The Week That Was: 2019-05-11 (May 11, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “…we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have…. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.” – Stephen Schneider, Discover, pp. 45–48, October 1989.
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Honest Science: The full comment by Stephen Schneider in the 1989 interview in Discover magazine, cited above, is:
“On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad-based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So, we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This ‘double ethical bind’ we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.”
In efforts to frighten the public about climate and the environment, the UN bureaucracies at the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its parent organization, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), are losing effectiveness and becoming far less honest. This lack of candor extends to its followers including the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and its 13 affiliated agencies.
The latest UN effort comes from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES):
“…an independent intergovernmental body, established by member States in 2012. The objective of IPBES is to strengthen the science-policy interface for biodiversity and ecosystem services for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, long-term human well-being and sustainable development.”
The leadership of the five groups of experts is under Sir Robert Watson (UK) a long-time foe of carbon dioxide emissions who chaired the IPCC from 1997 to 2002. Under his leadership the IPCC produced the Third Assessment Report (AR3, 2001), which featured Mr. Mann’s hockey-stick, claimed a false scientific consensus, rising sea levels, increased frequency of heat waves, false confidence in the ability of climate models to project / predict, and stronger evidence (highly questionable) that global warming / climate change over the previous fifty years was caused by human activities, primarily use of fossil fuels. It was in AR3 that the term model predictions was changed to projections at the insistence of the late Vincent Gray of New Zealand, a persistent critic.
According to its media releases IPBES is releasing a comprehensive report showing that:
“Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’ Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating’
“Current global response insufficient; ‘Transformative changes’ needed to restore and protect nature; Opposition from vested interests can be overcome for public good
“Most comprehensive assessment of its kind; 1,000,000 species threatened with extinction”
The “Advance Unedited” version of the report shows “hockey-stick” style graphs of extinction of species, but little hard evidence. Instead, it is filled with bureaucratic language and organizational graphs. Interestingly, under direct drivers the report does not include carbon dioxide (CO2) but does state:
“The direct anthropogenic drivers are those that are the result of human decisions, namely, of institutions and governance systems and other indirect drivers. Anthropogenic drivers include habitat conversion, e.g., degradation of land and aquatic habitats, deforestation and afforestation, exploitation of wild populations, climate change, pollution of soil, water and air and species introductions. Some of these drivers, such as pollution, can have negative impacts on nature; others, as in the case of habitat restoration, or the introduction of a natural enemy to combat invasive species, can have positive effects.” (p.37)
Air pollution and climate change have become a euphemism, a rewording, for CO2 emissions.
We now have over 35 years of Landsat satellite imagery showing that with increasing carbon dioxide the planet is greening, and plant life is flourishing. Yet, the UN reports ignore the benefits of CO2.
Recently, the UK had children protesting CO2 emissions under the banner of “Extinction Rebellion,” implying that continued CO2 emissions will cause extinction. These events and the new UN report prompt a perplexing question: which group is more immature? The children of the Extinction Rebellion, who believe adults claiming dangers of CO2. Or, the “experts” at the UN claiming 1,000,000 species are about to go extinct from CO2, despite decades of evidence showing plant life is flourishing from more CO2. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide.
The Greenhouse Effect – A Bit of History: Many authors advocating that small changes in the current level of atmospheric CO2 will cause major changes in temperatures refer to a 1896 work by noted Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius in which he calculated the effect of CO2 on temperatures as if it were the primary driver of global warming (and cooling), sufficient to bring the earth out of the last major ice age. His calculations are rigorous and impressive, but that does not mean his conclusions are correct.
In 1941, Serbian astrophysicist Milutin Milankovitch began developing the mathematical theory that the seasonal and latitudinal variations of solar radiation received by earth determine major warming and cooling periods, the latter becoming ice ages. According to NASA’s Earth Observatory (Mar 24, 2000, not updated):
“Now known as the Milankovitch Theory, it states that as the Earth travels through space around the sun, cyclical variations in three elements of Earth-sun geometry combine to produce variations in the amount of solar energy that reaches Earth:
1. “Variations in the Earth’s orbital eccentricity—the shape of the orbit around the sun.
2. Changes in obliquity—changes in the angle that Earth’s axis makes with the plane of Earth’s orbit.
3. Precession—the change in the direction of the Earth’s axis of rotation, i.e., the axis of rotation behaves like the spin axis of a top that is winding down; hence it traces a circle on the celestial sphere over a period of time.
“Together, the periods of these orbital motions have become known as Milankovitch cycles.”
In 1976, Hays, Imbrie, and Shackleton published a paper, in Science, based on 450,000 years of ocean-floor sediments in the Southern Hemisphere showing that the changes in the climate corresponded with Milankovitch Theory. From this, they concluded that in the earth’s orbital geometry are the fundamental cause of the succession of Quaternary ice ages (the current period beginning about 2.6 million years ago). Using this model, one can estimate that within the next seven thousand years the Northern Hemisphere will begin experiencing extensive glaciation.
There are some issues with this theory. However, the current findings of the IPCC, and its followers, are based on the 1979 Charney Report, which admitted it was based on speculation from climate modelers, not evidence. Physical evidence that CO2 is the major driver of global warming / climate change is yet to be produced.
Unfortunately, many of those who claim that the greenhouse effect is a well understood theory dating back to the work of Svante Arrhenius in 1896, ignore his later work in 1906 in which he backed down from his 1896 calculations that a doubling of CO2 will increase temperatures by 5 to 6 ºC (about 10 ºF) . Fortunately, in 2014 Friends of Science, a group based in Canada, translated the later work from German. The 1906 work is more in-line with forecasts by the IPCC and what the Charney Report speculated.
Arrhenius based his revised work on an 1861 lecture by John Tyndall,
“…Tyndall presented the results of an analysis of the relatively strong absorption of heat radiation by water vapour and carbon dioxide. On the basis of this analysis, he expressed the view that changes in CO2 and water vapour content of the atmosphere explain all climate changes which had been identified by geological research.”
From reading the paper by Arrhenius, it appears he did not grasp the greenhouse effect. It appears that Tyndall grasped the concept of the greenhouse effect, but his experiments produced crude estimates. Thanks to later experiments, satellites, and modern sensors, we can refine these crude estimates of the effect of water vapor and CO2, which will be further discussed in subsequent TWTWs. Unfortunately, it appears that greenhouse gas warming will not be sufficient to prevent another ice age from occurring. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Milankovitch
AIRS: The April 25 TWTW discussed Roy Spencer’s post on NASA’s Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) starting with the Aqua satellite in early 2002.
“The skin temperature is still ‘retrieved’ in partly- (and even mostly-) cloudy conditions from other channels higher up in the atmosphere, and with ‘cloud clearing’ algorithms, but these exotic numerical exercises can never get around the fact that the surface skin temperature can only be observed with satellite infrared measurements when no clouds are present.” [Boldface was italics in the original.]
What was even more interesting to TWTW was the comment by Spencer:
“AIRS has even demonstrated how increasing CO2 in the last 15+ years has reduced the infrared cooling to outer space at the wavelengths impacted by CO2 emission and absorption, the first observational evidence I am aware of that increasing CO2 can alter — however minimally — the global energy budget.”
Spencer has followed these with two additional posts using AIRS. One, using AIRS, Spencer shows that for the US nighttime surface temperatures and lower troposphere temperatures from surface to 2.5 km (8,000 thousand feet) have been warming significantly, but daytime temperatures have not been warming significantly. Two, over the entire 16.6-year record the warming of the troposphere has been slight, as indicated by UAH temperature records using microwaves (which can record temperature trends in spite of clouds).
The first post confirms the assertion that greenhouse gas warming is primarily a nighttime occurrence, slowing nighttime cooling of the earth. It is not a daytime threat. Thus, the claims of the IPCC, and its followers, that increasing CO2 will cause dire heat waves, crop failures, etc. are largely fabrications. The second post indicates that we have nothing to fear from increasing CO2. Without question, continuous monitoring of the atmosphere is important, but there is no evidence that increasing CO2 is causing significant change. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Measurements of El Niño Frequencies: There are several types, “flavors,” of El Niños with different consequences in weather. The primary El Niño type, flavor, is a warming tongue in the sea surface in the eastern Pacific along the equator off Peru. The second major type is a warming in the central Pacific along the equator some 10,000 km (6,000 miles) away.
Researchers have hit on a technique of taking core samples of corals to estimate changing patterns of El Niños. The researchers discovered that for most of the 400-year record both types occurred with approximately the same frequency, but the eastern Pacific type was significantly stronger. However, since about 1900 the central Pacific El Niño is becoming more frequent and stronger than in the past. The cause of El Niños is not established and the 400-year record is too short to assume that the current trend will continue. One could use the data to argue that El Niños brought the globe out of the Little Ice Age. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Changing Weather.
Uncertainty: There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding climate change and its causes. Unfortunately, the over $40 billion that the US government has spent on climate science, according to published government reports, has helped little. Great advances have been made in sensors and instruments, but important ones are largely ignored by government scientists. Greenhouse theory and the contribution of CO2 to warming are not well understood. There are no general theories supported by hard data that withstand hard analysis.
Writing in “Quadrant,” and carried in Climate, Etc. retired Australian atmospheric physicist Garth Paltridge expressed his views. Essentially, climate change has become a religion for those who have no religion. Though not stated by Paltridge, differently, one could argue that those opposing this “new religion” assert that explanations of climate change are unsatisfactory for those who are restlessly seeking knowledge or believe that government power, national or international, should not be extended over critical components of the economy, such as energy, without clear, compelling evidence of need and value. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The seven past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, John Holdren, Gena McCarthy and Jerry Brown are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.
Number of the Week: 0.05ºC in 25 years. A report in “Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters” describing: the main features of the recently published World Ocean Experiment–Argo Global Hydrographic Climatology comparing it with the previous studies compiled in NOAA’s WOA13 [World Ocean Atlas Climatology], both with the same temporal and spatial resolution. The report states:
“The two climatologies characterize mean ocean states that are 25 years apart, and the zonally averaged section of the WAGHC-minus-WOA13 temperature difference clearly shows the ocean warming signal, with a mean temperature increase of 0.05°C for the upper 1500-m layer since 1984”.
0.05°C is finer than the accuracy of even good thermometers. Claiming ocean measurements of temperature of greater accuracy is a computational exercise of “manufactured” precision – the outcome of averaging a huge amount of data, none of which is known with that accuracy.
No doubt, much will be made of this report to claim that the oceans are warming and that the warming is accelerating. Oceans have been warming and cooling for hundreds of millions of years. Assuming the precision stated in the report is accurate, the current 25-year period indicates that, if continued, the oceans will warm by 1ºC (2 ºF) over the next 500 years. Interestingly, the NOAA’s graph of the World Ocean Atlas Climatology has a contour interval of 2ºC, which would require 1000 years. See links under Changing Seas and https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/OC5/woa13fv2/woa13fv2.pl
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Deep solar minimum fast-approaching and cosmic rays continue to rise
By Paul Dorian, Perspecta, Inc. April 29, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Current Solar Cycle Among Weakest On Record. Potentially Cloud-Seeding Cosmic Radiation Near Highest Level Since 1950s
The Sun in April 2019
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse, (German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, May 7, 2019
Algorithms, Shadow Bans Threaten Free Speech, Political Diversity
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 29, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Challenging the Orthodoxy
NASA The: 80% of U.S. Warming has been at Night
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 30, 2019
The Weakness of Tropospheric Warming as Confirmed by AIRS
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, May 1, 2019
Link to paper: Recent global warming as confirmed by AIRS
By J Susskind, et al., Environmental Research Letters, Apr 17, 2019
The Probable Cause of Climate Fluctuations –Svante Arrhenius
A Translation of his 1906 Amended View of “Global Warming”
Translated by Friends of Science, 2014
Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
By J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, and N. J. Shackleton, Science, 1976
Climate science violates the basic precepts of science
By Sanjeev Sabhlok, The Times of India, May 9, 2019
Richard Feynman rightly said, “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”.
GWPF Statement on the Proposed Net Zero 2050 Emissions Target
By Staff Writers, GWPF, May 2, 2019
“The recommendation of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) for a Net Zero emissions target by 2050 is grounded in nothing stronger than irresponsible optimism and arbitrary assumptions about cost and technological feasibility.”
Guilt-tripping Britain to net zero
By Rupert Darwall, CapX, May 7, 2019, [H/t GWPF]
CO2 Data Manipulation
By Tim Ball, Digital Management, April 30, 2019
Adapting to climate change “it’s in our genes” — Another reason to ignore the extinction scare
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 8, 2019
A million species face extinction? Time to burn fossil fuels to save them
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 7, 2019
Climate’s uncertainty principle
By Garth Paltridge, Climate Etc. May 6, 2019
Do NASA’s Latest Figures Confirm Global Warming?
By Anthony Watts, American Thinker, May 9, 2019
Using P-Values To Diagnose “Trends” Is Invalid
By William Briggs, His Blog, May 8, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Toby’s Eyes Have Been Opened
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, May 9, 2019
Link to article: The UN’s extinction warning doesn’t add up
By Toby Young, The Spectator, May 11, 2019
Link to UN Press Release: Media Release: Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating’
By Staff Writers, UN Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), Accessed May 10, 2019
IPCC Clone Predicts Doom
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, May 6, 2019
ENSO Normals: A New U.S. Climate Normals Product Conditioned by ENSO Phase and Intensity and Accounting for Secular Trends
By Anthony Arguez, et al. AMS, May 7, 2019 [H/t Climate Etc.]
[SEPP Comment: NOAA types arguing for faster climate change. Should it be annual, quarterly, monthly, or daily to satisfy their short-term data?]
Indigenous peoples, ‘guardians of Nature’, under siege
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP), May 6, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The claimed polar bear experts do not consider the observations of the ‘guardians of Nature’ to be knowledge.]
Britain’s Red-Green revolution? Corbyn Forces Commons Vote to Declare ‘Climate Emergency’
By Staff Writers Sky News, Via GWPF, Apr 28, 2019
Potty Wadhams And King Want To “Fix” The Climate!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 10, 2019
BBC: “Scientists in Cambridge plan to set up a research centre to develop new ways to repair the Earth’s climate.
“It will investigate radical approaches such as refreezing the Earth’s poles and removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
“The centre is being created because of fears that current approaches will not on their own stop dangerous and irreversible damage to the planet.
“The initiative is the first of its kind in the world and could lead to dramatic reductions in carbon emissions.
“The initiative is co-ordinated by the government’s former chief scientific adviser, Prof Sir David King.”
Satellites to track carbon from every power plant on Earth
By Benjamin Storrow, E&E News, May 9, 2019
[SEPP Comment: for what purpose?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
World Leader’s Ignorance About Climate Change Continues Despite Simple, Obvious Evidence.
By Tim Ball, Digital Management, May 9, 2019
Global Warming Energy Restrictions Threaten U.S. National Security
By James Taylor, WUWT, May 10, 2019
We Only Have Three And A Half Days To Stop Climate Change
If we don’t surrender our rights and hand control of the economy over to the state, the world will pretty much be over by Tuesday morning.
By David Marcus, The Federalist, May 3, 2019
Climate News – May 2019
By Alan Moran, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, May 2, 2019
Biodiversity threat won’t be tackled by alarmist biologist hype and dismantling capitalism
By Matt Ridley, Reaction, May 7, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
“For some reason, environmental activists hate talking about the success stories of conservationists in saving species, recovering their populations and reintroducing them to the wild. They prefer to dwell on the threats. This brings more publicity and donations, but it also spreads a counsel of despair, leaving many ordinary people feeling helpless, rather than engaged. It’s time for an honest debate about what we can do to save wildlife, rather than a Private Fraser cry of ‘we’re all doomed’”.
Polar Bears: Which Narrative to Believe?
By Jim Steele, WUWT, May 1, 2019
“Most importantly, Arctic studies show less sea ice promotes more photosynthesis. After sea ice had recently decreased by 9%, Stanford scientists determined productivity increased by 30%. More photosynthesis provides more food for fish. More fish feed more seals and fatter seals feed more polar bears.”
Germany, Italy, Hungary & Poland Reject Net-zero Climate Target
By Frédéric Simon, Euractiv.com, May 8, 2019
“The governments of France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and Luxembourg have launched an appeal to boost EU climate action ahead of a major summit on the future of Europe taking place in Romania next Thursday (9 May).
“A leaked ‘non-paper’ by the eight countries calls on the European Union to step up the fight against climate change and sign up to a European Commission plan to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions ‘by 2050 at the latest’”.
Change in US Administrations
US Ups Its Game in Catastrophic Grid Protection
By Paul Steidler, Real Clear Energy, Apr 30, 2019
Link to Executive order: Executive Order on Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses
By Staff Writers, The White House, Mar 26, 2019
Perry, asked about environmental justice, talks about electricity prices
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, May 9., 2019
“’Environmental justice is broader than that but obviously encompasses such issues as weatherization, where things are placed, how things are placed, who decides what is placed where—all of those are environmental justice issues,’ he [Rep. Donald McEachin (D-V.A.)] said, and typically are viewed through the lens of race and poverty.
US climate sceptics send shivers through Arctic cooperation
By Sam Kingsley and Pierre-Henry Deshayes
Rovaniemi, Finland (AFP) May 7, 2019
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
NASA declares carbon dioxide is GREENING the Earth… reveals how Green New Death is a DEATH cult that would collapse global ecology
By Mike Adams, Natural News, Apr 26, 2019
Link to key paper: Greening of the Earth and its drivers
By Zaichun Zhu, et al. Nature Climate Change, Apr 25, 2016
Link to NASA Web Site: Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
By Samson Reiny, NASA, Apr 26, 2016
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Despite Growing Protests, EU Leaders Leave Sibiu With No Climate Action
By Dave Keating, Forbes, May 9, 2019
“Some of those students travelled to Sibiu and unfurled a giant banner outside where EU leaders were meeting reading ‘Broken climate, broken future’”.
Germany is Failing
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 7, 2019
Leaked German govt report: emissions target will be missed despite on-target renewables
By Julian Wettengel, Energy Post,.eu, April 29, 2019
Around the World, Buyer’s Remorse Sets in for Costly Clean Power
By David R Baker and Brian Eckhouse, Bloomberg, April 24, 2019
Seeking a Common Ground
Two Developments that Could Prove Significant
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, May 11, 2019
Science, Policy, and Evidence
The Weird Reality of World Climate Policy
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, May 7, 2019
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2 and Temperature on Brassica napus
Juozapaitiene, G., Diksaityte, A., Sujetoviene, G., Aleinikoviene, J. and Juknys, R. 2019. Aboveground and below-ground carbon allocation of summer rape under elevated CO2 and air temperature. Agricultural and Food Science 28: 1-8. May 8, 2019
Improved Growth and Nitrogen Fixation from Elevated CO2 in Two Lentil Cultivars
Parvin, S., Uddin, S., Bourgault, M., Roessner, U., Tausz-Posch, S., Armstrong, R., O’Leary, G., Fitzgerald, G. and Tausz, M. 2018. Water availability moderates N2 fixation benefit from elevated [CO2]: A 2-year free-air CO2 enrichment study on lentil (Lens culinaris MEDIK.) in a water limited agroecosystem. Plant, Cell & Environment 41: 2418-2434. May 6, 2019
A Review of Coral Thermal Tolerance Abilities
Thomas, L., Rose, N.H., Bay, R.A., Lopez, E.H., Morikawa, M.K., Ruiz-Jones, L. and Palumbi, S.R. 2018. Mechanisms of thermal tolerance in reef-building corals across a fine-grained environmental mosaic: Lessons from Ofu, American Samoa. Frontiers in Marine Science 4: Article 434, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2017.00434. May 3, 2019
“The back-reef pools on Ofu are ideal for studying the thermal tolerance of corals in a natural setting. Corals inhabiting such pools experience a wide range of temperature and irradiance values across a tidal cycle, the most variable of which reach temperatures of 34°C or higher and daily thermal fluctuations of up to 6°C. Two pools in particular, a highly variable pool experiencing temperatures that range from 24.5 to 35°C and a moderately variable pool with temperature variations of 25-32°C, have served as ideal settings for researchers to investigate the subject of thermal tolerance; they are adjacent to one another (~500 m apart) and both sustain a diverse assemblage of corals that are ‘nearly identical in species diversity and percent live coral cover.’”
A CO2-induced Enhancement of Wheat Grain Yields on Acidic Soils
Dong, J., Grylls, S., Hunt, J., Armstrong, R., Delhaize, E. and Tang, C. 2019. Elevated CO2 (free-air CO2 enrichment) increases grain yield of aluminum-resistant but not aluminum-sensitive wheat (Triticum aestivum) grown in an acid soil. Annals of Botany 123: 461-468.
Models v. Observations
Scientists Request Revamping Of Climate Models After Finding Arctic 4.6°C WARMER In 1930s Than Today!
Earlier Arctic warmth unexplained: In Franz Josef Land it was several degrees warmer in early 1930s than today
By Staff Writers, Die kalte Sonne, (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), May 10, 2019
New “exascale” supercomputer can run incorrect climate models even faster
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 8, 2019
Measurement Issues — Surface
BIG NEWS – Verified by NOAA – poor weather station siting leads to artificial long term warming
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 3, 2019
Link to paper: Impacts of Small-Scale Urban Encroachment on Air Temperature Observations
By Leeper, Kochendorfer, Henderson, and Paleki, AMS, May 2, 2019
Mosher: “microsite bias matters more than UHI, especially in the first kilometer
Guest post by Steven Mosher, WUWT, May 3, 2019
A New Temperature Reconstruction From Central Asia Shows 432 Years Of No Warming, Recent Cooling
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 2, 2019
How much has urbanisation affected United Kingdom temperatures?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 6, 2019
Albany [Australia] robbed of its coldest ever April day, BOM adjusts temp up 15 degrees C?!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 5, 2019
El Niño has rapidly become stronger and stranger, according to coral records
By Mandy Freund, et al, The Conversation, May 6, 2019
Link to paper: Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events in recent decades relative to past centuries
By Mandy Freud, et al., Nature Geoscience, May 6, 2019
Impossible research produces 400-year El Niño record, revealing startling changes
By Charles the moderator, WUWT, May 7, 2019
Ph.D. student extracts world-first centuries long seasonal record of El Niños from coral cores
[SEPP Comment: Link to paper immediately above.]
What Happened To Joe’s Permanent Drought? [Southwest US]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 10, 2019
Link to paper: 2,500 Years of Hydroclimate Variability in New Mexico, USA
By Oliver, Harley and Maxwell, Geophysical Research Letters, Apr 1, 2019o
How Atmospheric Sounding Transformed Weather Prediction
By Jenny Marder for GSFC News, Greenbelt MD (SPX) ,May 03, 2019
New Study: The Tropical Atlantic Was 7.5°C Warmer Than Now While CO2 Was 220 ppm
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 9, 2019
Comparison of global climatologies confirms warming of the global ocean
By Charles the Moderator, WUWT, May 10, 2019
Link to paper: A new global ocean hydrographic climatology
Continuous observations in the North Atlantic challenges current view about ocean circulation variability
By Kevin Kilty, WUWT, May 11, 2019
Link to project summary: Collaborative Research: Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic—the Irminger and Iceland Basins
By Susan Lozier, et al.
Bramston Reef Corals – The Other Side of the Mud Flat
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 6, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“White corals have no zooxanthellae and are often dead, because they have been exposed to temperatures that are too high. Colourful corals, like thin women, are more nutrient starved and often exist in environments of intense illumination – existing near the limits of what might be considered healthy.
“Such basic facts are not well understood. Instead there is an obsession with saving the Great Barrier Reef from imminent catastrophe while we are either shown pictures of bleached white dead coral, or spectacularly colourful corals from outer reefs in nutrient-starved waters … while thousands of square kilometres of healthy brown coral is ignored.”
Marine Virus Survey Reveals Biodiversity Hot Spots
Ocean samples collected from around the world produced a twelvefold increase in the number of marine viruses known. A portion of the Arctic Ocean has “surprisingly high diversity.”
By Kimberly M. S. Cartier, EOS, May 3, 2019 [H/t Climate Etc.]
New Science Finds Coral Reefs Are [May Slightly Heat] Heating The Planet – Reef Ecosystems A Net Source Of CO2 Emissions
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 6, 2019
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
BBC Sea Ice Howler
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 8, 2019
The language of the proposed Arctic Council statement included: “Scientists and environmental groups warn that the retreat of Arctic sea ice threatens polar bears and marine species, but also contributes to rising sea levels, adding to the risk of coastal flooding.”
[SEPP Comment: Melting of floating sea ice does not increase sea levels and polar bears are not threatened.]
Fewer clouds contribute to more sea ice in Antarctic: research
By Staff Writers, Xinhua, Apr 26, 2019
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Record maize crop expected for Brazil in 2018/2019 season
By Elizabeth Schroeder, Farmers Weekly, Apr 29, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The chief competitor with the US in the world market in maize and soybeans.]
Bumper crop: Centre hikes wheat import tariff to 40 per cent
India’s wheat production is estimated at a record 99.12 million tonnes in 2018-19 crop year, which runs from July to June, about 2 per cent higher than last year’s.
By Staff Writers, Indian Express, Apr 28, 2019
Olive Oil Production in Spain Sets Record
Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing and Food reported that olive oil production in Spain reached 1.77 million tons through March of the 2018/19 campaign, an increase of 43 percent compared with the same period in the previous campaign.
By Rosa Gonzalez-Lamas, Olive Oil Times, May 2, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
The Economist adopts Tesla’s ‘Ludicrous Mode’
Guest essay by David Archibald, WUWT, May 1, 2019
Why This NY Times Maple Syrup Story Tastes Odd
By Eric Felten, Real Clear Investigations, May 7, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate change: England flood planners ‘must prepare for worst’ Say Environment Agency
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 9, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Leave out key facts.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
‘Global Warming’ Not Scary Enough, Alarmists Rebrand ‘Climate Crisis’
By Thomas Williams, Breitbart, May 1, 2019 [H/t William Readdy]
“’A successful candidate’s [term’s] aim is to broaden the conversation around an issue with words that spark interest on both ends of the political spectrum… while avoiding overstating the problem,’ it [the study] declared.”
[SEPP Comment: The Edsel is not selling. Let’s do the Edsel II!]
More starving polar bear nonsense from National Geographic & a better video to watch
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, May 6, 2019
Eco Scares Crowd Search
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 9, 2019
A crowd research request for scares
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, May 6, 2019
Quote of the Week: Greta Thunberg claims to be able to “see” carbon dioxide in the air
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 2, 2019
[SEPP Comments: Unfortunately, this child has become a symbol of greenhouse gas warming. Question the graph produced by NASA, Climate Science Investigations: The Greenhouse Effect.]
Stop lying to children about dying polar bears as a way to achieve action on climate change
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, May 4, 2019
Expanding the Orthodoxy
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 5, 2019
“Please note, there are no safe alternatives to the chemicals that will be banned.”
[SEPP Comment: The US unemployment rate is below 4%, considered impossible by many noted economists a few years ago. Yet, the justification for passing the absurdly expensive treaty is that it may create jobs?]
UN Targets the Sand People
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, May 8, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas uses a great deal of sand, so sand is a likely target for the UN and other green groups.]
Ottawa takes first step with climate emergency declaration, bold action must follow
By Brent Patterson, Rabble.ca, Apr 29, 2019
“The City of Ottawa should commit to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, a key demand made by Extinction Rebellion.
“The City of Ottawa should commit (as the City of Vancouver is considering) to a target of two-thirds of trips in the city to be taken by walking, cycling, and public transit by 2030.
[SEPP Comment: In January, the average temperature for Ottawa ranges from a low of 6 degrees F to a high of 22.]
Questioning European Green
Decarbonisation and the Command Economy,
By Professor Michael Kelly, University of Cambridge, Via GWPF, May 8, 2019
100% Renewables At 764 Euros Per Household Per MONTH… Germany’s 4.6 TRILLION Euro Green Energies Flop
The 4.6 trillion-euro German green energies flop
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt and Frank Bosse, (German text translated/edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, May 8, 2019
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Beware the Message
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 30, 2019
Can Renewable Portfolio Standards make RE Work?
By Geo, Energy Matters, May 9, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Beware of false analogies.]
“Green” Energy Policies Hurt the Environment, Another Case Study
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, April 28, 2019
“I don’t think most environmentalists care at all about the consequences of the policies they advocate. Modern environmentalism is tribal virtue-signaling, nothing more. And the rest of us are stuck with the bill.”
The Political Games Continue
Democrats revive Paris Agreement, Green Climate Fund
By Nick Sobczyk, E&E News, May 9, 2019
Europe’s Nationalists Target Climate Action
Criticizing climate policies is a way for far-right parties to stir emotions against elites ahead of this month’s European Parliament elections.
By Thomas K. Grose, US News, May 8, 2019
What will the carbon tax cost? Bill Shorten says only a lying charlatan would ask. [Australia]
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 11, 2019
Michael Bloomberg Is Paying a Climate Prosecutor $125,000 to Work “Pro Bono” for Maryland’s AG
By Tim Pearce, Daily Caller, May 7, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The Carbon Trading Racket Puts Wood Back on the Burner
By Robert Gottliebsen, The Australian, Via GWPF, May 9, 2019
“Once rackets get into any market, they multiply.”
The Trouble With Carbon Taxes: Lessons For Asian Policymakers
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, May 7, 2019
“Some Asian planners have reacted against the ‘carbon imperialism’ of the West in a call for the continued importance of fossil fuels for economic development and poverty alleviation. But it is the wider voter reaction in the developed countries against costly climate change policies, fought out in electoral contests at local, provincial and national levels, that provide Asian leaders valuable lessons on the trouble with carbon taxes.”
The Time Has Come for a Global Carbon Emissions Tax
By Mats Persson, Project Syndicate, May 1, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Who gets the loot – the UN?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Electric Car Subsidies Aren’t All They’re Cracked Up to Be
By Steve Pociask, Real Clear Energy, April 19, 2019
“On top of the $7,500 available through the EV tax credit, electric cars owners don’t pay gas taxes to help support the roads they use, shifting more of the burden onto ordinary drivers and contributing to a massive funding deficit for our surface infrastructure.”
Researchers Say Renewable Energy Mandates Cause Large Electricity Price Increases
By Tim Benson, Heartland Institute, Via WUWT, May 2, 2019
Link to WORKING paper: Do Renewable Portfolio Standards Deliver?
By Greenstone and Nath, Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, April 2019
[SEPP Comment: The calculations of “A 1-4 Percent [Increase] In Renewable Generation Raises Electricity Prices By 11-17 Percent” are too precise.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
U.K. Adviser Set to Recommend Zero Emissions Target by 2050
By Jess Shankleman, Bloomberg, Apr 30, 2019
No Carbon Britain
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2019
Link to report: Net Zero – The UKs contribution to stopping global warming
By Staff Writers, Committee on Climate Change, May 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Exposing the costs of the “great” plan.]
UK declares Climate Chastity Vow (it’s a Groupthink Emergency)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 3, 2019
DOMINIC LAWSON: How the Kremlin must be howling with laughter now green zealots have sabotaged our fracking bonanza
By Dominic Lawson, Daily Mail, UK, Apr 29, 2019
Government has ‘double standards’ for allowing drilling in Cornwall
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 9, 2019
“The Government has been accused of ‘blatant double standards’ for allowing [unregulated geothermal] drilling in Cornwall that is able to cause stronger tremors than fracking.”
Sweden’s Lack of Electricity Capacity Is Threatening Growth
A shift toward renewables is overwhelming the nation’s grid, leaving a potential Olympic Games in 2026 relying on reserve generators.
By Jesper Starn, Bloomberg, May 3, 2019 [H/t ICECAP]
Relevancy of Crisis in the Mideast
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 10, 2019
Energy Issues – Australia
Climate Council pleads “censorship” and calls billions of dollars “a lack of action”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 1, 2019
More renewables, more record prices
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 10-, 2019
Link to report: Quarterly Energy Dynamics, Q1, 2019
By AEMO, Australian Energy Market Operator, 2019
Energy Issues — US
ERCOT Warns of Summer Emergency Conditions as Demand Continues to Soar
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, May 9, 2019
“ERCOT has been preparing for tight operating reserves owing to a spate of recent plant retirements—including about 4 GW of major coal baseload generation—and delays in some planned resources.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
How Climate Change Buried a Desert 20,000 Feet Beneath the Gulf of Mexico Seafloor
By David Middleton, WUWT, May 8, 2019
Saudi Aramco Sees Shale Gas as Kingdom’s Next Energy Bonanza
By Anthony Dipaola and Verity Ratcliffe, Bloomberg, Apr 29, 2019
The next ‘Ferrari of shale’ may be hiding in Australia’s outback
By Staff Writers, Bloomberg, Via The Japan Times, May 3, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Trump administration moves forward with final rule to allow new California drilling
By Miranda Green, The Hill, May 9, 2019
We must Ignore the Anti-fracking Nimbies
By Roger Boyes, The Times, Via GWPF, May 1, 2019
Return of King Coal?
Why Is China Placing A Global Bet On Coal
By Steve Inskeep, and Ashley Westerman, NPR, Apr 29, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Three Mile Island nuclear plant to close by September 30
By Staff Writers, AFP, May 9, 2019
“No one died at Three Mile Island and no one was seriously injured but the accident sparked nationwide concern about the safety of nuclear power and put the brakes on construction of new reactors.”
Opposing Yucca Mountain becomes Democratic litmus test
By Timothy Cama, E&E News reporter, May 8, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Campaigning for no reliable source of electricity or energy is the litmus test?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The Solar Energy Racket
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, May 5, 2019
The Reason Renewables Can’t Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To
By Michael Shellenberger, Forbes, May 6, 2019
World Cools on Renewable Energy
By Staff Writers, The Economic Times, Via GWPF, May 6, 2019
EU28 Weather Dependent Renewables in 2017 and indicative costs
By Ed Hoskins, His Blog, Accessed May 8, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: In the EU, the growth of solar and wind power installations is diminishing rapidly. These systems are dependent on subsidies, not economics.]
Nation’s first project was good for tourism — study
By David Iaconangelo, E&E News reporter, May 8, 2019
Link to paper: Sustainability and Tourism: the Effect of the United State’ First Offshore Wind Farm on the vacation Rental Market
By Carr-Harris and Lang, Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, Univ of Rhode Island, Apr 22, 2019
[SEPP Comment: How sustainable is it?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Batteries cannot make renewables reliable
By David Wojick, CFact, Apr 26, 2019
Link to study: U.S. Battery Storage Market Trends
By Staff Writers, EIA, May 21, 2018
Blame Game Over Green Cars Subsidy Cuts
By Staff Writers, The Times, Via GWPF May 9, 2019
California moves to ban brain-damaging pesticide as EPA resists court action
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, May 8, 2019
[SEPP Comment: No link to study or a summary of studies.]
When will green zealots figure out that Britain cannot fight climate change alone?
By Nick Timothy, Telegraph, UK, Via GWPF, May 9, 2019
Other Scientific News
Precise temperature measurements with invisible light
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), May 10, 2019
Link to research paper: Improvements in the design of thermal-infrared radiation thermometers and sensors
By Howard W. Yoon, Vladimir Khromchenko, and George P. Eppeldauer, Optics Express (the Optical Society), May 2, 2019
Are Medical Journals No-Spin Zones? Not As Often As We Might Want
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, May 6, 2019
“’… industry-funded research had a lower proportion of spin than nonprofit funded research.’ (27% of studies funded solely by “for profit,” and 40% for public funding).”
NASA chief calls for global effort to study asteroid threat
By Paul Brinkmann, UPI, Apr 29, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Study a real threat?]
Rein in the four horsemen of irreproducibility
Dorothy Bishop describes how threats to reproducibility, recognized but unaddressed for decades, might finally be brought under control.
By Dorothy Bishop, Nature, Apr 24, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Before You Vote Green, Please Learn Some History
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, May 1, 2019
Fluctuating oxygen caused evolutionary surges during Cambrian period
By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI) May 6, 2019
[SEPP Comment: See what those blue-green bacteria and their descendants did! Promoted growth of animals that eat them.]
Notre Dame’s melted roof leaves astronomical lead levels
By Staff Writers, AP, May 9, 2019
[SEPP Comment: How many of the original builders died from lead exposure?]
The freedom to save your life
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, May 8, 2019
“Why do people oppose harm reduction technologies?”
The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894
By Ben Johnson, Historic UK, No date [H/t James Rust]
“On average a horse will produce between 15 and 35 pounds of manure per day, so you can imagine the sheer scale of the problem.”
“Each horse also produced around 2 pints of urine per day and to make things worse, the average life expectancy for a working horse was only around 3 years.”
[SEPP Comment: More like 20 imperial pints, or 3 US gallons, or 11 liters.]
Two-thirds of the world’s longest rivers no longer run free
By Elizabeth Pennisi, Science, May 8, 2019
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
California restaurants may add climate change surcharge: ‘We as chefs want to do the right thing’
By Alexandra Deabler, Fox News, April 25, 2019
In Silicon Valley, the Quest to Make Gasoline Out of Thin Air
This startup wants to pull carbon out of the atmosphere to help stop climate change—and maybe one day turn a huge profit in the process
By Joshua Brustein, Bloomberg, Apr 30, 2019
Scientists turn back evolutionary clock to develop high-CO2-tolerant microalgae
By Staff Writers, Beijing, China (SPX), Mar 27, 2019
Link to paper: Knockdown of carbonate anhydrase elevates Nannochloropsis productivity at high CO2 level
By LiWei, et al., Metabolic Engineering, July 2019
[SEPP Comment: For what purpose?]
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, May 6, 2019
“Smog-related deaths from climate change are projected to increase by about 4.5 percent from the 1990s to the 2050s, according to studies at Columbia and Johns Hopkins universities.
‘A scientist at Yale University, Michelle Bell, looked at the 50 largest cities in eastern United States and found that the health-alert days would go up by 68 percent over the next decades.’ SFGate, 17/4/07”
Agreement or oblivion!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, May 5, 2019
“Delegates at the U.N. climate conference struggled to agree Tuesday on whether they will call on rich nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions by specific amounts, and the U.N. chief warned that the human race faces oblivion if it fails to confront global warming. ‘We are at a crossroad,’ he added. ‘One path leads to a comprehensive climate change agreement, the other to oblivion. The choice is clear.’ The Washington Post, 11 Dec 2007”