Wuhan #Coronavirus and Covid-19 Rumination #5

By Rud Istvan

The world continues to learn about this sometimes deadly new zoonotic virus. We know now from NYC that it is disproportionately serious in males (61% of tested symptomatics), more fatal in people over 65 (63%), and is disproportionately lethal (84%) in people with especially the comorbidities hypertension (55%), diabetes (35%) and obesity (50% of serious/critical [s/c] hospital admissions in NOLA, under 60 years old 2x s/c in NYC). More on the significance of these facts is developed below.

We know from two inadvertent extreme ‘lack of social distancing’ “experiments”, Diamond Princess (DP) and CVN71 (Theodore Roosevelt, TR), that only about 15% (TR) to 19% (DP, with several more weeks of exposure) ever test positive for the virus. That means that something like 80-85% of people have an immune system that seems to handle the virus effortlessly even in highly infectious, high viral titer circumstances–so that not even a positive viral shedding test develops. This could just be a very good innate immune system; it could also be a primed active immune system (i.e. the population was NOT naïve). A very plausible explanation hypothesis is developed below with important ramifications for opening countries from extreme lockdown measures.

We know from those same two ‘experiments’ that between 45% (DP) and 55% (TR) test positive but are asymptomatic. Now, some of that is just the now known incubation period with a mean ~5 days from infection and 97.5% displaying symptoms within 11.5 days. But we know also from South Korea that of the ~10600 now tested positive but asymptomatic and quarantined 14 days, that ~20% NEVER developed even mild symptoms. This is likely also explained by the naiveté hypothesis developed below.

In what follows, the primary technical sources are the Journal of Virology on coronaviruses, ncbi.nlm.NIH.gov for science publications, www.CDC.gov, and for clinical morbidity a very new ‘anecdotal’ survey article at Sciencemag.org.

Mitigation

The CDC says that there are four common cold coronavirus serotypes causing something between 15 and 35% of all common colds, (about 5% more are DNA adenoviruses that do not mutate much so immunity to them is long lasting), with the remainder caused by about 100 different rhinovirus serotypes.

For all three common cold virus types, the route of transmission is known to be cough, touching (handshake after cough), or hand face contact (cough droplets to a surface, touch surface, then touch mouth, nose, eyes.)  This is why common colds are only weakly seasonal while flu is strongly seasonal. That is why for COVID-19, social distancing, frequent hand washing, and consciously NOT face touching ‘work’. From a transmission perspective, Wuhan is ‘just’ another coronavirus.

An aside argued in rumination #4 and in other previous comments to others. Observational fact: flu is strongly seasonal, common colds are not. The reason lies in route of transmission. Inhaling infected aspirate principally spreads flu (aspirate particles are less than 5 microns). These aspirate particles dry out rapidly in dry indoor winter air (high surface to volume ratio) and remain circulating for many hours. In summer humidity, they don’t dry out and sink ‘rapidly’ to where they cannot be inhaled. Winter contact route of flu transmission exists but is distinctly secondary according to my personal communications with Dr. Fauci summer of 2009. Anything less than an N95 respirator will not prevent you from catching flu. Quarantine is ineffective. Annual flu shot is advised.

Now, there are two Covid-19 possibilities. Dr. Fauci might be right that it could be seasonal like flu, implying primary infection route would be inhaled aspirate. In which case, all the public mask nonsense is pointless. Or, it is ‘just’ another corona virus, the three recommended mitigation measures work, and public masks are still nonsense–unless you have active mild symptoms: dry cough plus fever >100.4F. In which case you should quarantine yourself and not be in public even with a mask.

Lack of transmission under extreme circumstances in 80-85% of cases

The four common cold coronaviruses are: 229E and NL63 in the ‘alpha’ serotype group, and OC43 and HKU1 in the ‘beta’ serotype group. Wuhan is also in the beta serotype group. All four common cold coronavirus spike proteins have two binding sites. In all four, the S1-CTD site binds the ACE2 receptor on epithelial cells such as line the nose, mouth, throat, and lungs. So their spike proteins, just like Wuhan, ‘key’ to that cellular receptor lock as well (as after being fully humanized) to another that varies. S1-CTD is a natural target for antibodies.

My naiveté hypothesis is that those exposed but not ‘infected’ on DP and TR may actually have been, but had a coronavirus common cold in the sufficiently recent past that their active immune system is NOT naïve thanks to S1-CDT. The antibodies simply clear the Wuhan virus before it can sufficiently replicate to even be detected. A lesser degree of immunity (older exposure) might allow the virus to sufficiently replicate to be detected, but not ever sufficiently to cause symptoms before the active immune system spools up to finally clear it.

If this naiveté hypothesis is correct, then the country should be opened immediately using the steps outlined by President Trump on Thursday. THAT is a HUGE deal economically. My hypothesis came about as I thought more about my vicious coronavirus cold referenced in guest post #1—without fever, so not Wuhan, but at 9 day duration plus more cough and less runny nose, also not Rhino.  Hence a personal recent experience motivation for rumination #5.

Clinical Morbidity

Age dependency is easy to understand. Older people have weaker immune systems and more co-morbidities.  Male dependency, dunno, just is.

Hypertension, diabetes, and obesity (in the under age 60 less impacted cohort) as the main co-morbidities take more thought to make causal connections, but can be explained with more scientific background knowledge.

We know from all the ventilator brouhaha that the primary Covid-19 clinical cause of death is viral pneumonia. The ‘ground glass’ in lower lung Xray is determinative.

But in ‘many’ cases, there are heart attack symptoms without coronary artery blockage, or cardiac arrest, or renal failure, BEFORE blood oxygenation failure, and without evidence for cytokine storms that would also damage other organs leading to a multiple organ failure diagnosis like in sepsis. And prior to death, there is in a very significant number of cases clinical evidence of kidney damage (e.g. bloody urine) and/or cardiac disfunction (e.g. arrhythmia, tachycardia). How can a respiratory virus cause those? The answer derives from the hypertension/diabetes/obesity clues.

Overweight (BMI>25) and Obese (BMI>30) is VERY strongly associated with both hypertension and type 2 diabetes according to the CDC. Hypertension by itself mechanically damages small blood vessels and capillaries. Diabetes by itself damages blood vessels and capillaries via several biological mechanisms.  The leading cause of death from diabetes (itself underlying cause #7 in the US) is cardiovascular in some form according to the CDC.

Now consider lower lung viral pneumonia. It starts when epithelial cell alveoli ‘air sacs’ are infected and eventually burst from virus. The active immune system attacks, scavenging dead and infected alveoli cells. Each single cell thick alveoli sac is intimately surrounded by capillaries; this is structurally how the lungs exchange oxygen into blood and CO2 out. That immune attack cannot avoid damaging these capillaries, already weakened/damaged by hypertension and diabetes. Now the Wuhan virus is in the bloodstream, not just in the lungs. And it turns out (from the biological role of the ACE2 receptor itself) that the heart and kidneys are the two other organs in the body with an unusually high concentration of expressed ACE2 receptor: in cardiac and renal cells. So it is clinically unsurprising that a lot of critical patients exhibit these other mortality modes before respiratory failure despite ventilators.

This also explains why a virus that cannot possibly be racist (despite DeBlasio’s politically inspired intimations this past week) disproportionately kills African Americans and Hispanics in NYC. Those racial groups have a disproportionate amount of obesity. See ncbi article PMC4265895 for NYC only details, or for all New York counties health.ny.gov.

255 thoughts on “Wuhan #Coronavirus and Covid-19 Rumination #5

  1. Would your hypothesis explain why outbreaks of other families of diseases end before the infection rates are high enough for herd immunity to come into effect?

        • No one knows. The British governments brainless so called ‘ministers’ have no idea what to do, too frightened to make any pronouncements while BoJo is indisposed; he has been known to boot out of the party then the government anyone who dares speak his/her mind. Hence, our leaders are anxious to keep their ministerial pay and privileges, flapping around like headless chickens.

          • One of the solutions that this govt (possaibly the worst in my experience, even surpasing the depths of the Callaghan shambles of the md ’70s and the never ending food rationing of the Atlee administration) is considering , acording to the media, is to confine over 70s to permanent house arrest , ie for ever, until you, (I), die.
            Now the pension age is increased to 68 , may be soon increase to to 70 . So, on the day that you retire, you are immediately locked up and all thoughts of using retirement for the travel that you have been planning all your working life have to be abandoned.
            Brilliant.
            As a member of several volunter groups I am aware that most of the active members , ie the ones that actually help run them, that is actually do the work , are 65 – 80 . Most of these will be legally forbidden to participate.
            Brilliant.
            This govt is manufacturing the greatest recession that this country has ever known , and doing it on the basis of data that is not only unreliable, but is data none of the govt officials have any technical knowledge to understand and therefore improve.
            People like our noble Lords who get £300/day for doing sweet fanny adams but tell the rest of us what we have to give up really annoy me.
            Sorry if this offends.

          • I think that is unfair. Whilst it is true that the Minister of Health is a complete arse covering Oxford PPE career politician and I suspect this will end his political career – I hope so – there is intelligent life in Britain, and it is doing the rational thing: keeping lockdown until the death rate starts to fall dramatically. While Ristvan is making seriously good points, the politicians cannot allow anything that doesn’t have the cachet of being backed up by solid opinion and medical consensus to affect their judgement. In a country deeply divided over Brexit and the actual loss of momentum of the Left, there are plenty quite happy to gamble with the nations health to score cheap political points.

            In short I expect a further 3-4 weeks before any relaxation. See Vucevik’s curves for why. UK is approaching peak crisis right now.

            At least the rate of growth is slowing.
            It may be true that vast swathes of the population are more or less resistant to one particular mutation but woe betide anyone who takes their foot off the lockdown brake only to see deaths spiralling out of control.

          • the politicians cannot allow anything that doesn’t have the cachet of being backed up by solid opinion and medical consensus to affect their judgement.

            That is the entire problem with the OTT responses to this epidemic. The medical “consensus” is NOT the only factor which govt. has to take into account. Medical, or rather, academic “experts” are acting like climate prima donnas, thinking that their perspective over-rules all other factors and thus they are morally justified ( doubtless “obliged” ) to lie cheat and exaggerate as much as necessary to ensure that their opinions win the day and they can manipulate what is supposed to be objective professional opinion to ensure that THEY dictate policy, not a properly weighed cost-balance political choice considering all factors.

          • Hi Leo
            You obviously did not see the Williamson’s today or Jenrick’s yesterday or in the past few days just as bad the Rab’s or Hencock’s press conferences, or even the pathetic Gove’s interview this morning. If that is best that Britain can offer at it’s moment of crisis god help us.
            Only that young Indian bloke, despite lack of any ministerial experience, displays any confidence, but again he is throwing about not his wife’s family fortune, but hard earned taxpayers money.

          • No one knows. The British governments brainless so called ‘ministers’ have no idea what to do, too frightened to make any pronouncements while BoJo is indisposed; he has been known to boot out of the party then the government anyone who dares speak his/her mind.

            Apparently BoJo didn’t cover himself in glory either missing couple of first COBRA meetings in February, where the problem was discussed. Instead he preferred to celebrate Chinese New Year. I reckon at least 5 weeks were lost. Now, the government is desperately looking for PPE in countries like Turkey and China. We used to be industrial and R&D powerhouse – now cannot even make johnny gowns ourselves.

          • Vuk, you’re far too harsh.

            The government took advice from the NHS/PHE and then the discredited Ferguson. The blame lies squarely with them.

            As for the ludicrous suggestion by mikewaite that the government is considering permanent house arrest of the over 70s (and this government is worse than any other) it’s absolutely mad and completely untrue.

        • “Is the UK planning to or in the process of easing up on restrictions?”

          I would have thought the first thing UK govt needs to know is how many people they have cured and sent home and/or how many they currently have in hospital.

          AFAICT, they don’t know either. So how the hell can you work out policy when you don’t even have a metric of where you have been, where you are now in order to work where you are going.

          Rule Britannia ? We currently have a ship in storm with no compass, no charts and the boatswain trying to reassure the crew, while the captain sips rum in sick bay.

        • There is an interesting take on the Sweden vs Britain debate today in the British press. It occurs to me that all the European lockdown countries are extremely disappointed that the Swedes are not dropping like flies so they can jump for joy shouting “I told you so!” to the world’s media. Statistically speaking, if lockdowns really worked, the number of deaths per million in Sweden should by now be well above the deaths per million in every surrounding country. In relation to Britain, it should by now be at least four times as many deaths, about 6-7,000 not 1540 as they are now.

          With every day that passes, the case for lockdowns goes down the drain, though I notice the British media is doubling down on the “we’ve got to keep lockdown or people will die” message. The Brit-hating Daily Mail is enjoying the lockdown and has a ludicrous piece from Dominic Lawson today with the mandatory swipe at Sweden for not caving in to their demands to do what every other country is doing wrong. This article and those like it always condemn Sweden for not locking down then go on to say Swedes are acting as if there is a lockdown. Well, which version is it? You can’t have it both ways — unless you write for the Daily Mail.

          https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8235287/DOMINIC-LAWSON-No-coronavirus-lockdown-cure-ISNT-worse-disease.html

          It looks like all my predictions are coming true, and never have I wished more that I was wrong. I predicted the economy is going to have a catastrophic smash and I see that there are estimates that up to 12 million jobs will be affected or lost. I also predicted that sick people would stop going to hospital for treatment because the media keeps telling them they will probably die if they turn up in A&E, and that is now the case. When the social distancing rules were imposed I reckoned they would be removed for businesses first and for everything else last, and that we will not get back to normal for months after the last virus patient has died. This is now official government thinking and their plan for “staged” removal of social distancing will have us queuing outside supermarkets and banks until Christmas unless there is a mass protest and the media joins in.

          The way things are going, the virus will burn itself out by the end of June though the government will be more concerned with saving face about the lockdown than public safety and the economy. Most of us have already been exposed to the virus multiple times, so if we have not suffered so far we were immune anyway — just like in every other flu season — and just like in 2016 when nearly 162,000 people died of the flu and pneumonia without a word being said by anyone.

      • I’ve found it useful to construct centered 7 day moving averages of the data on cases and deaths. It handles the effects of weekend misreporting well – otherwise they greatly confuse the picture. I conclude that hospitalisations peaked on 4th April (and therefore infections probably at end March). It seems the lockdown was effective in rapidly breaking the chains of infections.

        Also instructive is to look at the Local Authority data available by download: convert cases to per million rates using populations from ONS. Things like the early and large spread in London, and the degree of disparity between London and some more tranquil areas leap out. Rutland – despite having a high proportion of elderly – seems to have been the least affected part of England. Some places have had more recent upsurges in infections, having stayed largely infection free earlier, and in a few cases may not yet have passed their peak, although it will likely be far lower than in London boroughs. Again, weekly sums or 7 day averages help to see what is happening more clearly.

  2. “We know from two inadvertent extreme ‘lack of social distancing’ “experiments”, Diamond Princess (DP) and CVN71 (Theodore Roosevelt, TR), that only about 15% (TR) to 19% (DP, with several more weeks of exposure) ever test positive for the virus. That means that something like 80-85% of people have an immune system that seems to handle the virus effortlessly even in highly infectious, high viral titer circumstances–so that not even a positive viral shedding test develops. This could just be a very good innate immune system; it could also be a primed active immune system (i.e. the population was NOT naïve). A very plausible explanation hypothesis is developed below with important ramifications for opening countries from extreme lockdown measures.”

    sorry we know no such thing.

      • From the outset, I thought that the Diamond Princess was a great ‘experiment’ to tell us something valuable. Neither Mosher nor Istivan has supplied sufficient data.

          • It was not an extreme “‘lack of social distancing’” the passengers were quarantined in their Cabins.
            How is that normal?

          • AC, I agree that the Simi quarrantine on the DP was not “an extreme “‘lack of social distancing’”. Also I have not seen any reported test results for all the other passengers to see how many had developed antibodies.

            Can anyone explain Ruds logic on why quarrantine may not be effective? One can well argue about the deep and lasting harm of economic destruction, but it really is very simple logic that contact spread, droplet spread, and vapor spread are all proximity dependent.

            I understand that flu deaths and penimonia deaths dropped like a rock after the lockdowns in most nations, and so this also is evidence that lockdowns effectively slow or stop the spread.

          • “It was not an extreme “‘lack of social distancing’” the passengers were quarantined in their Cabins.
            How is that normal?

            Bingo

        • Agree with Mosher on this one. Rud Istvan’s deduction is very important if true, but there is an assumption there that he is not entitled to make. [I’d like to think he was right, though].

      • “I conclude that Steven Mosher has been overexposed to Monty Python’s Argument Clinic.”
        No he hasn’t !

    • Well of course Steven, YOU don’t.
      But the rest of us do, to a reasonable degree of certainty – a lot more than any climate hypothesis anyway

      • ““We know from two inadvertent extreme ‘lack of social distancing’ “experiments”, Diamond Princess (DP) and CVN71 (Theodore Roosevelt, TR), that only about 15% (TR) to 19% (DP, with several more weeks of exposure) ever test positive for the virus. ”

        1. we dont know how well mixed the passengers were or were not.
        2. we dont know if they practiced covering their cough. Since the index patient and 9 others
        were Hong Kongers ( who know how to cover their coughs) we might assume
        they were more hygienic than your typical westerner
        3. We have no idea the race of the infected. This matters because of different social practices
        bowing versus hand shaking ( the Index patient was Asian)

        basically we dont have any relevant data

        • Steven Mosher
          April 20, 2020 at 5:03 am

          basically we dont have any relevant data
          —————
          Because the entire global population and the global economy is held hostage, including their respective governments, due to this madness of lock down of their nations and states, resulting anarchy confusion and chaos.

          Oh well, apart for one, the Federal Government of USA.
          The only Government, that did not issue orders or guide lines for lock downs or imprisonment of the people and the nation, and in the same time heavy and intensely engaged in responding to the condition quickly and efficiently by a
          rump-up of the proper medical healthcare measures and counter measures to such a crisis… the real working ones… in real time record… better, far far much better than all there.

          The only non moronic “cowboy” government. (maybe one or two others there too in shadows)

          Only a moronic “cowboy” government will consider that the lock down of the nation is a proper efficient or working response to a global influenza disease pandemic.

          In contrary, it simply makes the situation and the crisis worse, in all possible tangents and vectors of a possible efficient response… wholly counterproductive.

          Where the value of whatever data there will be irrelevant in the prospect of assistance for any coherent decision making.
          Leading to more confusion, anarchy and chaos… where clarity, transparency and certainty at any stage or point will not exist and tarnished…
          and the weaning of confidence and the trust of the people and the nation becomes simply a matter of time outcome.

          Getting snared in the “electrolyte limbo”, nationally, it ain’t pretty… or easy to get off it, when it consist as a collapsing factor to the economy… especially when the nation not governed anymore by the elected government.

          cheers

    • TR is 60% test positive asymptomatic. Undisclosed how many symptomatic, but a handful are hospitalized and 1 has died. If you are posasymptomatic are you positive for life? Are you perpetually contagious? What about symptomatic “recovered” that test positive?

    • Another fly-by comment from Mr Mosher. Try explaining why Rud is wrong and you, by implication, must be right! In these parlous times positivity is all. Unadulterated negativity, useless at the best of times, is not what’s needed.

    • With at least a week for symptoms to show up and such high number testing positive, it’s not a stretch that everyone was exposed before they were confined to cabins. Istvan only says that we know the results of the test. The rest is an assumption and a likely one.

      Now, try again.

    • “The French minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, announced on April 17 that 1,081 sailors had tested positive for COVID-19 out of a crew of 2,300 sailors on the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and the aeronautical group accompanying it.”

      So it does spread quickly before officers notice and isolate the crew.

      • Well, yes. But that particular French experiment suggests over 40% susceptibility, which blows Rud’s naive assumption.

        An Antarctic cruise ship (which ended up stranded off Uruguay) found 60% of passengers and crew infected.

        A hospital in Sweden found 50% of its nursing staff infected.

        These incidents all suggest that you cannot just assume that only 15 to 19% of the population can become infected.

    • I think Steven has made a good effort to comment helpfully and move conversations and knowledge forward, but I might suggest he could try a little less heat and more light at times…like here perhaps.
      It is always possible to offer alternative points of view without being overtly disagreeable.
      Dr. Istvan has been out in front, working hard to keep us informed and to educate us all, and I for one want to make sure I let him know how much I understand and appreciate the efforts he has made to do so.
      Nothing about what is occurring is easy for any of us, and some of us are in more personal danger than others for some combination of reasons.
      This is a fine opportunity to let those qualities that unite us, outshine those that divide us.

      • Nicholas McGinley
        April 19, 2020 at 2:12 pm

        Thank you for reminding me of who we are here on this blog. Now I’m ashamed of my comments re Dr. Rud Istvan. Thank you also for reminding me of his efforts to help and I know his qualifications are much higher than mine to analyze the data–I apologize Dr. Istvan and will curb my knee jerk reactions in the future.

    • Try reading that text you quoted again. The author does not assert we know things, but discusses them as possibilities.

    • You know Steven, I often get irritated at you (I think you annoy people on purpose) but this time I have to wholeheartedly agree with you. I read this, “We know from those same two ‘experiments’ that between 45% (DP) and 55% (TR) test positive but are asymptomatic.” What??? I have seriously been following reports and papers around the globe and we still don’t know much, much less that 85% of people “handle it effortlessly.” Most “results” to date have not been peer reviewed, have inadequate parameters, few control groups, and are too limited in numbers and time. Most people have found that social distancing does flatten the curve which is crucial for our health care systems and “public mask nonsense” what are you talking about??? That is so far off the wall, I almost stopped reading there–yes, Rud, your hypothesis is not only “naiveté ” but based on misinterpreted reports and skewed facts. I would say, you don’t know what you’re talking about. (oh, and by the way, I am for opening things up too–but not based on what you think you found)

      • Hi Shelly. I agree that the three advised things will definitely ‘flatten the curve’. Yup.
        But you need to think more deeply about other reported Cocid-19 facts and situations.

        • I’m not sure Rud Istvan’s cross-immunity hypothesis is needed, it is not uncommon for most healthy people exposed to a novel virus to toss it off with no symptoms (relatively recent example in US was West Nile Virus, but even polio causes symptoms in a minority of those infected and paralysis and death in about 1 in 200), but it is reasonable.

          Moreover, data to support a large number of asymptomatic infections seems to be accumulating rapidly around the world. The anti-body study in Santa Clara County and elsewhere in California currently under online review seems supportive. I’d like to see some widespread antibody testing going on – especially in places like Sweden

          • Humans are the result of a couple of billion years of evolution. A lot of different bugs have had a crack at us and our ancestors, in every part of the world. How that acquired immunity or innate susceptibility translates to each of us is quite specific to us individually. We see that in any interaction with a new pathogen. Another way to look at it is that the virus itself has evolved without having to face the human immune system recently. It is almost certainly quite finely tuned to it’s previous host. Now it is under a different evolutionary pressure. The real risk now is that a variant arises that is adapted to humans and is more virulent. Ordinarily, such biological entities lose their virulence as the more deadly versions kill their hosts before they spread. But in a massively connected world of 7.5 B people, I would think it’s quite likely that something very deadly could continue its spread for a long time. That might be the best argument for wearing masks and limiting contact until we can get a vaccine.

        • All 397 residents of a homeless shelter tested, results : 146 out of 397 were positive. More importantly for this discussion, none were symptomatic. The testing was done on April 4 or 5 time frame. The article was updated on April 15 when:

          “The 146 people who tested positive were immediately moved to two different temporary isolation facilities in Boston. According to O’Connell, only one of those patients needed hospital care, and many continue to show no symptoms.”

          https://www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

    • Which part do you take issue with Mosh? I know the data from China and the USA is “less than average quality” to put it politely. The 2 petri-dish ships, while a small sample size, are probably the best data we have.

      One concern I have with data from those 2 ships is that one had an large percentage of old people and the other was mostly young healthy males. Not representative to be sure but a good start.

      Do you have any opinion on which countries data is actually useful at this point. Just my SWAG but I’d put South Korea, Singapore and Sweden at the top.

      Thanks

    • Mr. Moser.
      I completely agree and just posted a rejoinder to the assumption based on my 22 years in the Navy.

      • Women work in some jobs that might compromise their respiratory systems. But other than waitressing (second hand smoke), housekeeping and health care work, almost all the jobs most likely to compromise lung health are carried out by men: construction, demolition, hazardous waste removal, pesticide applications, renovation, machine shop labor, manufacturing, insulation installing and removal, firefighting, coalmining, auto body spray painting, farming…

        Plus everybody knows we smoke and don’t wash our hands.

    • It is more likely that males have a zinc deficiency requiring more per day than females as zinc is used in the production of testosterone. Zinc in the cells disrupts the hijacking of the cellular RNA transcription by corona viruses. This is why an ionophore plus zinc is being prescribed as a treatment for COVID-19

      Note also that the Chinese diet is zinc deficient.

      • Well you beat me to it, but it was low hanging fruit 😉

        This protein, known as angiotensin converting enzyme 2, or ACE2, is present in the lungs, the gastrointestinal tract and the heart in addition to large quantities in the testicles.

        So we have more ACE2 in our nuts than in our lungs. I’m not even going to waste time fact checking that one. Neither do I see the relevance of “mother and daughter” team other than they probably share the same anti-male bias.

        Man typically have harder working lives, are exposed to more toxic working conditions and die about 10y younger. Don’t be surprised if they as disproportionately hit by this illness.

      • No:

        “Researchers tracked the recovery of 68 patients in Mumbai, India, to study the gender disparity of the virus, which has taken a worse toll on men, according to a preliminary report posted on MedRxix, which hosts unpublished medical research papers that have not been peer reviewed.”

        The mom is in India and daughter in NY.

    • Anecdotal evidence says otherwise. Men tend to wait until they are very sick before seeking care. One doctor said men don’t come in for possible Covid-19 infections until they are knocking on death’s door. Women are more pro-active and willing to seek medical care much sooner.

      Yet another way men and women are different.

  3. Would love to see possible iatrogenic (doctor caused) factors in clinical morbidity/mortality addressed.

    Factor 1 – Iatrogenic increase of infection risk
    * The SARS-2 virus, like the SARS-1 virus, infects lung cells via the ACE2 enzyme
    * Increased ACE2 expression in lungs likely increases risk of severe lung infection
    * ACE inhibitors (ACEi) prescribed for hypertension and some other conditions cause increased ACE2 expression in the lungs (because ACEi have no effect on ACE2)
    * Ibuprofen also increases ACE2 expression
    * As infection of lung cells increases, ACE2 expression decreases (causing its regulatory function to decrease)

    Factor 2 – Iatrogenic increase of inflammatory cytokines by destabilization of ACE/ACE2 balance
    * ACE and ACE2 counter-regulate each other to maintain system balance. ACE promotes inflammatory factors (cytokines); ACE2 promotes anti-inflammatory factors.
    * ACEi-taking covid patients admitted to hospitals, at some point have their ACEi treatments stopped, which causes ACE to increase (ACEi half life is about 12 hours; virtually gone from system in about 3.5 days).
    * So as ACE2 decreases (because of increasing infection) and ACE increases (because ACE inhibition is stopped), immune system goes wildly out of balance (cytokine storm).

    Factor 3 – Iatrogenic increase of hypoxemia by destabilization of ACE/ACE2 balance
    * ACE promotes vasoconstriction and ACE2 promotes vasodilation
    * Plummeting ACE2 (due to increasing viral infection) and increasing ACE (due ACEi meds cessation) would increase pulmonary vasoconstriction
    * Pulmonary vasoconstriction causes pulmonary edema that potentially causes hypoxemic diffusion
    * Low O2 saturation from hypoxemia leads to organ damage

    Factor 4 – Iatrogenic increase of thrombosis risk
    * ACEi meds decrease PAI-1 production
    * PAI-1 inhibits tPA
    * tPA breaks down blood clots
    * When ACEi meds stop, PAI-1 increases causing increased inhibition of tPA, which increases risk of thrombosis

    Factor 5 – Iatrogenic lung damage (ARDS) caused by wrong diagnosis and treatment protocol
    * Based on information from China, covid patients are assumed to have acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
    * Hospitals follow a protocol that stipulates putting ARDS patients on ventilators with high PEEP (pulmonary end expiry pressure) and low oxygen.
    * However, astute doctors around the world have noticed that many covid patients do not have typical ARDS symptoms, and warn that intubating these patients with high PEEP may be causing the ARDS they are trying to treat.

    Factor 6 – Kidney/Liver damage from experimental antiviral drug toxicities

    • Organ failure and death from hypoxemic diffusion caused by pulmonary edema caused by pulmonary vasoconstriction

          • This is why older people in Japan for instance are not dying ( as hoped for by most of the loony western media) because they use calcium blockers not ACe inhibitors.
            What is very very frustrating is that almost all of this was known by the end of Feb , but it happened and was reported in Far Eastern countries so was ignored by the West. Bloody fools.

          • I’d like to see ACE inhibitor use per country. I found this, but it’s not complete; only a few countries. But of the countries shown Italy is at the top and Taiwan is at the bottom.

            Daily defined dosage per 1000 inhabitants (DID) varies considerably between countries: Italy (Campania) 2016 (Malo S 2019): 220, Spain (Aragon) 2016 (Malo S 2019): 160; Lithuania 2012 (Lisauskienė I 2017): 190; Sweden 2012 (Lisauskienė I 2017): 145; Norway 2012 (Lisauskienė I 2017): 120; Australia 2006 (Huang LY 2013): 120, Taiwan 2006 (Huang LY 2013): 42.

    • The metabolic syndrome (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, fatty liver) is ITSELF a morbid state which is highly unnatural (the result of progressive intolerance to refined carbohydrates). See ACE info. in the post above.

      The meds given to “correct” HBP do nothing for the root cause; they are literally a band-aid on an observable “symptom,” but do not change the underlying metabolic dysfuction causing retention of both salt and water which actually cause most hypertension.

      However, YOU can make choices that within3 days’ time will begin to normalize your glucose metabolism and, by measurable and known metrics, increase the activity of T-cells giving you a better chance of fighting this off: STOP eating sugars, starches, soft drinks, fruits, and seed oils in all their forms. Eat only protein and natural animal fats like butter. DO NOT try to eat “low-fat” or “plant-based.” TOSS the boxed, processed, grains and sweets. Just 27 g. of sugar suppresses T-cell activity to near zero for a whole 6 hours; fasting on the other had supercharges it. Intermittent fasting becomes effortless once one is adapted to the burning of fat in the form of ketone bodies. You’ll start losing weight without hunger or cravings, too, once you break your addiction to the glucose/insulin roller coaster.

      This is how our species survived for glaciated millenia before all the iatrogenic horrors you’re now witnessing. The truth is the USA is getting slammed in greatest numbers because the USA’s diet is more than 60% “SAD-CRAP” (standard American diet, carbohydrates refined and packaged). Try to eat what your great-grandparents would have recognized as “food” and you’ll get through the COVID-fraught supermarket quicker, too!

      • Hi Goldrider, – Your dietary preference lacks context by asserting “sugar” (glucose) is not suitable for robust immunity. Yyou seem to be giving advice that assumes human metabolism & immunology operate on the same lineal basis.

        I encourage genuinely interested WUWT readers to see (2017) “Sugar or fat? – Metabolic requirements for immunity to viral infection”; freely available on-line & relatively easy scientific reading. On an earlier WUWT WuhanFlu thread I responded to another commentator denigrating “sugar” (glucose) so will not repeat myself & I’ve no time to type a synopsis for above link.

        • In the last few years, I’ve read over 30 books, read hundreds of PubMed articles and trials, watched 100s of hours of lectures by the leading researchers in biochemistry and feel compelled to say you’re simply ill-informed and misreading/emphasing how destructive dietary sugars (carbs) are to the human body. You should have noted that (1) there is no such thing as essential carbs for humans. Period. You can live forever on nothing but fats and proteins. The body, through a process called gluconeogenesis, the liver produces all the glucose the body needs from proteins. Further, you failed to note that the T-cells can live happily just on ketones (see the section on the Warburg effect). And still further, you failed to mention the importance of cholesterol to the immune system (those T-cells). T-cells can live and thrive and be very happy in a ketogenic state. The few cells that have to have glucose (eg. red blood cells), can be fully satisfied by the liver. It’s all part of the duel fuel design of the human body some call evolution over millennia.

          The short answer is using an article on biochemistry focusing solely on a tiny aspect of the pathways simply ignores so many things as to make your post irrelevant as to diet and it’s consequence and a thorough lack of understanding of even the basics of fuels and their metabolism and impacts.

          Actually, if you do a modicum of research into the bioemd pathways that the biochemist have plotted over the last few years, metabolic syndrome (aka insulin resistance) it the primary cause of obesity – search Pubmed for dozens of clinical trials as well as an overwhelming number of videos, articles and journals describing how metabolic syndrome layers on fat, maintains high levels of insulin and follows the pathways to obesity.

          Also, it is the primary cause of type 2 diabetes – go search for the Kraft Test and find a doctor that will order it for you (in case you might get your insurance to pay for it). Beyond question, 83% of all Americans fit into one of the Kraft test patterns for diabetes.

          Also, Azheimer’s disease is increasingly being called “type 3 diabetes” with it’s primary cause — metabolic syndrome.

          Also, see the research of Dr. Thomas Seyfried by searching “Cancer as a Metabolic Disease” which provide details of proving the Warburg Hypothesis. There are many excellent youtube videos by Seyfried explaining this which most lay people can understand even though it might take a few times through. Plus his publications by the same name.

          Also, one could go on and on. The reason is not only is the Western Diet so loaded with glucose and fructose but it also creates the greatest inflammatory chronic condition known to biology. All proven at the biological molecular cellular level by all those PhDs in those high tech labs. For example, chronic inflammation is a primary risk factor for cardio-vascular disease.

          Also, even in the article you cite, you should have noted the important role cholesterol plays (it feeds the white blood cells). If you had researched further, you would have found reports that CV-19 causes cholesterol levels to plummet as the disease progresses. You will also have discovered that a huge number of those having metabolic syndrome are on statins. Statins lower cholesterol dramatically as well. The implication is those with metabolic syndrome certainly have poor functioning immune systems, have cholesterol they need to fight invaders is artificially lowered and the CV-19 simply crushes what levels they do have. It’s a connect-the-dots exercise.

          For the average reader, your diet is the one controllable factor you can use to reduce/eliminate chronic inflammation, reverse obesity, reverse type 2 diabetes, dramatically improve your immune system, reduce arterial plaque build up in your arteries and avoid a premature death. There, literally, is an increasing mountain of evidence. These diets include Keto, Paleo, Carnivore, Adkins, etc., and are all low carb diets of under 50 grams carbs(sugars) intake a day.

          Thanks for your post since some may benefit from this thread and do research so they can prove to themselves if dietary (lifestyle_) change is something they should do.. Goldrider’s summary is highly accurate regarding diet.

          • @cedarhill, – Hey buddy, I replied to you & it unintentionally got posted at the (current) bottom of this old thread. Best wishes!

  4. Maybe slightly OT, but being in several of the danger zones I would be pleased if more of the boffins would look for sucessful treatments which might work very soon rather than look for a vaccine which may or may not work next year.

    • There is a huge amount of money to be made with a vaccine that will be wanted by 7.5 billion people. The last thing that the ‘boffins’ want to do is find a successful treatment. Nor do they want the pandemic to follow the normal course of ‘dying out’ as SARS did before they have managed to get a working vaccine.

    • The Klimawarmi people of various leafy environs blow smoke up your arse and claim to be able to cure everything from gender inequity to low tides. Might be worth a few billion of research. Or not. You don’t really get to choose anyway.

  5. Most common folks of average intelligence understand antibody -d riven immunity Antibodies are very specfic pattern recognizing particles. Once they “stick” to the surface of virus particle, they aggregate and coat the virus. Not only does this prevent the fusion and uncoating, it also rapidly allows for clearance mechanisms to kick-in because of common fragment end (Fc) “handle”. In a process termed “opsonization” by immunologists, phagocytic cells recognize this “opsonin” Fc aggregated “antibody handles” and have specific receptors for it and internalize and use enzymes to degrade the now “gummed up” (neutralized) virus particle.

    That’s all well and good, but there is the other half of the adaptive immune system that is even more important for clearing viruses, the cytotoxic T cell response of CD8+ T cells and the more varied CD4+ T cell cytotoxic and helper functions to clear infected cells before they can release their virus. Thew CD8+ and CD4= T cells recognize much more highly conserved peptide sequences that range in length from 8-11 amino acids (AA) for CD8+ Te cells, to 11-14 AA for CD4+ T cells. The peptides strings are snippets of highly conserved viral non-structural protein (nsp) that have molecular machine functions of the virus’s RNA-dependent-RNA polymerase (RDRP) to the highly conserved proteinase. The proteinases are peptide bond (a carbon-nitrogen bond) scissors that must recognize very specific location signals in the viral poly-peptide chain that is created from the long =sense viral RNA that invades the cell that then must cut it into smaller sub-unit lengths without cutting at places that destroy the nascent proteins before they can fold into their active conformations. This protein-cutting activity is universal to all corona viruses, and thus the proteinases and the RDRP are non-structural proteins (not carried in with the virus particle, but made from the RNA coding sequence by hijacking the cell’s ribosomes) activity of all corona viruses. These nsp’s are molecular machines for the virus that carry out very specific molecular functions that generally Do Not lend themselves to mutations of key AA sequences, thus there must remain conserved “homology” across the coronoa viruses, and the more closely related, like within the beta-corona viruses, more homology exists (very few changes).

    So that cytotoxic activity of memory T cell’s that have been primed by a related beta-corona viruses can likely recognize some or many of the same common corona-virus “epitope” sequences from SARS-CoV-2 infected cells and can then begin their attack and kill infected cells even if their are no SAR-CoV-2 antibodies in the host. This is one of the leading hypothesis (pre-existing T-cell immunity to related cornoa viruses) on why so many of us are asympotomatically infected by SARS-Cov-2, and some may shed some virus at detectable titers, but essentially never get sick.

    Cellular immunologists have understood this broad picture of T-cell cytotoxic responses to viruses for 30+ years now (deeply funded HIV research starting the 80’s drove a lot of new insights to T cell immunity). The last 3 decades immunologists and virologists are still work out the many details and complexities of all these T cell recognition processes in a vast number of viral infections, tumor-immunology, and in aberrant responses of auto-immunity due to pathological T cell responses and how it is all coordinated and restrained to keep most of us healthy. Their are constantly new insights to how T cell memory responses are formed and maintained over many decades between exposures, for the T cell memory to be able to quickly re-engage after lying “dormant” for so long, and also importantly why it wanes and gradually disappears as we age.

    • I wonder if in general the relevant memory T cells in people living in Asia have already been primed.

  6. A big player in the seasonality differences of cold vs flu is that influenza virus has a lipid envelope that is part of a requirement to gain entry into a cell. These envelopes are generally very sensitive to heat/humidity, which is largely why you don’t see flu in the summer. Rhinoviruses, the major cause of colds, are non-enveloped and typically more tolerant to the heat/humidity. It was expected early on that as summer temps approached, then this cover-19 would die out since it is enveloped. The MERS virus (can we still call it ‘MERS’?) is also a coronavirus, with an envelope, yet it saw some increased infection rates during summer months. So, I guess all the expert predictions will have to wait until the end of summer.

  7. Rud, correct me if I’m wrong…ok?

    From what I think I understand….they are testing antibodies to see how many people have been exposed
    ….and at the same time saying they are finding a lot of people that tested positive, got sick…and have no anti-bodies
    If that’s true…then the antibody tests are worthless to try and find out how many people have been exposed…which is what they are trying to do

    ..and the numbers they are putting out saying how many have been exposed…is also worthless

    …that sorta falls right in line with what you’re thinking….I think??

  8. “If this naiveté hypothesis is correct, then the country should be opened immediately”

    Why?
    We know that for some reason some immune systems respond better than others, possibly forestalling symptoms. Why does the possibility of this being due to prior contact with other coronaviruses make a difference? It doesn’t change the population mortality.

        • Nick Stokes – 11:45 am
          Unhelpful. What does that have to do with the naiveté hypothesis?

          Nothing it addresses the issue of why is the world on lock down? You and I and everyone else will face contact with the virus at some point. Should we stay on lock down until a vaccine is available? How long is that, and what shape will humanity be in by then? Hiding in our houses for another six weeks isn’t going to save us from contacting the virus. Why do you you think differently if you in fact do?

  9. Rud Istvan,

    thank you for this essay.

    A question about masks. In case I might be infected but symptom-free, would it not be prudent or responsible of me to wear a mask in public, such as when shopping?

    • Yes, but that is a small time window. Infected, still asymptomatic, but meaningfully virus shedding is estimated to be about 1 day to at worst three days, and (since no symptomatic cough) primarily via contact transmission. Simple hand washing before shopping (infected but asymptomatic hands from face touching) should suffice.

      • Rud, I found this from So. Korea’s head of Infection Control to be excellent, especially, as to transmission. It’s in Korean but with English closed captioning.
        One reason So. Korea and Taiwan fared better is that, early on, they didn’t believe a word China (or, the WHO) were saying and assumed the Chinese were lying.
        This IS from head of Infection Control–So. Korea and is excellent.
        Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea | ASIAN BOSS
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&feature=youtu.be

        Taiwan releases December email to WHO showing unheeded warning about coronavirus
        https://fxn.ws/2VhXE3j

      • Well there’s the other ‘thought’ that with the mask on, you kind of refrain from touching your face etc – until you get back to the car and pull out one of those cleaning wipes and rub your hands thoroughly.

      • Rong. More like a week, and you don’t have to cough. Singing will do. Talking louder more than softly…

      • Rud Istvan: Yes, but that is a small time window. Infected, still asymptomatic, but meaningfully virus shedding is estimated to be about 1 day to at worst three days,

        Since I can’t tell when the window opens and closes, it’s probably responsible to wear the mask whenever I shop or otherwise encounter crowded conditions.

      • David S April 19, 2020 at 10:57 am
        So how do we get rid of coronavirus?

        Reply
        Mark Luhman April 19, 2020 at 11:13 am
        You don’t.

        Bingo! So why are we hiding in our houses watching the economy tank?

        Stevek April 19, 2020 at 11:14 am
        We mitigate just enough so hospitals are not overwhelmed.

        So let’s overwhelm the economy.

    • We don’t. We mitigate just enough so hospitals are not overwhelmed. Open as much as possible. Herd immunity eventually reached.

      Right now we are putting trillions of dollars in debt on the next generation. Funny thing is I have noticed the next generation doesn’t get a vote on that matter, since they are under 18 or yet to be born. Very easy to kick the can down the road. Kicking the can down the road is immoral in my opinion.

    • We don’t. It just become another one added to soup of biologically active organisms that, in the long term, the human race is living in equilibrium with. The question is akin to zebras asking how they can get rid of lions.

    • David S
      I think that the eradication of small pox gives some insight on what would be required. Simplistically, I think that it would take universal vaccination with a vaccine either specific to this virus, or all corona viruses.

    • 1. You get it, don’t know it, make antibodies to it and your immune system eats it up.
      2. You get it, know about it because you feel a bit lousy, make antibodies to it and your immune system eats it up.
      3. You get it, feel real lousy, get admitted – heaven forbid get vented – get some high dose Vit C or HCQ – make antibodies to it and your immune system eats it up.
      4. You get it, feel real lousy – get admitted – die – or you’re too afraid to go to hospital and you die at home (or most tragically alone in a retirement home)
      #3 and #4 comprise 0.3-0.7% of the population.

  10. Thank you Rud, some of the most sensible thinking on this I’ve come across.

    Have you seen the recent surveys showing 60% positive tests on the Charles de Gaulle, 50% in a homeless shelter in Boston and 32% of random people in the street also in Boston? Tests for the virus not antibodies. Be interested in your thoughts on this and why the proportions infected might be higher than the 15-20% seen elsewhere.

    • What was notable about the homeless folks in Boston who tested positive is that none of them (147) had any symptoms. Sounds like a really wimpy virus if it can’t even make sick people whose immune systems are probably not in optimal condition due to poor nutrition, stress, smoking, drug and alcohol abuse. One thing, though, I bet few to none of them do is take ACE inhibitors for hypertension and other conditions. Let he who has ears hear.

  11. “If this naiveté hypothesis is correct, then the country should be opened immediately”

    And if its wrong we should not? So how does one prove or disprove your hypothesis…immediately? The trouble is to prove or disprove the hypothesis will by itself take time, so you should have reworded the “opened immediately” to “if demonstrated to be true then open immediately”.

    Science takes time. I would hate to be the one to jump to conclusions that end up killing a lot of people.

    There is certainly a lot of mystery remaining in this pandemic. I for one agree there must have been some form of partial immunity in many people. I also always understood the difference between confirmed tested and the actual number exposed and infected. I assumed it was at least 20 to 1, but now that seems to be way to low… If this can be confirmed (through testing for antibodies in larger groups) then that fact alone would argue for reopening up for business – as this is would be no worse than the annual Flu ONCE we make it past the initial infection spike (which could have over filled healthcare facilities). With more and more ventilators available, and many hospitals sending workers home to conserve money, the chance of a spike exceeding capacity is becoming exceedingly low.

    • Thank you Robert of Texas (April 19, 2020 at 11:03 am ) for saying this so well–I will take note for future reference–as I so ineloquently sounded off to Rud–

    • Santa Clara county – small #’s but somewhat representative undertaken by a immensely credible group

    • “So how does one prove or disprove your hypothesis…immediately?”
      Do we have any large record of how many have been infected with these 4 common corona virus colds in the last 2 years?
      If the number is large enough how have they fared with COV-19?
      Not just got it or had it, but how many serious and how many deaths?
      How does this compare with the population at large?
      If the proportion with serious cases or deaths is very significantly less then we have “Rud vacine”.

      • Start by testing the CVN-71 crew for the presence of the four common cold coronaviruses and COVID-19 anti-bodies. Then evaluate any correlation between those and the severity of outcomes, focusing on any asymptomatic survivors without COVID-19 antibodies.

    • Yup they locked down everyone that doesn’t need to be locked down but failed locking down those that need lockdown the most. Ridiculous.

        • I think best to try and convince those in general population that have high risk factors to stay at home, do online groceries etc. at least do this for a few months until rest of population gets herd immunity. Hopefully in few months the Gilead drug is approved and we then have an effective drug. We have to convince the high risk population that people that have no symptoms can infect them, so they really do have to isolate.

          • Stevek, have you tried online grocery shopping lately? It ain’t pretty, and it sure as hell ain’t cheap. Not a feasible option at the moment.

          • Eustace , yes I agree, I think law should be passed giving the older people priority for online delivery.

          • And the “rest” of the population can get as much herd immunity as it likes. The virus will still be out there and will strike when the opportunity presents albeit less frequently.

            And since we haven’t yet established herd immunity to the common cold why should we assume we can do any better with this corona?

      • Thinking about it there is no way to lock down a long term care facility. They need assistance everyday.

        • Do not let perfection be the enemy of the good. There are many steps which can be taken to reduce risk to the vulnerable:

          * Facility sentinel testing (random diagnostic testing of non-symptomatic people, especially medical personnel and cleaning crews)

          * Restrict all employees to working only in one facility

          * Comprehensive antibody testing of all employees, with more frequent diagnostic testing of employees who lack antibodies

          * Immediate removal and quarantine of any person who tests positive, and diagnostic testing of all employees and residents after any positive test (at least those not having antibodies) & external contact tracing.

          • Even without any testing, simply keeping track of the number of people reporting respiratory symptoms to doctors, clinics, hospitals will tell you if there is a problem developing.

            Everyone is much too obsessed with testing. Long before we had genetic testing we had Public Heath methods that should be at the forefront.

            Dr Birx has made this point repeatedly but somehow it is not sinking in. You don’t need testing to control C-19. You need to assume everyone with symptoms has C-19 and contact trace and isolate until you know otherwise.

      • Good question, it would seem to me that it would not be so difficult to control the risk of spreading the virus in these facilities; first by testing or requiring PPE for those who are taking care of the elderly, cleaning the rooms, and having visiting rooms with cameras to allow visitors to talk with their families without transmitting the virus to those living in the quarters.
        Of course hindsight is 20/20.

        • It’s not like there were a few bad actors among the facilities. 420 facilities had out breaks in NJ

          • That’s what bothers me, it seems as though they are all not taking the right measures to protect the patients. On the other hand the data is scant and no one seems interested in looking closely to correct the problem.
            On the other hand we just heard that one our close neighbors recently passed away in his high 80’s due to the corona virus in a nursing home.
            One has to be suspicious that all deaths are now claimed to be from the virus.
            To be complete one would need to compare the recent death rate in those homes with the typical.
            For example the normal annual death rate in NYC is over 50,000. how much has changed from that number should be of interest in my humble opinion.

    • That sounds similar to what we’ve seen in Canada ( going by news reports). A pretty poor job in many locations of instituting safety measures of masks and more committed hygiene practices in seniors facilities.
      So, we should soon be at the point of evaluating how this virus compares with the seasonal flu for mortality. Should we shut down the economy or should we institute strict social measures for vulnerable people? Or let them decide for themselves where appropriate?

  12. If this naiveté hypothesis is correct, then the country should be opened immediately using the steps outlined by President Trump on Thursday. THAT is a HUGE deal economically.

    Whether the country is opened this afternoon or six months from now, the virus will still be there. I’d rather face it as a flabby 75 year old with a healthy economy than a flabby 76 year old with the economy on life support.

    • It was a “boutique” made-up “problem” only ever of interest to “woke” moral preeners who’d never seen a REAL problem; and BTW never seen the inside of a history, geology, or anthropology book.

      My hope is this is Millennials’ “WWII” moment and they’ll get some perspective on former silliness.

  13. “more fatal in people over 65 (63%)”
    Europe is seeing 93% of deaths over 60 … I think the US number over 65 is higher … much higher …

    • Probably. But those are last weeks numbers for NYC. Europe is also skewed by the elderly population in Italy.

  14. re Hypertension, diabetes, and obesity (in the under age 60 less impacted cohort) as the main co-morbidities

    How much hypertension? Treated or untreated? Most folks over 60 are on statins and blood pressure meds and are in the pre-diabetes zone. If blood pressure meds are only at the small dose level, and one is only in prediabetes are those co-morbidities? Oo is it untreated hypertension? Is it uncontrolled diabetes requiring insulin or medformin or etc…? Obesity has a measure (by definition), but saying “hypertension” or “diabetes” (yes using with scare quotes) are co-morbidities are scaring a lot of the over 65 folks. Can you give us a finer grained assessment of co-morbidities?

    • Start @ 10:22. The data that Fauci said needs to be looked at quickly has been ignored (minimum 52% of dead patients in Italy were taking ACE inhibitors/ARBs).

      • He only heard that on Bloomberg this morning ??

        He should follow WUWT. I though Willis brought this exact same breakdown of comorbities in Italy here, maybe two weeks ago.

    • I posted earlier that 41% of deaths as of today in New Jersey were in long term care facilities. I think that is distorting the co-morbidity thing

      • yep, how morbid is morbid? 65+ percent of folks in 65-75 have high blood pressure, but if they’re taking medication and blood pressure is under control, are they still morbid? And half of folks 65+ are prediabetic, are they morbid if they haven’t progressed to diabetes? Those with new diagnosis of diabetes who control it back down with diet into the pre-diabetes zone, are they still morbid? Those with diabetes aged ≥75 years have higher rates than those aged 65–74 years for most complications — so how morbid is morbid?

        • REALLY morbid, because none of those meds with the possible exception of metformin for diabetics actually addresses the metabolic abnormality underlying the entire cluster of “chronic diseases of civilization.” Overwhelmed by floods of glucose caused by over-use of refined carbohydrates not present in the dietary until roughly 1885 creates a cascade of inflammatory and energetic HAVOC at the level of literally EVERY exchange of energy on the cellular level. Not least of which is the ACE2 receptor.

          It is the very diet we’ve been exhorted by the “Experts” to eat for the last 45 years (6-11 servings daily of grains, breads, rice, potatoes and sugar) which is killing us now, from all the co-morbidities mentioned PLUS COVID-19. When will the “authorities” finally admit Ancel Keys’ lipid hypothesis has been DEBUNKED?

    • LGP, that would be nice, but NYC is not reporting with that level of granularity, and the city reports are my source. I suspect docs are just looking at other meds (standard chart stuff) so ‘diagnosed and treated’. Obesity is easy from weight and height based BMI.

  15. Australian leaders may have to watch their backs for what they are doing havent got a clue this is just the flu most German and Swedish expert epiomiologist say at Least Brazil and Sweden are not following your path Brasilians had had enough cheer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4Rk9sAz64s if you understand it cheers. Your loockdowns are just prolonging the pain this is a normal flu virus and needs to immunize your peoples all the data is showing this millions are already infected *see antibody studies showing 50 to 80% higher infection rates and the mortality rate is well below the common flu for old people already dying from other conditions. Get a life and stop this nonsense. You have 2 weeks before there will be total mayhem due to hunger, unemployment, suicide and death for your children not old people like use. Fauci has to go Cuomo and maybe Trump if he does not WAKE quick smart to the con job he has been led by the CDC ect. Cuomo and Fauci should not be allowed to trasmit total BS he knows nothing about viral epidemiology or has been wrongly advised. Flattening the curve will do nothing it will simply prolong the pain. As Willis has shown ALL the country incidence curves are the same with or without lockdowns but the economic costs will destroy the world and your childrens lives WAKE UP!!

  16. my theory has been that it is a weaker virus than the flu (no sick kids, asymptomatic cases) but strong enough to kill ar risk elderly and other compromised immune system people …
    truly isolate the at risk (no, our lockdowns are not isolation) and the death count would go away …

  17. “Those racial groups have a disproportionate amount of obesity.”

    Woah, Rud. Could there possibly be another explanation? For example, that they disproportionately live in high-density housing, which helps to spread the virus?

    Here in the UK, there are very few obese people of Asian origin. At least, if my area is representative. And yet, so we’re told, Asian people are over-represented in the statistics of admissions to intensive care, compared to the whole population.

    • Neil

      It is a long established medical fact that asian people of all ages livng in the west have a much higher proportion of Diabetes and heart disease than the indigenous population

      https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/medical/south-asian-background

      As regards CV this sector of the population also have much more inter generational living and family get togethers making them more likely to transmit the disease amongst family groups.

      Tonyb

      • It would be interesting to know if those Asian patients in the UK are hypertensive, and if so if they use ACE inhibitors to control it. Calcium channel blockers (CCB) are the primary mode of treatment in E Asian countries due to ACE inhibitors frequently causing a dry cough side effect in E Asians. I wonder if they use CCB when they live in the west where ACE inhibitors rule?

      • It’s called the “nutrition transition.” White Europeans have been eating large quantities of refined flour and sugar longer; since around 1750. Those of African, Asian, or Native American stock have only been eating same since around 1900; tends to hit them like a freight train. Ref: Nutrition & Physical Degeneration, Weston A. Price. Also search “Pima Indians.”

        I cannot emphasize strongly enough to eat what your “old-country” ancestors ate–NOT highly processed packaged crap like breakfast cereal with skim milk and sugar. Genes MATTER; the expression of them (epigenetics) is up to YOU. But we need MUCH better information from the so-called “authorities” in whom I lost all faith a long time ago.

    • Yup. Another theory is vitamin D.
      because its not fat people its dark skinned people that seem over represented.
      (yes also fat people, but not as many white fat people)

    • There was a really good opinion piece in the WSJ that tied the excess mortality in darker skinned individuals to a lack of Vitamin D3 which is critical to the immune response. The author was a medium complected Indian doctor who takes 5,000 units of Vitamin D3 daily to avoid a deficiency. Darker complected individuals would require even more. The evolution of lighter skin in higher latitudes must be due to some differential reproductive success for that mutation. It wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to hypothesize that increased efficiency of production of Vitamin D could be what provided the edge. Mortality rates among darker skinned peoples who have emigrated north or south would be expected to be higher than those who didn’t migrate.

      It’s tough to talk dispassionately about such a tragedy, but we can only make progress on issues such as these if we understand the underlying causes.

    • Age is a number that is often different from one’s biological age. Jack LaLanne died at 96, still in good physical condition. Coincidentally, he died from pneumonia, for which he refused to see a doctor.

  18. Something else that could be in play regarding antibodies is Antibody Dependent Enhancement of viral entry. It is very uncommon, to date I think only Dengue virus has been definitively shown to use this, possibly a couple of other viruses. In this scenario an antibody would attach to the virus and when the antibody is then taken in by a white blood cell, the virus is given entry and can now replicate within that cell. There was a paper just published last month looking at MERS infection through this route (https://jvi.asm.org/content/94/5/e02015-19.long).
    I think this is the only paper with such results, so still preliminary, but could possibly explain a couple of things. 1. Some instances where people have been infected, recovered, and test positive again for having the virus. 2. How an enveloped virus could possibly still remain infectious in warmer temps irrespective of the status of the condition of its envelope.

  19. This study says that whilst more women are obese than men they have controlled resultant problems such as heart disease and diabetes better than men.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190219170105.htm

    Also I note that in the UK the numbers of men over 80 has risen by 50% in the last 15 years and for women over 80 the numbers have risen by 25%

    So many more elderly men than in the past, many of whom will have several serious illnesses and who will unfortunately fall easy prey to such illnesses as flu or CV.

    The last serious flu epidemic was in 2017, so the 2018 and 2019 flu seasons would fortunately not have killed too many of this cohort, which presumably means a greater proportion were going to be susceptible in 2020 to something

    Tonyb

  20. Thank you, an excellent post.
    Masks are not completely useless though, they let you identify simpletons more quickly.

    • We’re under an “executive order” that we MUST wear masks in public now, or the Governor is going to smite us or something. Hey, at least it screws up facial-recognition AI . . .

  21. Here in France we have the case of Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier whose crew has been contaminated by the Covid 19, 1046 of 1760 men have been tested positive with the virus, with a little more than half of them beeing asymptomatic…

  22. I watched a video the other day on a new type of ventilator which the Italians came up with. The device is a helmet which fits over the head. It is used as an intermediary step before intubating a patient. The Italians say that they have very good results with using the device. … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuTqecGcwTw

    • That takes away the fear factor for medical personnel. Some doctors intubate patients because they’re afraid of aerosolization of virus with high flow oxygen (e.g., nasal cannula).

      Yesterday, an ED doc says “if they don’t do well with 6 liters by NC, we tube them. Not risking exposing staff to aerosolization with higher flow O2.” oy…

      https://twitter.com/signaturedoc/status/1250072724057264128

  23. Here in France we have the case of Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, 1046 of the crew of 1760 have been tested positive to the Covid19, a little more than half of them beeing asymptomatic..

  24. Rud Istvan:

    This also explains why a virus that cannot possibly be racist

    Sorry that conclusion is rubbish. It is even a rather ridiculous way to describe it. A virus can be “racist” : cycle cell anemia. Maybe you should consider whether there can be racially weighted response to a virus.

    I’m inclined to think that in the current example it is that “people of colour” are often poor and fat. But the possibility of a genetic predisposition certainly can not be rules on the grounds of political correctness.

      • Thanks for the reply Rud but you don’t address the point. ” Maybe you should consider whether there can be racially weighted response to a virus.”

        Racism is defined as a prejudicial attitude, and since viruses don’t think they cannot be prejudiced. To say a virus cannot be prejudiced is a straw man fallacy since no one was saying they could. Stating this truism does not inform us about the presence or otherwise of any genetic predisposition to being vulnerable to a virus.

        Though sickle cell anemia can be a survival advantage in countries where malaria is endemic, it is a weakness in countries were it is not. Since one of the critical conditions seen in COVID-19 is hypoxemia SCD may well be a disadvantage in the present case too. That would not be SARS-cov-2 being “racist” but may be a factor in the disproportionate number of those of African origin being affected. ( Though as already stated this is probably mainly social, not genetic. )

        I have immense respect for the depth and breadth of you knowledge but you seem not to be displaying your usual level of insight on this one.

        • Well, actually I did. Frontally. To you explicitly. Sorry you did not grog facts and logic.

          You said indelibly above that a virus could be ‘racist’, citing misspelled sickle cell anemia. I responded that your specific example disease is hereditary, not infectious.

          And elsewhere on this thread, have explained yet again both the epidemiology and hard local facts behind the differential mortality in Blacks and Hispanics. Simple: factually differentially more obesity in those racial cohorts.

        • Well, sorry you disagree. I specifically cited NYC mayor DeBlasio, who actually DID made this nonsensical inference. If you would just re-read my post and take a breath.

    • In particular the older generations were prone to bad eating habits. Those are the ones who have been mentioned in the news of late as less resistant. I remember a housekeeper/nanny back in the 1950/60s, Lena Love. She was almost as wide as she was tall. Carried a 5 lb coffee can around for her spit can. I remember her cooing over my baby sisters, and she would feed them little pats of butter during the day.

      Along similar lines I have noticed that many Caucasian patients depicted on news shows tend to be heavier built folk/overweight.

  25. There are some parts of this that don’t make much sense to me.
    For example:

    “These aspirate particles dry out rapidly in dry indoor winter air (high surface to volume ratio) and remain circulating for many hours. In summer humidity, they don’t dry out and sink ‘rapidly’ to where they cannot be inhaled.”

    The assumption that summer air is humid might be true on the US East coast, but in other areas it is far from true.

    That sort of invalidates the claim:

    “Dr. Fauci might be right that it could be seasonal like flu, implying primary infection route would be inhaled aspirate. In which case, all the public mask nonsense is pointless.”

    And why is this? It is a giant leap with no basis as far as I can see. Do you have proof that mask wearing by an entire population has zero effect on colds/flu?
    Similarly:

    “Or, it is ‘just’ another corona virus, the three recommended mitigation measures work, and public masks are still nonsense–unless you have active mild symptoms: dry cough plus fever >100.4F. In which case you should quarantine yourself and not be in public even with a mask.”

    The whole point is that people are infectious BEFORE being symptomatic, so this just wouldn’t work, whereas wearing a mask to prevent spraying out droplets when just speaking would actually be very useful.

    • “The assumption that summer air is humid might be true on the US East coast, but in other areas it is far from true.”

      summer air always has more water vapour content: kg/m^3

      The rest which you failed to quote was discussing RH, when you take cold winter air with low kg/m^3 and warm it up to 24 deg C. That brings RH down to about 30%. That is the context in which you need to read the rest of Rud’s comments on that subject.

      • “summer air always has more water vapour content”
        Look at data for Alice Springs, Australia. The humidity is higher in winter.

        • Why don’t you cite what I ACTUALLY wrote instead of selectively cropping it off?

          Then learn the difference between humidity and relative humidity.

  26. I thought that the common cold virus was called rhinovirus. Am I wrong? I was listening to a medical doctor saying on a video on you tube that no one has isolated this virus and its presence is being inferred by RNA fragments collected from the lungs of people who have died but these fragments could have other causes but I don’t know if this is true. I feel that the high death rate for people with underlying health issues could be because normal hospital treatment has been scaled back or stopped while we have this pandemic crises it is going much the same way as 1999-2000 in which the young fit and healthy have been panicked into thinking they are going to die of a horrible disease which no one can cure.

    • Common colds are caused by three different types of viruses:
      Nonenveloped RNA rhinoviruses are the most common.
      But there are 4 enveloped RNA coronas and about 20 enveloped DNa adenos also. All produce essentially the same symptoms. Covered in post #1.

      • What of the rhetoric that RT-PCR is amplifying any of the 4 enveloped RNA coronas, not solely the ‘new’ Wuhan virus?

    • The doctor would seem to be wrong as there are numerous electron microscope images of viruses.

  27. “These aspirate particles dry out rapidly in dry indoor winter air (high surface to volume ratio) and remain circulating for many hours. In summer humidity, they don’t dry out and sink ‘rapidly’ to where they cannot be inhaled. ”

    Problem. Many households in sub-topical locations do not have air conditioning. They may warm part of the house (e.g. living rooms) with open gas heaters. Gas creates a warm humid environment. Some still use wood burners. Sleeping quarters are un-heated. I guesstimate that > 80 of NZ homes fall into this category. For most of NZ, and much of Australia, indoor and outdoor winter environment is cool and HUMID. Summer is warm and DRY. We still have the typical winter flu season, June, July August, like clockwork. Most of NZ has ~ 800 mm of rainfall during these months.

    I have read an explanation which may apply: During cool weather we naturally produce more nose mucus (and eye discharge?) to which a virus can attach. This is particularly the case when we venture outdoors. Meaning, that the old apparently illogical belief that if one gets cold and wet one can “catch a cold” has some merit. I dunno.

    Whatever, there is more to this seasonal thingy. THINK folks, there must be an explanation.

    Cheers

    M

    • I have read several claims that the coronavirus is quite temperature sensitive and prefers cooler temps and that hot temps are effective at killing it, yet temps that are not too hot for humans…thus the bodies natural fever to kill viruses. It has been suggested that very hot saunas are useful in combatting the virus.

  28. Male dependency; a further cost of our ‘Y’ chromosome, light weight for speedy ‘swimmers’ .

  29. Covid-19 is as fake as climate change.

    The United States, Italy, Spain, England and France together have more confirmed CoVid-19 cases than the entire rest of the world combined.
    The United States, Italy, Spain, England and France together constitute 74% of the global CoVid-19 deaths.
    Covid-19 is NOT a “global” pandemic.

    NY, NJ, MA and PA together have more Covid-19 cases than the entire rest of the United States.
    NY and NJ together have more Covid-19 deaths than the entire rest of the United States.
    The U.S. asymptomatic ratio is 88%. That means 88% of confirmed cases don’t wind up in the hospital or morgue. Only 5% of cases are fatal. Covid-19 doesn’t seem all that contagious or fatal.
    Covid-19 is NOT a national problem.

    The first step in a solution is correctly identifying the problem.

    Shutting down the entire US and global economies was driven by the speculative and erroneous theories of “experts” that Covid-19 spread exponentially when the data was clearly second order. Much like IPCC’s RCP 8.5, a computer model stacked on assumptions with a 0.1% connection to reality.

    Then the public and politicians were stampeded to the precautionary principle by a fake news MSM propaganda machine intent on getting Trump.

  30. “unless you have active mild symptoms: dry cough plus fever >100.4F. In which case you should quarantine yourself and not be in public even with a mask.”

    This is where experts fall on their hammer. An aged care worker in Sydney spread the virus in the facility before she was diagnosed. She only had an irritated throat. A habit of wearing a mask would have stopped the spread (assuming that she didn’t take it off when alone) to a large degree. People, though, will not wear it unless they suspect that they have it, and should stay home, or everyone else is wearing it. They are unlikely to wear one at the least hint of sickness if nobody else is.

  31. Reminds me of the 80-15-5 principle from veterinary medicine:

    80% of the time the condition is self-limiting and resolves regardless of intervention or none;
    5% of the time it will be fatal from the outset, interventions if any unsuccessful;
    15% of the time it matters what, how and when you treat.

    Eh?

    I like vets. They tend to be less prone to God-like delusions of omnipotence and drama generally.

  32. Of the four cold producing corona viruses, three are strongly seasonal, one is not. All are “coated”

  33. Interesting that everyone writes so adamantly that they know about Covid 19 effects etc… In truth nobody does and surprises are turning up all the time. Lots of reports recently about relatively young people who have had it with symptoms over 7 weeks later , often worse than original and sometimes debilitating. Explain that if you can. You can find just about any viewpoint possible on this site alone. That should tell you that there we are nowhere close to a consensus on this virus or what may happen in the future.

    • There are even those that hypothesize that there is a flu going around but that people are being made gravely ill by 60 GHz 5G and its effect on oxygen and the damage that does to hemoglobin and further the damage caused by the released iron ions, they claim the rollout of 5G maps well with the serious centers of the crisis. Not my field.

      • 5G is certainly something to keep an eye on, but I haven’t been able to verify that 60 GHz is being used anywhere.

        • The higher the frequency of EM radiation the less it penetrates a conductor ( the skin effect.)

    • “Explain that if you can?” Vaping epidemic that was all the buzz 4 months ago, destroying young people’s lungs; marijuana legalization encouraging increasing use among many age groups; the flood tide of sugar that Millennials and Gen Z have been raised on as their primary food group; and tobacco smoking which is lower but has not gone away. Not to mention (because it’s not NICE to mention!) that younger people in the population have a burden of disease also–co-morbidities like heart defects, Type 1 diabetes, auto-immune disorders, meds for mental health conditions, etc. Of course, the media never mentions those.

      • “Type 1 diabetes, auto-immune disorders,”

        Yes because if you mention these, vaccines would be suspected.

  34. History tells us what happens next. In the 1918 spanish flu epidemic governments came under pressure to open up churches, meeting houses, schools, etc after getting the spread of the virus under control.

    The 2nd wave of infection was more deadly than the first.

    The 3rd wave fizzled out the next year due to herd immunity.

    My conclusion, no end till herd immunity established. Deaths to achieve this unknown.

    • It’s believed that the second wave was a mutated virus different from the first. There likely wasn’t enough infection to confer herd immunity. For whatever reason, it just died out.

  35. Two MDs , Drs Brownstein and Ng from a holistic medical practise are claiming that
    they are achieving a 100% success rate in treating Convid-19 patients,including those already seriously ill, with a combination of three easily available, cheap, immune enhancing supplements, namely
    – Vitamin A
    – Vitamin C ,
    – Vitamin D.
    see:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgz5hRV2V-E&feature=emb_logo

    This treatment combination is similar to that being advocated by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai:
    https://shiva4senate.com/immune-and-economic-health-for-america-coronavirus/

    If there is any truth in these claims, widespread use of the protocol could profoundly
    alter the clinical and economic course of the pandemic.

    • Vitamins couldn’t hurt, especially D, with zinc.

      But Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai is not a medical doctor. He claims to have invented email, to be a medical student and defends these false assertions by being notoriously litigious. He’s the Michael Mann of anti-GMO advocates and antivaxxers. He’s also famous for having been comedienne Fran Drescher’s BF, although some six years her junior.

    • Here is some anecdotal evidence which I can attest to. Around 4 weeks ago I noticed my nearby neighbor sounded like he had a bad cold/flu. I thought “Oh great”, I had smoked weed with him several days prior. He had recently driven down to LA to empty a storage locker. So I’m thinking of how likely it could be that he caught the Wuhan flu. Then I started to have a runny nose, and could feel the earliest symptoms of my body reacting to something.

      So I started juicing my Rangpur limes and drinking the juice every several hours for the next two days. That took care of my runny nose, and the other sick effects which had just been starting to show up. Almost 2 weeks later, and my neighbor was still feeling the effects of being sick. I am also still using several Indian herbal remedies several times a week as maintenance. Somehow these remedies changed my urinary tests strips from showing my kidney function as abnormal, and on the verge of very abnormal to where after 13 days of use the test strips dropped down to normal kidney function. The test strips showed the first signs of change after six days of using them. This was after using the test strips for the last two years. The actual change was mainly with the micro-albumin count dropping four color changes down to negligible while my creatinine count stopped changing, and now holds steady at a reading of 4.4 every time I test.

      In another odd twist I used one of the remedies on one of my cats about 3 weeks ago. I found her lying on the floor one morning on her side with that look which told me that she was going to die as I have seen others die before. I moved her into a cage outside with the thought that I would have to put her down later in the day. This was undoubtedly the feline parvovirus, aka panluekopenia. Sitting back at my computer I couldn’t stop thinking about it. Then it dawned on me to try one of my Indian herbals which is said to act as a nervine agent. I had a bottle of ashwangandha extract which aids in maintaining even blood pressure.

      I measured what I thought would be a strong dose for the cat, and diluted that with a 1/4 oz of water. Then I squeezed half a Rangpur lime into 2 ounces of water as a rinsing solution. I figured (correctly as it turned out) that she would react strongly to the ashwagandha mix. Pulling her limp body out of the cage I gave her around 1/2 a cc of the ashwagandha solution. She immediately foamed at the mouth, probably from the deionized alcohol base of the extract. I quickly gave her a second dose while wiping away the foaming bubbles. At this point the cat needed her throat cleared immediately from the bubbles. So I shot several cc’s of the Rangpur lime solution into her mouth. In about a half a second she gave a big gulp as she swallowed that liquid. I did this a second time to ensure that her air passages were not obstructed. Then I placed her limp body back into the cage. I went back inside with the thought that I would recheck her in an hour or two. When I came back out, she was sitting upright in the cage with her head up, and her eyes wide open. I opened the cage, she shot out of there, and has been her normal strong self ever since. Have to say that I was a bit amazed at the sequence of events.

      Final thoughts, it is likely that she sucked some of the bubbled ashwaganda solution into her lungs. Is that what did the job? Prior to the treatment I had tried enticing her to eat some canned food. She would not touch it, a sure sign for a cat or a dog of a very serious problem. A dog with parvo will not eat either. Shortly after finishing the treatment, I noticed that she sniffed the canned food and immediately started eating it. It made me think of how a corona virus infection can cause some people to lose smell and taste. Was this similar for the cat? Also made me wonder if ashwagandha can successfully treat other viruses. Lastly, did the Vit C and the claimed medicinal properties of the Rangpur lime aid in Squirrel’s recovery?

  36. Rud,
    Your naivete hypothesis suggests that coronavirus forms of the common cold impart peripheral immunity to COVID-19, or at least provide an alert to the immune system. Is this an analog to cowpox/smallpox immunity? Should those who have recovered from COVID-19 but exhibit weak or no antibodies to it also be tested for common cold coronavirus antibodies? Would these viruses constitute a stop-gap vaccine?

    • Exactly. Wrote about that in Gaia’s Limits chapter 1. Should have put the analogy in the main post. Du-Oh.

    • A further thought you just triggered. Selecting the least bad of the four common cold coronaviruses and using it to infect everybody at risk causes at worst a mild cold, but confers at least partial Covid-19 immunity. Just like Jenner’s magnificent discovery that milkmaids did not get smallpox after cowpox. The basis to this day of smallpox eradication via cowpox inoculation, leaving just a small single pustule scar on the vaccinated shoulder.

      Analog viral immunity.

      As you surmised, we probably already have a reasonably effective live ‘vaccine’ at hand with observational evidence for at least partial efficacy, via CVN71. Lets roll.

      I will pass this along tomorrow to Fauci via email, since my company archive still preserves all his back channels. Just have to reformat portions of my guest post here to be more sciency credible than layman explanatory. Easy few hours of effort.

      • Exactly. The presence of common cold coronavirus antibodies in those who have recovered but exhibit no COVID-19 antibodies would bolster your hypothesis and perhaps identify the most effective strain(s). Keep it rolling.

    • I hope that this proves possible. However the SARS CVs are in a different genus (Alpha-) from the common cold-causing CV (Beta-).

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/

      Cowpox and smallpox both belong to the same genus of giant viruses, Orthopoxvirus.

      The hide of Blossom, the cow from which milkmaid Sarah Nelmes caught cowpox in 1796, is preserved at St. Geroge’s, U. of London, currently working on COVID-19. She went to Dr. Jenner for a rash on her right hand. Today he’d go to prison for conducting a possibly lethal experiment on the eight year-old son of his gardener. But vaccination, the technique he pioneered, has saved countless lives.

      Blossom’s horns are on display at Dr. Jenner’s House, Museum and Garden in Berkeley, Gloucestershire.

      • Oops. Have that backwards. SARS, MERS and SARS-2 are betacoronaviruses. Cold viruses are alpha-.

      • John,
        Wasn’t that addressed in paragraph 9?
        “The four common cold coronaviruses are: 229E and NL63 in the ‘alpha’ serotype group, and OC43 and HKU1 in the ‘beta’ serotype group.”
        However, your comment suggests that the latter would be the more effective in establishing collateral immunity.

        • Yes. If we were to try this approach, a less dangerous betacoronavirus would be the way to go. But I was under the perhaps mistaken impression that all the clod-causing CVs are alpha.

          • Good point, but before anyone gets intentionally infected, start by testing the CVN-71 crew for the presence of anti-bodies to the four common cold coronaviruses and COVID-19. Then evaluate any correlation between those and the severity of outcomes, focusing on any asymptomatic survivors without COVID-19 antibodies.

          • Would be a good place to start. The whole complement of 4800 has now been tested. About 13% are positive for the WuWHOFlu virus.

            One 41 year-old sailor has died. Another is still in ICU, out of eight hospitalized.

            While largely male, hence at increased risk of COVID, the sailors are also mostly young and healthy. Since most didn’t get infected enough for antibodies to show up, it would be hard to say what effect a recent CV-caused cold might have had. Unless most of them were positive for such an infection.

          • Disclaimer: I am an engineer, not a virologist. Any helpful comments from those better versed in the field are welcome.

            John,

            As I understand it there are no levels of infection, only variations in how each individual immune system responds to that infection. As I interpret Rud’s naivete hypothesis, we should expect several classes of response:
            • The virus is sufficiently similar to a previously-encountered virus that the existing suite of anti-bodies can eliminate it. No symptoms, no new antibodies.
            • The virus is sufficiently different that existing anti-bodies are not fully effective. Disease progress is slowed while new anti-bodies are generated. Symptoms are mild to none and level of new anti-bodies is low.
            • The virus is sufficiently novel that no existing anti-bodies are effective. Disease progression is rapid. Outcome depends on patient’s underlying health and the strength of their immune response. Survivors have high levels of new anti-bodies.
            I know this is a gross over-simplification, but it fits that wide range of outcomes and of levels of novel anti-bodies in survivors. I also know I have no access to any data that would bolster or deflate this supposition. But, it’s a thought.

  37. More news about remdesivir, and more suggestion that the drug may be shown to be effective against ‘Rona:
    “The study, led by the its National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) involved two groups of six rhesus macaque monkeys that were intentionally infected with the respiratory disease. One group was treated with remdesivir while the second was not.
    The first group of monkeys was given its first dose of the drug intravenously 12 hours after the initial infection, and then every day for a further six days. Twelve hours after the initial treatment, symptoms of COVID-19 in the monkeys had significantly improved and their conditions continued to improve during the rest of the trial.
    At the end of the test, just one of the six animals treated with remdesivir displayed mild difficulty breathing, while all six animals in the untreated group had difficulty breathing.
    The amount of virus found in their lungs was significantly lower in the treatment group compared to the untreated group, the study stated, and the coronavirus caused less damage to the lungs in the treated monkeys than in the untreated ones.
    “Early treatment with the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir significantly reduced clinical disease and damage to the lungs of rhesus macaques infected with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19,” the NIH wrote in a statement.”

    https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Antiviral-drug-remdesivir-prevents-COVID-19-progression-in-monkeys-study-625102

    • 12 hours after infection is not early, it is close to a premonition of infection. Is this a serious clinical trial?

  38. my vicious coronavirus cold referenced in guest post #1
    =========
    Same symptoms late February west coast. Uncontrollable cough and chills but still within normal temp range.

    Is this like cowpox of old. Could we purposely infect with weaker coronavirus as protection against c-19.

    Maybe this explains the SF Bay Area 85 times higher than expected antibodies.

    • Yup. See explicit comments just above. I should have put the analogy in the main post, since knew about it. Brain cramp

  39. The re-suspension of the bug noted in this post-

    National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2020. Rapid Expert
    Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Survival and Incubation for the COVID-19 Pandemic.
    Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

    https://doi.org/10.17226/25763.

    combined with being coughed on when we went shopping at the end of march has led to our wearing n95 masks anytime we go shopping.

  40. Nothing has change in China. The wet market is open and the lab is open. I think travel to and from China should be banned indefinitely. If Europe doesn’t do the same we should ban them too

  41. Now the Wuhan virus is in the bloodstream, not just in the lungs.

    Still puzzling over the Red Cross statement below:

    https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/coronavirus–covid-19–and-blood-donation.html

    The top priority of the Red Cross is the safety of our donors, volunteers, employees and blood recipients, and we are committed to transparency with the American public during this evolving public health emergency. There are no data or evidence that this coronavirus can be transmissible by blood transfusion, and there have been no reported cases worldwide of transmissions for any respiratory virus including this coronavirus.

    https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/coronavirus–covid-19–and-blood-donation.html

    • Red Cross needs blood donations. Unfortunately, the kidney and cardiac complications of severely ill Covid-19s say they are just wrong. Not the first time. See Hep C.

    • Unfortunately, we can’t presently be sure that recovered patients are indeed immune to reinfection.

    • In Shenzhen, a city just across the border from Hong Kong in southeastern China, contact tracers had identified 2,842 close contacts of coronavirus patients and found that 88 were infected, as of mid-February, according to a World Health Organization report. That’s only 3%.

      They don’t manage to say how many tackers they had to get that feeble result. But has Mosh’ has often pointed out 80% of infections are close family members. That means they found about 18 cases which were not close family members.

      They also fail to give any indication of the number of cases in Shenzhen, but I thinks it’s safe to assume that 18 is a drop in the ocean.

      In short and “army” of contact tracers and implicit intrusion of expecting everyone to give a total list of all personal contacts gains a pittance of useful information.

      Just test all members of the household of anyone testing positive. Simple, effective and a minimum of intrusion.

      This virus does not become an excuse for installing a distopian police state.

  42. Australia is in the somewhat unique position of maybe knocking this virus on the head as in my State of SA with open sniffle testing new cases aren’t emerging. It’s largely been OS travellers and the Diamond Princess with a smattering of contacts with them. We join NT with no new cases and reported infection rates in the eastern States are dropping fast and at last report there’s been only 71 deaths the youngest being 42 years of age and a cruise ship crew member.

    But here’s the rub. Suppose we’re successful at stopping transmission and eliminating the virus altogether where does that leave us maybe along with NZ at some stage. It means everyone coming here or returning has to enter full user pays quarantine with a barrage of testing for 14 days. Goodbye international tourism (Virgin Airlines is already broke) along with a large uni education sector accommodating OS students and so much for elite sports events like Tennis and Golf Opens and Formula 1 to the cycling Tour Down Under, etc. Forget Olympics and Commonwealth Games as we’re virus free buggy folks. That’s what victory looks like all you young fit and productive people that can commonly brush this thing off but keep up the good work for the Boomers OK?

  43. Being a recent victim of the following and a little familiar with it ,I suggest that virologists take a look at RESPIRATORY SYNCYTIAL VIRUS and its antibodies. It is known to be dangerous to babies and oldies but is similiar to the common cold in everyone else, It is very contagious, probably pandemic, and nearly all children from age three have antibodies and are thus immune for the next five years Those adults who do catch it are probably unaware of it but still become immune. It has occurred to me that its antibodies may be similar enough to explain the widespread and unexpected immunity that we are seeing.

  44. Of all imported cases, 61 have caused local transmission. In total, 157 cases were infected from imported cases. Among the local transmissions caused by imported cases, 89 (54.4%) were family members; 33 (20.6%) were friends or acquaintances; 27 (16.9%) were people at work; 8 (6.3%) were infected from places visited by imported cases.

    Korea imported 1006 cases

    61 Of these cases resulted in Local infections

    these 61 people caused 157 additional cases ( 2.6 R0)

    of the 157

    89 (54.4%) were family members;
    33 (20.6%) were friends or acquaintances;
    27 (16.9%) were people at work;
    8 (6.3%) were infected from places visited by imported cases.

    tracing

  45. Most sailors testing positive for COVID-19 on the USS Theodore Roosevelt showed no symptoms of infection.

    “The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier – which is about 94% complete – was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

    Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says.”

    That’s a 12.5% overall infection rate.

    https://taskandpurpose.com/news/uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-coronavirus-asymptomatic

  46. Meanwhile, with nary a whisper from the media, Horowitz has released his report, and it is damning:

    “Orchestrated from the highest levels of the Department of Justice, the FBI knowingly used disinformation from a foreign adversary — paid for by political operatives running a partisan campaign in an ongoing U.S. election — to unleash America’s most powerful and sprawling espionage apparatus against political enemies of a sitting administration.

    Think about it. This is infinitely worse than Watergate. These are abuses so much more brazen and dangerous than anything from Hoover, the infamous longtime director of … ahem … the FBI.

    We now know that FBI agents — operating at the behest of powerful appointees of the Obama administration — deliberately doctored foreign intelligence to obtain secret warrants to spy on an active political campaign for president. In the United States of America.

    This is no longer opinion or speculation. This is fact, backed up by exhaustive investigation and extensive evidence. The fact that these massive abuses are getting short-shrift in the media today only reveals the extent to which the media has been a co-conspirator in this travesty of justice.

    They have become outright defenders of a police state, where spying on innocent Americans seeking political office is now perfectly acceptable to them.

    Meanwhile, in Congress, the most powerful Democrats in the land knew what was going on and encouraged it. All for sick partisan gain.

    To cover their tracks, they lied and accused their political opponents of doing exactly what they themselves did: Using foreign disinformation straight out of Moscow to sow discord and win an election here in the United States.

    Again, this is not some hot-headed opinion from a crazy conspiracy theorist. Or, at least, it’s not just that. It also happens to be the stone-cold truth.”
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/20/charles-hurt-horowitz-report-proves-things-are-even-worse-than-we-thought/

  47. Hi cedarhill, – You tout knowledge citing those with whom you concur. There is nothing in my comment about cholesterol, plaque, insulin, ketones, diabetes, obesity nor cancer. WUWT is not a diet blog & polemics about it should expect contextual responses.

    Briefly: If people after (not pre-meal, or before breakfast) eating, repeat after a meal, can get their blood sugar to about 6.7 to 8.3 milli-moles/liter (equivalent to around 120 – 159 mg/dL) for awhile their immune system benefits. However, when it is 10 or greater milli-moles/liter (equivalent to around 180 mg/dL) for an extended period then their immune system does not benefit because that conversely favors pro-inflammatory conditions. If I must spell it out: I have no intention of promoting a hyper-glycemic human existence (for that matter I do not adhere to an edible fat phobia).

    Biochemistry is part of our nature. “Sugar” in the diet is not always insidious & yet group genetics regarding “sugar” do exist.

  48. Interested readers should reference John Ioannidis’ most recent paper “Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters
    [ link is to the full .pdf file — a preprint on Medrxiv].

    “CONCLUSIONS:
    People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in the hotbeds of the pandemic and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic."

    If this is true as stated, it means we have been protecting the wrong segment of society. We should have quarantined all of us old folks, barricaded senior citizen centers for their protection, and left the rest of society to get on with it.

    Each new flu seems to have its own peculiarities, SARS-CoV-2 carries away mostly the older people with preference to those with severe co-morbidities. This was clear from the start, and should have been the focus of public health efforts. There are always a few flu victims that don’t fit the pattern.

    When the dust settles, I predict we will find that millions and millions of people had Covid-19 with no or few recognizable symptoms — this will push the mortality rate down and down. Because wqe focused on the wrong cohort being at risk — “everybody” — we will have failed to protect those in greatest need or protection — and possibly destroyed society’s ability to deal with the economic fallout.

  49. This is anecdotal but, I thought, interesting.

    I met a married couple (out dog walking) who said that the husband had been hospitalised from an unidentified virus with respiratory complications in November 2019. He was fit as a fiddle when I met him, although the conversation was carried on outdoors at some distance!

    This individual’s son was an estate agent showing Leeds University students around properties to let in Leeds. Leeds University has an international partnership with Wuhan University of Technology.

    In the clip below, Dr Peter Forster, a geneticist from Cambridge University explains how the earliest the virus could have crossed over to humans in China was 13 Sept 2019

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQQf2yoymu0

    Chinese nationals from Wuhan were hospitalised in Britain 24 Jan 2020 having been in the country for two weeks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/24/coronavirus-uk-universities-issue-quarantine-warning-china-chinese-students-in-slugs

    But the autumn session of Leeds University began Wed 25 Sept 2019.

    Knowing what we now know about the infectiousness of the disease, and the mildness of its symptoms, asymptomatic transmission in the able bodied, a great deal of transmission could have occurred in this country, between young university students, before red flags were raised concerning the virus in January 2020. Personally, I believe that large numbers of able bodied people in Britain have already been exposed to this virus and suffered no ill effects.

    The Cambridge University paper commentary and link is here:

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins

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