Communist censorship and the Chinese virus #coronavirus

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The Communist far Left in the West are now actively censoring reports critical of the Chinese Communist Party’s criminal late reporting and false information about its virus, just as they have been censoring information showing that the climate scam is just that.

Youtube, owned by Google, began by inserting links to the World Death Organization’s generally inadequate and often flat-out inaccurate information about the Chinese virus, and then took to demonetizing videos critical of Communist China.

Today, David Wojick at CFACT reports that over the weekend it posted on Farcebook, no less under far-out Left control than Youtube and Google, a New York Post op-ed by Steven Mosher questioning China’s assertion that its virus originated at the filthy Huanan seafood market in Wuhan.

Farcebook not only suppressed the NYP op-ed: it suppressed CFACT’s report of the op-ed, saying that “independent fact-checkers” had found CFACT’s piece to contain false information. Fact-checking entities are often little better than Communist front groups.

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Don’t tread on me

Steven Mosher’s op-ed, first published on February 23, was widely read online until Farcebook’s “independent fact-checkers” stepped in and pasted a “False Information” alert so that Farcebook friends could not click to connect to the original article to see for themselves.

For instance, CFACT found that the Farcebook share ratio for its piece about Steven Mosher’s article was only 11.7,

For comparison, on CFACT’s Farcebook page the share ratio for a piece on economic recovery after lockdown was 66, for a joke about a cat and dog discussing the virus 73, and for an editorial calling for lockdowns to end 84.

David Wojick comments: “The more that Facebook uses biased algorithms and phony “fact checkers” to censor content, the more important it is for you to like and share CFACT’s Facebook content to compensate.  Forward our emails to your friends.  Don’t make it easy for anyone to silence you or us.”

Farcebook recently censored Dr Jay Lehr of the Heartland Institute, who contributes opinion pieces to CFACT’s website. In a piece entitled A very fresh look at climate change, Dr. Lehr discussed the role the sun and other factors play in the climate.  Climate campaigners used Farcebook’s tools to report Dr. Lehr’s article.

As a result, Farcebook reduced the number of people who saw the article.  It put the words “False information” over the picture of the Earth that illustrates the article and linked to a soi-disant “fact-check” article which states, falsely, that “anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas emissions account for 100% of the rapid global warming trends observed after 1950.”

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Censorship most foul

In fact, as Legates et al. (2015) demonstrated, only 0.3% of 11,944 papers published after peer review in climate journals in the 21 years 1991-2011 even went so far as to state that at least half of the warming of recent decades was manmade.

Dr. Jay Lehr, then, is not only entitled but more than usually well-qualified to say the Sun has more influence than official climatology would like to admit.

David Wojick points out that so-called “fact-checking” entities are dominated by the Left.  They take sides with the intention of preventing the public from benefiting from a balanced and free marketplace for ideas from which to make up their own minds.

One of my greatest disappointments with the current Republican party is that, when it held the priceless trifecta of all three houses – White, Senate and Representatives – it did not pass a law guaranteeing free speech and preventing the Communists (or “Democrats”, or whatever they like to call themselves) from interfering with the constitutional right of free speech.

Amnesty International, a Communist front group, has just issued a statement that calling the Chinese virus the Chinese virus is racist. It’s no more racist than calling a spade a spade.

Today’s graphs show that Ireland’s case-growth rate has now fallen into line with the other nations tracked here, but that Sweden’s death-growth rate is among the highest. On the question whether Sweden should have taken more steps to prevent transmission of the pathogen, the jury is still out.

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Fig. 1. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from March 28 to April 21, 2020.

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Fig. 2. Mean compound daily growth rates in cumulative COVID-19 deaths for the world excluding China (red) and for several individual nations averaged over the successive seven-day periods ending on all dates from April 4 to April 21, 2020.

Ø High-quality images of the graphs are here.

180 thoughts on “Communist censorship and the Chinese virus #coronavirus

  1. I wonder when the commies are going to get around to declaring the USA has committed an act of war against China. After all, China has accused US military personnel of releasing the virus (weapon of mass destruction?) in Wuhan.

      • Who is “we”, you and your pet hampster?

        I didn’t know and was surprised to see our Mosh’ being given access to NYP.

        Today’s graphs show that Ireland’s case-growth rate has now fallen into line with the other nations tracked here, but that Sweden’s death-growth rate is among the highest. On the question whether Sweden should have taken more steps to prevent transmission of the pathogen, the jury is still out.

        Which “jury” is that ? The one man, self-appointed “jury” of the nobility of Brentchley ?

        No, Sweden have flattened the curve without flattening their economy. They have had a manageable 500 new cases per day for the last two weeks. They undoubtedly made the right choice for their country. This can be clearly seen by looking at unfiltered daily cases, not cumulative sums distorted by a crappy running mean.
        https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-log-growth-ie-sw.png

        That graph also shows what happened in Rep. of Ireland: the number of cases jumped from 267 to 1160 in two days and then remained stable for the following week. That is unlikely to be a medical reality but this fact is hidden by your hopelessly informative data mangling and spaghetti graphs which you insist on regurgitating almost daily here.

        For a more informed analysis of the effects of confinement we can look at Italy which has a surprisingly regular record and the longest record of confinement of western nations.

        This clearly shows the exact timing of effect of confinement and is already showing the first signs of the expected increase in cases due to relaxation or the rules.
        https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2019-ncov-weekly-projection-italy-2/

        Italy without the spaghetti.

        • If Mr Goodman does not find these posts helpful, he need not read them. But his spiteful tone comments neither Mr Goodman nor his hysterical argument – such as it is – to any rational being.

          • That word, I don’t think it mean what you think it means.

            You need to look up the word hysterical . That is several times you use it to describe comments you don’t agree with that are anything but hysterical.

            If you find my remarks “spiteful” you do not need to read them. 😉

            However, for as long as you persist in regurgitating your pathetic pseudo analysis, attempting to influence opinion and refusing to address any and all technical criticism of your methods, I will continue to point out your errors, blunders and spurious conclusions which WUWT has oddly decided to give you continues access to propagate here.

            Your belligerent refusal to address technical critique has meant that you have not progressed one jot from you initial inept stab at data analysis. You are still offering up same plate of warmed up spaghetti. Enough is enough.

            You goofed up , get over it.

        • Some people are born stupid. Some people have stupidity thrust upon them. Some people spend their lives determined to be stupid. Are you all of them or can you pick one?

          • I have presented reasoned arguments and a link to detailed technical analysis of the data. I imagine from your total absence of an informed response to any of that that you must fall into one of those categories yourself.

          • Greg or Greg Goodman, I believe it’s against site policy to keep changing your name. Even if it wasn’t, it’s potentially confusing. Pick one and stick to it please so readers can know it’s the same person posting. Thanks.

          • Well if no one has anything more pertinent to say that stupid knitpicks like that it really does not matter who posts what , does it?

            I normally post simple as Greg for brevity but then the local lord of the manor starts having a hissy fit about identity as a deflection to avoid addressing any technical criticism of his half baked spaghetti plots. So I started posting my full name. That did not help him address any of the problems but it does mean he has one less excuse to avoid answering.

            Maybe read my article on Italian data or take part in the discussion of Ireland and Sweden, unless of course you have nothing intelligent to say.

          • In other words, you chose to double down on your flaunting the forums rules and insult the people who point those rules out to you. Fine. Next time I’ll simply report your rules violations directly to the mods rather than asking you nicely to be consistent on the name you post under. Maybe you can try your condescension on them and see how well that goes.

          • In other words, you decide to double down on your knit picking and absence of anything intelligent and pertinent to add to the discussion.

            I said “unless of course you have nothing intelligent to say”. That is NOT an insult it is a conditional : unless. You get to chose whether that applies to you. You insult yourself by doubling down on the knitpicking and attempting to employ some kind of sneaky “ill run and tell teacher ” threats. How pathetic can you get?

            I can only assume that somewhere you disagree with me but don’t have the wherewithal to make a coherent contribution.

            BTW site rules forbid sockpuppetry. Since I’m making the same arguments and linking to the same analysis on my own WP , I hardly think I’m pretending to be some one new. Everyone including you manages to work out it’s the same person. Moderation automatically picks a new name or an email mismatch and puts posts on hold for manual checks. Both these names are recognised by the moderation filters and does not seem to be an issue. Now please grow up.

            If you have some disagreement about Sweden , Ireland or my in depth analysis of Italian data, I’d be more than happy to discuss it with you.

          • Greg,
            I’m for ending the lockdown / hostage crisis ASAP.
            Try to fight being bitter (at least you come across that way, sometimes). Comments like your retort to Monkton of Benchley, “If you find my remarks “spiteful” you do not need to read them. ;-)” was funny, and the better way to go. Obviously, presenting clear data to back up your assertions is also the way to go – I found your two links immediately above to be very clear.

          • And you triple down. I brought up one simple request to you (even pointed out why you should do so “because it’s potentially confusing” rather than “running to teacher” as you so snidely put it) and you chose to be snippy in reply. and continue to be ass in your replies. It’s your choice to be a jerk.

            I can only assume

            You can assume whatever the hell you want, just remember what Benny Hill had to say about doing so.

            BTW site rules forbid sockpuppetry. Since I’m making the same arguments and linking to the same analysis on my own WP , I hardly think I’m pretending to be some one new

            And the casual reader doesn’t *know* that, all they see is multiple posts by multiple handles. Other people have been warned in the past by the mods for doing the exact same thing you did (variations on the same name). So yes, you are breaking the rules whether you wish to believe it or not. Do you wish me to ask the mods to come here and verify that? I’d gladly do so after the way you’ve behaved. But as I said, even if it wasn’t against the rule, you should stick to one name to *avoid* any possible confusion.

            Everyone including you manages to work out it’s the same person.

            Only because you happened mentioned the previous post under a different name was yours. otherwise it wouldn’t have been so clear, You are hardly the only Greg in the world, you know, despite how undeservedly highly you clearly think of yourself. And it wouldn’t be the first time multiple posters with similar names have appeared in the same thread sometimes with similar views, sometimes with opposing views.

            Now please grow up.

            pot meet kettle. Why don’t you grow up and start behaving like a civil adult when someone makes a friendly suggestion to you instead of being as ass about it. Or do you plan to quadruple down on your bad behavior?

          • Telling someone that what they are saying isn’t intelligent, isn’t an insult?

            Greg really gets upset when we don’t think as highly of him as he thinks of himself.

        • “No, Sweden have flattened the curve without flattening their economy. They have had a manageable 500 new cases per day for the last two weeks. They undoubtedly made the right choice for their country.”

          Sweden’s numbers are bogus, way to few testing. Their death rate of closed cases is 78% after 2 months of testing. Totally unreliable. Even Italy, France and Spain got their data handling in check after a few weeks. Only UK is still a mess.

          We will see how bad Sweden will perform in the overall excess mortality in the next weeks. They cannot hide these numbers.

          Prof. Woo-Joo Kim’s estimate of CFR is currently 2-4%. CFR calculated from closed cases is more at the upper boundary for countries with more cases (2.3% Taiwan, 3.4% SK, 4% Austria, 4.8% Germany).

          • You can see how Sweden is performing on overall morbidity right now on Euro Momo ( updated today) its actually performing well, much much better than England which is now the ‘world champion’ .

          • From the website:

            “Note on interpretation of data: The number of deaths shown for the THREE MOST RECENT weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise.”

            Just wait and see. The virus also makes big vacations on the weekends in Sweden.

          • The delayed information is the same for all reporting countries, and the data at weekends in the UK shows a similar dip as everywhere else.
            Why the need to show Sweden badly? It was the same in the western media with Japan before the ‘national emergency’ was called, which if anyone has been following has made little difference to people’s pattern of behaviour or the death trend which is still under 300 for a population of 120m.
            Its as if people want it to be a lot worse than it is. Its very similar to the climate change fanatics except here we have role reversal with climate change ‘realists’ having emotionally committed to cv-19 being a really bad bug refusing to see the evidence that its not really.

          • To quote myself

            “Only UK is still a mess.”

            So there’s no meaning to use UK as an example for reliability.

            “Why the need to show Sweden badly?”

            There is no need. The statistics are quite clear about how reliable which numbers are and that it is better to wait to make conclusions about if Sweden is doing well or not.

            “Its as if people want it to be a lot worse than it is.”

            Not at all.

            “Its very similar to the climate change fanatics except here we have role reversal with climate change ‘realists’ having emotionally committed to cv-19 being a really bad bug refusing to see the evidence that its not really.”

            It’s not. There is a real dead count. Real data. Not made up data and fake science with preset results.

            It says a lot more about the people who are thinking that both alarmists’ climate change and SARS-CoV-2 are made up things but that they are actually so narrow-minded that they don’t see what’s the difference.

          • JimW, what is it about population and population density you don’t understand where spreading of deseases is concerned?
            Sweden population 10 million density 65/sq m.i Stockholm popn less than 1 million, density 13,000/sq mi.
            England population 56 million density 259/sq mi. Central London popn 9 million density 14,670/sq mi. Plus all those travelling in to and out of london each day to work or visit.
            But the real crunch is the Tube, which carries 2-3 million people twice per day.
            ie 2 to 3 times the whole population of Stckholm crammed in to train coaches.
            Then we have the airport densities,
            Sweden’s Arlanda Airport 27 Million Passengers per year.
            London’s Heathrow Airport 80 Million Passengers per year.
            Then we have the demographic difference, like more Swedes live alone than the English.

            If you really think the Ten Million Swedes are being well served by their government I strongly suggest you compare them to the Ten Million Czechians with a population density of 359/mi2, 5 times higher than Swedens.
            Czechia 7136 cases and 210 deaths, 20 deaths/million
            Sweden 16004 cases and 1937 deaths, 192 deaths/million

            Or even compare them to the other Nordic countries, total up Norway, Denmark and Finland.

          • “There is a real dead count. Real data.”

            Yes there is death count. But dead from what? How?

            If they died from medical “care”, don’t count on the medical people to write that down.

        • Greg,
          “No, Sweden have flattened the curve without flattening their economy. They have had a manageable 500 new cases per day for the last two weeks. ”

          I would caution you against drawing any conclusions at all from any of the case data for any nation without running some pre-screening tests on its validity as a measure of infection growth. One crude measure of this is whether you can find a reasonable match between the scaled and lagged case curve and the daily deaths curve. If you cannot, then that is quite likely to be an indication that you are dealing with a change in sample population for the testing, since the deaths are typically drawn from the same genus population of confirmed hospitalised patients.

          This is most apparent when countries have very limited testing capacity. When testing capacity limits are under stress, the only tests which are run are urgent confirmatory diagnostic tests for patients presented for hospitalisation or discharge, and this is reflected in an increasing percentage of positive tests and a slow growth or false plateau in daily cases. When spare capacity is made available, which often appears on an irregular basis as test capacity is sporadically added, more tests are run on non-hospitalised patients and you see then that (a) the percentage of positive tests can decrease suddenly but also (b) more positive tests are added from the non-hospitalised population, who may have only mild symptoms or be asymptomatic. This change in sample population – a reweighting of serious symptom patients in or awaiting hospitalisation and others – can render the case growth fairly meaningless as a diagnostic tool.
          Sweden has the third worst record in Europe in terms of testing as a proportion of its population (after UK and France) and we might therefore expect that its case growth numbers are not trustworthy. It does indeed fail the prescreening test I outlined above.
          Better to analyse the death statistics, and these do tell a different story about Sweden.

          • I would caution you against drawing any conclusions at all from any of the case data for any nation without running some pre-screening tests on its validity as a measure of infection growth. One crude measure of this is whether you can find a reasonable match between the scaled and lagged case curve and the daily deaths curve.

            Thanks for this very pertinent point, kribaez

            I did this some time ago for several major countries. Italy lags by about 5d and France by 13d. Sweden is 12d. Here is a re-run with current data for Sweden.

            https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-log-case-vs-deaths-sw.png

            Sweden is a bit more noisy that other countries due to smaller numbers, but I don’t see any major problems and it does seem to pass the lag test.

            Thanks for bringing up a good point.

          • Greg,
            Thank you for your response. Interesting and instructive. I support a best-fit lag time of about 12 days between cases and fatalities for Sweden. On reviewing the data, I can “fail to reject” a lagged relationship with only minor modification to account for the weekend reporting problem evident in the data. So, I might indeed be premature (or completely wrong) in declaring the case history data to be bunkum. What happens over the next week to 10 days will be critical to determine the question. If the daily death rate plateaus, then the case history is a good predictor. If it continues to climb, then the plateau in case histories is an artefact of testing capacity.

        • “No, Sweden have flattened the curve without flattening their economy. They have had a manageable 500 new cases per day for the last two weeks. They undoubtedly made the right choice for their country. This can be clearly seen by looking at unfiltered daily cases, not cumulative sums distorted by a crappy running mean.”

          Sweden tests an abysmal 1% of their urban population and has one fo the highest positive
          rates in the world.
          basically you can find what you dont test for.

          next. over 50% of all infections come from family to family transmission.
          and in Sweden > 50 of people live alone.

          last. Sweden actually has been practicing social distancing voluntarily.

          places like the USA didn’t have that option because their are nutjobs who think it is the flu

          • Sweden tests an abysmal 1% of their urban population and has one fo the highest positive
            rates in the world.
            basically you can find what you dont test for.

            next. over 50% of all infections come from family to family transmission.
            and in Sweden > 50 of people live alone.

            last. Sweden actually has been practicing social distancing voluntarily.

            Thanks for the reply Steve. So it seems we agree on most of what I said. Sweden made the *right choice for their country* and that does not mean it is necessarily good for others.

            They will obviously risk having higher numbers in the short term than other countries which have gone into hard lockdown and chosen to kneecap their economies.

            You’ll need to come back in six months to compare once other countries have played out the delaying tactics of a flattened curve.

          • See my post above.
            Czechia has not gone in to full lockdown either and are totally out performing Sweden.
            Guess why.

          • Some of us know the Wuhan Virus isn’t the flu. It’s a nasty virus that dishes out a terrible way to die. But, it does seem quite “Darwinian”, taking out the old, weak and diseased. I don’t want to sound dismissive, since the victims are dearly loved and missed. But, the outworking of this virus keeps reminding me of a nature documentary on a pack of wolves – attacking the relatively weak most often, the strong fairly rarely.

            But I am still shocked and appalled that we’ve been in lockdown for weeks, with at least weeks to go. Life is dangerous. Bad things happen to good people. Life is wonderful, get out there and live it – be as careful as you can – but get out from under the dining room table, and live!

        • I would like to stand up for mosh. Being wrong on many topics need not prove evil intent, although it’s not ruled out, either. 🙂

    • The fact is that COVID death in the US is primarily a metro NYC phenomenon, with outliers in New Orleans and Detroit.

      The vast majority of the country didn’t need economy-destroying shut downs. Even states with suffering urban areas, like my Oregon, didn’t need to shut down most counties. Yet brainswashed voters will probably reward the totalitarian Democrat governors who hopped on the fake crisis bandwagon.

      States with higher urban populations than NY have wisely not gone full lockdown, like FL and TX. CA has drunk the Demo Kool-Aide, yet even so hasn’t suffered NYC level death rates.

  2. “Dr. Jay Lehr, then, is not only entitled but more than usually well-qualified to say the Sun has more influence than official climatology would like to admit.”

    There is a pattern in climate skepticism of offering critical evaluation of AGW climate science by offering alternative theories for the recovery from the LIA and the current warming trend. My view is that this is a flawed approach for two reasons.

    First, it plays into the burden of proof fallacy trap such that AGW remains the default correct theory as the null hypothesis until a more convincing theory is found.

    Second, and more important, it allows methodological flaws of climate science to survive under the protection of the burden of proof fallacy as the currently accepted null hypothesis. In this way, multiple alternate hypotheses to combat AGW introduces layers of complexity in the AGW debate that intrinsically accepts and protects the sanctity of AGW as the “null hypothesis”.

    In my view, critical evaluation of a proposed theory should address only the data and methodology until these issues are resolved; rather than to muddy the waters by debating the the burden of proof fallacy theories offered by skeptics.

    • Exactly so. The burden of proof should be to demonstrate that the observed warming is not entirely natural. We started warming out of the Little Ice Age (LIA) long before anthropogenic CO2 was an issue. It is entirely reasonable to expect that process to continue for a while.

      I have seen no convincing explanations that would allow us to predict when we will bang back into glaciation. I have seen no convincing explanations, with any predictive power, of when we go into warm periods like the RWP and the MWP and when we go into cool periods like the LIA.

      It is ridiculous on the face of it that the warmists can’t explain and predict anything else but they can somehow predict CAGW.

      • “commieBob April 22, 2020 at 6:59 pm
        Exactly so. The burden of proof should be to demonstrate that the observed warming is not entirely natural”

        Yes sir, Mr CommieBob. If climate science can explain Holocene temperature dynamics as cause and effect phenomena they should not pick one out of ten to explain.
        That’s called the “data selection bias”
        Details here …

        https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

      • “the warmists can’t explain and predict anything else but they can somehow predict CAGW”
        Please don’t disrespect Al Gore, a famous scientist and a real Nobelist and movie maker. Explain? He simply delivers a sermon. There is nothing to explain.

    • Humans have contributed about half of the approximately 1 C° warming since the low in 2009 by increased water vapor. The rest of the temperature increase is attributed about equally between influence quantified by the proxy of sunspot numbers, and, an approximation of the net effect of ocean surface temperature cycles. CO2 has no significant effect on climate.

      Total precipitable water (TPW) i.e. water vapor, is measured using satellite based instrumentation by NASA/RSS and numerical anomalies are reported monthly. Data through March, 2020 is at http://data.remss.com/vapor/monthly_1deg/tpw_v07r01_198801_202003.time_series.txt and will be until about 10 May. They change the link every month so after that you will need to change the last digit from 3 to 4. Their home page is at
      http://www.remss.com/measurements/atmospheric-water-vapor/tpw-1-deg-product

      TPW anomaly with reference value of 28.73 added is graphed here thru Feb 2020: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HXX9IJkJWHYZkjyEH85oen3-CXTNEcID

      UAH, RSS, NOAA, GISS & Hadley all report that average global temperature has been increasing. The higher temperature increases the vapor pressure of liquid water and higher vapor pressure means more WV in the atmosphere. Measured WV (TPW) is compared with WV increase calculated from UAH temperatures at https://drive.google.com/open?id=103oZtgHRtTsf12ybW-Ucn2gS8Qdbq9Yd which includes a live link to a paper containing the method.

    • Chaamjamal has not understood the subtleties of the sentence he has cited. There is a very good case (see, for instance, David Archibald’s recent posting here) that the Sun has more influence than official climatology would like to admit. That does not say that anthropogenic warming has no influence: merely that perhaps the Sun has an influence too, which any open-minded observer would have to allow as a possibility.

      And it is not enough for us to say that it is for the climate Communists to prove their case. They control the news media and the minds of the stupider politicians (which is most of them). So it is for us to prove the climate Communists wrong, whether or not they have acted illogically in reversing the burden of proof.

      And, whether Chaamjamal likes it or not, the data and methodology in solar studies are no less relevant than any other data when considering the extent of Man’s influence on climate.

      • I agree with Lord Monckton, who wrote as follows:
        “And it is not enough for us to say that it is for the climate Communists to prove their case. They control the news media and the minds of the stupider politicians (which is most of them). So it is for us to prove the climate Communists wrong, whether or not they have acted illogically in reversing the burden of proof.”

        Climate skeptics are fighting a highly successful false propaganda campaign by the extreme left, who control the media and most of our institutions, including public education and the universities.

        Besides, the scientific falsification of the CAGW hypothesis is so easy. In my January 2020 paper, I listed ~25 falsifications of the left’s climate hysteria – and as Albert Einstein famously stated “One would be enough”.

        Climate alarmism is not, and never was a credible scientific debate – it has always been a Goebbels propaganda campaign to influence the uneducated and the feeble-minded, and it has been remarkably successful.
        _________________________

        THE CATASTROPHIC ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (CAGW) AND THE HUMANMADE CLIMATE CHANGE CRISES ARE PROVED FALSE
        By Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng., January 10, 2020
        https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/the-catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming-cagw-and-the-humanmade-climate-change-crises-are-proved-false.pdf

    • Chaam, all you need is Maxwell’s “Kinetics of Gases”, and Poisson’s Ideal Gas Laws. The resultant Quantum Theory eg Einstein 1917 is icing on the cake….. Quantum Oscillators (no chance of downward warming EM Flux) seal the Deal. Brett Keane NZ.

  3. I predominately access climate ect and WUWT on my Android phone..
    But google always recommends – articles for you – alarmists storeys from NYT, BBC, and the Guardian along with countless renewable companies.

  4. Sorry, Chris Monckton, but the US data show clearly that nationwide lockdowns were the wrong prescription.

    The right Rx was to protect the most vulnerable, but let the least susceptible to continue normal life, with voluntary social distancing, hand washing and other common sensical hygiene.

    The Swedish model, if you will.

    NYC’s subways, its pesthole nursing homes, its unsanitary street people and its brain dead Stalinist mayor and “health” commissioner caused tens of thousands of preventable deaths.

    • “Sorry, Chris Monckton, but the US data show clearly that nationwide lockdowns were the wrong prescription.”

      nope LA versus SF is pretty clear.

      early action in SF days matter

      infection is local
      Lockdown timing is local
      Lockdown COMPLIANCE by humans is local

      you basically cant study this stuff at national levels with so much variation at local levels.

      • Steven, my brother, I’m at a loss as to whatever point you’re trying to make.

        The fact is that CA, TX and FL, states more populous than NY, with more urban populace than NY as well, have suffered less COVID death suggests that lockdown is unwarranted.

        • Fundamentally, eliminating and reducing contact reduces transmission. This is easier to do when done early. Also, local regions are drastically different and it is true that this compounds any analysis. Those points of SM are valid.

          Definitely, CA, TX and FL are doing a better job than NY. We know some of the reasons why. Many questions remain, however.

      • SM,

        It now appears that the first deaths from WuFlu were in Santa Clara County. The virus was circulating long before evil Orange Man tried to limit it.

        Agree however that local action is needed to stop global transmission.

    • I’m still concerned that “cases” are NOT all occurrences.

      Are we really seeing an increase in “cases”, or an increase in “testing”? Increased testing logically would render increased “cases”, as the virus could be more widespread than just the “cases” reveal.

      What “cases” count as “deaths because of”?

      I’m suspicious of the whole manner of assessing this entire situation. I really have little trust in much of the information I’m reading. I don’t trust that “cases” are all there are, and I don’t trust that all “cases” reported as underlying cause of death are truly what they are recorded as being.

      And I’m not on board with the China-is-lying proposal either. It all seems like so much gossip, speculation, dramatization, half truths wholly spun by whatever creative mind is writing the account.

      • There is not the least question that the ChiCom regime covered up and lied. The CPC is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths. At a minimum.

      • More cases are recorded because of more testing and because of more actual cases. It’s difficult to sort out though.

        But definitely, numerous Chinese officials lied and covered up the start of the whole thing and for quite a while thereafter. WHO’s leadership is obviously under the influence of China.

      • I agree Robert, so far this entire cvd-19 panic has been a bizarre case of mass hysteria. Gradually people are concluding that it has been little more than a regular flu season.

        I have no doubt that China lied, so what? Countries lie all the time. But there is no evidence that cvd-19 originated at a wet market in Wuhan last fall. For all we know, cvd-19 could have been infecting and killing people for decades.

        Stay skeptical, Robert.

      • In response to Mr Kernodle, the Office for National Statistics has researched the question whether those listed as dying after having been infected with the Chinese virus died of it rather than merely with it. Their conclusion is that five in six died of it, though nine in ten had comorbidities but would not have died of those comorbidities if they had not been infected.

        • Fair point
          But has the statistics office done detailed research of comorbidities?
          Which comorbitities are over represented?
          This information could be vital in determining who is most at risk, what is the important mechanism of the virus and who to isolate.

    • Mr Tillman is entitled to his opinion, but this column is concerned with facts. The facts are that Sweden’s population density, even in central Stockholm, is one-quarter to one-fifth of that in, say, central London. It is possible to get away without a lockdown in countries with low population densities, provided that lesser control measures are introduced promptly enough. But in London or New York it was not possible to avoid a lockdown once the administrations in both places had left their interventions far too late.

      One lesson to be learned from this pandemic – for there will be others in future – is that cramming people into very high-density, high-rise cities is dangerously foolish, and, for tens of thousands in New York, it has proven fatal. This is one of many respects in which the U.N.’s ridiculous Agenda 2030 program for jamming people into ever-denser cities and emptying the countryside will have to be revised – or preferably junked.

      It would be much more helpful if the instinctual opponents of lockdowns, such as Mr Tillman, were to provide some assistance in developing strategies for ending the lockdowns.

      In Britain, our bureacrats, having at first been far too careless about this dangerous pathogen, have now swung too far in the other direction and are threatening to lock us down for a year or more. What is needed is a more rational approach, which does not petulantly cling to Lockdown vs. No-lockdown – the No-lockdowners deservedly lost that one long ago, for responsible governments could not simply leave their populations to die in very large numbers – but instead develops a sensible policy for ending lockdowns now that, in most territories, they are no longer needed.

      • The FACT is that Sweden has controlled the growth of infection just as well other countries without kneecapping their economy. That may not be clear to CofB who is still looking at a plate of spaghetti to work out the progression of the epidemic, and declares that the “the jury is still out” on Sweden.

        The facts:
        https://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/2019-ncov-log-growth-ie-sw.png

        That does not mean this is necessarily applicable to all other countries as some would seem to wish to imply.

        • Sweden’s numbers are bogus, way to few testing. Their death rate of closed cases is 78% after 2 months of testing. Totally unreliable. Even Italy, France and Spain got their data handling in check after a few weeks. Only UK is still a mess. Therefore you cannot do any meaningful statistics with the data from Sweden. Garbage in, garbage out.

          We will see how bad Sweden will perform in the overall excess mortality in the next weeks. They cannot hide these numbers.

        • No not as well as many other countries.
          Sweden are 19th in the world table, there are about 50 modern countries belwo them.
          Of note are
          South Korea.
          Singapore
          Australia
          Hong Kong
          Japan
          Austria
          Indonesia
          Cuba
          Thailand
          Czechia
          Vietnam
          New Zealand
          to name but a few.

      • Your plots from yesterday of excess deaths in the United Kingdom should have been eye-opening for those who put credence into the reliability of government testing and reporting.

    • NYC and surrounding area are very different from the rest of the country. Crowded subways, crowded busses and a high population density. No reason to believe the prescription for New York is needed elsewhere.

  5. Speaking of Censorship:
    Michael Moore says, “Green Energy is a Fraud”.
    Anyone see this headline anywhere on MSM?
    Me neither:
    .”Story at Never-O-clock”

  6. Good interview with Professor Johan Giesecke explaining the Swedish philosophy on unheard.com
    He forecasts Swedens final death rate will be similar to other European countries and they will not have the long term problem of extricating themselves from lockdowns.

    • Sweden reports about 1/2 workers are doing so at home. Their use of public transportation is also about 1/2 less than usual. One estimate is that Stockholm city streets have only 30% of prior activity.

      Swedish numbers crunchers estimate they will see around 15% unemployment & it’s GDP will decline this year by up to 10%. I have not heard of the government passing multi-billion dollar amount spending to sustain their economy & people’s financial obligations.

      When the anticipated 2nd wave of thus ChiCom virus & it’s assorted mutations sweep around the nations Sweden will probably already have herd immunity. The school children will have brought exposure to their neighbors & young Swedes will live unsaddled by immense national debt. Those Swedes that died will not have done so in vain.

  7. Just out of curiousity what would a law guaranting freedom of speech look like given that
    it is already enshrined in the constitution? And don’t forget that both Google and Facebook
    can also avail themselves of that right (as can any company in the USA) which means they
    are free to add whatever they like to somebody else’s post since once posted the company owns
    the copyright. Freedom of expression also means that google if free to choose which videos on
    youtube are allowed to make money through ads as well. Furthermore the supreme court has
    ruled that algorithms are also protected free speech which means that Facebook, google etc
    are free to promote or hide whatever posts they want thanks to the US bill of rights.

    • We’re agreed on this one.

      What with the disproportionate domination in the “free” press and social media giants in the American marketplace by (un)progressive actors, it’s no wonder frustration concerning that influence is rampant among philosophical disprogressives. But we have to keep our reason even in the face of emotion.

      For example:

      “One of my greatest disappointments with the current Republican party is that, when it held the priceless trifecta of all three houses – White, Senate and Representatives – it did not pass a law guaranteeing free speech and preventing the Communists (or ‘Democrats’, or whatever they like to call themselves) from interfering with the constitutional right of free speech.”

      I’m not sure that’s a Republican idea, if by “Republican,” you mean “conservative.”

      There’s already a fundamental law guaranteeing private citizens’ speech be free from government interference, the First Amendment. If Republicans were to pass a subsidiary law requiring private citizens to publish, without comment, content with which that citizen disagreed, then isn’t it true that this law just expressly contradicted the First Amendment guarantee of freedom from government interference where speech is concerned?

      E.g., if by the above you mean that Farcebook and Gaggle, both private U.S. citizens (SCOTUS 1886), would be required by state edict to guarantee Dr. Lehr’s piece to be published on their platform without their desired commentary, then is it not the case that you’ve just violated the fundamental constitutional liberty for that private citizen to comment as they wish, and worse, this even within their own platform they own and operate?

      What would prevent SCOTUS, assuming an originalist majority, from striking down such a law?

      • How interesting it is that there is such opposition to free speech among some commenters here.

        Farcebook, Google and YouTube have a position of market dominance. If they allow only their viewpoint to prevail, or if they subject opinions with which they disagree to restrictions and censorships that are not equally applied to their own narrow, largely Communistic viewpoint, they are interfering with freedom of speech.

        There is nothing to prevent the far-left executives who control these massive entities from posting up their own videos or Farcebook posts giving the Communist Party line on the Chinese virus. But they should not be entitled to suppress or tamper with or demonetize points of view that happen to run counter to the generally Communist Party line that they so fervently espouse.

        • But they should not be entitled to suppress or tamper with or demonetize points of view…

          They should be perfectly so entitled as long as they are made to accept that by doing so they become publishers and not platforms. Make them face the responsibilities of being publishers by removing any protections they enjoy compared to established publishers. Let them face all the libel cases and copyright enforcements from which they are currently shielded.

          They’ve chosen to defecate on their platform cake. Make them eat it.

        • How interesting it is that there is such opposition to free speech among some commenters here.

          So we’re agreed after all.

          Farcebook, Google and YouTube have a position of market dominance…

          I see what you mean now. Farcebook, Gargle and Scr*wYouTube have the most market share in their space, thus they ought to be required to share it with those who don’t. From those who are able, to those who need?

          See, you’re not the only one who can put the match to prefabbed scarecrows. But I appreciate the complement.

          • “Farcebook, Gargle and Scr*wYouTube have the most market share in their space, thus they ought to be required to share it with those who don’t. From those who are able, to those who need?”

            They are able, but they are now, thanks their OK quality and to network effects, enthroned for life. Competition thus can’t displace them, or even put a dent in them. They are, de facto, our public square, and they are profiting mightily from that.

            The public interest is that the public square be neutral. This would not involve taking from those who are able, just regulating their behavior, currently biased by factional pressures.

          • Roger:

            The public interest is that the public square be neutral. This would not involve taking from those who are able, just regulating their behavior, currently biased by factional pressures.

            You may have missed the last paragraph where I stipulate that what you’ve opined against is the strawman follow-up to MoB’s original strawman reply.

            Nevertheless, if I allow your premise that there exists a public interest regarding private speech, and further that that means “the public square be neutral,” then it looks like you contradict yourself.

            Under your assumptions, in order to make the public square neutral the state must regulate the behavior of those currently dominating the private marketplace. In this context this in turn requires removing from the privateers their ability to speak freely regardless of bias. So against your claim that nothing is taken from the dominant private player in order to regulate private free speech, rather the state must take away the freedom of the dominant private player to speak as it wishes on the property that it owns and operates. Consistency with your assumptions requires that Michael Mann’s work should by rule of law be published here without comment. After all, WUWT is the dominant player in its particular space, and that space includes climate science communication and publication. True or false?

            Mind you, this also presupposes I grant your premise that there’s a public interest in allowing the state to regulate private speech in the first place. I don’t think that’s wise. Such a premise certainly isn’t a constitutional one. The First Amendment regulates the state, not the citizen. I’d like to see you how you’d accomplish regulating the private speech of citizens via the First Amendment, if that’s how you propose to do it.

            Seems like if you don’t cite the authority of the First Amendment, you don’t have a case at all. If you do cite it, you contradict its original intent.

            In my view, the overarching public interest with regard to private speech is not some ethereal “neutrality” continually (re)defined by the state, but rather freedom from the state’s intervention at all. Inevitably, if the state is involved then the standard of neutrality blurs according to the philosophical bent of those currently wielding majority power. What else results from this except a continual chaotic scenario where the rules concerning private speech exist in constant flux?

            No thanks.

            I’ll take a bunch of illiberal MoB’s heading up private U.S. companies that dominate social media “suppressing” my opinions on their limited platform products, rather than the full force and power of the United States Federal Government suppressing my opinions anywhere and everywhere there’s any place to speak. And this all the days of the week.

          • Sy, you are one again ignoring the difference between being a publisher and being a platform. If they’re publishers, then all you say about their rights to free speech holds. But if they’re a platform, you are totally off base. Their speech doesn’t apply. As a platform they’re acting as a public service and if they’re discriminating against segments of the public, that *can* be regulated by the law, as businesses open to the public in the south discovered several decades ago. No conservative speech allow is no different than no colors allowed.

          • John:

            Sy, you are one again ignoring the difference between being a publisher and being a platform.

            On the contrary, I don’t think I’ve even ignored it one [sic]. What’s been ignored have been my arguments against the government regulating private speech, and this by you.

            As a platform they’re acting as a public service and if they’re discriminating against segments of the public, that *can* be regulated by the law, as businesses open to the public in the south discovered several decades ago.

            Ok well if you could point to where I said they CAN’T be regulated by the law that’d be helpful to everyone, because I don’t recall saying anything about “coulda,” instead I said something about “shoulda?”

            I hope you’ll agree with me that those two things aren’t the same.

            Anyway, thanks for your textbook example of falsum ex condigno. I should’ve realized all along that philosophical belief systems should have a right to YouTube like biological Blacks should have a right to ride on public transportation, eat at white-owned restaurants, drink from the same water fountains as whites, and all the rest.

            Whew! If only I’d commented on this subject sooner, I could’ve seen the light shining bright under your bushel.

            🙂

      • Sy, Farcebook, Gaggle, et al, currently are treated in law not as a publisher but as a platform (a “virtual townsquare”) with the protections that afford them re liability and litigation. By “commenting as they wish” and censoring content they are no longer a platform bur rather a defacto publisher and should thus not be entitled to the protections of a platform that they hide behind.

        Basically they should decide what they want to be: a publisher (entitled to “comment as they wish” ie editorialize) or a platform (in which case they don’t get to deface other peoples published works with their own editorializing). They shouldn’t get to claim to be the one while acting like they’re the other.

    • Furthermore the supreme court has
      ruled that algorithms are also protected free speech which means that Facebook, google etc
      are free to promote or hide whatever posts they want thanks to the US bill of rights

      in which case they become publishers instead of platforms and should not be allowed the legal protections over content they currently get for being platforms.

  8. An observation: an algorithm may be executed by a human being, or a committee of same. A computer is not required, but is only a later addition. Why do we seem to believe that social media censorship algorithms are executed by computer software created by faceless programmers?

  9. Christopher,
    You said, “On the question whether Sweden should have taken more steps to prevent transmission of the pathogen, the jury is still out.” However, the US, Ireland, and Canada all have death CGRs greater than Sweden! Three countries using lockdown versus social distancing strongly suggests that the primary benefit is from social distancing and hygiene rather than economy destruction.

    • Mr Spencer should compare like with like. As the head posting establishes, the mortality rate per million population in Sweden is very considerably higher than the rates in the other Scandinavian countries, all of which hvae lockdowns.

      One should also not minimize the extent to which Sweden is itself locked down, albeit that the lockdown is voluntary. Carriage on public transport has halved; economic activity is down by a tenth.

      • It may be just a matter of timing, Sweden will have it’s peak then a decline. In the case of lockdown countries cases may plateau for as long as it takes for heard immunity to establish then decline.

      • and once again the cases of Corona for no lock down Sweden are about the same for Norway and Denmark with the same population as Sweden combined.

        What is it you are actually trying to say or prove , Mr Monckton.

        And again no mention of Japan.

      • Christopher
        Certainly the Scandinavian countries have a lot more in common historically and culturally than they do with the US. Perhaps a little more so with Canada and Ireland. However, the Scandinavian countries are not all peas in the same pod because the Swedish culture and government did not go along with the strong lockdowns of its neighbors. That alone raises the question of how to properly “compare like with like.” The case has not been made that cultural similarities are more important than the practices instituted to restrain the epidemic. None of the countries in question have the equivalent of NYC, which is primarily driving what is happening in the US. The US has states without lockdowns whose infection and death rates are so low as to not even warrant mention by Eschenbach.

        This appears to be primarily an urban problem where severe lockdowns might be justified for certain regions and/or metropolitan areas, but certainly not entire countries. Certainly not for the US.

      • “the mortality rate per million population in Sweden is very considerably higher than the rates in the other Scandinavian countries”

        But I’ve read that Sweden counts deaths WITH Covid-19 as Covid-19 deaths, but Norway et al. don’t. That must make Sweden look worse than it really is. (Or does it? We’ll know in a few months, I hope.)

  10. Thank you m’lud, and thank God I live in Australia (far from by birthplace in Tottenham, UK)! Only 75 or so dead to date here out of 25 million. Remoteness (and being an island continent) has its advantages. However I tend to think that the currently known key characteristics of this virus (e.g. quite contagious, about 50% of those infected are asymptomatic, fairly low mortality rate) point to this critter becoming endemic globally before any vaccine can be developed, distributed and implemented. I am over 70 with no co-morbidities, and am not fretting about this. Am I wrong?

  11. The trouble with ‘fact checkers’ is the people who are often interested in doing that kind of thing are usually completely hopeless at it.

    Wasn’t it Mark Twain who once said ‘I wouldn’t want to be a member of an organisation who was willing to have me as a member’.

    • don’t trust the socialist data from the women of Sweden. Same pride in socialism as the chinese

      • While Sweden is worthy of being mocked for their various “woke fallacies,” they’re not nearly as “socialist” as most Americans seem to think.

        As for your comparison with China:
        Let me know when Sweden puts over a million members of some minority group in concentration camps.
        Let me know when Sweden imprisons members of some weird religious group, DNA tests them and then uses them as a reservoir for forced organ donation … to the tune of about 60,000 victims/year.
        Let me know when Sweden starts disappearing news reporters and negative weibo/twitter writers, or arresting doctors for merely warning their colleagues of a new virus.
        And I’m just getting started. Want more examples?

        The CCP is not actually “proud of their socialism” per se.
        The CCP is an established bunch of bureaucrats that have learned to profit largely by their positions and are motivated by a desire to maintain their power, any particular philosophy be damned.

    • Eliza, who seems to be acting as a shill for Chinese Communism, says I am “sort of admitting” that I may have been wrong about Sweden from the start. On the contrary, if she were not so obsessed by her ideology and spent a little more time reading than gabbing, she would have noticed that right from the start I have included Sweden as one of the dozen territories we monitor daily, and have frequently discussed this interesting counterexample to lockdowns.

      I have also pointed out, correctly, that central Stockholm has a population density one-quarter to one-fifth that of central London, and that if one compares like with like – i.e., the Scandinavian countries – the Swedish death rate per million population is very considerably higher than that in other Scandinavian countries.

      I have also pointed out that the key statistic in the early stages of any pandemic is the daily compound rate of growth in confirmed cases. One of the many advantages of keeping track of that number is that, once it falls below around 2 or 3 per cent a day, it becomes possible cautiously to bring lockdowns to an end in those territories whose population densities and late interventions compelled their introduction.

      • What has Belgium done to offend the fates?

        Higher population density than Sweden but not dramatically so.
        Population probably not older than northern Italy

        But world leader in deaths /1m population, up there with New Jersey [but at least lower than New York]

        • Maybe Belgium counts “deaths with” as “deaths due to” and other countries don’t.

      • Christopher
        You said, “… the Swedish death rate per million population is very considerably higher than that in other Scandinavian countries.” That is not unexpected. The intent of lockdowns was to flatten the curve severely. It is less important that the current Swedish rate is currently higher than its neighbors, than what the total per capita deaths are after the epidemic subsides, and what the condition of the economies are afterwards.

        To summarize, the current death rates in Sweden are not as bad as in several countries using severe lockdowns, and the final criteria for the optimal approach will be the state of the economies and the total per capita deaths after the epidemic is over.

  12. Thinga – no he (Mark Train) was the guy that said ‘A lie will travel around the world before the truth gets its boots on.’ He was a journalist!
    The other guy was Groucho Marx iirc, but lots of others claim this quote at theirs…

  13. German Newspaper Boils China

    Germany’s largest newspaper responded with a scathing video after China wrote an open letter saying it’s “pretty bad style to blame” them for the novel coronavirus pandemic.

    The feud began after Bild asked “whether China should pay for the massive economic damage the coronavirus is inflicting worldwide,” German journalist Julian Reichelt said in the video. Bild determined, in an article titled “What China Owes Us,” that the country owes Germany the equivalent of almost $162 billion, the Jerusalem Post reported.

    “I followed your reporting on the corona pandemic in general and China’s alleged guilt in particular today,” Wednesday’s open letter from China’s embassy spokeswoman Tao Lil read according to the Jerusalem Post. “Apart from the fact that we consider it a pretty bad style to blame a country for a pandemic that is affecting the whole world and then to present an explicit account of alleged Chinese debts to Germany, the article ignores some essential facts.”

    Reichelt, Bild’s editor-in-chief, responded to Chinese President Xi Jinping with a video that ripped apart the country’s communist leader and how the virus has been handled by them:

    “You [Xi], your government and your scientists had to know long ago that coronavirus is highly infectious, but you left the world in the dark about it. Your top experts didn’t respond when Western researchers asked to know what was going on in Wuhan. You were too proud and too nationalistic to tell the truth, which you felt was a national disgrace, and which now became a global disaster. You rule by surveillance. You wouldn’t be president without surveillance. You monitor everything, every citizen, but you refuse to monitor the diseased wet markets in your country. You shut down every newspaper and website that is critical of your rule, but not the stalls where bat soup is sold. You are not only monitoring your people, you are endangering them – and with them, the rest of the world. A nation that is not innovative, does not invent anything. This is why you have made your country the world champion in intellectual property theft. China enriches itself with the inventions of others, instead of inventing on its own. The reason China does not innovate and invent is that you don’t let the young people in your country think freely. China’s greatest export hit – that nobody wanted to have, but which has nevertheless gone around the world – is corona. China is now known as a surveillance state that infected the world with a deadly disease and that this will be Xi’s political legacy. Labs in Wuhan, China are researching coronaviruses without adhering to the highest standards of safety. Why are your toxic laboratories not as secure as your prisons for political prisoners? Would you like to explain this to the grieving widows, daughters, sons, husbands, parents of corona victims all over the world? In your country, your people are whispering about you. Your power is crumbling. You have created an inscrutable, non-transparent China. Corona will be your political end, sooner or later.”

    https://www.facebook.com/julian.reichelt.3/videos/10156753445792016/?d=n

    • I’m surprised that that video is allowed to remain. I was beginning to suspect that FB was under the influence of the CCP.

  14. Christopher Monckton’s posts bring to mind a Tibetan mantra that he should repeat, loudly, every day. It should be repeated at least five times very quickly. It goes like this:
    ‘Owah tafu liam’

    • Yes, the daily serving of regurgitated spaghetti masquerading as analysis is getting quite tiresome.

      This inept analysis has not developed one bit since the first edition. Only his mistaken and spurious claims of what it means change often: from one erroneous interpretation to another.

      • He comes across to me as someone who is aiming to be the poster child of the subreddit/ I am very smart.
        I follow your comments. They are very reasoned.

    • So, cursing ones ancestors is highly offensive in Mandarin. So what? Being called a dog is highly offensive in English.

  15. Dear Lord Monckton, please keep writing these articles. They give me hope. When I was doing Mechanical Sciences (aka Engineering) at Trinity in the late 1960s, I thought that some of the mathematicians were a bit strange. Actually, some of them were very strange. But you make total sense. Thank you.
    I did supervisions with someone named Merlin. You might have met him in the Lords. Old Healeys with rusted out floors. He had a throat mike linked to an amp and a speaker near the radiator. He also had a wolf whistle device. We weren’t very PC 🙂

    • I am most grateful to RichardX for his kind words. I do my best to provide objective information and dispassionate analysis. More to come tomorrow.

      • tomorrow maybe some actual data on who has died “with” the virus or “of’ the virus. You know, actual facts!

    • A friend of mine worked as librarian at the then newly opened Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematics at Cambridge. She once noticed a somewhat dishevelled worried-looking bloke staring through the windows, sitting in the sill, than at a table, then wandering about all the time looking as if in pain. After this had gone on for the better part of an hour she decided to ask him whether something was wrong, a question that greatly puzzled him. No, nothing wrong with him, he was just thinking. My friend would agree that ‘strange’ doesn’t quite cut it.

  16. Yesterday, Stefan Lofven, the Swedish PM, announced that he was “ready to introduce more restrictions if needed.”

    It is clear that Sweden is not out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination. The case history data is bunkum, since it is now, as in many other nations, delimited by testing capacity. The daily death statistics however show an inexorable linear rise, which translates into an exponential on the cumulative curve. Daily deaths are doubling every 5 or 6 days with no sign of any tailover to date. These statistics very specifically include only confirmed tested hospitalised cases of COVID-19; they specifically exclude deaths in care homes and private homes.

    Some of you here seem to believe that Sweden is in the magic position of having found a solution which causes only small damage to the economy, in relative terms at least, AND of now having the benefit of being a long way towards herd immunity. The first part is probably true. The second part definitely is not.

    One of the intelligent things which Sweden has done is to reserve some of its testing capacity for random sampling. As of one week ago, these tests suggested (just) 2.5% of the Stockholm region had been infected. As of today, if the death rate is a reasonable indicator of infection growth, this number is likely to have grown to around 7% infected. Given that this represents a Stockholm sample, it is safe to assume that the national infection rate is a lot lower than this. Even with large error bars on this estimate, therefore, it should be apparent that the virus is not going to run out of susceptible victims in Sweden in the near term.

    So while most western nations are looking at some way of cautiously easing their foot off the brake, it seems entirely possible that Sweden will need to consider more radical restrictions in the near future, given the growth statistics and the current pressure on ICU bed availability. The Swedish authorities noted a little over a week ago:-

    “People who are especially at-risk due to factors such as old age or underlying conditions may not be admitted to intensive care if doctors judge that they would be unlikely to survive the treatment (this kind of assessment, or something similar, exists in every country). As of April 14th, there was still spare capacity in Sweden’s intensive care units.”

    Since that April 14th date the number of active cases in Sweden has increased by 35%, with commensurate increase in ICU demand. Sweden today has 480 ICU beds and 515 patients hospitalised in “serious, critical position”.

    None of the above should be seen as my criticising what Sweden has done so far. It was and remains a “worth-failing-at” experiment in a world of uncertainty, where there are no easy answers.

    However, I would have to support Lord Monckton, when he claims that “the jury is still out on Sweden”.

    • Correction of a really dumb statement.
      I wrote:- ” The daily death statistics however show an inexorable linear rise, which translates into an exponential on the cumulative curve.”

      That should have been:- ” The daily death statistics however show an inexorable linear rise, which translates into a quadratic rise on the cumulative curve.”

    • Their numbers are not a lot different. The bonus for Sweden is they shouldn’t be hit by a second wave that will befall the lock down countries.

      Japan with no lock down has done very well.

  17. Re: Chinese culpability

    My question, which I have not seen discussed elsewhere is: where were our intelligence agencies?

    So what if China lied and the WHO helped them cover up? When did it become US policy to stake national security and the safety of our citizens on the blind acceptance of what other countries tell us? What happened to the second half of Regan’s famous “trust, but verify” dictum?

    All countries lie and pretty soon international organizations start to behave like countries. There’s no excuse for not verifying critical information, even if it comes from a trusted source.

    COVID-19 has now done far more damage to the US than 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina combined. If China was covering up a much wider and more dangerous epidemic than they reported, why didn’t our intelligence agencies know that?

    • Good questions that need to be asked, along with others, and hopefully answered openly. How and why do they seem so prone to failure?

    • Alan
      I have been asking from the beginning why there has been such an extreme response to something resembling another flu strain, but about which little was known initially. In retrospect, the symptoms appear to be uniquely different from typical seasonal flues. Which leads me to the answer to your question. The highest levels of government may have known more about this than they could publicly admit both out of fear of panicking the public, and concern about telling the Chinese about our intelligence gathering capabilities. That is, if we released details that the Chinese thought that only they knew, some Chinese scientists might disappear.

    • “If China was covering up a much wider and more dangerous epidemic than they reported, why didn’t our intelligence agencies know that?”

      About a year ago it came out that a dozen of the CIA’s agents in China had gone silent and were presumed to have been captured by the government there.

  18. More evidence that extreme social distancing measures aren’t necessary to flatten the peak is the analysis done by numerous researchers showing that the rate of infections and deaths rise and fall according to the same pattern in every country the virus has struck, regardless of varying population densities, testing rates, case levels, mortality rates, etc. and in spite of the severity of the lockdowns they’ve imposed and when they imposed them in the life-cycle of the outbreak.

    This is nicely illustrated in a created by a skeptic on Twitter, which maps the rise and fall of daily deaths in England and Sweden, having adjusted for the fact that Sweden’s are about 10 times lower than England’s. As you can see, the pattern is almost identical, even though Sweden has not imposed a lockdown:

    https://twitter.com/Phoenix4419/status/1252975322523410432/photo/1

    Before anybody takes another swipe at Sweden because they refuse to bend the knee to the Daily Mail and the rest of the international doom-mongers by not turning their country into a giant Neo-fascist prison state, the graph above has already accounted for every variable including that favorite standby of the doomsters: lower population density.

    The Swedes have taken the view that they cannot avoid risks and hide away at home and hope not to die. They know a second wave is possible, and by not imposing a lockdown there will be more exposure to the virus now, which will make them more immune to future virus infections. In the meantime, besides some sensible adjustments, normal life continues.

    The main sin of Sweden is to show up the failure of lockdowns to do anything much about virus infections, which makes all the pro-lockdown politicians and the shrieking hysterical British media doom-mongers look stupid.

    • Sasha,
      Read my comment just above. Sweden is facing a far more immediate problem than a second wave. Its facilities are being increasingly overwhelmed today. The twitter plot that you show is very misleading, but not intentionally so. It shows an apparent peak in daily fatalities, but this arises only because of a weekend reporting issue. Have a look at the daily fatalities for Sweden here and you will see that they continue to show an inexorable linear rise with no sign of peaking.
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

  19. New Tang Dynasty News (NTD) out of Canada provides interesting insider perspectives on China.

    It seems, the Wuhan Institute of Virology virus is wreaking havoc in the far north province of Harbin. Unfortunately, the CCP has a much greater tolerance for its suffering populous than any Western nation.

    This tolerance combined with a stated desire to lead the planet, requires a focused response to Beijing’s subterfuge and misinformation. While we are intently focused on saving each life, the CCP is probing for weakness and planning to profit from our misfortune.

    I just stumbled onto NTD on YouTube and only know they clam to be operated by the Falun Gong movement. Whether this religion is truly an organic movement, or a Taiwanese sponsored “religion” is unknown.

    To be sure, any unsanctioned news out of China erases the States’ asymmetrical advantage in controlling the keyboards of the press. FWIW, NTD News is worth a look with an eye towards concerted distribution.

  20. I just read, that smokers are less hit by Corona, seems, the virus can’t hook on, because of nicotine is placed there.
    They will start studies with nicotine pavement for medical personal and patients too.

    • In a related story, some pharmacists in the US are demanding that prisons turn over their supplies of lethal injection drugs, on hand to execute condemned prisoners, to help “deal with” the corona virus pandemic.
      No, srsly…s’true.

      • https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/doctors-execution-drugs-covid-19-patients-70264297

        “some pharmacists” being a grand total of “seven pharmacists, public health experts, and intensive care unit doctors” (I suspect the majority of the seven are more advocates than pharmacists or doctors, with a history of opposing the death penalty. Indeed, Dr. Joel Zivot, one of the medical professionals who signed the letter and the only one named and quoted in the above linked ABC article, has previously spoken out against the death penalty referring to it as “reckless and cruel” just last year in response to the Supreme Courts ruling on Bucklew v. Precythe).

      • In otherwords, in case I wasn’t clear, it seems clear from Dr. Joel Zivot involvement that it has little to do with the pandemic and everything to do with using the pandemic to push their agendas.

        • “…using the pandemic to push their agendas.”

          Seems to be a lot of that going around.

  21. Right now we are using the wrong metrics to decide if lock downs are successful or not.

    Right now we are using as the scoring mechanism

    1) how many people are dying per day (fudged too high because many people who have died “with” the corona-virus are counted as dying “from the corona-virus.)

    2) how many people are contracting the virus based on being tested (this number is artificially increasing because we are testing more as time goes on).

    Including in the scoring numbers should be:

    How many people are dying caused by the lock-downs, from not getting proper medical treatments being hospitals aren’t doing much else other then corona-virus. And how poverty, drug abuse, depression from the lock out adds to deaths. I would assume this total number is way more than the approx.. 2 deaths a day recorded in San Diego County from the Corona-virus. I would assume it is at least 100 deaths a day if not way more indirectly and directly caused from the lock-down, based on 3.3 million people living in San Diego County. That in itself should end the lock-downs.

    On top of that, a death of a 90 year old that has many underlying conditions should not be equal to a younger person dying from say not being able to get her mammogram. Do 15 old people dying from the corona-virus equal one young heath person dying caused by the lock-down?

    On top of that, lock downs don’t save many lives from Corona-virus, just postpones the deaths by flatting the curve. Pushing the deaths out to a future date.

    Progress towards herd immunity should be another way of scoring success. Ie; if a city, state, or country has say 35% herd immunity, then they should have way less deaths in the future because it has already gone through a large % of the population. Lock-downs just slow down the progress towards herd immunity, but don’t save many lives.

    Another variable used to scoring the success of lock-downs should be a misery index. Ie; how people are unhappy with the lock-downs and will translate to shortening lives and add to poverty.

    • don
      These kinds of social programs should always include a cost/benefit analysis, not just a focus on trying to reduce deaths from a novel disease.

    • Based on the survey, doctors rate convalescent plasma the highest. What are the prospects for isolating, characterizing and synthesizing these antibodies?

      • Regeneron is said to be working on an antibody treatment, although the last report I saw indicated it would not be ready for human testing until the fall.
        Of course, just because someone makes something and gets it into human testing, is no assurance it will work.
        But I think there is a lot of people who could potentially donate plasma.
        The problem with this is the cost and the scaling…it cannot be mass produced in a factory if it comes from people who must go someplace and make a donation.

        In an unrelated, or peripherally related news story, I was just reading that analysis of the connection between infection rates and a old vaccine for TB, shows the correlation is very weak, but that it may be related to the fact that when vaccines are given, they are typically given as part of a series against many illnesses.
        There is no theory on how a vaccine for a bacterium could provide protection for a virus, but if BCT vaccine is highly correlated with MMR vaccine, this could be a more easily explained factor.
        There is about a 25% correlation between antigen for corona virus and the antigens in the MMR vaccine. According to this idea, it could also possibly explain why children are not getting this virus very often. Almost all kids get MMR vaccine.

        • Nicholas
          You said, “… it would not be ready for human testing until the fall.” Until the fall of what, society? 🙂 There is a reason that the seasons used to be capitalized, just as the months and days of the week are.

          • Thank you Clyde, and right you are.
            I usually remember to capitalize those sorts of cases.
            Hard to say for sure, but I think there is a reasonable chance the Fall will come before the fall.

        • Huge if true. What you are saying is that the vaccine provides short time protection for MMR/corona and knowing even teens don’t have that full MMR/corona immunity, which proves what the crook MMR is.

  22. “If China was covering up a much wider and more dangerous epidemic than they reported, why didn’t our intelligence agencies know that?”

    Odds are that they already know most of everything on this issue. Are they going to tell you or me? No way. It would endanger their operatives. My guess is that certain politicians have been briefed.

    If I am right, relentless pressure on China to come clean (and/or a transparent investigation) will continue. If China has something to hide they will refuse to be investigated.

    Simple really. No numbers needed.

    M

  23. Oh Mr Monckton, I can only wonder at the gems you will come out with tomorrow.

    “In a heavily locked down county the virus spread right thru it”
    5.21 mins –

  24. New York researcher says preliminary results of hydroxychloroquine study are ready, but state hasn’t released them

    “”We have reviewed several hundred medical records of Covid patients at this point in over 20 hospitals and done a preliminary analysis,” David Holtgrave, the lead researcher, said Wednesday.

    Doctors and patients anxiously await the results of studies like this one to guide them toward the most effective therapies for Covid-19.”

    The New York study has been particularly anticipated because of its size — some 1,600 subjects — and because it’s sponsored by the state and done by a respected group of epidemiologists at the University at Albany.

    “https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/new-york-researcher-says-preliminary-results-of-hydroxychloroquine-study-are-ready-but-state-hasnt-released/article_7e0cdee2-78f0-53d2-a156-d0b5d9e84dd9.html”

  25. Mass population testing is very important because people who have antibodies and do not have a virus are a natural barrier to the virus. This can help governments make decisions about what to do next.

  26. Let’s hope in his new fact free article tomorrow, Mr Monckton, includes the deaths from those who cannot make into hospital , doubtful as he likes to cherry pick his facts as always.

    “England and Wales have experienced a record number of deaths in a single week, with 6,000 more than average for this time of year. The figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the highest weekly death total in England and Wales — 16,387 — since recording began in 2005, but many were not recorded as being related to Covid-19.

    “Only half of those extra numbers were attributed to the coronavirus. Experts said they were shocked by the rise, particularly in non-Covid-19 deaths, and expressed concern that the lockdown might be having unintended consequences for people’s health.

    “There are fears that patients are not seeking help for life-threatening conditions, including heart attacks, because they are worried about catching coronavirus in hospital.

    “Experts said that conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure may also be proving harder to manage during the lockdown.

    “The latest figures are for the week ending April 3. They record certified deaths throughout the country, rather than only those recorded in hospitals. ” [People are dying in their homes, just as occurred in Italy] –London Times

  27. Here is a comment which I made the other day. This has to do with an illness which I had around late November and into December.

    “I have been telling a somewhat similar story for the last several months. Only I first started feeling some effects in late November, runny nose, a strong feeling of nausea shortly after getting up in the morning that would come and go during the course of the day. Then headaches which have always been rare for me. In mid December what ever it was slammed me hard. My left shoulder ached and my neck muscles were tight.

    Shorty after that I talked with my brother who lives in the Bay Area. To my surprise he starts the conversation about how he just got out of the hospital 4 days prior, after 10 days in after suffering a heart attack. Amazed I describe what I went through, and he attests to having feeling similar symptoms such as I describe above. He also states that his son had the worst flu of his life just prior to his father’s illness.

    Now for a fascinating 3rd tangential piece of information for possible Wuhan flu in California in November 2019. I went into town today. At the pet store I happened to mention to the clerk who was busy wiping the large counter areas that we were lucky to live in one of the few counties with no cases. She replied that the claim was most likely wrong. She then described how her son along with the entire local HS football team had come down with some type of illness in mid to late November. She started to describe some of the effects when I stopped her and described the effects which I had felt, and it all matched. Looking forward to getting tested at the local CVS when they get set up. …”.

    Also of interest, one night I woke up and I felt short of breathe. Maybe in early January. I reached over to open the window further as if I needed fresher air. I might have come close to having a real problem, but then I received several Indian herbal remedies which I had ordered, and they straightened me out by energizing my body somehow.

    A note on my brother and his son. They both get a yearly flu shot. So what infected them in late November? The son would have been a prime candidate because he has taken over in the old family business in North Beach. They get a large number of Asian tourists daily. When I had that phone call with my brother around the 3rd week of December I advised him to stay away from the restaurant. That was my outlook on the threat emanating from China in late December.

  28. Here’s a long China-exculpatory piece, from America’s National Public Radio, in need of a critique:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident
    Virus Researchers Cast Doubt On Theory Of Coronavirus Lab Accident
    NPR: April 23, 2020 7:08 AM ET
    GEOFF BRUMFIEL EMILY KWONG

    “The assessment, made by more than half-a-dozen scientists familiar with lab accidents and how research on coronaviruses is conducted, casts doubt on recent claims that a mistake may have unleashed the coronavirus on the world.”

  29. OK, reading a few more of these articles I see now that Monckton is being deliberately obtuse regarding the stubborn and unscientific use of the term “Chinese virus”, and is either acting unknowingly as a US neocon useful idiot or is simply a US neocon stooge.

    Re Monckton’s quote “Chinese Communist Party’s criminal late reporting and false information about its virus”…
    sorry, that’s an outright lie, as this well-researched and superiorly reasoned (sorry Monckton) article outlines:

    “Given these dramatic Chinese actions and the international headlines that they generated, the current accusations by Trump Administration officials that China had attempted to minimize or conceal the serious nature of the disease outbreak is so ludicrous as to defy rationality. In any event, the record shows that on December 31st, the Chinese had already alerted the World Health Organization to the strange new illness, and Chinese scientists published the entire genome of the virus on Jan. 12th, allowing diagnostic tests to be produced worldwide.
    Unlike other nations, China had received no advance warning of the nature or existence of the deadly new disease, and therefore faced unique obstacles. But their government implemented public health control measures unprecedented in the history of the world and managed to almost completely eradicate the disease with merely the loss of a few thousand lives. Meanwhile, many other Western countries such as the US, Italy, Spain, France, and Britain dawdled for months and ignored the potential threat, and have now suffered well over 100,000 dead as a consequence, with the toll still rapidly mounting. For any of these nations or their media organs to criticize China for its ineffectiveness or slow response represents an absolute inversion of reality.”
    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-our-coronavirus-catastrophe-as-biowarfare-blowback/

    • The Chinese purchased 2 billion face masks in the first 2 weeks of January. China is the major producer of those items. So they intentionally shorted the world market at a time when they knew what was about to happen to the rest of the world. They also sucked up most other med equipment.

      They intentionally let people leave the nation at a time when they knew that they had a dangerous problem.

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