Guest essay by Eric Worrall
You would think after past embarrassments climate scientists would have learned not to trust model predictions that snowfall will soon be a thing of the past.
Global warming melts hopes of a white Christmas in Ireland
A leading climatologist has some bad news for snow-lovers
By Nick Bramhill
14:31, 12 NOV 2017
The prospect of Ireland waking up to a white Christmas is becoming more and more unlikely every year, according to a leading climatologist.
Prof John Sweeney said that Ireland can expect increasingly warmer winters due to global warming, resulting in less snowfall in the traditionally coldest months of the year.
…
He said: “The projections are for Ireland to warm by 1C by mid-Century, and we’re looking at both warmer summers and winters.
“We’ll always get snow in the uplands and mountains, but we’ll start to see less snow in the lowland areas in the coming years, and that means we’ll get fewer and fewer white Christmases. Let’s put it this way, if I were a betting man I wouldn’t be putting any money on there being snowfall on Christmas Day. It’s getting less likely each year.”
…
Read more: http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/global-warming-melts-hopes-white-11509570
We no longer seem to have so many of the kind of special moments when scientists and advocates predict snow will end in 10 years, but even the middle of the century is drawing uncomfortably close to being falsifiable on a reasonable timescale.
Of course, climate scientists can trot out predictions that global warming will cause heavier snowfalls when the inevitable blockbuster winter hits, to demonstrate they were right all along.
Update (EW): h/t Michael Jankowski – bookies have just slashed the odds of an Irish White Christmas in Dublin, with experts predicting one of the coldest winters ever.
Since we have been reliably informed that planet Niburu will collide with Earth on November 21, 2017 (having failed to collide with Earth on October 21, October 31, and November 7,etc.) and will cause another Mass Extinction Event, we will never get to experience the horrors of Global Warming, er… Climate Change…, er more peer-reviewed Climate Science.
Is /sarc necessary?
Snow is getting rarer in the UK. Here is a Met Office plot:
Sorry, here
Nick .
Of course there is less snow .Did you forget that the experts warned the world that we were heading for a mini ice age in the 1960s and 1970s . .And then the climate warmed but there is absolutely no proof that CO2 is to blame
.Natural climate variability Nick you know this but you are to stubborn to admit it
Nick, you thingy you posted stops at 2010…..Dec 2010 was a major snowstorm….and Jan 2016 was this
Britain Bracing for Extreme Winter, as Torrential Rain turns to Snow
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/11/britain-bracing-for-extreme-winter-as-torrential-rain-turns-to-snow/
BTW Telegraph is running the same blink you’re running…../snark
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/12/often-does-snow-fall-uk-getting-rarer/
I’ve got a question about that blink…..if the average is 4….do they show it as 2 to 4…or 4 to 6?
…and who in their right mind would complain about 2 less days of snow in a month?
Latitude,
Strange, I don’t remember any snow in southern England in January 2016.
(Check link)
Ah, a Daily Express forecast, say no more.
Also,
The chart was for January, so included the cold and snowy January 2009.
Plus they are 30 year averages.
Dear Nick,
The discussion is about Irish snow. That map you put up leaves out Ireland.
BTW I believe this clown Mr Sweeney comes from Glasgow and is a Professor of something or other at what used to be Maynooth seminary for training priests.
Not too surprising he is now Ireland’s “go to” global warmist in line with the present Pope who is the head of the new Gaia worshipping religion.
Interestingly that for England at least, whilst snow has become less common during winter as a whole, the 30 year averages do show a slight increase
I suspect this is mainly due to December 2010.
Here are the maps for winter.
There seems to be little change between the 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 periods, but there was more snow during 1961-1990. I suspect the bleak winter of 62/63 might be a factor.
My conclusion is that snow in the UK is very unpredictable, and isn’t the best guide to how the climate is changing.
You lost me now Nick. What are you trying to communicate? Why this country? Why this period?
When and where did a successful politician (notably her anti-coal policies) dissolve the local left/labour union dynasty? To the point domestic coal-fires were condemned at least in urban zones, in favour of more CACA friendly natural gas? When should the effects of these policies be observable?
Didn’t she go far enough? More is needed? And to do what exactly in Cacaverse? To increase:
1) Local snow/sleet fall?
2) Unfavourable conditions for solar and wind energy supply?
3) Energy prices?
4) ‘Eat Or Heat’ proportion of the local population?
Why on Earth UK’s left-green dimension today pushes the policies of their most openly hated female politician? To the point of voluntarily freeze-starving their own potential electorate? Even Maggie herself seemed to caution against it.
I think if snow fades in Britain, including Ulster, the Ireland will go the same way. I’m not advocating more snow – just observing what is happening.
Well, I’m also trying to observe what’s happening. And your contribution has indeed opened my eyes:
If CACA compliant carbon dioxide reduction policies haven’t produced desired average outside air temperature moderating effects even in the planet’s CACA enterprising country, why should they work any better elsewhere?
So, I’m skeptical, but not categorical. I remain willing to give Catastrophic Anthropogenic Conjecture Alarm faith another change. Since skeptics are repeatedly asked for ideas, I have now one. I’m proposing a smaller scale CO2 reduction pilot project:
All publicly funded multinational CACA junkets and CACA establishments should be closed as of 31 December 2017. We can calculate how much it would reduce CO2 emissions. The local weather forecasters can then be assigned to measure the outside air values, calculate anomalies to the new reference point and why not also to their own forecasts. They can report the results locally annually. The pilot project can be closed on 31 December 2047. Should be easy to organise without further ado. After all, the CACA science is already settled. Right? In 2048 we should have actual figures how much the average outside air temperature and composition has been affected. It would give far more solid basis for the policies year 2100 or so.
Nick Stokes
Having lived through the periods in your charts I can say that the second period was preferable to the first, and the third was preferable to the second. Some may say pests survive better in mild winters but so do humans, unless you consider tham as pests then it’s a good thing.
Dr Sweeney, a leading climatologist, during his research found the climatologist playbook from 2007. We heard this same sort of crap 10 years ago. I’m embarrassed for him.
A leading climatologist, Robert Kennedy Jr., predicted no more snow in DC in 2008. In Feb 2010, they set a new record for snow.
There seem to be no consequences for what leading climatologists say. With no consequences, they will say anything.
Didn’t Al Gore make a prediction/forecast on this subject as well that didn’t turn out to be true? But he made so many of them that he doesn’t remember.
Where I have lived most of my life in New Zealand in the North Island we have never had snow at Christmas but then again we have never had snow . The snow falls on the ranges in the winter around but does not stay long .From the top of my hill I can see the volcanic cones in the central North Island and Mount Taranaki covered in snow .Why do these people make such predictions and then when another colder climate cycle begins they will duck for cover .The reduction of snowfall around the world has been a continuous chant from warmists for the last 30 years .
We have our career climate scientists here also. In fact, we have been getting a plenty of propaganda from the media lately. We were seduced by the then EEC over 40 years ago, now whenever they say jump, we say, “how high!!”
Snow on Christmas day is and has always been, in my life time anyway, about 60 to 1 as we’d only get snow once or twice a year and it has to fall, I think half an ins, in Dublin airport on Christmas day. You could have 3″ some other part of the country, or 3″ snow in the airport from the previous day and no deal! So, it’s always been a stupid bet.
I grew up in the 60s when snow and frost was somewhat more common. Every few years we could skate on the canal. The 70s were less cold until about 79 when we had a very sharp frost one night and that was the last time I walked on Ice until recent years. The following year we had the biggest snow Iv’e ever seen. There were snow drifts beside the beach in Dublin bay.
For the next 30 years, we’d get snow from time to time, but my kids grew up never seeing ice they could walk on.
The cold winters returned in Oct 31st 2008 and the last heavy snow, fell March 31st 2011.
In January 2010 came the first ice that My now adult kids could walk on. We now live in the midlands where there’s lots of lakes. All frozen, 5 – 6″ thick.
The following November, the frost returned, steadily got colder. One day in mid Dec, the temp never got above -10 all day The ice on the lakes was thick enough to drive cars on. But, in this age of safety and fear few people would even skate on it.
Back to normal winters since, but I’m still hoping for a bit of warming!!
I’m wondering just who decided we should have cold months in winter? I hate that tradition!
Got to agree with you Randy – I as wondering when Winter became a tradition instead of a season too!
A model that does not prophesize the end of the world, but merely the end of white Christmases future. Progress. Positive progress, I think.
Some facts please. How often has each city in Ireland had a “white Christmas”?
According to the linked article below, the answer to that question is 17.
http://www.thejournal.ie/snow-ireland-facts-723323-Dec2012/
No. The answer is 42. Always. Ask Doug Adams.
I was in Tunis, London and Australia circa Feb-Mar2005.
Cold at 10C in Tunis; freezing cold and snow in London; nice and warm in Sydney & Cairns.
Warm is best.
Warmer is better.
I predict more or possibly less snow depending on the weather. This will happen sooner or possibly later, and it may have already happened.
Hmmm…
For global temps to warm 1C from current levels by 2050 would require a warming trend of around +0.3C/decade starting from…tomorrow….
That’s impossible because the AMO and PDO will both be in their respective 30-year cool cycles from around 2020 (global temps always fall when this happens), moreover, the weakest solar cycle since 1790 starts from 2021 and the one after that from 2032 will be the weakest since 1645 and the start of a 50~75 year Grand Solar Minimum event.
By 2050, it’s highly likely global temps will be below late 1970’s levels (the last time the PDO/AMO 30-yr cool cycles were winding down), combined with additional cooling effects from the Grand Solar Minimum event..
Samurai,
Where can I get charts of what you’re saying? Is that possible? Thx.
People won’t know what freezing their ass off is…unless they live in Chicago.
One of Bill Gate’s holding companies just bought 25,000 acres 50 miles west of Phoenix to build a futuristic city where real people will buy condos, rent apartments etc. It near Tonopah, Arizona off I-10.
It’ll get water from the Central Arizona Project canal from the Colorado River. It’ll have reliable 24/7 grid power to run the ACs from the PaloVerde Nuclear Plant. I’m sure they put in solar PV, but the hot summer nights means that’s just a virtue signaling sales gimmick.
They’ll need lots of both water and 24/7 electricity because it is hot as a MF out there in the summer. But apparently, the 2nd richest man in the world is not too concerned about CAGW or the Colorado River running out of water as alarmists claim will happen. Bill Gates is a pretty smart man and well connected to sound engineering teams who obviously understand alarmist climate change is a hoax.
I won’t miss it not snowing and I live in Atlanta, GA. Snow is over rated.
If the climate continues of its present course of delivering snow regularly then kids of the future will never get to know what an “end of snow” prediction even looks like.
Well, it’s the middle of November 2017. We’ve had our first snowfall in my kingdom. I have photos, Always do that. Settles idiot arguments. According to the Almanac, we’ll have snow the end of the month, then snow in December with clearing at that month’s end. Looks like a normal winter to me. Lookin’ forward to it.
Haven’t had snow in central Indiana but I ran into a wintery mix at the higher elevations along the PA Turnpike week before last. It’s looking like we may get a good snow before we have a chance to mulch most of the leaves this year. Wednesday and Thursday last week I was down in the vicinity of Macon, GA and used the heater in the truck sleeper both nights. Miserable cold rain almost all day Thursday.
Mr. Sweeney works in the Geography department of Maynooth University and like Mr. Mann likes to claim credit by association with the Nobel prose for Climate science. They are on a recruitment drive at the moment to attract people to their “climate science” course at the moment – target audience: middle class female SJW wannabes.
https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/people/john-sweeney
He is also the president of president of An Taisce which is the leading NIMBY organisation in Ireland which really won’t be happy until everyone lives in the countryside lives in lime washed cottages and doffs their caps to their urban betters as they pass by. In a country where agriculture particularly where grass fed dairy and beef farming is a large contributor this organisation is against cow farts.
http://web.archive.org/web/20050214233020/http://antaisce.org/campaigns/index.html?id=63
The Maynooth geography departments main claim to fame in recent years has been the promotion of socialism in the media by it’s members.
Conference: Local Resistance, Global Crisis: developing communities of solidarity and Left Politics for the 21st Century
https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/news-events/conference-local-resistance-global-crisis-developing-communities-solidarity-and-left-politics-21st
As has been answered in the links in the comments above it is uncommon that snow falls in Ireland at sea level in December and is more likely that such events happen in January and February. They also don’t like to reference historical weather events committed to folk memory but concentrate on rain events that caused flooding – which is a problem because the natural flood plains (overflow) for rivers have been build on and the water has to go somewhere. . . . high rainfall is NOT an unusual event in Ireland historically.
The 1839 hurricane.
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/the-calm-before-the-big-wind-of-1839-was-particularly-eerie-1.3257684
The February 1947 severe weather event (lasted a month)
https://www.independent.ie/life/remembering-the-great-irish-blizzard-of-february-1947-34482677.html
Footage: Dublin 1954 Storm damage, flooding of North Strand, Fairview, East Wall…
https://getoutofthatgarden.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/footage-dublin-1954-storm-damage-flooding-of-north-strand-fairview-east-wall/
The Irish don’t care if they get less snow or if it’s 2C warmer in the winter. Hell, they’ll probably raise a pint or two to the possibility! Now, if you want to get an Irishman’s attention, try convincing them that whiskey production is seriously threatened….
In Sweden, there is no trend in snow cover at Christmas day morning.
Data at 13 locations , from north to south, from 1900 to 2000.
Only in swedish, sorry.
I think the guy picked Christmas because it almost never snows then anyway so was a safe bet!
We’ve had significant snow over winter in:
2002/3
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
However the bulk of the snow in those winters fell in January or February, well after Christmas!!
Even in 2009/10 winter it starting snowing in late October and there was still snow covering the lawn in the following march. We had -20 in mid January. Bit despite that we had no snow on Christmas day, it was actually quite mild.
I can’t ever recall it snowing on Christmas day in my entire life, not even growing up in the 70’s. It always seems to be boringly mild!
Unless the seasons have shifted over time, I’m thinking the whole white Christmas thing was made up by the bookies to make lots of money 😉
And the climate scam was made up by Al Gore for the same reason.
Don’t know about Ireland but in the UK it used to be just one flake of snow (even if sleety) falling at one of the UKMO’s weather centres. They have gone now.
Useless as a metric for long term memory, where, lets face it it needs to be laying.
Hence zero memories here despite some stats.
One of the most amazing, sometimes charming, set of comments EVA. I almost fell off my breakfast chair laughing. Anecdote after anecdote after anecdote (mainly). I nominate the inverted Mercator projection as the very best comment but really it’s hard to choose. Christmas must be just around the corner.
The local ski hill (Limone) which normally doesn’t open until late December already has close to a metre of snow up top and 35cm at the bottom and os planning to open on Friday which I think is unprecedented, certainly in the 15 years we’ve been here.
Meanwhile this morning we woke up to this, 370m elevation behind Sanremo in NW Italy:
Where’s my link https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10156064962618296&set=a.70619053295.96489.675903295&type=3
`If I were a betting man…’? The good professor IS a betting man. He’s willing to bet fifty trillion of other people’s money on the output of unvalidated climate models. That’s a heck of a wager.