Earth’s polar regions communicate via oceanic ‘postcards,’ atmospheric ‘text messages’

From Eurekalert

Oregon State University

187073_web
Caption Freshly drilled segment of the WAIS Divide ice core is brought to the surface. Credit Tommy Cox Usage Restrictions None

CORVALLIS, Ore. – Scientists have documented a two-part climatic connection between the North Atlantic Ocean and Antarctica, a fast atmospheric channel and a much slower oceanic one, that caused rapid changes in climate during the last ice age – and may again.

In a new study published this week in Nature, an international team of scientists describe how extremely abrupt climate change events 60,000 to 12,000 years ago came from the repeated strengthening and weakening of an oceanic current that warms Greenland and Europe by bringing warm water from the tropics via the Gulf Stream into the North Atlantic Ocean. That current is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

The new research documents how the North Atlantic communicates these extreme events to Antarctica, at the opposite side of the world.

“The North Atlantic is sending messages to Antarctica on two different time scales,” said Christo Buizert, an Oregon State University climate change specialist and lead author on the study. “The atmospheric connection is like a text message that arrives right away, while the oceanic one is more like a postcard that takes its time getting there – in this case, 200 years, which makes the postal service look pretty good by comparison.

“When the North Atlantic warms because of the strengthened AMOC, all of Antarctica eventually will cool because of oceanic changes. It begins with the winds, but the ocean delivers a much bigger impact two centuries later.”

During the last ice age this AMOC current was usually very weak, plunging the North Atlantic region into frigid conditions. But occasionally it would strengthen very quickly, causing Greenland to warm suddenly, the researchers say. Whenever Greenland warmed, climate in Antarctica on the other side of the world would change – twice.

Global atmospheric conditions changed immediately and westerly winds blowing around Antarctica shifted away from the land, which caused warming in some parts of Antarctica and cooling in others. The second half of the impact was much slower, a cooling effect of the southern hemisphere oceans that didn’t manifest itself in Antarctica for 200 years.

The study explains why the climate in Greenland and Antarctica have not exactly aligned over time, according to Oregon State atmospheric scientist Justin Wettstein, a co-author on the study.

“This is the first time that you can so clearly see the nuts and bolts of how the climate works on time scales much longer than our meteorological observations,” Wettstein said. “It allows us to see how Greenland and Antarctica have been connected – spatially and temporally – long before people were running around with thermometers to measure the temperature.”

To reconstruct the climate, the researchers examined ice cores from five different locations in Antarctica and synchronized the dates by looking at layers of volcanic ash. They measured changes in the temperature by analyzing ratios of water isotopes. They then matched the data with well-established dates of the so-called “Dansgaard-Oeschger” events in Greenland ice cores to pinpoint the connection between the hemispheres.

These extremely abrupt events happened roughly 25 times during the last ice age, from 100,000 to 20,000 years ago, the researchers say.

“When the Gulf Stream switches on to full strength, Greenland can warm as much as 10 to 15 degrees Celsius within a decade,” Buizert said. “The change is abrupt and massive. As the ocean transfers heat to the north, the rest of the global ocean starts to cool down. Antarctica eventually ‘notices’ the oceans getting colder, but only after 200 years have passed.”

The atmospheric shift in Antarctica’s past has a certain pattern of where it is warmer and where it is colder – a kind of temperature fingerprint, Buizert said.

“What is really neat is that by looking at modern-day observational data we can find an analog for what happened in the past,” Buizert said. “Like forensic detectives, we can compare the temperature fingerprint in the ice cores to the fingerprints of modern-day wind patterns. This is how we identified the culprit – the southern hemisphere westerly winds.”

Observational data and climate models show that the AMOC current today is weakening because of global climate change, thus what happened during the last ice age could happen again.

The researchers say that if the past is a guide for what the future may hold, the weakening of the AMOC likely will decrease the potency of Asian monsoons and billions of people depend on that rain for their livelihood. The changing wind patterns in the southern hemisphere also will lessen the ocean’s ability to take up carbon dioxide, meaning more CO2 emissions will stay in the atmosphere, strengthening the greenhouse effect.

“We know that our world is now warming on average, but the regional changes depend also on how the atmospheric and oceanic circulations respond,” Wettstein said, “and that is something that climate models still disagree on. This study gives us a real-world example of past circulation change that we can use to test and improve our models.”

The researchers caution that other influences besides the AMOC also will affect climate change – rising temperatures from greenhouse gases are a major factor globally, and changes to the ozone layer affect wind patterns and climate in Antarctica.

Buizert, who has been on scientific expeditions to Antarctica and Greenland multiple times, said the research is “really exciting for climate geeks like us to figure out how the pieces of our climate are connected.”

“The findings also may have implications for the future,” he noted. “The AMOC is weakening now because of global warming and meltwater from Greenland. The ‘text message’ is being sent and atmospheric conditions are changing. The ‘postcard’ is on the way.”

###

The study was supported by the National Science Foundation and other sources. Authors on the study were from the U.S., Switzerland, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Australia, Japan and France.

Buizert and Wettstein are in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.

 

 

 

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Rob_Dawg
November 29, 2018 2:06 pm

> These extremely abrupt events happened roughly 25 times during the last ice age, from 100,000 to 20,000 years ago, the researchers say.

“When the Gulf Stream switches on to full strength, Greenland can warm as much as 10 to 15 degrees Celsius within a decade,” Buizert said. “The change is abrupt and massive”

Might be time to retire the word “Anthropogenic” from the discussion eh?

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Rob_Dawg
November 29, 2018 2:20 pm

Anything it did pre-1950 was natural. Anything the AMOC might do now and into the future is anthropogenic — because they said so.

And the AMOC was generally weaker during Ice Ages and also getting weaker now because of global warming, which will heat up the Antarctic via a PostCard. But when the AMOC speeds up, the Gulf Stream intensifies and melts Greenland melts faster, like it does now with climate change.
And that extra Greenland melt water does something… like either speeding up or slowing down the AMOC, whichever we need you to believe in this week’s update from the Ministry of Propaganda..

Try to keep up.

Bryan A
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
November 29, 2018 2:25 pm

That is because Climate Change has the AMOC running Amok

Jean Parisot
Reply to  Rob_Dawg
November 29, 2018 11:46 pm

Wow, something else for the Russians to hack.

Lance Wallace
November 29, 2018 2:18 pm

So Antarctica is responding now to events in the North Atlantic 200 years ago (end of the Little Ice Age, nearly?) Actually, this might help in explaining the zero temperature increase in the Antarctic during the satellite period, unexplained by models which posit symmetry between the Poles, despite the fact that no symmetry is visible in the data. Continuing the 200-year idea, the response to initial global warming beginning in 1950 would not show up until 2150, far beyond our present horizon of 2100.

commieBob
Reply to  Lance Wallace
November 29, 2018 3:41 pm

The Antarctic is effectively decoupled from the rest of the planet’s climate by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Other than being cold, the Arctic and Antarctic are totally different climate regimes.

The area of Greenland is 2,166,086 square km. It is about 2400 km long by 1100 km wide. Antarctica is about 14,000,000 square km. Antarctica’s greatest diameter is about 5500 km. The only figure they have close to each other is altitude.

Anyone who expects the Antarctic and Greenland to act the same has a lot of ‘splainin to do.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Lance Wallace
November 29, 2018 4:38 pm

Well since the AMO has a 60-70 cycle, then by definition that’s a warm phase for ~35 years and a cold phase ~30 years.
Over 200 years there are 3 cold postcards and 3 warm postcards slowly only their way to Antarctica. Whichever one gets there next will be the one they need to explain in the next Climate Change grant proposal and research paper.
The pseudoscience of Climate Change — All bases covered.

Editor
Reply to  Lance Wallace
November 30, 2018 4:11 am

Lance Wallace wrote, “Actually, this might help in explaining the zero temperature increase in the Antarctic during the satellite period, unexplained by models which posit symmetry between the Poles, despite the fact that no symmetry is visible in the data.”

Excellent description, Lance, of yet another problem with the models.

Cheers,
Bob

Johnny Cuyana
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
December 3, 2018 5:09 am

Yet, regardless of the many such examples of newly published research, time and again — the incessant background din — the academy and media are screaming: The Science is SETTLED! The Science is SETTLED!

My hunch: we ain’t seen the half of it.

Mike Thies
November 29, 2018 2:20 pm

Sounds like excellent evidence that the computer model dominated “science” of climatology deserves those quote marks.

Editor
Reply to  Mike Thies
November 30, 2018 5:31 am

Mike, maybe climate science also deserves a question mark within the quotes: “climate science?”…and an asterisk maybe “climate science?!”

Bryan A
November 29, 2018 2:22 pm

Hmmm….
Gorebal Warming from CO2 will enhance the Greenhouse effect further warming the planet and thereby hasten the onset of the next ice age…
Or did I read it wrong??

Bob boder
Reply to  Bryan A
November 30, 2018 5:47 am

nope that’s what they said.

It warms, it cools, but either way we are all dooooomed! So repent and give up your freedom and all of your money so you can atone!

It’s amazing how the most anti-religious people in the world are the most fervent believers!
And that’s coming from someone about as religious as a rock!

J Mac
November 29, 2018 2:24 pm

Historical weather analogs can provide some predictive value to future forecasts. That much is factual. However, the bulk of this ‘news’ release provides assertions without substantiation details.

AndyE
Reply to  J Mac
November 29, 2018 6:11 pm

Yes – where’s the beef?? It is always amazing how many strange correlations you can find if you, by the help of a computer, search huge screeds of data, occurring over time. But correlation does not equal causation . In this case “the postcard is on the way” – we only now have to wait a couple of hundred years to prove the connection. Luckily for them, the authors of the theory will receive payment for their “research” before then. In fact, they got the payment in advance – when funding was granted. Their genius consisted of scheming out a convincing enough piece of climate research (and there sure are some suckers in those departments).

November 29, 2018 2:26 pm

Two Earth’s polar region communicate and dictate global temperature via its slow changing magnetic field, the best decadal forecast there is : link to data

Barry Constant
Reply to  vukcevic
November 29, 2018 6:07 pm

That is an interesting correlation. It also seems to match the chamges in sunspot activity peaks for the same time period. Does the geomagnetic field get stronger when the sun’s does?

Reply to  Barry Constant
November 29, 2018 11:20 pm

hi
The right hand scale (green) is inverse. this is mainly due to the Antarctic’s field which has inverse correlation with the solar activity (see here )

November 29, 2018 2:29 pm

All very interesting, but far too long term to suit the GREEN movement .

“What do we want ? we want it now”.

They always want “,Action” now, and as to repent, no way, Never.

MJE

Curious George
November 29, 2018 2:30 pm

“You can so clearly see the nuts and bolts of how the climate works.” Please incorporate it in models, by all means. But you can’t do it, because the science is settled. BTW, I don’t believe you.

Russ R.
Reply to  Curious George
November 29, 2018 3:05 pm

Gaia is not happy about you “seeing her nuts and bolts”.
$10,000.00 in carbon credits will avoid her wrath.

Neil Jordan
Reply to  Russ R.
November 29, 2018 3:28 pm

Carbon credits? No need to spend $10,000 for that other guy’s carbon credits. Get your carbon credits/offsets here, for free.
http://www.freecarbonoffsets.com/home.do
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Number of free certificates delivered since April, 2007: 21,756

davidmhoffer
Reply to  Neil Jordan
November 29, 2018 5:39 pm

+1
Hilarious.

bonbon
Reply to  Neil Jordan
November 30, 2018 3:48 am

And they say TANSTAAFL !

ROFL!

November 29, 2018 2:36 pm

How do magnetic fields distort space/time? Sure is an interesting interaction…we should really study and experiment on that because Earth’s magnetic poles are in the process of reversing and we don’t know what danger that will pose to humanity – since humanity wasn’t around last time it happened. But already the iron in the magma is getting pulled into new circulatory patterns causing volcanoes to go off that hadn’t gone off in a long time.

MarkW
Reply to  Michael Phillip Miller
November 29, 2018 8:41 pm

Do you have any idea how weak the earth’s magnetic field is?

Volcanoes that haven’t gone off in a long time are going off all the time. That’s the way volcanoes work. Most of them stay dormant for a few hundred to a few thousand years then go boom.
Given the number of volcanoes on the planet, it’s hardly unusual that one or two go boom every year.

1sky1
November 29, 2018 2:56 pm

In reality, all they have is ice-core data. Everything they claim about the AMOC and global circulation “text-messages” and “postcards” is sheer game-playing speculation wrapped in the imagery of cyber-wonks.

Kurt
Reply to  1sky1
November 29, 2018 3:50 pm

No, they’ll always have their models.

Greg Cavanagh
Reply to  Kurt
November 29, 2018 4:28 pm

Thankfully the models demonstrate reality. Have we intercepted any of the text messages and post cards to know what the poles are saying to each other? Nothing about squirrel droppings I hope.

Robertvd
November 29, 2018 2:57 pm

‘These extremely abrupt events happened roughly 25 times during the last ice age, from 100,000 to 20,000 years ago, the researchers say.’

If I’m not mistaken Earth is still in an Ice Age.
https://www.iceagenow.info/anyone-says-enduring-unprecedented-global-warming-lying-woefully-misinformed/

Ron Long
November 29, 2018 3:02 pm

So there are markers in Greenland and Antarctica that correlate if you add 200 years? And this proves causation? What if there is a third event somewhere else that influences both events? How does this oceanic circulation work exactly? Mark me down on the skeptic side, but not yet on the denier side.

jmorpuss
November 29, 2018 3:02 pm

Hi Charles the moderator,
I think this is were the future of science is headed. As Walter Lewin states in his 8.02 lectures, “If it wasn’t for electricity we wouldn’t be here ”

Tom in Florida
Reply to  jmorpuss
November 29, 2018 4:14 pm

Really CTM, EU? Well it is your can of worms you just opened.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  jmorpuss
November 29, 2018 4:43 pm

Verboten topic at WUWT.

November 29, 2018 3:05 pm

“The change is abrupt and massive. As the ocean transfers heat to the north, the rest of the global ocean starts to cool down.”

There doesn’t appear to exist any historical data to support that declaration.

“As the ocean transfers heat to the north, the rest of the global ocean starts to cool down.”

The ocean transfers heat to the south also.

Kurt
Reply to  Chad Jessup
November 29, 2018 3:45 pm

But . . . but they’ve actually “seen the nuts and bolts” of this, as it happens and over “time scales much longer than our meteorological observations” can provide . Come on, dude – stop denying the science. Surely their being able to see this as it happens for, over long a period of time, has to change your skeptical mind.

Latitude
November 29, 2018 3:06 pm

Dear Lord in heaven…they discovered the AMO….that flows directly into the Arctic

Now if they will just look at Arctic ice and global temperatures at the same time……

http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Arctic-sea-vs-AMO-Rog-Tallbloke.png

Bob boder
November 29, 2018 3:10 pm

“AMOC is weaken because of climate change”
Or is it the cause?

“The last ice age”
We are still in an ice age

DonM
Reply to  Bob boder
November 29, 2018 5:55 pm

yep, but this is the LAST one… so technically ….

Bob boder
Reply to  DonM
November 30, 2018 5:52 am

Technically my butt! Read the article!

DonM
Reply to  Bob boder
November 30, 2018 11:46 am

the last one we are gonna have 🙂

Kurt
November 29, 2018 3:40 pm

Classic example of science-by-metaphor. I lost count halfway through the post.

Kurt
Reply to  Kurt
November 29, 2018 3:59 pm

To follow up, consider this passage:

“The atmospheric shift in Antarctica’s past has a certain pattern of where it is warmer and where it is colder – a kind of temperature fingerprint, Buizert said. ‘What is really neat is that by looking at modern-day observational data we can find an analog for what happened in the past,’ Buizert said. ‘Like forensic detectives, we can compare the temperature fingerprint in the ice cores to the fingerprints of modern-day wind patterns. This is how we identified the culprit – the southern hemisphere westerly winds.'”

This is just stupid. The essence of a fingerprint is not the association of a pattern on a person’s finger with that person, it’s the lack of association between that pattern and any other person. In other words, the pattern can uniquely identify a person because the pattern doesn’t appear on anyone else’s finger. How is this analogy remotely relevant to connecting spatial patterns of relative temperature patterns in Antarctica thousands of years ago to spatial patterns in modern day winds. It’s just a bunch of conclusory nonsense.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Kurt
November 30, 2018 9:58 am

More like AMORC stuff than AMOC.

Pft
November 29, 2018 4:20 pm

“Observational data and climate models show that the AMOC current today is weakening because of global climate change, thus what happened during the last ice age could happen again.”

What do you mean could happen again. Its been happening over and over again. Over the last 600K years we have had at least 5 glacial/interglacial cycles . They had nothing to do with AGW and neither will the next one. I guess they want to cover themselves for when temperatures start dropping. Move south before the panic.

HotScot
November 29, 2018 4:39 pm

More insane scientists.

Just what we need.

taxed
November 29, 2018 4:46 pm

So for a change in climate you first need a change in the weather, and over the last 12 months or more the weather has been showing us how it helps to cool the N Atlantic.

Alan Tomalty
November 29, 2018 4:47 pm

“Observational data and climate models show that the AMOC current today is weakening because of global climate change, thus what happened during the last ice age could happen again.”

Pure Bullshit. There is no overall trend in sea temperatures. they had to put that line in to get their funding.

A BIG assumption is
“We will here assume that Antarctic temperature is closely linked to SO SST and can be used as a measure thereof”

“Note that our hypothesis does not encompass the stability of the stadial AMOC mode. The long stadial durations of MIS 2 and MIS 4 may simply reflect the absence of DO events; if those events (marked in yellow in Figure 3) are not considered, there is no clear relationship between stadial duration and SH conditions. ”

Stadial means cold or frigid.
The smoking gun of fraud is the following gem:

“To test our hypothesis, we performed a series of model experiments using the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity”

MarkW
Reply to  Alan Tomalty
November 29, 2018 8:43 pm

I thought they re-examined the data and found out the AMOC wasn’t weakening after all.

Alan Tomalty
Reply to  MarkW
November 29, 2018 10:37 pm

I don’t care what they think they found. Using a climate model to test a hypothesis is the ultimate in stupidity.

Ken Irwin
Reply to  Alan Tomalty
November 29, 2018 11:14 pm

My reading of that paper was that they found evidence that absolutely sidelines the “anthropogenic” component as insignificant – but then added all the usual caveats to avoid the wrath of their sponsors / Thermogeddonists.

If you want to get published (or perish) or require research grant money you pretty much have to lie your ass off.

Bill In Oz
November 29, 2018 4:48 pm

““When the Gulf Stream switches on to full strength, Greenland can warm as much as 10 to 15 degrees Celsius within a decade,” Buizert said. “The change is abrupt and massive. As the ocean transfers heat to the north, the rest of the global ocean starts to cool down. Antarctica eventually ‘notices’ the oceans getting colder, but only after 200 years have passed.”

So now the REAL important question is : WHY does the Gulf stream switch in strength ? Any answers from science yet ?

taxed
Reply to  Bill In Oz
November 29, 2018 5:06 pm

Bill ln Oz.
Long term changes to the wind patterns. Because over time this also changes the ocean currents.

Louis Hooffstetter
Reply to  Bill In Oz
November 29, 2018 7:38 pm

“So now the REAL important question is: WHY does the Gulf stream switch in strength?”

Well, duh, because of CO2!
Try to keep up.

Richard M
Reply to  Bill In Oz
November 30, 2018 6:11 am

According to one paper, Thirumalai et al 2018, it is driven by salinity changes. These changes are hypothesized as caused by precipitation changes in the Amazon and West African basins.

So, the next question would be what causes those precipitation changes (solar?). It is pretty obvious that the chain of causality could be quite long. The lack of real understanding of the climate is made obvious when one digs deeper into the subject.

taxed
November 29, 2018 5:19 pm

What would be key to finding what’s going on here is to find out if europe also warmed along with Greenland at the same time. As this would give important clues as to weather the warming was due to a stronger Gulf stream.
Or just simply just a case of the Gulf stream changing course over time because of longer term changes to the wind patterns.

Latitude
Reply to  taxed
November 29, 2018 5:36 pm

So when it speeds up, it makes it warmer….
..and when it slows down, it makes it warmer

you can’t win……

Atlantic circulation is not collapsing — but as it shifts gears, warming will reaccelerate
Date:
July 18, 2018
Source:
University of Washington
Summary:
Data suggest that the recent, rapid slowdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation is not a sign of imminent collapse, but a shift back toward a more sluggish phase. The slowdown implies that global air temperatures will increase more quickly in the coming decades.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180718131128.htm

astonerii
November 29, 2018 5:40 pm

moving at about 37 feet per hour… That there is pretty darned slow messaging.

ATheoK
November 29, 2018 5:45 pm

“The study explains why the climate in Greenland and Antarctica have not exactly aligned over time, according to Oregon State atmospheric scientist Justin Wettstein, a co-author on the study.

“This is the first time that you can so clearly see the nuts and bolts of how the climate works on time scales much longer than our meteorological observations,” Wettstein said. “It allows us to see how Greenland and Antarctica have been connected – spatially and temporally – long before people were running around with thermometers to measure the temperature.”

To reconstruct the climate, the researchers examined ice cores from five different locations in Antarctica and synchronized the dates by looking at layers of volcanic ash. They measured changes in the temperature by analyzing ratios of water isotopes. They then matched the data with well-established dates of the so-called “Dansgaard-Oeschger” events in Greenland ice cores to pinpoint the connection between the hemispheres.”

The auguries have been read and the prophecies cast!
“We know”! They claim.

Though it is very loose in the actual connections.

“These extremely abrupt events happened roughly 25 times during the last ice age, from 100,000 to 20,000 years ago, the researchers say.

“When the Gulf Stream switches on to full strength, Greenland can warm as much as 10 to 15 degrees Celsius within a decade,” Buizert said. “The change is abrupt and massive. As the ocean transfers heat to the north, the rest of the global ocean starts to cool down. Antarctica eventually ‘notices’ the oceans getting colder, but only after 200 years have passed.”

The atmospheric shift in Antarctica’s past has a certain pattern of where it is warmer and where it is colder – a kind of temperature fingerprint, Buizert said.

“What is really neat is that by looking at modern-day observational data we can find an analog for what happened in the past,” Buizert said. “Like forensic detectives, we can compare the temperature fingerprint in the ice cores to the fingerprints of modern-day wind patterns. This is how we identified the culprit – the southern hemisphere westerly winds.”

Antarctica “notices” subpolar Northern Hemisphere changes, 200 years later mind you, through the “southern hemisphere westerly winds”…

Do tell. And those winds, 200 years later, carry ever so much energy that they freeze or thaw a massive continent?

And, now the obligatory doom/disaster claims with nods to anthropogenic global warming. Undoubtedly causing catastrophic doom 200 years hence in Antarctica.

“Observational data and climate models show that the AMOC current today is weakening because of global climate change, thus what happened during the last ice age could happen again.

The researchers say that if the past is a guide for what the future may hold, the weakening of the AMOC likely will decrease the potency of Asian monsoons and billions of people depend on that rain for their livelihood. The changing wind patterns in the southern hemisphere also will lessen the ocean’s ability to take up carbon dioxide, meaning more CO2 emissions will stay in the atmosphere, strengthening the greenhouse effect.

“We know that our world is now warming on average, but the regional changes depend also on how the atmospheric and oceanic circulations respond,” Wettstein said, “and that is something that climate models still disagree on. This study gives us a real-world example of past circulation change that we can use to test and improve our models.”

Obviously, someone believes in magic.

Louis Hooffstetter
Reply to  ATheoK
November 29, 2018 7:41 pm

Yes they do!
http://www.magicc.org/

You can’t make this up…

ATheoK
Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
November 29, 2018 8:01 pm

On target as usual Louis! +100!

Alan Tomalty
Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
November 29, 2018 11:00 pm

I went to the link and chose the 2nd option with the RCP8.5 worst case scenario. i noticed the GCM is the CMIP3 which is the kernel for the MAGIC climate model. That is way out of date since latest generation is CMIP5. Anyway I chose the other default parameters. I looked at temp which was standard stuff of 4.77 C by 2100. The I chose Solar forcing which is change in solar forcing but no indication of that on the graph or title. The graph comes up starting in year 2000 at 0.2W/m^2 then dips to 0.026 in 2008 then goes back up to 0.112 in 2010 then dips again to 0.104 in 2011 and then stays steady at 0.104 until it reaches the year 2100.

NEEDLESS TO SAY I AM NOT IMPRESSED BY THE MAGIC CLIMATE MODEL KERNEL.

bonbon
Reply to  Louis Hooffstetter
November 30, 2018 4:59 am

As the IPCC use it, they never read the MAGICC Legal Notice :
The longer version of the same is: Unless otherwise stated, the software on this site is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, interesting and insightfull, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. THERE IS NO WARRANTY FOR THE SOFTWARE, TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW. EXCEPT WHEN OTHERWISE STATED IN WRITING THE COPYRIGHT HOLDERS PROVIDE THE SOFTWARE “AS IS” WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. THE ENTIRE RISK AS TO THE QUALITY AND PERFORMANCE OF THE SOFTWARE IS WITH YOU.

At least an improvement on Macbeth’s witches brew cited below

Pamela Gray
November 29, 2018 7:11 pm

Hmmm. Haven’t we been discussing this stuff for, like, years? I know Curry has talked about this. So…I don’t think these folks have “discovered” anything we didn’t already know. Anyone who has been reading about oceanic/atmospheric teleconnections know that oceanic cycles are much slower that atmospheric ones which would lead to the proposition that cyclicly, they would beat at the same time occasionally with long spells of discordance in between. Just sayin.

November 29, 2018 8:57 pm

Wow. This reasearch is very interesting, and some astute comments. We have been puzzling over the “bipolar seesaw” forever. One of those tantalizing often on but sometimes off phenomena. This study bears down on the complexity in a testable way. We need to do that a lot more…

Kurt
Reply to  Gordon Lehman
November 29, 2018 10:12 pm

“the ‘bipolar seesaw’”

Is there any other kind?

Steve Reddish
November 29, 2018 10:37 pm

200 years ago the north Atlantic and thus Europe was warming, and had been for at least the prior century. If Antarctica is lagging the north Atlantic by 200 years, it should have been warming strongly for as long as we have been measuring it.

SR

Peta of Newark
November 30, 2018 1:42 am

It’s the same all over, even round here.

In fact, just last week, an unprencedented number of leaves fell off the (Birch( tree in my garden. About the same time I’d rummaging in my deep-freeze and an ancient pack of frozen miniature Pork Pies communicated to me that the leaf-fall was a similar to something that happened to a Chestnut Tree in North Carolina, 11 months previously.

In breathless amazemanet I programmed my super computer to look for other similarities. Using the well renowned search engine (Gloopy Fat Face), I confirmed the findings of the frozen Beef Steak and immediately projected my discovery to the GroneAlot Fact Checking media delivery service.

The response was amazing. Everybody liked it and tittered a lot.
So much so that within hours a troupe of BrownShyte (BS) activists (an off-shoot of the well-known Greenpi55 group) had arrived in my garden.
They scaled the birch tree and chained themselves to the few remaining leaves that were up there.
Seemingly they’d learned from the Snowfake Broadcasting Service that falling leaves are depleting the World’s precious gravity resources and unless something was done to stop the wanton spewing and belching of Our Gravity, soon there’s be none left.
Earth would then float away to an undisclosed and unprecedented disaster (name of ‘Susan’) at seven minutes past nine in the year 2030. More research is needed to find out which day this will occur upon.

Meanwhile, an innocent bird had scratched about in the fallen leaves and found (and eaten) an earthworm. A BS activists yelled at me that this was all the fault of Global Worming Wierding– a hitherto unknown effect of Global Warming that caused worms to over-heat while underground. They thus tried to move to higher ground to escape the heat and then, dizzied by altitude sickness, easy prey for avian critters.
I felt awful, I think earthworms are great.
I knew I just *had* to pay 40% more for my electricity this year to assuage my sin of letting that hapless worm get eaten.
Strangely, my electricity supplier had had the exactly same thought and in fact, has already actioned that thought.
Ho hum

As the bird flew away, it ‘left a message’ on the windscreen of the SUV that the BS activists arrived in.
Oddly enough, the activists seem to believe in ’luck’ and that having a bird ‘leave a message’ on your window is a sure sign of upcoming Good Fortune. Some sort of telephonic messaging activity took place atop my birch tree and in due course, a second BS SUV arrived. A (presumably) BS activist of undecipherable gender leapt out clutching a lottery ticket.
Night descended. (Oh Noes, one more thing we’ll miss when Gravity is Gone!!)

Early next morning though, the tree was abuzz with excitement, a bit like a normal Dawn Chorus but otherwise utter gibberish.

Such was the excitement that one of the BS activists actually fell out of the tree. Obviously some very Cheap & Nasty Chinese steel had been used to manufacture their manacles, or had they been faking the chaining. Slaps own wrist for even thinking either of those things.

Fortunately (?) the World’s Gravity Resource was not yet totally depleted and the descendant BS landed right into the driver’s seat of the original SUV. It sped away.

It returned after lunch. Excitement within my tree was palpable.
The Ticket had won £20,000.

Then, with the help of a £19,995 loan from The Friendly Fish Loan Sharking company and a further £10,000 from someone referred to as ‘Fructose Papa’, the lucky activist has purchased a 2nd hand bottom of the range Crapple Swankfone. Oh joy!
Even my cynical and age hardened heart ‘felt for them’
Couldn’t help but overhear their excited BS chatter as it transpired that the new SwankFone was a replacement for a one that the 3 year old child of another activist had ‘hidden’ in the toilet at Fructose Papa’s ever-so-modest & barely sufficient 15 bedroom Malibu Mansion.
A fellow BS activist had ventured that this was a ‘plea for help’ by the tiny toddler. Said activist was immediately blocked, banned, relegated to the lower ranks of Greenpi55 and given a 16oz beef steak to eat.
Mmmmm, Peta wonders how to join this organisation…….

Forensic examination of the toddlers own Mankysoft Fone revealed that the only person in the world who could remember its name (and which brand of Skunk it smoked) was in fact a similar aged toddler from the DumpoCraptic Republic of Goslow.

They didn’t send each other too many postcards, the second toddler was far too busy mining Unobcolithdium, strangely enough a vital element needed in the construction of Crapple Swankfones……

Pamela Gray
Reply to  Peta of Newark
November 30, 2018 6:39 am

Funny! However, plausible mechanism is the third leg of significance. That atmospheric and oceanic systems have teleconnections on several levels and time scales is plausible.

frankclimate
November 30, 2018 1:52 am

“The AMOC is weakening now because of global warming and meltwater from Greenland.”
This is not the case as this study finds:
https://files.fm/u/4t26exk2#/view/10.1029%402018GL079110.pdf
The stated confidence in something that has a big uncertainty makes the whole statement ( and the paper itself) dubious IMO.

bonbon
November 30, 2018 4:19 am

It is very strange – as the fluid dynamics computer simulations strive to full world models, the more the alchemy seems to boil up. The Bard put it best :

Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn and caldron bubble.
Fillet of a fenny snake,
In the caldron boil and bake;
Eye of newt and toe of frog,
Wool of bat and tongue of dog,
Adder’s fork and blind-worm’s sting,
Lizard’s leg and howlet’s wing,
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.

Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn and caldron bubble,
Cool it with a baboon’s blood,
Then the charm is firm and good.

The charming models, rightly spiced with CO2, Ozone, have caused mighty powerful trouble indeed.

I hope it does’nt come to a Salem II.

bonbon
Reply to  bonbon
November 30, 2018 5:10 am

Just CYA – a Legal notice : This Shakespearian recipe is provided
WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. THERE IS NO WARRANTY FOR THE RECIPE TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW.

There, fixed it.

Ulric Lyons
November 30, 2018 5:42 am

Sounds like a misinterpretation of the polar see-saw effect, which probably ceases during deeper glacial episodes.

whiten
November 30, 2018 3:21 pm

The Day After Tomorrow, take 2.

More elaborate, “scientifically”…don’t cha you worry;
is still 97% certain to be anthropogenic…as always!

See, only NH is in bad freezing possible condition…according to the post card stamps,
when this could only be possible for SH after 200 years from now,,,,
but don’t cha you worry because this wont be so bad then as all this caused by AGW…
but for now there still will be a quite near DAT condition hitting NH.

Straight simple message…north lands of NH please do buckle up, for now, and for quite some time to come ((like for at the very least 2 centuries), according to the postcard stamps here)),
regardless of this being due to AGW or not…

The simple straight forward message…please all living in the north lands of NH do please buckle up…
regardless of this all being due to AGW or not…and keep counting on doing that for some time to come…
at the very least 2 centuries…according to the post card stamps here.

The Day After Tomorrow, take 2…
by the best ever AGW science near you…don’t cha you worry,
is all well covered…all way down;
will be, as always pointed out… only our fault and guilt, blame all on us;
you may very well freeze to death because of man made global warming…
all this already covered here…
by the best ever “science” available to you…by the best AGWers there.

End of message…..

cheers

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