Guest Commentary by David Archibald
The area planted for corn and soybeans this season is well below historic averages. This was mostly due to waterlogged fields and flooding which precluded planting. The planting windows for corn and soybeans are now closed. The USDA crop progress reports provide weekly updates by state. For example this is the state of the corn crop in Indiana to Monday June 17:
Figure 1: Indiana corn crop progress to Monday June 17.
The emerged crop is one month behind where it was in 2018. Which means that maturity will be one month later at best, assuming that the rest of the summer isnāt abnormally cold.
Figure 2 shows that the same situation in soybeans in Indiana:
Figure 2: Indiana soybean crop progress to Monday June 17.
The current expectation is that the US corn crop will be down 30% on 2018 which will push the price to about $9.00 per bushel at harvest. What could make the situation a lot worse is an early frost. The Corn Belt did warm slightly over the last 100 years due to the high solar activity of the second half of the 20th century. This is shown by the cumulative growing degree days (GDD) of the first decade of the 20th century (blue lines) compared to the first decade of the 21st century (red lines) in Figure 3 for Whitestown, Indiana:
Figure 3: Cumulative GDD for Whitestown, Indiana
Normally, for the 21st century, the corn crop is in the ground by April 27 and the crop has reached maturity with 2,500 GDD well before the normal first frost date for Whitestown of October 10. The earliest recorded date for Whitestown is September 3. That was in 1908. If that is repeated in 2019 the crop will be only 80% through its growth cycle. Yield and quality will be well down and the total crop may be 50% or less of the 2018 level.
The US will be able to feed itself but at much higher prices. Currently some 40% of the corn crop goes to ethanol production and this could be redirected to animal feed without too much trouble. But protein production would still be well down. Each 56 lb bushel of corn used in ethanol production results in 18 lbs of dried distillers grains (DDG) containing the protein. This is used as a feed supplement to pigs, chickens and cattle. Both pigs and chickens have a 25% conversion efficiency of vegetable protein to animal protein. The global warmers want us to adopt vegetarianism in order to save the planet. The public is going to get a taste of that future coming up soon. However animal fat is essential for infant neurological development and brain function so we canāt go completely vegetarian.
What is happening in the Corn Belt is a mini version of the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. The population of Europe exploded in benign conditions of the Medieval Warm Period from 1000 AD to 1300 AD, reaching population levels that werenāt matched again until the 19th century. In fact parts of rural France have less population today than at the beginning of the 14th century.
The breakover from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age in Europe had sustained periods of bad weather characterised by severe winters and rainy and cold summers. The Great Famine of 1315 ā 1317 started with bad weather in the spring of 1315. Crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer of 1317. The population decline over the two years is thought to be about 10%, associated with āextreme levels of crime, disease, mass death, cannibalism and infanticide.ā These conditions may be less in the Mormons amongst us who are instructed to keep one yearās worth of food in stock.
The Modern Warm Period ended in 2006. Current solar activity is back to levels of the Little Ice Age. To paraphrase Santayana, those who donāt remember history are condemned to being surprised and unprepared when it repeats itself.
A large and increasing number of nations are feeding their population growth with imported grain. That is going to be become more expensive to continue, with or without an early frost in the Corn Belt. Global warming hysteria has been a consequence of very benign conditions for the OECD countries where it is concentrated. That angst will be supplanted by more basic concerns.
David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare
The recent destruction of much of the Chinese pig population due to African Swine Fever virus will allviate some demand for soy beans. And the flexibility of less corn to ethanol allows more here for hog and chicken feed. Grass is going to be in abundance though for hay for cattle and diary operations. And in the south, high fall corn prices will reduce demand for huntersā ādeer cornā which is a discretionary luxury, and thus an elastic demand.
Weāll do just fine, because North American farmers are adaptable. Where the problems can arise though are in the 3rd world and Russia if early frosts arrive before harvest.
Hog operations here in the US will likely profit handsomely as Chinese appetite for pork will still have to be sated with US exported pork bellies. The best option at this point is to fill the (second?) freezer with good cuts of chicken, beef and hamburger NOW to get through to next spring.
My mother grew up in the dirty thirties on the prairies. The stories I grew up with weren’t about people adapting and succeeding. If Mother Nature decides to smack us, farmers won’t be able to keep up production no matter what they do.
Farmers weren’t that adaptable in the 1930’s.
Early mechanization led to poor soil practices with knowledge of the consequences.
1930’s:
Lack of information.
Lack of irrigation resources.
Lack of knowledge of soil conservation.
Much better cultivars today.
Pest control available (herbicides and pesticides) today.
Access to broad range of markets. Government more willing to offer loans and grants to see them through a bad year.
That sad-bad part are the misguided Looney Lefties in their desire to take us back to 1850’s level of development, including agriculture. Yet they all demand their fresh green salads, “natural” breads, craft brewed beers from barley, wheat, and other grains and hops. Somehow the AOC-Bernie cult of scientifically illiterate idiots and morons think the sacrifices will all be someone else’s, not theirs.
Where did you get this nonsense? “… animal fat is essential for infant neurological development and brain function”. I call BS. Check your source.
What this should really indicate is that there will be far less corn available to use as a fuel source.
Food for Food
Though realistically we will be told that the corn available for food has been reduced by 60% but miraculously there is sufficient for making all required ethanol
Probably a dumb question, but can/do they use the same corn varietals for ethanol, livestock feed, and eating? I do “know” (probably) that popcorns are a different variety from the rest.
Livestock and ethanol production use the same field corn, but corn for human consumption is a different variety. So field corn planted and intended for the ethanol plant could be redirected to feed livestock.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/02/23/study-a-solar-signature-in-many-climate-indices/#comment-2639806
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=664274552
Happy Birthday Lord Monckton. You might enjoy this note that I posted today.
Best personal regards, Allan in freezing cold Calgary
_________________________________________________________________
Brian Walters wrote on February 1 at 7:43pm Ā· āHey Allan MacRae…looks like you and the folks at NASA can agree on this!!ā
NASA SEES CLIMATE COOLING TREND THANKS TO LOW SUN ACTIVITY
https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/30214-nasa-sees-climate-cooling-trend-thanks-to-low-sun-activity/
Thank you Brian for remembering.
We published with confidence in 2002 in a written debate with the Pembina Institute, sponsored by APEGA:
āClimate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming ā the alleged warming crisis does not exist.ā
and
āThe ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply ā the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.ā
Past decades of actual global observations adequately prove that these two statements are correct to date. Since then, many trillions of dollars and millions of lives have been wasted due to false global warming alarmism and costly intermittent green energy schemes. Any global warming observed to date has been mild and net-beneficial to humanity and the environment ā the only measurable effect of the increase in atmospheric CO2 is greatly-increased plant and crop yields.
I wrote in an article published 1Sept2002 in the Calgary Herald:
āIf [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.ā
My (our) now-imminent global cooling prediction predates Theodor Landscheidt’s 2003 paper. Iād be happy to be wrong about that cooling prediction, but itās looking pretty good, based on the crash in solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 ā the lowest since the Dalton Minimum (circa 1800).
NEW LITTLE ICE AGE INSTEAD OF GLOBAL WARMING?
Theodor Landscheidt, First Published May 1, 2003
https://doi.org/10.1260/095830503765184646
I will stand with this prediction ā for moderate, natural cooling, similar to that which occurred from ~1940 to the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1977, despite increasing atmospheric CO2. As stated previously, I hope to be wrong, because humanity and the environment suffer during cold periods.
The first two predictions of 2002 are correct to date. If I get my third 2002 prediction for imminent global cooling correct as well, it will be a perfect Trifecta.
Then, I will write Sweden and demand the IPCCās Nobel Prize. š
Regards, Allan
Last week, my friend Joe DāAleo and I discussed the late planting in the USA grain belt. Planting occurred about one month late last year as well, but an excellent summer led to a good crop. This year the crop situation is more worrisome.
Here in Alberta, it feels colder, like the Winters and Springs of several decades ago.
Told you so , 17 years ago.
“CO2, Global Warming, Climate and Energy”
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng. June 2019
pdf:
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-june2019-final-.pdf
Excel spreadsheet:
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/co2-global-warming-climate-and-energy-june2019-final.xlsx
10. I wrote in an article published 1Sept2002 in the Calgary Herald:
āIf [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.ā
I will stand with this prediction ā for moderate, natural cooling, similar to that which occurred from ~1940 to the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1977, despite accelerating fossil fuel combustion and atmospheric CO2. Similar cooling occurred from ~1945 to 1977 as fossil fuel consumption accelerated.
I now think global cooling will start closer to 2020. The following plot explains why (Fig.10).
I hope to be wrong, because humanity and the environment suffer during cold periods.
Fig.10 – Apparent Coherence of Total Solar Irradiance, Sea Surface Temperature and Lower Tropospheric Temperature, interrupted by the 1998 El Nino
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/pmod/offset:-1360/scale:0.2/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1980/plot/uah6/from:1980
Regards, Allan
Allan, we noticed here in the Northeast as well. My son is a farmer and a lot of the crops have been planted later than usual. The farm made a lot of use of their greenhouses to germinate crops like corn so even with the later planting they should be pretty much on schedule unless it ends up being a cool and wet summer. Other crops will likely be OK as long as there isn’t an early frost. Only time will tell.
Late planting is OK as there are now lots of varieties of corn and soybean with lower GDD requirements. In Canada, there are corn lines which mature at 1750 or so without too much trouble. Farmers can switch to lower GDD hybrids, although I guess there will have been seed availability issues in some places.
However, as David pointed out, even late planting wasn’t an option this year as waterlogged fields have meant no planting at all. Farmers probably have options for forage crops so they will get some production from these fields, but the protein levels of forage (and hay) are just not there for high efficiency meat production. Animal feed prices are going to rise in the US and Canada – how much of that will be passed on to consumers remains to be seen as there is a very price-sensitive market for wholesale products and the supermarket chains have a lot of buying power.
There will be some very very tight margins in the meat industry this winter and some companies are going to go to the wall – expect shouts for government handouts linked to climate change – just don’t ask which way the climate is changing!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/16/quote-of-the-week-andrew-bolt-nails-fakegate/#comment-771037
Allan MacRae says:
February 16, 2012 at 10:26 pm
[excerpt}
Jimbo says:
I suspect this is why they have now changed their tactics and predict everything. Faster, slower, warmer, colder, wetter drier, etc. This is also why they change their propaganda slogan from Catastrophic Anthropogenic (Runaway) Global Warming.
Long live warmcold.
_______________________
Allan says:
Good point Jimbo ā the warmists are now married to āThe Non-Falsifiable Hypothesisā, where EVERYTHING, EVEN GLOBAL COOLING, IS EVIDENCE OF DANGEROUS MANMADE GLOBAL WARMING.
So I herewith restate my (falsifiable) hypothesis:
āYou can save yourselves a lot of time, and generally be correct, by simply assuming that EVERY SCARY PREDICTION the global warming alarmists express is FALSE.ā
Perhaps, with time and continued nonsense from the warmists, this Hypothesis will become a Theory, or even a Law (āThe Law of Warmist BSā).
Who do I ask if I can print out this article and send it to President Trump?
He seriously needs to kill the ethanol from corn program/mandate (or from any other food crop) as it raises the price of corn by existing and will force it even higher by existing in times of bad crop yields.
On the contrary, they just approved 15% gasohol all year round, which will be truly harmful for engines.
Ethanol from corn is a broken window economy, in which a business was created to save gasoline that costs more, yields less energy, and damages equipment, providing no advantage to anyone by the crony capitalists who were urged and aided to create a business that should not be.
Infrastructure these days allows a lot of agriculture to move with the seasons. For example, I can buy asparagus in the winter because it comes from Peru and not, say, Michigan. Same with other fruits and vegetables. As far as grain crops go, I suppose the productive zones would move further south, but I don’t know enough about the details of that kind of production. For sure, places like Canada and Russia might find themselves too cold to grow winter wheat and other such crops.
Hopeful thinking but not necessarily so. Modern farm equipment is designed for use on certain types of ground — mostly flat and open. Although corn will grow on rough, rocky hillsides (given extra care and more room than on nice loamy soil), modern equipment simply cannot navigate the terrain — that means it can’t be harvested mechanically. (There aren’t enough farm workers to harvest by hand.) Similarly, corn & wheat & soybeans grow poorly or not at all on naturally poor soil. That’s why people raise cattle, sheep, and goats on rough land that is able to produce graze, but unable to produce crops.
In theory, we can visualize crops growing everywhere that weather is suitable — but, in reality, conditions in hilly country and poor soil limit productive capacity….and people won’t just give up their land to accommodate somebody else’s plans. So, it ain’t gonna happen.
PS: This year’s crop losses are world wide, not just the US. We can’t import what doesn’t exist.
I’m a North American farmer, and I’m only adaptable as far as my bank account will allow. I am not infinitely adaptable, as you seem to imagine. Last year’s terrible hay crop killed my bank account, as hay increased over 100%. This year’s falling feeder calf prices are putting my account into a pine box six feet under. And, oh yeah, we’re not getting the hay in this year, because it is constantly raining. We’ll keep trying until we can’t anymore but there’s a good chance we won’t be buying any either, because we’re broke. Broke farmers don’t produce food. That’s the reality.
Chinese hog losses may decrease demand for soybeans for hog feed — but what will China’s people eat instead of their meat-mainstay? Soy, perhaps? Which increases the soybean demand along with their increased need for meat protein — and where will that come from? This just scratches the surface; crop losses from heat, cold, drought, and flood are world wide. Every nation will be scrambling for food this fall.
Folks, please get real. Never, in my entire life (6 decades plus), have I seen a growing situation as dire as this one. No amount of happy platitudes about farmer adaptability will overcome what nature is throwing at us. We need to take this seriously, because it is NOT getting better anytime soon.
Dave,
How interesting–the weather pattern this winter, the late planting season, and continued snow in Colorado and Montana this week reminded me of the descriptions of weather patterns in Europe in 1309-1317, the beginning of the Little Ice Age. I said to myself, I wonder if this is the beginning of a new cold period like the beginning of the LIA.
You may be correct, but no-one really knows how the climate operates, or whether the sun will warm up or cool down. Citing past trends is just a form of curve-fitting. In the absence of genuine understanding I suppose that similar cyclic observations would have to be favoured to repeat.
One good thing is that, since CAGW morphed into Climate Change, any distasteful climate phenomenon can be blamed on humans and the doomsayers will still look good. Climate Science wins! … ??
Agreed. No one can accurately predict the future if you include timing. There are trends that reappear, everything has to fit within the laws of physics and human nature, but it is virtually impossible to ever know the timing.
Doomsday people always win. You can bank on that one. Human nature to love failure and disasterā¦..
The field across the road from us has been Corn or Soybeans for as far back as we can remember. At least since the early 80’s, when Dad built our house out here in Northern Indiana. The field across the creek behind us was the same.
This year, we were surprised to see a crop coming in in both of those fields, despite the near constant rainfall keeping any tractors out of those fields… a crop of Winter Wheat.
A week or two ago we had a couple of dry days, and the tractors DID finally show, spraying the Wheat with a drying agent (desiccating). It’s now a ripe golden brown, ready to be harvested the next time we get a few dry days.
Apparently SOMEBODY predicted this was going to be a wet spring, clear back last fall. And they switched to a different crop, one that would work WITH the increased early rainfall.
Funny how that works, idn’t it?
~Āæ~
More glyphosate to dry the crops. Wonderful
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crop_desiccation
So, in the roughly 1 in 10 times their testing actually found Glyphosate, it never exceeding about 1/16 the Maximum level that somebody determined was safe (probably a Leftist, who pulled it out of the same orifice they pulled the 2 degree maximum safe global warming). And it usually averaged under 1% of that limit.
Not that it matters, since DOZENS of investigations from everyone up to the EPA and FDA has proven it isn’t carcinogenic. Not that you’d know that from the Yellow Stream Media, since the only study they ever quote is the clearly fraudulent one from the organization of litigation lawyers that run a ‘Scientific’ Cancer research group that has NEVER found anything they’ve investigated to be noncarcinogenic.
~Āæ~
ps I’ve had a Lefty friend explain to me that it doesn’t matter if the Glyphosate can be detected, because Homiopathy proves it’s still dangerous after all trace is gone. >Āæ<
On the other hands, patterns that repeat, are likely to repeat again.
Evidence? I have not found that to verifiable. Have you?
It looks like the early 80’s in Wyoming. Growing season was short and winters were very harsh, at negative 40 degrees most of the month of December and massive snowfall not melted by chinook winds. I’m hoping that’s what we are seeing again.
It snowed briefly in Laramie yesterday morning. I never recall such late snow in my entire life. Even the mid-1970s never produced snow so late. When I was actively farming 1982-1996 I had one year, 1993 I think, when I had to replant corn in mid-June because of a freeze. Had to go to pinto beans instead.
The question now is, will we see early snowfall in late August?
The latest I have seen snow in Casper was June 10th. August 23, 2015 it got down to 29Ā° in Casper. It stayed warm thereafter until October and my garden recovered and produced well. You really never know.
People are often surprised the find it snows every month except July in parts of Wyoming, and can snow in the mountains in July.
You all somehow survived though so growing seasons could not have been catastrophic?
Europe somehow survived 1970 when late soring snow depths were worse than 2019.
There needs to be measured thought, not wonderful or disaster and nothing in between.
Not so sure about the Europe Survived meme…
since there is highly questionable intelligence evident in EU decisions, the entier place could be members of the great zombie horde
Arrived in western MT yesterday and mountain snow cover is significant. Lows in mid 40s and highs in 60s. Hopefully just weather.
Come to France, my dear. It’s a bit warm, these days.
This is far too pessimistic assessment. The Black Death caused deaths of large number of population estimated anywhere between 70 to 150 million people in Europe and parts of Asia, most Europe’s deaths occurred around 1350.
As far as possible grand solar minimum and N. Hemisphere temperature is concerned effect may not be as great as suggested an no LIA type cooling is on cards as far as I can see it.
Dalton minimum was just couple of cycles which wasnāt long enough for temperature to drop significantly, most of the reduction is thought to be due to couple of large volcanic eruptions.
Maunder Minimum lasted 5 – 6 cycles, the fall in temperature started after about 20+ years. According to my calculations, if they are any good
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/NH-GM.htm
show what might happen if there is another Maunder type minimum in the next few decades, depending on the 60 year and the multi-centenary cycles.
Vuksavic-san:
The LIA actually started from the Wolf Grand Solar Minimum (1280~1350), during which time, roughly 25% of the European population died from : exposure from extremely cold winters, delayed planting, early and late-season frost lost, droughts, floods, tubers frozen solid in the ground, frozen waterways, very short growing seasons, etc.
The Black Death started two years after the Wolf GSM ended from 1352, and wiped out the remaining 50% of a weakened European population…
Mother Nature can be a real bi#@ch!
The Black Death started in the 1330s in China, spreading to Europe by 1347, via the Crimean city of Kaffa. Plague was present somewhere in Europe between 1346 & 1671.
No, no, not the Soy Beans.
What will happen to all those unfilled latte orders.
Soy milk is out of fashion. link There are all kinds of non-dairy milks. Oat milk seems to have been the latest craze. link
“Oatboy” just doesn’t carry the same connotation as “soyboy” does … does oat milk have the same actual (or otherwise) negative effect that soy consumption supposedly is said to have on the male physique and libido?
OH NO…NOT SOY…how will they ever deal with the loss of the great Tofuti Beist
_Jim: Us Highlanders know better, and our wives are greatful…. Oats, the food of Champions. BrettKeane
Soymilk – the hazards*:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOochquOIoo
.
.
.
.
* Intended as humor, or humour, depend on your locale.
Immortalized in song – SOY ANTHEM, by Owen Benjamin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkD4iU9nxkM
.
.
.
Again, in the category of humor, or humour, depending on locale.
Milk is produced in the mammaries of mammals. Anything else is not milk but simply a liquid that somewhat resembles milk. Words have meaning….
People get all spun up about rejecting ‘franken food’ but will slurp up any white slurry made from ‘who knows what’, as long as it has the word ‘milk’ tacked onto the label.
Where does milkweed fall on the milk scale?
A weed that produces a white sticky sap that resembles mammalian produced milk.
Not milk.
Or they’ll slurp up puss filled lactation. No accounting for taste.
“Current solar activity is back to levels of the Little Ice Age”.
What on earth makes you come out with such a dogmatic statement.
Such things seriously damage your credibility,- and I think you will find Leif totally disagrees with you.
I don’t believe you.
Here in Ural we have a cold start to summer but a blocking high over all of Scandinavia already for 6-8 weeks.
Little ice age?
I don’t see it, we haven’t had a really cold winter in at least 7 years
(look up Estonia ice roads to check! You will see they have scarcely opened them for more than 4-6 weeks in a decade!)
He did say solar activity, not conditions. Reading is fundamental.
Some folks in N America may disagree w/ you about āno cold wintersā. Maybe it is just weather. However, Iāve seen some reconstructions of global temps during past grand minimums showing uneven cooling.
Circulation in the lower stratosphere has a huge impact on the jet streams in the upper troposphere. Therefore, scientists underestimate the changes in chemical composition in the lower stratosphere in the period of low magnetic activity of the Sun. These changes result from an increase in the ionization of the lower stratosphere by galactic radiation.
http://oi65.tinypic.com/294mhad.jpg
Circulation in the lower stratosphere is perfectly visible in the troposphere. Whatās more, it is a very stable circulation. This is due to the constant distribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere.
http://oi64.tinypic.com/16awrh4.jpg
Ozone is not dispersed in the lower stratosphere above the polar circles. Occurs in specific areas in large clusters. In the period of low magnetic activity of the Sun, the distribution of ozone depends on the strength of the magnetic field over the polar circles.
āIn satellite imagery, Stratospheric Intrusions are identified by very low moisture levels in the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.5, and 6.9 micron). Along with the dry air, Stratospheric Intrusions bring high amounts of ozone into the tropospheric column and possibly near the surface.ā
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/
Ozone as a diamagnetic is repelled by the magnetic field.
We say it is paramagnetic. Good oxygen measurement cells are paramagnetic devices.
O2 is paramagnetic, unlike O3, which is diamagnetic.
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan, “If this rain doesn’t stop.”
And stop it did, in God’s good time; . . .
[P J Hartigan (John O’Brien) – Australian Bush Poetry]
Please see how another wave of dry cold air from the south reaches Australia.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/ausf/mimictpw_ausf_latest.gif
yeah, thanks….its damned cold day and night presently, the frogs stopped singing after the first frosts , whats left of the garden is now frost burnt n sad looking. some rain to warm it up would be nice
Surface temperature waves in the eastern equatorial Pacific correspond to waves in the lower stratosphere.
The increase in ionization in the stratosphere results in an increase in geopotential above the polar circle.
In the following years, due to the decrease in the magnetic activity of the Sun, the amount of stratospheric intrusion will increase. The result will be an increase in weather anomalies and a decline in agricultural production in medium latitudes.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
A dangerous storm front in Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ruston-la/71270/weather-radar/333433
One bad season and a few unobserved sunspots is not enough to predict global famine from.
Little Ice Ages happen, run away warming doesn’t.
That said, yes the doom of cold projection is high in unintended irony.
That point seems to be missed by most. Enjoy summer while you can.
I have lived in Ohio since 1960, and have seen not had any significant cold patterns which lasted more than 3 years (1976-1979), no long term droughts, or extreme wet periods of more than a few months. Other than a modest winter warming and some increasing rain since the 60’s I have not seen any thing that I would call climate change.
This is just nonsense. Just imagine if somebody implied that because summer in Australia was 2 degrees warmer than average that global warming was imminent and certain to cause cannibalism and the death of 10
percent of the world’s population. Everybody here would rightly poke fun at such a claim. And everyone should be doing the same for the claims about imminent global winter.
Agree.
err yup BUT those sort of idiot claims over a small rise in ayr temp ARE getting the crazy claims..
meanwhile if it does go colder for a while we have no plan B at all
The flooding is NOT anything to do with any little ice age – this is climate change affecting the US.
See also extreme rain across UK and France, coming heatwave in Europe, Mozambique, Queensland, etc, etc
It would be climate change, if the flooding was increasing. According to the NCA in both 2014 and 2017, it is not. According to the IPCC AR5, there are no trends in global flooding.
This guy Griff never responds to being debunked non stop. So no point really in replying.
Flooding is at least 50% due to human causes. Poor planning, living in areas one KNOWS flood, etc. However, since the human climate has changed and human intelligence seems to be on the wain, “climate change” could be correct. It’s just not the atmosphere and weather we are referring to there Griff.
Griffy has its beliefs. Don’t confuse it with facts.
Ironically, flood control also results in more flooding. Forcing the water to stay in the main channel by the use of levies reduces the total amount of water that can flow in a river resulting in water backing up.
There’s also land use changes that result in water running off more quickly.
David Brin noted this years ago with an article in Contrary Brin “The River Will Win”. He said the riverbed would rise relative to surrounding land and that the delta would die ( Mississippi River ) because dredging the ship’s channel for decades would increase flow to the point where silt which would have built up would be carried out deep into the Gulf of Mexico instead.
Land use changes are really dramatic in the Amazon. where clearcutting forests has left mud flats. Those are a lot drier without trees to retain moisture.
Recall your prediction a couple of years back about the Arctic being ice free? Your prediction failed (As well as Tony McLeod’s). You now predict heatwaves for Queesnland? Should be an interesting summer.
heatwave qld? what are you sniffing?
Yep, Heat wave…It’ll be 19 in Brisbane instead of 17 (though the June Average is 21)
Yeah, yeah, we know: flooding and cool weather = “climate change”, while drought and warm weather = “global warming”. Amazing what little ol’ CO2 can do, eh?
Ah yes, the everything is caused by CO2 troll cometh.
griff, “climate change” is imaginary. It’s changeable weather.
Nothing extreme about the rain in the UK.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/06/17/unprecedented-rainfall-in-lincolnshire/
The flooding seen, had the same causes at that seen in the Somerset area, in 2016, lack of dredging of rivers.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/somerset-floods-rainfall-was-not-unprecedented-so-why-did-the-levels-flood/
griff
there are hundreds of records of flooding and hundreds of records about heat waves that we can trace back thousands of years. In the UK we have excellent records that continually reference these extremes.
why do you believe them to be unique and caused by man?
tonyb
Griff, you’ve been deluded by Magical Thinking and indoctrination into today’s Junk Climate Science.
The basic problem with your rationalization of climate change today is you have zero knowledge of history. Everything today apparently is due to CC, but what about all those floods in the 1920’s, 1950’s.
Nothing happening today even comes close to the Great Mississippi flood of 1927. Was that climate change at 295 ppm CO2????
Believing that natural cycles and natural climate (and weather!!!) variation ended after CO2 rose above 300 ppm and everything today in due to Climate Change is simply Magical Thinking.
The reality is any anthropogenic signal of CO2-driven climate change has not risen above the natural noise of climate and weather variability.
That is fact.
One of the great things about the Climate Cult, is that the worst the unwashed youth of today have to worry about is a few degrees of nicer weather, whereas if the press had got hold of what the global cooling doomongers are saying here, they’d all be dirtying their nappies (diapers)
“The Modern Warm Period ended in 2006. Current solar activity is back to levels of the Little Ice Age. To paraphrase Santayana, those who donāt remember history are condemned to being surprised and unprepared when it repeats itself.”
That brings to mind an earlier Archibald prediction, made just after 2006, in a submission to the Australian Senate:
“2008 is the tenth anniversary of the recent peak on global temperature in 1998. The world has been cooling at 0.06 degrees per annum since then. My prediction is that this rate of cooling will accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum following the month of solar minimum sometime in 2009.”
Also pretty dramatic. That would have us down by more than 2°C since 2008. Instead, of course, it has just gone on warming.
Are you sure?
What does the average global SST on one day, June 22, 2019, have to do with Archibaldās prediction? Anyway, at anomaly 0.2Ā°C, it certainly doesnāt indicate a 2Ā°C drop.
Interesting that he does not want to warm up in the tropics.
Nick is listening to the surface temp homogenizers as the fields lie unplanted.
He also knows that in five years time, today’s temperatures will probably have been significantly adjusted, such that everybody gets to be right, or wrong, depending on the whim of the adjustment-masters general.
It stopped being proper science a long time ago and is now little better than computerized witch craft.
Since there are no reliable data but only questionable proxies for exceptional
catastrophic warming or disastrous cooling during last millennium, only logical conclusion that can be made is that present climate is nothing more or less than normal
David Archibald’s predictions have not been of normality. He is from the “Coming Little Ice Age” doomster cult.
Wow, such emotionalism. Must be an anti-sun “cult” thing.
The burden of proof is placed on those that predict that things are going to change dramatically.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the evidence is lacking, both for alarming warming or alarming cooling.
People like David Archibald damage the cause by pushing foolish predictions that get publicized and then fail spectacularly.
Fun with statistics. It never ends.
Welcome to summer in Summit County, CO
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1142421292269887488
A mini cold period, 2020 to 2050?
http://www.thegwpf.org/professor-valentina-zharkhova-the-solar-magnetic-field-and-the-terrestrial-climate/
John Doran.
Ilya Usoskin did proved Zharkova’s model wrong:
Usoskin, I.G., 2018. Comment on the paper by Popova et al.āOn a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cyclesā. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 176, pp.69-71.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05203
Javier
How does Usoskin’s work square with the paper just released by NASA’S Ames Research Center – authored by one Irina Kitiashvili?
One would think that the observable evidence of increased noctilucent clouds, upper atmospheric temperature drops, reduced sunspots, elevated radiation reading in commercial airlines, extended winter seasons would all buttress Zharkova’s work.
Apparently, from all the sites I am following (Stephanie Osborne’s is especially informative to a non wonk such as myself … ‘accordingtohoytdotcom’), the evidence of this Grand Solar Minimum is irrefutable.
There were 54 predictions for SC24 and the great majority were wrong, and many of them by a wide margin:
Pesnell, W.D., 2008. Predictions of solar cycle 24. Solar Physics, 252(1), pp.209-220.
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-008-9252-2.pdf
How many of the few that were not too off were so for the wrong reasons? SC25 will surely make some winners from SC24 into losers.
Kitiashvili’s method predicts a lower SC25 than SC24 and is based on data assimilation:
Kitiashvili, I.N., 2016. Data assimilation approach for forecast of solar activity cycles. The Astrophysical Journal, 831(1), p.15.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-637X/831/1/15/meta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jP9_4uoEdKg
But it has a problem, that is essentially the same problem Zharkova has. The data she is assimilating belongs to solar cycles 21 to 24 and therefore is data that goes only in the direction of decreasing solar activity. That skews the result towards continuing the trend.
Solar activity is cyclical and when taking into account the periodicities it presents the result is that it has already reached its minimum activity for this centennial low. And the incontrovertible evidence is that the SC23-24 minimum had less activity than the SC24-25 minimum is having.
I’ve been saying since 2016 that what I see in my analysis of past activity is increasing solar activity for the next cycles, not decreasing. My solar model does a fair job of reproducing past solar activity even if it doesn’t always nail maximum activity.
It shows solar activity peaking towards the end of the 21st century before initiating a long descent of several centuries with the next grand minimum at least three centuries away.
For SC25 it agrees with what Leif has been saying from looking at the polar fields. It should be between SC24 and SC20.
If you find yourself following sites that say the same you must consider the possibility that it is not because they are correct, but because you show a bias in your selection.
We should see large icebergs in the North Atlantic and great sea floods in northern Europe before we reach 1300 AD conditions.
If the North Atlantic Oscillation remains in negative mode for a couple of decades, similar to the 1950s and 60s, then we could expect to see ice floes on the Thames and sea freezing off the Kent coast.
There was a lot Icelandic volcanic activity during the early 14th. century.
Two major eruptions took place in the Katla volcano . 1311 and 1357. Also the Hecla volcano erupted in 1300-1 .
Both these produced large quantities of ash which covered a lot of Europe and resulted in famine and destitution. I doubt that the scientists have included in variable in their manipulated statistics.
I believe Katla is a bit overdue for the next eruption. More concern to me than wretched Climate change.
Perhaps Greta Lomberg should be told about that, so the Greens can convert the problem into a tax regime.?
What does the average global SST on June 22, 2019, have to do with Archibald’s prediction? At anomaly 0.2°C, it certainly doesn’t indicate a 2°C drop.
Climate alarmism of the worst kind. Extrapolating from regional to global weather is absurd. We live in a global economy so bad crops in one place are compensated by imports from others.
Even the 1315-17 famine was regional. Spain, Portugal, great part of Italy, Byzantium, and the Southern Mediterranean were not affected. To compare what happened them, when the capacity to transport food was very limited, to now is absurd.
And let’s remember that David Archibald has been consistently wrong in his climate predictions since 2007 when he published:
Archibald, D.C., 2007. Climate outlook to 2030. Energy & Environment, 18(5), pp.615-620.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1260/0958-305X.18.5.615
“increased certainty that that there will be a global average temperature decline in the range of 1Ā° to 2Ā°C for the forecast period.”
Instead the global average temperature has increased since 2007.
And in 2013 he predicted that the current solar minimum wouldn’t come until 2026:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/05/how-long-to-the-2425-solar-minimum/
“On this line of evidence, Solar Cycle 24 will be 17 years long and the longest solar cycle for 300 years. We have a long wait ahead of us ā half a generation.”
Believe anything he says at your own peril. Instead of discrediting the global warming alarmism he is discrediting the skeptics.
Gracias.
Thanks for this precise answer. We certainly disagree about different things, but here we don’t.
A look at the top 20 of the sorted GHCN daily anomalies for CONUS wrt 1981-2010 from Jan 1900 till May 2019:
1936 2 -4.47
1977 1 -4.04
1978 2 -3.98
1905 2 -3.90
1979 1 -3.89
1940 1 -3.66
1918 1 -3.41
1929 2 -3.31
1979 2 -3.28
1989 12 -3.27
1969 3 -3.26
1930 1 -3.17
1915 3 -3.15
1983 12 -3.10
1909 12 -3.07
1960 3 -3.05
1978 1 -2.88
1912 3 -2.80
1914 12 -2.74
1963 12 -2.72
The first 2018/19 anomaly appears at position 138, and no, it is not a 2019 month:
2018 11 -1.26
The unsorted time series ends with
2018 12 1.11
2019 1 0.08
2019 2 -0.70
2019 3 -1.03
2019 4 0.42
2019 5 -0.27
*
Warmistas aren’t smart, but Coolistas are even less.
Much too early to warn about 1315 and after, IMO. 5-10 more years of the same conditions, the we’re talking. But not of disaster, humans are more than able to cope with a cooler climate.
humans maybe but food crops we like and animals dont do as well in cold, energy expended to keep warm reduces meat/milk though its ok for fleece production up to a point cold and wet isnt good for fine wool production either and footrot and other issues are a bugger to cope with
May have to encourage more planting in Mexico and southward to help us get over this spell of wet weather. Give those migrants something to do.
The mandated use of biofuels such as the Ethanol Mandate have the economic effect of tying the price of the field crops used to the market price of the hydrocarbon fuels they must be blended with. In essence, if a gasoline retailer wants to sell a gallon of gasoline, they must acquire a certain amount of ethanol. The market price of the final fuel product sets the ceiling for how much can be paid for the ethanol, irrespective of its value as human or animal food. This linkage sets up market forces whereby vehicle use competes for corn against food use of corn. And as we know from the housing debacle and financial collapse of 2007-2008, government takes years to repeal or suspend the rules that caused the crisis.
Currently we consume around 36% of our entire corn crop for fuel blending and biofuels. What happens when poor growing conditions reduce the corn harvest by 40%? We may soon find out.
The EPA has the authority under the law to lower the obligation without legislative action.
The obligation is set each fall for the next year. If the corn harvest is small this summer, the EPA will have time to reduce the obligation for 2020.
Maybe they ought to start now, not wait till Fall…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-24/shocking-after-photos-reveal-awful-truth-about-widespread-us-crop-failures-2019
Maybe the EPA to start now, not wait till Fall…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-24/shocking-after-photos-reveal-awful-truth-about-widespread-us-crop-failures-2019
Regarding “animal fat is essential for infant neurological development and brain function”: Isn’t that a reason for infants to drink mothers’ milk?
Donald, that and colostrom that is in the early milk to transfer antibodies for protection against disease on newborns. This is a function that mod folk seem unaware of.
Valentina Zharkova Magnetic Fields & Wavelengths SGSM Grand Solar Minimum
Ilya Usoskin proved her wrong:
Usoskin, I.G., 2018. Comment on the paper by Popova et al.āOn a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cyclesā. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 176, pp.69-71.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05203
Ilya Usoskin has already proven her model wrong:
Usoskin, I.G., 2018. Comment on the paper by Popova et al.āOn a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cyclesā. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 176, pp.69-71.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05203
These people of the Super Grand Solar Minimum (SGSM) don’t know what they talk about. Behind all these doom cults there is always a scam operating.
Anyone can prove her wrong. Her model has peak low amplitude in the 1700’s rather than the 1600’s, and places the Dalton minimum entirely within the 1700’s. Then it has a totally fake Medieval Warm Period in the 1400’s, with peak model power during probably the most severe centennial minimum of the LIA series from around 1425. In reality the model disproves a 400 year cycle. She must be hypnotizing people with her accent and hand-waves for them not to notice such stark incongruities.
The changing climate at the end of the Medieval Warm period at Torre Abbey Torquay Devon, as set out in the recently researched general information boards set in the Abbey Buildings
The Abbey -established in 1196- is set back around 200 yards from the shores of Torbay in South Devon. now known as the English Riviera.
āCanons lived austere lives with only one heated room known as the calefactory (Latin Calefactus-made warm.) The additional fireplaces added during the 1300ās reflect the extreme weather conditions of this period.
As the climate deteriorated during the 1300ās the original thatched roof of the Barn was replaced with a slate roof that was better able to to deal with stormy weather coming in from the sea (note; this signifies a change from warmer Westerlies to colder Easterlies)
The most dramatic change in response to climate were the alterations to the cloister. The original cloister had wide walkways with gently sloping roofs where canons could sit and study or pray . As the climate became colder and wetter, this was no longer possible. The cloister was rebuilt with narrower walks and less shelter. The pitch of the roof was increased to shed heavy rains and even snow.
āClimate change summary board; From 1370 the Abbey was altered to cope with a colder wetter climate. The thatched barn was re-roofed with skate . The cloister was rebuilt with steep roofs to take away the rain and narrow walks as it was now too cold to work in them . New fireplaces were added.ā
So we have physical proof that weather changes. Ironically the decades following this rebuilding of the abbey were quite settled and warm.
tonyb
Cooling, to whatever degree is more likely than any further warming. If we’re lucky, maybe we’ll only slip back to the period of the 40s thru 70s, or perhaps the Dalton era. The point is, humanity, and nature in general are far more threatened by cooling than warming. That is both historical fact, and common sense. What we are doing in “preparing” for a mythical beast – manmade global warming, punishing “carbon”, and hurting ourselves both economically as well as in our all-important energy sectors would be stupid enough in good times, but if you add significant cooling to it, that could have disasterous consequences.
This article is undoubtedly too alarmist, but one truth Archibald speaks is that food stocks are smaller than most people think. It is good to keep in mind.
It would be nice to have a climate model that included relevent physics instead of the alarmist exercise we have now. This wet spell will happen again and we’ll be just as unprepared next time.
There’s a lot of wet ground sitting out in farm fields. If the rains continue the crops in these areas will be stunted. This will add to the reduction in yields. If the wet weather across the central US seen in June continues into July it might not take an early frost to reduce yields by 30%.
The big factor that David is missing is the oceans. They are warmer now than they were during the LIA. I can’t see any big drop in global temperatures until the oceans cool and there is no signs of any major ocean cooling.
One year’s weather does not signify an ice age.
The key part of David Archibald’s article to worry about is that populations boom during beneficial periods.
The worrisome part is that populations bust during any declines from optimal conditions.
All of those wonderful climbing yields graphics do not look so pleasant when yields decline, or heaven forfend, plummet.
When crops that require longer growing periods are not suitable, it is possible to plant crops that reach maturity quicker; pinto beans as mentioned above by Kevin kilty.
Canada, Northern Europe, Russia, Koreas, Gobi and let’s not forget the Southern Hemisphere’s higher latitudes, may have disappointing crop yields in the future.
Fortunately, that is not the case. North America’s wet planting season and cool growing conditions do not appear to be world wide.
“World Agricultural Production (WAP) Circular
WAP Current Update (Jun 11, 2019)
• Ukraine Wheat: Record Yield Expected
Ukraine wheat production for 2019/20 is forecast at 30.0 million metric tons, up 3 percent from last month and up 20 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 7.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 4 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 4.29 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last month and up 15 percent from last year. The month-to-month increase in yield is attributed to favorable weather in the Steppe Zone, which accounts for about half of Ukraineās production. Landsat imagery shows favorable conditions compared to last year. Additionally, MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Steppe Zone depicts an above-average crop. All USDA crop production estimates for Ukraine include estimated output from Crimea. (For more information, please contact Katie.McGaughey@fas.usda.gov.)
• Russia Wheat: Spring Wheat Planting Nearly Complete; Good Conditions for Winter Wheat
• India Wheat: Wheat Estimated at Record Production
• European Union Wheat: Mixed Weather Conditions with Drought in Spain; Favorable Rains in East
• European Union Rapeseed: Unchanged Production Despite Mixed Conditions
• Canada Corn: Delayed Planting Due to Unfavorable Wetness
• Brazil Corn: Continued Rains Boost Second-Crop Corn Yields for 2018/19
• Argentina Corn: Record Corn Area Expected
• Spain Barley: Dryness Lowers Crop Prospects
• Madagascar Rice: Favorable Production for Two Consecutive Years
• Thailand Rice: Forecast Production Expected to Increase Due to Expansion in Planted Area”
The warning about bust cycles should be considered carefully, but it is not time to “Run in circles, scream and shout”, yet.
Scale, scale is important. US corn production is normally 400 million tonnes per annum. That is 13 times the size of your Ukrainian wheat crop. The proportion that is used to make ethanol could feed 400 million Mexicans.
š Clouds, silver lining. The Russians do not truck with GM crops. What has happened is that unnatural crops have suffered a setback. Tsk.
I’d prefer they get rid of it entirely, but congress could do a one year relaxation of the ethanol requirements for gasoline.
Go to
http://www.cmegroup.com
and look corn futures prices for this year’s harvest. If you are right about nine dollar corn, you could make a lot of money. Or maybe the market is closer to right and you are wrong. We shall see in a few months.
My wife and I, and our close-knit circle of friends decorate our yards and gardens with hundreds of chrysanthemum plants. Started with my father, finding unusual varieties, and ‘gifting’ pots of them every year to everyone. I do the same. Soā¦ lots of ‘mums.
Strikingly this year, and in only one year in memory before this, almost all the ‘mums are already blooming. Its blĆ“ody June! Collectively, they usually wait to September thru November depending on weather and the caprice of nature.
My cousins three came over last evening, and without prompting started talking about how their ‘mums are budding and popping already. Quite something.
The armchair gardener-weather-observer in me is troubled. Does this portend a very early upcoming Winter, and a defeat of our families’ retirement income bolstering food crops? Dunno. I hope not. But āthe plants, they know thingsā has always been a high-correlation observation. And the mums are popping.
Also, this is the absolute latest year anyone can recall for the ripening of the lovely Blenheim apricots that we all grow. They’re such lovely fruit just off the tree. By June 24th, most every year, I’ve already harvested all the extras from all our trees, and have put up jar after jar of jams, pie fillings, freezer bags, and syrups. Haven’t picked a single ‘cot this year so far. They’re tryingā¦ you can tell. But still hard, yellow-green and sour.
Anyway.
From HAYWARD California, where our roads and lanes are named āBerry Lnā, and āCherryland Courtā and āApricot St.ā and āPeach Roadā. Before wall-to-wall housing, it once was quite the open orchard land. Just a few sturdy old home-garden trees survive. And mostly they’re very happy and productive. This year is different.
Just saying,
GoatGuy ā
In the event of another Little Ice Age, I will predict that there will be not so much an effort to burn more coal by crusaders. Something about Malthus attitude more than any scientific argument.
We were asked by a major agricultural advisory service to look at cooling versus warming impacts on agriculture in 2014. We found cooling is far more harmful to food security than a moderate warming. https://alarmistclaimresearch.files.wordpress.com/2019/05/white-paper-ag-and-cooling-versus-warming.docx
So the least healthy crops most responsible for the unhealthy American diet and obesity epidemic are well below historic averages… I’m really struggling to see this as a bad thing.
“The Chronicle of Guillaume de Nangis, written by a monk at the Abbey of Saint-Denis, records records their [rains] start in the middle of April. Other accounts have the storms arriving in Flanders around Pentecost, May 11. The abbot of Saint-Vincent, near Leon, noted that ‘it rained most marvelously and for so long.’ So long, in fact, that it didn’t stop, excepts for a day or two, until August. By one count, it rained for 155 days in a row, virtually everywhere in Europe north of the Pyrenees and Apls, west of the Urals: throughout France, Britain. the Baltic, and German principalities, Poland, and Lithuania. A weather index prepared in the twentieth century calculated the severity of winter frosts and summer rains throughout the Middle Ages, and not only found that the two decades 1310-1330 contained the worst winters on record but that the rainy years between 1310 and 1330 included the four worst winters in four centuries.”
–“The Third Horseman”
William Rosen
Penguin Books
2014
Bob
Thanks for reminding me of that book which has been placed on my birthday present list. The following come from a number of my sources and refer primarily to Central England and London. It illustrates the ups and downs of our climate. The winter of 1309/10 appears to have been the worst for many decades.
1309/10
Around Christmas great frost and ice on the thames which was used as a passageway
āsuch masses of encrusted ice were on the thames that men took their way thereon from queenhithe in southwark and from westminster into London and it lasted so long that the people indulged in dancing in the midst of it near a certain fire made on the same and hunted a hare with dogs in the midst of the Thames; London bridge was in great peril and permanently damaged. And the bridge at Rochester and the other bridges standing in the current were wholly broken down,.ā
Said to be a north wind blowing then a great thaw and flooding that rose so fast the king had to hastily leave Salisbury cathedral lest he drowned. . this rage endured for two days.
1313 the past year was neither cloudy nor serene neither disturbed nor calm-an ordinary year
1314 great wind and rain through much of the year āso not seven serene days together could be foundā
Generally there seemed to be great famines 1314-1316 caused by wet weather
the rain lasted from Whitsun of 1314 to Easter of 1315.
1315 great inundations of rain for nearly the whole year
1316 great inundation of rain in the summer and autumn
Said to be the last serious famine in England.
1317 very good summer and an early and plentiful harvest.
1318 in Ireland snow the like of which had not been seen for a long time fell.
1321 very hot dry summer according to Short.
1321 aurora display in London on nov 4th
1324 great drought but might refer to 1325
1325 great drought- such a shortage of water in the Thames that the water of the Thames was salt āprobably related to London.
1326 great drought in summer and in other times of the year. Brooks and streams dried up that had never previously done so. Again a remark that the river Thames for nearly a whole year was salt certainly seems to have been 2 consecutive dry years probably 1325 and 1326
tonyb
Decades ago I ran into the annals from Cambridge or Oxford.
Kept track of wheat prices, weather, and crop conditions during each year.
Through the 1300s.
Rosen writes that ploughed fields had topsoil washed away.
The grass was poor so animals were malnourished and subject to diseases.
Salt could not be evaporated so preserving of fish and meat was restricted.
Javier:
You omitted a reference to Professor Zharkova’s reply to Usoskin’s criticisms of her paper.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682617304728?via%3Dihub
If her predictions for sunspot cycles 25 and 26 are as good as her prediction for cycle 24 then her dynamo theory of the sun’s inner workings may yet be vindicated. It is too early to dismiss her work out of hand.
You’ve got to be kidding me. The prediction was published in 2017:
Popova, E., Zharkova, V.V., Shepherd, S.J., Zharkov, S.I., 2017a. On a role of quadruple
component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles. J. Atmos. solar-
Terres. Phys. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.05.006.
While solar cycle 24 started in 2009 and had peaked by 2014. Changing the quote attributed to Yogi Berra, “It is easy to make predictions, especially about the past.”
Zharkova made a principal component analysis for solar data for just three solar cycles (21-23):
Zharkova, V.V., Shepherd, S.J. and Zharkov, S.I., 2012. Principal component analysis of background and sunspot magnetic field variations during solar cycles 21ā23. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 424(4), pp.2943-2953.
What’s wrong with that? It is too short a period (~30 years) and it is a period of declining solar activity only. So her result is unreliable as Usoskin says.
She writes:
“We believe that the Sun is on our side, because in a few years time our star will start the next grand minimum (2020ā2053), as we predicted and everyone on the Earth will witness it, including U17 [Usoskin].”
Seriously? The Sun on their side? The polar fields method should have to be seriously wrong for SC25 to be as small as she has predicted, and unlike her limited analysis, the polar fields method does reproduce the past and properly predicted SC24 before it happened.
https://www.leif.org/research/Prediction-of-SC25.pdf
Not to mention that my own analysis of cosmogenic records for the past 11,000 years and sunspots for the past 300 indicates that Zharkova hasn’t properly identified the relevant periodicities and that solar activity is likely to have been at it lowest for at least 80 years during SC24-SC25, around 2009.
The WSO data indicates that the strength of the solar polar field is starting to weaken again.
http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polarfields.png
From that the amplitude of 25 will be close to that of 24.
Predictions for later this year based on the events that have already occurred are perfectly reasonable. To a point. Adding a cautionary amendment on the effect of an early frost, IF IT OCCURS, is also ok. The comparisons to the early ice age with broad generalizations about population is absurd. As others have stated, there were many options for dying in the 1300’s. Waves of plagues (there wasn’t one outbreak of Bubonic plague, there were several), war, starvation due to cooling, breakdown in social structures, continued Muslim depredation on the Mediterranean coasts, etc. Living conditions then are not analogous to conditions today. Technology, energy, communications, travel, etc. have some negative effects when nature gets nasty, but the positives are so overwhelming in comparison, you can’t extrapolate all the causes of 14th Century European population decline to the 21st Century.
The little ice age was observed and those observations were written down
Detailed chronology (list of historical facts) of little ice age by James S. Aber
http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/ice/lec19/holocene.htm
The waving jet will not help farmers in the central US.
Ren thankyou for your input.
Bad forecast for central US. Jet 500 hPa will fall again over California.
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/North_America/gfs_cape_usa72.png
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/usa.html
Greetings.
I think what’s in store is a split between both warming and cooling alarmist positions. I recall an unusual frost in ~1967 in June in southern Ontario. An NHL hockey star had famously retired and put all his savings into a huge crop (corn?) only to lose everything.
The intelligent and knowledgeable among the crisis warming folk have to be much less certain of their position these days. Changing over from Catastrophic Anthropo Global Warming to
very ho-hum “Climate Change” after the nerve battering “hiatus” is proof of that. Then drastically shifting the goal posts from +2C above 1950 to a paltry 1.5C above 1850, which is really 0.7C above 1950 and selling the alarmist synod on the notion that this is a dangerous threshold is the biggest “tell”: The consensus scientists reveal that they don’t believe it will warm anymore this century than the 0.8 of the last century. This is clear to those who don’t even play poker. But alarmist cooling, too, is jumping to conclusions from a few data points in the climate noise. I do believe honorable scientists are going to learn something significant about climate in the coming decade.
It makes me think that author of the article, however knowledgeable is not old enough to remember early 1970’s climate change scary stories as this one from the NY Times
https://www.denverpost.com/2019/06/22/colorado-weather-rain-snow-summer/
and snow in late June
The weather will not help farmers.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/06/27/0000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=cape/orthographic=-95.52,37.87,2059/loc=-94.725,39.722
David,
RE: “The emerged crop is one month behind where it was in 2018. Which means that maturity will be one month later at best, assuming that the rest of the summer isnāt abnormally cold.”
Not quite right. When cold and rain prevents farmers from planting the ‘normal’ 110 – 120 day maturity corn varieties, they usually buy shorter maturity varieties (90 day) to accommodate the shortened growing season.
Hay production is also imperiled. The continued rains across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio has seriously delayed the 1st cutting of both alfalfa and grass hay. In some areas, it is so wet and the hay crop is so far past prime and spoiled that it will likely be cut, removed from the fields, and thrown away to allow the 2nd cutting regrowth to progress! Cut hay needs 3 to 5 days of sunny drying weather before it can be safely baled and stored without molding or spontaneously combusting. When the underlying soils are water saturated, the cut/crimped hay takes longer (5 sunny days) to dry sufficiently… and may still require heavy additions of ‘preservatives’ to prevent molding and/or heating.
So should President Trump issue an executive order canceling the ethanol quota for gasoline?
Or just let people starve?
I do not believe that the interesting analysis supports the far reaching conclusion. There is no point in replacing premature fear mongering conclusions from the warmists with premature fear mongering “coldists” conclusions.
Not a farmer , except if you consider my lawn. Haven’t watered it yet this year and, due to the weather forecasts, don’t expect to have to until sometime in July. Great lakes are ‘way up. I don’t get it. Water seeks its own level. Why isn’t it shooting horizontally a hundred feet out from Niagara Falls?
“Why isnāt it shooting horizontally a hundred feet out from Niagara Falls?”
How do you it isn’t?
NoTricksZone has a potentially game-changing article on coral in the western Indian Ocean and the GBR (Great Barrier Reef). It turns out that, both recently and historically, coral bleaching and die-offs are associated with ocean cooling and sea level fall.
https://notrickszone.com/2019/06/24/coral-mortality-rates-higher-during-cold-periods-and-theres-been-recent-cooling-in-coral-environments/
The exact opposite of coral scare stories – that Peter Rudd has exposed as flawed – where the culprit was supposed to be warming and sea level rise.
For instance Ampou et al 2017 showed that recent coral bleaching in Indonesia was not caused by the 2016 El NiƱo but by a sharp episode or sea level fall that occurred just before it:
https://www.biogeosciences.net/14/817/2017/bg-14-817-2017.pdf
In the western Indian Ocean SSTs have cooled, not warmed, since the 1990s. Likewise there has been no ocean warming at all around the GBR since 1990. In this field politicised science has wandered very far from reality.
Well, it looks like for this year, based on the weather we have already experienced, corn prices will go significantly higher.
I think the prudent thing to do is to stock up on bourbon, today, before the prices go up. Fortunately, it has a very long shelf life, although Iāve never personally had any that stayed on the shelf for very long.
āStock up on bourbonāā¦ is pretty funny.
Turns out that if you just take the numbers in the article at face value and work them backwards:
$9.00 a bushel
Bushel = 56 lbs
Spent grain for hogs = 18 lbs.
You get (56ā18 = 38 lbs). $9.00 Ć· 38 = 24Ā¢/lb.
Now in the spirit of how sugarāalcohol works, without going all Chemical Engineering crazy, in rough terms (but surprisingly accurate), it takes 2 kg of sugar to produce 1 kg of alcohol. Seriously close.
AND it turns out that when a bottle of fine Kentucky Branch is running what, 80 proof? That means it is āøā°āā = 40% alcohol ā¦ by blended MASS. Not volume. The peeps at the dATF know their science. We science blokes and lasses quickly realize that only units of dry mass are worth recording and considering.
Soā¦
750 ml of Branch at 80Ā° proof =
0.75ā Ć 0.40 (sort of) =
0.3ā of alcohol ā¦ which equals about 0.25 kg of the stuff ā¦
Which takes 0.5 kg of the difference (38 lb/bush) to make, assuming 100% conversion and collection.
Reality is different than that.
Having (ahem, ahem, ahem) my fair life of distilling all nature of fermentations, well ā¦
Truth is that getting 75% useful conversion is pretty expected. Sometimes 85%. Rarely below 70%
So, 0.5 kg Ć· 0.75 conversion = 0.67 kg of corn per bottle of High Test.
At 53Ā¢/kg, that’d be 35Ā¢ worth.
Hate to be the buzz-kill, but whether the intrinsic alcohol costs 28Ā¢/bottle or 35Ā¢/bottle or 45Ā¢/bottle hardly makes a difference in the world for fine Kentucky, Tennessee, and occasionally far flung communities such as those found in the magnificent states of Wyoming, Montana, Texas and Pennsylvania to produce their spectacularly well flavored sour corn whiskies.
As an American Whisky devotƩe,
Just saying,
GoatGuy ā
Your posting is a keeper, Goatguy! An uncle of mine was the still maker for the best moonshine in-between-the-lakes in Manitoba, Canada when I was a kid about 70yrs ago. He had a book with his various designs and capacities and the coded names of his customers. When he read of one of the stills being busted up by the RCMP (the “Mounties”) he immediately began building a new still for this customer. His stills had strategically located thermometers for quality control to minimize “fusel oils” or fuselol from the product. Fusel (oils) from the German meaning bad alcohol.
“The Setup is like 1315”
Not at all. A useful analogue is 179.5 years back, in 1840. Which suggest positive NAO/AO for July, negative for August, and strongly positive for September for good harvest weather.
correction: 179.05 years.
If ENSO stays neutral, the ski season in the Rocky Mountains may start as early as September.
Global cooling is elitist, lengthening the ski season for us.
Next week I will be taking my 4th airline trip in the last 6 months. Total hours in the air when I get back on July 5 is about 30 hours. I should be glowing like the metal on the edge of a knife
Sorry my last comment was on the wrong thread.
To demonstrate how thoroughly meaningless such guest posts can be: here is the top 30 of an increasing sort of the monthly anomaly averages (wrt mean of 1981-2010) of all GHCN stations located in Indiana:
1977 1 -9.41
1978 2 -8.55
1918 1 -8.17
1960 3 -8.10
1979 2 -7.36
1989 12 -7.12
2000 12 -6.58
2015 2 -6.36
1940 1 -6.31
1963 12 -6.13
2007 2 -5.95
1983 12 -5.70
1978 1 -5.53
1979 1 -5.46
1912 1 -5.43
1905 2 -5.41
1917 12 -5.36
1902 2 -5.02
1907 4 -5.02
1906 3 -5.01
2014 2 -5.01
1976 11 -4.90
1912 3 -4.82
1963 2 -4.81
1984 3 -4.80
1912 2 -4.68
1914 2 -4.54
1963 1 -4.50
1936 2 -4.48
1982 1 -4.42
The first anomaly for 2018 is a lot below:
2018 4 -4.03
and that for 2019 is even farer below:
2019 3 -2.37
Thus, in fact, after a little drop in 2014/2015, winter temperatures are increasing in Indiana (like they do in many places in CONUS).
The Setup is like 1315:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yk-MW_a4pL_Rl3lnMVwSVFKmzPrV8ajy/view
Oh yes! Welcome to the believers of the incoming New (Ice) Age.
Is it possible to behave more ridiculous?
Rgds
J.-P. D.
I expect you will be up to your bottom in snow still crying it’s not true.
Chris Norman
Sorry to disappoint you…
It is around 10 AM right now in Northeastern Germany, and we have 33 Ā°C where the sun doesn’t shine. Didn’t happen so very often here, but is not unprecedented.
We had last year a centennial summer, preceded and followed by two extremely mild winters with a few cm snow (by the way: both accurately predicted by NOAA).
What I wanted to show in the comment above is that your Indiana is all but cooling.
Even corners like Illinois aren’t, despite terrifying cold waves near to -30 Ā°C in Chicago and near to -40 Ā°C at Mt Carroll.
And what nobody talks about is for example that wherever you look at, November 2018 was in Northern CONUS far colder on average than were December and January!
Fortunately, all of this will be adjudicated by mother nature in the next couple of decades! We will know for sure then.
So true. All the graphs. computer programs, hysteria and media bias will not alter what is going to happen. As I watch the planetary cooling reported since 2016 it has been evident that Mother nature runs the show and is about demonstrate that in style.
Chris Norman
“As I watch the planetary cooling reported since 2016…”
Sure?
As I suspect you a bit to consider surface temperature measurements being either biased or fudged or both, here is a graph comparing UAH’s lower troposphere temperature anomalies for the 53 month periods 1997-2001 and 2015-2019:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y1zmzMt_1gD5jxCOH13UVYvbocYulbNz/view
The comparison is made such that the anomalies for the two periods are displaced with the respective period’s begin, in order to extract the warming having happened inbetween.
{ Btw: this helps in seeing that 2015/2016 was in the UAH record less strong than 1997/98, what perfectly corresponds to the MEI ENSO index (2.5 vs. 3.0) }
What planetary cooling do you exactly mean, Chris Norman?
I only see a recovery from a big El Nino, although not as strong as after 1998.
*
Source: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
See “CO2 Is Innocent” at https://sciencefrauds.blogspot.com for a demo-experiment that gives proof of what I am saying and you can do for a few Dollars even if you have to buy a “stick” lab. thermometer. Any physical scientist over the age of 50 knows the CO2 accusations are false if he studied the Le Chatelier Principle applied to gases. It has been removed from all textbooks since the Hansen fraud showed the academic community a way to rich grants, promotions, speaking engagements by promoting panic and appearing as one who could “Save the planet!” It is all BS and I prove it in “CO2 Is Innocent.”