implementation of lockdown measures have higher short-term COVID-19 fatality rates, but they also might see a reduction in other diseases. It may seem a heartless acceptance of COVID-19 deaths, but other diseases also cause unpublicised suffering and grief so their suppression should be included in any eventual analysis of the cost of the virus pandemic.

    • Mr Gillham’s information is most useful, if not at all unexpected. Given that there ought to be a reduction in overall excess mortality from the factors that he mentions, the fact that there is very large excess mortality in recent weeks indicates still more strongly that the Chinese virus is the reason.

    • “Chris Gillham May 3, 2020 at 6:29 pm

      Lockdowns significantly reduce transmission of other communicable diseases (e.g. influenza, meningococcal, hepatitis, cholera, tuberculosis, malaria, syphilis, whooping cough,…”

      I call BS on that!

      • Why, it is a form of Quarantine, which has always reduced communicable diseases .
        Are you a “history denier”?

          • I can’t quite make head or tail of the BS and Hitler/syphilis responses to my earlier contribution.

            With nightclubs, pubs and parties shut down for more than a month, good luck to the spread of syphilis, gonorrhoea and other sexually transmitted diseases. Couples stuck at home together might be bonking a bit more than usual (I doubt it) but if either suddenly has syphilis then the other can probably expect a divorce.

            On a more serious note, the Australian Immunisation Coalition data (https://www.immunisationcoalition.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/4May-Aust-Flu-Stats-2020.pdf) has been updated to 4 May so it presumably now includes all influenza cases for the month of April.

            April 2019 – 18,667
            April 2020 – 262

            It should be noted that 2019 was a very bad year in Australia for influenza and the previous four years from 2015 to 2018 averaged only 2,141 cases. Indeed, in 2009 there were only 275.

            However, the drop from 18,667 to 262 remains a strong indicator that the lockdown has suppressed the transmission of communicable diseases other than COVID-19.

            Australia’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (http://www9.health.gov.au/cda/source/rpt_1_sel.cfm) has also updated its April figures for 67 communicable diseases, excluding COVID-19, and there’s been a slight increase …

            April 2019 – 166.6
            April 2020 – 52.8

            It’s way too early in the month to draw conclusions but the NDSS also has early figures for May, having been updated today – 5 May.

            May 2019 – 224.7
            To 5 May 2020 – 0.6

            Way too early, as I say, because I don’t know how immediate is their notification system from state and territory health authorities. However, the early indicator is that Australia’s lockdown has put a big dent in the transmission of diseases other than COVID-19.

  26. the average age of deaths in Europe has been around 80 for last 6 weeks … didn’t need a “study” to tell us the old are the at risk, the death stats told us that …

    this is just more experts telling us that the thing on the front of your face is actually a nose … after careful study of course …

    these guys couldn’t get wet falling out of a boat …

    • Finally, hard data ? European countries have been publishing deaths by age for weeks now … daily … we have had hard data for awhile …

      waiting for some “expert” to actually look at it seems to be pure folly on steroids …

      the lockdowns were premised on certain assumptions …
      we now have real data to substitute for those assumptions (most of which were wrong)

      the facts have changed, why have the options/policies of policy makers not changed ?

      Is it becasue they knew their assumptions where wrong all along and just an excuse for their policies ?

      • The somewhat hysterical tone of “the dark lord”, while understandable, is not helpful. He is perhaps unfamiliar with elementary statistics, or he would understand that a large survey of this kind is less prone to be unreliable than the smaller, quicker, dirtier surveys that preceded it.

  27. As a relatively simple non-statistician non-medical mechanical engineer, I have seen no mention of the obvious question – what details SHOULD be recorded for each affected (?) person? It seems to me that, with the best of intentions, each medical authority is making a stab at recording what they think is appropriate, then all sorts of incomparable comparisons are being made. Should not the WHO have tackled this early on, and issued a list of the data to be collected in ALL cases? Such a simple suggestion! Here in island-nation New Zealand, we are still under lockdown after 6 economy-destroying weeks, having experienced 20 deaths (more than half from one badly infected rest home) in our population of almost 5million. Perhaps not as good as Taiwan, but not bad for a population which values its independence! I feel sorry for our non-technical politicians who have to make decisions based on technical advice from those who do not have suitable comparable data!
    It also concerns me that generalisations are being made about “old people, many with underlying health problems” – I am especially interested in old healthy people like me (82).

    • What no one is talking about is correct method to care for the backend of covid when you go into septic shock covid style.

      If your immune system is triggered it must be dealt with quickly and in the right manner.

      It puts a lot of pressure on your body, hard to say what blows out first.

      I post this again, I wish someone should post a full article on this issue that is never covered.

      https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf
      Short url evms.edu/covidcare

    • “As a relatively simple non-statistician non-medical mechanical engineer, I have seen no mention of the obvious question – what details SHOULD be recorded for each affected (?) person? It seems to me that, with the best of intentions, each medical authority is making a stab at recording what they think is appropriate, then all sorts of incomparable comparisons are being made. Should not the WHO have tackled this early on, and issued a list of the data to be collected in ALL cases?”

      yes.

      The lack of standard data collection, data reporting is shocking

      • “Steven Mosher May 3, 2020 at 10:35 pm

        The lack of standard data collection, data reporting is shocking…”

        Bit like climate “science”.

  28. As has been reported many times, this is not like flu in who gets seriously ill or in mortality: young children seem to have low risk and pregnant women do not have a increased risk of serious illness, and it is deadlier than flu.

    Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations (Rate per 100,000 population): 40.4
    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

    Laboratory-Confirmed Flu Hospitalization (Rate per 100,000, for Nov-May 2019-20 Flu season): 69
    https://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/FluHospRates.html

    The increase in Covid cases is slowing in U.S. and likely will level by summer.
    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/

    Further, we vaccinate millions of people for flu. Without this campaign the number of flu deaths would rival those of Covid-19.

    • Yesterday CofB made a deceptive comparison to last year’s flu season to give “context” to COVID numbers where he calculated 10.5% CFR. I pointed out 2017/18 flu season had 10.4% – 10.8% mortality according to NIH. As always he refuses to address any contrary evidence and continues to propagate his ill-informed , preconceived views on everything COVID.

      Perhaps the most startling results were that a third of all hospitalized patients died, 17% are still in hospital and only half have been discharged. Almost half of all intensive-care or high-dependency patients and more than half of all ventilated patients died.

      At last some useful new information from CofB. Good digging. Well done !

      Now we can see why UK govt has been almost the only country to NOT provide data on the number of cured patients.

      all countries tracked bar Sweden and Ireland with active-case rates declining

      HUH? He can’t even read his own graphs ( probably because they’re fuzzy, confused and illegible ). According to his “active” graph Ireland was at 10% on April 15th and dropped dramatically to below 0% now . No decline? Sweden has shown a steady monotonic decline from 8% down to 1% now, despite having opted for minimal restrictions and not trashing their economy.

      Again, he has a predisposition against the choice that Sweden made and is able to state the exact opposite of what his own “analysis” shows in order to confirm his biased opinion.

      There are two countries which do show a recent rise on his “active-cases” spaghetti graph: Taiwan and S. Korea. The two countries he has been applauding for their draconian authoritarian responses to COVID. They are now paying the price for aggressively suppressing the initial spread of infection.

      You really have to wonder why we have to put up with the kind of self contradictory nonsense day after day.

      And, yes, I’ll stop “whining” when you stop BS-ing everyone.

  29. For those who think reporting by race is, er, racist, then that is bad medicine. For some medical conditions, there are higher rates of issues for certain races. If one race is more susceptible, then that should also be tracked.

    Furthermore, it would appear that nearly all pharmaceutical testing avoids testing new drugs on women because they don’t want to factor in the menstrual cycle. Doesn’t matter that the effectiveness of the drug may be affected by the menstrual cycle! Preliminary work has also shown viagara is highly effective for women with heart conditions. But further testing was not done due to a lack of funding by pharmaceutical companies too scared that such research might unearth something culminating in the withdrawl of viagara from the market. That is bad medicine.

  30. A reasonable prediction on the outcome after some months of the pandemi for different countries:
    Those countries that gave the virus some weeks to develop before hard measures were set in may get about 1000 deaths pr million from COVID-19. Like USA, UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Sweden.
    Countries with a fast lockdown may get under 100 deaths pr million. Like Finland, Norway, Poland and most countries in eastern Europe, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Australia among others.
    Some countries may contain the virus and get it under control, and open up soon (with restrictions for foreign travelers). Like Iceland and perhaps New Zealand.
    So perhaps without firm measures there has been an uncontrolled outbreak of infection with about 10 times more deaths. 1 in 1000 of the whole population dies.

    • +100
      But don’t forget other actions, ie like the public wearing of PPE, like Czechia.

        • No. FFP2 or FFP3 also help a big deal. Even other masks offer some minor protection.

          1 viral particle will not make you sick. You need a sufficient load that the virus can overcome your innate immune response.

          That’s true for all viruses and the reason why you can’t get an infection from saliva from a HIV positive though it contains virus. The load is not sufficient.

          So if you get in contact with SARS-CoV-2 but reduce the amount by 95% your immune system might be able to fight off this initial infection at once.

          It is a function of viral load/time.

          • Ron,
            you write “1 viral particle will not make you sick.” and “It is a function of viral load/time.”

            I’ve often wondered about that. How big is the viral load needed? Are there differences depending on age, health, whatever? Is there a viral load that helps you get immune but doesn’t make you really really sick?

            Inquiring minds want to know 😉

          • lb

            “How big is the viral load needed? Are there differences depending on age, health, whatever?”
            I don’t know but I would guess all these things matter for the viral load needed and of course the genes as always. The gene lottery is just unfair but contributes always to varying degrees.

            “Is there a viral load that helps you get immune but doesn’t make you really really sick?”
            Interesting question.

            I am no immunologist but I would guess there might be a T cell mediated short-lived immune response that could result in milder outcomes.
            For an adaptive immune response (antibody generation) a full course infection is probably needed.

  31. Interesting analysis. The 8% obesity comorbidity and 5% smoking comorbidity appear illogical. Prevalence of obesity and smoking in the general population is much higher than that and the prevalence of obesity among IC patients in the Netherlands is some 80%. Maybe the threshold for obesity as a morbidity is too high or more likely, the comorbidity data are just uselessly inaccurate and incomplete. It is not surprising that old people ventilated show a high mortality, it is a very high impact therapy and only applied to very ill patients. The data are until the 18th of April, maybe time for an update.

    • That is very well known: 50-year olds synthesize half as much vitamin D as the 20-year olds.

    • Yet another bullshit article that does not compare Apples with Apples.
      Compared to other Nordic countries Sweden is doing terribly as you well know.
      That author has obviously not looked at what the countries that he quoted as having a “lighter touch” actually did and when they did it.
      He also does not mention Australia & New Zealand who instigated proper Quarantine and have done 10 time better than Sweden.
      He is as clueless as you.

  32. “Who is at risk from the Chinese Virus?”

    Old, infirm, people with co-morbidity issues, obese, heavy smokers, hypertension, immunodeficient…blah blah blah…

    97% of others remain unaffected! So lets just shutdown the whole global economy to save a less than 100 lives in Australia! There was a time when travellers on international aircraft had anti-viral/bac sprays deployed in cabins upon arrival.

    • You sir are an idiot, they only had 100 because of the actions they took.
      You totally fail to understand the age old principle of Quarantine and Isolation.

      • “A C Osborn May 4, 2020 at 4:53 am”

        That is complete bollox! Actions? What actions?

        • You complain about the actions the world is taking and then say “what action” as if Australia hasn’t taken any actions?
          Sorry John, I stand by first assessment.

          • A C, you seem a tad confused. your reply to Pat’s comments but address them as “sorry John”. Please don’t ascribe one persons comments to another, thanks.

          • John, I was saying that I still think he is an idiot, ie I stand by my first assessment despite what you said.
            He is contrary for the sake of it.

      • Name calling doesn’t make your point any more or less valid than anyone else’s.

        You totally fail to understand the age old principle of Quarantine and Isolation

        the age old principle of Quarantine is to isolate *the sick* and those who may have been exposed to the sick. It’s usually not applied to the healthy who are not known to have been exposed to the sick.

        • John, that is the normal, unfortunately when you have asymptomatic spreader you have no idea who they are.

          • Still doesn’t change the fact that “the age old principle of Quarantine” is to isolate *the sick*” rather than the healthy.

  33. Who’s at risk? Only all the people whose businesses have been destroyed, all the people who will suffer from the impending poverty, all the people whose health has been compromised by unhealthful lockdowns, all the people who will suffer under this new tyranny, etc., etc.
    This week in my neighborhood a man whose business was destroyed committed suicide.
    http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13347791
    More will come.
    Thanks a lot for supporting this horrendous attack on human liberty Monckton.

  34. “FRANCE sparked further doubt on the spread of the coronavirus after doctors at a hospital in the suburbs of Paris said one of their patients appeared to have had the virus as early as December after tests were repeated”

    The patient is well.

  35. Yes, and aren’t you, Monckton, just like the climate modelers who only see CO2 as a driver, leaving out water vapor, clouds, etc. ? Can’t you see the elephant in the room: the cost to human liberty–Human liberty , the loss of which will result in the downfall of Western civilization?

    • What loss of Liberty?
      Do you actually think that the lockdowns will never end?

      • Loss of ones liberty isn’t any less of a loss just because it’s temporary. If the police grabbed you off the street and locked you up in a prison cell for 6 months then let you go free would you say you didn’t have any loss of liberty because it was only temporary? seriously?

  36. A C Osborn, the lockdowns set a precedent that will never be relinquished by power hungry states. This is unprecedented. Never before have whole healthy populations been locked down– previously, only the infected have been quarantined.
    Think it won’t happen again? I suggest you study a little bit if history.
    Further, we have the MSM supporting the States’ narratives, quasi-governmental big-tech groups outright censoring truth, and what they do best–distorting or ignoring important information. So many examples! Here’s one: Scissors mentioned in a previous thread that even Elizabeth Warren’s brother died of C19. Check it out. How many MSN sights “forgot” to include pertinent information that he was 86 years old and for some years had been undergoing cancer therapy and had other co-morbidities. Of course, he must have died of thar dread plague, COVID19, because that justifies the suppression of liberty, and fuels the mind-numbing hysteria.

    • Don’t wonder, because Se is essential, but not everywhere, in the soil for what grain ever. Eggs, meat, fish are best for enough Se daily uptake. Europe is known to have low Se level.

  37. If you google “iodine and flu” you find iodine is an excellent preventative for flu (and very possibly for Covid.) It should be tested as soon as possible. Japan and South Korea have the highest iodine intakes (from seaweed) and also the lowest incidence of Covid-19. Compare Michigan with stay at home rules and 3800 deaths and Sweden with only social distancing rule and 2600 deaths. They both have 10 million population. This seems to show social distancing is effective and lockdowns are ineffective.

  38. Interesting that the practice to show passports at borders was introduced during the Spanish flu and is already documented for Venice (and other Italian cities) during the black death plague in 14th century.

    Quarantine originates from the Italian expression „quaranta giorni“ = 40 days.

    Progress of humanity is slow.

  39. The study from Gangelt, Germany is online as a scientific manuscript.

    Extrapolation of IFR is somewhat meaningless cause there are only 7 total deaths in the study. Way to low numbers. Calculation of total number of infected people up to 2% ~1,800,000 in Germany is probably too high.

    But interesting data about symptoms and number of asymptomatic cases.

    22 % have no symptoms, 9 % low or mild symptoms which would probably not see a doctor. That is also in the ball park of other studies. To calculate the number of undetected cases one could do

    1 – (1 / (1-0,22-0,09)) = 45 % of undetected cases

    If everybody with more severe symptoms really gets a test which is true since March for Germany. Actually, ~50% of testing capacity is not used at the moment.

    So the calculation from above results in ~240,000 infected people for Germany and therefore an IFR of 2.9%.

  40. “IT’S LIKE SOMETHING ELSE IS GOING ON HERE.”
    “THIS IS NOT ABOUT SCIENCE AND IT’S NOT EVEN ABOUT COVID.”
    – Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr Artin Massihi, Bakersfield, California
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyTmbEhiqb0 ~1.5 minutes

    Here is the two Bakersfield doctors’ ~1.1 hour video that was repeatedly banned by YouTube, preserved on Facebook:
    https://savedmag.com/dr-erickson-covid-19.mp4?id=0

    YOUTUBE ZUCKS!!!

    YouTube has repeated censored the expert opinion video of these two doctors:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/26/chinese-virus-on-the-shelf/#comment-2980772

    After more than 5 million views, the scoundrels at YouTube CENSORED the above video by California doctors Erickson and Massihi, which was previously located here:
    https://youtu.be/xfLVxx_lBLU The screen now reads: “This video has been removed for violating YouTube’s Community Guidelines.”
    That is, the doctors were telling the truth – they were saying that Covid-19 was no more severe than other major seasonal flu’s and less severe than some. What’s up with that?

    This appears be the same banned Dr Erickson and Dr Massihi video, re-posted. Copy it while you have the chance, before it is censored again. [NOW ALSO CENSORED BY YOUTUBE – 4May2020.]
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25m0fm2LSIg

    The motives for YouTube to censor this excellent video are treasonous. How do we put the traitors at YouTube out of business?

  41. The epitaph of WB Yeats

    Cast a cold eye
    on life, on death
    Horseman pass me by.

    Which brings me to the point when all is said and done the only way we will know the severity of the Wu-Flu is by the average age of death, or life expectancy. It will lower by probably about 2 weeks. In other words you will be expected as a man to live for 77.94 years post Wu Flu as apposed too 78 years now.

  42. WOODSTOCK OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC
    Elvis Was King, Ike Was President, and 116,000 Americans Died in a Pandemic
    Article published in The American Institute for Economic Research, May 1, 2020
    https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/
    [excerpts]

    In my lifetime, there was another deadly flu epidemic in the United States. The flu spread from Hong Kong to the United States, arriving December 1968 and peaking a year later. It ultimately killed 100,000 people in the U.S., mostly over the age of 65, and one million worldwide.

    Lifespan in the US in those days was 70 whereas it is 78 today. Population was 200 million as compared with 328 million today. It was also a healthier population with low obesity. If it would be possible to extrapolate the death data based on population and demographics, we might be looking at a quarter million deaths today from this virus. So in terms of lethality, it was as deadly and scary as COVID-19 if not more so, though we shall have to wait to see.

    “In 1968,” says Nathaniel L. Moir in National Interest, “the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the U.S. than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.”

    Nothing closed. Schools stayed open. All businesses did too. You could go to the movies. You could go to bars and restaurants. John Fund has a friend who reports having attended a Grateful Dead concert. In fact, people have no memory or awareness that the famous Woodstock concert of August 1969 – planned in January during the worse period of death – actually occurred during a deadly American flu pandemic that only peaked globally six months later. There was no thought given to the virus which, like ours today, was dangerous mainly for a non-concert-going demographic.

    Stock markets didn’t crash. Congress passed no legislation. The Federal Reserve did nothing. Not a single governor acted to enforce social distancing, curve flattening (even though hundreds of thousands of people were hospitalized), or banning of crowds. No mothers were arrested for taking their kids to other homes. No surfers were arrested. No daycares were shut even though there were more infant deaths with this virus than the one we are experiencing now. There were no suicides, no unemployment, no drug overdoses.

    Media covered the pandemic but it never became a big issue.

    • I think that we might be victims of our own success. People live longer lives due to the support of our Medical Industry.

      When you get old, and this pandemic is primarily a killer of the old, you have a shortage of everything Vitamin D g e f o and c even k. You lack everything that you had in your youth, muscle, immune system, lung function, man the list goes on and on.

      However what you lack most of all is time. Make the most of it.

  43. Michael Levitt was interviewed on UnHerd about the Covid epidemic. ML is professor of Structural Biology at the Stanford medical school. He also won the 2013 Chemistry Nobel.

    He apparently was in China in January, and saw the first reports of the Covid outbreak. He’s been following it ever since, and has a lot to say about its spread, about policy, and about herd immunity.

    Story at the Blaze here, youtube interview here.

    From the story, “a similar mathematical pattern is observable regardless of government interventions. After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. … even in countries that have been relatively lax in their responses.</eM

  44. Everyone dies exactly once, so any uptick in deaths now will inevitably mean an equal drop at some point later on. Rather than the current media obsession with number of deaths, wouldn’t it be more informative to look at the changes in the average age at death (e.g. average age at death in April 2020 compared to April 2019)? It might turn out that on average we’re all just dying a day or two earlier than we would otherwise…

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