How the Chinese virus punishes the stupid, the innumerate, the panicky and the extreme

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

First, the stupid and the innumerate. Here is a graphic being circulated by the failed far-Left cartoonist John Cook, he of the bogus “97.1% consensus” about global warming, whose own datafile showed he had marked only 0.5% of 11,944 peer-reviewed climate papers published in the 21 years 1991-2011 as saying that recent warming was mostly manmade.

Cook’s Twit account says: “I’ve been applying the critical thinking approach developed for climate misinformation to coronavirus misinformation.” Yeah, right.

Here is Cook’s latest piece of pseudo-statistical prestidigitation, posted recently on his Twit account (h/t the indefatigable Willie Soon, who reads everything and forgets nothing):

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For once Cook is telling the truth, though the effect of his graphic, as captioned, is not to correct misinformation but grossly to mislead. The United States is indeed different from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy or Spain. Its population is a lot larger.

So let us assist Mr Two-Orders-Of-Magnitude-Whoopsie by showing the same graphic corrected for population size. In the United States, deaths per million are the lowest among the five countries selected by Mr Nonsensus.

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Chinese-virus confirmed cases and deaths per million population to April 26, 2020

As for the panicky, they fall into two categories: the elderly and infirm, who are afraid that the pandemic will spread uncontrollably and kill millions, and the young and wage-earning, who are afraid of the economic damage that lockdowns will cause. However, as the Book of Proverbs says, a false balance is abomination to the Lord, but a just weight is His delight. To put it another way, do the math, and do it dispassionately.

Doing the math during a pandemic isn’t easy, because the data, particularly in the early stages, are grossly inadequate. One must make the best of what little there is, while allowing for its insufficiency. At the outset, the daily compound rate of growth in confirmed cases is the key indicator. Globally outside China, in the three weeks before Mr Trump declared a national emergency, the case-growth rate was almost 20% a day. The death-growth rate was even higher.

That is why Dr Jerome Kim, director-general of the International Virological Institute, said in an excellent recent interview (h/t Mosher) that the Chinese virus is ten times more infectious than flu and ten times deadlier, and that it is the combination of high infectivity and high mortality that makes it so dangerous.

As the pandemic develops, the key indicator is the daily compound rate of growth or decline in active cases: those reported cases that have neither recovered nor died. Unfortunately, most countries’ capacity to count recovered cases is inadequate, and their methods of counting deaths vary widely.

Therefore, in the active-case graphs published here from now on, it has been assumed that everyone first reported as infected 21 days ago has either recovered or died by now. This 21-day figure is based on Verity et al. (Lancet, 2020), who find that the mean time from first symptoms to death is 17.8 days, and on an analysis of the first cohort of intensive-care cases by the Office for National Statistics.

For those who prefer a shorter period, I have included in the high-definition graphs linked at the end of this post an active-case graph assuming only 14 days from confirmation to closure of a case.

The Health Minister in the UK has admitted that at the outset HM Government had imagined the virus would be no worse than flu. If Ministers and their scientific advisors had kept a weather eye on the case-growth rate, they would have been disabused of that catastrophic notion very early on.

Finally, the virus punishes extremists on both sides of the political divide. It punishes the far Left because anyone with an open mind can see that it is the totalitarianism they espouse that caused this virus to spread worldwide. In the democracies they so hate it would have been notified to the global community within 24 hours, as the International Health Regulations require, and stopped in its tracks.

It punishes the far Right because they tend to put the economy before all things, and to ignore the daily growth rate, and thus not to take a pandemic of this kind seriously until it is far, far too late. Given that growth rate, the models that sought to maintain that the Chinese virus is no worse than the flu were manifestly wrong from the outset. No dispassionate observer should have placed – and still less should now place – any reliance upon them whatsoever.

The United States is a particularly interesting study, because the Left (as is their wont) have been clamouring for lockdowns while the Right (as is their wont) have been clamouring for deregulation. Lockdown policies vary from State to State, with the blue States locking down more actively than the Red States.

The one piece of good news that the advocates of continuing lockdowns have undervalued is the fact that those who are fit and under 60 are not at all likely to die of the virus. Now that it is known that more than nine-tenths of all deaths from the virus are in those over 60, particularly with comorbidities, it is legitimate to argue that for the vast majority of the population the virus will indeed be no worse than the flu.

Particularly since the threat of hospitals becoming overwhelmed has been averted, it is now possible to end lockdowns at once for the under-60s. Let them all go back to work, university or school, starting with those where the risk of infection is smallest, provided that they keep their distance where possible and wear face-masks so that their coughs and sneezes cannot spread the virus: the South Koreans are right about masks, as about much else.

And, now that the population are thoroughly educated in the dangers posed by the virus, let the old and the sick take whatever precautions they deem appropriate to avoid catching the virus. Since the initial data suggest that “herd immunity” may not be possible with this virus, the period of immunity in some cases having proven to be very short, there is no advantage in keeping anyone under indefinite house arrest. Let people decide for themselves how much risk they are willing to take.

In care homes, all staff and visitors should be carefully screened. There should be separate hospitals for Chinese-virus cases, to avoid nosocomial infections and thus to allow the ordinary hospitals to resume treatment of non-virus ailments at once: otherwise, mortality from failure to provide ordinary treatments could become significant.

Very large gatherings, particularly indoors, are best avoided for the time being. One beneficial effect of the Chinese virus is the cancelation of the UN climate gabfest in Glasgow this December.

With these and suchlike precautions, which are not unduly expensive, and with careful monitoring to detect and prevent a second wave such as that which struck the Japanese island of Hokkaido, leading to a second and fiercer lockdown, it should be possible to keep future deaths from the Chinese virus in the developed countries well below those from the annual flu. And keep watching the no-lockdown experiment in Sweden: its greatest test comes in May.

Today’s graphs show all countries’ graphs at a mean compound seven-day-averaged daily growth rate under 2%. It would be wisest to be particularly cautious with phasing out lockdowns in countries where the growth rate remains above zero.

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Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in estimated active cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 1 to April 26, 2020.

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Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 8 to April 26, 2020.

Ø High-definition Figures 1 and 2 are here.

And finally …

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Why Cook failed as a cartoonist

261 thoughts on “How the Chinese virus punishes the stupid, the innumerate, the panicky and the extreme

  1. I did not read this, but it must be talking about how much it has hurt you. I am imagining suffering at the level of greek tragedies…
    I mean, it punishes the panicky and the extreme. I do not think you are stupid, so at least you have that. And all your work on global warming issues means you are not innumerate.
    I hope things get better for you as you recover from your panic and extremism.

    • Only a moron would comment on something they havemt read.

      I hope things get better for your eyes and brain.

      • Only a moron would be stupid enough to not understand that the statement I did not read is an attack on what I know the quality of the author has on this subject.

        • So just a mindless knee-jerk reaction. Thanks for letting us know the principle that undergirds your line of discourse.

          • No different than a mindful knee jerk reaction … i.e. Monckton reaction to the virus… He claims people thought wrongly that it is no worse than the flu .. Then says for most people its no worse than the flu … He also quotes what he claims is an excellent interview that claims its 10 times more infectious and 10 times more deadly … Panic underscores his entire take ..

        • Your ignorance belies……your ignorance.

          Here you didnt read the words in your rush to be the first “respondent” to this article.

          Vapid, ignorant and looking for attention….what a clown.

        • Astonerii If you had read this you would have probably discovered you agree with most of it. Aside from that, though, your comment is grammatically nonsensical. You say the statement you did not read is an attack on the quality of the author. Huh? The quality of the author has on this subject. Huh?

        • Just what we expect from ‘a stoner ii’.

          Complete lack of brain activity.
          All emotional hate and blame.

        • “As for the panicky, they fall into two categories: the elderly and infirm, who are afraid that the pandemic will spread uncontrollably and kill millions, and the young and wage-earning, who are afraid of the economic damage that lockdowns will cause”

          AS the elderly tend to be well read and numerate it is not surprising that I know of none in this category who believed that it would kill millions or for example 500,00 or 250,000 in the UK. They also know of the terrible economic consequences and believe that lock down in its current form must end immediately.

          I know of many of the young who believed the nonsensical ‘science’ however.

          tonyb

          • Very true tonyb.
            I don’t much like the ‘Lord’s’ daily input. It worries me that if he is so ‘off’ with cv-19 , it doesn’t say much for his stuff on AGW.
            The US versus Europe comparison as shown on worldometer is intesesting. The graph of number of cases over time is almost identical, yet the deaths ‘with’ cv-19 are much less in the US over the same period. This is relected in the bar charts in his lordships latest offering. As the US has several ‘swedens’, ie states with no lockdowns, it is indicative of the success or otherwise of them.
            I listened several weeks ago to a newly retired expert on coronavirus, who because he was no longer employed by the state felt able to say what he thought. In his view the virus would go the ay of all coronavirus, it would have a bellshape infection curve , duration of 4/5 weeks. All lockdowns would do is reduce amplitudes a bit and elongate duration as a consequence, the volume under the curve would remain more or less the same. This is proving to be correct and is best shown by the Euro Momo excess death curves.
            Also ‘age’ is only significant because more older people have damaged immune systems, infected lungs etc. Any respiratory desease is more fatal to this group. Also scorn is poured on any mention of flu. But the excess deaths from cv-19 and the amplitude, duration of the curve is no greater than reasonably bad flu years, 2017 being the latrst across Europe. No-one is saying this virus doesn’t have different characteristics to flu, but the morbidity rates look similar. By the way there was little flu around in mid winter in a lot of Europe, and so the most at risk group had 4 months longer life this year.
            In general the older age groups of many Far Eastern countries are healthier, less obese than their western counterparts. And there is far less use of Ace-inhibitors. This probably more than any ‘trace and track’ program has had more influence on the death rates.

          • jim

            ‘By the way there was little flu around in mid winter in a lot of Europe, and so the most at risk group had 4 months longer life this year.’

            Yes and there was a light flu year in 2018 which then runs into the 2019 season which had also been light. So unfortunately that means that any severe epidemic would have more effect on the vulnerable

            We seem to have already forgotten the bad flu year of 2014 when over 40000 died in the UK and didn’t close down the economy. Perhaps we should take ordinary flu much more seriously as cumulatively it kills many more.

            tonyb

          • Ah, the “David Blane” Flu? Now you see it & Now you don’t!
            Wherefore art thou, oh influenza?
            Do this years influenza figures disappear at the same rate, or similar, as the appearance of “having tested positive for coronavirus”? … Wery suspicious, jah?

    • astonerii
      April 27, 2020 at 6:05 pm

      And there is a dead line for each and every one of us to learn, that simple thing,
      of not letting death and fear dictate over life and liberty.

      Hopefully dear lord M. gets to learn that within time.

      The balance, itself in plain “is dispassionate” and knows not justice, simply totally fair,
      like grass meet the locust,
      or heart meet the feather…
      Where and over passion is definitely mistaken for dispassion,
      where murder and killing is mistaken for salvation and help;
      Where the survival of the losers, “the clean”, aka the sterile, is mistaken and propagated as the survival of the fittest.
      Where sterile means over passion not dispassion… where the heart will weight more than a mountain…
      Where definitely over passion means total lack and void of compassion.

      Crushing under the weight of torment to fear and death in account of one’s self, is a confirmation of total failure of one’s self… terminal.

      And as far as I can tell, in matter of religion, there is a straight clear warning to all;
      If sterile and void of compassion, one better never ever speak in behalf or in favor of faith or God.
      One better not even touching that banner.

      cheers

      • I fear that His Lordship is looking at the wrong indicator. I would expect that a more densely populated area to have a greater growth rate (all else being equal). And, as it turns out, the growth rate actually depends on the rate of testing. The more you test, the more “confirmed” cases you find. Confirmed cases would seem to me to be a worthless piece of information by itself.

        However, for the last several days of testing, the percentage of confirmed cases out of those tested has hovered around 15%. If they test 100 people, they find 15 cases. Test 1000 people and you find 150 cases.

        But, this is valuable information! If you extrapolate to the whole population of the US, you likely wouldn’t be too far off to expect 15% of a test of all 340 million Americans to show positive for antibodies. That’s 51 million of what would be Confirmed Cases so far in the US.

        If there currently have been around 70,000 deaths, you could say that, compared to the 51 million cases, there is roughly a 0.137% chance of dying. More among oldsters (like me) especially with co-morbidities (like me) and much less among healthy younger people.

        That’s starting to line up not too far from a bad flu season. Tell me again what all the panic was about. Did it really need a lockdown of the Economy.

        And, if herd immunity does develop, it will take the same number of deaths, regardless of whether you flatten the curve or not. Could there have been a worse choice that lockdowns which flattened the curve but also flattened the Economy with 30 million Americans so far out of work?

  2. CM of B,

    I am not color blind and as a matter of fact once did a very good job as a color matcher for an ink company as a part time job while in undergraduate school. But I must say that your multicolor line graphs with color keys are totally incomprehensible for me. Matching graph lines to the key is not possible.

    Regards,

    JimG1

    • JimG1 should click the link to the high-definition graphs at the end of the head posting. On those graphs it is easy to distinguish the individual countries.

      • Christopher,

        Sorry, but I disagree. I’ve clicked through to the high-def versions and still struggle, particularly with differentiating between the UK and France. Could you please change some of the lines to dashed, or dotted, or dot-dash etc?

        Many thanks

        • How could you not see the difference between UK and France ? The UK one is the ridiculous laughable with impaired-teeth one, the French one is the best-of-the-world one.

          signed: a French reader.

      • Line colour choice is very poor and is probably due to the automatic colours attributed by powerpoint which the author has not bothered to specify himself to make his work more legible.

        It is also partly due to aliasing effects ,or ringing, which occurs when using the lossy jpeg format for block graphics. I have pointed out that the simple solution here is to use non lossy formats like gif or png but the author steadfastly refuses to do that despite daily complaints his graphs are illegible and my repeatedly pointing out the trivial solution to that problem.

        And, now that the population are thoroughly educated in the dangers posed by the virus, let the old and the sick take whatever precautions they deem appropriate to avoid catching the virus. … there is no advantage in keeping anyone under indefinite house arrest. Let people decide for themselves how much risk they are willing to take.

        At last CofB has dropped his authoritarian attitude in favour of a more reasonable stance. A little over due but welcome nonetheless.

        The one piece of good news that the advocates of continuing lockdowns have undervalued is the fact that those who are fit and under 60 are not at all likely to die of the virus. Now that it is known that more than nine-tenths of all deaths from the virus are in those over 60, particularly with comorbidities, it is legitimate to argue that for the vast majority of the population the virus will indeed be no worse than the flu.

        That has been evident for a long time, glad you’ve caught up.

        • Worked for me. PPT Slides are legible and colours usable against the Key. Perhaps someone needs a new monitor/Device?

    • A remark I would have liked to make when I saw the first graph.
      It would be interesting to request a color expert of your (ex) ink company to kindly show us the lines that represent, for example, France and the UK. Just for fun, I don’t think it will be eye-opening.
      I think the Viscount’s exposures on climate matters are better than these observations.
      .-

  3. This virus is probably 20 times less deadly for those with no underlying illness such as heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, asthma, etc. than for those with such illness. Problem is, in the US 55% of the adult population suffers from one or more of these conditions. So if you say:”if you are healthy, go back to work”, you end up with about half the work force. No substitute for safe working conditions, PPE for all, massive testing and contact tracing, all of which costs money our present government does not want to spend and neither do the big corporations. But that is the only way to reduce deaths until a vaccine is ready.

      • In response to Icisil, there is evidence that with coronaviridae in general the mean period of immunity after clearing the infection is 3-6 months, which is far too short for comfort. Worse, a study of 19 cases of reinfection in South Korea, and a growing number of similar studies, suggests that for some, at any rate, the period of immunity is much shorter than 3 months. It would not be responsible to adopt a herd-immunity strategy until more is known about the mean immunity period.

        • There is also growing evidence (from burgeoning antibody surveys) that a large portion of the population simply shrug off the coronavirus, with either no or very mild symptoms. I predict these individuals’ antibodies will subsequently protect them from reinfection. It’s not unlikely that people who struggle to ward off an initial infection will be more at risk for reinfection. No, I am not an immunologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

        • Worse, a study of 19 cases of reinfection in South Korea, and a growing number of similar studies, suggests that for some

          If they could not find more than 19 cases to study, the level of cases of reinfection is not something which will affect any conclusions about herd immunity being feasible or not.

          • I am sure that 19 cases is a typo. When I read the first SK report it was 91, which is still a tiny percentage of recovered cases.

          • SM: no need for me to check. I said the first report I read stated 91 reinfected cases. That’s what it was then. Period.

        • There are people to have immunity they found out some days before. It seems, that people that had a Corona cold have active T-Cell, about 34% of tested people without contact to COV-19 before.
          https://rp-online.de/panorama/coronavirus/virologe-christian-drosten-hintergrundimmunitaet-gegen-coronavirus-moeglich_aid-50235723


          Mild or asymptomatic corona progressions could be related to previous infections with cold corona viruses, according to the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten. However, the expert warns against high hopes.
          Referring to a study by a Charité colleague, the scientist confirmed on Friday in the NDR podcast that a certain background immunity seems to exist in the population. Drostens team had participated in the study on so-called T-helper cells, which are central to the immune response.

          The researchers had seen that 34 percent of the patients had reactive T-cells that could recognize certain parts of the new coronavirus. So-called reactivity can be expected once the disease is over – but these patients have had no contact with Sars-CoV-2, said Drosten. The fact that reactive T-cells were nevertheless present could be due to infections with human cold coronaviruses.

          Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)”

          • Immunity and being asymptomatic/a mild case are two pair of shoes.

            Immune people would not spread the virus where the others do, so that doesn’t give you any benefit in regard to achieve herd immunity.

            The authors also stress that it does not change the mortality rate at all because such an effect would be already present but hidden in the actual numbers.

            Nice work to understand what we see but doesn’t change what we see.

          • Immune people would not spread the virus where the others do,

            “YUP”, …. and that’s what Typhoid Mary told them …. and found hrself another restaurant to work at.

          • Typhus is 1st. not what we are talking about and 2nd. not a non-integrative virus that cannot replicate itself without invading host cells.

            But thanks for the reminder that every simplification will be pointed out sooner or later.

          • Now Ron, my above was just a fun “gotcha” post.

            Iffen I had really wanted to “badmouth” your response of ….. “Immune people would not spread the virus where the others do”, …… I would have said …… “Ron, why the ell do you suppose all those health care workers and laboratory employees don protective clothing before entering a patients room … and then removing and destroying said protective clothing upon exiting a patients room?”

            Even an Immune people can accidently (or on purpose) transport that Covid19 virus on their belongings and cause infection of an unsuspecting person.

            “Coronavirus survives on surfaces up to 72 hours”

        • tonight in aus theres this..later follow up said some had corona antibodies but not all?
          https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/coronavirus/coronavirus-two-million-aussies-download-app-as-boris-johnson-issues-grim-warning/news-story/1c94700a2ee976cf1fcd3bf97aaaa420

          UK ‘WORRIED’ ABOUT VIRUS-LINKED ILLNESS IN KIDS
          A new mystery illness hitting children in the UK with COVID-19 like symptoms has sparked British health authorities to order an urgent review.

          The rise of the potential threat against children has caused concern, with coronavirus previously thought to give children only mild symptoms.

          Doctors in London have been alerted to watch out for the rare illness, amid fears of a new strain of the disease.

          “There is a growing concern that a Sars CoV-2 (COVID-19) related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK, or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases,” the alert to doctors said.

          “Please refer children presenting with these symptoms as a matter of urgency.”

          Children in Spain were able to play outside for the first time in six weeks on Sunday. Picture: AFP
          The illness also causes stomach pain, gastro and heart inflammation, the alert said.

          Doctors were warned it may have similar symptoms to Kawasaki disease, which affects children under five and commonly includes a high temperature for five days.

          There have been reports of cases in London and other parts of the UK.

          A separate alert from the Paediatric Intensive Care Network confirmed the issue.

          Professor Stephen Powis, the national medical director of England’s public health service, said he had ordered an investigation into the coronavirus-related syndrome.

          “We have become aware in the last few days of reports of severe illness in children which might be a Kawasaki-like disease,” he said.

          “We have asked our experts, I have asked the National Clinical Director for Children and Young People to look into this as a matter of urgency.”

          and nations are letting the kids out to play together and back to school
          umm err?
          number s of affected kids would be damned useful right now

        • This has to be the most laughable claim yet by the Chicken Littles. This virus is so special, you get it, don’t show any symptoms and your immune system quickly defeats it, but you better stay locked in a cave because it’s a super special virus that will reinfect you and get you the second time. Give us a ‘F’ing break with this nonsense already.

        • In the hype about reinfection, nowhere do I see any mention of the false positive rate of the tests used. out of millions of cases of COVID, there are for sure some who were sick a few weeks before and were tested on both occaisions. And for sure there is a false positive rate that could explain at least most of these cases.

          The reason for the short immunity period to cold viruses is their rapid evolution. Thus, the virus is diffferent enough in a few months that you can be reinfected. The immune response varies such that different people develop immunity on the basis of different epitopes on the virus, and some may have got it to an epitope that changes more, some to one that changes less.

        • Immunity is not just adaptive immunity. A healthy innate immunity is obviously what is keeping most infected people from being hurt by this illness.

          • Not so, there are multiple strain of the COVID-19 , with almost as many variations in virulence.
            Which strain did those people with few symptoms have?
            Does their antibodies prevent infection of the other strains?

          • You’ve been brainwashed to think that immunity is just adaptive immunity. Innate immunity is the first responder of the immune system and can stop an illness in its tracks when in optimal condition.

          • Now even though I smoked cigarettes (like a freight train) for nigh onto 65 years, ….. I must have been born with that “innate immunity” thingy because I am now, this day, 3 1/2 months shy of 80 years old ……. and I do not recall ever being afflicted with a flu virus, even though many of my good friends and work associates have suffered dearly because of their contagion.

            Now I did spend 6 days in the hospital, in isolation, as the result of a pneumonia diagnosis, which wasn’t my fault, nor my body’s immune system fault. Technically, it was the fault of my MD who prescribed the use of methotrexate to combat the effects of my RA affliction. 😊

          • You are probably the only one that is ever going to be happy with that definition and so it’s pointless to discuss it.

          • Now LdB, …. my wife, my friends, my GP and the cancer Doctor they assigned to my case that figured out that it was the methotrexate that was “zapping” my white corpuscle were all happy “with that definition”. 😊

          • A C Osborn
            April 28, 2020 at 5:41 am

            Not so, there are multiple strain of the COVID-19 , with almost as many variations in virulence.
            Which strain did those people with few symptoms have?
            Does their antibodies prevent infection of the other strains?
            ————————–

            It is this kind of rationale that gets us always in problems with life matters.

            We fail to realize that life functioning is far much superior to our techno-social one.
            We fail to recognize the beauty of what its called modulation processes.
            Meaning, that it is the rapid evolution of modules that we observe not the evolution of the structure in question.

            It is still a tractor, the same tractor, with same functionality and parameters of it’s function.
            It has not evolved suddenly to a new thing, like into a Bugatti Veyron because we detect that it is now made of high cost materials like that of a Bugatti prototype.

            The most rapid thing evolving is the modules and the modulation platform.
            Detection of variation, which is called a strain does not necessary mean an evolution of the virus, or functionality of it.

            Besides, in that account the antibody modulation has a much faster rapid evolution.
            Which can be easily jeopardized, considerably, by an unnecessary wrong vaccination, especially at the wrong time.

            Actually any detection of variation usually considered as strain, consist as a quality detection, not a functionality detection.

            Assigning causality of strains to different disease implications, in the case of the same virus, is worse than the simple mistake of “cause-correlation” aotu-conclusion.

            Antibodies do not prevent either the infection or the disease… or reinfection, or reemergence of the disease.
            Very simple… start considering the possibility of the “wrong questions” been the main problem there.

            Oh, well, you are very welcome to reject and not listen to what I am saying.

            cheers

            cheers

          • Happy for you guys I am trying to be polite but I really don’t care I would rather gouge my eyes out then get into an anti-vax discussion.

          • LdB
            April 28, 2020 at 9:15 pm

            Happy for you guys I am trying to be polite but I really don’t care I would rather gouge my eyes out then get into an anti-vax discussion.
            ————————————————-

            Then, please do stop talking about vaccines, as else you be an anti-vax dude.

            Only an anti-vax dude will consider rejection and not listen to the seriousness and potential of vaccines and vaccination.

            An anti-vax dude will deny definitely the reality of vaccine and vaccination potential.

            cheers

      • Ventilators and the policies of rush-to-the-bottom panic-babies are what’s killing patients.

    • Half the work force is a damn good start. Get them back to work NOW and let’s start undoing this draconian nonsense. Meanwhile we can be doing that other stuff. Don’t make healthy workers wait.

      • In response to Mr Cranch, one of the advantages of having a benchmark test to see how well lockdowns are working is to identify the moment at which ending the lockdowns becomes possible without undue risk.

        One needs to see the active-case growth rate go well below zero before ending lockdowns altogether. But there are some industries – particularly outdoor industries – where lockdowns can and should be ended at once.

      • Too late! A consortium of neo-Communist Western States (D) Governors have all agreed to lock-down and shut-down their States for another 30 days. Because … “science”. Because … “data”. My town of 50k residents has an infection rate of 0.0004% 18 cases and a death rate of 0.0000% 0 deaths. So these numbers are proof of what? That we are really good quarantine subjects? That none of the 50k people in our town are Chinese? Or know any Chinese? Yet a similar city next door to us has an Elder Care facility outbreak and mass death. We are the same demographics … so why the elderly people? How did they get exposed?

        What are the vectors delivering this disease? Why am I not getting ANY granularity for any of these “dumb” numbers? I have my suspicions. Where is the CDC? Shouldn’t they have LONG AGO identified the vectors? Essentially … NOBODY in my community has gotten the Kung Flu. Why? We all go to work in the same Bay Area as others … who have had many, many, more cases and deaths. Where is the CDC? What is the explanation? I’m growing weary of these graphs and charts which explain NOTHING. They do nothing to equip me to stay safe. My only logical conclusion? That my suburban town is safe? Kinda like for all the same reasons I choose to live here … safe. Otherwise, what is it? Random luck? No. That’s not it. Hey! CDC! How, why, and where am I at risk for contracting this disease!? You’re not helping me at all with your “data” and “science” (of failed models). It’s hard for me to have a balanced, intelligent response to this scourge … when you aren’t providing any useful information… I suspect … because … political correctness.

        • “Too late! A consortium of neo-Communist Western States (D) Governors have all agreed to lock-down and shut-down their States for another 30 days.”

          When those governors see how well other States are doing with lifting the restrictions, they will be feeling extra pressure to open up their economies.

          The U.S. economy is in gear now and is slowly starting to move forward. The various States opening up will find the right way to do things and the wrong way to do things, and everyone will learn from these lessons.

          We are on our way back. Some areas slower than others, but the pace is going to pick up in every State as we go forward and success is seen to be possible.

          People should wear their face masks in public. I see a lot of people not doing this. This is reckless behavior and will set back the opening of the economy. And you are putting your own loved ones in danger by going without a mask. Let’s be smart about this.

          • One of those states is Colorado.

            Like Kenji, I would like to know what are the factors that have made Colorado 3 times or worse (cases and deaths) than every single state surrounding it, including Arizona, which has a significantly higher population.

            I have my own hypothesis, but where is the CDC in providing guidance instead of fear.

          • One clue could be in the variety of strains.
            Are some more infective than others, more virulent than others?
            we know there are a lot of them, one of the latest one idenified is th Indian version.

    • Eric,
      It is highly unlikely that there will be a vaccine for the foreseeable future. Animal scientists have been working on vaccines for corona viruses that infect birds (think chickens) and pigs for years, now, with no success. We may well have to learn to live with this virus as we have others. Even the annual flu shot only provide 50% protection and, as I understand it, that’s in a good year when they guessed right.

    • In response to Mr Lerner, while we do not have enough information yet, the earliest analyses of those who have sadly died of the Chinese virus show that the overwhelming majority of those who die are both old and suffering from comorbidities, which, on their own without old age, do not greatly increase the likelihood of death.

      Mr Lerner is, of course, quite right about the necessity of contact-tracing. If that had been properly done right at the outset, as it was in Taiwan or South Korea, the pandemic could have been stopped in its tracks.

      Once it had not been thus halted, lockdowns became essential in countries with dense urban populations. Those who locked down latest, and have thus suffered the highest case-rates and death-rates, will need very large numbers of contact-tracers.

      In the UK, for instance, which was even later than the US in locking down, HM Government proposes to recruit 18,000 contact-tracers, but the sheer numbers of active cases require 100,000. In the US, with its larger population, the numbers required will be still greater. This is by no means an insuperable obstacle: there are plenty of people at home with not enough to do, and contact-tracing can be done from home. But it is necessary for governments to appreciate the scale of the work that is required and then – at long last – to get on with it.

      • Contact tracing is pointless at this stage. Any comparison to S.K. which acted very early when it made sense are misleading at best.

        80% of contagion is domestic: no need to “trace” them you test the whole household.

        The rest of your contacts under confinement are limited to people you got close to when out buying groceries : who you likely have no idea who they are. Shop workers and those serving the public should be tested regularly irrespective : they are in constant contact with the public.

        All the push for “contact tracing” in countries now affected by an epidemic are nothing more than authoritarian , police state population control dressed up as “public safely” .

        That is why the authoritarian CofB is still pushing this futile intrusion into our private lives.

        • That is not the idea in the UK, the contact tracing is part of ending the lock down and would be for new cases, not old ones.
          But with social distances and possibly masks continuing.

    • “Problem is, in the US 55%” suffers one or more of these ailments. Funny thing is they keep saying US is unhealthier and our healthcare system is worse then multiple countries including pretty much all the ones on the list w/higher mortality. Yet, US mortality is so much lower. So supposedly worse healthcare and health but better outcome, any guesses as to why no one in main stream media is asking THAT question?

      This seems to me to be a good test of those healthcare rankings. You know all the ones that rank “quality of healthcare” not based on quality but rather based on is it “free” i.e. socialist based. So, once again capitalism smacks the stuffing out of socialism. That is why no one is asking why.

      “It punishes the far Right because they tend to put the economy before all things” nice left wing propaganda repeat it enough and every European will believe it. I hear people saying freedom above all things, I don’t hear anyone saying economy above all things. And, those who care about the economy care because, the economy is about the people. Food is being wasted, processing plants are being shutdown, printing money won’t help when no one is actually harvesting, shipping and packaging food. Only an ignoramus would think the shutdown can continue like this tell fall or a vaccine is ready in a year.

      • “Problem is, in the US 55%” suffers one or more of these ailments. Funny thing is they keep saying US is unhealthier and our healthcare system is worse then multiple countries including pretty much all the ones on the list w/higher mortality. Yet, US mortality is so much lower. So supposedly worse healthcare and health but better outcome, any guesses as to why no one in main stream media is asking THAT question?

        Because they never get that far, they look at total numbers of deaths and say “see the US is doing the worst”, never factoring in the fact that of course US total numbers will be high because US has a much larger population size than the European countries with supposedly “better healthcare” they are comparing it to. As Lord M points out, when you account for population sizes, US is doing better, not worse, in regard to numbers of deaths.

        • I don’t for a moment believe that European healthcare is better. The socialists in the US think Europe is “better” because the indigent get free care. In the US, if you can’t pay, they let you die. Oh wait, that’s not true.

          Maybe they think it’s better because everyone gets the same standard of care. Oh wait, most European countries have options for private care.

          Let’s get to the bottom of this. They think it’s better because big government has a bigger role and more people are trapped in a bureaucratic scheme without options. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

          Having said that, it’s equally arbitrary to include the entire population of the US in the denominator while over half of the deaths were in metro New York. A more reasonable metric for comparison to European countries would be to divide metro NY deaths by metro NYC population.

          • Doing it that way, you would have to do the same with all the other countries. Separate out their densely populated populations (which is where the majority of the cases tend to be) and divide deaths in those areas by the population in those areas. otherwise it’s even more arbitrary to compare a dense metro area only to countries that all have various mixes of dense metro areas, spartan rural areas, and everything inbetween.

          • John, fair enough. Maybe look at deaths in NY, NJ, CT divided by the total population of those three states. That would be comparable in area and population to many European countries.

            Anyway, the real reason the US has lower deaths per capita may have to do with quality of care, but my gut says it has more to do with a large population and many in low population density compared to Europe.

      • Ironargonaut, my thoughts exactly. Socialized medicine is always ranked highly while what they are really ranking is the availability of “free” insurance. Insurance doesn’t save lives, medical care saves lives. This pandemic will show the world what health care really is about.

    • There’s confusion over ‘diabetes’, which causes some swelling of tissues.

      Some people know they have diabetes and keep their blood glucose level under control.
      Others do not. Note that diabetes is often correlated with obesity and poor physical condition (sit on a couch consuming pastries and you’ll become a potato).

  4. My dear favorite UK poster on this site – Lord Christopher Monckton of Brenchley,

    I am finding myself in the uncomfortable position of flatly disagreeing with a few of your points.

    You appear to believe this virus *could* have been stopped in its tracks, but I highly doubt that. It’s purported R-Naught (R0) is around 2 or greater, and I find no evidence contrary to that. Given the behavior of people, once this virus had touched the lives of a few dozen people there was likely no stopping it, especially in Western countries where travel is a way of life. One person entering a crowded subway and the virus is off in every direction. We might have slowed the progression down more than the Chinese, but I find no reason to believe we could have stopped it’s spread completely. Consider that most people are asymptomatic, and that it would have taken weeks for a doctor to isolate the cause once deaths started occurring. I am not defending the Chinese actions of subverting the truth and making this much worse than it already was, but I cannot agree we were likely to stop it in its tracks.

    Second, I think its way too early to be deciding that immunity does not last and that herd immunity is not possible. The immune response will be different in different people – some people may not develop a strong immune response while others do. It is also likely that in some cases of purported reinfection, the virus was never cleared. And then there is always the false positive for test results that must be considered. The antigen immune response will be based on proteins the virus uses to enter into cells, and so far these appear to be conserved. Though the virus is an RNA type virus, there are certain envelop regions that if mutated, result in non-successful virus progeny, and if preserved, reinfection should not be common at least more than seasonally.

    Other than those two points, I find your postings well crafted and enjoyable. (tilting my hat) Good day to you sir!

    • While it may be too early to be deciding that immunity does not last, a researcher at Texas A&M University who has studied coronaviruses for years said in a televised interview that most antibodies from other types are shed by the body within 3 to 6 months. It seems unreasonable to expect that Covid-19 antibodies would behave significantly differently than those of other coronaviruses. This has not been around long and some reinfections have already been reported. I am concerned that “herd immunity” is not likely to be achieved with this virus and those persons with comorbidities are going to need to be defensive and where possible change behaviors and lifestyles to prevent them.

    • Robert of Texas is a model of how to disagree politely. Let me answer his two points of disagreement.

      First, if China had complied with Article 6 of the International Health Regulations, and had been open about the new infection, and had reported it to the international community within 24 hours of first detection – i.e., on November 18 2019, a day after its first discovery on November 17 – the virus need never have left Wuhan. I agree that once it had flown all over the world with the 7 million Chinese who left Wuhan before January 20, when the regime and its poodles at the WHO finally admitted what they can be proven to have known by mid-December and 1 January respectively, namely that person-to-person transmission is possible, the only successful strategy would have been that of South Korea and Taiwan – test, track and trace.

      Secondly, I have said nothing to the effect that it has been “decided” that immunity does not long persist. I have said that there is evidence that it does not long persist and that, therefore, herd immunity cannot be relied upon yet. In general, the mean immunity period after clearing coronaviridae is only 3-6 months, and there have been a number of credible reports, including one on 19 South Korean patients, where the immunity period was considerably shorter than 3 months. More information on the immunity period is, therefore, needed, and it would not yet be prudent to assume that herd immunity will be an effective strategy.

      • Lord Monckton
        You say in your response to Robert of Texas that had China reported the virus to the international community, it would never have left Wuhan. I don’t find your argument persuasive.

        To prevent the virus spreading, a strict local set of controls would have been required, to prevent the virus spreading in and beyond Wuhan. It would not have made any difference whether or not the international community was warned.

        Imagine if the virus had started in Chicago or in Leeds (in God’s own county). I very much doubt the government could have implemented movement restrictions with sufficient speed and severity to stop the virus spreading.

        While the Chinese were lax in their reporting of the virus, the controls they put in place created a window of 1-2 months for the global community to prepare itself. Sadly, this opportunity was missed.

        • What controls? You mean the ones where they stopped domestic travel but allowed international travel to continue for a month more, thus letting the virus escape their borders? Those controls?

    • So what if we did contact tracing and found that people within the chain of infection worked at a bar, or restaurant … or in a meat processing factory? Wouldn’t it make sense to identify these potential HIGH RISK exposure potentials … FAST! And keep them isolated?

      If nothing can be done to slow the infection, as you claim … then why do anything? It’s kinda like the WHO proclamation that “just because you have the COVID antibodies, doesn’t mean you won’t get reinfected”. Wha, wha, whaaaat? So vaccinations are useless? Funny … never in the 60 years since I received my one and only Polio vaccination has anyone scolded me … “but don’t believe the vaccination will prevent you from contracting polio”. What the hell is going on with this China virus? And what the hell is going on with our vaunted centers of epidemiology!? What the hell do these people actually DO!? Or know!? Something feeeeels really OFF about this pandemic and the narratives following it

  5. In Canada, a neurophysiologist who dared expose the mismanagement of the crisis in Saskatchewan, especially regarding to lack of testing, was forced to post an apology that sounded like a Communist show trial out of the 1930s
    Watch his apology dated April 14: https://www.facebook.com/588120184/videos/10158026757955185/

    But that was not enough.
    Nearly two weeks after his contrition act, the public broadcaster Canadian Broadcasting Corporation decided to go for the jugular and make an example of him through what amounts to an indictment piece
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/u-of-r-biology-prof-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists-1.5541748

    The message is clear: do not dare contradicting the WHO/Vaccine lobby or face consequences.
    Hence the uniform praise for their Health Officers media can shove up Canadian populace’s throats.

  6. population of metro Miami….. +6,000,000

    CV deaths ~300…………….. 0.005%

    =========
    population Florida Keys….. ~75,000

    CV deaths 3………………….. 0.005%

  7. Something new to digest. (knowledgeofhealth.com/molecule-for-our-times/)

    Inositol downregulates IL-6, which apparently is a major driver of cytokine storm that damages the lungs in covid patients. It’s a cheap, widely available dietary supplement that can be added to one’s immunity toolkit.

    These preliminary data support the hypothesis of a causative role of IL-6 in driving the inflammatory response that leads to morbidity and mortality in patients with COVID-19 who develop acute respiratory distress syndrome. Therefore, it has been proposed that monoclonal antibodies targeting IL-6 or drugs able to downregulate IL-6 may be effective in blocking inflammatory storms, therefore representing a potential treatment for severe COVID 19 patients. … inositol specifically down-regulates IL-6 levels… Overall, these findings indicate that IL-6 is a major target of myo-inositol and raise the possibility that Sars-CoV-2 patients with a high level of IL-6-driven inflammation may show benefit from treatment with myo-inositol.

    Inositol and pulmonary function. Could myo-inositol treatment downregulate inflammation and cytokine release syndrome in SARS-CoV-2?/b>
    https://www.europeanreview.org/article/20715

    Link to pdf in above link > https://www.europeanreview.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/3426-3432-1.pdf

  8. ‘Since the initial data suggest that “herd immunity” may not be possible with this virus, the period of immunity in some cases having proven to be very short, there is no advantage in keeping anyone under indefinite house arrest”

    Wow. There is no basis for the conjecture that immunity is not possible. I call BS. There is no evidence of the immunity being short term. As viruses get weaker with time, letting it get around among the healthy population is a good thing. Wow.

      • CB you are very well read, yes immunity is one of the items up in the air at the moment. The other possibility being openly discussed is there may already be 2 or 3 proper clinical strains as opposed to just minor DNA strains.

        • In response to LdB, there are at least three major strains of the virus. The ancestral strain is A, and then there are B and C. The problem is that the genome is short and the populations that the virus has reached are varied. Both of these circumstances facilitate mutation, so we cannot even be confident that there will not be new mutations.

          Mutation limits the options for vaccine treatment, since the vaccine must exploit only those features of the virus that are common to all strains. If that is not possible, there must be a vaccine against each individual strain, as with the flu.

          That is one of many reasons why one cannot yet be confident that a vaccine will be discovered in the near future.

          • I have to disagree. Mutations have to translate into function. Most of the times they don’t and even more times they are detrimental not beneficial. That is how evolution works.

          • Ron we are talking about clinical strains (look up the definition) … clinical strains by definition have to translate into a function.

          • LdB, I haven’t found any information that the categorization of the different “strains” is anything more than a classification of their RNA sequence divergence. Only speculation about different biological properties.

      • If the thymus isn’t working correctly due to zinc deficiency, then T-cells won’t be produced sufficiently to develop adaptive immunity. So it may be a matter of personal immune health rather a characteristic of the virus.

    • It seems one has to get out of lockdown. And you should leave lockdown gradually {and severe lockdown could lower everyone’s general immune system]. So, one can test whether people have a particular immunity to the Chinese virus. Lift various restrictions, wait a week, adjust which could include lifting more restrictions, and etc.
      –I’ve worked the coronavirus front line — and I say it’s time to start opening up
      By Daniel G. MurphyApril 27, 2020 | 7:02pm

      COVID-19 has been the worst health-care disaster of my 30-year ­career, because of its intensity, duration and potential for lasting impact. The lasting impact is what worries me the most. And it’s why I now believe we should end the lockdown and rapidly get back to work.–
      https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

      • Mr Baikie is right: it is now time to start phasing out the lockdowns. They have achieved their primary purpose of preventing the healthcare system from being completely overwhelmed. Cautious dismantling should begin as soon as each nation’s daily growth rate in active cases falls far enough below zero.

        • “Mr Baikie is right: it is now time to start phasing out the lockdowns.”

          That is taking place right this minute in many States of the United States, and in Europe, too.

          We are on the move now and will be picking up steam every day.

        • There are even reports that the US health care system is completely underwhelmed. Empty hospitals. Many facing bankruptcy. Sorry, no link, this came from TV news.

          • Yes, it was an overreaction to declare that normal hospital operations had to stop in order to accomodate the Wuhan virus cases. This would be applicable in some areas like New York City, but other areas of the nation had small numbers of infections and could have carried on normal operations if allowed to do so. These are lessons learned. We’ll no how to handle this kind of situation better in the future because of this experience.

            The restrictions on hospitals are being corrected right now. Some states have already lifted this restriction with most of the others soon to follow. My state will open up the hospitals to the regular customers on Friday.

    • Yes, Charles Higley, I see this sort of “herd immunity may not be possible” statement as extremely problematic as well. Even if it is true that the virus can mutate easily, lending itself to repeat cases in that sense, wouldn’t it still be crucial to know if the re-infections are much less lethal or less serious due to residual immunity or partial immunity? The repeat infections might easily be no more serious for the individuals involved than any regular cold virus, or maybe even not as serious for at least some of the people in their vicinity (who would possibly also have previous exposure or immunity, depending on just how far you think the virus has spread).

      As some sort of indication of this, see the following, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

      This testing study done in Los Angeles County suggests a death rate among CoVID cases as such, that would now be roughly *40 times or so* less than originally suggested. So this is a calculated death rate down from a 7.5 percent estimate originally, down to *less than 0.2 percent* now, if the study is correct. This is because it now looks like about five percent of the total population may have contracted the virus, according to randomized testing for the relevant antibodies (and this is many more people contracting, i.e., many more ‘live bodies’ dealing with the virus than was originally thought) .

      As a further indication of how resistant people can be to the CoVID virus, there is also the fact that seems to just get repeated (with no perceptiveness as to positive implications), that most of the fatalities are the elderly, with progressively less lethal consequences as you go down in age ranges? As I would understand the most general prospect, coronaviruses are distributed throughout the human environment already? So isn’t the omnipresence of that general type of virus a likely reason why young, healthy immune systems are able to throw CoVID off, or at least allow for ready survival after contracting this particular kind of coronavirus?

      *Before* we assume that the way to bat down every large population “hot spot” outbreak is to institute debilitating lock downs, shouldn’t we have some better numbers first, or some real scientific indication that the *lack* of a lock down is the *cause* of the hot spot? Surely it is very strange that this coronavirus, this virus that is *not* an influenza, is nevertheless somehow assumed to be as potentially lethal to everyone as the worst kinds of *real* influenza?

      • In response to Mr Blenkinsop, it is known that the Chinese virus is ten times more infectious than flu and ten times deadlier. However, the deaths are concentrated among those who are both elderly and suffering from comorbidities. The mortality in the population under 60, even with comorbidities, is low. Therefore, allowing younger people to get back to work and letting the elderly and infirm take appropriate precautions makes very good sense, as soon as the daily compound growth rate in active cases has fallen well below zero.

        • Er, yes, well, I mentioned the University of Southern California Los Angeles County study, which seemingly indicated an actual “per person tested as having antibodies” death rate (or ‘per cases’ death rate in that sense), of something like 30 to 55 times *lower* on the relevant death rate as such than previously thought? If this holds up and isn’t some kind of mistake, it tends to belie the “ten times deadlier” thing?

          With seemingly no way to validate alarming conclusions, or with conflicting evidence like this, are we now down to a value judgement, or a question of what expert do you trust?

        • Christopher
          You claim, “…, it is known that the Chinese virus is ten times more infectious than flu and ten times deadlier.” Can you supply a citation to support that? After all, the earliest deaths in the US appear to be in February, and now nearly 3 months later, the total deaths are approximately 49,000. Allowing for a possible doubling over the next 3 months, we are looking at <100,000, probably less with Summer nearly on us. Considering that the US CDC estimates that the number of flu deaths in the 2017-18 flu season was 80,000, the ratio is NOT 10:1 as claimed. Are you being careless with uncited claims, or is there a definitional misunderstanding?

          • I don’t pretend to be an expert, but some points …

            1) I have to assume the annual flu season starts with a seeding spread fairly uniformly, far and wide throughout the country, while this virus was seeded from airport arrivals and moving out from there. I assume that vast parts of the country have not been sufficiently seeded to see its effects yet. While the fatality rate may hold, the numbers will continue to grow. We’re nowhere close to done yet.

            2a) Annual flu deaths are likely far over counted because the CDC assumes missed cases in the modeling … yes, the flu death numbers are the results of modeling, not actual counts.
            https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86176

            And …

            “University of Oxford infectious disease epidemiologist Christophe Fraser estimated that the actual infection fatality rate … of seasonal influenza is 0.04%.”
            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/is-coronavirus-worse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far

            2b) Also from the second link …

            “Simonsen believes that the IFR for the coronavirus will eventually turn out to be on the low end of current estimates, possibly as low as 0.2% or 0.3%, but emphasized that this is “still far greater than … for seasonal influenza.”

            That’s from a summary of seven antibody surveys in the US and Europe, which are discussed in the article.

            Further in the article:
            “The most exhaustive and up-to-date pre-serology-survey estimate of Covid-19’s IFR that I’m aware of, from a peer-reviewed article in Lancet Infectious Diseases by a group of researchers at Imperial College London, is 0.66%. If the IFR of the seasonal flu is 0.04%, these blood surveys show Covid-19 to be anywhere from three times deadlier to 27 times deadlier — and given the incompleteness of current death counts, the true range seems likely to be higher than that.”

    • Mr Higley should talk less and read more. Almost two months ago a study on 19 reinfected patients in South Korea was published and there have been several more since. Besides, in general the mean immunity period for coronaviridae is 3-6 months: therefore, until more is known about the mean immunity period for this particular coronavirus it cannot be prudently assumed that herd immunity is a responsible strategy. One may hope, but one must not rashly assume.

      • Indeed. When we come up with a cure for the common cold I will believe that we have a handle on viruses. My question for people who insist that immunity from coronavirus is an iron clad guarantee is this: Why don’t we develop herd immunity from the common cold?

        • I assume you know. But for those who don’t, very high mutation rate in coronaviruses. Many strains, each one of which can be vaccinated against, individually. See flu jabs.

        • Easy. “Common cold” is a mixture off ~200 viruses, most of them rhinoviruses not corona viruses. Impossible to find a vaccine that works against all of them in one shot.

          For the flu there is a general vaccine in the making after researchers have come across the so-called super antibodies that gave a hint of which structure of the viruses might be effective to target and is 100% similar in all the strains.

          • … might …

            In the meantime we have the annual flu shot which sometimes turns out to be just a wild ass guess about which virus to target.

          • @ commieBob
            The antibodies neutralizing all known influenza strains exist in a very small minority of patients, it is “just” an issue generating a vaccine that triggers the generation of something similar in vaccinated specimens with tolerable side effects and high success rate in humans.

            Before the discovery of these antibodies hopes for a general vaccine were indeed very low.

            The vaccines are in clinical phase II right now. Flu is not SARS-CoV-2 so things are not pushed as hard.

      • Besides, in general the mean immunity period for coronaviridae is 3-6 months: therefore,

        He states “3-6 months” as though 6mo is the longest it will last. In a world where first cases were only discovered 6 months ago it’s clear that no one can have an immunity which is longer than six months !

        If you were infected in Wuhan on 1st Jan 2020 and have developed a life long immunity , at the moment you have an immunity of less than 5 months. That statement implying a 6mo limit is BS.

        Yes, a very small number of people have been detected to have been reinfected, this this is at anecdotal numbers.

        Once again CofB has adopted a dogmatic ill-founded opinion and then goes out to search to something to provide some bias confirmation.

        Another failure for our self-appointed authority on COVID-19

      • Almost two months ago a study on 19 reinfected patients in South Korea was published and there have been several more since

        How do we know for sure that they were reinfected rather than “still infected”? What measures were taken to ensure they weren’t ‘false negative’ cases? Did they test negative twice?

      • Christopher
        An unstated assumption is that the tests are 100% accurate. I’m sure you know that they aren’t! Some of those that tested negative could have been false-negatives. Some of the ones who subsequently tested positive, could be false-positives. Until such time as error rates are incorporated into claims and assessments, we aren’t really doing science. It is little better than innumerate hand waving and speculating. Please try to be more precise in your claims. I know that you are capable of it.

  9. “And keep watching the no-lockdown experiment in Sweden: its greatest test comes in May.”

    Not sure why you say this.
    At looks like, Spain,Italy, France, and UK have flattened the curve. And slowly get out of lockdown and within 3 weeks be as much out lockdown, as could expect to be out lockdown in 3 months.
    Or I don’t know what being out lockdown will look like in 3 months but one at least try to get to such a degree being out lockdown within 3 weeks. Or not gather in crowds, wear masks, and still wash hands.
    And it seems you might have slightly more crowded conditions, outside as compared in enclosed spaces.
    Or maybe outside stadium could be 1/4 filled. Though perhaps you don’t want 1/2 filled outside stadiums in 3 weeks or within 3 months.
    I think I would more worried about 1/2 filled bus, than 1/4 filled outside stadium, though maybe a 1/2 filled bus with everyone having good masks, could better than 1/4 filled stadium with only a few wearing masks.
    Though it would be nice to be able to actually measure and get more than just guessing.
    Anyways, I think Spain,Italy, France, and UK should starting to get out lockdown and see what happens a week later, and if that not problem, lessen it more, and give it another week, and still going ok, continue same for couple weeks. And by this much time, one will probably know a lot more and want more longer term policies and stuff like air travels to other others countries, etc.
    And with Sweden, it seems they simply continue what they are currently doing, and when Spain, Italy, France, and UK are ready to have longer term policies, Sweden might likewise decide upon longer terms policies
    And then got to figure out, what measures will use when entering the Flu Season.
    And hopeful know a lot more at that time.

  10. Regarding John Cook’s graphs:

    On the “Covid-19 Cases” graph, one pixel of vertical space on the y axis represents 1,740 people. On the “Covid-19 Death” graph, one pixel of space on the y axis represents 100 people. This is graphic-design sophistry and graphic-design dishonesty at its best/worst.

    Visually equating the heights of the y axes in both graphs, as he does, distorts the relationship between COVID-19 cases and deaths by an order of magnitude, making Mr. Cook, not only “Mr. two orders of magnitude woopsie” (funny), but also Mr. three-orders-of-magnitude con artist.

    His is an intentional effort to make COID-19 death numbers look as big as COVID-19 detected-case numbers. A more honest visual representation would like this:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/suwdoxzkbm9npvb/COVID-19_JohnCookSophistryRevealed.png

  11. I am sure you are correct and logical in what you are saying. Lord Monckton. But you are not saying it all – you are not being ethical, charitable or humane. You are completely avoiding the really basic question, “Does the end justify the means?” I am sure you personally can cope with lock-downs. With a lordship go roomy castles, parkland surrounds and money galore. Lock-downs can be positively enjoyable for you guys. Likewise you legislators who passed the cruel legislation will find it equally bearable – so easy to pass legislation which does not hurt yourselves at all.

    But the disturbing fact is that the real sufferers from the cruel rules and regulations are all the now many millions of lowly paid people all over the world who have lost their jobs, livelihoods, homes and general mental well-being. These are people who are continuously on an economic knife edge, literally living from pay day to pay day to manage their daily lives; people who are not very bright intellectually and often handicapped by various mental and social problems. And the millions of small one-person business folks who suddenly face bankruptcy and poverty.

    Here in New Zealand charities are now handing out thousands more food parcels every day – each parcel representing one more distraught individual fellow human being – who probably never before has had to go to charities to receive food help. This is all caused by the lock-down – and all just in order to follow the ideological dream to contain, even eradicate, this very ordinary, not even particularly dangerous pandemic. Hubris par excellence.

    Does the end justify the means? If you really think about it, no lives are actually saved – they are only postponed. And, amazingly, with Covid 19 mostly only postponed for a couple of years!! Don’t get fooled by big fatality numbers. We die only one death each – which we all have to get through that some time or other. The question we should ask is, “Are lock-downs ethical?”

    • The real problem is that businesses are getting wiped throwing much of the middle class into dire financial straits, and these are the people providing many or even most of the jobs that have been lost. It’s not just mom and pop micro businesses that are at risk. This induces problems up the chain: leases don’t get paid, parts or materials don’t get ordered. Farmers are being wiped out. Dairies are going under because they sell to restaurants (shuttered) and lack packaging to convert to retail. The workers they employ aren’t the problem, it’s that many won’t have jobs to return to.

      • Randomengineer rightly points out some of the knock-on costs of the Chinese virus. However, the capital stock remains largely undamaged. As soon as the lockdowns can be lifted, recovery will be quite rapid.

    • Mr Esperson appears to have misunderstood the head posting, which says that lockdowns can be dismantled provided that some sensible precautions are taken.

      At the beginning of this series I advocated lockdowns because if this virus – ten times more infectious and ten times more dangerous than flu – had been allowed to continue unchecked there would have been millions of deaths worldwide, and possibly tens of millions. And that would have overwhelmed our healthcare systems.

      Furthermore, according to HM Government’s Office for Budget Reponsibility, it would have cost the global economy even more than the lockdowns have cost it.

      Therefore, those countries with high urban population densities that had failed to take the prompt precautions taken in examplary fashion in South Korea and Taiwan were compelled – like it or not – to institute lockdowns.

      Now, as the benchmark tests we publish here daily show, there is no further need for lockdowns in those countries that have reduced their active-case growth rate to well below zero.

      • With all due respect, Lord Monckton, I misunderstood nothing. Nowhere in my comment to your article do I query or even mention whether “lock-downs can now be dismantled”.

        But in your response to my comment you simply ignored, did not even mention, the main thrust of my comment, namely that lock-downs, by their very nature, are unethical – and that legislation imposing such is unworthy of civilised, humane, enlightened nations.

        Do you believe our Covid 19 lock-downs represent moral, humane legislation? Does the end justify the means? If you answer yes to this question you must back it with reasoned arguments how and why – and accept the rest of us picking holes in your arguments.

        There lies the real conundrum.

    • I will ask again, “what guarantee there is that if no lockdowns were imposed at the last minute, the economy would survive?”

      There is the case that the unchecked virus would be worse for the economy for those countries/regions where the infection rates are very high, as in Lombardy and New York.

      I wonder what the state of the economy was in Lombardy just before the last minute lockdown, to save the medical system.

      The lockdowns were imposed in order TO SAVE THE HOSPITAL AND HEALTH SUPPORT TO THE POPULATION, not to stop deaths. To stop THE RATE OF DEATHS so that hospitals and funeral services could cope. This stop has been achieved by the lockdowns.

      “the now many millions of lowly paid people all over the world” would probably be in the same impoverished state if lock downs were not imposed, from the lack of health care with hospitals out of action, and the rate of people over the age of 60 ( which includes executives and governments) to become incapacitated and possibly die in a short while. (would Johnson have recovered without the NHS?)

      Individual countries and regions maybe needed only first measures to save the health system , and only heavily populated and problematic regions should have gone to lockdown, not whole countries. That is a fair question, and Sweden’s development in economy will tell us. The future analyses will help map a plan for such emergencies.

      • would Johnson have recovered without the NHS?

        Or alternatively, would he have received the same level of care in an overstretched service if he had been just an ordinary Joe, and not BoJo?

    • “Does the end justify the means?”

      Well, when you have no knowledge about a new, unknown virus that spreads very fast you don’t really know what the end is going to be. A lockdown is always justified under those circumstances. It would be irresponsible not to assume from the beginning that the virus is very deadly and act accordingly.

      We will lockdown in the future if we get another unknown virus popping up that is spreading wildly. But it will be different in the future. We will have all the medical equipment we need to handle a virus problem, and society will have the experience that we can lockdown our economies for a short time and come out the other side whole, oe nearly so.

      And we will put in place strategies that will allow us to detect the presence of unknown infections in the population and hopefully we can nip the problem in the bud without widespread lockdowns or even any lockdowns at all. And our medical technology sector is working overtime which likely as not will be making big breakthroughs in virus science.

      Give it about a month, and let’s see what things look like then. I think the picture will be much more positive.

      The Good News is it looks like this lockdown and startup is working. Now let’s see how the economy behaves. It should behave well. There was a lot of demand in the economy three months ago and most of that demand has not gone away. I heard this morning that the U.S. car manufacturers are looking at opening their factories back up in a couple of weeks.

      Hang in there, everybody. And remember who put you in this position: the Chinese leadership. All this pain and suffering and loss is on their heads and hands. They will pay for their crimes.

      • Tom
        Paraphrasing you, “… A lockdown is always justified” “… when you have no knowledge about a new, unknown virus that spreads very fast.” In other words, you are advocating extreme reactions curtailing personal freedom based on virtually no information. If someone were to drop dead on the street, and someone yelled “Gas!”, would the government be justified in locking down the whole city? That is part of the problem with the whole climate issue. People know almost nothing about the probability of speculations, yet want to upend the economy, based on claims of could, might, may, possibly. I, for one, would like compelling evidence, rather than concerns derived from unsupported speculation.

        • “Paraphrasing you, “… A lockdown is always justified” “… when you have no knowledge about a new, unknown virus that spreads very fast.” In other words, you are advocating extreme reactions curtailing personal freedom based on virtually no information.”

          I’m advocating we take the same actions we took with the Wuhan virus. It is an extreme reaction, to an extreme situation, and most of the people involved in the United States are voluntarily social distancing themselves in order to curb the virus. There is a difference in asking everyone to stay home and locking people in their homes.

          At any time during this lockdown, I could have walked outside and got in my car and could have driven to any place in my state to which I wanted to drive. I have never felt that my freedoms have been taken away. I see the reason for the rules. I agree they are necessary and am willing to abide by them for the greater good of society.

          Now, the rules are being relaxed, so nobody has lost their personal freedoms, at least, not for long. You lose some of your personal freedoms when you join the military, but it is necessary for the greater good (winning battles), so you put up with it under the circumstances, and when your service is over your full freedoms are back in effect. The same applies here with the Wuhan virus, imo.

          • Tom
            You may not have lost your personal freedom to travel, but what you overlook is that businesses were shut by the force of law. Many of those small businesses will never re-open. The employees may find replacement work, but will have acquired debt and may have had to spend their retirement savings to survive. Their credit scores will be impacted, causing them to pay more for loans in the future. There have been some people in some states arrested and fined for violating the order to shelter in place. Universities are furloughing employees, and some universities may be forced into bankruptcy. Large corporations with more cash reserves will survive, but their profits will suffer, which means that shareholders will forego dividends. Some states have closed gun stores. In general, the things that provide us with a lifestyle that elevates us above just surviving have been declared “non-essential.” While you can drive to the mall, you can’t buy anything there. All for the questionable advantage over simple social distancing that is really the most important action.

            If I understand you, losing any or all of one’s constitutionally guaranteed freedoms is acceptable, as long as it doesn’t last for a long time. I’m reminded of a quote: “Justice delayed is justice denied.” That could be changed to “Freedom suspended is freedom denied.”

  12. “Let people decide for themselves how much risk they are willing to take.” is the answer. If there is no herd immunity there is no vaccine (spare me the arguments please). One(s) cannot stay quarantined forever.

    • In response to Markl, herd immunity and a vaccine are clean different things. In an ideal world, one would have both. At present, however, we have neither. That is why governments had to take precautions. Fortunately, it is evident that the precautions have worked, so that some countries are now cautiously lifting their lockdowns.

      Caution is necessary. On the Japanese island of Hokkaido, the lockdown was lifted, the virus began spreading again, and a fiercer lockdown had to be introduced.

  13. Another maddening thing about the numbers is that the raw data has been so badly corrupted. Aside from the fact that the criteria for death and infection counting keep changing with time and location, every compilation graph of total cases and deaths by nation should be overlaid with a huge red banner reading “Note: Communist China is lying through its arse and most likely has more cases and deaths as the rest of the world combined.”

    • What I find amusing is the number of people expecting that communist China would act in any other way than it its own interests? Even if they were lying, why would we ever expect the truth? — such is a false expectation based on a selfish sense of entitlement, embedded in a naive expectation that all countries and all governments act with a unified interest in the welfare of all other countries and governments.

      The USA has severely injured itself by its decisions regarding viral mutation, and now it wants to blame another country, instead of facing up to the reality of viruses and the propensity of inexperience to over react to something that has been going on in nature, long before we had the internet to stoke our paranoia.

    • David is right. The 7000 pampered bureaucrats at the WHO failed to devise or to enforce a common reporting standard, and China’s data are so entirely unreliable that even HM Government, which normally kowtows, has ceased to use China’s fictitious data for comparisons in its daily press conferences.

      • Yes I agree but HMG still persists in presenting the USA in a bad light with a daily Global Comparison graph replicating John Cook’s dreadful red graphs .
        The message being sent seems to be ‘ we know we haven’t done very well so far but at least we are better than the USA and are on a par with our continental neighbours ‘
        Professor Chris Whitty yesterday said ‘ we know these graphs are not perfect but they give a general indication of a global comparison ‘

        Absolute nonsense they are a straightforward manipulation of data in the most disingenuous way.

        Makes me wonder what else will be distorted .
        Brexit , lockdown , the climate Armageddon ….

        Well done on this post and others .
        We’ll meet again !

  14. More serious problems with the numbers: the number of “confirmed cases” is a function of how many people have been tested — but it is clear that most people who are infected are not tested, whether because they do not feel at all ill (asumptomatic), are ill but don’t bother to get tested, or got tested first and became infected later. The death numbers are also unreliable owing to different reporting standards in different countries — dead because of Covid-19, dead with Covid-19, dead but not tested for Covid, which deaths are included in the count? The only relevant statistic is a comparison of the number of people needing hospital care — whatever the cause — and the capacity of the local system to provide the needed care. That’s a stat people need in order to make decisions. Everything else is just rumination…

    • Mr Schroeder says there is no evidence of exponential transmission of the Chinese virus. In this he is incorrect. During the three weeks preceding Mr Trump’s declaration of a state of national emergency, the mean daily compound growth rate in cumulative confirmed cases was approaching 20%. The compound growth rate in deaths was still higher.

      In an earlier posting in this series, I provided a blink comparator for that three-week period, with the actual number of cumulative cases plotted to scale, and then an exponential curve calculated from the mean daily case-growth rate. The two curves were visibly near-coincident.

      Fortunately, most governments that had failed to follow Taiwan and South Korea in testing, isolating, tracking and tracing realized that that exponential spread could not safely be permitted to continue without overwhelming healthcare services and killing millions to tens of millions. So they took precautions. The lockdowns continue to be wickedly costly, but without them, as the Office for National Statistics in the UK has concluded, the economic cost to the world would have been even greater.

  15. “Since the initial data suggest that “herd immunity” may not be possible with this virus, the period of immunity in some cases having proven to be very short, there is no advantage in keeping anyone under indefinite house arrest. ”

    What about vaccines? Are they possible?

    • In response to Global Cooling, one may hope for a vaccine but not yet assume that one will be found quickly or at all. Researchers at Oxford University, with a good track record going back 30 years, are 80% confident that they have engineered a vaccine and clinical trials are already underway. If they are right, they will have made the first million doses by September: indeed, they are so confident that, unless there are serious problems with the first test subjects, they will make those million doses on spec. Of the hundreds of research teams worldwide looking for a vaccine, the Oxford research seems the most promising at present.

      However, we still have no vaccine against SARS, for instance, so it is not yet safe to assume that a vaccine will be found.

      • SARS was extinguished before a vaccine even could enter phase II so no surprise nobody put more money into it and we have none. 90% of the cost in developing a drug or vaccine is clinical testing and to put it on the market. Research is cheap in comparison cause PhDs earn way less than MDs.

        The real important piece is if the amino acid sequence of the virus is changed due to mutations. So far it has not and there is no evolutionary pressure that would favor such a development. The virus is, unfortunately, very well adapted to its new host.

  16. “Particularly since the threat of hospitals becoming overwhelmed has been averted, it is now possible to end lockdowns at once for the under-60s. Let them all go back to work, university or school, starting with those where the risk of infection is smallest, provided that they keep their distance where possible and wear face-masks so that their coughs and sneezes cannot spread the virus: the South Koreans are right about masks, as about much else.”

    As true now as it was about 6 weeks ago…

    • Mr Haigh is of course right that it was true six weeks ago that only old people with comorbidities are at significant risk. But it was not known to be true six weeks ago, because at that time the only data were from China, which has proven to be a near-totally unreliable source of information.

      Now that the initial Chinese reports of the age and comorbidity profile of fatalities have been borne out by Western experiments, such as the analysis of the first 2249 intensive-care cases by the UK’s Office for National Statistics, governments can prudently allow the under-60s to get back to work.

      • Christopher…….As someone who has, as of today, been locked down under Spanish government restrictions for 45 days, I can assure you that the death rate certainly in Italy 6 weeks ago (i.e. early to mid March) was in the hundreds per day so there was already clear evidence that the virus had a propensity to cause death primarily in the old and particularly those with comorbidities. We didn’t have to rely simply on Chinese “data”.

        So Jimmy Haigh’s observation is indeed true and the appropriate course of action to focus on protecting specific “at risk” groups (elderly, immunocompromised, etc) could have been implemented WITHOUT destroying the economy of so many countries.

  17. CMoB writes;

    “It punishes the far Right because they tend to put the economy before all things, and to ignore the daily growth rate, and thus not to take a pandemic of this kind seriously until it is far, far too late.”

    Well… Sorry but you should have flagged this with an In My Opinion tab, because frankly this is projection, not fact.

    The ‘Far Right’. Those guys again. Did we ever define who the Far Right were? If they vary from the Alt Right? If they are all old, white, male and racist or if the racist ones were simply the male, white ones in the later years of their lives? Who is the current bench mark? Anyone to the Right of Marx? Of Bernie?

    Having failed to define who these ‘Far Right’ people are, the argument then implies that the Far Right love the economy more than anything else to the extent that reports of a growing problem in China were simply ignored. Is there any proof of this?

    Instead I put to you that the average conservative is and was less impressed by globalism, less impressed by big government, and less inclined to blindly follow the word of such bloated unfocused organisations such as WHO.

    (WHO, remember, were more interested in promoting Lady Gaga. We may have been in a planet wide emergency, but hey, Lady Gaga is about to Skype with us. Your analysis may vary, but doesn’t really strike me as the act of an organisation 100% dedicated to protecting global health.)

    I put to you that far from the ‘Far Right’ wanting to ignore everything, it was the conservatives of the world who first started to fly in the face of the WHO and Globalism, who started to ignore the attempts of using White Imperial Guilt to shut down criticism of China’s sieve like borders and actually being to ban international travel.

    I also put to you that far from ignoring reports in favour of the all powerful economy, the conservatives of the world are the sorts willing to constantly adjust their thinking and actions based on the current best information. Your Country May Vary, because your country DOES vary, but you will find it is the rational people of the world who are rejecting the calls for more and longer lockdowns based on the excuse of ‘Look at New York’.

    If you are not New York, and your reporting does not match New York, then maybe New York isn’t your mentor. If your nation can statistically prove that under 50s are more likely to get eaten by a shark then die from Wuhan Virus then is becomes increasingly hard to justify why billions are being spent on emergency welfare when it would be significantly more productive to simply let the under 50s go back to work.

    CMoB himself have confessed lockdowns have been killing people. He offers no statistics and, in his defence, neither do I, but when does the risk to human life from lockdowns start to out rank the risk of Wuhan deaths?

    When is it going to end?

    What is the exit?

  18. For once Cook is telling the truth, though the effect of his graphic, as captioned, is not to correct misinformation but grossly to mislead.”

    Regarding the sadly little git that is John Cook, I ask one simple question, “When was his intent EVER not to mislead?” For telling half-truths is what the climate scam does in spades to hide behind the half the truth that misleads.

  19. Here is some good news.

    Tbe covid-19 death rate has been significantly lower than expected in India and other regions where the Bacillus Calmette Guerin vaccine has been used.

    It is believed that the lower death rate is due to the widespread use of the BCG vaccine in those regions.

    This BCG vaccine is a general vaccine trains the immune system to recognize and respond to a variety of infections, including viruses, bacteria and parasite.

    The BCG vaccine is now being tested in several countries including Australia, Germany and Netherlands against the new Coronavirus – to protect frontline health workers.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/ealth/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html

    • Mr Astley’s link to the New York Times report is most helpful. The advantage of a pre-existing vaccine is that clinical trials to ensure safety are not needed. Trials to ensure efficacy are a rather quicker and less problematic process. It would indeed be very welcome news if the trials confirmed that BCG is the way forward.

      • The stories about BCG have been circulating for about a month, Christopher.

        As far as I’m aware, everybody who went to school in the UK up until about 2005 was administered BCG (unless they showed prior exposure to tuberculosis which was assessed via a tuberculin challenge). So, most of the UK population over 30 years old, including most in their 70s, will have been vaccinated with BCG……but I don’t see any difference in the trends of the UK vs any other country (despite differences in BCG vaccination policy).

        • thinking similarly it was a childhood vax in Aus but unsure when stopped
          most dont seem to last overly long though so at best maybe a 20yr max?
          even tetanus does around 10 my whooping cough one wore off(or I wasnt around anyone to catch it) for 40+ yrs
          but when did get it, I got it good;-/

      • Humans have the robust immune system we have exactly because for countless millenia we lived in filth and fecal waste and unsanitary conditions. Modern life in much of the western world has removed that. That of course has huge positives, but there is also a darker side. Immunology now for 20 years has been grappling with this aspect and has termed it the Hygiene Hypothesis.

        BCG in India is just an indication of the wider bacterial and pathogen challenge burdens that occur in those countries along with rampant unsanitary conditions much the populations there face everyday. Our immune system needs continual challenge to maintain a regulatory set of T cells that helps work with the T cell effectors and other innate immune cells to restrain over aggressive responses.

        That is why in the the two California ER doctors (in the videos I posted this weekend) go to great lengths to talk about the real problems this lockdown will have on keeping people’s immunes systems challenged with commensal bacteria and other non-pathogenic viruses. Immunology and rheumatologists are fully embracing finally that the hygiene hypothesis is real. We saw that in the polio outbreak in the 1950’s in the US, the children of affluent families were much harder hit that rural communities dwelling children where they were likely exposed to polio at a much younger age.

    • I received my BCG vaccine injection at the British School of Brussels in 1981. I wonder if is still “active” in my immune system.

      • I caught malaria in Rawalpindi in 1956 when I was 7 and was probably given lots of the then available drugs. I wonder if that’s given me any immunity 🙂

      • The relatively short-lived efficacy of BCG for only 10–20 years appears accepted.38

        https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-cdi3001e.htm

        seems most of us in the older age groups got it at school up till the 80s in aus/ started in the 50s
        reading the article they state a second BCG isnt recommended even though you mightnt pass a reactivity test when challenged

        so the nurses theyre trialing it on might well be younger and not given it beforehand
        older ones however will have
        might also be interesting if we could find that out when they publish results..if they do

  20. CTVNews.ca has compiled a guide on where each province and territory stands in reopening their economies, what will be open and which restrictions will remain in place.
    https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/coronavirus/2020/4/27/1_4913652.amp.html#

    BRITISH COLUMBIA
    Current state: B.C.’s provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said April 22 that she wants to see “at least a couple of days” without any new COVID-19 cases before officials start easing restrictions.
    Henry said when that happens, one of the first steps — which could come as early as May — will be to allow elective surgeries to resume. Henry has also asked the restaurant industry to come up with ideas on how to partially reopen in coming weeks, provided they can ensure some level of physical distancing among guests.
    What’s open: Many businesses were never ordered to close during the pandemic, although some chose to of their own volition. Officials did not recommend the closure of outdoor recreation facilities including golf courses, parks or playgrounds but those that voluntarily closed are now allowed to open back up. B.C.’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, B.C. residents are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country must self-isolate for 14 days. Public transit services have been reduced.
    Remaining restrictions: B.C.’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.

    ALBERTA
    Current state: Alberta has not yet released plans to reopen its economy. Premier Jason Kenney said in a news conference that a committee will meet this week to discuss a relaunch strategy. However, the city of Lloydminster, which is located on the Alberta-Saskatchewan border, could end up being half-open within a few weeks if it follows Saskatchewan’s reopening plan. Lloydminster’s mayor said April 23 that the city is working with emergency preparedness officials to decide on how to proceed.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. Alberta’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, Albertans are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country must self-isolate for 14 days. Bus service between Calgary and Edmonton has been cancelled, but local public transit continues.
    Remaining restrictions: Alberta’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.

    SASKATCHEWAN
    Current state: The first phase of Saskatchewan’s reopening will begin May 4. Premier Scott Moe says the dates of the later phases will be determined through monitoring COVID-19 cases in the prior phases.
    What’s open: The first phase of the plan will reopen medical services such as dentists and optometrists and will allow low-risk outdoor recreational actives including fishing, boating, golf courses and campgrounds starting May 15. Retail stores and salon services will reopen on May 19.
    Can I travel?: No, Saskatchewan residents are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country must self-isolate for 14 days. As of yet, Saskatchewan has not imposed any domestic travel restrictions. The government does recommend that people self-monitor for symptoms if they have travelled outside of Saskatchewan, but within Canada.
    Regina and Saskatoon’s transit agencies are running under enhanced safety protocols.
    Remaining restrictions: There are some long-term restrictions that will remain in place including school closures, visitor restrictions at some health-care facilities, travel restrictions and mandatory self-isolation orders. Public and private gatherings will still be capped at a maximum of 10 people.

    MANITOBA
    Current state: Premier Brian Pallister said Manitoba will be releasing information on how it plans to reopen non-essential businesses in the province this week. Pallister did not provide a date for when the plan would be announced, but said he will be looking at Saskatchewan’s plan very closely.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. Manitoba’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, Manitobans are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country, province or territory must self-isolate for 14 days. The province has also established checkpoints at main highways and airports to provide guidance about COVID-19 to travellers. Travel to remote communities within the province is prohibited.
    Remaining restrictions: Manitoba’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.
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    Click on circles for more information.

    ONTARIO
    Current state: On April 27, the Ontario government unveiled its three-phase plan to reopen. It’s unclear which parts of the province will open first, and specific dates have not been included in the plan.
    The plan is laid out in a series of stages, which government officials said are necessary to ensure a return to normal is made safely. However, even after the reopening is completed, physical distancing measures will be continued.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. Ontario’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, Ontarians are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country must self-isolate for 14 days. As of yet, Ontario has not imposed any inter-provincial travel restrictions. Transit is still running within the province but on a reduced schedule.
    Remaining restrictions: Ontario’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect. Concerts and sporting events will be restricted for the foreseeable future.

    QUEBEC
    Current state: Quebec Premier Francois Legault announced April 27 that the province will begin reopening elementary schools and daycares on May 11, but only if the state of COVID-19 infections in hospitals remains stable. High schools, CEGEPs and universities in the province will not reopen until September, Legault said.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. Quebec’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, Quebecers are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country must self-isolate for 14 days. The Quebec government has placed checkpoints on the border between Ottawa and Gatineau to prevent non-essential travel into the province. Montreal public transit is running with physical distancing measures in place, but those with possible COVID-19 symptoms are asked not to ride.
    Remaining restrictions: Quebec’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.

    NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
    Current state: Newfoundland Premier Dwight Ball said in late April that it is not yet time for the province to reopen the economy, despite the province reporting no new case numbers or single-digit increases for the last nine days.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. Newfoundland and Labrador’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, Newfoundland and Labrador residents are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country, province or territory must self-isolate for 14 days. Public transit is running on reduced service and buses are limited to only nine passengers at a time.
    Remaining restrictions: Newfoundland and Labrador’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.

    NEW BRUNSWICK
    Current state: New Brunswick loosened some of its physical distancing measures April 24 after its seventh straight day with no new cases of COVID-19.
    What’s open: As part of the first stage, parks and beaches have been reopened, golf courses are back in business, universities and colleges can open parts of their campuses for students in certain circumstances, and religious services can be held again as long as they are outside with physical distancing measures in place. Households can also socialize again, but only with one other household.
    Can I travel?: No, New Brunswickers are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country, province or territory must self-isolate for 14 days. Local transit officials have warned against non-essential travel on their routes.
    Remaining restrictions: Large gatherings such as festivals and concerts are prohibited through Dec. 31, 2020, but that is subject to change. Restaurants remain closed except for delivery and takeout, and retail stores are closed as well.

    NOVA SCOTIA
    Current state: Dr. Robert Strang, Nova Scotia’s chief medical officer of health, said April 23 that there are no immediate plans to lift any COVID-19 restrictions. Strang said the province is currently working on a plan about the gradual lifting of restrictions to be discussed with the premier this week.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. Nova Scotia’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, Nova Scotians are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country, province or territory must self-isolate for 14 days. Public transit in Halifax is on reduced hours and ferries are restricting the number of passengers.
    Remaining restrictions: Nova Scotia’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.

    PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
    Current state: Officials announced in late April that Prince Edward Island is planning to ease some public health measures imposed amid the COVID-19 pandemic starting May 1.
    What’s open: The province’s chief public health officer, Dr. Heather Morrison, said easing the province back open will starting with some outdoor activities and elective surgeries.
    Can I travel?: No, Islanders are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the province. People entering from another country, province or territory must self-isolate for 14 days with the exception of essential service workers and flight crews. Public transportation is only recommended for commuting to work, medical appointments and shopping for essentials.
    Remaining restrictions: A ban on mass gatherings will be reviewed on an ongoing basis. Gatherings currently cannot be any larger than five people who are not members of the same household. All non-essential businesses remain closed.

    YUKON
    Current state: Yukon’s chief medical officer Dr. Brendan Hanley said April 24 that the process of developing a reopening plan for the territory is underway but won’t be available for several weeks.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. Yukon’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, Yukoners are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the territory. People entering from another country, province or territory by road or air must self-isolate for 14 days. Residents must have a detailed self-isolation plan.
    Remaining restrictions: Yukon’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.

    NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
    Current state: All five of the Northwest Territories’ coronavirus cases are now in recovery, but health officials say COVID-19 restrictions in the territory are expected to continue for at least another month.
    Dr. Kami Kandola, the N.W.T.’s chief public health officer, said on Wednesday that easing restrictions can only be considered after increasing testing by opening up the criteria for getting tested and making rapid testing more widely available.
    Once that happens, Kandola said she’ll allow campgrounds, parks and non-essential businesses to reopen. She said mass gatherings will be the last thing she allows to return.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. The N.W.T.’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, residents of the Northwest Territories are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the territory. People entering from another country or elsewhere in Canada must self-isolate for 14 days in Yellowknife, Inuvik, Hay River or Fort Smith. No N.W.T. resident is allowed to self-isolate in a small community. All travel into the territory is prohibited with the exception of those transporting essential goods and essential service workers.
    Remaining restrictions: The N.W.T.’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.

    NUNAVUT
    Current state: Nunavut has not announced any plans to reopen its economy. As of April 27, there were no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the territory.
    What’s open: All non-essential businesses remain closed. Nunavut’s essential services are listed here.
    Can I travel?: No, Nunavut residents are being urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside of the territory. Only Nunavut residents and critical workers are allowed into the territory. Residents who have been in the south must self-isolate at government-designated quarantine sites in Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa or Yellowknife before they are allowed to return.
    Remaining restrictions: Nunavut’s state of emergency public health orders remain in effect.

    • “Henry said when that happens, one of the first steps — which could come as early as May — will be to allow elective surgeries to resume.”

      In the beginning, when we didn’t know if the hospital system would be overwhelmed or not, this would have been prudent, but as soon as we saw the Wuhan virus case load lessen, the hospitals should have been allowed to resume normal operations.

      All hospitals, with maybe the exception of New York City, should be resuming normal operations now. It’s ridiculous to be laying off hospital workers because their normal business has been shut down unnecessarily. I’m sure this will be corrected in the very near future.

      My State of Oklahoma will open hospitals to regular business this Friday. My State really didn’t have to do this at all since we have about three times the hospital beds and other equipment that would have been needed had we had a large outbreak. As it was, we started out with two people who flew in from Italy infected with the Wuhan virus and ended up with 3280 cases as of today.

      Oklahoma has opened up quite a bit today. Traffic is heavy. Lots of people moving around. I did see a lot of people not wearing face masks, including clerks at Lowe’s, which should know better. We will see if any hotspots of infection pop up. I imagine they will and we will deal with them. This is all a big learning process. Eventually, we will figure out the best ways of doing things. We will all learn from each other’s experiences.

      People are antsy. I have a feeling people are going to push the envelope as much as possible with these reopenings, but I think most people will be smart about it. It’s in their self interest to be smart about it.

      Things are moving. That’s what we want.

    • Alan
      Do you have any insights on why Canada is doing so poorly on the death rate per capita? It appears to be exceeded only by Ireland, and only recently at that.

  21. The problem for me with so much of the media, and the reason so many stories in the media are wrong is that so many people in the media have no training in anything requiring Math. And at least half of them majored in English Lit.

    I took Engineering in university. (I didn’t graduate, but I did get to third year.) In Engineering, there are right answers. You have to write sentences and paragraphs in a complex code (Mathematical functions and operations) and the paragraphs must eventually coalesce into a correct answer, This process can be replicated by knowledgeable people all over the world, regardless of their culture or language. So my university training left me humble (because I wasn’t smart enough to finish my degree) but also arrogant, because I knew quite a bit about how to think analytically, and was aware that most people cannot sort relevant from irrelevant information, or put things in context.

    But an English major (like Prime Minster Trudeau) thinks he’s smart when he’s not. All you have to do to get a degree in English is find out which opinion your profs want to hear, and then write literate sentences presenting the opinion. You get two bad effects: the inability to distinguish prevailing opinion from fact, and also a supine obedience to whoever has the most authority. The study of English also corrupts you on a personal level, because you might have to pretend you have feelings that you really don’t. (There can’t be that many people who really do enjoy Joyce’s Ulysses, surely.) There is also the strange irrationality involved in speaking of characters in Bronte novels (none of which I’ve read) as if they were real people.

    So much of the coverage of the coronavirus pandemic has no logic to it. Why are we even counting new cases, when nothing much can be learned from those numbers in the absence of how knowledge can be extrapolated from them to general population. What we need is a large random test from which we can calculate the real infection rate in any given population. Only then can we calculate the true mortality of the disease. Why were authorities deliberately downplaying the advanced ages of the dead, as if the deaths of the elderly were the same as the deaths of the young?

    • Ian are you able to plot this Table? Insert it in a spreadsheet and chart the table.
      I look at the ratio of positives as a proportion of those tested as relatively stable across the entire period when I am being told the virus is virulent and spreading.
      Hopefully, you can use your mathematics and tell me I am seeing things!

      The source of the Data is tabulated from the Daily report from The University of Washington Virology.

      https://depts.washington.edu/labmed/covid19/

      Date Negative Inconclusive Positive Accum_Pos Tests %Positive
      02/03/20 30.0 0 1 1 31 3.2
      03/03/20 4.0 0 2 3 6 33.3
      04/03/20 202.0 4 7 10 213 3.3
      05/03/20 125.0 3 0 10 128 0.0
      06/03/20 187.0 2 16 26 205 7.8
      07/03/20 220.0 4 14 40 238 5.9
      08/03/20 466.0 15 79 119 560 14.1
      09/03/20 380.0 5 40 159 425 9.4
      10/03/20 721.0 4 46 205 771 6.0
      11/03/20 1113.0 9 91 296 1213 7.5
      12/03/20 1171.0 11 82 378 1264 6.5
      13/03/20 1361.0 8 95 473 1464 6.5
      14/03/20 1529.0 20 96 569 1645 5.8
      15/03/20 1643.0 9 94 663 1746 5.4
      16/03/20 1487.0 8 135 798 1630 8.3
      17/03/20 2134.0 14 170 968 2318 7.3
      18/03/20 2857.0 31 183 1151 3071 6.0
      19/03/20 2071.0 26 138 1289 2235 6.2
      20/03/20 2754.0 19 193 1482 2966 6.5
      21/03/20 1440.0 14 114 1596 1568 7.3
      22/03/20 942.0 8 94 1690 1044 9.0
      23/03/20 987.0 7 152 1842 1146 13.3
      24/03/20 1257 10 141 1983 1408 10.0
      25/03/20 1755 19 192 2175 1966 9.8
      26/03/20 2406 21 244 2419 2671 9.1
      27/03/20 2115.0 24 244 2663 2383 10.2
      28/03/20 2078.0 33 340 3003 2451 13.9
      29/03/20 1256.0 14 204 3207 1474 13.8
      30/03/20 1046.0 12 166 3373 1224 13.6
      31/03/20 2073.0 23 362 3735 2458 14.7
      01/04/20 2349.0 23 317 4052 2689 11.8
      02/04/20 1907.0 17 235 4287 2159 10.9
      03/04/20 1982.0 19 295 4582 2296 12.8
      04/04/20 1750.0 18 215 4797 1983 10.8
      05/04/20 1151.0 8 111 4908 1270 8.7
      06/04/20 1256.0 13 170 5078 1439 11.8
      07/04/20 1733.0 12 212 5290 1957 10.8
      08/04/20 2626.0 43 307 5597 2976 10.3
      09/04/20 2061.0 16 199 5796 2276 8.7
      10/04/20 1753.0 6 199 5995 1958 10.2
      11/04/20 1510.0 1 154 6149 1665 9.2
      12/04/20 744.0 1 87 6236 832 10.5
      13/04/20 877.0 6 123 6359 1006 12.2
      14/04/20 1732.0 5 156 6515 1893 8.2
      15/04/20 1620.0 7 159 6674 1786 8.9
      16/04/20 1555.0 11 200 6874 1766 11.3
      17/04/20 1362.0 11 116 6990 1489 7.8
      18/04/20 994.0 6 87 7077 1087 8.0
      19/04/20 801.0 3 101 7178 905 11.2
      20/04/20 1246.0 2 94 7272 1342 7.0
      21/04/20 1436.0 12 134 7406 1582 8.5
      22/04/20 1386.0 8 100 7506 1494 6.7
      23/04/20 1274.0 15 99 7605 1388 7.1
      24/04/20 1380.0 6 103 7708 1489 6.9
      25/04/20 981.0 1 54 7762 1036 5.2
      26/04/20 1048.0 7 113 7875 1168 9.7

    • Clearly the US numbers are wrong it includes Afro Americans and Latin Americans who just happen to be resident in the US 🙂

    • “Why are we even counting new cases, when nothing much can be learned from those numbers in the absence of how knowledge can be extrapolated from them to general population. What we need is a large random test from which we can calculate the real infection rate in any given population. Only then can we calculate the true mortality of the disease. Why were authorities deliberately downplaying the advanced ages of the dead, as if the deaths of the elderly were the same as the deaths of the young?

      Why count?

      1. You count to see if your hospital burden will go up or down.
      2. you count to see if your actions are having any impact whatsoever.
      So in Korea, they counted to see if they had to impose tougher measures. When the Count
      of imported cases went up, they changed rules at the airport, for example.

      “What we need is a large random test from which we can calculate the real infection rate in any given population. ”

      well, the bio engineers are working on it. Some have better tests than others. you don’t want to
      use a faulty test as an engineer do you now? if you have 20% false positives and 10% false negatives
      that makes it a little tough. Anyway Bioengineers are on the job.

      random sample? Random with respect to what? Random age? random race? random occupation?
      mass transit takers? people who live alone? house dwellers? apartment dwellers? men? women?
      how about smokers? people with bad immune systems?

      People say random without really thinking through what they mean. For example, if highly social
      people are more likely to get the disease ( many daily contacts) do you want to make sure your
      sampling represents them fairly? In short, unless you know the disease attacks everyone equally
      then constructing a truly random sample is hard.

      Large? How large? well how large depends on how accurate you want to be and depends on the
      disease rate which you don’t know exactly. you know math, calculate the required sample size

      How much time do you have? and how long does it take to process all the tests.

      In the end what will you learn?

      Well, you will have a BETTER ESTIMATE of the death rate. Which itself will be subject to a bunch of uncertainty. Age, pre conditions, standard of care, etc. and it will just be an estimate.

      Here is the clue. Lowering the death rate won’t change politician’s minds now.
      because now every death that happens will land squarely on the politicians doorstep
      regardless of whether it’s 1 or 1 million.

      There is not a politician alive who will do a calculus of death and say oh 1000 deaths is not that
      bad. They will say every life matters and we have to preserve life at all costs. they will do that
      while they ignore the obvious about this hitting the older harder and men harder.

      This is why Engineers don’t run the world.

      A) they hate bad data and uncertainty
      B) they love perfection and enjoy polishing the bowling ball
      C) life to them is just a number.
      D) they won’t answer questions that don’t have answers in the back of the book

      ( not really, but some think that way)

      • Luckily I was a control chemist, not an engineer, with an interest in the works of Orwell, Rand, Elton , Delingpole, Ralston-Saul etc: I have read John L Daly’s “The Greenhouse Trap” and followed his fight with with the bureaucracy over the tide mark at Deadman’s Island. I have enjoyed Stephen McIntyre’s ‘Starbuck Hypothesis’.
        When the emotional argument has been presented, you look for steady reliable data sampled at the same point and tested with a standard procedure.
        The data I am seeing shows a standard rate of those presenting of about 10%. Well within the historical parameters for other Flu-like results from previous years from Washington State. These figures are about to be washed away by a swath of new tests, the reporting of which will create panic of a new wave of infection.
        The truth is the real infection has been the infection of the Democratic system with career Politicians. These people are unable to make any decision let alone a difficult one, particularly when faced with the might of a united world bureaucracy fighting for their funding base with the Hotel Owner from New York / Florida/ Russia.

  22. Mr Astley’s link to the New York Times report is most helpful. The advantage of a pre-existing vaccine is that clinical trials to ensure safety are not needed. Trials to ensure efficacy are a rather quicker and less problematic process. It would indeed be very welcome news if the trials confirmed that BCG is the way forward.

  23. A link to an interesting PDF. Still at the source so have only glanced over it quickly.

    chrome-extension://mhjfbmdgcfjbbpaeojofohoefgiehjai/index.html

      • I agree that the test rate is surprising. In the UK we see the following reported as of yesterday:

        Tests people positive deaths
        Daily 37,024 26,355 4,310 360
        Total 719,910 569,768 157,149 21,092

        Some people, particularly health service people, are tested more than once. What this shows is that about 21% of those tested are positive.

        These are all hospital tests.

        To get tested at all you in the UK, until a few days ago, you had to be in effect diagnosed positive by a physician. Your initial contact either with emergency services or your physician will result in your presenting at hospital, and the hospital will then decide that you merit testing and will do it.

        So it is very curious that with such apparently quite rigorous screening procedures prior to testing, the number confirmed positive is such a low percentage of those being tested. They are, after all, only testing those who are thought by competent medical staff to be probably infected.

        I’m at a loss to explain this – and it will probably get worse in the coming weeks, because testing is being done on an increased scale and of people who are less, if at all, screened in advance.

        In the link you offer much lower percentages of successful testing still. Don’t know where these come from, and these sections need updating.

        • All in the footnotes. Or is it some other particular anomaly not covered? Plus it is being regularly updated so perhaps any information you are looking for should show up when available.

      • This is indeed an interesting article, David, and it looks very similar to how HIV was handled back in the 80s. That never satisfied Koch’s postulates either, and the AIDS epidemic consequently also looks a lot more like a combination of non-infectious environmental assaults on people’s immune systems, mistreatment by doctors, and a lot of badly validated testing, than an inevitable consequence of a sexually transmitted retrovirus.

    • The pdf is not interesting it is just ignorant.

      Just reading the summary and seeing the guy demanding tests and basing his suspicion on their absence where all of these tests he is demanding have been done already. Multiple times.

      Viral particles have been isolated, their RNA matches the ones from the PCR tests, these particles can infect human cells in vitro and replicate and we have electron microscopy pictures from this virus which is btw the method how corona viruses first were described and classified and how you still could validate their existence in patients.

      Then he confuses the problem for false positives which is indeed one for antibody tests to a problem for PCR-based tests where there is none if the test was carefully designed and in reality false negatives from badly collected samples and detection treshold are the real problem. Plus he obviously doesn’t have any idea how PCR results are analyzed and validated.

  24. I enjoy reading Lord Monckton’s views and analysis of the world’s mass hysteria and how we need to respond to the latest madness that has overtaken an otherwise mostly stable world.
    The only wish I have, is that we could embrace herd immunity with the same urgency that was pushed by the international political class, to achieve herd insanity.
    It is easy to be clever after the facts are in, but some of us have been saying from the outset of this Sars Cov 2 crisis, the decision to stop wealth creation globally, just to maintain the life of those already knocking on deaths door by a few weeks or months seemed economically insane.
    The world authority forum i.e. the UN was itself initially a good idea but has now evolved into a dangerous concept of questionable legitimacy.
    Looking to such an organisation (through its agent the WHO), for guidance in this instance is a strange appeal to misguided authority, no one should be advocating.
    Pan world threats require pan world actions, I get that. I also believe it is wise for world leaders to share their best individual scientific advisers views, one with another in forums such as the UN.
    Where it goes wrong is the urge for the wise international council to tell everyone what they must do. That advice then becomes the bench mark, that nations feel obliged to follow or risk alienation.
    Sadly and inevitably, the centralisation of advice by the WHO becomes ever more remote from the activities being considered, yet national leaders look to these bureaucrats for guidance on their own local matters?
    This homogenisation of the world response, is a very dangerous progression towards a permanent totalitarian control mechanism.
    Collective agreements to act in the best interests of the global community is what we need to achieve, and yes, bureaucracy is naturally involved in that.
    What we don’t need and must not accept, is unauthorised global instruction from political place-men and women, occupying lofty positions in pan world organisations, simply seeking to further their authority.
    We need to be very cautious.
    We need to rediscover our own national sense of responsibility and authority to act, that addresses our local needs.
    We need to quickly establish the background herd condition via random sampling of the population. We need to know how wide spread this Covid 19 actually is, and we need the antibody test to do it.
    We still do not have a reliable test!!

    • Rod : you write
      -“Collective agreements to act in the best interests of the global community is what we need to achieve, and yes, bureaucracy is naturally involved in that.”-
      I was beginning to think similarly in that one lesson from this emergency is that some scientific work is so potentially hazardous that it should only be conducted under conditions that have been globally agreed by the world’s best experts.
      My analogy is the H Bomb testing in the atmosphere in the 50s and 60s. Apart from demonstrations of national military might they were, effectively , experiments. However they resulted in a growing cloud of radioactive pollution that affected everyone , everywhere, just like the leaking of the SARS -COV2 virus has done. It eventually led to a globally agreed test ban treaty , with monitoring , that stopped all atmospheric tests. No – one today would consider atmospheric tests of nuclear bombs.
      A similar protocol established for virological and bacteriological experiments could surely reduce the likelihood of a recurrence of this current pandemic .

  25. 10 times more contagious and 10 times more deadly than common flu. I guess that means that there would be 100 times more deaths than in a normal flu season.
    I won’t argue about how long ‘China knew’. In fact, the longer they knew makes it curioser and curioser about some things. There was a delay in the West’s response for various reasons.
    I will now move on to the curious part. For a period of months after the initial outbreak, it was business as usual as far as transport of humans in all countries was concerned. In China, there are millions of people (sorry, hundreds of millions) in public transport every single day. They are cheek to jowl in many instances. Thousands travelled from one province to another, daily. It didn’t really matter what time of year. It just happened to be crazier at various times of the year- special festivals, spring festival. Every surface you touch would have been touched by others. You would have been breathed upon. In effect you would have been in contact with thousands of people, indirectly. Airports internationally would be the same.
    Why are there so few(relatively speaking) cases of this highly contagious (10 times) virus? Based on international and local travel there would have been at least a billion connections between people?
    How do you determine whether something is 10 times more contagious than normal flu? How do you determine that covid -19 is 10 times more deadly? Is there some lab experiment? Is it an opinion based on who knows what?
    Just curious.

    • Alex
      I have asked MoB essentially the same question about his 10X claims. In the past, he has avoided answering hard ball questions. Let’s see if he responds to our concerns.

      • Should be in multiples of pi. Much more scientific-sounding. 10 times is something a kid would say.

  26. You can outsmart the virus by giving you drugs that work the opposite way.
    By attaching to the ACE2 enzyme, the Cov-2 virus inactivates it.
    Thus, the ACE2 enzyme that dilates the blood vessels stops working. This is the greatest malignancy of the Cov-2 virus.
    The narrowing of blood vessels in the lungs is the cause of widespread pneumonia in Covid-19 disease. Even in asymptomatic people, lung fibrosis is observed.
    Recombinant human ACE2 (rhACE2) is surmised to be a novel therapy for acute lung injury, and appeared to improve pulmonary hemodynamics[clarification needed] and oxygen saturation in piglets with a lipopolysaccharide-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome.[43] The half-life of rhACE2 in human beings is about 10 hours and the onset of action is 30 minutes in addition to the course of effect (duration) of 24 hours.[43] Several findings suggest that rhACE2 may be a promising drug for those with intolerance to classic renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RAS inhibitors) or in diseases where circulating angiotensin II is elevated.[43]

    Infused rhACE2 has been evaluated in clinical trials for the treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome.[44]
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2?fbclid=IwAR1lcxfEnh4x32AOdGv2qNGrmFc3WJN4Wd-0MAbGZtvWQktZRfeDfrCvvLk

    • Because of such insidious Cov-2 activity, you can’t count on herd immunity, because even young people can have permanent lung damage.

    • Abstract
      Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), discovered as a homologue of ACE, acts as its physiological counterbalance providing homeostatic regulation of circulating angiotensin II (Ang II) levels. ACE2 is a zinc metalloenzyme and carboxypeptidase located as an ectoenzyme on the surface of endothelial and other cells. While its primary substrate appears to be Ang II, it can hydrolyze a number of other physiological substrates. Additionally, ACE2 functions in other noncatalytic cellular roles including the regulation of intestinal neutral amino acid transport. It also serendipitously acts as the receptor for the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus. Upregulation of ACE2 expression and function is increasingly recognized as a potential therapeutic strategy in hypertension and cardiovascular disease, diabetes, lung injury, and fibrotic disorders. ACE2 is regulated at multiple levels including transcriptional, posttranscriptional (miRNA and epigenetic), and posttranslational through its shedding from the cell surface.
      https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128013649000250

      • “In summary, ACE2 is a multifunctional protein in health and disease, which serves as a counterregulatory component of the RAS functioning in a cardioprotective role. Hence, its transcriptional upregulation, activation of its catalytic activity, or administration of the recombinant protein47 could well provide new strategies in hypertension and heart failure. Additionally, ACE2 modulation (and hence alteration of the circulating Ang II/Ang-(1-7) balance) may have relevance to diabetes, acute lung injury and fibrotic disease, and even dystrophic muscular conditions.48 But much still remains to be explored in terms of the basic aspects of ACE2 cellular function and its regulation to be able to exploit these opportunities effectively and safely.”

    • Human recombinant ACE2 (rhACE2)
      Preclinical studies have demonstrated that recombinant human ACE2 (rhACE2) has a half-life of ~ 8.5 h in mice (Wysocki et al., 2010) and that rhACE2 exerts beneficial effects in murine models of cardiac hypertrophy, myocardial fibrosis and cardiac dysfunction (Zhong et al., 2010). Furthermore, in male mice, rhACE2 was able to prevent angiotensin II-induced hypertension (Wysocki et al., 2010). This effect was primarily attributed to circulating ACE2 activity and the lowering of plasma angiotensin II rather than the associated increase in plasma angiotensin-(1–7) (Wysocki et al., 2010). Furthermore, in a model of diabetic nephropathy, rhACE2 reduced tubulointerstitial fibrosis and albuminuria and normalized blood pressure (Oudit et al., 2010). Aside from its effects in cardiovascular and renal diseases, rhACE2 may be a novel therapy for acute lung injury. ACE2 deficient mice develop severe lung injury, which is ameliorated by treatment with rhACE2 (Gu et al., 2016). Similarly, systemic administration of rhACE2 improved pulmonary hemodynamics and oxygenation in a lipopolysaccharide-induced model of acute respiratory distress syndrome in piglets (Treml et al., 2010).

      In 2013, the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics characteristics of rhACE2 were first described in healthy men and women (Haschke et al., 2013). The half-life of rhACE2 was ~ 10 h and in both men and women, rhACE2 reduced plasma angiotensin II and increased plasma angiotensin-(1–7) (Haschke et al., 2013). This effect was apparent within 30 min of administration of rhACE2 and persisted for 24 h. Moreover, these effects were mediated without alterations in blood pressure or heart rate (Haschke et al., 2013). However, it is important to note that this study was not powered to detect acute differences in physiology, rather, it was a proof of principle study. In 2017, a second clinical study with rhACE2 was reported in patients with acute pulmonary injury (Khan et al., 2017). In this study, rhACE2 favorably altered the circulating RAS profile, reducing plasma angiotensin II and increasing angiotensin-(1–7) levels. However, rhACE2 did not improve physiological or clinical measures of acute respiratory distress syndrome. Consistent with the in vivo data, ex vivo treatment with rhACE2 effectively reduced angiotensin II levels and increased angiotensin-(1–9) and angiotensin-(1–7) levels in plasma and cardiac tissue samples collected from heart failure patients (Basu et al., 2017). Collectively, these findings suggest that rhACE2 may be a promising drug for treatment of patients with intolerance to classical RAS inhibitors or in diseases where circulating angiotensin II is elevated.

      Mas receptor agonists
      Angiotensin-(1–7) has a short plasma half-life and is rapidly degraded in the gastrointestinal tract when given orally. The combination of hydroxylpropyl-β-cyclodextrin (HPβCD) with angiotensin-(1–7) (HPβCD/angiotensin-(1–7)) protects angiotensin-(1–7) from enzymatic degradation allowing angiotensin-(1–7) to be administered orally. Chronic oral administration of HPβCD/angiotensin-(1–7) lowered blood pressure and reduced markers of fibrosis (TGFβ1 and collagen type I) in rats following ischemia–reperfusion injury (Marques et al., 2012). Moreover, HPβCD/angiotensin-(1–7) has been shown to have antiinflammatory effects in a model of atherosclerosis (Fraga-Silva et al., 2014), and improved insulin sensitivity in a model of type 2 diabetes (Santos et al., 2014). In humans, the HPβCD/angiotensin-(1–7) formulation allows the absorption of angiotensin-(1–7), and is safe and well-tolerated. Future clinical trials are now needed with HPβCD/angiotensin-(1–7) to determine its efficacy as a novel treatment for cardiovascular and renal diseases.
      https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/biochemistry-genetics-and-molecular-biology/angiotensin-converting-enzyme-2

    • “Even in asymptomatic people, lung fibrosis is observed.”

      The Wuhan virus is not just another flu virus. It seems to do damage to the human body even if you don’t have symptoms, so the question is does Wuhan virus do permanent damage to your body even though you get over the disease?

      • Due to the regulating function of ACE2, its reduction leads to damage throughout the human body, which may be irreversible. It is enough to realize that the factor that causes panic in the body (angiotensin II) has no brake.

        • How long does the Wuhan virus remain inside an asymptomatic person?

          My guess is the longer the virus is inside you, the more damage it is doing. Or is there a difference in the level of damage it is doing in an asymptomatic stage? I know asymptomatic people don’t show any upper respiratory problems at all, so apparently little or no damage is occurring there in this case, but what about the other organs and blood vessels in the body? What is happening to them?

          It looks like a scary virus. You may not want to get this whether you get over it or not. You may not get over it even if you have gotten over it. It might have longterm detrimental health effects.

          China’s leadership has a lot to answer for.

  27. Hokkaido’s second spike

    By April 9—exactly three weeks after Hokkaido’s first lockdown was lifted—there was a record number of new cases: 18 in one day. “Officials thought about people coming from overseas but never considered that domestic migration could bring the virus back,” said Hironori Sasada, professor of Japanese politics at Hokkaido University.

    On April 14, Hokkaido announced a state of emergency for a second time. The island had 279 reported cases, an increase of about 80% from when the governor lifted the first lockdown less than a month before. As of 27 April, there are 495 cases in Hokkaido. That’s out of a population of 5.3 million.

    If the Japanese think that wrecking their social life and their economy because 0.0093755859741234% of them have the virus, then that is their decision.

    Talk about overreaction.

    • Japan has a lot of hospital beds but a low number of ICUs, ventilators and ECMOs for its population. Therefore they have to be very careful to not overload those.

      And they are not testing vigorously so you could expect their reported cases are mainly the more serious/critical ones.

        • I was implying that Japan’s numbers are mainly those that need hospitalization so even seamingly “low” numbers could prove difficult for the health care system.

          Japan has 7 ICU beds per 100,000 so only 371 for Hokkaido.

          Numbers make only sense when you know what to compare them to.

  28. Douglas Altman, who has died in 2018 (aged 69), waged a long-running campaign to improve the use of statistics in medical research.

    A professor of statistics in medicine at the University of Oxford, in 1998 Altman described the problem as follows: “The majority of statistical analyses are performed by people with an inadequate understanding of statistical methods. They are then peer reviewed by people who are generally no more knowledgeable. Sadly, much research may benefit researchers rather more than patients, especially when it is carried out primarily as a ridiculous career necessity.” (My emphasis)

    Sadly, this problem persists and has perhaps gotten worse. I do not even want to contemplate the consequences for the next ten to twenty years.

  29. Christopher, I agree with you that measures are working. Some weeks ago I wrote you about positive impact of wearing face masks in Slovakia as first country in Europe and America which started to wear face masks. From this time nothing changed. Together with mild voluntary moving restrictions, measures in shops and closed human contact businesses, it was possible to push R0 of Covid-19 under 1.
    Plus mass testing in risky communities, like gypsy settlements and retirement homes.
    Thorough searching and testing contacts of Covid-19 positives, quarantining of them either in state or at home quarantine.
    Mandatory 14 days quarantine of all people crossing borders, state quarantine till test result, if negative rest of quarantine at home.
    Hospital staff testing and immediate quarantine if positive of all contacts.
    Result is that last 4 days we had 14, 6, 2 and today 3 new positive cases of Covid-19.
    If this trend will continue, it is possible to eradicate Covid-19 at all.
    Similar trend with delay is visible in neighboring countries Czechia, Poland, Austria, Hungary, Latvia, Estonia, Croatia.
    When they eradicate virus, borders will fully reopen. This will create cluster of countries with eradicated virus, where economy will be free to grow again.
    Other more affected countries like Germany, Italy, Spain, France will have no other choice just eradicate virus too to join club of virus free countries.
    Countries which propagated herd immunity will be the most affected and will join this club as last.
    But good message is that we will all get there finally. It is possible for country get rid of Coronavirus in 2 months with decent measures, testing, tracking of positives and mandatory face masks.
    On the other side it seams that it is practically impossible to get herd immunity for Covid-19, because of short term immunity. It is impossible to immunize whole population fast enough, because hospitals overload and slow immunization is not possible due to short term immunity.
    There is one rule for this virus, not adequate or lack of measures on start are bringing more serious measures later to compensate.

  30. “And, now that the population are thoroughly educated in the dangers posed by the virus, let the old and the sick take whatever precautions they deem appropriate to avoid catching the virus. Since the initial data suggest that “herd immunity” may not be possible with this virus, the period of immunity in some cases having proven to be very short, there is no advantage in keeping anyone under indefinite house arrest. Let people decide for themselves how much risk they are willing to take.”

    If immunity is short lived then the only way the virus will burn out is to let it off the leash – thankfully it is highly infectious.

    Lockdowns are the worst possible strategy, trash the economy AND enter a groundhog day of flatten the curve and surge the curve.

  31. “The one piece of good news that the advocates of continuing lockdowns have undervalued is the fact that those who are fit and under 60 are not at all likely to die of the virus. Now that it is known that more than nine-tenths of all deaths from the virus are in those over 60, particularly with comorbidities, it is legitimate to argue that for the vast majority of the population the virus will indeed be no worse than the flu.”

    Well it took you time, some of us has mentioned that a looooong time ago… That is why lockdown was not necessary !

    • People who are infected with coronavirus may never regain full health if they have pulmonary fibrosis. I feel sorry for athletes and divers who may never return to their profession.

    • Lockdowns were necessary in countries with high population densities to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed.

  32. “The one piece of good news that the advocates of continuing lockdowns have undervalued is the fact that those who are fit and under 60 are not at all likely to die of the virus. Now that it is known that more than nine-tenths of all deaths from the virus are in those over 60, particularly with comorbidities, it is legitimate to argue that for the vast majority of the population the virus will indeed be no worse than the flu.”

    I disagree. The numbers are clearly indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is taken a death toll from the people <65y which is unprecedented from any other flu year (especially in the UK) and even people in their 20's, 30's and 40's have to be hospitalized and would therefore clog emergency rooms and ICUs if the virus is allowed to spread freely. As Spain, France and Italy told us.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

    • You seem to be misreading the graphs Ron.

      the 15-65y graph does show a higher peak but in weekly deaths but it is total excess deaths : ie the area under the peak which you need to look at to make the “death toll” conclusion you are seeking.

      By eye, I would estimate the current peak is on a par with 2017 and less than the extended peak of 2018.

      ” it is legitimate to argue that for the vast majority of the population the virus will indeed be no worse than the flu.”

      I disagree. The numbers are clearly indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is taken a death toll from the people <65y which is unprecedented

      What you say does not contradict the statement you are trying to contradict.

      The vast majority of the working population should be back at work now. Yet many govts are still running round in circles wondering how they can get out of the mess they have created.

      • My apologize, but you make assumptions that are invalid.

        The graph from cumulated deaths is giving you 11,324 excess deaths until week 16 for this year and 12,697 total for 2018. To back up your claim deaths by COVID-19 have to stop nearly immediately to not reach this number. But the pandemic is still on and not over. The number is probably already higher as reported deaths can be lag by three weeks.

        The Z-score peak for 15-65y is double as it ever was and it is foolish to think it would decrease immediately and not with a slope.

        At last, you are ignoring my point that younger people also need to get hospitalized in an unprecedented rate although they are usually surviving if treated accordingly. If you clog your emergency rooms with those people as well you have to do triage like it happened in Italy, Spain and France.

        But let’s just do some numbers:

        You need 70% for herd immunity.

        From New York State numbers the ages 20-50y make up 5.5% of deaths.

        CFR from Iceland, Taiwan and South Korea is at least 1% and that is also the newest upper projection for Europe as more data comes in. Prof. Woo-Joo Kim even estimates 2-4% but let’s just hope he is wrong (though he was right about most things so far…).

        So the death rate for this specific group would be 0.00055%.

        From 308 million Americans ~40% are 20-50y.

        308 x 0.4 x 0.7 x 0.00055 makes 47,432 deaths.

        I don’t think so many people <50y die from the flu annually.

        • Thanks Ron, I did not know what graphs you were referring to. 15-65 week graph shows it is down close to annual average now, so cumulative total will not go much higher. Cumulative total for that group shows it is just past 2018 level.

          The presentation of annual totals is not that helpful. It cuts the flu epidemics in half . We can see that end of 2018 was a weak flu season and does not make up for the strong end to 2017.

          If you click 2017 into the cumulative graph you see that 2017 (15-65 )ends up the same as 2020 currently is ( as I noted it is now back to near normal death rates ).

          So bottom line is that I was not far wrong with my earlier statements.

          • “15-65 week graph shows it is down close to annual average now, so cumulative total will not go much higher. Cumulative total for that group shows it is just past 2018 level.”

            Let’s just wait and see but I disagree that the number will stay like this.
            Reported deaths are often delayed and deaths are way more likely to increase in an pandemic. Especially as their forecast and adjustments for delayed reported cases are based on previous data but previous data didn’t include a pandemic.

            “The presentation of annual totals is not that helpful. It cuts the flu epidemics in half . We can see that end of 2018 was a weak flu season and does not make up for the strong end to 2017.”

            Are we really looking at the same graphs? 🙂

            But anyway, one can estimate the excess death cases from the 2017 part of the 2017/18 from the cumulated death numbers from week 48 in 2017 on until week 16 of 2018 which is ~25,000 + ~114,000 hence ~139,000 for flu season 2017/2018.

            2020 is already above with 140,000 (seems to be have been updated recently). And it took just 7 weeks to get where the flu season 2017/18 lasted 23 weeks.

    • The 15-65 category is a deceitful metric that is heavily weighted towards the 65 end. I bet 80-90% is between 55-65.

      • Crude estimate from the numbers available is ~67% but that doesn’t address the fact that those people usually DON’T DIE WITH THESE NUMBERS AT ALL!

        And it doesn’t change my calculation above that you can estimate 47,432 deaths of people <50y if you go down the path to herd immunity given that it will work at all.

        • Those people usually don’t die because they usually aren’t put on ventilators that end up ki!lling them like they are now. Policies have changed to forbid less harmful ventilation methods because of fear of infection.

          • Those people don’t have to get into intensive care at all without SARS-CoV-2 to begin with. You are evading the argument.

          • Before (with flu or something else) they would receive CPAP or HFNC or something less deadly than intubation (unless they had chronic lung injury). Now (with covid) they are all sent to ICU and tubed because doctors and hospital policy makers don’t want higher risk of hospital staff infection via aerosolization. It’s all fear driven.

            Yesterday, an ED doc says “if they don’t do well with 6 liters by NC, we tube them. Not risking exposing staff to aerosolization with higher flow O2.” oy…

            https://twitter.com/signaturedoc/status/1250072724057264128

            Hospital policy has changed forbidding use of less harmful ventilation. Patient mortality goes up as a result.

  33. Just a thought. . . over the Easter weekend much was made of a large number (around 1000?) of parties going on in Manchester. Having achieved the desired effect of making us all wag our morally-outraged finger at the stupidity, no further mention has been made of it. So how many attended these parties? Were they tracked thereafter? Was there a spike in hospital admissions in the area a few days later? Have such new cases been interviewed to see if they attended (or have been in contact with attendees)? Is there any evidence that this has begun to filter into the morbidity figures (in Manchester)? Would this not be useful additional information?
    But the news cycle thunders on and the Easter ‘outrage’ is forgotten. And the more it thunders the less we learn.
    Like others, I would question both the morbidity attribution statistics and the CT-PCR test’s efficacy, leaving us with many questions still to answer. Surely events like this might give a clue as to the effects if easing lockdown.
    Anybody here know any more about this?

    • Yes, it would be interesting to get data from Manchester. I have no idea if that exists or is available.

      What we do have is Italy’s mild unlock ( kids clothing stores, bookshops and other small commerce )
      https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-weekly-projection-italy-3.png

      It does seem to have disrupted the surprisingly stable weekly cycle which existed during total confinement but there is no net up or downward movement in the rate of change in daily cases which remains in slow decline over the week.

      We should be keeping a close eye on Italy and Spain as they unlock and acting quickly ourselves.

      • Yes, it would be interesting to get data from Manchester. I have no idea if that exists or is available.

        This site provides links to CSV data files (below map) which might help

        https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#local-authorities

        The format of the files is a bit of a pain but if you sort by Area Name you should be able to collect Manchester & e.g. Trafford data and make comparisons. If there is a spike from Easter it should start to become evident about now (i.e 2 weeks). I suspect it will be difficult to detect.

        • Cheers, will keep an eye on that. However, not so useful, as no. of cases depends on amount of testing (unknown) and efficiency of the test (unknown). Also, cumulative cases wont show the progression over time. I couldnt see any spike on the gov. graph for the NW, but again thats something of a blunt instrument. That seems to have been a recurrent problem – we have no idea how good the data are. I suspect not very. . .

  34. Sweden says its “no-lockdown” strategy is successful

    Sweden’s decision not to lock down its economy – allowing the coronavirus to run its course while the population reaches herd immunity is working, according to the Scandinavian nation’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. He predicted herd immunity, when about 60% of a population is immune, will be reached in the capital, Stockholm, within two to three weeks.

    Government officials have encouraged social distancing, banning gatherings of more than 50, and urge people over 70 or in a high-risk group to stay home but they have not forced businesses, restaurants and schools to close, arguing people can be trusted to follow guidelines: “In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC.

    Sweden’s number of deaths is higher than in other Nordic countries, with 16,700 cases and more than 2,000 deaths in a population of about 10 million. Denmark, with a population of 6 million, has reported about 8,000 cases and 394 deaths. Among Norway’s 5 million people, 7,400 cases and 194 deaths have been counted. Tegnell said the health system “has been able to cope.” He also said that about 15 to 20% of people in Stockholm have reached a level of immunity that would “slow down the spread” of a second wave of the virus.

    Swedish resident Johan Norberg, a senior fellow at the CATO Institute, argued in a Fox News interview that the total lockdown approach of most nations aimed at “flattening the curve” only postpones the deaths. The lockdown nations, including the US, “won’t avoid them because there is still no argument that has been made that suddenly this disease will go away after their lockdowns are over.” Ingraham played a clip from a web interview with Swedish epidemiologist Johan Giesecke who said: “Some countries do this and some countries do that, and some countries don’t do that, and in the end there will be very little difference.”

    Norberg said it could take several years to develop a vaccine “And no society can be shut down completely and shut down the economy for more than a year without ruining society and the economy entirely. And that will kill many more people than the virus does. Sweden will get through this while protecting the vulnerable and the health care system. Can we manage to mitigate the disease? We can’t suppress it. Can we mitigate it to the extent that we can take care of all cases and make sure that they get the best treatment? Well, in that case Sweden might be through this in a couple of months while you (the “lockdown” countries) have it ahead of you.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

    • It looks that immunity for this virus lasts around 3 to 6 months only. If 20% of Sweden has immunity already, that means those 20% will not have it in 3 to 6 months and Sweden is in continuous cycle of reinfection…

      • Nobody knows that.

        What researchers know is that people have relatively low antibody titers compared to other infections and that the ability of the antibodies of recovered patients if isolated to prevent infections varies greatly. Might be that the unlucky ones with the very inefficient antibodies could be infected a second time but real prove for that is lacking.

        The challenge for a vaccine would be to generate a long lasting and effective immunity. First studies in monkeys indicate at least the latter is possible.

        • Fact is that from 10,000 cases in South Korea 100 people had relapse. That is 1% man. And this is far earlier than 3 months. This virus has HIV RNA sequences. What if it can hide inside of cells like HIV and reappear? We don’t know that. So let whole population get virus is extreme risk. Correct way here is take measures, protect people and wait until we know.

          • The possibility that those “relapse” cases have just still be infected but the virus was under the detection threshold at the side of where the swap was done can’t be ruled out. New swap, new side, positive “again”. From all we know so far this is more likely at the moment.

            “This virus has HIV RNA sequences. What if it can hide inside of cells like HIV and reappear?”

            Nope. This virus lacks a reverse transcriptase.

  35. On a day when we in the UK hold a minutes silence commemorate the deaths of health professionals and all those who gave their lives for their community and patients, Monkcton sneers from the sideline with the suggestion that they were stupid and panicky. Monckton, you are beneath contempt.

    • One can only conclude that Gareth Phillips has not been following this series of articles in which Monckton of Brenchley has emphatically and repeatedly stated his view that lockdowns were necessary in order to protect health services (and implicitly those striving within). Even in the context of this single article the comment is without basis and entirely unjustified; being merely laughably and offensively stupid. A retraction and apology would be a good way forward.

  36. If one were to extrapolate from the Spanish death stats of 15764 to the world total it would suggest that around 80 children of those 19 and younger have died out of a total of 212337 deaths. For those between 20 and 49 it suggests 3312 deaths. If we exclude those whose immunity was seriously compromised from this group the numbers will be much lower. As the virus spreads in third world countries in Africa and elsewhere the percentages might increase but we simply do not yet know.

    I believe that looking back in a year or two we will see this has been a futile and foolish exercise. I do not believe that politicians and the medical experts carefully considered both the costs and consequences of shutting down economies of whole nations. If they had, we would have studies and recommendations, which we do not. The media has been shameful in pushing the coronavirus alarmism but not asking hard questions about likely unintended consequences nor about alternative responses to avert these.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/Spain_medical_cases/By_age_and_gender

    • It was to protect the Health Services from being overwhelmed, which would cause much higher numbers.
      What is not being attributed to COVID-19 are those dying of non COVID-19 illness because they either can’t or are too scared to get Hospital treatment.

    • If SARS-CoV-2 is not efficiently suppressed by UV and humidity we will see a high death toll in HIV infested countries in Africa.

      • It may be early days for Africa but there is something odd. China is involved in various African countries and this includes having Chinese working there. Why would these not have transmitted the virus there earlier? While the statistics may not be reliable, I cannot believe they would be able to hide a surge in deaths. Perhaps there are other factors. We do not know if the BCG vaccination and malaria medication has played any role. As I write, South Africa has one of the highest numbers, yet has less than 5000 cases and 100 deaths.

  37. Us stats and probably these have been overcooked-

    US stats-

    The rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 10 per 100,000 in the population.

    For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.

    Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness.

    For those under 18 years of age, hospitalization from the virus is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 people; for those 18 to 44 years old, hospitalization is 0.1 percent.

    Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms at all. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people do not need significant medical care if they catch this infection.

    • This is only formality, nobody in Czech Republic is undermining need of taken measures, they were only ordered wrong way:
      “The court confirmed our concerns that the government acted illegally when it stopped making decisions under the Crisis Management Act and proceeded under the Public Protection Act.”
      “The government will have the opportunity to re-implement them in a different manner, i.e. under the Crisis Act, before the ruling takes effect. The government has until April 27 to do so.”

      Czech Republic is one of countries which are handling coronavirus pandemic best.
      They are currently enjoying easing of measures, because virus spread is under control. Number of daily cases declining from 350 to 50 in last two weeks.
      They are on track to eradicate Covid-19 virus.

      • “They are on track to eradicate Covid-19 virus.”

        You misunderstand what confinement does, it does NOT “erradicate” the virus, it just delays when you population gets infected !

        • yep, it is going to have to work its way around everyone. Best to get it over and not suffer another lock down.

        • “You misunderstand what confinement does, it does NOT “erradicate” the virus, it just delays when you population gets infected !”

          I beg to differ, of course this strategy can work as it did so for SARS.

          As widespread as SARS-CoV-2 is and with all the global connection and traveling it is just way more challenging to keep your country’s population free of it once it was eradicated. So your economy should better be not dependent on tourism if you try this strategy cause you have to quarantine and check all people who enter your country.

          • Yes, you are right. One more comment, if your economy relies on tourism and you have Covid-19 circling in population, it is screwed anyway.

    • I doubt that Sweden is near herd immunity , though they did flatten the curve with minimal disruption.

  38. Please, Monckton…no more. You are now really lost and are trying to defend your model. Forget it, it doesn’t work, it doesn’t show anything and certainly doesn’t support any observed reality. Give it up and go back to what you know best and stop trying to position yourself as some sort of “expert” on this.

    In regard to the correctness of showing deaths per million of population…no sh*t Digby! Most of us have been using this for a few weeks now.

  39. death per million is not a sensible metric.

    e.g. Use Andorra as an example
    population 77,000
    Deaths 40
    Deaths/million = 519

    not a good place to be !!!

    • Maybe that shows that Andorra is not a good place to be.

      The principality is a very small territory, dense population, with very little infrastructure other than being one giant shopping mall. It is not even near a major french city with a large hospital.

  40. Here is fun little scientific puzzle that is explains why blacks are more than twice as likely to die of covid.

    This is the problem situation.

    Our bodies (bare skin) when exposed to sunlight produce a chemical that is required by 200 microbiology processes in our body.

    Less than 10% of this key component is available in our diet. (Exception daily fish eaters).

    There is insufficient sunlight in Canada, the UK, and in US Northern States to produce this key chemical, at the level which has been shown to reduce the incidence of most common diseases, including cancer by more than 50%, for roughly six months of the year.

    Increasing this key chemical in our body has been shown to also reduce the incidence of multiple scleroses and type 1 diabetes by more than 60%.

    Our bodies evolved to lose the skin pigment to enable white skin people, to produce sufficient Vitamin D, to live at higher latitudes, where there is less direct sunlight to produce ‘Vitamin’ D.

    Humans now work long hours indoors which explains why such a large portion of our population is deficient in ‘Vitamin’ D.

    This single graph, summarize the key facts and findings concern disease reduction if the Vitamin D population deficiency is corrected.

    https://www.grassrootshealth.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/disease-incidence-prev-chart-051317.pdf

    The ‘recommended’ daily allowance of ‘Vitamin’ D is 600 IU.

    Based on the science the recommended daily allowance of ‘Vitamin’ D should be 4000 IU to 6000 IU based on body mass.

    A glass of milk has 110 IU of vitamin D. Cow’s milk is fortified with a small amount of Vitamin D.

    A Statistical Error in the Estimation of the Recommended Dietary Allowance for Vitamin D

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4210929/pdf/nutrients-06-04472.pdf

    Letter to Veugelers, P.J. and Ekwaru, J.P., A Statistical Error in the Estimation of the Recommended Dietary Allowance for Vitamin D. Nutrients 2014,

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4377874/pdf/nutrients-07-01688.pdf

    The Vitamin D scandal explains why blacks in the US are more than twice as likely to die from Covid and HIV as white skin people.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/health/black-americans-hiv-coronavirus-blake/index.html

    https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/group/racialethnic/africanamericans/index.html

    HIV and African Americans
    Blacks/African Americans account for a higher proportion of new HIV diagnoses and people with HIV, compared to other races/ethnicities. In 2018, blacks/African Americans accounted for 13% of the US population but 42% of the 37,832 new HIV diagnoses in the United States and dependent areas.

  41. I agree with much of what he states, my one disagreement is the expert whom he quotes ,but then contradicts.By most recent studies, covid 19 may very well be 10x more deadly than the seasonal flu,but only in populations with preexisting disease , those physiologically aged, with multiple co-morbidities .However , covid 19 maybe orders of magnitudes less deadly than the flu in the young , maybe ten times less , especially those less than 18 years old. Thus ,the overall mortality rate is probably closer to .1% , that of the flu .

      • “Professor Detlef Krüger, the direct predecessor of the well-known German virologist Christian Drosten at the Charité Clinic in Berlin, explains in a recent interview that Covid19 is „in many respects comparable to the flu“ and „no more dangerous than certain variants of the flu virus“. Professor Krüger considers the „mouth and nose protection discovered by politicians“ to be „actionism“ and a potential „germ-slinger“. At the same time he warns of „massive collateral damage“ caused by the measures taken’

        “The former Swedish and European chief epidemiologist Professor Johan Giesecke gave the Austrian magazine Addendum a candid interview. Professor Giesecke says that 75 to 90% of the epidemic is „invisible“ because that many people develop no or hardly any symptoms. A lockdown would therefore be „pointless“ and harm society. The basis of the Swedish strategy was that „people are not stupid“. Giesecke expects a death rate between 0.1 and 0.2%, similar to that of influenza. Italy and New York had been very poorly prepared for the virus and had not protected their risk groups, Professor Giesecke argues’

        “The latest figures from Italy show (pp. 12/13) that 60 of almost 17,000 doctors and nurses who tested positive died. This results in a Covid19 lethality rate of less than 0.1% for those under 50, 0.27% for those aged 50 to 60, 1.4% for those aged 60 to 70, and 12.6% for those aged 70 to 80. Even these figures are likely too high, as these are deaths with and not necessarily from corona viruses, and as up to 80% of people remain asymptomatic and some may not have been tested. Overall, however, the values are in line with those from e.g. South Korea and give a lethality rate for the general population in the range of influenza”

        “The latest figures from Belgium show that there too, just over 50% of all additional deaths occur in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. In 6% of these deaths Covid19 was „confirmed“, in 94% of the deaths it was „suspected“. About 70% of the test-positive persons (employees and residents) showed no symptoms”

        an on and on and on and on…….

    • The ventilator is not a medicine when ACE2 is inactivated by a virus. Without a medicine that inhibits angiotensin II, the patient has little chance of survival.

    • How do antibodies reach the alveoli when the blood vessels are narrowed? How can oxygen be absorbed in the lungs?

      • Patients under the respirator lie on their stomachs because it makes blood access to the lungs a little easier. However, this is not a therapy, but waiting for judgment.

  42. One of the things that drives me nuts is the way the media, politicians and their bureaucrats are promoting the mass lock downs as evidence of success in ‘flattening the curve’ and thereby implying that they saved the world. But they have no real way to proving that.

    So I thought I would look for some proxy to get some insight. And it seems to me that a good one would be comparison between the 2018-19 seasonal flu numbers and the 2019-20 season flu numbers. How the flu is transmitted is similar to how the Chinese flu is transmitted. Here are numbers from the province of SK from the official government website:
    2018-2019 Flu Season in Saskatchewan 2,170 infections, 11 deaths (.0050 death rate)
    2019-2020 Flu Season in Saskatchewan 2,547 infections, 15 deaths (.0058 death rate)

    The only difference was the lockdown in 2019-20 (I believe the vaccination rates were about the same in both years in Saskatchewan). So basically there is NO difference in seasonal flu infections and deaths. With the lockdown in 2019-20 you would have expected to see a much lower rate of infection and deaths from the seasonal flu, but, alas no.

    So the supposed curve flattening is pretty much a myth.

    Any comments? I’m not a statistician, but I do have common sense.

    BTY way, to date in Sk we have had 365 Covid19 infections and 5 deaths – for a death rate of a little over .0136 (more than the flu admittedly, but not enough to warrant shutting down the whole economy)

  43. CMoB, one question:

    What changed in the analysis between Apr 24 and Apr 26 whereby the growth rate of cases now has some negative values? Thus the Apr 23 value for Australia changed from about +0.5% to -12.5%. Is this a result of the starting date shifting from Mar 28 to Apr 1?

  44. Lord Monckton (whose regard for honest argument is very impressive, incidentally) has written that COVID-19 if ten times deadlier than the flu. Well, that would depend on your definition of deadly. The flu kills children, and COVID-19 doesn’t. So the flu is much more deadly to children. By nt way of thinking, that makes it much more deadly, period, even if COVID-19 has a higher population mortality rate. Because, because, because, Lord Moncton, death in old age is not only not much of a tragedy, it is frequently a blessing. The death of someone young, and especially a child, is always tragic.

    My parents have died of old age. When they died, both they are we their children were glad, because their sufferings (which were severe) were over. Their illness and decline were tragic. Their deaths were not.

  45. Funny how the first graph features 6 countries, while the second features only 5. In the first one, Germany is included (infections), while in the second (deaths), it is not.

    Doing my math with this morning’s updated numbers from https://coronaworldonline.com/ The USA has 205, not 150 deaths/M, which still has it as the lowest of those 5 countries compared in the graph, but the USA is really not leading, because there is no justification to kick Germany out of the deaths comparison, right? Germany has 80 deaths per million, so USA is like 2-3x times worse. That is why everybody is asking Germany how they are doing it and not the US…

  46. Monkcton
    Reports from South Korea testing vary, some are opposite what you claim.

    A big problem is premature reporting, by both ‘scientists’ and media. One horror show was reporting on _one_ woman they hadn’t even talked to. When someone finally did, post-publication, they learned she had symptoms that suggested COVID-19 or INFLUENZA.

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