The Week That Was: 2019-01-19 (January 19, 2019)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
The Weather Engine: Last week’s TWTW discussed the two primary energy flows from the surface through the atmosphere into space as speculated in the influential 1979 Charney report: 1) carbon dioxide (CO2) absorbing and re-radiating (interfering with) some of the outbound long-wave radiation from the surface to space and 2) increased water vapor absorbing and re-radiating (interfering with) even more outbound long-wave radiation. According to the Charney Report, the increased water vapor is more significant than the CO2 in causing a warming of the planet.
Further, TWTW discussed the 1997 model of the earth’s “Annual Global Mean Energy Budget” as presented by Kiehl and Trenberth paper published by the American Meteorological Society. In their graph, Figure 7, one can see the component allocated to outgoing longwave radiation and the component allocated to increasing water vapor, evapotranspiration and latent heat. Other publications disagree with the specific numbers but accept the concept.
According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and their followers, there is a water vapor component of release of latent heat in the upper troposphere. This is the so called “hot spot,” which is assumed to be located over the tropics and strongest at a pressure between 300 to 200 millibars (mb) (roughly 9 to 11 km, 30,000 to 36,000 feet above the tropics). Over 50% of the atmosphere is below 6 km.
This “hot spot” has not been found and is not increasing as it should if the water vapor component of “CO2- caused global warming” is as strong as claimed in the Charney Report and repeated by the IPCC and others for 40 years. The recent McKitrick and Christy paper demonstrated that 60 years of weather balloon data have shown no such warming is taking place. Many other publications have likewise not found it
SEPP Chairman emeritus Fred Singer was a co-author of the 2007 Douglas, et al. paper, the first publication showing that the hot spot cannot be found. The paper is described in the 2008 Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC 2008). Fred Singer told Haapala that last week’s TWTW did not adequately discusses the importance of the absence of the hot spot; it is further discussed below. [The interference with outbound thermal radiation by greenhouse gases will be discussed more fully in a future TWTW.]
A change in temperature requires thermal energy, sensible heat. A second requirement of thermal energy is a change in state (or phase change), which occurs when liquid ocean water evaporates into water vapor. This type of thermal energy is named Latent Heat. Ice melting in a water glass is another example of a phase change: one that releases energy. Upon evaporation, the temperature remains the same, but the water vapor contains considerably more energy.
Sunlight creates thermal chaotic motion of the atmosphere, which causes air with water vapor entrained to rise up. This convection process drives the winds and turbulence of the atmosphere. At the much cooler temperatures of altitudes like 10 km, water vapor condenses and becomes liquid then ice. The conversion (phase change) from a gas back to a liquid (or solid) releases the latent heat into the atmosphere, slightly warming the nitrogen and oxygen. From high altitude, some heat is radiated into space, and part remains in the atmosphere. The entire process can be called a heat engine, or weather engine. When the Charney Report was written, the process was understood. This issue in question was: will a CO2-caused warming increase the intensity of this process, the weather engine?
Forty years of comprehensive atmospheric temperature trends, the last twenty years with no statistically significant warming, and 60 years of balloon observations show that the global atmosphere is not warming in a way indicating that the process is intensifying. The weather engine is not becoming more extreme. Thus, projections / forecasts / predictions from climate models or other means that CO2 warming is causing more extreme weather events are not supported by the hard evidence of temperature trends in the atmosphere.
If there is any greenhouse gas effect that is significant at this time, it is the warming of the Arctic, not the Antarctic that is both warming and cooling. The Daily Mean Temperature graphs of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), from 1958 to current, north of the 80th northern parallel, show that temperatures are rising in the cold months, not the summer. In the cold months, the Arctic is extremely dry, thus the warming may be from an increase in water vapor from El Niños, the causes of which are not understood.
Please note that the above discussion does not include transport of heat from the tropics to the polar regions both by the oceans and the atmosphere. As Richard Lindzen has discussed, any greenhouse gas warming of the polar regions is likely to be beneficial, because it lessens the temperature extremes (temperature gradient) between the tropics and the polar regions, thus reducing the driving forces of winds and severe storms. As climate change pioneer H.H. Lamb discussed in his book, “Climate, History and the Modern World,” the fiercest storms to hit Western Europe occurred during the Little Ice Age, a cold period. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC, Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy and http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
AMS Report: The atmospheric data show there is little increase in temperature trends indicating, as discussed above, that the weather engine shows no increasing intensity. Thus, those attuned to atmospheric temperatures should realize that there is little hard, consistent evidence showing weather is becoming worse. Each day, meteorologists release weather balloons to collect data to update their weather models. This is called reanalysis data and it is based on observations, not the results of models. Even so, weather models cannot be relied upon to predict severe weather events 2 weeks out.
Yet the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has issued a stunning, highly questionable report on anecdotal evidence, evidence collected in a casual or informal manner, rather than hard evidence collected in a systematic manner: “Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective.” The cover letter states:
“HEATWAVES, DROUGHTS AND FLOODS AMONG RECENT WEATHER EXTREMES LINKED TO CLIMATE CHANGE
New Studies Reveal Clear Ties between Today’s Extremes and Human Causes
“DECEMBER 10, 2018 – Washington DC – The U.S. Northern Plains and East Africa droughts of 2017, floods in South America, China and Bangladesh, and heatwaves in China and the Mediterranean were all made more likely by human-caused climate change, according to new research published today in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).
“The seventh edition of the report, Explaining Extreme Events in 2017 from a Climate Perspective, also included analyses of ocean heat events, including intense marine heatwaves in the Tasman Sea off of Australia in 2017 and 2018 that were “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change. Also included are analyses of Australian fires and Uruguay flooding.
“This is the second year that scientists have identified extreme weather events that they said could not have happened without warming of the climate through human-induced climate change.
“’These attribution studies are telling us that a warming Earth is continuing to send us new and more extreme weather events every year.’ said Jeff Rosenfeld, Editor in Chief of BAMS. ‘The message of this science is that our civilization is increasingly out of sync with our changing climate.’”
Droughts in the Great Plains? “Climate change made the 2017 Northern Great Plains drought 1.5 times more likely by shifting the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration of soil moisture.” What would the AMS have said during the “dust bowl” years of the 1930s? Floods in Bangladesh and southeastern China? Surely some members of the AMS must realize that they have occurred before.
Apparently, the leaders of the AMS are becoming more focused on climate models than on observations, losing the ability to recognize limits in our understanding of weather. See links Lowering Standards and https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/atmospheric-reanalysis-overview-comparison-tables
Economists on the March: Not to be outdone in spreading alarm, the World Economic Forum issued “The Global Risks Report: 2019.” The two risks with the highest impact and highest likelihood are: 1) Extreme weather events and 2) Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation. These have greater likelihood and impact than natural disasters.
Amazingly, in terms of impact, weather events and failure of climate-change mitigation have only a slightly lower impact than weapons of mass destruction. Weapons of mass destruction are rated as having a low likelihood of risk.
A poor term, according to the UN such weapons include chemical and biological weapons as well as nuclear weapons. In terms of impact, failure of climate change mitigation and adaption have an impact similar to use of nuclear weapons?
Not to miss out, a group of US economists and former Government officials signed a letter urging a carbon tax to “combat climate change.” The tax will increase annually until the undefined “goals” are met. They claim a carbon tax is more efficient than regulation, which may be true, but it is no reason for implementation. They assert: “To maximize the fairness and political viability of a rising carbon tax, all the revenue should be returned directly to U.S. citizens through equal lump-sum rebates.” Anyone who has studied the US tax code would recognize the absurdity of this claim.
Upon reading it, Haapala posted the following statement in the comments section following the article:
“The evidence that CO2 is the primary cause of global warming / climate change is as solid as the evidence Paul Samuelson had in claiming the economy of the Soviet Union is comparable to the economy of the US.”
For the benefit of TWTW readers not versed in US economics, Samuelson was the first US Nobel laureate in “Economic Sciences” (1970) because he: “has done more than any other contemporary economist to raise the level of scientific analysis in economic theory.” In the 60s, 70s, and early 80s, Samuelson created a tremendous issue in the field because he claimed that since the Soviet military was comparable to the US, its economy must be comparable. The works of competent American economists contradicting Samuelson, who could read and write Russian, were often ignored and denied professional advancement.
Wall Street Journal journalist Holman Jenkins has comments on the proposal. See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy and Articles # 1 and #2.
Ocean Heat Content: The globe’s atmosphere is not warming as projected / forecasted / predicted, so the journal “Advances in Atmospheric Sciences” published a paper on the ocean heat content: “2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming.” How a warming that should be taking place in the atmosphere occurs in the oceans without first occurring in the atmosphere is not discussed.
Independently, Roy Spencer and Judith Curry thoroughly addressed issues with the paper. Spencer did so in two posts and raised many questions. Curry used one post to address the paper and similar papers.
One of the difficult issues is that the paper calculates how much the oceans have warmed over the 40-year period 1971 to 2010, a period used in the last IPCC Assessment Report (AR-5, 2013). Reports assert the oceans have warmed 40% more than previously thought. Spencer found the justifications used for the claim and calculated 11%, but Spencer recognizes that the uncertainty in the calculations is major. Among other issues is that they used 33 models to calculate a model average. How good are the models? No one knows.
The practice of assembling multiple models, developed in various way, using different parameters, then averaging them creates unknown errors. One cannot assume that the errors will cancel out, nor can one assume the errors are randomly distributed, there may be a systematic bias in the models. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
Antarctic Warming and Cooling: The threat of accelerating sea level rise is often based on claims that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will collapse (melt over several thousand years). An examination of the 40-year map of atmospheric temperature change indicates that if it does, it will not be from greenhouse gas warming.
The satellite data shows that there is some warming from about 0 degrees to 90 degrees east longitude. Elsewhere there is cooling, even over the Antarctic Peninsula, where surface warming is reported from the many observatories there. Further, the geothermal hot areas in West Antarctica may be changing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. These are issues in need of observing rather than jumping to conclusions about CO2. Stopping CO2 emissions will not stop geothermal activity. See links under Changing Climate and Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.
Number of the Week: Advancing to # 3? According to reports, the American Petroleum Institute is estimating that in 2019 the US will become the third largest exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). According to the EIA, the largest LNG exporters from 2013 to 2017 were (in order): Qatar, Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Indonesia Algeria, US.
In the late 1970s many in Washington were convinced the US was about to run out of natural gas. Their belief was supported by then “state of the art” numerical models run on computers. In 1978, Congress passed, and President Carter signed an energy bill including the Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act which included provisions effectively prohibiting construction of power plants solely using natural gas or oil. In 1987 the act was repealed. All reliable power plants being built in the US today are powered by natural gas.
This history demonstrates the folly of basing government policies on long-term predictions from numerical models that have not been verified and validated. Verification and validation of models is a process that climate modelers avoid.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Sun As Main Driver: Japanese Scientist Cites 7 Major Examples How Real Climatic Data Contradict AGW Claims
By Kyoji Kimoto, No Tricks Zone, Jan 13, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Draft Summary for Policymakers, NIPCC, 2019
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Challenging the Orthodoxy
UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2018: +0.25 deg. C
2018 was 6th Warmest Year Globally of Last 40 Years
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 2, 2019
December 2018 Maps and Graphs
Including 40 Year Trend (Jan 1979 to Dec 2018)
By Staff, ESSC Global Temperature Report, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Accessed Jan 4, 2019
By Ross McKitrick and John Christy, Earth and Space Science, AGU 100, July 6, 2018
Media Reports of +40% Adjustment in Ocean Warming Were Greatly Exaggerated
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 16, 2019
Ocean Warming in Climate Models Varies Far More than Recent Study Suggests
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 17, 2019
“If models are based upon fundamental physical principles, as we are often told, how can they give such a wide range of results? The answer, of course, is that there are some physical processes which are not well known, for example how clouds and upper tropospheric water vapor change with warming. The devil is in the details.”
“They have nothing to do with how good a certain OHC dataset is. In fact, they assume (as John Christy pointed out to me) each dataset is perfect!”
Ocean Warming: Inadequate Data, Unknown Errors
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Jan 15, 2019
Link to paper: How fast are the oceans warming?
By Lijing Cheng, John Abraham, Zeke Hausfather, Kevin E. Trenberth, Science, Jan 11, 2019
“The oceans are warming, they have to be. If they were not then climate science would be in trouble. If ocean warming is not accelerating then climate science is also in trouble.”
[SEPP Comment: The oceans must be warming, otherwise our concepts on atmospheric warming are wrong!]
Ocean Heat Content Surprises
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 14, 2019
Another Climate Propaganda Story Promoting the Normal as Abnormal.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Jan 14, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Showing the complete plot of Mr. Santer’s “fingerprint”data]
Climate Change Had Nothing To Do With the Camp Fire in Paradise
A Look at Wildfires
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Jan 2, 2019 [H/t Climate Etc.]
“Wildfires have indeed increased since 1970, but that’s relative to previous decades of intensive fire prevention. As fire was recognized as a natural and necessary phenomenon for healthy ecosystems a new era began. In the 70s the US Forest Service moved away from extinguishing all fires by 10 AM the day after detection, switching to a “let it burn policy” if human structures were not endangered.”
“In 2008 the world’s foremost expert on fire history, Stephen Pyne lamented, ‘global warming has furnished political cover to encourage certain fire management decisions while allowing climate to take the blame.’ How true. Both PGE and Governor Brown have blamed wildfires on climate change.”
Ian Plimer: 97% of Scientists Agree on Nothing
By Ian Plimer, The Australian, Via GWPF, Oct 17, 2019
“It is often claimed that 97 per cent of scientists conclude that humans are causing global warming. Is that really true? No. It is a zombie statistic.”
[SEPP Comment: Could it be that “97% of scientists” do not know that the greenhouse gas effect occurs in the atmosphere?]
Climate Hysterics Skyrocket
By Paul Driessen, Townhall, Jan 19, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate
By Jule G. Charney, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chairman, et al. to the:
Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council, National Academy of Science, 1979
By J. T. Kiehl and Kevin E. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997
Figure 7, page 206
Global energy budgets and ‘Trenberth diagrams’ for the climates of terrestrial and gas giant planets
By P.L. Read, et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, January 2016
2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming
By Cheng, L J, et al. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36(3), 249–252,, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x. Mar 2019
Based on the new update of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) ocean analysis (see “Data and methods” section), the total ocean heat anomaly in 2018, relative to a 1981–2010 baseline, and for the upper 2000 m of the world’s oceans, is (19.67 ± 0.83) × 1022 J. This level of thermal energy places 2018 as the hottest year ever recorded.
The World’s Oceans Are Turning Into Bathtubs
It sounds nice, but it’s actually apocalyptic.
By Jack Holmes, Esquire, Jan 16, 2019
Link to paper: 2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming
By Lijing Cheng, Advances in Atmospheric Science, March 2019
The IAP analysis is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2017YFA0603202 and 2016YFC1401705). We appreciate Tim BOYER from NOAA/NCEI to provide the in-situ ocean observations from NOAA/NCEI that were used in this analysis. Author contributions: L. C. and J. Z. are responsible for the IAP analysis and drafted the initial manuscript, with subsequent help from J. A., K. E. T. Authors J.A., K. E. T., J. F., Z. B., F. Y., L. W., X. C. and X. S. provide continual and vital support to the IAP analysis and activities, and contributed to refining this manuscript.” [Boldface added]
Global tensions holding back climate change fight, says WEF
After extreme weather-related events, there is ‘need for international cooperation’
By Larry Elliott, Guardian, UK, Jan 16, 2019
Link to report: The Global Risks Report: 2019
By Staff Writers, World Economic Forum, Jan 15, 2019
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating: 4 Inches Per Decade (or More) by 2100
Satellite data confirm what computer models have warned for years: Oceans are rising faster as the planet warms, and coastal communities face increasing flood risk.
By Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News, Feb 12, 2018 [H/t Tom Hayward]
Link to paper: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States.
By Sweet, et al. NOAA, 2017
A Terrifying Sea-Level Prediction Now Looks Far Less Likely
But experts warn that our overall picture of sea-level rise looks far scarier today than it did even five years ago.
By Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Jan 4, 2019
Pentagon warns of threat to bases from climate change
By Ellen Mitchell, The Hill, Jan 18, 2019
Link to report: Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense
By Staff Writers, DOD, January 2019
“The estimated cost of this report or study for the Department of Defense is approximately $329,000 in Fiscal Years 2018 – 2019.”
“’Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia, has experienced 14 inches in sea level rise since 1930,” with flooding at the base becoming ‘more frequent and severe,’ the report states.”
[SEPP Comment: Langley-Eustis suffers from sinking of land due to groundwater extraction. Pentagon report is as well thought out as the strategic plan for deploying hundreds of thousands of combat troops into Southeast Asia in the 1960s as described in the “Pentagon Papers.”]
How we can combat climate change
The world has until 2030 to drastically cut our emissions. Where do we begin?
By Washington Post Opinions Staff, Jan 2, 2019
Questioning the Orthodoxy
It’s Climate Alarmists Who Remain in Denial
By Marc Sheppard, American Thinker, Jan 16, 2019
Regional Models: 3-10°C Warming In The Next 80 Years. Observations: No Warming In The Last 40-100 Years.
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 14, 2019
Link to Hansen paper: Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide
By Hansen, Sato, Russell, and Kharecha, The Royal Society, Oct 28, 2013
From abstract: “Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate [UK spelling] data.”
Carbonphobia, It Goes Against the Grain
By John Snooke, Quadrant, Jan 17, 2019
“If there was ever an example of an agricultural industry dodging a bullet, it was the grower-funded Grain Research & Development Corporation (GRDC) commissioning a $500,000 report in 2012. The document pushed for the fabled ‘social licence’ to be issued before farmers exercise their presumably qualified ‘right to farm’. Here’s a quote from the introduction to the ‘discussion paper’ (emphasis added):” [Australian spellings]
Making Every Development Dollar Count
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Jan 16, 2019
Ten Reasons for Australia to Exit Paris Now
By Viv Forbes, Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Jan 18, 2019
Paris Agreement Fan Laments Massive Fossil Fuel Powered Industrialisation in Bangladesh
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 19, 2019
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Water, not temperature, limits global forest growth as climate warms
By Staff Writers, Tucson AZ (SPX), Jan 18, 2019
Link to paper: Twentieth century redistribution in climatic drivers of global tree growth
By Flurin Babs, et al. Science Advances, Jan 16, 2019
Seeking a Common Ground
MITRE Releases Report Examining NOAA Internal Policies and the Karl Study
By Charles the Moderator, WUWT, Jan 14, 2019
Link to: Assessment of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Scientific Integrity Policies and Procedures
As Applied to the 2015 Dr. Thomas Karl, et al., Science Paper: “Possible Artifacts of Data Biases in the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus
By Dr. Arthur B. Baggeroer, et al., Mitre, July 2018
Congress Needs to Strengthen Scientific Reproducibility Standards
By David Randall, National Association of Scholars, Dec 17, 2018 [H/t John Dale Dunn]
Once derided, ways of adapting to climate change are gaining steam
Recognition is spreading that communities need to build resilience to climatic and coastal threats even as the world seeks ways to curb emissions driving global warming.
By Andrew Revkin, National Geographic, Jan 9, 2019
An Important New Book Describes How the WA Shellfish Industry is Poisoning our Shoreline Environment
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Jan 14, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to the beliefs of Cliff Mass, Rachel Carson used the practice of hiding evidence that challenged her assumptions about DDT.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
An About-face on the Impact of Landcover Change on Historic Temperatures
Lejeune, Q., Davin, E.L., Gudmundsson, L., Winckler, J. and Seneviratne, S.I. 2018. Historical deforestation locally increased the intensity of hot days in northern mid-latitudes. Nature Climate Change 8: 386-390. Jan 18, 2019
“The results of this analysis thus reveal that the IPCC has incorrectly assumed the magnitude and even the sign of the temperature forcing associated with historical landcover change. Consequently, one is left wondering just how much of the 20th century warming is really due to rising atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases once the correct impact of landcover change is factored in. The answer — not much!”
The Interaction of Elevated CO2 and Drought on Canola
Uddin, S., Löw, M., Parvin, S., Fitzgerald, G.J., Tausz-Posch, S., Armstrong, R. and Tausz, M. 2018. Yield of canola (Brassica napus L.) benefits more from elevated CO2 when access to deeper soil water is improved. Environmental and Experimental Botany 155: 518-528. Jan 17, 2019
The Impacts of a Warming Climate on Human Health in Ningbo, China
Huang, J., Li, G., Liu, Y., Huang, J., Xu, G., Qian, X., Cen, Z., Pan, X., Xu, A., Guo, X. and He, T. 2018. Projections for temperature-related years of life lost from cardiovascular diseases in the elderly in a Chinese city with typical subtropical climate. Environmental Research 167: 614-621. Jan 16, 2019
Impacts of Elevated CO2 on a Perennial Grass Species During Drought
Xu, Q., Fan, N., Zhuang, L., Yu, J. and Huang, B. 2018. Enhanced stolon growth and metabolic adjustment in creeping bentgrass with elevated CO2 concentration. Environmental and Experimental Botany 155: 87-97. Jan 14, 2019
Models v. Observations
Is the U.S. Government Shutdown Hurting Weather Model Accuracy?
Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Jan 15, 2019
Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls, Updated 1970-2018
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, Jan 17, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Can the AMS find the human cause?]
Veteran Meteorologists Warn Of “Bitter Cold” …”Areas Under The Gun” As Models Project Cold Polar Blasts!
By P Gosselin, Not Tricks Zone, Jan 12, 2019
Heaviest Snowfall in 100 Years Brings Chaos to Alpine Ski Resorts
By Staff Writers, The Times, Via GWPF, Jan 12, 2019
Climate change causes three meters of snow in two days, avalanches in Europe
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 15, 2019
CNBC: Houston after Harvey Would have been a Climate Change Financial Disaster – Except that Investors Swarmed the Market
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 18, 2019
Hydrothermal Heat Enhances Abyssal Mixing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current
By Stephanie M. Downes, Bernadette M. Sloyan, Stephen R. Rintoul, John E. Lupton, Geophysical Research Letters, Jan 2, 2019 [H/t Climate Etc.]
New Science: 89% Of The Globe’s Islands – And 100% Of Large Islands – Have Stable Or Growing Coasts
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 17, 2019
[SEPP Comment: River sediment can increase both land area and coastlines.]
Solar activity to blame for jellyfish surge, expert says, as warming waters ‘rev up’ metabolism
By Malcolm Sutton, ABC Radio Adelaide, Jan 16, 2019
“But her team believed jellyfish numbers increased because solar cycles could affect wind changes, which “turned over nutrients and stimulated the growth of phytoplankton” and subsequently ocean food productivity.”
[SEPP Comment: The major predators of jellyfish are other jellyfish, sea turtles, ocean sunfish, tuna, sharks, etc.]
Antarctic Losing Tiny Amounts Of Ice (Or Maybe It’s Gaining Ice, NASA Is Not Sure!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 15, 2019
Link to paper: Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017
The IMBIE team, Nature, June 14, 2018
Tweedledee Or Tweedledum–The Riddle Of Antarctic Ice Melt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 16, 2019
“The true margin of error in Antarctica should reflect the lack of data, and not the variability of the tiny amount of data which you do have.”
As Glaciers Retreat, They Give up the Bodies and Artifacts They Swallowed
Around the world global warming is exposing bodies lost in glaciers
By Marissa Fessenden, Smithsonian.com. May 27, 2015 [H/t Paul Driessen]
Images from 2017 and 2018 show polar bears thriving in a warming world
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 18, 2019
Southern Beaufort polar bear attack far from the Alaskan coast: another winter example
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 15, 2019
Earth’s Shifting Magnetic Pole May be Confusing Your Cell Phone
By Tony Phillips, Space Weather, Jan 16, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“’Since late 2014, Earth’s core field has varied in an unpredicted, and currently unpredictable, manner [including a sudden change in declinaton called a ‘geomagnetic jerk‘ in 2014/2015],”
What are the Implications for Climate of Recent North Magnetic Pole Activity?
Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Jan 13, 2019
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
RUDN pedologists found out a correct combination of nitrogen fertilizers and plastic mulch
By Staff Writers, Moscow, Russia (SPX) Jan 16, 2019
Link to paper: Fate and transport of urea-N in a rain-fed ridge-furrow crop system with plastic mulch
By Sheng Guo, et al. Soil and Tillage Research, March 2019
Global Warming Crop Apocalypse Is Just Media Fear-Mongering
By James Taylor, American Thinker, Jan 14, 2019
Climate change brings extreme weather
Editorial, Physics World, Jan 14, 2019
This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of individual extreme events.
By Staff Writers, The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, December 2018
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Thomas Sowell: Politics By Catchwords
By Thomas Sowell, IBD, Jan 17, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
New Allegations of ‘Fishy’ Climate Science
By Graham Lloyd, The Australian, Via GWPF, Jan 1, 2019
Climate Change will make coffee extinct or something like that
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 18, 2019
Link to report: Most coffee species at risk of extinction due to climate change, scientists warn
By Belinda Smith and Nick Kilvert, ABC Science, Jan 16, 2019
World’s coffee under threat, say experts! (And The BBC Believes Them)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 18, 2019
Link to one paper: High extinction risk for wild coffee species and implications for coffee sector sustainability
By Aaron Davis, et al, Science Advances, Jan 16, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Natural coffee plants which are native to Central and Northern South America, tropical Africa, Asia, etc. can’t take the heat?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
How to Convince a Conservative That climate Change is Real
New research points to the benefits of first establishing the value of science in general.
By Tom Jacobs, Pacific Standard, Jan 14, 2019
Link to report: Who is changing their mind about global warming and why?
By Kathryn S. Deeg, et al, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, Jan 9, 2019
Survey: GMO food critics overestimate their knowledge of the subject
By Brooks Hays, UPI, Jan 15, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
PIK Scientist Rahmstorf Goes After Hebrew University’s Nir Shaviv …But Gets Caught Fudging Inconvenient Data
Stefan Rahmstorf caught redhanded manipulating temperature charts
By Michael Krueger (Text translated/edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Jan 18, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
How science fiction helps readers understand climate change
Can imagined futures of drowned cities and solar utopias help us grasp the complexity of climate change? Diego Arguedas Ortiz takes a look.
By Diego Arguedas Ortiz, BBC, Jan 15, 2019
The North Devon Coast & The Impact Of Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 15, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The standard government propaganda on the need to preserve the beauty of the area from climate change does not discuss new industrial farms.]
The Global Risks Report: 2019
By Staff Writers, World Economic Forum, Jan 15, 2019
Cities Are Tucking Climate Change Fixes Into New Laws
By Adam Rogers, Wired, Jan 15, 2019
The Lancet: Diet and food production must radically change to improve health and avoid potentially catastrophic damage to the planet
By Charles the Moderator, WUWT, Jan 17, 2019
Questioning European Green
The Growing Absurdities of the German Energiewende
By Christopher Eisenring, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Via GWPF, Jan 19, 2019
“Although the two gas-fired power plants are investment ruins, Uniper is now building a third gas-fired power plant at the same location.”
“The [new] power plant with a capacity of 300 megawatts is to produce ‘not for the market’, but only in emergency situations to stabilize the grid. And for this emergency service, Uniper receives a remuneration that makes the construction worthwhile. Tennet can ultimately pass the costs on to consumers. The power plant will be available from October 2022
“Of the planned 7670 kilometers of power lines [for wind power], only 950 kilometers are in operation.”
[SEPP Comment: Discovering that 35% of electricity from renewable sources is not the same as 35% of electricity from coal. It can be far more expensive!]
Swiss Daily NZZ: More Than 1000 Citizen Wind Energy Protest Groups …Germany “On Path To The Unknown”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 15, 2019
Diesel FARCE U-TURN? MPs tax diesel for environment and CO2 emissions go UP – new study
THE rapid decline in diesel car sales and fledgling public opinion is causing one huge environmental problem.
By Luke John Smith, Express, UK, Jan 9, 2019 H/t GWPF]
Isles of Scilly “Smart” Energy Future To Come At Crippling Cost
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 18, 2019
Questioning Green Elsewhere
‘No Country for Radicals’: India Fights Back Against Obstructionist Nonprofits
By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, Jan 17, 2019
New York State and Renewables
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Jan 12, 2019
Dark Green Money Reveals Vast Self-Dealing Network in Canada’s Climate Change “Leadership” like Green New Deal Proposal says Friends of Science
By Staff Writers, Friends of Science, PRWEB, Alberta, Jan 17, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Link to report: Dark Green Money
By Robert Lyman, Friends of Science Society, Jan 10, 2019
The Political Games Continue
The Unofficial Abandonment of the Scientific Method by Climate Alarmists and Democratic Socialists
By Alan Carlin, Carline Economics and Science, Jan 19, 2019
Saving The Earth At The Point Of A Bayonet
By George Rasley, ICECAP, Jan 14, 2019
The “tippy top” plan for a “Green New Deal’s” same-old misanthropy
By Charles Battig, CFACT, Jan 13, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Key Democratic Lawmakers Skeptical of Carbon Tax
By Peter Hirschfeld, Vermont Public Radio, Jan 15, 2019
The carbon tax – a wolf in green clothing
By Lawrence Zupan, Mountain Times, Vermont, Jan 16, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Subsidies of up to £1billion given to firms for burning wood in power stations could be axed – as critics argue it creates same CO2 as coal
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 15, 2019
“Some of us have, of course, been arguing these points for a long time. It is not clear, however, how Michael Gove can put an end to CfD subsidies, as they are legally enforceable contracts which last for 15 years. Government cannot simply renege on them.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
The Middle East, Africa, and Asia now drive nearly all global energy consumption growth
By Staff Writers, Hellenic Shipping News, Jan 10, 2019
Consumers ‘Grossly Overpaying’ for Electricity
Press Release, GWPF, Jan 10, 2019
Link to Report: A Cheaper, Cleaner Electricity System
By Capell Aris, GWPF, 2019
Does the UK really need fracked gas?
By Heidi Vella, Power Technology, Jan 10, 2019
“While natural gas is pivotal to the energy transition, it will be interesting to see if, given the current exploration delays, the huge evolution anticipated for smart grid technology, the falling price of renewables, battery technology and smarter energy management, the government’s backing of fracking ages well.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Will “anticipated” become unrealistic and over-promised?]
Energy Issues – Australia
How To Make Australia A Superpower In Renewable Energy Exports
By Cynthia Shahan, Clean Technica, Jan 6, 2019
“Politicians around Australia are proposing ambitious plans to export renewable energy from Australia, using high-voltage power lines laid under the oceans.”
“Our ultimate goal is to build a coalition of nation builders to make Australia a renewable energy exporting superpower.”
“The authors presented their research at the GEIDCO’s event co-hosted with IEA at COP24 Poland.”
[SEPP Comment: Unreal! South Australia has problems with failing renewables. The proposal is to export those problems to Indonesia, which has an abundant supply of reliable coal?]
The hottest thing in SA and Victoria tomorrow may be electricity prices
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 14, 2019
Energy Issues — US
Samuel Insull and Rural Electrification (it did not start with FDR’s New Deal )
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Jan 16, 2019
FDR’s New Deal with Energy: Part V (Rural Electrification)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Jan 15, 2019
“Ironically, FDR’s New Deal squashed the remote turbine/battery business in favor of (coal-fired) central-station power. Is the New Deal that Green New Dealers aspire to?”
Greens begin push for nationwide 100 percent renewable energy mandate
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, Jan 10, 2019
Washington’s Control of Energy
Abrupt regulatory changes crimping pipelines
By Jim Murchie, Houston Chronicle, Jan 11, 2019
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
US to Become Third Largest LNG Exporter in 2019
By Shailaja A. Lakshmi, Marine Link, Jan 11, 2019 [H/t Real Clear Energy]
Russia looks to build ‘LNG Island’ to supply booming Asian market
By Staff Writers, RT, Jan 17, 2019
U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Hits Record Highs Again
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Jan 6, 2019
Return of King Coal?
Navajo Nation considers taking over large Arizona coal mine and power plant
By Ryan Randazzo, Arizona Republic, Jan 7, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Former top regulator now says nuclear power ‘hazardous’
In explosive new book, calls for U.S. reactors to be shut down before ‘catastrophe’
By Mark Albert, KCRA, Sacramento, CA, Jan 14, 2019
“’I now believe that nuclear power is more hazardous than it is worth,’ Greg Jaczko writes in his debut book, “Confessions of a Rogue Nuclear Regulator,” which is based on his three years as chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission under President Barack Obama.”
[SEPP Comment: His views are probably not a surprise to many in the nuclear industry.]
U.S. CO2 Emissions Rise As Nuclear Power Plants Close
By James Conca, Forbes, Jan 16, 2019
“The world’s top climate scientists, including Dr. James Hansen, Dr. Tom Wigley, Dr. Ken Caldeira and Dr. Kerry Emanuel, have all urged world leaders and environmental campaigners to stop their unscientific and ideological attacks on nuclear energy and support its expansion.”
[SEPP Comment: Question the above statement as to the world’s top climate scientists.]
Hitachi to suspend all work on UK nuclear plant
Funding deadlock looks set to sink Japan’s last overseas nuclear project
By Staff Writers, Nikkei Asian Review, Jan 11, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind to lead U.S. electric capacity additions at power plants in 2019
By Renzo Pipoli. Washington (UPI) Jan 11, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Leading to current and future subsidies.]
Wind Energy — Where Bigger Is Better
Wind turbines are getting big, and that’s great news for the industry.
By Travis Holum, The Motley Fool, Jan 11, 2019
“Taking wind offshore will open new areas for growth”
[SEPP Comment: Growth in costs to the consumer?]
Alpine solar panels could address Swiss energy gap
By Staff Writers, Swissinfor.ch, Jan 8, 2019
“The snow-capped Swiss Alps may help compensate for projected energy shortfalls as the country switches from nuclear to renewable energy sources. Researchers propose erecting solar panels on mountain tops to bridge the energy gap.”
[SEPP Comment: When it snows 3 meters (10 feet) in 2 days, what provides the power?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Four Minutes for $150 million
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 15, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Nissan Leaf sales collapse in Ontario after incentive axed
By Stephanie Wallcraft, Automotive News Canada, Jan 8, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Status of Battery-Powered Vehicles
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 18, 2019
Man-made US bushfires caused by PG&E, being sued for $30b: may take down some renewables too
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 16, 2019
Other News that May Be of Interest
The US could lose its crown as the world’s most powerful economy as soon as next year, and it’s unlikely to ever get it back
By Will Martin, Business Insider, Jan 10, 2019
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2019
Sink or …
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Jan 17, 2019
“The idea was conceived by advertising agency Ogilvy & Mather, who were commissioned by banking giant HSBC to promote its £50million project tackling climate change.
“The Ogilvy team came up with an innovative way to show the adverse impact of global climate change. They glued an aerial view of a city to the base of a swimming pool. When the pool was filled with water, it gave a shocking effect akin to a city submerged in water.
“The visual of a sunken city shocked swimmers and onlookers, driving home the impact of global warming, and how it could destroy our world someday. The Telegraph, 26 Nov 2008”
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org Jan 16, 2019
“Some of Australia’s most vulnerable native animals could die out as climate change takes its toll on their already fragile existence.
“The warning is contained in a report that catalogues the risks facing 11 species from the impact of rising temperatures and rainfall decline.
“The report, produced by environmental group WWF and a research team from Macquarie University, says global warming could skew the sex ratios for marine turtles in favour of females, as sex is determined by the incubation temperature of eggs.
“Tammie Matson from the WWF, said while Australian species had adapted to climate change in the past, many were now suffering from habitat loss and introduced predators.
“’Climate change is just another factor in the mix that could spell extinction for a number of species,’ Dr Matson said. ‘It will exacerbate existing threats. It will tip some species over the edge.’ The Age (Australia), 25 Mat 2008 – screen copy held by this website”
1. Economists’ Statement on Carbon Dividends
Bipartisan agreement on how to combat climate change.
Editorial, WSJ, Jan16,2019
SUMMARY: The letter begins:
“Global climate change is a serious problem calling for immediate national action. Guided by sound economic principles, we are united in the following policy recommendations.
“I. A carbon tax offers the most cost-effective lever to reduce carbon emissions at the scale and speed that is necessary. By correcting a well-known market failure, a carbon tax will send a powerful price signal that harnesses the invisible hand of the marketplace to steer economic actors towards a low-carbon future.
“II. A carbon tax should increase every year until emissions reductions goals are met and be revenue neutral to avoid debates over the size of government. A consistently rising carbon price will encourage technological innovation and large-scale infrastructure development. It will also accelerate the diffusion of carbon-efficient goods and services.
“III. A sufficiently robust and gradually rising carbon tax will replace the need for various carbon regulations that are less efficient. Substituting a price signal for cumbersome regulations will promote economic growth and provide the regulatory certainty companies need for long- term investment in clean-energy alternatives.
“IV. To prevent carbon leakage and to protect U.S. competitiveness, a border carbon adjustment system should be established. This system would enhance the competitiveness of American firms that are more energy-efficient than their global competitors. It would also create an incentive for other nations to adopt similar carbon pricing.
“V. To maximize the fairness and political viability of a rising carbon tax, all the revenue should be returned directly to U.S. citizens through equal lump-sum rebates. The majority of American families, including the most vulnerable, will benefit financially by receiving more in “carbon dividends” than they pay in increased energy prices.
“George Akerlof, Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Peter Diamond, Robert Engle, Eugene Fama, Lars Peter Hansen, Oliver Hart, Bengt Holmström, Daniel Kahneman, Finn Kydland, Robert Lucas, Eric Maskin, Daniel McFadden, Robert Merton, Roger Myerson, Edmund Phelps, Alvin Roth, Thomas Sargent, Myron Scholes, Amartya Sen, William Sharpe, Robert Shiller, Christopher Sims, Robert Solow, Michael Spence and Richard Thaler are recipients of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
Other signers include former Treasury secretaries, members of the Council of Economic Advisers, and officers of the Federal Reserve.
2. Big Names Bake a Climate Pie in the Sky
They mean well, but eminent economists are pushing an unreal ‘carbon dividend’ plan.
By Holman Jenkins, Jr. WSJ, Jan 18, 2019
“An impressive list of names endorse a carbon dividend proposal published in The Wall Street Journal this week. They include 27 Nobel Prize winners plus former Treasury secretaries, Federal Reserve chairmen and White House economists.
“They propose not only a steadily rising fossil-energy tax, but a new bureaucracy to distribute the proceeds to every American in annual “dividend” payments. They would repeal the existing panoply of green subsidies and mandates. Their program also requires a new import tax to stop U.S. industry from shifting its carbon-intensive activities offshore.
“Their plan contains quite a few moving parts. As Texas Democrat and new liberal heartthrob Beto O’Rourke seems to say about everything these days, let’s start a discussion!
“And that’s the problem. I can’t help thinking of the original grand bargain worked up by the tobacco industry, plaintiffs’ lawyers, the states, and antismoking groups in 1997. Here’s our program, now enact it, they said to Congress. Never were Republicans and Democrats so united in telling a collection of special interests to get lost.
“By its very breadth and radical nature, the carbon-dividend plan announces a climate emergency. This concession Democrats will gladly embrace, along with any chance to enact a new tax. But distributing the proceeds equally to the rich? That sounds insufficiently progressive. Besides, since we face a “climate emergency,” wouldn’t the money be better spent on speeding up deployment of wind and solar? As for existing mandates and subsidies, sure, we might expend additional political energy to repeal these. And pigs might fly.
“Congress, let’s remind ourselves, exists to pursue national priorities in a way that greases as many special interests as possible. To the voting public, meanwhile, the cost of effective climate action dwarfs the perceived benefits by a country mile. This is why our existing climate efforts, while expensively pleasing to certain lobbying interests, are so trifling as to be inconsequential to the climate.
“The dividend approach is supposed to end-run the problem of public support by putting the money back into voters’ pockets directly. Good luck with that. And it still doesn’t solve the deeper conundrum.”
Jenkins discusses CO2 emissions are a global issue, not a national issue and further writes:
“The carbon-dividend crowd, unlike the Green New Deal crowd, at least addresses the global dimension—but with a colossal and unlikely act of coercion. Other nations, they tell us, will be forced to enact their own carbon taxes to get relief from our import tax. In their hubris, they dictate not only to the U.S. Congress, but to all the world’s legislatures.
“Let’s grow up. The world faces lots of problems, none more so than its vastly accumulating debt.
“Climate scientists are not nearly as simple-minded as climate reporters. Scientists’ worst-case emissions scenario, RCP 8.5, is one in which the global economy lapses into economic and technological stagnation (contradicting an assumption on the left that stopping economic growth is the solution to climate change).
“A tax reform that included a carbon tax to replace taxes that depress work, saving and investment would be an incentive to do everything in a less carbon-intensive way, bringing forth new technologies.
“More to the point, it would be a model other countries could adopt out of self-interest—they need growth too, and tax reform is a way to stimulate it. Political grand bargains are unneeded. Legislators in the future will be endlessly hungry for revenue collected in ways that minimally impact growth.
“A carbon tax is not a miracle solution. There aren’t any. We will be living with some amount of climate change due to the highly uncertain effects of rising CO2 levels for the foreseeable future. The difference between a happy and unhappy outcome for humanity will come down to our ability to maintain economic growth and technological progress in the face of our extraordinarily daunting debt challenges.
“Finally, pardon a valedictory cynicism, but the most important truth about any political proposal is the part unsaid. Corporations rush to fund the carbon-dividend campaign not because [they] believe the plan is actionable, but because CEOs and PR departments need something gaudy to point to in order to suggest their concern about climate.
“Not that I doubt the sincerity of many who sign on to this DOA proposal, but their credibility could have been better spent. Imagine if it had been employed to alert the media to the dubious, longstanding, likely fraudulent science of radiation risk that has so inhibited the development of nuclear power. Overnight the chances of the world dealing efficiently with its climate puzzle would be increased appreciably.”