The Week That Was: 2020-01-18 (January 18, 2020)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
The Greenhouse Effect – Different Results: It appears that no one involved in climate change issues disagrees with the concept that the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere. A major issue is how to best calculate it. The key component is estimating: How much humans are changing the greenhouse effect by adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere?
As readers realize, TWTW considers the finest comprehensive temperature dataset is that from the Earth System Science Center of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). The world-wide temperature average, after all, requires data from the entire earth, not just samples scattered around from place to place on land, and even more sparsely in the oceans. Moreover, after issues with orbits were discovered, UAH now has one satellite that is rigorously kept at constant altitude to serve as a standard for the others.
These data are not perfect. The data are influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, El Niño warming and La Niña cooling), volcanoes (cooling), and irregularities in satellite orbits, now corrected. They are published monthly for all to criticize and are independently verified by datasets obtained by observations from weather balloons, and calculations from reanalyzes of daily weather reports.
By contrast, the surface data used by global climate modelers are sparse (spotty), have vast gaps in coverage, are inconsistent, and have been manipulated after their original publication without proper explanation. These adjustments are made under the claim of homogenization.
The measured temperature trend of the atmosphere, as measured by satellite using all data from the launch of the program in December 1978 until the present, is a rise of 1.3 ºC per century. What is now known is how much of that warming is due to natural causes, and how much is due to increasing atmospheric CO2. The Transient Climate response (TCR) is the predicted (i.e., modeled) temperature rise that would occur by the time the amount of CO2 has doubled, but before the longer time required for the oceans to heat up.
In 2017, John Christy and Richard McNider published a paper demonstrating the enormous difference in calculated temperatures between
a) temperature trends observed in the atmosphere after the influences ENSO and volcanoes are removed, and
b) temperature trends of the atmosphere calculated by the climate models used by the IPCC.
On a per-decade basis, the calculated warming using atmospheric observations from January 1979 to June 2017 was +0.096 ⁰K (C) per decade, adjusted for ENSO and volcanoes, and +0.155 ⁰K (C) not adjusted for ENSO and volcanoes. Extrapolated, the adjusted result is slightly less than 1 K (C) per century, with CO2 emissions continuing to grow. Since the greenhouse effect of CO2 declines per unit as the total amount increases (diminishing returns), the expected increase in temperature from growing CO2 emissions by the end of this century is less than 1 ⁰K (C).
Based on atmospheric observations, there is little to be feared from increasing CO2 emissions. The calculated trends using climate models result in predictions of more than twice that of calculations using actual atmospheric temperature trends. In the critical tropical areas, the differences are even greater. Thus, fears of a climate crisis are not supported at all by the finest actual atmospheric observations available.
How can an atmosphere, which is warming slightly, cause a significantly greater warming of the surface, which the UN and its followers call dangerous? This is a question which the global climate modelers are trying to explain, and it will be a theme in this and several upcoming TWTWs. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Model Issues.
[Note: The adjustments to the TCR, to achieve a so-called Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), often result in a far greater claimed temperature response to carbon dioxide. No one has successfully identified an equilibrium climate in the earth’s existence. Thus, the concept has little meaning. The IPCC tried established an equilibrium climate for the prior one thousand years by using the infamous hockey-stick in the Summary for Policymakers of Third Assessment Report (AR-3, 2001). But that effort failed. The climate has warmed and cooled for hundreds of millions of years and as warmed and cooled for the past 1000 years. Now, the IPCC and its supporters refer to a vague “pre-industrial climate” (starting about 1850). But a pre-industrial climate can include ice ages (such as the Cryogenian Period) or past warm periods, warmer than today, (such as the Cretaceous Period), as well as many cold and warm periods that have occurred since the end of the Pleistocene Epoch.
Model Mysteries – EEI: Writing in Judith Curry’s website, Climate Etc., Frank Bosse explains the current attempts to increase the calculated CO2-induced warming to an extent that may be alarming. He brings up the concept of using calculations of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) based on satellite observations using NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES).
“For more than 30 years, the Science Directorate at NASA’s Langley Research Center has shaped how scientists measure Earth’s incoming and outgoing energy. The CERES Science, Data Management, Data Processing and Stewardship Teams are devoted to providing valuable Earth Radiation Budget data to the science community. The CERES experiment is one of the highest priority scientific satellite instruments developed for NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS). The first CERES instrument was launched in December of 1997 aboard NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), CERES instruments are collecting observations on three separate satellite missions, including the EOS Terra and Aqua observatories, the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) observatory, and soon, the Joint Polar Satellite System, a partnership between NASA and NOAA. CERES FM6 launched on November 18, 2017 aboard NOAA-20, becoming the last in a generation of successful CERES instruments that help us to better observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records.”
There appear to be several major issues using this approach. One issue is that the concept requires subtracting one huge number from another huge number, and uncertainties in the numbers may easily be far greater than the difference between the numbers. A second issue is that the entire dataset, from 2000 to 2018, indicates that the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) may be declining. Could the earth be cooling as CO2 emissions are increasing? Bosse discusses a paper by Dewitte, Clerbaus, and Cornelis, the abstract of which states:
Decadal changes of the Reflected Solar Radiation (RSR) as measured by CERES from 2000 to 2018 are analysed. For both polar regions, changes of the clear-sky RSR correlate well with changes of the Sea Ice Extent. In the Arctic, sea ice is clearly melting, and as a result the earth is becoming darker under clear-sky conditions. However, the correlation between the global all-sky RSR and the polar clear-sky RSR changes is low. Moreover, the RSR and the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) changes are negatively correlated, so they partly cancel each other. The increase of the OLR is higher than the decrease of the RSR. Also, the incoming solar radiation is decreasing. As a result, over the 2000–2018 period the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) appears to have a downward trend of −0.16 ± 0.11 W/m2dec. The EEI trend agrees with a trend of the Ocean Heat Content Time Derivative of −0.26 ± 0.06 (1 σ) W/m2dec. [Boldface added.]
This results in serious problems to efforts to claim that the Earth is heating dangerously. But the period is short, less than 20 years. Others have attempted to relate EEI with longer-term Ocean Heat Content (OHC) data, a dubious effort unless there is significant tightly overlapping data.
Furthermore, as stated above for EEI estimates, estimates of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) require subtracting one huge number from another huge number and thus the errors in the estimates of the numbers may be far greater than the difference between the numbers. In the case of OHC, the estimates are in units of Zettajoules (ZJ) – one sextillion, or ten raised to the 21st power, or the estimated total energy of estimated petroleum reserves as of 2010, or one power of 10 less than the solar energy hitting the earth’s surface each day.
Writing in GWPF, David Whitehouse critiques the entire process and units of measurements. He states about the latest paper published in 2020:
“The bottom line of this paper is that according to the authors using this relatively new technique they have of replacing no [existing] temperature [record] with synthetic data the world’s oceans (parts of them) have increased in temperature by less than 0.1 degrees C in 60 years.” [Boldface and brackets added.]
Similar to the “pause” of no temperature increase after the 1998 El Niño, a “pause” in Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is giving climate modelers difficulty. According to Bosse, efforts by climate modelers to summarize such research is described in a paper by Femke, Nijsse, Cox, and Williamson that is available in preprint. They claim that the newest set of earth system models (ESMs), CMIP6, constrain the temporary, transient climate response (TCR) to a doubling of CO2. Yet, the modelers calculate greater equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS).
Thus, this shift in emphasis from ECS to TCR, provides a possible explanation for the “pause” in EEI. What the modelers really do is forecast / project / predict a greater, long-term response, or equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), which is unwarranted by the data, thus raising the alarm.
The modelers are developing a clever way to avoid responsibility for their irresponsible forecasts. The long term may be 1000 years. The modelers can always claim that climate equilibrium has not been reached. Thus, it is an imaginary concept.
Upcoming TWTWs will examine the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for a doubling of CO2 produced by four major US modeling groups: the Department of Energy (E3SM); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR-CESM2); NASA (NASA-GISS); and NOAA (NOAA-GFDL). Although the trend is clear, the differences among them may be surprising. For further discussion and problems with models and measurement of ocean heat content, see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
Australia Bushfires: Seasonal rains have come to Australia, prompting new fears that the needed rain will raise CO2 emissions and the burnt bush will pollute water sources. Apparently, some people need to spread fear no matter the season.
On her blog, Australian Jennifer Marohasy posts a summary of what has been occurring to temperature records in Australia. She writes:
“Blaming the recent fires on climate change is to rewrite our temperature history, something the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been doing for some time. This has involved the:
1. [baseless] remodelling of measured values
2. addition of hotter locations to only the most recent years in the compilation of a national average trend
3. transition to electronic probes that are designed to record hotter for the same weather, and
4. deleting of the hottest day in the official record, which was January 3, 1909.”
Also, firefighters and foresters provide their views of what has occurred in government policies. The issues include the problem of fuels, measuring the intensity of fires, and ability to extinguish fires. Hot, dry, windy weather, and fuels are the mix needed for high intensity fires, which burn the humus (organic matter in the soil).
They recommend controlling the fuel in the big areas of Australia as the indigenous people did. Unfortunately, a maze of recent regulations makes bush control too difficult. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Science, Policy, and Evidence, Changing Weather – Australia and Brushfires and Floods, and Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Philosophical Issues: Writing in the Australian publication Quadrant, Aynsley Kellow, Professor Emeritus of Government at the University of Tasmania, discusses the lure of the apocalypse. He states that he is a recovering apocaholic. He starts his lengthy essay by quoting an 1816 letter from Thomas Jefferson to John Adams:
There are indeed (who might say Nay) gloomy & hypochondriac minds, inhabitants of diseased bodies, disgusted with the present, & despairing of the future; always counting that the worst will happen, because it may happen. To these I say How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened!
Kellow discusses the popularity of thinking that disaster is about to happen and the IPCC’s computer-generated warming. He brings up the 1990 challenge to the IPCC by Robert Jastrow, William Nierenberg and Frederick Seitz. [The SEPP Annual Seitz Award is in honor of Frederick Seitz.] Though Kellow does not mention it, these three and SEPP Chairman emeritus Fred Singer were the subject of many insulting, unsubstantiated claims by Oreskes and Conway in “Merchants of Doubt.” A glowing review of the book was published in Science Mag., which rejected a prompt rebuttal by the only surviving member of the four, Fred Singer.
Kellow gives a brief account of what has happened since, and concludes:
“We could do no better in the face of these apocaholics than to note the response of Thomas Babington Macaulay to Thomas Malthus in 1830:
We cannot absolutely prove that those are in error who tell us that society has reached a turning point, that we have seen our best days. But so said all before us, and with just as much apparent reason … On what principle is it that, when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?
Apocalypticism, sadly, is more addictive than optimism.”
In addition, Duncan McNeil has an essay on the difficulty of changing minds of people on Paul Homewood’s blog. He states:
“Homogenous groups don’t just underperform, they do so in predictable ways. When you are surrounded by similar people, you are not just likely to share each other’s blind spots, but to reinforce them. This is sometimes called ‘mirroring’. [Another way to refer to such actions is “Group Think.”]
“…And this hints at the danger of homogeneous groups: they are more likely to form judgements that combine excessive confidence with grave error.”
See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
The Surge: Power Mag, which promotes wind and solar, used the January US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), to claim renewables will surge past coal and nuclear in powering US electrical generation by 2021. Power Mag. left out a few details about fossil fuels.
“U.S. net imports of crude oil and petroleum product fell from an average of 2.3 million b/d in 2018 to an average of 0.5 million b/d in 2019, and EIA estimates the United States has exported more total crude oil and petroleum products than it has imported since September. EIA forecasts that the United States will be a net exporter of total crude oil and petroleum products by 0.8 million b/d in 2020 and by 1.4 million b/d in 2021.”
“U.S. dry natural gas production set a new record in 2019, averaging 92.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will rise to 94.7 Bcf/d in 2020 and then decline to 94.1 Bcf/d in 2021. Production in the Appalachian region drives the forecast as it shifts from growth in 2020 to declining production in 2021.”
The real issue is: When will consumers realize they are paying far more for electrical generation capacity, either directly or in subsidies, than they need to pay because wind and solar cannot be depended upon to generate electricity when needed the most? See links under Energy Issues – US.
Number of the Week: +/- 0.003⁰C Paul Homewood calculates that the: “Claimed temperature uncertainty in 2010 is +/-0.003⁰C [for Ocean Heat Content] while sea surface temperature varies about 6⁰C.” This is another example of what Duncan McNeil called “the danger of homogeneous groups: they are more likely to form judgements that combine excessive confidence with grave error.”
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
The New Politics Of Climate Change: No Space For Deniers
By Roger Scruton, Forbes, Apr 8, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Busted: Reef fish aren’t bothered by “acidification” and James Cook Uni isn’t bothered by potential fraud.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 11, 2020
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Satellite bulk tropospheric temperatures as a metric for climate sensitivity
By John Christy and Richard McNider, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, November 2017
Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence
By Frank Bosse, Climate Etc. Jan 10, 2020
Link to paper on what may be used in the next generation models: An emergent constraint on Transient Climate Response from simulated historical warming in CMIP6 models
By Femke J.M.M. Nijsse, et al., Earth System Dynamics, Jan 6, 2020
New 80-Year Deep-Ocean Temperature Dataset Compared to a 1D Climate Model
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 15, 2020
Ocean Warming: Not As Simple As Headlines Say
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Jan 16, 2020
The Ocean Warms By A Whole Little
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 14, 2020
Ocean Warming Scares
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 15, 2020
See link immediately above.
Explaining the Discrepancies Between Hausfather et al. (2019) and Lewis&Curry (2018)
By Ross McKitrick, Climate Etc. Jan 17, 2020
After the Tragic Wildfires: History is Rewritten or Forgotten
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 13, 2020
IPCC Expert’s 8 Discredited Papers
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Jan 15, 2020
Defending the Orthodoxy
Decadal Changes of the Reflected Solar Radiation and the Earth Energy Imbalance
By Dewitte, Clerbaus, and Cornelis, Remote Sensing, March 19, 2019
Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019
By Lijing Cheng, et al, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Jan 13, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015
By Lijing Cheng, et al, Science Advances, March 10, 2017
World Economic Forum: Top global risks all climate-related
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Jan 15, 2020
Link to: The Global Risks Report 2020
By Staff, World Economic Forum, In partnership with Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group. 2020
[SEPP Comment: According to the World Economic Forum, the top global risks are: failure to act on environment change such as climate action failure; biodiversity loss; human-made environmental disaster; extreme weather; and natural disasters. These are a greater threat to humanity than weapons of mass destruction.? In a world where extreme poverty is falling dramatically?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Why There is Good News Now
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 14, 2020
Warmest Decade – Climate Crisis Still a No Show
By Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Jan 17, 2020
The Case Against Climate Science
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 17, 2020
The Inconvenient Facts On Australian Bushfires
By Roger Pielke, Forbes, Jan 14, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
Change in US Administrations
NEPA Reforms a Big Step toward Correcting Worst Abuses of Environmental Permitting Process
Press Release, By Myron Ebell and Ben Lieberman, CEI, Jan 9, 2020
Improving federal environmental impact assessments
By Mario Loyola, The Hill, Jan 17, 2020 [H/t Cooler Heads]
Environmentalists furious after Trump vows faster bureaucracy
By Chris Woodward, One News, Jan 15, 2020
Seeking a Common Ground
The Lure of the Apocalypse
By Aynsley Kellow, Quadrant, Jan 16, 2020
How To Change A Mind
Guest Post by Duncan McNeil, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2020
Roger Scruton: A Defender of Life on a Human Scale
By Jeffrey Folks, American Thinker, Jan 15, 2020
Three Rules For Accepting Climate “Event Attribution” Studies
By Roger Pielke, Forbes, Jan 6, 2020
Link to follow paper: Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence
By K.A. Reed, et al., Science Advances, Jan 1, 2020
Who Checks The Factcheckers?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 11, 2020
By Roger Underwood, Quadrant, Jan 17, 2020
“Roger Underwood is a former district and regional forester in Western Australia with over 60 years-experience in bushfire science, planning and operations.”
We don’t need a bushfire royal commission. We need clearly defined responsibilities to tackle them
By Robert Carling, Spectator, Australia, Jan 16, 2020
Bushfires and climate change
By Don Aitkin, Reflections on Australian Society, Jan 15, 2020 [H/t Bill Balgord]
Past president of Canberra University
Scientist David Packham on what’s really causing the bushfires
By Staff, Volunteer Fire Fighters Association, AU, [Oct 30, 2019?] [H/t Tony Heller]
“The Bush Needs to Burn”: Climate Obsessed Greens Ignoring Indigenous Wisdom
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 13, 2020
I Cheered When the Bushfire Came
By Geoff Walker, Quadrant, Jan 12, 2020
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
A One-Year Study of CO2 Enrichment and Nutrient Supply on a Seagrass Community
Campbell, J.E. and Fourqurean, J.W. 2018. Does nutrient availability regulate seagrass response to elevated CO2? Ecosystems 21: 1269-1282. Jan 16, 2020
“In commenting on their work, Campbell and Fourquerean write that ‘elevated CO2 modestly increased seagrass standing crop, providing evidence that carbon enrichment will likely prove beneficial to submerged plants beyond enhancements in photosynthetic output.’ Furthermore, they note that because these positive responses ‘were not influenced by NP [nitrogen and phosphorus] addition,’ it suggests that these CO2-induced benefits will occur ‘even in relatively nutrient-poor systems.’”
Elevated CO2 Increases the Essential Oil of a Medicinal Herb
Kaundal, M., Bhatt, V. and Kumar, R. 2018. Elevated CO2 and temperature effect on essential oil content and composition of Valeriana jatamansi Jones. with organic manure application in a western Himalayan region. Journal of Essential Oil Bearing Plants 21: 1041-1050. Jan 15, 2020
Models v. Observations
Were IPCC’s 1990 medium-term warming predictions accurate? No.
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Jan 17, 2020
1D Model of Global SST Shows 40% of Warming Since 1979 Due to Early Volcanic Cooling
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 14, 2020
Measurement Issues — Surface
Canada’s Missing Heat: Stations Across The Country Show More Cooling Than Warming
By Kirye and P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 12, 2020
Ireland Temperatures Cooling Since 1988. And Deep Blue Vermont Says ‘No’ To Wind Power
By Kirye and P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 17, 2020
2019 was the second hottest year on record, per NASA and NOAA
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 15, 2020
“The annual average temperature for the contiguous 48 United States was the 34th warmest on record, making it ‘warmer than average,’ according to NOAA.”
See link immediately below.
While NOAA/NASA claims 2019 as the “second warmest year ever”, other data shows 2019 cooler than 2005 for USA.
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jan 15, 2020
The Megacities Are Cooking
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 18, 2020
The GWPF 2020 Temperature Prediction Competition
By Staff, GWPF, Jan 16, 2020
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Weak El Nino Conditions Help Explain Recent Global Warmth
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 13, 2020
Hurricanes and The AMO
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Suggesting an improved way to look at the data Pielke and Maue presented in their graphs.]
New Video: The February Hurricane Of 1493
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Jan 15, 2020
2019 Indian Monsoon — Blessing or Curse?
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 17, 2020
Why Were the Snow Forecasts So Challenging During the Past Week?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 18, 2020
“This has been a hard week for meteorologists, with multiple threats of cold and snow. Some aspects of the forecasts worked out, some did not. For example, Seattle Public Schools cancelled classes, but the predicted snow did not show up. I have gotten a number of emails asking: why were the snow forecasts so good last February, but not so good this time around?”
Panic now: Drought breaking rains could raise emissions! (One drought was twice as good as all those renewables!)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 18, 2020
SMH: Drought Breaking Aussie Rain is a Disaster for Climate Change
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 17, 2020
Climate ‘religion’ is fueling Australia’s wildfires
By Rupert Darwall, The Hill, Jan 17, 2020
Forgotten Fact: 1974/75 Australian Bush Fires Were More Than 9 Times Greater Than Those Of 2019/20!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 11, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Illustrating the area burned with a map of Europe is effective.]
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Climate Change Destroyed Assyrian Empire… without fossil fuels!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 16, 2020
Link to paper: Role of climate in the rise and fall of the Neo-Assyrian Empire
By Ashish Sinha, et al., Science Advances, Nov 13, 2019
[SEPP Comment: One of the issues not discussed is the tremendous resilience humanity has developed to counter local famine by being able to move agriculture products using fossil fuels.]
Climate ‘science’: In vino veritas
By Alistair Crooks, Quadrant, Jan 18, 2020
[SEPP Comment: In general, European vineyards now use North American rootstock, which are more resistant to pests and diseases imported from North America, which almost wiped out viticulture in Europe by the 1880s. Hybrid vines and Canadian rootstock tend to be hardier against freezing than European varieties used for wine a thousand years ago. It was freezing that killed vineyards in northern Europe during the Little Ice Age.]
19 Papers Published In 2019 Affirm Sea Levels Were METERS Higher Than Today 4-8 Thousand Years Ago
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 16, 2020
[SEPP Comment: One of the issues with such comparisons is plate tectonics.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
2019 Alaska aerial survey found the most polar bears since 2012 – dozens of fat healthy bears
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 12, 2020
Comprehensive Data, Recent Studies In Top Journals: Antarctica Stable, Temps Falling, Ice Mass Growing!
News from Antarctica: how’s the ice?
By Kalte Sonne, (German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Jan 14, 2020
Major Eruption of Taal Volcano in Philippines in Progress
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 12, 2020
“The sudden eruption of Taal volcano south of Manila, Philippines began about 0630 UTC today, and the Himawari-8 satellite infrared imagery suggests that the plume might have penetrated the stratosphere, which is necessary for the volcano to have any measurable effect on global temperatures.”
Ocean acidification a big problem – but not for coral reef fish behavior
By Staff Writers, Oslo, Norway (SPX), Jan 13, 2020
Link to paper: Ocean acidification does not impair the behaviour of coral reef fishes
By Timothy D. Clark, et al., Nature, Jan 8, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Question whether it is a problem at all!]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
James Taylor: Record Farm Yields Contradict Climate Doomsayers’ Claims
By James Taylor, Breitbart, Jan 13, 2020
Australians Are Ready to Break Out of the Cycle of Climate Change Denial
Catastrophic fires make it hard for media to stick to old narratives.
By Ketan Joshi, Foreign Policy, Jan 14, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“Ketan Joshi is a climate communications expert working on a book about Australia’s climate change story.”
[SEPP Comment: Does not mention Black Thursday, 1851, or Black Friday, 1939. A real expert on climate communications – ignore that which does not fit the storyline.]
Media reaction: Australia’s bushfires and climate change
By Multiple Authors, Carbon Brief, Jan 7, 2020
“The scientific consensus could not be clearer: anthropogenic warming has worsened Australia’s fire risk by extending fire seasons, increasing average temperature and drying the landscape. And yet addressing this reality by reducing emissions will offer little practical help to Australians who must gird themselves against the threat of more fires, at least not for the foreseeable future.” – The Australian
Climate change: Australia fires will be ‘normal’ in warmer world–Matt McGrath
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 15, 2020
Tasmania Is No Stranger To Devastating Fires–Despite What The Guardian Says
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2020
“This shows that it is not always a simple case of long spells of drought causing fires. In this instance, as we often see, wet weather in winter and spring can encourage vegetation growth, which just needs a few weeks of hot, dry weather to turn into very combustible fuel load.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Fishy Findings: 100% Replication Failure
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Jan 13, 2020
“Zero out of eight. How many other James Cook [University] research papers should we be taking seriously?”
The Hotter-Drier “Climate change” myth — the rain in Australia has always been erratic, no CO2 trend
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 13, 2020
Asia’s Great Rivers: Climate crisis, pollution put billions at risk
By Liz Thomas, Hong Kong (AFP), Jan 10, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Himalayas melting again, with an average elevation more than 20,000 feet (6,100 meters) https://www.britannica.com/place/Great-Himalayas.]
Say Bye Bye Trees: Climate Scientists Finally Claim We Passed a “Tipping Point”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 11, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Senior Aussie Politician: “Climate deniers are like anti-vaxxers”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 18, 2020
Billion-dollar bully ABC resorts to name calling for the nightly news
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 17, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
BBC Plan New Climate Change Propaganda Blitz
David Attenborough is making the same mistake as Greta Thunberg
By Ross Clark, The Spectator, Jan 17, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
On Facebook Greta looks 16, but secretly identifies as two grown men
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 13, 2020
Expanding the Orthodoxy
UN proposal calls to protect 30 percent of Earth by 2030 as species face extinction
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 13, 2020
Link to plan: Zero Draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework
Microsoft pledges to be ‘carbon negative’ by 2030
By Rob Lever, Washington (AFP), Jan 16, 2020
[SEPP Comment: No doubt, hoping others pick up the cost of reliable electricity.]
The American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act: Myth vs. Fact
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Jan 16, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Exposing efforts to apply the Montreal Protocol to global warming, which would harm other US production.]
Questioning European Green
EU lays out 1 trillion-euro plan to support Green Deal
By Samuel Petrequin, AP, Jan 14, 2020
“Johan Van Overtveldt, the head of the EU parliament’s Budget Committee, was skeptical about how the scheme set-up.
“’It carries a one-trillion euros price tag,’ he said. ‘Where the money should be coming from remains extremely unclear. We are against the recycling of promises and money. We don’t back creative bookkeeping and financial adventures.’”
UK firms buy ‘green energy’ proof from Europe but burn fossil fuel
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2020
“Most companies offering such deals merely shuffle bits of paper around, instead of actually buying renewable energy. Now we learn that some of these bits of paper come from countries like Lithuania.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
No Meat for You!
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Jan 15, 2020
“There is no place for authoritarian diet control. We all experiment with our best personal diets.”
Rise of e-mobility in Germany puts ‘more than 400,000 jobs at risk’
By Staff, The Local, DE, Jan 13, 2020
Rockefeller Fund Behind the Pay Up Climate Polluters Campaign
By Spencer Walrath, Energy in Depth, Jan 15, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Those who attempt to tar others with accepting oil money, true or not, fail to discuss these efforts by the Rockefeller Family Fund.]
The burden of proof rests on Mark Carney, and he hasn’t made his case against fossil fuels
Opinion: If any investments are likely to be stranded, it is those such as wind and solar, not fossil fuels
By John Constable, Financial Post, CAN, Jan 10, 2020
9th Circuit Court Of Appeals Deals Brutal Blow To Teens Who Sued Trump Over Climate Change
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Jan 17, 2020 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
Link to opinion of the panel: US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, Jan 17, 2020
It’s Official: New York’s Climate Case Against ExxonMobil is Over
By Spencer Walrath, Energy in Depth, Jan 13, 2020
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA’s Science Blowout
By Steve Milloy, Inside Sources, Jan 14, 2020
“The EPA’s Clean Air Act Science Advisory Board wrote to Administrator Andrew Wheeler on December 16 that the agency’s most recent assessment of the health effects of particulate matter like soot and dust (PM) in outdoor air is not comprehensive, systematic or adequate for determining that PM caused health effects.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
Dear BP: 85% Fossil Fuels (why hide it?)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Jan 15, 2020
Link to: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2019
By Staff, BP, June 2019
Europe’s energy issues leave it seriously reliant on Russia, other autocracies
By Victor Davis Hanson, New York Post, Jan 15, 2020
“Europe itself is naturally rich in fossil fuels. It likely has more reserves of shale gas than the United States, currently the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. Yet in most European countries, horizontal drilling and fracking are either illegal or mired in protests and court challenges.”
Can Singapore really transit to a post-oil economy?
By Tilak Doshi and Euston Quah, The Straits Times, Via WUWT, Jan 11, 2020
Energy Issues – Australia
After Climate Hysteria: Siemens Snubs Greta Thunberg And Will Honour Australian Coal Mine Deal
By Staff, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Jan 13, 2020
It’s Time to Protect the Grid
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 17, 2020
Dear Daniel Yergin: We Need Alex Epstein at CERAWeek (‘this is John Galt speaking …’)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Jan 14, 2020
EIA: Renewables Will Surge Past Coal, Nuclear to 22% of U.S. Power Mix in 2021
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jan 16, 2020
Link to EIA forecast: Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
By Staff, EIA, January 2020
Texas Power Generation: Did Coal Get Blown Away By Wind?
By Ramanan Krishnamoorti and Ed Hirs, University of Houston, Via Forbes, Jan 13, 2020
“The data for Texas’ power production over the last three years indicates that coal has instead been replaced largely through the growth of natural gas and only to a small extent due to wind.”
Report: Coal Plants Shut Down At Second Fastest Rate On Record During Trump’s Third Year In Office
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Jan 13, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Downside of reducing regulations on hydraulic fracturing for natural gas.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
New Fuel Economy Rule Sent to OMB
Press Release, By Sam Kazman, CEI, Jan 16, 2020
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
In milestone, Israel starts exporting natural gas to Egypt
Jerusalem’s and Cairo’s energy ministries issue rare joint statement announcing implementation of estimated $19.5 billion deal to pump gas from 2 massive offshore gas fields
By Toi Staff, The Times of Israel, Jan 18, 2020 [H/t Cooler Heads]
New assessment of gas locked in ice in European waters
Press Release, University of Southampton, Jan 15, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Press Release: Hydrate occurrence in Europe: A review of available evidence
By Timothy A. Minshull, et al. Marine and Petroleum Geology, Jan 2020
“Hydrate is particularly widespread offshore Norway and Svalbard and in the Black Sea.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
From Peanuts to Power: The Jimmy Carter Solar Farm
By David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 14, 2020
[SEPP Comment: To provide light at mid-day when it is needed the most?]
Wind Farms Built To Tackle Climate Change Could Be Final Nail In Coffin For Seabirds, RSPB Warns
By Staff, Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Jan 16, 2020
Link to papers: The Impact of Wind Energy on Wildlife and the Environment
Edited by Benny Peiser, GWPF, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Shipping giants debut LNG and hydrogen vessels
By Sarah George, Edie, Jan 3, 2020
“Multinational fuel giant Tristar has added a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker to its international shipping fleet for the first time, in the same week that Kawasaki Heavy Industries debuted the world’s first ship capable of transporting large volumes of liquid hydrogen.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
SUVs Not EVs: The Electric Car Boom Hits A Snag
By Jon LeSage, Oil Price.com, Jan 13, 2020
California energy policies are fueling the housing crisis and homelessness
By Ronald Stein, WUWT, Jan 17, 2020
Health, Energy, and Climate
Merchants of Thirst
Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 15, 2020
Microwaving sewage waste may make it safe to use as fertilizer on crops
By Gang Chen | Professor FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Tallahassee FL (The Conversation) Jan 15, 2020
[SEPP Comment: In some areas, sewage is used on farms, to remain fallow for a year. One important issue is removing heavy metals in areas where they are prevalent.]
Toward a smarter way of recharging the aquifer
By Staff Writers, St. Louis MO (SPX) Jan 10, 2020
Link to paper: Dissolved Organic Matter Affects Arsenic Mobility and Iron(III) (hydr)oxide Formation: Implications for Managed Aquifer Recharge
By Xuanhao Wu, et al., Environmental Science Technology, Oct 23, 2020
Ancient hominid disease defenses contribute to adaptation of modern humans
By Staff Writers, Oxford UK (SPX) Jan 15, 2020
Link to paper: Polygenic patterns of adaptive introgression in modern humans are mainly shaped by response to pathogens
By Alexandre Gouy and Laurent Exoffier, Molecular Biology and Evolution, Jan 14, 2020
Michael Mann Beclowns Himself with Aussie Climate Refugee Prediction
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 16, 2020
Police Put Greenpeace On Extremist List With Neo-Nazis
By Fariha Karim, The Times, Via GWPF, Jan 17, 2020
“The unit said that the document was only intended to be a helpful guide for officers on the beat to identify various groups during their day-to-day activities, adding that it explicitly states that not all of the groups mentioned are terrorist or even criminal organisations.”
Other Scientific News
Satellite constellations harvest energy for near-total global coverage
By Staff Writers, Ithaca NY (SPX), Jan 13, 2020
Link to paper: Low cost satellite constellations for nearly continuous global coverage
By Lake A. Singh, et al., Nature Communications, Jan 10, 2020
Other News that May Be of Interest
Educational ‘equity’ consultant advocates burning ‘most books used in schools’
By Dave Huber, The College fix, Jan 11, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
Recommendation: “Stop using white history, white mathematics, and white science as the foundation.”
China birth rate hits lowest level since 1949
By Staff Writers, Beijing (AFP), Jan 17, 2020
Fertility Rate Hits All-Time Low, But U.S. On Track For 400 Million In 2050s
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, Jan 9, 2020
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
What’s a Climate Scientist to Wear During Awards Season?
By Marie Denoia Aronsohn, State of the Planet, Earth Institute, Columbia University Jan 10, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
“Davi, along with Lamont polar pioneer and AGU president Robin Bell, celebrated paleoclimatologist Maureen Raymo, and Lamont research professor Rosanne D’Arrigo showed off their custom-designed, science-themed outfits at the AGU Honors Banquet on December 11, 2019, in San Francisco.”
[SEPP Comment: Under its new leadership, AGU has become a leader in fashion rather than in science supported by hard evidence!]
Can solar geoengineering mitigate both climate change and income inequality?
Press Release, University of California – San Diego, Jan 13, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality
By Anthony Harding, Nature Communications, Jan 13, 2020
Potential economic benefits of reversing rising temperatures would benefit developing countries greatly, representing a global GDP growth of 200%
Quick Dick McDick explains to Protestors the secret of Vegan Margarine …
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 12, 2020
1. ‘Cancel Culture’ Comes to Science
A scholar with an agenda targets as ‘dangerous’ our conference on filtering out faulty research.
By Peter W. Wood, WSJ, Jan 12, 2020
TWTW Summary: The president of the National Association of Scholars states:
“An unhappy side effect of the digital age is ‘cancel culture.’ Anyone with an attitude of moral superiority and a Twitter account can try to shut down an event where opinions he dislikes are likely to be spoken. For several years the National Association of Scholars has inveighed against this infantile form of protest, which undermines free expression of ideas and legitimate debate. Now the cancel caravan has arrived at our door.
“We are holding a conference co-sponsored by the Independent Institute in Oakland, Calif., in early February. It is meant to be an exchange among scholars on the problem of ‘irreproducibility’ in the sciences—fake science or failed science, or something-is-missing science. It’s a big problem these days, but there’s no agreement on what to do about it. Our goal is [to] bring together experts who have diverse and often conflicting views to see if they can come to some agreement about how to improve the situation. The conference is titled Fixing Science: Practical Solutions for the Irreproducibility Crisis.
“But one scientist, armed with a keyboard and contempt for contrary opinions, has set out to cancel our conference. Leonid Teytelman has busied himself writing to the speakers at the event to warn them away. And he has found fellow censors who agree the conference is ‘problematic.’ Our critic calls us ‘clever and dangerous.’
“How so? Once a Twitterstorm starts, the reasons multiply. Our list of speakers includes no women. (All declined our invitations.) Our initials share three letters with the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, or Nasem, therefore we are ‘deceptive.’ Wikipedia describes us as a ‘conservative’ organization. We are also accused of ‘climate denialism,’ and of having invited some climate-change skeptics to speak.
“The truth is that we are a traditionalist group of scholars who hold to a rigorous standard of open-mindedness on controversial issues in the sciences. We welcome critiques from anyone who agrees to play by the rules of rational argument, openness and scrupulous use of evidence. That’s clever, I suppose, but dangerous only to those who balk at giving the ‘other side’ a voice. Our Twittering critic sees our conference as a sneaky way to legitimate views that he regards as akin to blasphemy—ironic for a man accusing us of politicizing science.”
The article states that thus far the conference will take place, and concludes stating the main issue:
“Our conference in Oakland—the Twitterstorm notwithstanding—deals with the difficulty the sciences have in recognizing and filtering out faulty research. The effort to cancel it demonstrates the timeliness of the topic. We are under attack by those who would like to maintain groupthink by demonizing dissent and go still further by compromising science in favor of identity politics.”