Guest opinion by Vijay Jayaraj
As a citizen of a third-world country, I bring a different perspective about climate change from that held by most people in wealthy countries. While they fret about possible tenth-of-a-degree changes in global average temperature, I think about how a billion of my fellow Indians and I will obtain the food, water, health care, and other things we need that our richer neighbors take for granted.
So we puzzle when we observe climate alarmists on a scaremongering crusade following the recent hurricanes in the Atlantic. They saw hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria as providing another opportunity to blame climate change. Indeed, they tend to hold human-driven climate change guilty for the occurrence of any natural disaster.
But this is common only in the mainstream media. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a leading authority on climate-change science and policy, admits in its assessment reports that there is no significant increase in the frequency of natural disasters.
Climatologists too were quick to point out that hurricane frequency in the past four decades has no increasing trend, contrary to claims by the climate alarmism propagandists.
In addition, anyone who respects data will agree that there were major hurricanes before the climate change narrative even began.
Nevertheless, weirder claims have been made about the negative impact of anthropogenic global warming on the food security of third-world countries.
But the state of the climate in some developing countries like India paints a very contrasting, indeed a promising, picture.
With its large and rapidly growing economy, India plays a key role in the global economy. Climatic effects can have a huge impact on the country’s large agricultural sector and eventually on the lives of a billion people.
Monsoon rains are the lifeline for crops in India. The monsoons have remained stable over the past 15 years and have shown no adverse changes in pattern.
Most recent research shows that monsoon rains in the past 15 years have ended a 50-year dry spell that was prevalent over North-Central India. Since 2002, rainfall has increased by 1.34 mm per decade since 2002.
Strongly sustained by these rains, and buoyed by the inventions in agricultural science and technology, the country’s agricultural production increased dramatically. For example, cereal yield increased 58 percent from 1990 to 2014, rising from 1687 to about 2662 pounds/acre.
The food production index (changes in the production of food crops in a given year relative to a base year) more than doubled, from 69.81 in 1990 to 145.1 in 2014. India’s total food grain production in the year 2015–16 recorded a massive 252.23 million tonnes, marginally higher than the previous year.
This should not surprise anyone who has a remote interest in the state of climate affairs. The global temperature levels showed no significant increase in the past 16 years.
Even the strongest climate alarmists acknowledged that the computer models used for prediction failed to reflect observational data, in what scientists call the ‘global warming hiatus’.
The models’ error can be attributed predominantly to the false assumption that carbon dioxide drives temperatures. Instead, in both long and short terms, temperature changes first, and carbon dioxide follows.
This not only exposes the influence of a bias in climate change sciences but also counterfeits the false imagery of a deteriorating environment.
Weather always holds risks—storms large and small, droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold snaps have been with us throughout human history. But the climate itself has been anything but dangerous over the last 150 years, and the evidence is there for everyone to see from the polar ice caps to the paddy fields of India.
It is impossible to save a planet that is not dying, and it is a disgrace to lead people into false fears concerning climate change.
Vijay Jayaraj (M.Sc., Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, England), Research Associate for Developing Countries for the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation, lives in New Delhi, India.
Do the math. Follow the money. Look up the politics. The human-caused climate change emergency zealots amount to a 21st Century Doomsday Cult raising kool-aid stands on every street corner.
Vijay Jayaraj, it’s refreshing to see someone emerge from the from one of the institutions of indoctrination with his intellect unclouded by their propaganda. The best description of the “global warming” or “climate change” BS you will ever hear was penned long before the concept was ever given a thought, by one H.L. Mencken, as follows:
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
“Global warming,” er, I mean “Climate Change,” is merely the latest imaginary hobgoblin.
AGW,
The end to Mencken’s quote is also relevant: “The urge to save the world is almost always an urge to rule.”
Most modern universities recommend enslavement. Follow the grad funding and do what we say if you have want to have a successful career. I refrained from doing so.
Also wonderful is that Vijay knows how to write for the web. One to two sentences per paragraph. Rare to see.
He knows how to get people under the age of 40 to read. Remarkable.
“One to two sentences per paragraph.” has been my rule since the 1980’s. Having been schooled by bureaucrats spewing words like the proverbial fan.
My influential studies, reports, economic analyses, etc. were guided by that rule.
Thank you for your kind words. I had a lot of inputs from my colleagues regarding op ed writing. The Millennials don’t have time to read – so we have to grab their attention with short sentences.
Vijay: What you need to understand is the primary concern held by the so called environmentalists in Europe and North America is that there world has too many brown babies. Their solution to all of the world’s problems is to starve you to death. Resist them. Make India prosperous
This essay seems to harken to what P.J O’Rourke has opined on climate change:
“There’s not a ***damn thing you can do about it. Maybe climate change is a threat, and maybe climate change has been tarted up by climatologists trolling for research grant cash. It doesn’t matter. There are 1.3 billion people in China, and they all want a Buick. Actually, if you go more than a mile of two outside China’s big cities, the wants are more basic. People want a hot plate and a piece of methane-emitting cow to cook on it. They want a carbon-belching moped, and some CO2-disgorging heat in their houses in the winter. And air-conditioning wouldn’t be considered an imposition, if you’ve ever been to China in the summer.
Now, I want you to dress yourself in sturdy clothing and arm yourself however you like – a stiff shot of gin would be my recommendation – and I want you to go tell 1.3 billion Chinese they can never have a Buick.
Then, assuming the Sierra Club helicopter has rescued you in time, I want you to go tell a billion people in India the same thing.”
That is great. Can you give us a link?
It’s in several locations. Here is one:
http://exileinportales.blogspot.com/2013/09/pj-orourke-on-climate-change.html
The Chinese would like a Tesla, but want to build them theirselves (helped by all their coal fired powerstations). Thank you mr. Musk …….
. . . the climate itself has been anything but dangerous over the last 150 years . . .
Exactly. Which means that, given the historical fact of climate change, dangerous climate is inevitable. The more wealth squandered – and, worse, never developed – on account of the utterly delusional notion that that dangerous climate is caused and can be averted by human activity, the less will be available for coping with it when it arrives. What is truly appalling is that the delusion is being perpetrated by the richest societies, but the consequent economic degradation will result in the most climate harm being suffered by the poorest ones.
Thank you Mr Jayaraj for your perspective on the climate issue.
I’ve long thought that India has been very sceptical of CAGW because Prof. Udupi Rao was an astrophysicist and a galactic cosmic ray expert. As head of the Indian Space Program for many years he was one of the most prestigious scientists in the world. In 2011 he published a paper on the indirect solar effect on global temperature which demonstrates that nearly half the temperature rise last century was due to the Sun.
It’s a pity that western countries do not have scientists of such stature to advise their governments. Sadly Prof. Rao passed away in July of this year.
Indian government is against Climate Alarmism. But the Media is still sold out to global mainstream narrative. and a common man in India reads these newspapers which inform them that Climate Change is causing havoc. So most in India believe that we are in climate crisis. But they seldom think. My hometown, Madras for example, recorded its highest temperature in 2003. Since then the temperatures have not risen. A very real and practical way to refute global warming at local scales.
“It is impossible to save a planet that is not dying”. Still, we must try…
“… for the children.”
Leading people into false fears is a means used to achieve the goal of leading people.
The fewer the people, the easier to lead.
Good article and interesting perspective.
It would only take one country to declare that they have properly investigated the science around AGW and concluded that there is no threat. They can then declare that they will be happy to buy the coal and oil others don’t want and will not be moving to “renewable” generation or EVs. A large country like India is in a great position to do this. There will be a lot of howling from certain other countries but they will just have to be polite and say “Sorry, but with respect, the atmosphere does not work like that. We are going down the correct route as determined by the science. You are in error”. They may have to repeat it a few hundred times but as long as they stay firm with their decision this will be a useful catalyst.
It won’t take more than a month to get a few qualified scientists to write up all the true science and expose the faulty stuff. You don’t need more than half a dozen experts of the right flavour and about 20 pages of text should be enough. Pretty low cost.
If only this would happen.
The problem is that the rest of the politicians on the planet would then look silly at being conned and would talk them, or bribe them, out of publishing.
“Vijay Jayaraj … lives in New Delhi, India.”
And not in one of the other New Delhis in Bolivia, Vietnam, and Norway.
I live close to New Delhi IL.
No post office, just a sign on the highway, an old motel converted to rental flats, some trailers, and a bar.
So not a place anyone except you would ever mention.
LoL. Thats funny
Reblogged this on The GOLDEN RULE and commented:
Truth and commonsense.
Scientific evidence vs propaganda.
” The food production index (changes in the production of food crops in a given year relative to a base year) more than doubled, from 69.81 in 1990 to 145.1 in 2014. India’s total food grain production in the year 2015–16 recorded a massive 252.23 million tonnes, marginally higher than the previous year.
This should not surprise anyone who has a remote interest in the state of climate affairs. The global temperature levels showed no significant increase in the past 16 years. ”
Which newspapers or TV stations report this to the public? And why not???
Please see my observations on climate change in my letter to PM of India:
Open Letter to the Prime Minister of India:
Hypocrisy Thy Name!!!
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Hyderabad, 4rd October 2017
Respected Prime Minister,
1. Demonetization, GST & FM:
Sir, sometime back I brought to your kind notice some facts on demonetization and GST and as well on present FM. What I observed in those mails appear to be 100% correct from the views expressed by Yaswant Sinha, the former FM [he presented budget 7 times] from BJP and former FMs/PM of UPA Governments. Also joined in this BJP stalwart Arun Sourie Hon’ble Finance Minister [FM] Arun Jaitley without a scant respect for the former FM and BJP leader Yaswant Sinha, used very poor quality words “Job Applicant at 80s” instead of telling to public how he is going to correct the negative economy that India is facing currently. FM is in a hurry with little or no homework. Take the case of FM announcing at a public meeting that he is going to slash the GST slabs. They announce with demonetization unearthed three lakh crores black money to cover up poor actions!!!
The common talk of the town is, Sir, you are acting like an “Event Manager” rather than like a “Prime Minister of the Country with 125 crores population, which constitute more than 17% of global population. This is abundantly clear from the way your senior minister talk at national and international level — Also, it appears that FM is running the administration, which is dangerous to the nation in general and people in specific. There is an urgent need, Sir, to look in to this to save India from negative economy. Sir, your words are not reflecting in “action”.
2. Climate Change
Hon’ble External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj talk on Climate Change at UN meet as if no other issue is important to India, though the former MoEF&CC Minister after returning to India from Paris meet on Climate Change informed the parliament in December 2015 that out of 2181 Himalayan Glaciers around 86.6% presented no change. In fact, Sir, with our objections and rejections, IPCC withdrew and expressed apology for its recommendation that Himalayan Glaciers will melt by 2035 that too after receiving Noble Prize for such type of inaccurate report. In fact the co-recipient of Noble Prize Al Gore also withdrew his conclusion that Greenland ice will melt in five years – after 2012 the minimum level of Greenland ice each year is showing above the 2012 line only. From the satellite temperature data it is abundantly clear that no change in temperature – pause — before the two El Nino events [1997-98 and 2014-16]: (a) 1980-1997 and 2001-2015. The major ups and downs clearly reflect the influence of Southern Oscillation – El Nino (warm phase) and La Nina (cold phase) — and Volcano eruptions (cold phase). Natural variability, Sir, in the precipitation is the major player in Indian rainfall. Unfortunately, Sir, scientists with vested interests is misguiding the government on this vital issue that has major role in agriculture and water resources availability – floods and droughts.
3. Swachh Bharat Mission
We talk day in day out, Sir, the menace of stray dogs but we rarely talk on “silent killer”, the pollution from the garbage, leave other issues aside. More than 80% of the garbage generated in India is the major source of pollution-unhygienic conditions; and in addition causing flooding in urban areas by clogging the drains-nalas-tanks. We talk of, Sir, food production but we rarely look in to adulteration of food and wastage of food or for that matter polluted food. These are the major health hazard components. We talk of fund crunch but the governments spend lavishly to create vote bank politics. We waste public money on 100 smart cities without correcting existing cities. Take the recent example of Telangana Government’s “Dasara bonanza with public money for Singareni staff to wrest trade union elections in a day”. No state or central body questioned this un-ethical act of the Telangana State Government just before elections. Open defecation is common all over India, more particularly in urban areas, even though government claims the other way. Stray dogs act as cleaning act of such defecation. On the contrary the pet dogs became a menace to neighbourhood in terms of pee and creating loud noise – USA has a law to punish the owners of pet dogs but in India we don’t have law to control this menace.
With the urban floods, Swachh Bharat Mission comes to zero level. Governments are more interested in spending public money on festivals and thus creating environmental destruction but rarely bothered on disaster management except presenting show after the disaster. On the occasion of Gandhi [Sastry] Jayanthi, Sir, you advocated that “even a 1000 Gandhis and a lakh Modis and all the CMs will not succeed unless the mission is adopted by India’s 125 crore population”. This is not so, Sir, as more than 85% of population have no time for such missions as they have to earn their daily bread. Governments have created systems to carry out such missions but they failed to their services except collecting their salaries and other perks. CMs and PMs are doing little in this direction. This shows the type of governance we have. India needs good governance at both state and central levels. Unless that is achieved, such missions provide a means to waste public money. There are people with vested interests to create hype on one day and get fame through media, there it ends. Anna Hazare now – after three long years of rest – starts talking on a bill instead of doing something in that direction to stop corruption. May be he is looking for something else – may be for Bharat Ratna!!! Like several others-corrupt to core (late) politicians.
Let us do something and not waste time on preaching.
With kind regards,
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Formerly Chief Technical Advisor of WMO & Expert of FAO of United Nations
Fellow, Telangana Academy of Sciences
Convenor, Forum for a Sustainable Environment
Though this was published in the below given site, not responding now:
http://frontierweekly.com/reports/oct-17/12-10-17-Open%20Letter%20to%20the%20Prime%20Minister.html
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Thank you Dr. Reddy, Please mail me vijay@cornwallalliance.org
“It is impossible to save a planet that is not dying,…”
True, but it does have a use by date.
Anybody ever having worked in retail knows every “use by” date is artificially shortened. Regulators use it for “sell by” date.
“Since 2002, rainfall has increased by 1.34 mm per decade since 2002.”
I’m sure you’ll find it’s the wrong sort of rain. I bet it has too much, or not enough, CO2 dissolved in it. Or it falls in the wrong direction.
That’s 1.5 decades. As rainfall typically averages over 1000mm per year (and, sometimes, much more) in most places on the sub-continent, it seems a bit small to be a meaningful trend. I’ll keep the champagne on ice for another couple of decades.
What ice? Surely it will all be gone in a couple of decades… maybe you should drink that champagne now while it’s still cold. Brrrrr…..
I totally agree and have always felt this way. The world has gone mad. The whole thing has cost us a great deal of money. We. We’d sanity in government. We also need to develop alternative power for the future but it’s not viable financially yet.
Technologies of the future are unknown today, hoskingmusic. Current wind and solar electric generation technologies will not be among that mix. Technological dead ends.
The author seems to ignore the continuing drought conditions in southern India – e.g.
http://www.firstpost.com/india/south-indias-drought-part-1-five-states-face-a-severe-water-crisis-made-worse-by-the-onset-of-summer-3394636.html
and the floods, e.g. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/30/floods-hit-mumbai-worst-monsoon-years-kills-1200-across-south/
And the point is?
Thank you Everyone for your positive remarks and encouraging comments. Apologize for the delay in my response. India is against Climate Alarmism and our government will continue to be so.