How many die of the Chinese virus, and how many die with it? #coronavirus

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

One of the most frequently-asked questions about the Chinese virus is how many of those who die after becoming infected die of the virus, and how many merely die with it? The Office for National Statistics in the UK has now studied that question. Of the deaths occurring in March 2020 in England Wales in patients known to be infected with the virus, five-sixths were deaths of the virus and the other one-sixth were deaths with it. Of those who died of the virus, 91% had pre-existing comorbidities.

It is not particularly surprising that the overwhelming majority of virus-related deaths were caused by the virus, for it has a drastic effect on the respiratory systems of those whom it puts into intensive care, leaving little room for doubt as to the proximate cause of death.

Raw data show that up to 10 April 2020, there had been 10,350 deaths registered in England and Wales involving the Chinese virus. Of these, 6348 (61%) were male and 4002 (39%) were female. Most deaths were among those aged 65 or over (8998, or 87%). Of these, there were 3485 deaths among those over 85 (34%). These figures suggest that there would be little harm in allowing the under-50s to go back to work.

Globally, the daily compound growth rate in cumulative confirmed cases is now below 5% in most of the countries we are tracking. We are now at the point where it would be more useful to deduct deaths and recovered cases from the totals before calculating the growth rate, but both are so poorly counted that it seems best to continue with the present method. The case-graph shows that countries that have been in lockdown can now start dismantling them.

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Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 22, 2020.

It has been suggested that looking at the growth rate in cumulative cases is not valuable because all that is really being measured is the increase in testing. There is indeed a close correlation between the number of tests and the number of confirmed cases, but – as this column has repeatedly pointed out before – correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

It remains true that most of the confirmed cases were tested because they were showing symptoms severe enough to require investigation. It is no surprise, then, that there remains a tight correlation between the rates of growth in confirmed cases (Fig. 1) and the rates of growth in deaths (Fig. 2), after allowing for the fact that deaths arise some 14 days after the appearance of frank symptoms.

Furthermore, since the rate of testing is increasing but the compound case-growth rates are falling, the indications that lockdowns can now be carefully dismantled are all the stronger.

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Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 22, 2020.

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Ron
Reply to  John Tillman
April 23, 2020 4:04 pm

As long as I don’t see real data about antibody test validation of false positive rate I stop caring about those studies. Too much bad science out there.

Sweden has withdrawn their results, antibody test used in Gangelt cross-reacts with HCoV-OC43 etc.

As with the whole thing we need patience.

Latitude
Reply to  Ron
April 23, 2020 4:29 pm

…plus they are saying not all people exposed have made antibodies

They say it won’t be over until we have herd immunity….
…so we have to be exposed to get antibodies

…and at the same time they are saying we have to do everything in our power to not get exposed

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  Latitude
April 23, 2020 5:49 pm

IMO – face masks & social distancing may do more to reduce viral load (dose) than totally eliminate exposure. Having had HAZMAT training since the early ‘80s, if you want to eliminate eye, nose, and mouth exposure, use a full face respirator with the correct cartridges and do a leak check.
Reducing viral load may help achieve herd immunity w/ fewer hospitalizations and that’s a good thing.

Fabio Capezzuoli
Reply to  Farmer Ch E retired
April 24, 2020 12:17 am

Yes, that’s the point.

David
Reply to  Latitude
April 24, 2020 2:11 pm

A damn fine summing up right there

Farmer Ch E retired
Reply to  David
April 24, 2020 8:13 pm

😊

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Ron
April 23, 2020 6:08 pm

I just offered a longish technical post on this and one other issue to CtM. IF my previously posted naiveté hypothesis from rumination 5 is correct in explaining CNV71 sailors, then your observation concerning the mistaken Gangelt antibody tests MUST follow.

I just posted some technical deep dive research to explain why this observation must follow, but missed this new datum that you provided. Excellent confirmation.

Ron
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 23, 2020 6:43 pm

Test is an ELISA from EUROIMMUN.

“Yet, we noted some cross reactivity in both ELISAs with serum samples from the same two HCoV-OC43 patients that cross reacted in a MERS-CoV S1 IgG ELISA (6)despite the different antigen coated.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038059v1.full.pdf

Blood donor samples are btw bad validation material for false positives as donors are supposed of being healthy w/o a recent cold. Anecdotal evidence from Prof. Drosten’s group at Charité in Berlin reports 4-5% cross-reactivity in random samples from cold season. IgM tests are way more error prone as IgM antibodies are less specific than IgGs. IgM antibodies from a cold can persist up to months and compromise results.

To validate positives neutralization tests in tissue cultures are therefore necessary. The Stanford study could have done this as the numbers were quite low but they would have needed bigger blood samples from the people tested positively.

Ethan Brand
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 24, 2020 6:37 am

Hi Rud
Look forward to your next post.

Questions: Given the technical challenges as to what the various Covid tests are telling us:

1) What do the various tests actually test for and tell us? Ie, antibody, antigen, “10 minute” test, nasal swaps, blood tests…etc…a summary would be highly appreciate and valuable.

2) What is the likely hood/possibility that a given person can be “exposed” to the Covid virus…and not subsequently “test” positive per any of the tests? IE, is it possible for a person to be exposed to a given viral “load”, have some sort of immune system response (that is not get sick) and then not show any evidence (with any current test) that the exposure ever took place? As an example, I use myself. I do not normally get the “flu” or a “cold” during any given year. I do get out. I assume I am exposed to various virus’s. What, if any, kind of test would track those exposures?

Thanks for your extremely useful posts.

Ethan Brand

richard verney
Reply to  John Tillman
April 24, 2020 5:17 am

At least 3 weeks ago, there was a report from Italy which examined the deaths of around 360 to 380 people who had the virus as at the date of death. At the time, the death toll in Italy was under 4,000 deaths, so this was a sample of around 10% of all CV19 related deaths.

It found that only 12 patients were killed by the virus, the others died due to comorbidity, with the virus being the final straw. They concluded that in those cases the virus had merely advanced the date of death, by days, perhaps by a few weeks (depending on the individual circumstances/conditions of the patients).

There is a reason why over 90% of all deaths in NY are of people with pre-existing medical conditions. Comorbidity is the theme of this virus, and the precise roll that these pre-existing medical issues played, is being down played, at least in the media.

There are far too many assumptions being made as to the cause of death. Unless full autopsies are carried out, we will never know the proper mortality rates of this virus, and it appears that by not carrying out such full autopsies, a cover up is under way. We are always going to left with incomplete and poor quality data that can be twisted according to the political belief or pre-existing biases of the promoter.

J. Seifert
April 23, 2020 2:16 pm

Please get Smokers and Non-smokers in. The French observed that only 5% of death were smokers….there seems to be a health effect in the nicotine.

Greg
Reply to  J. Seifert
April 23, 2020 2:36 pm

There are some really poor studies being promoted in the press. Initially form China the indications were that men where much harder hit in a population where 95% of the affected age groups males smoked and only 2% of women did. A group of studies I saw summarised earlier showed something like 55/45 M/F ratio in one chinese study of about 1000 people. Women in that group do not seem to be getting badly hit by not smoking. It does not seem to be helping the men much either.

There is a lot of very, very sloppy statistics being done with multiple confounding variables not being investigated or controlled, or even discussed.

In short science goes down the drain an anyone who can get a catchy, click-baiting headline gets published. Both the smoking issue and HCQ, I don’t see anything worth giving serious consideration to. It all seems to be agenda driven, preconceived ideas, backed up by lightweight studies.

IMO this will turn into a bigger pile of dross than climatology.

Reply to  Greg
April 23, 2020 2:44 pm

And just smokers are less hit as prviously thought. (i know that expression from somewhere…..)

Gunga Din
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 23, 2020 3:39 pm

The same Galaxy I lived in a long, long time ago in a ….

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Krishna Gans
April 23, 2020 7:57 pm

Depends on what they are smoking.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Greg
April 23, 2020 3:41 pm

“Women in that group do not seem to be getting badly hit by not smoking.”

I don’t think you recognize that that statement does not seem to be not difficult to parse.

DocSiders
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
April 23, 2020 6:13 pm

Blinked twice and moved on.

David Stone
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
April 24, 2020 2:17 pm

Thanks Jorge, wonderful clarification.

RB
Reply to  Greg
April 23, 2020 11:21 pm

At least we should find something near the truth though eventually when looking at all the data about Covid-19. We just don’t have good enough data yet, which is slightly frustrating as we should have had enough time by now to get something a bit better.

Latitude
Reply to  J. Seifert
April 23, 2020 2:57 pm

..and just a few days ago “they” were saying it was going to hit smokers harder and worse….

icisil
Reply to  J. Seifert
April 23, 2020 3:09 pm

“there seems to be a health effect in the nicotine”

Possibly decreases risk of infection due to downregulation of ACE2, but the last thing you want if infected is downregulation of ACE2 and upregulation of ACE, which apparently is what nicotine does.

gringojay
Reply to  icisil
April 23, 2020 8:17 pm

Nicotine medically administered is obviously not the same as exposing lungs to smoke; which most understand right away. What nicotine does is something(s) that is also beyond ACE/ACE2 paradigms & in patients already WuhanFlu infected the way the virus uses that to get into a cell is arguably not the most important nicotine dynamic.

Our immune system getting challenged causes an increase in the number of a sub-type of receptor known as the “alpha 7” subtype on the surface of immunological T cells of the C4(+) variety. It is not nicotine, but rather a metabolite of nicotine which our bodies generate called cotinine that gets to work via the alpha 7 receptor.

Alpha 7 sub-type receptors control downstream the poise of our Th1 & Th2 immunological components. Nicotine upstream input (via a metabolite) stimulating these receptors promotes the immune response to be more with IL-10 type of anti-imflammatory activity.

Cells in epithelium of the lungs have nicotinic receptors & nicotine inhibits those cells from releasing an upstream factor (TNF-alpha) that provokes the excessive production reactive oxygen. The downstream benefit is that then the local macrophage production of pro-inflammatory cytokines is held down & thus lung tissue inflammation is less.

Sepsis is another life threatening WuhanFlu complication & development of septic shock also involves TNF-alpha, which nicotine attenuates. Furthermore for sepsis to become deadly there must be the release of the pro-inflammatory cytokine HMGB1 & since nicotine can also control that cytokine level the chances for survival of sepsis improves.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  J. Seifert
April 23, 2020 3:43 pm

Don’t tell Pres. Trump. Please.

Rich Davis
Reply to  J. Seifert
April 23, 2020 4:54 pm

“There seems to be a health effect in the nicotine.”

I see that coronavirus is also causing the ENSO meter to return to El Niño conditions.

Bryan A
April 23, 2020 2:19 pm

There is a third possible grouping
Those that die with the disease from other diseases exacerbated by weakness derived from the disease.
Those that wouldn’t have died from the other diseases yet had Chicom-19 not weakened them

John
Reply to  Bryan A
April 23, 2020 2:43 pm

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/06/covid-with-of-or-because-of/ suggests the same. A physician colleague of mine died recently with a positive CoViD19 result, but he’d been admitted with a dissecting aortic aneurysm. The other issue is that if there is a suspicion that the person had CoViD19 and that caused their demise then it counts as a CoViD19 death.

Jeffery P
Reply to  John
April 24, 2020 7:25 am

We don’t do that with the flu or any other disease, to my knowledge. Are we exaggerating deaths to get more funding for the CDC?

Ron
Reply to  Jeffery P
April 24, 2020 8:18 am

Actually, it’s done for the flu. Only a minority of flu’s deaths are diagnosed by testing. All available numbers are hypothesized by models and counted excess mortality.

RG
Reply to  Bryan A
April 23, 2020 3:52 pm

I hope that after Covid-19 outbreak is over it will be possible to assess the more factual impact of it by comparing predicted total number of deaths, using extrapolation of the recent historic data (2016 – 2019) versus actual number of deaths. I suspect that the effect of Covid-19 will be just a small blip on the curve considering that statistically on average about quarter of million people die every day. So the impact of Covid-19 in majority of cases is that it decreases a bit life length of peoples who are close to their “natural” life span (i.e. “low-hanging fruit” effect).

Phantor48
April 23, 2020 2:21 pm

Chinese virus?? I prefer the name Kung Flu.

Wade
Reply to  Phantor48
April 23, 2020 2:34 pm

Well, like it or not, everybody is Kong Flu fighting.

Greg
Reply to  Wade
April 23, 2020 2:44 pm

… it was a little bit frightening …

Mike From Au
Reply to  Greg
April 23, 2020 4:26 pm

Every country has been Kung Flu Fighting for some time… There are Gain Of Function research labs all over the world which means all the labs have extensive libraries of viruses from all over the world including viruses from bats originating from the geographical location of China.

It happened as fast as lightning.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/20/virus-experiments-risk-global-pandemic

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Phantor48
April 23, 2020 2:40 pm

Mee tu.

Robert of Ottawa
Reply to  Phantor48
April 23, 2020 2:52 pm

I call it the Wuhoo Flu

John Tillman
Reply to  Robert of Ottawa
April 23, 2020 6:00 pm

WuWHOFlu.

Bill Powers
April 23, 2020 2:22 pm

The governments in previously free countries have taken centralized control and now need to justify why.

I don’t trust numbers from Bureaucrats who will CYA. They cannot in the end come out and say: “Oops! Never mind. Our Bad.

Waza
Reply to  Bill Powers
April 23, 2020 5:13 pm

Good comment
Outcome will be. The model said upto 150,000 Australians could die without lockdown but so far only 76 died so the lockdown was justified and we are hero’s.

MACK
Reply to  Waza
April 23, 2020 8:13 pm

In fact the Australian experts produced later data at Easter which showed the lockdown was not needed, with things under control by mid-March. https://twitter.com/j_mccaw/status/1249592269977423879
They didn’t publicise it, however, and the politicians and journalists ignored it.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Waza
April 23, 2020 8:59 pm

Indeed. As I have been saying for a long time now the users of the output from the models were over-confident about the results and forecasts. 76 people have died over 95% were over 65 and had other conditions. The first 3 deaths in New South Wales were all over 90 and were in aged care homes.

I agree with other comments, simply paying attention to hygiene, washing hands, not openly sneezing/coughing would have resulted in similar results without destroying the economy. Unfortunately, many companies have taken advantage of the COVID-19 to shed employees or reduce workdays. As an example, the UK is IMPORTING workers from eastern Europe to work on farms because people in the UK are now in lockdown.

Waza
Reply to  Patrick MJD
April 23, 2020 11:16 pm

Speaking of aged care
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/coronavirus-aged-care-facilities-urged-to-follow-visitor-rules/12181408

The prime minister says aged care facilities are not allowed to ban visitors.
Holly cow, if aged care can’t ban visitors wtfing point of locking healthy people down.
There is an arrogant belief of relatives that only staff spread flu, gastro and now corona and that it couldn’t possibly be them

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Waza
April 24, 2020 11:54 pm

The whole thing is overblown…

JohnM
Reply to  Patrick MJD
April 24, 2020 3:37 am

Because they’re cheaper. The natives won’t work for the rate they pay.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  JohnM
April 24, 2020 11:52 pm

Yes obviously! That’s not the point. The UK, under EU control, has been importing eastern European workers for decades destroying local industries. Its one reason why the Brits want out of the EU.

Greg
April 23, 2020 2:23 pm

We are now at the point where it would be more useful to deduct deaths and recovered cases from the totals before calculating the growth rate, but both are so poorly counted that it seems best to continue with the present method.

It has been suggested that looking at the growth rate in cumulative cases is not valuable because all that is really being measured is the increase in testing. There is indeed a close correlation between the number of tests and the number of confirmed cases, but – as this column has repeatedly pointed out before – correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

It remains true that most of the confirmed cases were tested because they were showing symptoms severe enough to require investigation. It is no surprise, then, that there remains a tight correlation between the rates of growth in confirmed cases (Fig. 1) and the rates of growth in deaths (Fig. 2), after allowing for the fact that deaths arise some 14 days after the appearance of frank symptoms.

I am delighted for once to be in almost total agreement with CofB. This may be in no small part because he seems to be accepting some of my earlier points and paraphrasing comments I made on Willis’ latest post but this at least encouraging.

It is no surprise, then, that there remains a tight correlation between the rates of growth in confirmed cases (Fig. 1) and the rates of growth in deaths (Fig. 2), after allowing for the fact that deaths arise some 14 days after the appearance of frank symptoms.

It is hardly surprising that there is a “tight correlation” between two monotonically rising cumulative sums, however you plot them. I would be curious as to how we can see a lag of 14 d between two plates of spaghetti.

We do see 12d in the graph I posted earlier today on the last thread.

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5d in Italy ( France lags by 14d IIRC ).
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But what’s a little plagiarism between friends , the main thing is that this is getting some accurate information out there at last. That can only be a good thing.

David Tallboys
April 23, 2020 2:27 pm

I think the same ONS figures for w/e 10 April said 18,516 deaths – 75% more than average for the last 5 years.
Big story 75% over average.

I downloaded the data from the ONS site and looked through and saw that in w/e 9 January 2015 there were 16,237 deaths. So the worst week of 2020 is only 14% worse than the worst week of 2015. Not a big story.

I also looked at the cumulative first 14 weeks:

2015 – 169,533
2020 – 166,444

It was only the last week (15) that cumulative deaths overtook 2015.

You can get the data from the ONS (Office of National Statistics) – each year is a separate spreadsheet; and then spend your idle hours of lock down doing pivot tables (whatever they are).

Greg
Reply to  David Tallboys
April 23, 2020 2:39 pm

Nice perspective. This ain’t over yet but the comparison is useful context, considering that we already has a degree of herd immunity and vaccine protection against the flu.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  David Tallboys
April 24, 2020 4:51 am

Not just 2015; ONS data for England and Wales up to week 15 2020 is lagging 2018.
Total up to and including week 15
2018 187,720
2020 184,960

I think that the choice of Flu vaccine for 2017-18 didn’t include the virus which turned out to be the predominant one.

richard verney
Reply to  David Tallboys
April 24, 2020 5:25 am

According to the ONS, the UK has seen some 44,000 to 48,000 excess winter deaths 3 times in the past 25 years. The UK is nowhere near approaching that territory with CV19 deaths. This 2020 season is unlikely to hit those highs of the past 25 years.

Eliza
April 23, 2020 2:27 pm

Well done mr Mockton as you said of AGW do NOTHING with this virus as Sweden ect has shown result will be the same. I salute you cheers. You got it.

Greg
Reply to  Eliza
April 23, 2020 2:42 pm

No, Eliza. Sweden shows Sweden made exactly the right choice for Sweden. They flattened the curve without flattening their economy.

That does not prove it would have worked as well everywhere.

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richard
Reply to  Greg
April 23, 2020 2:56 pm

Japan, South Korea?

Basically most countries followed the herd in panic.

Kemaris
Reply to  Greg
April 23, 2020 3:30 pm

Try saying the same thing to a gun grabber. They’ll refuse to accept that other countries with less diverse populations might have any confounding factors that prevent their “solution” from being directly imported to the US with the same result.

terry
April 23, 2020 2:27 pm

For those who want to understand desease and treatment/prevention

https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf

How not to treat, read page 9/10

richard
April 23, 2020 2:29 pm

Those stats are amazing-

A few weeks ago according to the Italian Institute of Health (ISS), only 12% of Italy’s reported Covid19 deaths actually listed Covid19 as the cause of death.

So now we have to figure why the Uk is so different to Italy.

richard
Reply to  richard
April 23, 2020 2:34 pm

Of course Italy illustrates that lock down was not necessary as has been figures in the following countries-

“According to data from the best-studied countries such as South Korea, Iceland, Germany and Denmark, the overall lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.4% and thus up to twenty times lower than initially assumed by the WHO”

So we have the UK as an outlier in cases of deaths caused by Corona.

Greg
Reply to  richard
April 23, 2020 2:56 pm

Of course Italy illustrates that lock down was not necessary

What is that claim based on?

For those who died, Italy had a mean stay in hospital of 5 days before death. From nearly 7000 new cases every day , care services were clearly doing little to help people survive.

You are suggesting that that was fine and they should have let it carry on expanding at a near exponential rate until there were no more old people for it to feed on.

The rate of increased dropped markedly and went negative from about 10d after confinement. Are you seriously saying that was “unnecessary” ?

We can sit an watch Italy play crash test dummy again in next few days as the effects of relaxing shut down comes into play. So far it’s just started to be visible.

https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2019-ncov-weekly-projection-italy-2/
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gbaikie
Reply to  Greg
April 23, 2020 5:56 pm

It should take 4 to 5 days to become visible

mdman
April 23, 2020 2:30 pm

Probably the most useful information needed now is the past infection rate as measured by antibody testing.

We are getting results on estimated prevalence for various populations:
– Santa Clara 2-3%
– NY state 13.9%
– NY City 21.2%
– Stockholm 25-40%
– Sweden blood donors 11%
– Gangelt Germany 15%
– French Navy Carrier 40% (most asymptomatic)
– Boston homeless shelter 36% (most asymptomatic)

Some of these were derived from antibody testing, others from antigen testing. Taken together, they suggest:

– prevalence of past infection is much higher than thought before
– asymptomatic infection rate is much higher
– as a consequence, growth (R0) must be higher than initially modelled
– that means the epidemic probably burned itself out in some countries before lockdown began
– mortality, morbidity and ICU rates must be much lower than previously feared
– mortality is probably in the range 0.15-0.4%
– lockdowns should end sooner rather than later

The UK NHS has the fewest beds, ventilators, doctors and nurse per capita compared to most other developed countries. Yet the UK is nowhere near capacity. The purpose of social distancing and lockdown was to ‘flatten the curve’ below NHS capacity – the peak of the curve is well below that.

Pat
Reply to  mdman
April 23, 2020 2:52 pm

This maybe the biggest killer of the ChineseOriginatedVIralDesease-19

‘Where are the strokes and the heart attacks?’ Doctors worry as patients avoid ERs

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/where-are-the-strokes-and-the-heart-attacks-doctors-worry-as-patients-avoid-ers/ar-BB132xg1

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Pat
April 23, 2020 3:56 pm

And I’ve noticed that people who do go to the hospital are being ejected up to 5 days prematurely.

astonerii
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
April 23, 2020 4:15 pm

If they die without going to hospital, they are automatically covid-19 deaths

Randle Dewees
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
April 23, 2020 4:19 pm

Wow, that would mean for the 3 level cervical fusion operation I had in 2012 I would have been discharged two days before the operation. Negative hospital stays, someone has been drinking vulnut wine, Ghlen Livid perhaps.

Randle Dewees
Reply to  jorgekafkazar
April 23, 2020 5:01 pm

Ah, I thought you meant all hospital stays, but reading your comment again I see you mean COVID19 related.

John Tillman
Reply to  mdman
April 23, 2020 3:03 pm

As of today, confirmed COVID-19 cases among CVN-71 crew number 18.7% (840/4500), with one death, a 41 year-old sailor.

james sternhell
April 23, 2020 2:36 pm

With the overwhelming majority of deaths and transmissions being in clusters- nursing homes and cruise ships, this should be the focus in terms of action.
Why on earth nobody has mentioned ozone to reduce airborne virus and initial viral inoculation is as odd as the way vested interests have dismissed hydroxychloroquine treatment. Ozone at about 20 parts per billion reduces viruses by 90-90% without any adverse effects. Thus, less people will pick up the infection and more importantly, the size of the initial inoculation will be drastically reduced. It makes sense that multiple sites within the lungs all spreading at the same time would overwhelm the immune system of a medically compromised person. Ironically, ozone is typically produced by corona discharge.
Air conditioning systems, which are great spreaders of pathogens could easily have ozone or ultraviolet treatment. I would not be in the least bit surprised if negative ion generators were also effective.
A big question mark is why the push to have everyone vaccinated and verification (RFID chip.) Bill Gates in particular, who has stated there are too many people on the planet.
As for the Chinese, there are several “please explain” questions to answer.
WHY did they halt internal travel to prevent the spread yet encourage people from Wuhan to travel overseas?
Why did they have the “hug a Chinese” – it is racist if you don’t when they knew about the problem??
Why id the snap up medical supplies from around the world when they knew about the problem (insider trading)???
There are serious issues with the worldwide shutdown due to a more virulent strain of the flu than usual.
Scamdemic.

james sternhell
Reply to  james sternhell
April 23, 2020 2:47 pm

Just have to correct a couple of typos (was burning breakfast) –
90-99 % reduction of airborne viruses.
Why did they snap up medical supplies from around the world before revealing the problem to the international community?

Scissor
Reply to  james sternhell
April 23, 2020 3:21 pm

Pristine air has ozone at 20 ppbv. In most places, ozone is over double that and in major metro areas its 3 or 4 times that, sometimes more.

I’d use ozone on a timer to disinfect a room that can be sealed and left to itself, but ozone is hazardous, especially to lungs.

richard
April 23, 2020 2:39 pm

In the end all we had to do is select those at risk and isolate ie those who were old with an illness and not lock down the country.

John Tillman
Reply to  richard
April 23, 2020 2:46 pm

Nursing homes in the NYC metro area became death traps. Many were crummy to start, then tardy in masking up staff, improving hygiene and limiting visitors. Hence the heavy toll there.

richard
Reply to  John Tillman
April 23, 2020 2:52 pm

in other countries the staff fled from the nursing homes.

Scissor
Reply to  richard
April 23, 2020 3:23 pm

The Inuit used to put their elderly on an ice floe, so the story goes.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Scissor
April 23, 2020 4:04 pm

And that was great for the poor polar bears who might have gone extinct, otherwise. Win-win.

/s

Scissor
Reply to  Scissor
April 23, 2020 5:17 pm

More sad news, Elizabeth Warren’s brother heads to happy hunting grounds.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1253332675315724289

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Scissor
April 23, 2020 6:38 pm

Scissor
And the Inuit used to expose their newborns the first night. Only the toughest (and lucky) survived.

The Japanese on Hokkaido used to have a cultural practice of exposing their elders to the cold after their 70th birthday.

It is tough living in a society without fossil fuels.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  richard
April 23, 2020 5:21 pm

“In the end all we had to do is select those at risk and isolate ie those who were old with an illness and not lock down the country.”

Twenty and thirty-year-olds are now reported to be suffering from strokes caused by blood clots possibly caused by the Wuhan virus. The young people are suffering these problems even though their respiratory infection had barely developed.

This virus is nasty to those it affects and it’s not just old, infirm people. And it may end up being very detrimental to those who have recovered from the disease, as it seems the longer the virus is in your body, the more damage it does not only to the lungs but to every organ and this may have longterm health effects for those who survive it.

Those who already have immunity and have not been severely affected by the Wuhan virus ought to get down on their knees and say a prayer of thanks. It could have been a lot worse. it is for a lot of people.

RB
Reply to  Tom Abbott
April 23, 2020 11:31 pm

If you look at the ONS weekly mortality stats for the UK currently covering up to the 10th April you can’t see any signal in extra deaths in people under 45. Obviously you can highlight a handful of exceptions but as a population they are ultra low risk. Mortality only starts rising notably above about 70. Just download the latest spreadsheet and look at the weekly stats tab.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Tom Abbott
Reply to  RB
April 24, 2020 5:13 am

I think you have to admit that 20 and 30-year-olds having strokes is not normal.

gbaikie
Reply to  richard
April 23, 2020 6:42 pm

I think if ended international air travel sooner and then stopped all mass transit travel [planes, trains, buses, subways, then we would have had enough time to isolate, the old and those at risk.
And we have modify behavior, in terms of other crowded areas, which includes covering mouth and nose.
To open mass transit, they have modify such vehicles, so as lower spread viruses in them, and perhaps lower all infection in general in the future. And same applies to all crowded areas- bars, stadiums, etc.
Such measures would be designed to reduce rather the impossible of stopping spread of viruses.
And as metric, if had airline being 1/2 filled would reduce it, compared to full.
Or could runs at 1/2 capacity until improved it, so full capacity is same 1/2 capacity without the improvement. Or perhaps more dramatic, like full capacity is same as 1/4 capacity.

Joel O'Bryan
April 23, 2020 2:45 pm

“Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
April 23, 2020 2:49 pm

Two studies from Sweden has been withdrawn because of errors. (calculation and premisses)

astonerii
April 23, 2020 2:48 pm

Christopher argues that it is obvious that Covid-19 was the cause of the vast majority of deaths. But if flu’s were counted the same way that covid-19 is counted, it would have an infection fatality ratio pushing 3% or more. There are always lots of upper respiratory deaths during the flu season that are not counted as flu deaths.

Kemaris
Reply to  astonerii
April 23, 2020 3:33 pm

If you looked at prostate cancer the way the CDC records Wuhan flu deaths, about 80% of men would die “of” prostate cancer (as opposed to dying with it).

Reply to  astonerii
April 24, 2020 4:52 am

Here’s the official guide to Covid case detection.

comment image

icisil
April 23, 2020 2:56 pm

The numbers are meaningless without including iatrogenic mortality. This illness has all the markers of having a significant share of that.

Greg
Reply to  icisil
April 23, 2020 3:09 pm

I agree. It seems a very large proportion of deaths were caused by inappropriate use of ventilators. I doubt those deaths will every get reassigned though.

icisil
Reply to  Greg
April 23, 2020 4:06 pm

I think it goes way beyond that. I highly suspect that all of the weird covid morbidity that doctors have never seen before is due to destabiization of renin angiotesin system homeostasis (ACE/ACE2 counter-regulatory balance) that is being potentiated by pharmaceutical treatments that deplete zinc (like ACE inhibitors) and increase ACE2 expression (like ACE inhibitors and ibuprofen), and hospital inpatient treatments that remove ACE inhibitors from ICU patients (increases ACE while ACE2 plummets due to infection), experimental toxic anti-virals (depletes glutathione, the key lung antioxidant), analgesics that deplete glutathione (paracetamol/acetaminophen), etc. I think I’m just scratching the surface.

Derg
April 23, 2020 3:12 pm

It’s time to put people back to work. Too many family and friends suffering with no paycheck. Youth look at this like a giant recess.

Who are we trying to save?

J Mac
Reply to  Derg
April 23, 2020 4:14 pm

Agree! The operation may have been a technical success…. but the patient is dying from government forced economic strangulation. #FreedomIsEssential

Tom Abbott
Reply to  J Mac
April 23, 2020 5:32 pm

I got out and drove around a little bit today. I live in Oklahoma and our State is getting ready to relax some of the Wuhan virus restrictions tomorrow.

I went to the Bigbox store Lowe’s today, and the store was full of people. About half the customers were wearing masks and none of the clerks were wearing masks. Perhaps they didn’t get the memo.

It looks to me like there is already a lot of commerce going on, and I expect that to pickup fairly quickly if infections don’t get out of hand. People are going to be pushing the “restrictions” envelope, eager to get back to work. It kind of looked like that today.

Here’s hoping we don’t get a big flare-up. The medical authorities seem to think they can get on top of it. We shall see.

Anyway, things in the economy are starting to move, according to my anectdotal trip to the outside world today.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
April 23, 2020 6:06 pm

Btw, the traffic was heavy today. Everybody out there filling up their gasoline tanks with inexpensive gas and going shopping.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
April 24, 2020 4:52 pm

All the local barber shops and Hair Salons are booked up solid on opening day.

Scissor
Reply to  Derg
April 23, 2020 4:38 pm

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Scissor
April 23, 2020 8:41 pm

Wow
She’s so, I don’t really have words

Why would anybody want to put food on the table, that’s so Ronald Reagan

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Derg
April 24, 2020 2:53 am

Who are we trying to save?

1. Those over 60
2. medical workers

the numbers really dont matter now.

every decision from here on out will be perceived to cause more pain and suffering
or less pain and suffering.

every bit of data will be questioned, who lives, who dies, who is unemployed…
everything will be suspect and uncertain.

learn to cope with it

Waza
Reply to  Steven Mosher
April 24, 2020 3:35 am

“Learn to cope with” – absolutely not
I am a grown up. I have suffered a lot in my life, but I got over it.
I have made mistakes in my life, but I admit these mistakes.
Our politicians correctly took action to reduce covid based on information they had.
But they have made mistakes. But they don’t want to admit it or change course.
To me it is absolutely disgusting that I should “ learn to cope with” politicians stuffing the economy because they can’t admit a mistake.

RobR
April 23, 2020 3:13 pm

NTD News reports a 20 million account decrease in cell phone usage.

Obviously, this information requires additional confirmations.

RobR
Reply to  RobR
April 23, 2020 7:55 pm

In China, that is. Story claims an increase in usage for the same period in the previous three-years.

Suggested causes include; decreased pay as you go traffic due to economic hardship and increased deaths.

Story is on YouTube. I’m unable to link to it.

Gunga Din
April 23, 2020 3:21 pm

Why is “nicotine” being signaled out? The big baddie that caused cancer was never nicotine. It was the “smoke”.
Maybe because smoking other things is now deemed “harmless” by those who smoke it?
PS I date back a long way. And I did inhale back then. Deeply. (That’s how you do it.)
Don’t try to blow smoke in my eyes!
PPS J. Seifert, sorry if this sounds like it was aimed at your comment. It wasn’t meant to be.
It just brought to mind that those who condemn and penalize smoking tobacco want to legalize smoking … something else.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Gunga Din
April 23, 2020 3:26 pm

Dang!
This was meant as a “Reply” to J. Seifert’s comment above, not a “new” comment.
(Whatever went wrong was probably on my end.)

peyelut
Reply to  Gunga Din
April 23, 2020 4:18 pm

Follow the Money, the Doh-Re-Me, Tax and Profit -wise . . . . .

icisil
Reply to  Gunga Din
April 23, 2020 4:46 pm

Nicotine apparently upregulates ACE and downregulates ACE2. Potentially a good combination for reducing infection risk, but a bad one if infected.

Nicotine and the renin-angiotensin system
https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/ajpregu.00099.2018

Michael Walter Davis
April 23, 2020 3:26 pm

What seems very strange is that nobody is talking about the actual number of deaths.
How do these numbers compare with deaths in wars
1) Battle of Verdun 38000 on last day of WWI
2) Battle of the Somme 50,000 the 1st day of the battle in WWII
3) Battle of Stalingrad – at least 600,000.
What about the Spanish Flu?
What about deaths from Malaria in Africa? Totally preventable and totally ignored.
What about the supposed 600,000 deaths from a single earthquake in China?
I wonder whether the hyperbole in global climate change predictions has anything to do with this?

John Tillman
Reply to  Michael Walter Davis
April 23, 2020 5:55 pm

Battle of the Somme was in WWI.

Your figure of 50,000 must be for first day (July 1, 1916) casualties, not fatalities. Most deaths were British, at close to 20,000. French and German much fewer.

Horrific, and avoidable with better tactics, which the Ulster Division used.

Waza
Reply to  Michael Walter Davis
April 23, 2020 10:28 pm

Australian COVID 19 deaths currently 76
Australian Road Toll deaths currently 286.

Also, 21,000 deaths are attributable to smoking each year in Australia

RobH
Reply to  Michael Walter Davis
April 24, 2020 3:00 am

80k deaths in the UK from Hong Kong flu. Estimated one to four million worldwide. No lockdown. No media panic. Temporary minor economic impact.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
Reply to  Michael Walter Davis
April 24, 2020 4:22 am

Battle of the Somme was WWI, not WWII. There’s a lovely 9/8 bagpipe tune (retreat march) with that title.

See here .

The Battle of the Somme, also known as the Somme Offensive, was a battle of the First World War fought by the armies of the British Empire and French Third Republic against the German Empire. It took place between 1 July and 18 November 1916 on both sides of the upper reaches of the River Somme in France. The battle was intended to hasten a victory for the Allies and was the largest battle of the war’s Western Front.[7] More than three million men fought in the battle and one million men were wounded or killed, making it one of the bloodiest battles in human history.[8]

For the bagpipe tune see here.

April 23, 2020 3:38 pm

How many will die as a result of the extravagant Global Shutdown?

Walt D.
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
April 23, 2020 3:50 pm

The question is whether capitalism (even US crony capitalism) can be resuscitated?
If not, socialism has been the biggest killer of them all.
(oh, I forgot – this time it is going to be different /sarc)

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Walt D.
April 23, 2020 5:59 pm

“The question is whether capitalism (even US crony capitalism) can be resuscitated?”

The U.S. will certainly come back to life. The demand that was there in February is still there, and most people still have the same amount of money they had in February when unemployment insurance payments and government programs are figured into the mix, barring a last minute holdup by Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats..

So, when the authorities give the green light, the American consumer is going to start buying like they did before the virus. Some things will change, but there is still demand and people still have money so the economy will boom if given a chance.

This won’t apply six months from now. We can’t afford to keep everyone solvent for that long. If it lasts that long, there will still be demand, but the money in people’s pockets will be diminished absent government help, so then the economy will take a hit for a while.

The U.S. is in good shape economically right now. It was sound before the virus and it is still sound. We just need to get things moving. Safely.

FranBC
Reply to  Tom Abbott
April 23, 2020 8:47 pm

Canada is rolling out massive income support. However, what my two sons-in-law will get is much less than they got working. One needs a new (old) car rather desparately and the other has twins coming in the next month. Screwing the young to save the ‘vulnerable is causing a great deal of hardship. It is time for the ‘vulnerable’ to lock themselves down or take their chances. I say this as one of the ‘vulnerable’.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  FranBC
April 24, 2020 5:20 am

“Screwing the young to save the ‘vulnerable is causing a great deal of hardship.”

Well, if the Wuhan virus killed 10 percent of those it infected and afflicted all age groups, then you wouldn’t be saying that. You would be saying why didn’t we go into lockdown sooner.

You see, we didn’t know that would not be the case when the Wuhan virus first reared its ugly head. For all we knew, it might have been able to kill hundreds of millions of people.

Now that we know the virus a little better, we can deal with it and start our economies back up. We didn’t have this luxury when the virus first appeared. We had to assume it was very deadly.

Pat
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
April 23, 2020 3:51 pm

‘Where are the strokes and the heart attacks?’ Doctors worry as patients avoid ERs

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/where-are-the-strokes-and-the-heart-attacks-doctors-worry-as-patients-avoid-ers/ar-BB132xg1

commieBob
April 23, 2020 3:45 pm

How many die of the Chinese virus, and how many die with it? #coronavirus

I don’t care.

IMHO, the only meaningful number is excess deaths. Everything else seems to be tainted by opinion.

Roger Knights
Reply to  commieBob
April 23, 2020 7:15 pm

“IMHO, the only meaningful number is excess deaths.”

But that figure is much lower than normal because, as a result of the lockdown, there are many fewer deaths from auto accidents, other accidents, and ordinary flu.

commieBob
Reply to  Roger Knights
April 23, 2020 7:33 pm

Do you have a link or are you just guessing?

The New York Times is presenting information that excess deaths are dramatically up. link

RicDre
April 23, 2020 3:56 pm
April 23, 2020 4:17 pm

Some stats for my home state Texas as of 2020 April 23. They look very similar by age group to those for England and Wales.

COVID-19 statistics below from:
Texas Department of State Health Services

Percent of population by age group below:
US Census Bureau 2018 July 1 estimates

28,995,881 population 2020 (Worldometer)

21,944 confirmed cases (0.076% of population)
13,358 active cases
8,025 recovered
561 deaths (0.002% of population)

Closed cases allocated by age group:
2,977 confirmed cases
2,725 recovered
252 deaths (8.5% of closed cases)

Under age 40:
57.2% of population
32.7% of cases
3.2% of deaths

Under age 50:
70.1% of population
50.9% of cases
7.9% of deaths

Under age 65:
87.4% of population
78.5% of cases
25.8% of deaths

Age 50+:
29.9% of population
49.1% of cases
92.1% of deaths

Age 65+:
12.6% of population
21.5% of cases
74.2% of deaths

Age 80+:
2.8% of population
7.0% of cases
42.5% of deaths

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Bryan - oz4caster
April 23, 2020 7:07 pm

That has to be the most confusing way to describe %ages per age group that can possibly exist!

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
April 23, 2020 7:34 pm

Hahaha. OK TMI, but if you read it carefully, it’s packed with info.

Waza
Reply to  Bryan - oz4caster
April 23, 2020 8:18 pm

The age issue has been obvious for months.
What about detailed comorbidity breakdown by country.

April 23, 2020 4:18 pm

Tests and conclusions during an epidemic are notorious for being wrong. One common bias is not using random selection for tests. People who don’t feel well will volunteer for a test, but people who feel fine will prefer to stay home. After the fear level declines, it’s much easier to get a random sample.

Does anyone here know if any other corona viruses have a vaccine, because I can’t find any.

John Tillman
Reply to  Richard Greene
April 23, 2020 5:49 pm

For birds and non-human mammals, yes.

April 23, 2020 4:22 pm

“It is not particularly surprising that the overwhelming majority of virus-related deaths were caused by the virus, for it has a drastic effect on the respiratory systems of those whom it puts into intensive care, leaving little room for doubt as to the proximate cause of death”

It also causes great circulatory harm, which can separately be a cause of death. The main inaccuracy in the count is not the overcounting of those who died with (but not of) the disease, but the undercounting of those who died of the disease, but without proved diagnosis.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Nick Stokes
April 23, 2020 6:03 pm

“The main inaccuracy in the count is not the overcounting of those who died with (but not of) the disease, but the undercounting of those who died of the disease, but without proved diagnosis.”

Yes, it sounds like Wuhan virus has a lot more tricks up its sleeve than just respiratory problems. The “circulatory harm” is just now coming into focus.

Petit_Barde
April 23, 2020 4:38 pm

It’s the instigated hysteria and the mostly useless and actually damaging strict lockdown – madness based on not even a single scientific publication – that is the actual tragedy, not the SRAS-COV2.

The only real issue was to protect the nursing homes and the most vulnerable, not to destroy the economy and create millions of unimployed among people who is not even at risk, and the fact is that lockdown is a complete failure in all those aspects.

Now, good luck to all the locked-down countries with the backtrack they will have to face as soon as possible while coping with a population who has been “chicken-littled”, went bonkers and is now afraid of his own shadow.

As I already said, 2020 will be remembered as the worst decision ever made which transformed a rather severe flu (but nothing more) leading to a planetary economic collapse and a much more accute health disaster.

Mike From Au
Reply to  Petit_Barde
April 23, 2020 5:22 pm

Agreed.

SMS
Reply to  Petit_Barde
April 23, 2020 5:22 pm

I have to believe what you are saying is true. It will be interesting when this is all over and someone who has access to the data will integrate the death bump and recovery dip to see how many really died of the Wuhan Flu and what the average loss of months in life will be. We may all be very surprised.

anna v
Reply to  Petit_Barde
April 23, 2020 11:18 pm

Petit_Barde : “which transformed a rather severe flu (but nothing more)_,”

Take Lombardy as an example, a real experiment, before lockdown, where the health system was overwhelvmed and doctors made euthanasia decisions.

Suppose the government did not impose lockdown so as to keep the economy going, and as a result the the health and funerals system completely collapsed , no health services from collapse on.

Could the economy survive?

With the workforce getting ill for two weeks and staying at home?

with people dying of usual and Covid illnesses and relatives overburdened?

with schools out of order because of sick teachers?

With factories half force for two weeks and high order supervisors and executives ( older than 60) dying off with no medical care?

etc.etc.

(Would Johnson have survived without NHS working?)

That is what the decision makers in Lombardy estimated/visualized and went to lockdown, to save what they could because anyway disaster for economy lay ahead as far as they could see.

I think it was Catch 22 for the economy, and they went into saving the health care and funeral systems, to limp along

Bob Ernest
April 23, 2020 5:29 pm

Am I the only one who cannot see the red line in the graph.
Normally there is a link to higher quality graphs.

Thanks for this Anthony and CMoB

Waza
April 23, 2020 5:37 pm

In New York -Hypertension is an over represented comorbidity with covid 19
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184

New York has higher rates of hypertension deaths than other states.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm

Flight Level
April 23, 2020 5:57 pm

Behind the scenes:

-We went to fly back home a certain number of expats. Cabin crew was literally annoyed by the uber-nosy PR relations & press delegated on-board that wouldn’t stop flashing and filming around, let alone perpetually stick microphones in people’s masks and ask them to describe how much they have suffered and if they could describe scenes of death and destruction.

At a point, the “kabinchef” called the deck to inquire on the opportunity of a PA announcement to unwind the rampant tensions.

A one of a kind “Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your captain speaking” ensued.

Face it, something, someone, somewhere needs to procure dramatization each and every way.

icisil
April 23, 2020 6:51 pm

New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-released-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/

Roger Knights
April 23, 2020 6:57 pm

Here’s a long exculpatory piece, from America’s National Public Radio, in need of a critique:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident
Virus Researchers Cast Doubt On Theory Of Coronavirus Lab Accident
NPR: April 23, 2020 7:08 AM ET
GEOFF BRUMFIEL EMILY KWONG

“The assessment, made by more than half-a-dozen scientists familiar with lab accidents and how research on coronaviruses is conducted, casts doubt on recent claims that a mistake may have unleashed the coronavirus on the world.”

gbaikie
April 23, 2020 7:57 pm

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation
BY DR. SCOTT W. ATLAS, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 04/22/20 12:30 PM EDT
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation
Linked from https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/

I would say maybe enough data is in- and stop panic and end the total isolation, in some places.
But maybe more important, start baseball as soon as MLB can start it.
And MLB should use the data we know- a try their best to in factor in data we don’t know.
I am going to comment on 5 “facts” of above article:
“Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.”
Right. And we knew this from the beginning and Public officials said it. It was true then as it is true now.
In terms specific regarding it:
“the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 in the population.”
It seems like a lot of deaths in that age group.
I don’t think you can extend it to entire US population. But if imagine you could, US population is:
328 million, 1 per cent: 3.2 million, .1 percent 320,000, .01 percent is 32,000.
If imagined all US was 18 to 45 years old, 32,000 dying in about month is pretty serious number of 18 to 45 years olds dying.
And there is certainly more 328 million 18 to 45 years old in the world and probably more than that in North and South America. Check world demographics, World 26% 15 or younger, and 9% over 65 years.
Say 60% of 7 billion is 4200 million, so 420,000 dead in couple months for the 18 to 45 year old.
Or US lockdown, didn’t just save Americans.
WHO committed a war crime, because WHO advised not to shutdown airlines. If US did something similar to WHO, the US would be as guilty of war crime as WHO is.
South America going to be huge problem, but if US did not lockdown, it would a bigger huge problem, which would impacted them sooner, than it’s beginning to impact them now. If South America countries don’t learn anything from what they should already learn by our experience- it’s on them.

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.
Yes. Specifics?
No comment.
Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem
Probably true. Specifics?
“Extending whole-population isolation would directly prevent that widespread immunity from developing.”
Probably we didn’t have chance to do this, due to 4-5 day delay in showing any symptoms. Even if WHO did their job. But since WHO failed, we didn’t have chance to do this, and didn’t vaguely do this.
If WHO and CDC was doing a good job {both fantasy expectations}, China’s failure, would make unlikely to do this. The only way for this to happen depended upon China, and even if China would responded in fashion like say US, it’s clear, CDC could managed it. Clear they could a lot better than China, but it’s a tricky virus. and not having it slowly spread throughout the country {and rest of world}, is probably couldn’t do it right now, with what we already know about it. Or S Korea did an excellent job, and I don’t think they stop it from spreading in their country and escaping from S Korea. Or their herd immunity is probably quite low, but I think they could have more then one might guess.

gbaikie
Reply to  gbaikie
April 23, 2020 11:30 pm

“Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.”

This might have been a concern, but currently it seems it’s less of concern:
State Guidance on Elective Surgeries
Updated: April 20, 2020
https://www.ascassociation.org/asca/resourcecenter/latestnewsresourcecenter/covid-19/covid-19-state

New York state:
“APRIL 21, 2020 Albany, NY
Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, Governor Cuomo Announces Elective Outpatient Treatment Can Resume in Counties and Hospitals Without Significant Risk of COVID-19 Surge Starting Next Week”
And lately New York State has been continuing to decline- though at micro level it seems unlikely it’s a uniform decline, some will and some won’t, and might be most will start taking elective surgery, but probably not like cosmetic surgery unless is related to health issues.
California:
Coronavirus: California hospitals can resume non-emergency surgeries
Purely cosmetic procedures are still prohibited
PUBLISHED: April 22, 2020 at 2:32 p.m. | UPDATED: April 23, 2020 at 2:48 a.m.
And in heard news, that California beaches are open, though social distancing will enforced.
Texas lifted it’s elective medical restrictions
But it seems there are quite of few which still have such restrictions, but many seem say
if it could life threatening it does apply- though errors could be made in this regard,
but it currently doesn’t look like many deaths could be caused by this.
I believe regionally there could be spikes related to the virus, not certain California will continue to
rise, but seems no where overcrowded hospitals, but just more visits to doctors has more risks, but in LA area, it seems most are wearing masks, and if going to medical care, imagine everyone would wearing the better masks.
Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
We have and had a general idea about population at risk, though uncertain if proper action is being taken- I simply don’t know. But considering the news coverage, I imagine individuals are somewhat informed and on individual level are taking action. Ramping up immunity tests will help make universal actions taken, be better.

Julius
April 23, 2020 8:04 pm

As I’ve mentioned before here, to persist in using the US psyop term “Chinese virus” marks this article as possible disinformation/BS/propaganda.

The term “Chinese virus” is not the scientific name, nor has the virus been shown to have originated in China.
It is most likely a US bioweapon, but it’s complicated so don’t take my word for it:
https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-our-coronavirus-catastrophe-as-biowarfare-blowback/

The fact that the US has been consistently lying about the presence of the virus in the US since the fall of 2019 doesn’t add to their already pathetically low credibility, after having been caught out lying about just about everything under the sun over the past several decades. Supposedly it entered the US through the west coast, yet anyone with half a brain cell can look at a map of deaths/cases and see that it started there on the east coast. Everything the US is saying about the virus is misinformation meant to confuse.
Oh, and by pure accident it infected and killed a dozen (!) from Iran’s leadership but virtually no other country’s heads of state. A new virus pops up out of nowhere and immediately affects two main opponents of the US…no coincidence there, folks.

Come on Monckton, stop being Trump’s useful idiot and call the virus what it really is: the US virus

[stop changing emails and usernames. I’ve let one of this repetitive group through. We are content neutral. You’re getting held in moderation because you’re trying to circumvent moderation -mod]

Julius
Reply to  Julius
April 23, 2020 9:07 pm

I haven’t changed usernames or emails.
You deleted my comments with my old Yahoo address, so I’m trying to re-post similar comments with my more current email.
If you censor comments on this website then just go ahead and admit it for crying out loud, don’t accuse me of misbehavior.

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Julius
April 24, 2020 9:24 am

Daft. Even if it’s US made the stupid Chinks let it loose, having nicked it.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Julius
April 24, 2020 5:34 am

That’s a ridiculous conspiracy theory, Julius.

I hear the Chinese are mounting a very large disinformation campaign around the world to try to divert attention from themselves. Tell them it won’t work. It doesn’t matter where the virus came from, what matters is that the Chinese leadership knew thet had a very infectious, deadly disease breaking out in their country to the point that they shut down internal air flights, while at the same time encouraging international flights for weeks afterwards, and complaining when other nations like the U.S. stopped flights out of China. The WHO was castigating Trump for stopping the flights. There.s no getting out of it. It’s documented that this happened.

But feel free to continue to try to make excuses for the Chinese leadership. The Chinese leadership has deliberately harmed a lot of people and a lot of people are very angry at them for this. The Chinese leadership is correct to be worried about their situation.

Steven Mosher
April 23, 2020 8:21 pm

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation

If you want to make a smart argument it is better to base it on data RATHER THAN
attacks on data.

Julius
Reply to  Steven Mosher
April 23, 2020 9:22 pm

How smart is it to make an argument on bad data?
Cause I don’t see how anyone who understands data can be so lazy as to confuse the wildly contradictory sets of numbers gathered with varying different metrics and procedures & protocols….with actual data.
Is everyone using the same test? no
Was the test designed for diagnostic purposes? (no, according to it’s inventor)
Is testing being applied to general populations to get a baseline? no
Are the same criteria used to identify & quantify covid deaths? no

You’re kidding yourself.
We don’t have data.
We have politically manipulated propaganda disguised as numbers.

Reply to  Julius
April 23, 2020 10:13 pm

Well, it’s the Steven Confirmation Bias Mosher. Only data that conforms to his current world view is acceptable.

Mind you looking at the posts here, he is not alone in that.

But then once you realise that governments and self styled scientists have been lying to you about climate change its hard to accept that in this instance they might actually be telling the truth…

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Leo Smith
April 24, 2020 12:33 am

“Well, it’s the Steven Confirmation Bias Mosher. Only data that conforms to his current world view is acceptable.”

err no

read harder.

“If you want to make a smart argument it is better to base it on data RATHER THAN
attacks on data.”

very simply, rather than making arguments like “the data is a fraud”
it’s better to base your argument on data.

pretty simple

Steven Mosher
Reply to  Julius
April 24, 2020 12:36 am

“You’re kidding yourself.
We don’t have data.
We have politically manipulated propaganda disguised as numbers.”

Then no policy maker will ever listen to your argument.

But if you can fashion an argument from the data they accept,
then you convince them with their own data.

Or you can go to the policy maker, scream at them that they are frauds using fraud data
and see how far you get.

icisil
Reply to  Steven Mosher
April 24, 2020 3:47 am

You still don’t get it that shit data produces shit results.

Steven Mosher
Reply to  icisil
April 24, 2020 4:56 am

You still don’t get that deciders don’t care what you think.

Heck, when there were 68 cases in the USA and 0 deaths

I used my Brain and shit data from China to warn you guys.

“but mosh is an alarmist who wants testing”

yup.

here is the thing. even the shit data from China told you there was a problem
the perfect data from Korea told you there was a problem.

Shit data from Italy? told you there was a problem.

With all the shit data New Zealand and Australia managed to whip this thing.

meanwhile you think shit data isn’t usable.

Hong Kong, sent specialists to china, they listened to the shit data, they calibrated
the shit and took the wise course of action, not waiting for perfect data
that WILL NEVER COME.

the prize goes to the people who know how to work with compromised data
make the best of a bad situation, learn from others and act early.

you guys don’t seem to be learning. you can’t engineer your way out of this.
you can’t go back and demand better data, or run the test over.

you have what you have.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  icisil
April 24, 2020 5:41 am

“you guys don’t seem to be learning”

“You guys?” Everyone at WUWT? Could you narrow that down a little, perhaps to the poster you are addressing?.

Mike From Au
Reply to  Julius
April 24, 2020 1:43 am

Agreed.

ren
April 24, 2020 12:29 am

“Raw data show that up to 10 April 2020, there had been 10,350 deaths registered in England and Wales involving the Chinese virus. Of these, 6348 (61%) were male and 4002 (39%) were female.”
You can see the same difference in the deaths of men and women as in New York (in percent). I think men over 50 (especially over 65 years old) at risk because of age-related hormonal changes.

richard
April 24, 2020 12:48 am

hmmmm- “Of those who died of the virus, 91% had pre-existing comorbidities”

I would still like to see those independently checked.

After all when re-checked in Italy the numbers plummeted.

richard
Reply to  richard
April 24, 2020 2:12 am

meaning- “only 12% of Italy’s reported Covid19 deaths actually listed Covid19 as the cause of death’

MrGrimNasty
April 24, 2020 1:10 am

“One of the most frequently-asked questions about the Chinese virus is how many of those who die after becoming infected die of the virus, and how many merely die with it?”

No it isn’t, it’s how many were on their last legs anyway – and would have been taken out by the next cold or flu of tummy bug or urine infection etc.

At least you answered that, the vast majority, more than 90%.

This pointless fear mongering really needs to stop, enough damage has been done already.

Liam
April 24, 2020 1:45 am

Christopher, Some days past you compared how Sweden was doing so much worse than Finland and Norway. I know they adjoin but why didn’t you compare with two other nearby countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium with >6,000 and >4,000 deaths respectively? I don’t think it is fair to be so selective with data that they might not get a mention even if you can come up with reasons why they are so different. Similarly, why Portugal and Spain have such differing death rates is an intriguing question.
You also stated that Ireland was ‘going the wrong way’. Of course it was, on your graph! But being here, I knew that the numbers were set to rise before they did, because the effect of batches of samples sent to Germany for testing, and the purchase of testing serum for use at home, was about to kick in. So there is much more behind the graphs than the incidence of Covid-19. As for the comment today that most testing cases displayed symptoms which were severe enough to warrant investigation, I wonder how would you explain that in Ireland 111,500 tests only produced 17,000 (approx.) cases. What severe symptoms had the rest of the people tested? In Ireland we seem to have gone from predicting 60% of the population to be infected, to a prediction of 15,000 by the end of March to a reality of 15,000 on the 19th April. Our politicians will attribute the major shortfall to be a consequence of their ‘prompt and decisive action’ in locking up the country! Others wouldn’t.

richard
April 24, 2020 2:16 am

“The ONS system is predicated on the registration of deaths. Meaning they count, not the number of people who die every week, but the number of deaths registered per week. This, naturally, leads to slight delays in the recording of numbers as the registration process can take a few days.

However, with coronavirus deaths, since its a “national emergency”, they are now including “provisional figures” which will be “included in the dataset in subsequent weeks”. This leaves them wide open to – either accidentally or deliberately – reporting the same deaths twice. Once “provisionally”, and then once “officially” a week later’

richard
April 24, 2020 2:25 am

The collection of numbers for how many died is a mess- not to be trusted.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/05/covid19-death-figures-a-substantial-over-estimate/

Steven Mosher
Reply to  richard
April 24, 2020 2:43 am

like the people who trusted flu numbers?

hey how about those holocaust numbers?
do you doubt those too?

richard
Reply to  Steven Mosher
April 24, 2020 8:06 am

or the numbers Neil Ferguson threw around that started lock down- 500,000 in the UK and a couple of million in the US.

His figures have always been way off for everything.

Disturbing to see you resort to a very emotive subject from the past to prove your point.

Alarmists have form in that are calling those skeptical of climate data, deniers. I can now see where this is leading!

JimW
April 24, 2020 3:13 am

The ONS cannot possibly decide who died ‘with’ or ‘of’ cv-19. Its a Stastical Unit just taking info from death certificates. Since the recent change in advise to doctors how cv-19 should be recorded on the certificates, no-one knows whether or not it had any influence on actual morbidity.
What we can easily see is the match between age profiles of overall morbidity and that with cv-19 recorded on certificates. Its an absolute match. Now either this virus is damned clever, mimicking every morbidity in the population or its actually causing few if any deaths. That is not excluding its role in enhancing the already ill state of many patients.

Vuk
April 24, 2020 3:28 am

“How coronavirus attacks your veins, heart, brain and blood – as well as lungs.
We are seeing a range of illness; some people develop blood clots, others heart attacks or kidney failure,” said Prof Ajay Shah, BHF Professor and consultant cardiologist at King’s College Hospital, London.
There are still many unknowns, but the amount of research effort that is going on to try and understand exactly what is happening to patients with Covid is absolutely phenomenal.”

The article is behind pay-wall, but if interested you can find text here in the next day or two.

Vuk
Reply to  Vuk
April 24, 2020 3:34 am

Accompanying image

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Vuk
April 24, 2020 6:01 am

““How coronavirus attacks your veins, heart, brain and blood – as well as lungs.
We are seeing a range of illness; some people develop blood clots, others heart attacks or kidney failure,” said Prof Ajay Shah, BHF Professor and consultant cardiologist at King’s College Hospital, London.”

Hydroxychloroquine in the French study cleared the body of the Wuhan virus in about five or six days. Remdesivir may be doing similar things.

It looks to me like we need to get this virus out of the body as soon as possible. The longer it stays, the more damage it does, and the damage may be longterm for the survivors. So it needs to be diagnosed as soon as possible. There are some reports that the Wuhan virus is doing damage to the other organs of the body, while at the same time not producing respiratory symptoms, so a person could be being damaged and not even realize they have the virus until some of their damaged organs start failing, or they get a stroke. The Wuhan virus is nothing like the flu when it comes to the detrimental effects it has on the whole body.

Let’s hope we have some medications that can clear this drug quickly. That would solve most of our shortterm problems.

The Director of the Department of Veterans Affairs addressed the study of hydroxychloroquine that was given to some 300+ veterans and he said the results looked very encouraging. That is in direct contrast to a report that came out claiming this group of veterans did not benefit from hydroxychloroquine therapy.

We ought to know a lot more about these medicines in a short time as there are numerous trials going on right this minute. Keep your fingers crossed!

EdB
Reply to  Steven Mosher
April 24, 2020 6:37 am

Show the way to how you can delay herd immunity? Sweden is doing the opposite. It will be interesting to see the dat two years from now.

dave
Reply to  Steven Mosher
April 24, 2020 7:06 am

How much is due to the population density of these countries?The mid west also has very low rates,unlike the UK or Large US cities.

cedarhill
April 24, 2020 5:28 am

While all the lock down folks are shouting “it worked”, there is 100% no proof that it was nothing more than the pagan priests shouting out the same thing regarding all their bonfires beating back the demons at the winter solstice. And there likely is no way other than crafting narratives with selected figures to overcome uncertainty of any of the numbers since no one really can provide supporting, confirmed and verified probability spaces.

Ron
April 24, 2020 5:55 am

Interesting thought experiment to project backwards in time to have an idea if lockdowns worked:

https://t.co/EgumDVdk5C?amp=1

Would be interesting to combine with growth rates and smartphone tracking data to see which effect was already on because people changed behavior.

chadb
April 24, 2020 6:21 am

Let’s say someone is in a sled at the top of a snow covered hill. At the bottom of the hill is a 50 foot cliff and at the bottom of the cliff are rocks, spikes, and rabid lions. Now somebody gives the sled a push. What kills the guy in the sled? Is it the push, the hill, the snow, or the certain death at the bottom? The thing about this virus is that it seems to be the push.
I don’t think these sorts of confounding effects can ever be sorted out. The best we will be able to do is look at the number of people who die from respritory diseases this year compared to the last 10 years, and everything outside of 2 standard deviations is likely excess deaths due to COVID. I suspect that to the nearest whole percentage that will be 0. That is, the excess deaths will not be outside the uncertainty bounds of normal respiratory deaths.

PJF
April 24, 2020 6:52 am

This might be of interest to Monckton of Brenchley:

https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/headline_720672_en.html
“This new analysis found that death from COVID-19 results in over 10 years of life lost per person, even after taking account of the typical number and type of chronic conditions found in people dying of COVID-19.”

Study:
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

.
For myself, I regard the of/with issue to be academic. People are dying because of COVID-19. Include them all. It doesn’t change the lockdown / no-lockdown argument.

k. montgomery
April 24, 2020 1:10 pm

Question for Christopher Monckton.

Not meaning to be combative, just curious.

Today (2020-04-24), doctors from a prominent California hospital released an interview wherein they describe and discuss the statistics based on data that they have accumulated and analyzed.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU

The question is: does what these doctors are reporting tally with the statistics that you have been accumulating, and are their conclusions warranted?

richard
Reply to  k. montgomery
April 24, 2020 2:23 pm

“millions of cases , small amount of deaths”

Reply to  k. montgomery
April 24, 2020 3:59 pm

k. montgomery for Leader!

This is magnificent. These guys are in contact with the Director of the California Dept. of Public Health, and he agrees with them. Watch the whole thing. Wow, the world has shot itself in the foot, let’s not shoot the other one too.

Get Birx and Fauci on the phone, yesterday!

Thank you very very much for posting this.

gbaikie
Reply to  k. montgomery
April 24, 2020 8:31 pm

“The question is: does what these doctors are reporting tally with the statistics that you have been accumulating, and are their conclusions warranted?”

They said it’s “like the flu” and it’s more viral than the flu.
I would say a something like the flu, but more viral, required the measures to be taken.
But would say the measure have already been taken, and now, let’s get out of lockdown.
Which roughly agrees with what they said.
The interesting thing {or factor I was unaware of], is we should expect people’s immune systems to be be lowered from lockdown. I would say that if that is the case, it’s another argument for gradual process of “exiting lockdown”. And if politicans delay starting to slowly get out of lockdown {especially more “severe lockdowns”] they lose the ability to gradually get out of lockdown. And their delay to start gradual steps, will be murdering people. Or they may only think, getting out lockdown too soon, could murder people, but delay in starting gradual release of lockdown could murder more people.

Reply to  gbaikie
April 24, 2020 11:48 pm

What he said

Reply to  k. montgomery
April 25, 2020 4:59 pm

I sent this on to both Fox News, who has responded, and Rush Limbaugh, who has not, yet. I hope they both use it. This video could very well change world history for the better.

Reply to  k. montgomery
April 25, 2020 8:00 pm

I also sent it to my sister who is a big deal at the Johns Hopkins medical school, Chief Pediatric Officer. Of course this is not pediatrics, which she will tell me in the morning, but she knows the right people there.

Reply to  k. montgomery
April 28, 2020 5:03 pm

Fox ran it! I do not know how many people sent it in. Apparently the video has had 5 million views. Well done k. montgomerie

April 24, 2020 11:52 pm

Except for the murdering part, Excuse Me???????

gbaikie
Reply to  Michael Moon
April 25, 2020 4:17 pm

Well, perhaps Manslaughter, rather than “murdering” would a better term, but Manslaughtering a lot people is arguably worst than a murdering a few people.

And politicians tend to use a excess amount hyperbolic language, and as non politician, I think I can be excused for using hyperbolic language in regards to the people who are very accustomed to the use of it.

–Manslaughter is the unlawful killing of one human being by another without malice aforethought.

There are several types of manslaughter, including:

Involuntary manslaughter. This often refers to unintentional homicide from criminally negligent or reckless conduct. It can also refer to an unintentional killing through commission of a crime other than a felony. In November 2012, a Las Vegas jury found a man guilty of involuntary manslaughter for a single punch to a fellow casino patron who died when he hit his head as he fell.
Voluntary manslaughter. When a murder charge is reduced to manslaughter due to mitigating circumstances, such as heat of passion or diminished capacity, the reduced charge is sometimes voluntary manslaughter.–
https://www.criminaldefenselawyer.com/resources/murder-and-homicide.htm

But there seems there is some malice involved, and so generally it might be manslaughter, but is also seem there an appearance of hate/malice involved. Why would one stop people from fishing or from visiting a park, as examples?

Tim Bidie
April 25, 2020 10:56 am

So in Italy 12% of Covid 19 deaths are direct causality, ‘from’ Covid 19, 88% ‘with’ Covid 19 as determined by the scientific adviser to the Health Minister, Prof Walter Ricciardi, meaning their true cause of death was a result of their underlying condition, and pneumonia caused by the virus simply sent them over the edge.

But in Britain, as determined by the Office of National Statistics, not hitherto much noted for their expertise in pathology, it is pretty much the other way around……..

Ratty turned to Mole, with a knowing wink: ‘The old jokes are always the best, and that’s a fact, and no mistake!’

April 25, 2020 7:56 pm

And,

Our good Count, what do you think of k. montgomery? Please watch the video, huge, huge news…

Tim Bidie
April 26, 2020 7:05 am

Toad said to Mole ‘Now look here, I may not always be right, but I am never wrong!’

To which Mole replied ‘I may not know much about nonsense, but I certainly knows it when I sees it, and that’s a fact, and no mistake!’

‘Of the 3,912 deaths that occurred in March 2020 involving COVID-19, 3,563 (91%) had at least one pre-existing condition, while 349 (9%) had none. The mean number of pre-existing conditions was 2.7.

The most common main pre-existing condition was ischaemic heart diseases’

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020#characteristics-of-those-dying-from-covid-19

Reply to  Tim Bidie
April 28, 2020 6:40 pm

“Wind in the Willows,” to those of you who did not recognize Toad of Toad Hall, Rattie, and Mole…

rah
April 26, 2020 10:14 pm

My mother had Alzheimer’s for 13 years. It robbed her and all of us of who she was. The last few years she gradually became more resistant to taking any exercise. Her death certificate listed pneumonia as the cause of death but it was Alzheimer’s that killed her.
You’ll never convince me that anyone will ever be able to accurately quantify who died with this virus and who died from it. Some things are just too complex, requiring far too much detailed investigation to accurately quantify statistically. What your trying to do is like trying to paint a Monet with a 4″ paint brush. It’ can’t be done.

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