By Rud Istvan
The world continues to learn about this sometimes deadly new zoonotic virus. We know now from NYC that it is disproportionately serious in males (61% of tested symptomatics), more fatal in people over 65 (63%), and is disproportionately lethal (84%) in people with especially the comorbidities hypertension (55%), diabetes (35%) and obesity (50% of serious/critical [s/c] hospital admissions in NOLA, under 60 years old 2x s/c in NYC). More on the significance of these facts is developed below.
We know from two inadvertent extreme ‘lack of social distancing’ “experiments”, Diamond Princess (DP) and CVN71 (Theodore Roosevelt, TR), that only about 15% (TR) to 19% (DP, with several more weeks of exposure) ever test positive for the virus. That means that something like 80-85% of people have an immune system that seems to handle the virus effortlessly even in highly infectious, high viral titer circumstances–so that not even a positive viral shedding test develops. This could just be a very good innate immune system; it could also be a primed active immune system (i.e. the population was NOT naïve). A very plausible explanation hypothesis is developed below with important ramifications for opening countries from extreme lockdown measures.
We know from those same two ‘experiments’ that between 45% (DP) and 55% (TR) test positive but are asymptomatic. Now, some of that is just the now known incubation period with a mean ~5 days from infection and 97.5% displaying symptoms within 11.5 days. But we know also from South Korea that of the ~10600 now tested positive but asymptomatic and quarantined 14 days, that ~20% NEVER developed even mild symptoms. This is likely also explained by the naiveté hypothesis developed below.
In what follows, the primary technical sources are the Journal of Virology on coronaviruses, ncbi.nlm.NIH.gov for science publications, www.CDC.gov, and for clinical morbidity a very new ‘anecdotal’ survey article at Sciencemag.org.
Mitigation
The CDC says that there are four common cold coronavirus serotypes causing something between 15 and 35% of all common colds, (about 5% more are DNA adenoviruses that do not mutate much so immunity to them is long lasting), with the remainder caused by about 100 different rhinovirus serotypes.
For all three common cold virus types, the route of transmission is known to be cough, touching (handshake after cough), or hand face contact (cough droplets to a surface, touch surface, then touch mouth, nose, eyes.) This is why common colds are only weakly seasonal while flu is strongly seasonal. That is why for COVID-19, social distancing, frequent hand washing, and consciously NOT face touching ‘work’. From a transmission perspective, Wuhan is ‘just’ another coronavirus.
An aside argued in rumination #4 and in other previous comments to others. Observational fact: flu is strongly seasonal, common colds are not. The reason lies in route of transmission. Inhaling infected aspirate principally spreads flu (aspirate particles are less than 5 microns). These aspirate particles dry out rapidly in dry indoor winter air (high surface to volume ratio) and remain circulating for many hours. In summer humidity, they don’t dry out and sink ‘rapidly’ to where they cannot be inhaled. Winter contact route of flu transmission exists but is distinctly secondary according to my personal communications with Dr. Fauci summer of 2009. Anything less than an N95 respirator will not prevent you from catching flu. Quarantine is ineffective. Annual flu shot is advised.
Now, there are two Covid-19 possibilities. Dr. Fauci might be right that it could be seasonal like flu, implying primary infection route would be inhaled aspirate. In which case, all the public mask nonsense is pointless. Or, it is ‘just’ another corona virus, the three recommended mitigation measures work, and public masks are still nonsense–unless you have active mild symptoms: dry cough plus fever >100.4F. In which case you should quarantine yourself and not be in public even with a mask.
Lack of transmission under extreme circumstances in 80-85% of cases
The four common cold coronaviruses are: 229E and NL63 in the ‘alpha’ serotype group, and OC43 and HKU1 in the ‘beta’ serotype group. Wuhan is also in the beta serotype group. All four common cold coronavirus spike proteins have two binding sites. In all four, the S1-CTD site binds the ACE2 receptor on epithelial cells such as line the nose, mouth, throat, and lungs. So their spike proteins, just like Wuhan, ‘key’ to that cellular receptor lock as well (as after being fully humanized) to another that varies. S1-CTD is a natural target for antibodies.
My naiveté hypothesis is that those exposed but not ‘infected’ on DP and TR may actually have been, but had a coronavirus common cold in the sufficiently recent past that their active immune system is NOT naïve thanks to S1-CDT. The antibodies simply clear the Wuhan virus before it can sufficiently replicate to even be detected. A lesser degree of immunity (older exposure) might allow the virus to sufficiently replicate to be detected, but not ever sufficiently to cause symptoms before the active immune system spools up to finally clear it.
If this naiveté hypothesis is correct, then the country should be opened immediately using the steps outlined by President Trump on Thursday. THAT is a HUGE deal economically. My hypothesis came about as I thought more about my vicious coronavirus cold referenced in guest post #1—without fever, so not Wuhan, but at 9 day duration plus more cough and less runny nose, also not Rhino. Hence a personal recent experience motivation for rumination #5.
Clinical Morbidity
Age dependency is easy to understand. Older people have weaker immune systems and more co-morbidities. Male dependency, dunno, just is.
Hypertension, diabetes, and obesity (in the under age 60 less impacted cohort) as the main co-morbidities take more thought to make causal connections, but can be explained with more scientific background knowledge.
We know from all the ventilator brouhaha that the primary Covid-19 clinical cause of death is viral pneumonia. The ‘ground glass’ in lower lung Xray is determinative.
But in ‘many’ cases, there are heart attack symptoms without coronary artery blockage, or cardiac arrest, or renal failure, BEFORE blood oxygenation failure, and without evidence for cytokine storms that would also damage other organs leading to a multiple organ failure diagnosis like in sepsis. And prior to death, there is in a very significant number of cases clinical evidence of kidney damage (e.g. bloody urine) and/or cardiac disfunction (e.g. arrhythmia, tachycardia). How can a respiratory virus cause those? The answer derives from the hypertension/diabetes/obesity clues.
Overweight (BMI>25) and Obese (BMI>30) is VERY strongly associated with both hypertension and type 2 diabetes according to the CDC. Hypertension by itself mechanically damages small blood vessels and capillaries. Diabetes by itself damages blood vessels and capillaries via several biological mechanisms. The leading cause of death from diabetes (itself underlying cause #7 in the US) is cardiovascular in some form according to the CDC.
Now consider lower lung viral pneumonia. It starts when epithelial cell alveoli ‘air sacs’ are infected and eventually burst from virus. The active immune system attacks, scavenging dead and infected alveoli cells. Each single cell thick alveoli sac is intimately surrounded by capillaries; this is structurally how the lungs exchange oxygen into blood and CO2 out. That immune attack cannot avoid damaging these capillaries, already weakened/damaged by hypertension and diabetes. Now the Wuhan virus is in the bloodstream, not just in the lungs. And it turns out (from the biological role of the ACE2 receptor itself) that the heart and kidneys are the two other organs in the body with an unusually high concentration of expressed ACE2 receptor: in cardiac and renal cells. So it is clinically unsurprising that a lot of critical patients exhibit these other mortality modes before respiratory failure despite ventilators.
This also explains why a virus that cannot possibly be racist (despite DeBlasio’s politically inspired intimations this past week) disproportionately kills African Americans and Hispanics in NYC. Those racial groups have a disproportionate amount of obesity. See ncbi article PMC4265895 for NYC only details, or for all New York counties health.ny.gov.
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This study says that whilst more women are obese than men they have controlled resultant problems such as heart disease and diabetes better than men.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190219170105.htm
Also I note that in the UK the numbers of men over 80 has risen by 50% in the last 15 years and for women over 80 the numbers have risen by 25%
So many more elderly men than in the past, many of whom will have several serious illnesses and who will unfortunately fall easy prey to such illnesses as flu or CV.
The last serious flu epidemic was in 2017, so the 2018 and 2019 flu seasons would fortunately not have killed too many of this cohort, which presumably means a greater proportion were going to be susceptible in 2020 to something
Tonyb
Thank you, an excellent post.
Masks are not completely useless though, they let you identify simpletons more quickly.
We’re under an “executive order” that we MUST wear masks in public now, or the Governor is going to smite us or something. Hey, at least it screws up facial-recognition AI . . .
Here in France we have the case of Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier whose crew has been contaminated by the Covid 19, 1046 of 1760 men have been tested positive with the virus, with a little more than half of them beeing asymptomatic…
The French soldiers get the flu vaccine every three years (!!!)
https://vaccination-info-service.fr/var/vis/storage/original/application/download/Calendrier%20vaccinal%20des%20arm%C3%A9es%202019.pdf
Apparently the French army is as provax as the State itself, but more inane.
I watched a video the other day on a new type of ventilator which the Italians came up with. The device is a helmet which fits over the head. It is used as an intermediary step before intubating a patient. The Italians say that they have very good results with using the device. … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuTqecGcwTw
That takes away the fear factor for medical personnel. Some doctors intubate patients because they’re afraid of aerosolization of virus with high flow oxygen (e.g., nasal cannula).
https://twitter.com/signaturedoc/status/1250072724057264128
Here in France we have the case of Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, 1046 of the crew of 1760 have been tested positive to the Covid19, a little more than half of them beeing asymptomatic..
Rud Istvan:
Sorry that conclusion is rubbish. It is even a rather ridiculous way to describe it. A virus can be “racist” : cycle cell anemia. Maybe you should consider whether there can be racially weighted response to a virus.
I’m inclined to think that in the current example it is that “people of colour” are often poor and fat. But the possibility of a genetic predisposition certainly can not be rules on the grounds of political correctness.
Sickle cell anemia is genetically inherited in african americans. Nothing to do with a virus.
Thanks for the reply Rud but you don’t address the point. ” Maybe you should consider whether there can be racially weighted response to a virus.”
Racism is defined as a prejudicial attitude, and since viruses don’t think they cannot be prejudiced. To say a virus cannot be prejudiced is a straw man fallacy since no one was saying they could. Stating this truism does not inform us about the presence or otherwise of any genetic predisposition to being vulnerable to a virus.
Though sickle cell anemia can be a survival advantage in countries where malaria is endemic, it is a weakness in countries were it is not. Since one of the critical conditions seen in COVID-19 is hypoxemia SCD may well be a disadvantage in the present case too. That would not be SARS-cov-2 being “racist” but may be a factor in the disproportionate number of those of African origin being affected. ( Though as already stated this is probably mainly social, not genetic. )
I have immense respect for the depth and breadth of you knowledge but you seem not to be displaying your usual level of insight on this one.
Well, actually I did. Frontally. To you explicitly. Sorry you did not grog facts and logic.
You said indelibly above that a virus could be ‘racist’, citing misspelled sickle cell anemia. I responded that your specific example disease is hereditary, not infectious.
And elsewhere on this thread, have explained yet again both the epidemiology and hard local facts behind the differential mortality in Blacks and Hispanics. Simple: factually differentially more obesity in those racial cohorts.
Well, sorry you disagree. I specifically cited NYC mayor DeBlasio, who actually DID made this nonsensical inference. If you would just re-read my post and take a breath.
All to do with a nasty micro-organism though…malaria
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20450-how-sickle-cell-carriers-fend-off-malaria/
In particular the older generations were prone to bad eating habits. Those are the ones who have been mentioned in the news of late as less resistant. I remember a housekeeper/nanny back in the 1950/60s, Lena Love. She was almost as wide as she was tall. Carried a 5 lb coffee can around for her spit can. I remember her cooing over my baby sisters, and she would feed them little pats of butter during the day.
Along similar lines I have noticed that many Caucasian patients depicted on news shows tend to be heavier built folk/overweight.
Vitamin D3 maybe
There are some parts of this that don’t make much sense to me.
For example:
“These aspirate particles dry out rapidly in dry indoor winter air (high surface to volume ratio) and remain circulating for many hours. In summer humidity, they don’t dry out and sink ‘rapidly’ to where they cannot be inhaled.”
The assumption that summer air is humid might be true on the US East coast, but in other areas it is far from true.
That sort of invalidates the claim:
“Dr. Fauci might be right that it could be seasonal like flu, implying primary infection route would be inhaled aspirate. In which case, all the public mask nonsense is pointless.”
And why is this? It is a giant leap with no basis as far as I can see. Do you have proof that mask wearing by an entire population has zero effect on colds/flu?
Similarly:
“Or, it is ‘just’ another corona virus, the three recommended mitigation measures work, and public masks are still nonsense–unless you have active mild symptoms: dry cough plus fever >100.4F. In which case you should quarantine yourself and not be in public even with a mask.”
The whole point is that people are infectious BEFORE being symptomatic, so this just wouldn’t work, whereas wearing a mask to prevent spraying out droplets when just speaking would actually be very useful.
“The assumption that summer air is humid might be true on the US East coast, but in other areas it is far from true.”
summer air always has more water vapour content: kg/m^3
The rest which you failed to quote was discussing RH, when you take cold winter air with low kg/m^3 and warm it up to 24 deg C. That brings RH down to about 30%. That is the context in which you need to read the rest of Rud’s comments on that subject.
“summer air always has more water vapour content”
Look at data for Alice Springs, Australia. The humidity is higher in winter.
Why don’t you cite what I ACTUALLY wrote instead of selectively cropping it off?
Then learn the difference between humidity and relative humidity.
Look at this bot of recent research, … https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1498185.html
I thought that the common cold virus was called rhinovirus. Am I wrong? I was listening to a medical doctor saying on a video on you tube that no one has isolated this virus and its presence is being inferred by RNA fragments collected from the lungs of people who have died but these fragments could have other causes but I don’t know if this is true. I feel that the high death rate for people with underlying health issues could be because normal hospital treatment has been scaled back or stopped while we have this pandemic crises it is going much the same way as 1999-2000 in which the young fit and healthy have been panicked into thinking they are going to die of a horrible disease which no one can cure.
Common colds are caused by three different types of viruses:
Nonenveloped RNA rhinoviruses are the most common.
But there are 4 enveloped RNA coronas and about 20 enveloped DNa adenos also. All produce essentially the same symptoms. Covered in post #1.
What of the rhetoric that RT-PCR is amplifying any of the 4 enveloped RNA coronas, not solely the ‘new’ Wuhan virus?
The doctor would seem to be wrong as there are numerous electron microscope images of viruses.
people get a life https://onlineradiobox.com/br/bossanova/?cs=br.bossanova&played=1&lang=en
“These aspirate particles dry out rapidly in dry indoor winter air (high surface to volume ratio) and remain circulating for many hours. In summer humidity, they don’t dry out and sink ‘rapidly’ to where they cannot be inhaled. ”
Problem. Many households in sub-topical locations do not have air conditioning. They may warm part of the house (e.g. living rooms) with open gas heaters. Gas creates a warm humid environment. Some still use wood burners. Sleeping quarters are un-heated. I guesstimate that > 80 of NZ homes fall into this category. For most of NZ, and much of Australia, indoor and outdoor winter environment is cool and HUMID. Summer is warm and DRY. We still have the typical winter flu season, June, July August, like clockwork. Most of NZ has ~ 800 mm of rainfall during these months.
I have read an explanation which may apply: During cool weather we naturally produce more nose mucus (and eye discharge?) to which a virus can attach. This is particularly the case when we venture outdoors. Meaning, that the old apparently illogical belief that if one gets cold and wet one can “catch a cold” has some merit. I dunno.
Whatever, there is more to this seasonal thingy. THINK folks, there must be an explanation.
Cheers
M
I have read several claims that the coronavirus is quite temperature sensitive and prefers cooler temps and that hot temps are effective at killing it, yet temps that are not too hot for humans…thus the bodies natural fever to kill viruses. It has been suggested that very hot saunas are useful in combatting the virus.
So, now explain second virus rebound in Singapore?
Male dependency; a further cost of our ‘Y’ chromosome, light weight for speedy ‘swimmers’ .
Covid-19 is as fake as climate change.
The United States, Italy, Spain, England and France together have more confirmed CoVid-19 cases than the entire rest of the world combined.
The United States, Italy, Spain, England and France together constitute 74% of the global CoVid-19 deaths.
Covid-19 is NOT a “global” pandemic.
NY, NJ, MA and PA together have more Covid-19 cases than the entire rest of the United States.
NY and NJ together have more Covid-19 deaths than the entire rest of the United States.
The U.S. asymptomatic ratio is 88%. That means 88% of confirmed cases don’t wind up in the hospital or morgue. Only 5% of cases are fatal. Covid-19 doesn’t seem all that contagious or fatal.
Covid-19 is NOT a national problem.
The first step in a solution is correctly identifying the problem.
Shutting down the entire US and global economies was driven by the speculative and erroneous theories of “experts” that Covid-19 spread exponentially when the data was clearly second order. Much like IPCC’s RCP 8.5, a computer model stacked on assumptions with a 0.1% connection to reality.
Then the public and politicians were stampeded to the precautionary principle by a fake news MSM propaganda machine intent on getting Trump.
For whatever reason, it more easily infects people of Northern Hemisphere, at least at this time.
Scissor
Give it a couple of months and see what happens!
“unless you have active mild symptoms: dry cough plus fever >100.4F. In which case you should quarantine yourself and not be in public even with a mask.”
This is where experts fall on their hammer. An aged care worker in Sydney spread the virus in the facility before she was diagnosed. She only had an irritated throat. A habit of wearing a mask would have stopped the spread (assuming that she didn’t take it off when alone) to a large degree. People, though, will not wear it unless they suspect that they have it, and should stay home, or everyone else is wearing it. They are unlikely to wear one at the least hint of sickness if nobody else is.
Reminds me of the 80-15-5 principle from veterinary medicine:
80% of the time the condition is self-limiting and resolves regardless of intervention or none;
5% of the time it will be fatal from the outset, interventions if any unsuccessful;
15% of the time it matters what, how and when you treat.
Eh?
I like vets. They tend to be less prone to God-like delusions of omnipotence and drama generally.
My sister-in-law is a vet who saved her mom from medical malpractice by MDs.
That’s unfortunately NOT a rare occurrence! Kudos to your sister-in-law.
Of the four cold producing corona viruses, three are strongly seasonal, one is not. All are “coated”
Interesting that everyone writes so adamantly that they know about Covid 19 effects etc… In truth nobody does and surprises are turning up all the time. Lots of reports recently about relatively young people who have had it with symptoms over 7 weeks later , often worse than original and sometimes debilitating. Explain that if you can. You can find just about any viewpoint possible on this site alone. That should tell you that there we are nowhere close to a consensus on this virus or what may happen in the future.
There are even those that hypothesize that there is a flu going around but that people are being made gravely ill by 60 GHz 5G and its effect on oxygen and the damage that does to hemoglobin and further the damage caused by the released iron ions, they claim the rollout of 5G maps well with the serious centers of the crisis. Not my field.
5G is certainly something to keep an eye on, but I haven’t been able to verify that 60 GHz is being used anywhere.
The higher the frequency of EM radiation the less it penetrates a conductor ( the skin effect.)
“Explain that if you can?” Vaping epidemic that was all the buzz 4 months ago, destroying young people’s lungs; marijuana legalization encouraging increasing use among many age groups; the flood tide of sugar that Millennials and Gen Z have been raised on as their primary food group; and tobacco smoking which is lower but has not gone away. Not to mention (because it’s not NICE to mention!) that younger people in the population have a burden of disease also–co-morbidities like heart defects, Type 1 diabetes, auto-immune disorders, meds for mental health conditions, etc. Of course, the media never mentions those.
“Type 1 diabetes, auto-immune disorders,”
Yes because if you mention these, vaccines would be suspected.
Armchair epidemiologists are readily available, no shortage at all.
History tells us what happens next. In the 1918 spanish flu epidemic governments came under pressure to open up churches, meeting houses, schools, etc after getting the spread of the virus under control.
The 2nd wave of infection was more deadly than the first.
The 3rd wave fizzled out the next year due to herd immunity.
My conclusion, no end till herd immunity established. Deaths to achieve this unknown.
It’s believed that the second wave was a mutated virus different from the first. There likely wasn’t enough infection to confer herd immunity. For whatever reason, it just died out.
Predict “herd immunity” will be achieved the day AFTER Election Day in November.
Two MDs , Drs Brownstein and Ng from a holistic medical practise are claiming that
they are achieving a 100% success rate in treating Convid-19 patients,including those already seriously ill, with a combination of three easily available, cheap, immune enhancing supplements, namely
– Vitamin A
– Vitamin C ,
– Vitamin D.
see:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgz5hRV2V-E&feature=emb_logo
This treatment combination is similar to that being advocated by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai:
https://shiva4senate.com/immune-and-economic-health-for-america-coronavirus/
If there is any truth in these claims, widespread use of the protocol could profoundly
alter the clinical and economic course of the pandemic.
Vitamins couldn’t hurt, especially D, with zinc.
But Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai is not a medical doctor. He claims to have invented email, to be a medical student and defends these false assertions by being notoriously litigious. He’s the Michael Mann of anti-GMO advocates and antivaxxers. He’s also famous for having been comedienne Fran Drescher’s BF, although some six years her junior.
Here is some anecdotal evidence which I can attest to. Around 4 weeks ago I noticed my nearby neighbor sounded like he had a bad cold/flu. I thought “Oh great”, I had smoked weed with him several days prior. He had recently driven down to LA to empty a storage locker. So I’m thinking of how likely it could be that he caught the Wuhan flu. Then I started to have a runny nose, and could feel the earliest symptoms of my body reacting to something.
So I started juicing my Rangpur limes and drinking the juice every several hours for the next two days. That took care of my runny nose, and the other sick effects which had just been starting to show up. Almost 2 weeks later, and my neighbor was still feeling the effects of being sick. I am also still using several Indian herbal remedies several times a week as maintenance. Somehow these remedies changed my urinary tests strips from showing my kidney function as abnormal, and on the verge of very abnormal to where after 13 days of use the test strips dropped down to normal kidney function. The test strips showed the first signs of change after six days of using them. This was after using the test strips for the last two years. The actual change was mainly with the micro-albumin count dropping four color changes down to negligible while my creatinine count stopped changing, and now holds steady at a reading of 4.4 every time I test.
In another odd twist I used one of the remedies on one of my cats about 3 weeks ago. I found her lying on the floor one morning on her side with that look which told me that she was going to die as I have seen others die before. I moved her into a cage outside with the thought that I would have to put her down later in the day. This was undoubtedly the feline parvovirus, aka panluekopenia. Sitting back at my computer I couldn’t stop thinking about it. Then it dawned on me to try one of my Indian herbals which is said to act as a nervine agent. I had a bottle of ashwangandha extract which aids in maintaining even blood pressure.
I measured what I thought would be a strong dose for the cat, and diluted that with a 1/4 oz of water. Then I squeezed half a Rangpur lime into 2 ounces of water as a rinsing solution. I figured (correctly as it turned out) that she would react strongly to the ashwagandha mix. Pulling her limp body out of the cage I gave her around 1/2 a cc of the ashwagandha solution. She immediately foamed at the mouth, probably from the deionized alcohol base of the extract. I quickly gave her a second dose while wiping away the foaming bubbles. At this point the cat needed her throat cleared immediately from the bubbles. So I shot several cc’s of the Rangpur lime solution into her mouth. In about a half a second she gave a big gulp as she swallowed that liquid. I did this a second time to ensure that her air passages were not obstructed. Then I placed her limp body back into the cage. I went back inside with the thought that I would recheck her in an hour or two. When I came back out, she was sitting upright in the cage with her head up, and her eyes wide open. I opened the cage, she shot out of there, and has been her normal strong self ever since. Have to say that I was a bit amazed at the sequence of events.
Final thoughts, it is likely that she sucked some of the bubbled ashwaganda solution into her lungs. Is that what did the job? Prior to the treatment I had tried enticing her to eat some canned food. She would not touch it, a sure sign for a cat or a dog of a very serious problem. A dog with parvo will not eat either. Shortly after finishing the treatment, I noticed that she sniffed the canned food and immediately started eating it. It made me think of how a corona virus infection can cause some people to lose smell and taste. Was this similar for the cat? Also made me wonder if ashwagandha can successfully treat other viruses. Lastly, did the Vit C and the claimed medicinal properties of the Rangpur lime aid in Squirrel’s recovery?
Herbpathy’s claims for Ashwagandha, … https://herbpathy.com/Uses-and-Benefits-of-Ashwagandha-Cid1159
Rud,
Your naivete hypothesis suggests that coronavirus forms of the common cold impart peripheral immunity to COVID-19, or at least provide an alert to the immune system. Is this an analog to cowpox/smallpox immunity? Should those who have recovered from COVID-19 but exhibit weak or no antibodies to it also be tested for common cold coronavirus antibodies? Would these viruses constitute a stop-gap vaccine?
Exactly. Wrote about that in Gaia’s Limits chapter 1. Should have put the analogy in the main post. Du-Oh.
A further thought you just triggered. Selecting the least bad of the four common cold coronaviruses and using it to infect everybody at risk causes at worst a mild cold, but confers at least partial Covid-19 immunity. Just like Jenner’s magnificent discovery that milkmaids did not get smallpox after cowpox. The basis to this day of smallpox eradication via cowpox inoculation, leaving just a small single pustule scar on the vaccinated shoulder.
Analog viral immunity.
As you surmised, we probably already have a reasonably effective live ‘vaccine’ at hand with observational evidence for at least partial efficacy, via CVN71. Lets roll.
I will pass this along tomorrow to Fauci via email, since my company archive still preserves all his back channels. Just have to reformat portions of my guest post here to be more sciency credible than layman explanatory. Easy few hours of effort.
Exactly. The presence of common cold coronavirus antibodies in those who have recovered but exhibit no COVID-19 antibodies would bolster your hypothesis and perhaps identify the most effective strain(s). Keep it rolling.
Istvan, make sure POTUS has a cc email!
…just saying 😉
I hope that this proves possible. However the SARS CVs are in a different genus (Alpha-) from the common cold-causing CV (Beta-).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/
Cowpox and smallpox both belong to the same genus of giant viruses, Orthopoxvirus.
The hide of Blossom, the cow from which milkmaid Sarah Nelmes caught cowpox in 1796, is preserved at St. Geroge’s, U. of London, currently working on COVID-19. She went to Dr. Jenner for a rash on her right hand. Today he’d go to prison for conducting a possibly lethal experiment on the eight year-old son of his gardener. But vaccination, the technique he pioneered, has saved countless lives.
Blossom’s horns are on display at Dr. Jenner’s House, Museum and Garden in Berkeley, Gloucestershire.
Oops. Have that backwards. SARS, MERS and SARS-2 are betacoronaviruses. Cold viruses are alpha-.
John,
Wasn’t that addressed in paragraph 9?
“The four common cold coronaviruses are: 229E and NL63 in the ‘alpha’ serotype group, and OC43 and HKU1 in the ‘beta’ serotype group.”
However, your comment suggests that the latter would be the more effective in establishing collateral immunity.
Yes. If we were to try this approach, a less dangerous betacoronavirus would be the way to go. But I was under the perhaps mistaken impression that all the clod-causing CVs are alpha.
Good point, but before anyone gets intentionally infected, start by testing the CVN-71 crew for the presence of anti-bodies to the four common cold coronaviruses and COVID-19. Then evaluate any correlation between those and the severity of outcomes, focusing on any asymptomatic survivors without COVID-19 antibodies.
Would be a good place to start. The whole complement of 4800 has now been tested. About 13% are positive for the WuWHOFlu virus.
One 41 year-old sailor has died. Another is still in ICU, out of eight hospitalized.
While largely male, hence at increased risk of COVID, the sailors are also mostly young and healthy. Since most didn’t get infected enough for antibodies to show up, it would be hard to say what effect a recent CV-caused cold might have had. Unless most of them were positive for such an infection.
Disclaimer: I am an engineer, not a virologist. Any helpful comments from those better versed in the field are welcome.
John,
As I understand it there are no levels of infection, only variations in how each individual immune system responds to that infection. As I interpret Rud’s naivete hypothesis, we should expect several classes of response:
• The virus is sufficiently similar to a previously-encountered virus that the existing suite of anti-bodies can eliminate it. No symptoms, no new antibodies.
• The virus is sufficiently different that existing anti-bodies are not fully effective. Disease progress is slowed while new anti-bodies are generated. Symptoms are mild to none and level of new anti-bodies is low.
• The virus is sufficiently novel that no existing anti-bodies are effective. Disease progression is rapid. Outcome depends on patient’s underlying health and the strength of their immune response. Survivors have high levels of new anti-bodies.
I know this is a gross over-simplification, but it fits that wide range of outcomes and of levels of novel anti-bodies in survivors. I also know I have no access to any data that would bolster or deflate this supposition. But, it’s a thought.
More news about remdesivir, and more suggestion that the drug may be shown to be effective against ‘Rona:
“The study, led by the its National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) involved two groups of six rhesus macaque monkeys that were intentionally infected with the respiratory disease. One group was treated with remdesivir while the second was not.
The first group of monkeys was given its first dose of the drug intravenously 12 hours after the initial infection, and then every day for a further six days. Twelve hours after the initial treatment, symptoms of COVID-19 in the monkeys had significantly improved and their conditions continued to improve during the rest of the trial.
At the end of the test, just one of the six animals treated with remdesivir displayed mild difficulty breathing, while all six animals in the untreated group had difficulty breathing.
The amount of virus found in their lungs was significantly lower in the treatment group compared to the untreated group, the study stated, and the coronavirus caused less damage to the lungs in the treated monkeys than in the untreated ones.
“Early treatment with the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir significantly reduced clinical disease and damage to the lungs of rhesus macaques infected with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19,” the NIH wrote in a statement.”
https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Antiviral-drug-remdesivir-prevents-COVID-19-progression-in-monkeys-study-625102
12 hours after infection is not early, it is close to a premonition of infection. Is this a serious clinical trial?
my vicious coronavirus cold referenced in guest post #1
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Same symptoms late February west coast. Uncontrollable cough and chills but still within normal temp range.
Is this like cowpox of old. Could we purposely infect with weaker coronavirus as protection against c-19.
Maybe this explains the SF Bay Area 85 times higher than expected antibodies.
Yup. See explicit comments just above. I should have put the analogy in the main post, since knew about it. Brain cramp
The re-suspension of the bug noted in this post-
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2020. Rapid Expert
Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival and Incubation for the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
https://doi.org/10.17226/25763.
combined with being coughed on when we went shopping at the end of march has led to our wearing n95 masks anytime we go shopping.
Nothing has change in China. The wet market is open and the lab is open. I think travel to and from China should be banned indefinitely. If Europe doesn’t do the same we should ban them too