Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to meteorologist and green activist Eric Holthaus, any minute now we’ll have the affordable magic batteries we need to make electric cars useful and renewable power reliable.
Batteries are key to clean energy — and they just got much cheaper
Clean energy future might be closer than we previously thoughtERIC HOLTHAUS
APRIL 10, 2019 8:00AM (UTC)…
In a little less than a year, the cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen by 35 percent, according to a new Bloomberg New Energy Finance report. Cheaper batteries mean we can store more solar and wind power even when the sun isn’t shining or wind isn’t blowing. This is a major boost to renewables, helping them compete with fossil fuel-generated power, even without subsidies in some places, according to the report. Massive solar-plus-storage projects are already being built in places like Florida and California to replace natural gas, and many more are on the way.
…
Electric vehicles will become cheaper to own and operate than gas ones. In places like California, Texas, and Germany, electricity prices have occasionally dropped below zero — a sign that the grid wasn’t yet ready to handle the glut of renewable energy produced there. Now, more of that cheap power will be stored and passed on to consumers. This could be the moment when renewable energy starts to shut down fossil fuel for good.
Read more: https://www.salon.com/2019/04/10/batteries-are-key-to-clean-energy-and-they-just-got-much-cheaper_partner/
I think this is wonderful news.
If Eric Holthaus is right, there is no longer any need whatsoever for government intervention in energy markets. Adam Smith’s invisible hand will ensure renewables prevail by virtue of their superior value, well ahead of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s 12 year deadline to save the world from climate change.
All we need is for power engineers and scientists to stop dragging their feet, and get on with building the magic batteries.
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funny, none of the battery companies stocks that i purchased seem to agree.
+10
With these wonderful batteries, do we still need any bird chopping windmills or any bird incinerating solar plants? (He skipped it neatly).
Don’t you know those bird choppers and bird friers will be charging those wonderful batteries “when the sun isn’t shining or wind isn’t blowing”. Which is a pretty wonderful trick indeed. 😉
I asked basically the same question of liberals back in the days when oil was being projected at $200 per barrel. That question was/is: If you really believe that, then where are the energy or alternative energy stock holdings at the top of your portfolio? Of course the answer is a sheepish look because they are only playing juvenile debate games in the first place with no intention of betting real money of their own.
The same question / test also works during all other current event headlines of resource scarcity. Where is it in your own portfolio and why does it not dominate any portfolio when the premise is that no one is ever going to find anymore of the stuff, or substitute, or use technology to change the demand and supply profiles.
What IS Holthaus smoking? It must be really, really good.
Seriously, does he ever go outside a building he inhabits?
What IS Holthaus smoking? It must be really, really good.
and really, really illegal (at least at the Fed level). 😉
Isn’t is amazing how folk who “grew up” with Moore’s “law” think it
will continue “forever” and “everything else is the same”?
I think it is funny how folks who grew up with Moore’s law think’s it applies to every change in every product. If that were the case, our toilet paper would be mobile and no hands would be needed. Then, in a few years from now, it would transparent and so effective, only one square would be needed.
Didn’t Sheryl Crow recommend using just one sheet? To save the planet and all that.
Using the three sea shells will eventually be the norm.
But, the materials to build those ‘Magic Batteries” is certainly NON RENEWABLE and most likely not Sustainably Producible
Too much Pot.
Waaay too much Pot…
“Happiness is a warm fast breeder”-old Hanford are T-shirt..
I tend to prefer a little Warm Fast Breeding myself…
“More Nukes, Less Kooks”
Old Puget Sound Naval Shipyard T shirt.
“All we need is for power engineers and scientists to stop dragging their feet, and get on with building the magic batteries.”
Well Why doesn’t Eric Holthaus get off his butt and just do it?
Honestly, I don’t think Holthaus could find his way out of a paper bag.
With the instructions inside!
Too bad for all those subsidies that came before the price drop. At least it’s not too late to learn that lesson.
‘Cheaper batteries’
Cheaper than what?
‘mean we can store more solar and wind power even when the sun isn’t shining or wind isn’t blowing.’
The idea is to store solar and wind power when the sun IS shining or the wind IS blowing.
What a maroon.
Cheaper than before doesn’t mean better than before. Lithium ion batteries are like methane digesters: a sound idea chemically, and OK if you nurse them continuously and keep everything in side without well-constrained limits. Outside those limits, they get sick and die, sometimes by explosion.
Grid storage capacity is better achieved by using large grid storage devices, not thousands or millions of tiny ones.
Just ask Panasonic about cheaper batteries. They’re strategically backing out of their partnership with Tesla at the so-called Gigafactory because the costs are too high. Panasonic is one of the biggest battery technology companies with years of experience. If they can’t do it then it is truly magical thinking to assume it is “just around the corner”.
I suspect that some of the reluctance on the part of Panasonic relates directly to the failing fortunes of Tesla. No point in building batteries if there are no vehicles to put them in.
I’m also a bit astounded at the push by the major manufacturers to dive headlong into battery powered vehicles. If anything Tesla has shown a dedicated but small group of owners. I suspect we are headed to a market full of product and a lack of customers. Time will tell but my money is staying in my pocket and in my gas tank.
Funny, I just purchased some batteries for a some drone that only last 31 minutes and they cost $129.95 each, last years models are 20ma (think small watch battery) less but only cost $50 each so how has the ‘cost’ gone down?
They drive down the cost of the batteries by reducing the number of expensive materials used to manufacture them like precious metals.
This is turn makes it less economically attractive to recycle them.
Making the batteries cheaper and creates a bigger toxic waste disposal problem.
But the ecoloons see only rainbows and unicorns.
Imagine how they’ll react when their grid-scale LI batteries spontaneously ignite …
yeah I admit to waiting for that to happen with some amazing force and following disaster/bushfires etc downunder
Wasn’t there a news story today that Panasonic was backing out of deal with Tesla to build a new battery facility in China? It seem if there was an anticipated increase in demand by two the big battery manufactures they would be moving forward with the project.
Cheaper batteries mean we can store more solar and wind power even when the sun isn’t shining or wind isn’t blowing.
LMAO. That’s entirely the wrong time to be trying to store solar and wind power, as there is no power to store (or do anything else with) when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. The time to be storing that power is when the sun *is* shining and the wind *is* blowing.
This is a major boost to renewables, helping them compete with fossil fuel-generated power, even without subsidies
Excellent, so we can start scrapping the subsidies. Quick someone tell the government.
Electric vehicles will become cheaper to own and operate than gas ones
Cost to own and operate is only one factor.
Will they have the range or towing capacity? I don’t care how cheap it is to own and operate if I can only drive 5 miles before needing a charge (yes I know EV can go more than 5 miles between charges, the number is only for illustrative purposes) or if I routine use my vehicle for towing loads too heavy for an EV to handle.
Will they be able to fully charge up as quickly as an ICE tank can be filled? If I live in an 5th floor Apartment (and thus have no easy access to a home outlet) and have to rely on charging stations, it does me no good if I have to waste a hour or more of my time waiting at the charging station for my car to charge.
And those are just two factors that would cause someone to prefer a “more expensive” but more convenient ICE vehicle to a “less expensive” but also less convenient EV. Only when EVs are fully comparable to ICE will they be able to replace ICE.
This test proves EV’s are vastly superior to fossil fueled cars.
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a15112705/2013-tesla-model-s-vs-1915-ford-model-t-race-of-the-centuries-feature/
LOL. Well played.
However, the fact of the matter is ICE won the race with EV over a century ago. Electric cars actually pre-date the Internal Combustion Engine variety, but the market place choose the later for many of the same reasons that EVs remain a niche product that only has as much market share as it currently enjoys due to being propped up with government incentives.
..Ummmm, you forgot the “sarc” tag…..
You forgot the /sarc tag. The test proves that the Tesla isn’t even worthy of being an early twentieth century replacement.
I missed that article! Thank you! That is great!
And disappointing. The $105K Tesla beat out a 104 year-old car – barely. Due to multiple break downs.
That’s so sad!
Here is the underlying link:
https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-powers-latest-plunge-costs-threatens-coal-gas/
“BloombergNEF (BNEF), Bloomberg’s primary research service, covers clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials and commodities.”
To me that says they are a financial propaganda and sales organization for “greeen energy”.
As the fat lady said in “when Harry met Sally” I’ll have what he’s having, it must be pretty powerful stuff…
On what, exactly?!
As far we can determine, that is the price for expired batteries or a surprise sale at some outlet for same.
HP certainly hasn’t sent me any emails about lower priced computer batteries. Nor have the tool companies posted new prices for lithium-ion tool batteries.
“Technology and demography cannot be stopped.”
Anonymous Heins
It remains to be seen what the train wreck will look like with the EV demand swarm for batteries occurring at the same time power generation with batteries takes off. Here are the scenarios: 1) Either lithium supply increases smoothly to meet demand, or 2) EV sales do match the plans and sales fall back and harms battery suppliers, or 3) the power generation market runs ahead of EVs with better ROI from utility scale solar and pressures EV battery prices. Lithium supply additions can respond to all of these scenarios in the long run but its the cyclical swings in the short and medium run that causes financial train wrecks. Be careful out there.
Lithium supply is not the big problem, cobalt is.
If you want a few hundred GWatts of base load battery backup, the lithium supply and lithium prices will be a really big problem…and cobalt supply will be an intractable problem.
Australia’s soon to be Prime Minister Bill Shorten who has declared he wants 50% of all cars sold to be electric was asked on a radio show how long it takes to charge an EV.
8-10 minutes!
Come on, that should get you out of the driveway and half a mile down the road, but you will have to get it towed back/
What the author fails to consider is the fact that 3 gallons of fuel oil equals the KWH output of one Tesla battery. It is pretty easy to store one million gallons of fuel oil as a backup source. The number of batteries needed to store even the smallest part of the US electrical output is beyond practical. Add to that maximum battery life is about 10 years and one can see how impractical Lion battery storage is.
As a matter of fact sodium-sulfur batteries are much more promising for utility-scale storage, since they are much cheaper and have a longer life than li-ion. However the high operating temperature and weight makes them unsuitable for non-stationary use.
don’t those LION batteries tend to catch on fire ? ALOT ??? just imagine a football field sized building full of them just burning gloriously for days on end …
Well, not a lot really, but occasionally they do, and they are well-nigh impossible to put out once they have started to burn (“thermal runaway”).
However a lot of fires are started by physical damage to a cell, so a stationary battery is less likely to burn.
“This could be the moment when renewable energy starts to shut down fossil fuel for good.” Yes, just like 2008 was “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal”, because, Obama. This could also be the moment that mankind finally realizes that he needs to protect himself from an attack by space aliens. This might even be the moment that Greenie Believers start to see the light and realize they’ve been 100% wrong. For moments like these, there’s Coffee Mate, or was that Minties. I forget.
You are thinking of the 1980s Minties ad. (I had to look that up as I had no idea what you were going on about, we don’t have minties here in the US of A,).
Correct, apparently it wasn’t just the 1980s, the catchphrase dates back to the 1920s, it’s just the first thing I found was the 1980s ad.
Battery cost isn’t the only problem. Volume, charge time, and weight are at least as significant.
However, progress will be made and at some time battery cost, charge time, weight and volume might make them competitive. But I think we are more than five years away. Five years is the production horizon for technologies that are already well known and in use in niche markets, not for technologies that aren’t even known yet.
I think there needs to be an increase of energy density of at least one order of magnitude, and a lifespan increase equal to that before battery technology becomes viable in support of intermittent generation by devices which themselves need to be more efficient at converting their low-density energy sources to electricity, in order to attain a successful market share and truly compete with legacy power production methods.
Shhhh….
🤐
The climate clowns are creating their sciencey myth.
Don’t disturb them with rational thought and critical thinking.
As you say, the energy density needs to increase. Otherwise, more batteries are required to store more energy so the overall price remains the same, offsetting the price reduction.
Plug-in cars will appeal to the city dwellers more than the country folk. But those that live in older cities with no garage and no driveway and no place to put one, those people who have to park their cars on the streets, they will find that the extension cord across the sidewalk will not make many friends.
The cords will need to be replaced on a daily basis as the winos will steal them to sell the copper for scrap and use the proceeds to buy Mogen David 20/20.
There are some city dwellers, many of whom live under underpasses, that are looking forward to the EV revolution.
Depending on your perspective and taste in wine, it’s a win-win situation.
And still, no one will tell us where all the electricity to charge these batteries will be generated.