Record Low Temperatures And Snow Blanket The West

Mike Bastasch writes at the Daily Caller:

Daily low temperature records are being smashed in the western half of the U.S. as states from Michigan to California experience wintry weather.

Meteorologist Ryan Maue tweeted Monday that “record low temperatures are covering the map with a major cold front blasting through the Rockies to the Mississippi River.”

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1051849204346306561

 

 

The Boulder area in Colorado also got snow, about 7 inches. Allenspark, just northwest of Boulder, got more than 11 inches of snow, Denver7 News reported.

https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1051848516664844288

However, Americans are experiencing frigid weather as far south as the Rio Grande, Maue tweeted. Parts of the south, including parts of Texas, will still be relatively warm compared to western states.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1051852525907955712

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stock
October 17, 2018 12:33 pm

Whats up with the HadCRUT Sep data still not being posted, I thought they just had several days delay, not weeks into October?

Greg
Reply to  stock
October 17, 2018 1:12 pm

They have to go through 8 million data points manually to make sure none of them physically impossible. 😉

Reply to  Greg
October 17, 2018 1:17 pm

Why don’t they have a computer program to do that?

Stringplayer55
Reply to  Mark Pawelek
October 17, 2018 1:33 pm

Come on, man! If you are making up the temperature record, you don’t want others to come sniffing around looking at computer code that documents how temperatures have been manipulated. If you must avoid scrutiny, there is nothing better than human fudging.

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  Mark Pawelek
October 18, 2018 5:58 am

Because there should be a computer program working

at every single weather station to

make sure none of them [is reporting] physically impossible [data].

Reply to  stock
October 17, 2018 2:08 pm

“Whats up with the HadCRUT Sep data still not being posted”
HADCRUT is usually the last of the majors to appear, late in the month. GISS is just out, though, at 0.75°C for September, down from 0.77 in August. Cooler than any September since 2012, but as warm or warmer than any Sep before that in the record.

HotScot
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 17, 2018 2:49 pm

Nick Stokes

Heh Heh Heh……. In other words, not conforming to the AGW hysteria hypothesis.

But that admission will just stick in your craw.

WXcycles
Reply to  HotScot
October 18, 2018 12:43 am

Ye old Misery Index in a few days time:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/21/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=263.46,43.04,494

The cold ‘snap’ is not going away much after that, either, it stays unusually cold thereafter.

WXcycles
Reply to  WXcycles
October 18, 2018 12:56 am

Oh, btw, have a look at Europe in 5 days from now:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/23/0000Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=18.97,35.87,494

It isn’t just North America that’s getting cold early this year.

Bellman
Reply to  HotScot
October 18, 2018 5:13 am

Not sure what this “AGW hysteria hypothesis” is, but temperatures throughout this year have been pretty close to the trend since the 70s. For GISTEMP 2018 is almost certain to be the 4th warmest year on record, which would mean the last 5 years have been the 5 warmest on record.

Not much sign that global warming is going away unfortunately.

Robert
Reply to  Bellman
October 18, 2018 8:40 am

You know I tried to find out what the amounts were which made all of those years the hottest year ever. I only found about 3 of them mentioned in a story here and an article there but the numbers that I did run across were silly. You know like 0.02 or 0.04 or 0.01. It’s called not being outside the margin of error and demonstrates that the values of meaningless. So if that’s really all that you have to crow about I think that I would just go back in the barn and keep quiet.

Bellman
Reply to  Bellman
October 18, 2018 10:32 am

Robert,

You know I tried to find out what the amounts were which made all of those years the hottest year ever.

I use the data from the GISS website.

You know like 0.02 or 0.04 or 0.01.

Hardly. Prior to 2014 the warmest calendar year was 2010 at 0.70°C. Since then annual anomalies have been:

2014: 0.73°C
2015: 0.87°C
2016: 0.99°C
2017: 0.90°C

2018 is currently averaging about 0.8°C.

You could say that it’s impossible to be certain that 2014 was warmer than 2010, but all years since then have been more than 0.1°C warmer than the previous record..

So if that’s really all that you have to crow about I think that I would just go back in the barn and keep quiet.

Not crowing – no all my doing, and nothing to be proud of it was. I’m just trying to figure out how this implies no warming.

Robert
Reply to  Bellman
October 18, 2018 11:07 am

It’s not that there hasn’t been any warming it’s that it has not been as much as there should have been. And if your values are correct then why were ther values which I sited used in the articles I read. And anyway aren’t values such as 0.1 or even 0.3 still within the margin of error and therefore not significant?

Bellman
Reply to  Bellman
October 19, 2018 4:22 am

Robert,

“And anyway aren’t values such as 0.1 or even 0.3 still within the margin of error and therefore not significant?”

The logic of what you are saying is that every year could be 0.2°C warmer than the previous one and you wouldn’t consider it significant. At the end of the century temperatures would have risen by 20°C.

Robert
Reply to  Bellman
October 19, 2018 9:16 am

100 years you say? Well right now the temperatures seem to be dropping. So let me know when we get to 50 straight years of continually increasing temperatures and then I might start worrying.

Robert
Reply to  Bellman
October 19, 2018 9:26 am

So then all of the arguments which I have read on this website are just so much BS?

Moderator
My email notifications for this thread seem to be intermittent or have stopped.

ironicman
Reply to  Nick Stokes
October 17, 2018 10:26 pm

Nick I think its fair to say cooling has begun, at least in Australia.

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf

This has come about because the STR collapsed last year, so we are back to normal weather.

stock
October 17, 2018 12:35 pm

Its freaking cold in Wisconsin.
In theory, the quiet sun (magnetism and sunspots) shift the polar vortex east and down, swirling the cold air down…..

Another Paul
Reply to  stock
October 17, 2018 12:56 pm

Nope, it’s CO2.

Robert W Turner
Reply to  Another Paul
October 17, 2018 12:59 pm

CO2 of course being the magical heat pump molecule.

Reply to  Robert W Turner
October 18, 2018 12:09 am

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/08/27/agw-gatekeepers-censor-the-co2-climate-debate-by-refusing-to-publish-authors-response-to-criticism/#comment-2441174

Atmospheric CO2, according to the above arguments, must be a breakdown product of unicorn farts.

Why? Because CO2 is the magical molecule:
– it drives both global warming AND global cooling;
– it drives both wilder weather and milder weather;
– since CO2 trends lag atmospheric temperature trends by ~9 months in the modern data record, it drives the past from the future – it is in fact a time-traveller, the Dr. Who of molecules;
– since CO2 trends lag atmospheric temperature trends by ~~800 years in the ice core record, it drives the past from the future there too, proving that Dr. Who-CO2 has been around for hundreds of thousands of years – Who knew!
– and oh yes, I almost forgot: “The Science IS Settled!” … isn’t it? 🙂

Chris Wright
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
October 18, 2018 2:49 am

Yes, according to these idiots there’s nothing CO2 can’t do. It can make things hotter, colder, faster, slower, fatter, thinner, wetter, drier, more windy, less windy etc etc
Of course it’s all poisonous nonsense.
But there’s one thing CO2 really can do: it can drive people mad. That’s the only possible explanation.
Chris

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Another Paul
October 18, 2018 4:27 am

Another Paul – October 17, 2018 at 12:56 pm

Nope, it’s CO2.

Shur nuff you are correct.

With the horrendous increase in atmospheric CO2 …… we also get an horrendous increase in thermal (heat) energy being radiated into outer space by that dastardly CO2.

Ifffen CO2 keeps increasing ….. the children will not remember what an Interglacial Period was like.

John Tillman
October 17, 2018 12:39 pm

Tell me about it. Last of the tomatoes froze this week in NE OR.

Cold and clear at night. Cold and sunny by day. But still, so no wind chill factor.

Persistent high pressure.

DonM
Reply to  John Tillman
October 17, 2018 4:12 pm

Hey John,

A little frost in the valley a few mornings ago, but days are clear and in low 70’s for the last few weeks. (and projected the same for the next week).

This is what fall Oregon weather is supposed to be like.

(don’t tell anybody that we get 5 months of almost no rain, and it still stays green … they’ll want to come here).

ResourceGuy
October 17, 2018 12:40 pm

Sorry, it does not count unless it’s very cold in SF and even then it’s a climate change phenomenon. Just make something up like they do for Noreasters.

Robert W Turner
October 17, 2018 12:58 pm

I’ve noticed that central North America’s temperature generally runs opposite of the global average so I expect the October UAH data to show a big upward spike. And sure enough, this big blob of cold air has allowed warm air to fill in over the Arctic where it will then exit the atmosphere.

MrGrimNasty
Reply to  Robert W Turner
October 17, 2018 1:12 pm

Not sure I follow you exactly, but yes the cold air is displaced from the Arctic which is unsually warm presently, and hopefully much will radiate off into space, causing even more global cooling than the 0.7C we’ve already had in the last 2.5 years.

Alan Robertson
October 17, 2018 1:03 pm

I can’t help but wonder if the this season’s early onset of colder temps could have exacerbated the destructive power of Hurricane Michael. The greater the disparity between colliding cold and warm air masses, the higher the wind speed potential.

Greg
October 17, 2018 1:10 pm

“the Rio Grande River”

Doesn’t Rio already mean river ?

OweninGA
Reply to  Greg
October 17, 2018 2:11 pm

Yes, but we are talking serious Spanglish here, thus since we have no clue of the origins of “Rio” we just consider it part of the proper name and call it a river. We typically do the same with the Sahara.

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  OweninGA
October 17, 2018 9:34 pm

…and in Boulder, Colorado we have an area called Table Mesa.

Darrin
Reply to  Greg
October 18, 2018 7:37 am

Down to the Rio Grande in the article is kind of meaningless, the Rio Grande spans quite a distance north to south. They probably mean on the Texas/Mexico border but that’s sloppy reporting.

As a side, I lived in the Albuquerque area for several years. The Rio Grande isn’t very Grande most the year there. If it wasn’t for sinking in the mud you can frequently cross without getting your ankles wet. Matter of fact they’ll dump water down the Rio Chama to maintain minimum flow in the Rio Grande for an endangered guppy using water pulled from the Colorado. Got to love the insanity.

Al Miller
October 17, 2018 1:37 pm

The gig is up! Move on alarmists

ren
October 17, 2018 1:51 pm

Tonight the wave of frost will attack in the northeast.
comment image

Robert
Reply to  ren
October 17, 2018 10:56 pm

Pardon my ignorance but what does ozone mixing ratio have to do with temperature?

ren
Reply to  Robert
October 18, 2018 7:51 am

Read carefully. Where there is stratospheric intrusion, the amount of ozone increases and the amount of water vapor decreases.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/
In the dry air from the north temperature quickly decreases.

Robert
Reply to  ren
October 18, 2018 9:19 am

Thank you

ren
Reply to  Robert
October 18, 2018 8:03 am

This is now the temperature (C) in the northeast of the US.
comment image

ren
October 17, 2018 2:13 pm

The Beaufort Sea and the Canadian Archipelago quickly freeze.
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r01_Beaufort_Sea_ts_4km.png

Mike Bentley
October 17, 2018 2:14 pm

Golly, great to see my neck of the woods (well, few trees but high desert grassland) featured on WUWT! The picture taken of Hiway 50 is only about 10 miles from my home. Yes, it was cold that morning my backyard weather station registered a low of 16 degrees F. Because we’re at 5K feet, the UV had the roads clear and dry by noon.

Mike

October 17, 2018 2:29 pm

This is funny. We finally go rid of our cold weather and are having unseasonably warm temperatures.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
October 17, 2018 3:04 pm

At least your mosquitoes are gone until May-June.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 18, 2018 12:44 am

Hooray for the warm weather!

We don’t get many mosquitoes in Calgary – it is typically too dry.

We do get lots of other pests to bug us though. There are so many corrupt leftist politicians and civil servants at City Hall with their multitudes of petty laws and rules that we are always in violation of something. Our 30kmph playground zones are a major source of revenue for these crooks, especially at 9:29pm, when it is minus 40 degrees outside.

Then there is our utterly brutal and corrupt police force and the corrupt Courts system that supports it – another manifestation of the Deep Marxist State that Canada has become.

In 2016 Calgary cops shot 10 civilians, whereas the number for other cities our size in Canada was ZERO. Murder charges recommended by ASIRT against one trigger-happy cop were not pursued because the Crown Prosecutor refused to do so. The same brutal cop who killed unarmed and non-threatening young Anthony Heffernan also shot and killed quadriplegic Dave McQueen – what a man!

It should be noted that most of the victims of cop shootings were white – Calgary cops are proudly equally-opportunity murderers.

Calgary cops are typical of such dysfunctional groups – a bunch of brutal sociopaths set the rules, and the rest are too cowardly to clean up their own shop.

Sooner or later somebody is going to completely lose it, and then they will probably retaliate against the wrong people – that is the problem with violence.

In the meantime, the thinking people are leaving Canada for saner countries. My friend Dr. L, an accomplished specialist physician, just moved to Thailand – he has had it with Canada and is completely done with all the Marxist lies.

Did I mention that almost all our civic politicians and civic employees pay lip service to global warming alarmism? We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.

brian stratford
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
October 18, 2018 11:31 am

Thank goodness someone tels oit like it is.

Stuart Lynne
October 17, 2018 2:43 pm

This is either just weather or possibly some of that “extreme” weather that results from increased CO2!

🙂

October 17, 2018 2:55 pm

Apparently they were harvesting wheat in the snow in Dakota:

https://www.iceagenow.info/harvesting-wheat-in-the-snow/

Did this happen anywhere else?

Dave N
Reply to  Phil Salmon
October 17, 2018 3:50 pm

The photo shows harvesters and a couple of trucks; that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re actually harvesting at that particular moment.

I used to be friends with local farmers (PS: I’m in Australia) who grew wheat and they wouldn’t even harvest if there had been even the slightest light rain, because if the wheat is wet, it is *very* prone to mould once collected.

John Tillman
Reply to  Dave N
October 17, 2018 4:02 pm

Dave,

Some soft white wheat ranchers in my area have been known to water down harvested grain to increase its weight.

John Dilks
Reply to  John Tillman
October 17, 2018 5:52 pm

John,

The Grain elevators in Iowa test the moisture content of each load and adjust accordingly.

Pamela Gray
Reply to  John Dilks
October 18, 2018 6:15 pm

Lordy! Watered down wheat can become dangerous! It becomes wheat flambé!

John Tillman
Reply to  John Dilks
October 18, 2018 6:17 pm

Pamela,

Better than wheat dust, which becomes a fuel-air explosive.

John Tillman
Reply to  John Dilks
October 18, 2018 9:31 pm

John,

Iowa wheat production is insignificant. It’s not a top ten state. Dunno where it comes in, but way out of the top.

My county is the top wheat producer in the country.

CountryBoy
Reply to  Dave N
October 17, 2018 5:05 pm

Not true at all. I grew up on a major wheat farm in the Midwest, approximately 6000 acres. If the wheat’s got to get in, you’ll cut it no matter what. I cut wheat once during a major thunderstorm which spawned a tornado that hit my harvester. Fortunately, it was a small twister, and only lifted the back end of the machine and spun it about 160 degrees. My grandfather was screaming at me on the CB radio to “turn around!”, but I thought he meant turn the harvester around, so I was going to finish cutting my swath, then turn… he meant turn my head and look behind me, as there was a twister approaching.

As for mold, it’s a simple matter to put the grain in the silos and run the ventilation fans to dry it out. In fact, it’s pretty much a given that the majority of the wheat you cut will be going into silos, since it’ll still be a bit green and has to have its moisture content reduced prior to taking it to the grain elevator, or you get docked. The grain harvested late in the season, though, is typically already dry enough and can be trucked directly to the elevator.

Pamela Gray
Reply to  CountryBoy
October 18, 2018 6:23 pm

Our family ranch was equipped with 3 Sears and Roebuck silos. No ventilation fans. So they had to put it in dry or not put it in at all.

John Tillman
Reply to  Pamela Gray
October 18, 2018 6:33 pm

Our grain elevators not only had ventilation, but we sprayed fungicide and herbicide on the wheat before storage.

Back when you got paid for storage, my dad stored grain thus treated for decades.

Joel O'Bryan
October 17, 2018 3:01 pm

Good old fashioned winter NH winter coming. Lotsa snow. Lotsa cold.
Blizzards in Chicago. Mountains of plowed snow in Buffalo.
A typical brief January thaw for New England before plunging again. Snow in the South. Rain SoCal. And Beautiful golf and shorts running weather in So Arizona, with snow in the high mountains.
The only questions are going to be how expensive is Natural Gas this winter, and heating fuel in the NorthEast.

Weather.

Did I mention its going to be golf weather in So Az?

HotScot
October 17, 2018 3:02 pm

I can’t help but wonder if these early cold spells are a precursor to what we sceptics wish for to shut the alarmists up, but don’t actually want; a descent into another mini ice age (and hopefully no worse) which has been predicted by a number of sources, to begin in 2019/20.

If that’s the case, the alarmists have wasted 40 years of mankind’s resources, money and political effort on a wild goose chase.

I just hope I’m still around to torture them with the reality of their religious fervour.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  HotScot
October 17, 2018 4:50 pm

“I can’t help but wonder if these early cold spells are a precursor to what we sceptics wish for to shut the alarmists up, but don’t actually want; a descent into another mini ice age (and hopefully no worse) which has been predicted by a number of sources, to begin in 2019/20.”

Have a look at NH anomalies to dampen your ardour Mr Hot and well done on your pathetic dig at Nick above. (sarc)

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

Linda Goodman
October 17, 2018 3:49 pm

Gorebull warblers claim all unusual weather is caused by too much carbon dioxide, so they’ve got this covered. And thanks to geo-engineering they can manufacture all kinds of unusual, terrifying and deadly weather to blame on ‘climate change’. But wait, it’s said in all the Official Publications that they’re only THINKING about using geo-engineering, and only to help MITIGATE ‘climate change’. And why would they lie?

R.S. Brown
October 17, 2018 4:00 pm

Ch- Ch- Changes.

Turn and face the strange ch-ch-changes !

Bruce Cobb
October 17, 2018 4:16 pm

Ah, Fall – the leaves become a kaleidoscope of colors, the sounds of flocks of geese flying, our clocks go back on Standard time, and we go from Globaloney Warming to Climate ka-ching Change. Life is good.

MarkW
October 17, 2018 4:43 pm

I would normally agree with those who would point out that this is weather not climate.
That is, if I hadn’t been force to listen to the caterwauling from the usual suspects about how this summer’s heat wave was proof of global warming, plus the claim that hurricanes and other forms of weather are now worse because of the same.

Jeff Alberts
October 17, 2018 5:58 pm

Was balmy in the Pacific Northwest today, hit 70 in Mt Vernon, WA. Not a record, but felt good.

yarpos
October 17, 2018 7:12 pm

One of the usual suspects will soon appear saying this is “these extremes are just what should expect due to climate change” They think we dont remember

NFlaMark
October 17, 2018 7:20 pm

Actually the cooling is not be a surprise to anyone following Weatherbell.com. They have been predicting this cooling for months along with a very cold December-February. More impressive, they also called the intensity of hurricane Michael days before anyone else had it as a Cat 4. I have 2 homes, each 40 miles on opposite sides of Michaels eye, Weatherbell nailed the forecast along. Hopefully this isn’t off topic, I haven’t had electricity and Internet for a whiledue to the storm.

Robert
October 17, 2018 10:46 pm

So I was in a, for lack of a better work, discussion with someone regarding the lack of sufficient temperature increase to conform to the theory and predictions of global warming. This person pointed out to me that the sun’s output was down and that that accounted of the departure for expected temperatures. I did not think that by itself this difference was sufficient as an explanation. Was I in error? They went on and on about how a difference of 0.5 was significant but when I asked could not tell me 0.5 what.
I really enjoy these kinds of discussions but I like to have the facts straight. I thought that I had saved some papers or articles or references but was unable to locate them. Would someone please help me out on this?

Robert
October 17, 2018 10:46 pm

So I was in a, for lack of a better work, discussion with someone regarding the lack of sufficient temperature increase to conform to the theory and predictions of global warming. This person pointed out to me that the sun’s output was down and that that accounted of the departure for expected temperatures. I did not think that by itself this difference was sufficient as an explanation. Was I in error? They went on and on about how a difference of 0.5 was significant but when I asked could not tell me 0.5 what.
I really enjoy these kinds of discussions but I like to have the facts straight. I thought that I had saved some papers or articles or references but was unable to locate them. Would someone please help me out on this?

bit chilly
Reply to  Robert
October 18, 2018 12:24 am

Robert, i believe Dr Leif Svalgaard is the man to refer them to. According to Dr Svalgaard total solar irradiance variation in the last 400 years is too small to have had a major effect on earths temperature.The solar cycle variations are only enough to alter the temperature on earth by 0.07c ,so the person you have been arguing is wrong according to current understanding.

You may ask why i reference the work of Dr Svalgaard and his team.Given he and they are the only people to make an accurate testable (it passed with flying colours) climate related prediction (solar cycle prediction) that allowed a very expensive satellite to remain in orbit i would suggest there is no better reference on this topic.
https://leif.org/research/Climate-Change-My-View.pdf
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/09/how-consensus-science-blew-the-solar-cycle-24-prediction-which-turned-out-to-be-the-lowest-in-100-years/

Robert
Reply to  bit chilly
October 18, 2018 1:07 am

Thank you. I have read his post and looked up some of the links which were posted. I just could not remember his name. I read so much that sometimes I am not sure if I remembered things correctly. I felt quite sure that I had not forgotten the information regarding the sun. This person turned out to be one of those who decided to ignore inconvenient facts and I think started to even make up some of their own.

Bob Weber
Reply to  Robert
October 18, 2018 5:11 pm

Robert the person was generally correct about low solar activity causing the temperature drop.

I am a researcher in this area and have learned how insolation and TSI drive sea surface temperatures.

The net change in SST varies by much more than 0.07 from solar cycle TSI, see SC21 & 22; and unless there’s a big dropoff, net SST change from this cycle will also exceed 0.07:

http://climate4you.com/images/SunspotsMonthlySIDC%20and%20HadSST3%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1960%20WithSunspotPeriodNumber.gif

Leif Svalgaard’s solar predictions are strictly about the magnitude of upcoming solar cycle, which has very important implications across the board.

The rate in dropoff in SST vs TSI since 2016, compared to the similar analog relationship during the prior solar cycle 23 decline:

comment image

The image upper left panel black box ratio is actually within 5% of the red box tuning period ratio, one solar cycle later. The climate is deterministic and predictable because of this, because the sun drives the ocean temperature via insolation, via TSI.

Robert
Reply to  Bob Weber
October 18, 2018 6:41 pm

Thank you for responding.
They were saying that 0.5W change in TSI would be a significant change. They refused to specify the units so I am assuming that the valus they gave me were in W/m squared. On one of the graphs it has 0.527C/W. So a change of 0.26 C would not be that significant. That would be within the margin of error correct?
Some days my mind is sharp as a tack and other days I struggle to remember what day it is.

Bob Weber
Reply to  Robert
October 18, 2018 7:39 pm

Robert, let me clarify how this works. It’s easy.

I empirically derived during similar conditions a solar cycle ago that HadSST3 responds to SORCE TSI at nominally 0.5C/W/yr. It’s based on the annual change in TSI, in either direction, plus or minus, warming or cooling. Previous solar cycles show a similar relationship (down arrows in my graphic).

The result in my graphic for the ratio in this solar cycle decline is within ~5% of that.

A 0.26C change is actually very significant. The HadSST3 data margin of error is 0.03C. My derived factor used for 2016 predicted the SST3 change within that margin.

The net change for a solar cycle depends on level, timing and duration of the sun’s activity.

Robert
Reply to  Bob Weber
October 18, 2018 7:59 pm

I appreciate your patience and explanation. I am not familiar with the specific data set which you use but I thought that since most thermometers were graduated to.5 degrees that it would not be possible to have a margin of error that small.
Now my experience with calculating margins of error is in the field of Chemistry not climate science. Are thermometers calibrated in the hundredth of a degree?

Robert
Reply to  Bob Weber
October 18, 2018 8:30 pm

I guess that I have just one question really. Has the change in total solar irradiance been enough to account for the pause in increasing temperatures? This was the main point in the discussion that I was having. I know that reduced TSI will have an effect upon temperatures but has it been enough to account for all of the lack of increase.

Bob Weber
Reply to  Bob Weber
October 18, 2018 9:23 pm

Has the change in total solar irradiance been enough to account for the pause in increasing temperatures?

Yes. Notice this MET reported research says

“Over the period of 1998-2013, IPO forcing is dominant, whilst solar forcing has a greater influence over the sub-period between 2003 and 2011.”

IPO forcing here to me is misunderstood misattribution of the solar warming from rising and high TSI, except for the 2003-2011 period. That ‘sub-period’ is characterized by the low TSI regime at the end of SC23 going into SC24 to 2011, as shown in my graphic below in monthly SORCE TSI, F10.7cm, and v2 SSN.

The dividing flat line in red is my solar ocean warming-cooling threshold, derived in 2014/15, many years before the MET research, shows 2003-2011 solar activity under the line:

comment image

All it takes is several years of increasing TSI into the cycle maximum (the real forcing behind the IPO) to push sea surface temperatures up by ~0.6C or more during a solar cycle before they fall with TSI into the minimum as they are now doing:

comment image

Reply to  Robert
October 21, 2018 3:04 am

Hi Bob,

Without going in to details, I think you are on the correct track.

Here is some history on the subject of imminent global cooling.

BTW, I hope we are both wrong – humanity and the environment suffer during cooling periods.

Best, Allan

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/17/oddly-quiet-sun-3-weeks-without-sunspots/#comment-2407423

[excerpt]

In 2002, I predicted that natural global cooling would commence by 2020 to 2030, in an article published 1Sept2002 in the Calgary Herald. I am now leaning closer to 2020 for cooling to start, possibly even earlier. I hope to be wrong. Humanity and the environment suffer during cooling periods.

I suggest that it is long past time for society to prepare for the possibility of moderate global cooling. This would involve:
1. Strengthening of electrical grid systems, currently destabilized by costly, intermittent green energy schemes;
2. Reduce energy costs by all practical means.
3. Development of contingency plans for food production and storage, should early frosts impact harvests;
4. Develop contingency plans should vital services be disrupted by cold weather events – such as the failure of grid power systems, blocking of transportation corridors, etc.
5. Improve home insulation and home construction standards.

The current mania over (fictitious) catastrophic global warming has actually brewed the “perfect storm” – energy systems have been foolishly compromised and energy costs have been needlessly increased, to fight imaginary warming in a (probably) cooling world.

I suggest this is the prudent path for Western societies to follow. It has no downside, even if global cooling does not occur, and considerable upside if moderate cooling does commence.

Best, Allan

New Little ICE Age Instead of Global Warming?
Theodor Landscheidt,
First Published May 1, 2003 Research Article PAYWALLED
https://doi.org/10.1260/095830503765184646
Article information

Abstract
Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8°C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the secular Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove ‘skilful’ as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct, as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions
Nils-Axel Mörner
NOT PAYWALLED – EXCELLENT LIST OF REFERENCES
Natural Science, 2015, 7, 510-518
Published Online November 2015 in SciRes. http://www.scirp.org/journal/ns
http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ns.2015.711052
How to cite this paper: Mörner, N.-A. (2015) The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions.
Natural Science, 7, 510-518. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ns.2015.711052

Abstract

By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics: the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behaviour over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the centre of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. During the previous grand solar minima—i.e. the Spörer Minimum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809-1821)—the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.

ren
October 17, 2018 11:20 pm

The surface temperature in region Nino 1 + 2 is important for circulation in winter in North America.
comment image

October 18, 2018 12:46 am

Hooray for the warm weather!

We don’t get many mosquitoes in Calgary – it is typically too dry.

We do get lots of other pests to bug us though. There are so many corrupt leftist politicians and civil servants at City Hall with their multitudes of petty laws and rules that we are always in violation of something. Our 30kmph playground zones are a major source of revenue for these crooks, especially at 9:29pm, when it is minus 40 degrees outside.

Then there is our utterly brutal and corrupt police force and the corrupt Courts system that supports it – another manifestation of the Deep Marxist State that Canada has become.

In 2016 Calgary cops shot 10 civilians, whereas the number for other cities our size in Canada was ZERO. Murder charges recommended by ASIRT against one trigger-happy cop were not pursued because the Crown Prosecutor refused to do so. The same brutal cop who killed unarmed and non-threatening young Anthony Heffernan also shot and killed quadriplegic Dave McQueen – what a man!

It should be noted that most of the victims of cop shootings were white – Calgary cops are proudly equally-opportunity murderers.

Calgary cops are typical of such dysfunctional groups – a bunch of brutal sociopaths set the rules, and the rest are too cowardly to clean up their own shop.

Sooner or later somebody is going to completely lose it, and then they will probably retaliate against the wrong people – that is the problem with violence.

In the meantime, the thinking people are leaving Canada for saner countries. My friend Dr. L, an accomplished specialist physician, just moved to Thailand – he has had it with Canada and is completely done with all the Marxist lies.

Did I mention that almost all our civic politicians and civic employees pay lip service to global warming alarmism?

Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
October 18, 2018 12:52 am

moderator – please delete this double-post. Thank you.

WXcycles
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
October 18, 2018 1:11 am

But at least you can all be potheads now. Progress!

Reply to  WXcycles
October 20, 2018 2:05 am

Yesterday (Friday 19Oct2018) at about 4pm my young daughter and I were biking up the bicycle path beside northbound (1-way) Edmonton Trail when a Calgary Police van with sirens blaring drove SOUTHbound on the bike path, forcing my child to emergency-crash onto the adjacent grass verge. Half a block away, the southbound lanes of Edmonton Trail were not that busy.

This cop stunting is highly irregular. I have never seen or heard of this happening before. However, it does coincide with the legalization of marijuana in Canada.

My analysis is that the two cops in the van were vaping grass or hash and had a bad case of the munchies, and were in a big rush to get to the donut shop.

Like global warming, “there can be no other explanation”. 🙂

David Hart
October 18, 2018 4:53 am
TDBraun
October 18, 2018 8:45 am

Exactly what climate change theory predicts.
Move along…

Bob Weber
October 18, 2018 7:14 pm

The cold temperatures are from gradually lower solar activity since the end of SC24 TSI peak in 2015, since March 2016 when daily TSI fell below my solar ocean warming threshold, leading to a current deficit in incoming solar energy, and since Feb 2017, when 2017-2018 Greenland ice growth commenced in earnest as my long-term F10.7cm running average fell below my warming/cooling 120 sfu/day threshold. The cold is spreading fast as the low TSI sun quiets even more.

The bluer this image gets, the lower the TSI goes, and the colder it gets:

comment image

TSI has down-trended during the last few solar rotations. The current bright sunspot, with F10.7cm of 70, bumped up TSI very slightly but not much. It, with the photospheric plasma in the sun’s RH quadrant, will roll out of sight early next week leaving a much bluer dimmer sun in this image, taking TSI down with it, and along with that more spreading and deepening cold, snow and ice.

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